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They are 5-2 and won last week. Brad Powers is 3-0 last three on his non-power 5.
I just skipped ahead and their best bet is: UNDER 23.5 1H PSU vs OSU -120 (they wud not take below 23)
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PSU @ Ohio State -4.5/46.5:
Powers starts out pod by saying PSU has still not played anyone. First game all time when both teams are 6-0 or better when they play. Two of the best scoring defenses. PSU allows 8 per game, OSU allows 9.7. It has been over 1 year since PSU failed to cover ATS…last time was against Wolverines in middle of October 2022. PSU wins by 36 points per game and 11 straight by 14+ and last week’s shut out of U Mass was largest shut-out victory since 1991. OSU wins by average of 26.3 5th best in country and won 39 of last 41 at home – lost in 2021 to Oregon and 2022 against #3 Michigan. PSU has a +10 turnover margin but with no big play potential, outside the Top 100 in that category.
Payne says he does not see a bunch of “down to down success by either offense and is why total was wacked down to 46.5.” PSU’s QB, Allar, should have been asked to do more before this game. Up to this point “he has not been asked to do anything above the beginner level.” He has thrown 8 passes beyond 18 yards against a schedule of defenses outside the Top 60 in efficiency. Allar is ranked 145th out of 156 QBs on average depth of targets. The wide receiver group is a question and he finds fault/questions with all, but notes Wallace, back from injury, did well last week. “Right now PSU is outside the Top 100 in explosive pass percentage, yards per pass, epa per pass and it is quietly impacting the ground game. While they are in Top 30 down to down run, the problem is there is no burst.” He list RBs and said they have fewer yards before 1st contact and after first contact this year vs last. “Is PSU going to into The Shoe with a phone booth offense against and succeed vs a Jim Noel’s defense? I don’t know.” Run blocking is another question for PSU, it’s ok but they have played lower level opponents. “If PSU can average 4 yds a carry they have a chance to stay within this number [ I noticed he did not say ‘win’, but ‘stay within this number’], but if Allar is asked to do something he has not been asked to do, it could be trouble.” OSU does not have elite pass rusher but they are physical along the D line. “To me you’re not facing an elite PSU O line.”
OSU ranks 3rd in BIG in scoring, 20th nationally. They are 1st in total offense and passing and 9th in the run game in the conference, 92nd overall in FBS. Injuries been a problem. Dallas Hayden carried the day last week against Purdue. Powers says the OSU offense starts with who is available. Henderson, Williams and Egbuka were all out last week and Day is hopeful they will be back this week. Powers was impressed with new O motion and Hayden. You’d want a guy like Henderson in a game like this. Best wide receiver in country with Harrison, how often can he get the ball? A freshman, Tate, showed well last week. Powers most impressed this year in exceeding expectations is the TE Stover - top 5 in country and top graded in country last week. “To me it comes down to 2 things: (1) Kyle McCord. Good grading but to my eyes I still don’t see it – call me crazy but receivers have to contort to catch it and they make him look better. Harrison is not hit in stride… maybe I have too much expectations…ND D back dropped an interception on the drive agst them to win the game. What’s the narrative if that game was a loss? I still have my concerns. (2) Offensive Lin. To me Fryer and Jones grade out well, but OSU cannot run the ball consistently, basic counting stats confirm this.” Only running for 135 yards a game, cannot run against MD, 4.3 yds per carry is lowest by Buckeyes in 2 decades. This will be best D they have faced, or right there with ND who they struggled against. He says PSU cannot control “who you play, but you can control how you play. #1 in success rate, #1 in epa per play.” I found this remarkable, 15 PSU defense players have a sack already. I think the PSU D is good, I like Manny Diaz as D coordinator but then Powers goes over their opponents and he cannot say how good PSU defense really is. “We will find out on Saturday.” Despite some questions with OSU, this is still the best O, by far, that PSU has faced. I would try to test PSU defense, take some shots downfield with Harrison and see what PSU 2dary can do. I’d get aggressive early. I have no definitive answer to how good they are. Michigan ran for over 400 yds last year agst PSU and literally pummeled them play after play. But, I am not sure Buckeyes will truly expose them, but it’s a concern when PSU has played no good offenses, the best being WVa so far."
Clemson @ Miami +3.5/48.5
The ACC’s top defense (Clemson) vs ACC’s top offense looking at yards per game standpoint. Clemson has won 4 straight vs Miami last loss was 2010 against Miami. In the 4 wins they outscored Miami 178-30. Miami looking for 1st conference home win under Cristobal and need a win to avoid 1st 0-3 start in conference play in program history. Injuries for Clemson are improved if you trust Dabo has said “everyone will be available in some capacity [Wiggins, Sheridan Jones and Antonio Williams. Clemson has avgd only 20 points per game. Versus Wake Forest Klubnick had only 130 yards passing and Shipley avged only less than 5 yards per carry. They are still looking for their first 300 yard passing game and 70%+ completion outing.
Miami defense has edge over Clemson offense per Powers. Powers reports that a sideline reporter in Duke game said he did not see any difference in skill/size btw Clemson and Duke, and that has borne out. He thinks Klubnick has not improved from Fro. To Soph performance. #56 in QBR. He’s an average QB to me. “I like Shipley and Maffa, they’re good , they’re not great at taking over a ballgame and winning it for ya.” The most concerning thing are wide receivers and Duke game was a hint when they relied on 3 star recruit and freshman Tyler Brown. Don’t see explosiveness from Collins and Antonio Williams has been a disappointment and he has not taken jump from freshman to sophomore. Miami’s weakness is at corner and I am not sure Clemson can take advantage of it. “To me not only are the Jimmy’s and Joe’s not there [for Tigers] we expected a lot from Garrett Riley [coordinator] and the X’s and O’s not lived up to expectations.” You’d expect this offense to take a step against Wake but they lost 2 fumbles, missed a fg, finished with just 338 yards [lowest of season] “I don’t see it from this Clemson offense and I don’t think we are going to see it on Saturday night.” On the other side, I have seen something from Miami, especially when they are playing the Bethune Cookman’s. Safties, Williams and Kichens very good, and a deep rotation on defensive line, Baine kid is a good looking true freshman D End. Corners are questionable and exposed some by A&M and Duke but I am not sure Clemson is capable of doing so. Edge to Hurricanes D over Clemson O.
Payne evaluates Miami O vs Clemson D. Van Dyke leads ACC in completion %, yards per attempt, passing efficiency and tied with 16 passing TDs. In their last 2 games, 5 TDs and 5 Ints and completed less than 70% of passes and a sub 90 QBR. Payne says Van Dyke dealing with injury, leg fully wrapped at Monday practice. Cristobal says he’s playing and last year in similar spot vs FSU Van Dyke played “at 60%.” “I am told Van Dyke is playing with three torn ligaments in his throwing hand. And, apparently that sounds worse than it actually is but if you’re looking for confirmation go to the 10:42 mark of 3rd qtr of last week’s UNC game and on the fumble snap you’ll see black tape over a couple digits there.” Specific to the match-up this is Miami’s toughest test. This is a TOP 10 Clemson passing defense that has had 2 weeks to prepare. Nate Wiggins should be back and warmed up before the Wake game. “The range of opinions among pro bettors on the Miami is just massive. What’s bizarre is I don’t think anybody upgraded Miami more than Brad and I year ove year coming into the season and suddenly I am trying to figure out where the sudden discrepancy comes from.” We learn more about Miami’s offense in this game, more than any other. Not a single Miami O lineman versus A&M graded out above replacement level in run blocking. Running backs had 89 yards on 22 carries which included 4 explosives. Which means 82% of run plays went for total of 34 yards. They cud not run the ball versus GaTech. Van Dyke “has a Howitzer and accuracy continues to improve….the dude is awesome if he knows where to go and does not have to think.” Payne likes Miami O coordinator, Dawson and his schemes and routes, brags on Van Dyke TD to George last week, but that was only a 1 read throw. He then says if Van Dyke has to go thru progressions ‘he’s a shell of himself.’ He thinks Ds are starting to catch on. Payne loves Restrepo, but “he’s easier to find than Deion Sanders, he’s in the slot on 90% of snaps.” [ as a Restrepo yds bettor last week I confirm this…lucky to win that wager]. Every single receiver essentially has designated areas where they get the ball. TEs have only 5 catches all season. Running backs are nothing more than an afterthought in the pass game. Not a ton of diversity on the Miami O. 3 game losing streak is on the line and Miami has had a 3 game losing streak in 12 of last 17 seasons. Miami has not won ACC game at home with Cristobal era. “To me this is Cristobal’s most important game to date, I wish I liked Clemson’s offense, that’s the problem for me here.”
Duke @ FSU . (I am showing Duke +14.5 and 49.5 but they forgot to give the lines)
3rd meeting btw ranked FSU & Duke teams, 1st since 2013. In both prior games FSU boat raced Duke by avg of 39 points and scoring an avg of 52 points. Duke’s #16 ranking highest since 1994 and have started 5-1 or better for first time since 2018 but they finished 8-5 in Daniel Jones Sr yr. FSU is 21-0 agst Duke. FSU has scored 40+ in 18 of the 21 games and have won by 20+ in 19 of those games. Only game close was 2017 where FSU won 17-10. FSU has 3rd longest current win streak in FBS with and is seeking first 7-0 start since 2014 with Jaemis Winston. FSU 3 wins at home this year all by 21+.
Payne says he does not know if Riley Leonard is playing [later in podcast he updated with new info saying looks like Leonard may be playing]. He thinks the market is saying Leonard is not playing with this line of +14. He goes on to say Duke will play RPO game with Belin. Can Duke run the ball and slow down the game while trying to connect on the occasional deep shot? [the whole game analysis here may be out the window if Leonard playing]. FSU is improving agst the run. They have been trying to rest/substitute their D front to keep them healthy…looking at snap counts for the starters. FSU has a new D back coach and he’s good/liked. Corners more aggressive man coverage but are outside the Top 75 in explosive pass defense. Duke needs to run, keep game at 3rd and short and hit some explosive passes. Payne doubts whether they can do this. 3rd consecutive week FSU will face an RPO O with mobile QB and a ground game. Doubt Duke can succeed agst FSU.
Duke has allowed 9.8 points per game on defense, 4th fewest in FBS and 2d fewest of any Duke team in 50 seasons. Pass defense is best in ACC but they have only faced Clemson, Lafayette, Northwestern, UCONN, Notre Dame and NCST. Powers when asked whether Duke can slow down FSU passing game says: “In a word, No.” Only question he has is whether FSU can be consistent. Duke defense does not have 4 & 5 star players. He said they are experienced together and great scheme under Elko. The counting stats say that are one of better defense in country but analytics say they are “good, not great.” "Remember, Clemson moved the football vs Duke and it was Clemson’s RZ issues and mistakes that stopped their scoring. Notre Dame game had injured wide receivers, and they are “average” at that position to begin with. I have some doubts about how good Duke is. I know Elko is good, but reality is this is best O Duke D has faced. ND and Clemson were able to run the ball." Powers says FSU O is not consistent, outside of Coleman who plays like 1st team All-American at wideout and punt returns. Norvell is one of better Xs & Os coaches in country and he thinks they will use TE (Bell) agst Duke defense, like ND’s tight end Mitchell Evans hurt Duke. FSU appears healthy in this game, including Wilson at receiver and Harris on O line. O line has good depth and should be fresh. FSU has the upper hand and Jordan Travis is capable of having a breakout game. “I think FSU can pounce on them in this game.” If Riley Leonard is out the line will go up. “This line of +14 says he is doubtful.” Powers makes Leonard worth 6 points to the line.
UTSA @ FAU +3.5/60.
Powers taking FAU and says they are a “live underdog.” The FAU counting stats are better in yds per play margin, yds per game margin, scoring margin, a little tougher schedule. He acknowledges UTSA now has Harris at QB “But to me let’s look about what UTSA has done since he returned. Looks good bc nice O performances against Temple and UAB, covering in both games. But man, dive into them. They were outgained by Temple…UAB outgained UTSA, it really came down to turnovers in both games, UTSA was +2 in both.” He expects the offense to continue scoring after getting 56 agst SFla and defense is getting pressure on QBs. Hermann as home dog and better defense. “I like FAU quite a bit here at +3.5, although the market leaned toward UTSA early in the week, I disagree.” Furhman says FAU has good skill players – receiver included. Powers started season negative on FAU but he has changed.
Utah @ USC -7/56
Utah seeking their first win against a ranked USC team on the road. Utah has a 3 game win streak against USC, the last loss in 2020. USC seeking first 5-0 start in PAC games since 2020 and is 11-0 at home under Riley avging FBS best 48.9 points per game. Coming in off their worst margin defeat as an AP Top 10 team since 1995 where they also lost at Notre Dame by 28 points. USC was -5 in T.O. margin at N.D. last week.
Bryce Barnes in at QB for Utah. Powers “not totally confident on either side.” Weakness vs Weakness with Utah O vs USC D. Note: ND started drives at USC 12, 2 , 50 and 14 last week. Safeties led team in tackles last week – not a good sign. USC has been able to get pressure prior to last week when they had zero pressures. Utah 90th in O success, #117 in epa per play, #132 in explosives. Utah’s Banes probably played his best game last week – not saying much. Utah was 5 of 6 in RZ getting points but were only 1 of 3 in prior 2 games combined. Utah used Vake, a safety, at running back last week with some success avging 10.5 yds per carry and a TD. Utah had 300 yards rushing, can they do it agst USC? They may have success since Stanford, Colorado and AZ did. How many guys will USC put in the box, since Utah has nothing at WR or TE? Utah’s top TE has been ruled out for season. “I don’t see it” in re Utah receiving/passing. Parks at receiver got a TD in 1st game and has less than 100 yards since that time. Utah will run the ball and will not keep pace “as far as I’m concerned” unless they can get 200 yards and maybe keep it close.
USC have scored 30+ in every home game under Riley, lowest output was a 30-14 win vs Wazzu. USC leads PAC and 2nd in FBS with 50 plays of 20+ yds this season. (Utah is LAST in the same category). Utah D counting stats are good but may have a problem 1H because of a “trach” targeting call against Bishop agst Cal. Payne says the game starts with Caleb and he says “I have seen a ton of bad habits pop up this season. He’s in love with lazy throws, no step & then side arm is a patented move [even I have noticed this fwiw], incessantly throwing off the back foot, rarely is he ever set when he throws…if you look he’s rarely playing within structure [cocky attitude, again my opinion]. He has 13 turnover worthy plays through 7 games and had only 11 through 14 games last season. Lazy, sloppy football out there.” Lincoln Riley has said this week: “We need to get back to playing 11 man football” in what Payne suggest is a shot at Williams. Riley sees that Caleb is basically playing ‘back yard football.’ Caleb can get away with it when he plays lower competition but cannot against better teams like ND. “If Caleb plays within structure he plays better than last year…but under pressure where he has fallen off a cliff (gave stats), all 13 of his turnover worthy plays is when he’s pressured and had only 4 last year. Part of problem is the O line….On paper (emphasized) Utah’s front looks like it could give USC a world of trouble….in totality Utah D allows 30% of opponent’s plays to grade successful, metrically Utah can get after the QB, they can stop the run and they can play the pass. I am interested to see what it looks like in this match-up b/c Utah has not played a soul on offense….avg opponents’ Os have rank of 59.” Payne analyzes the weaknesses of the QBs USC defense has faced and says they still rank outside Top 100 in explosive plays allowed. He is concerned Utah’s D numbers may not be as good away from home against a good offense. “It is very clear that sharp bettors wanted to buy USC at a depressed price, line was -4 and now at key number of -7….Riley has called out his offense, Utah defense may be a little overrated, and USC D, which is not very good, is fighting an offense in it’s own weight class and that’s how we’ve had the move from -4 to -7.”
Tenny @ BAMA -8.5/48.5 to 49
Last year VOLS won 52-49 snapping a 15 game series losing streak and they did so as more than a TD underdog. VOLS have lost 27 straight away games at AP ranked Top 15 teams. Last win in such a case was in 2006 when Vols beat #10 GA. Bama won 15 straight home games vs SEC opponents, 33-1 in past 34. Tide been a good ATS bet as TD favorite in these type of spots.
Payne says “This is match-up versus price. Does not surprise me that the spots that opened -10 got completely wiped out or shock me at places you cud buy to the key affordably got wiped out. Now, you’re sitting at 7.5-8 range, our core # was 7….but I just don’t see a path for points with this version of Vols offense.” He thinks even with last week’s Vols win they produced a disappointing offense. Milton (stats given) not good…they had 0% explosives pass rate last week..38% down to down pass success rate…Bama has Moore returning to 2dary and it gets even tougher for Vols. Vols rush game was better but doesn’t know if they can run on Bama who is Top 20 agst run. Last week Vols had to show up with 2 weeks to prepare and they did not materialize on offense. Don’t see Vol offense performing relative to expectation, they are in the 2nd hostile environment all season (Swamp) and only way they stay within the number is ugly game up, run effectively and their D keeps them in the game.
Bama has scored exactly 24 in each of last 3 home games and scored 24 or fewer just 3 times in last 35 home games previously. Bama O line been a problem in allowing sacks. Powers gives “monster edge” to Vol defense with their pass rush against Bama passing offense. Milroe been sacked at least 4 times in 5 consecutive games, ties FBS record in last 20 seasons. Bama offense is mediocre, #58 yds per play, #87 in yards per game, #58 in points per game. That being said, Bama should have simple game plan. Give Milroe just simple one-two reads and do not hold ball…take deep shots (#3 in yards per attempt). Expect a run heavy Bama game, like old days. Vols defense has improved…pass rush with James Pierce highest graded defender by PFF last week and a 26.8% pressure rate this year leading FBS. Tyler Barron has 5 sacks. He cites a corner, Hadden, doing well. VOL D #4 in success rate, #10 in epa per play and they have the edge here but if Bama’s game plan is fewer passes, fewer reads and rely on Milroe in run game, pathway for Bama success. Kinda comparing Bama's way to success was same as Gators success agst Vols.
They are 5-2 and won last week. Brad Powers is 3-0 last three on his non-power 5.
I just skipped ahead and their best bet is: UNDER 23.5 1H PSU vs OSU -120 (they wud not take below 23)
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PSU @ Ohio State -4.5/46.5:
Powers starts out pod by saying PSU has still not played anyone. First game all time when both teams are 6-0 or better when they play. Two of the best scoring defenses. PSU allows 8 per game, OSU allows 9.7. It has been over 1 year since PSU failed to cover ATS…last time was against Wolverines in middle of October 2022. PSU wins by 36 points per game and 11 straight by 14+ and last week’s shut out of U Mass was largest shut-out victory since 1991. OSU wins by average of 26.3 5th best in country and won 39 of last 41 at home – lost in 2021 to Oregon and 2022 against #3 Michigan. PSU has a +10 turnover margin but with no big play potential, outside the Top 100 in that category.
Payne says he does not see a bunch of “down to down success by either offense and is why total was wacked down to 46.5.” PSU’s QB, Allar, should have been asked to do more before this game. Up to this point “he has not been asked to do anything above the beginner level.” He has thrown 8 passes beyond 18 yards against a schedule of defenses outside the Top 60 in efficiency. Allar is ranked 145th out of 156 QBs on average depth of targets. The wide receiver group is a question and he finds fault/questions with all, but notes Wallace, back from injury, did well last week. “Right now PSU is outside the Top 100 in explosive pass percentage, yards per pass, epa per pass and it is quietly impacting the ground game. While they are in Top 30 down to down run, the problem is there is no burst.” He list RBs and said they have fewer yards before 1st contact and after first contact this year vs last. “Is PSU going to into The Shoe with a phone booth offense against and succeed vs a Jim Noel’s defense? I don’t know.” Run blocking is another question for PSU, it’s ok but they have played lower level opponents. “If PSU can average 4 yds a carry they have a chance to stay within this number [ I noticed he did not say ‘win’, but ‘stay within this number’], but if Allar is asked to do something he has not been asked to do, it could be trouble.” OSU does not have elite pass rusher but they are physical along the D line. “To me you’re not facing an elite PSU O line.”
OSU ranks 3rd in BIG in scoring, 20th nationally. They are 1st in total offense and passing and 9th in the run game in the conference, 92nd overall in FBS. Injuries been a problem. Dallas Hayden carried the day last week against Purdue. Powers says the OSU offense starts with who is available. Henderson, Williams and Egbuka were all out last week and Day is hopeful they will be back this week. Powers was impressed with new O motion and Hayden. You’d want a guy like Henderson in a game like this. Best wide receiver in country with Harrison, how often can he get the ball? A freshman, Tate, showed well last week. Powers most impressed this year in exceeding expectations is the TE Stover - top 5 in country and top graded in country last week. “To me it comes down to 2 things: (1) Kyle McCord. Good grading but to my eyes I still don’t see it – call me crazy but receivers have to contort to catch it and they make him look better. Harrison is not hit in stride… maybe I have too much expectations…ND D back dropped an interception on the drive agst them to win the game. What’s the narrative if that game was a loss? I still have my concerns. (2) Offensive Lin. To me Fryer and Jones grade out well, but OSU cannot run the ball consistently, basic counting stats confirm this.” Only running for 135 yards a game, cannot run against MD, 4.3 yds per carry is lowest by Buckeyes in 2 decades. This will be best D they have faced, or right there with ND who they struggled against. He says PSU cannot control “who you play, but you can control how you play. #1 in success rate, #1 in epa per play.” I found this remarkable, 15 PSU defense players have a sack already. I think the PSU D is good, I like Manny Diaz as D coordinator but then Powers goes over their opponents and he cannot say how good PSU defense really is. “We will find out on Saturday.” Despite some questions with OSU, this is still the best O, by far, that PSU has faced. I would try to test PSU defense, take some shots downfield with Harrison and see what PSU 2dary can do. I’d get aggressive early. I have no definitive answer to how good they are. Michigan ran for over 400 yds last year agst PSU and literally pummeled them play after play. But, I am not sure Buckeyes will truly expose them, but it’s a concern when PSU has played no good offenses, the best being WVa so far."
Clemson @ Miami +3.5/48.5
The ACC’s top defense (Clemson) vs ACC’s top offense looking at yards per game standpoint. Clemson has won 4 straight vs Miami last loss was 2010 against Miami. In the 4 wins they outscored Miami 178-30. Miami looking for 1st conference home win under Cristobal and need a win to avoid 1st 0-3 start in conference play in program history. Injuries for Clemson are improved if you trust Dabo has said “everyone will be available in some capacity [Wiggins, Sheridan Jones and Antonio Williams. Clemson has avgd only 20 points per game. Versus Wake Forest Klubnick had only 130 yards passing and Shipley avged only less than 5 yards per carry. They are still looking for their first 300 yard passing game and 70%+ completion outing.
Miami defense has edge over Clemson offense per Powers. Powers reports that a sideline reporter in Duke game said he did not see any difference in skill/size btw Clemson and Duke, and that has borne out. He thinks Klubnick has not improved from Fro. To Soph performance. #56 in QBR. He’s an average QB to me. “I like Shipley and Maffa, they’re good , they’re not great at taking over a ballgame and winning it for ya.” The most concerning thing are wide receivers and Duke game was a hint when they relied on 3 star recruit and freshman Tyler Brown. Don’t see explosiveness from Collins and Antonio Williams has been a disappointment and he has not taken jump from freshman to sophomore. Miami’s weakness is at corner and I am not sure Clemson can take advantage of it. “To me not only are the Jimmy’s and Joe’s not there [for Tigers] we expected a lot from Garrett Riley [coordinator] and the X’s and O’s not lived up to expectations.” You’d expect this offense to take a step against Wake but they lost 2 fumbles, missed a fg, finished with just 338 yards [lowest of season] “I don’t see it from this Clemson offense and I don’t think we are going to see it on Saturday night.” On the other side, I have seen something from Miami, especially when they are playing the Bethune Cookman’s. Safties, Williams and Kichens very good, and a deep rotation on defensive line, Baine kid is a good looking true freshman D End. Corners are questionable and exposed some by A&M and Duke but I am not sure Clemson is capable of doing so. Edge to Hurricanes D over Clemson O.
Payne evaluates Miami O vs Clemson D. Van Dyke leads ACC in completion %, yards per attempt, passing efficiency and tied with 16 passing TDs. In their last 2 games, 5 TDs and 5 Ints and completed less than 70% of passes and a sub 90 QBR. Payne says Van Dyke dealing with injury, leg fully wrapped at Monday practice. Cristobal says he’s playing and last year in similar spot vs FSU Van Dyke played “at 60%.” “I am told Van Dyke is playing with three torn ligaments in his throwing hand. And, apparently that sounds worse than it actually is but if you’re looking for confirmation go to the 10:42 mark of 3rd qtr of last week’s UNC game and on the fumble snap you’ll see black tape over a couple digits there.” Specific to the match-up this is Miami’s toughest test. This is a TOP 10 Clemson passing defense that has had 2 weeks to prepare. Nate Wiggins should be back and warmed up before the Wake game. “The range of opinions among pro bettors on the Miami is just massive. What’s bizarre is I don’t think anybody upgraded Miami more than Brad and I year ove year coming into the season and suddenly I am trying to figure out where the sudden discrepancy comes from.” We learn more about Miami’s offense in this game, more than any other. Not a single Miami O lineman versus A&M graded out above replacement level in run blocking. Running backs had 89 yards on 22 carries which included 4 explosives. Which means 82% of run plays went for total of 34 yards. They cud not run the ball versus GaTech. Van Dyke “has a Howitzer and accuracy continues to improve….the dude is awesome if he knows where to go and does not have to think.” Payne likes Miami O coordinator, Dawson and his schemes and routes, brags on Van Dyke TD to George last week, but that was only a 1 read throw. He then says if Van Dyke has to go thru progressions ‘he’s a shell of himself.’ He thinks Ds are starting to catch on. Payne loves Restrepo, but “he’s easier to find than Deion Sanders, he’s in the slot on 90% of snaps.” [ as a Restrepo yds bettor last week I confirm this…lucky to win that wager]. Every single receiver essentially has designated areas where they get the ball. TEs have only 5 catches all season. Running backs are nothing more than an afterthought in the pass game. Not a ton of diversity on the Miami O. 3 game losing streak is on the line and Miami has had a 3 game losing streak in 12 of last 17 seasons. Miami has not won ACC game at home with Cristobal era. “To me this is Cristobal’s most important game to date, I wish I liked Clemson’s offense, that’s the problem for me here.”
Duke @ FSU . (I am showing Duke +14.5 and 49.5 but they forgot to give the lines)
3rd meeting btw ranked FSU & Duke teams, 1st since 2013. In both prior games FSU boat raced Duke by avg of 39 points and scoring an avg of 52 points. Duke’s #16 ranking highest since 1994 and have started 5-1 or better for first time since 2018 but they finished 8-5 in Daniel Jones Sr yr. FSU is 21-0 agst Duke. FSU has scored 40+ in 18 of the 21 games and have won by 20+ in 19 of those games. Only game close was 2017 where FSU won 17-10. FSU has 3rd longest current win streak in FBS with and is seeking first 7-0 start since 2014 with Jaemis Winston. FSU 3 wins at home this year all by 21+.
Payne says he does not know if Riley Leonard is playing [later in podcast he updated with new info saying looks like Leonard may be playing]. He thinks the market is saying Leonard is not playing with this line of +14. He goes on to say Duke will play RPO game with Belin. Can Duke run the ball and slow down the game while trying to connect on the occasional deep shot? [the whole game analysis here may be out the window if Leonard playing]. FSU is improving agst the run. They have been trying to rest/substitute their D front to keep them healthy…looking at snap counts for the starters. FSU has a new D back coach and he’s good/liked. Corners more aggressive man coverage but are outside the Top 75 in explosive pass defense. Duke needs to run, keep game at 3rd and short and hit some explosive passes. Payne doubts whether they can do this. 3rd consecutive week FSU will face an RPO O with mobile QB and a ground game. Doubt Duke can succeed agst FSU.
Duke has allowed 9.8 points per game on defense, 4th fewest in FBS and 2d fewest of any Duke team in 50 seasons. Pass defense is best in ACC but they have only faced Clemson, Lafayette, Northwestern, UCONN, Notre Dame and NCST. Powers when asked whether Duke can slow down FSU passing game says: “In a word, No.” Only question he has is whether FSU can be consistent. Duke defense does not have 4 & 5 star players. He said they are experienced together and great scheme under Elko. The counting stats say that are one of better defense in country but analytics say they are “good, not great.” "Remember, Clemson moved the football vs Duke and it was Clemson’s RZ issues and mistakes that stopped their scoring. Notre Dame game had injured wide receivers, and they are “average” at that position to begin with. I have some doubts about how good Duke is. I know Elko is good, but reality is this is best O Duke D has faced. ND and Clemson were able to run the ball." Powers says FSU O is not consistent, outside of Coleman who plays like 1st team All-American at wideout and punt returns. Norvell is one of better Xs & Os coaches in country and he thinks they will use TE (Bell) agst Duke defense, like ND’s tight end Mitchell Evans hurt Duke. FSU appears healthy in this game, including Wilson at receiver and Harris on O line. O line has good depth and should be fresh. FSU has the upper hand and Jordan Travis is capable of having a breakout game. “I think FSU can pounce on them in this game.” If Riley Leonard is out the line will go up. “This line of +14 says he is doubtful.” Powers makes Leonard worth 6 points to the line.
UTSA @ FAU +3.5/60.
Powers taking FAU and says they are a “live underdog.” The FAU counting stats are better in yds per play margin, yds per game margin, scoring margin, a little tougher schedule. He acknowledges UTSA now has Harris at QB “But to me let’s look about what UTSA has done since he returned. Looks good bc nice O performances against Temple and UAB, covering in both games. But man, dive into them. They were outgained by Temple…UAB outgained UTSA, it really came down to turnovers in both games, UTSA was +2 in both.” He expects the offense to continue scoring after getting 56 agst SFla and defense is getting pressure on QBs. Hermann as home dog and better defense. “I like FAU quite a bit here at +3.5, although the market leaned toward UTSA early in the week, I disagree.” Furhman says FAU has good skill players – receiver included. Powers started season negative on FAU but he has changed.
Utah @ USC -7/56
Utah seeking their first win against a ranked USC team on the road. Utah has a 3 game win streak against USC, the last loss in 2020. USC seeking first 5-0 start in PAC games since 2020 and is 11-0 at home under Riley avging FBS best 48.9 points per game. Coming in off their worst margin defeat as an AP Top 10 team since 1995 where they also lost at Notre Dame by 28 points. USC was -5 in T.O. margin at N.D. last week.
Bryce Barnes in at QB for Utah. Powers “not totally confident on either side.” Weakness vs Weakness with Utah O vs USC D. Note: ND started drives at USC 12, 2 , 50 and 14 last week. Safeties led team in tackles last week – not a good sign. USC has been able to get pressure prior to last week when they had zero pressures. Utah 90th in O success, #117 in epa per play, #132 in explosives. Utah’s Banes probably played his best game last week – not saying much. Utah was 5 of 6 in RZ getting points but were only 1 of 3 in prior 2 games combined. Utah used Vake, a safety, at running back last week with some success avging 10.5 yds per carry and a TD. Utah had 300 yards rushing, can they do it agst USC? They may have success since Stanford, Colorado and AZ did. How many guys will USC put in the box, since Utah has nothing at WR or TE? Utah’s top TE has been ruled out for season. “I don’t see it” in re Utah receiving/passing. Parks at receiver got a TD in 1st game and has less than 100 yards since that time. Utah will run the ball and will not keep pace “as far as I’m concerned” unless they can get 200 yards and maybe keep it close.
USC have scored 30+ in every home game under Riley, lowest output was a 30-14 win vs Wazzu. USC leads PAC and 2nd in FBS with 50 plays of 20+ yds this season. (Utah is LAST in the same category). Utah D counting stats are good but may have a problem 1H because of a “trach” targeting call against Bishop agst Cal. Payne says the game starts with Caleb and he says “I have seen a ton of bad habits pop up this season. He’s in love with lazy throws, no step & then side arm is a patented move [even I have noticed this fwiw], incessantly throwing off the back foot, rarely is he ever set when he throws…if you look he’s rarely playing within structure [cocky attitude, again my opinion]. He has 13 turnover worthy plays through 7 games and had only 11 through 14 games last season. Lazy, sloppy football out there.” Lincoln Riley has said this week: “We need to get back to playing 11 man football” in what Payne suggest is a shot at Williams. Riley sees that Caleb is basically playing ‘back yard football.’ Caleb can get away with it when he plays lower competition but cannot against better teams like ND. “If Caleb plays within structure he plays better than last year…but under pressure where he has fallen off a cliff (gave stats), all 13 of his turnover worthy plays is when he’s pressured and had only 4 last year. Part of problem is the O line….On paper (emphasized) Utah’s front looks like it could give USC a world of trouble….in totality Utah D allows 30% of opponent’s plays to grade successful, metrically Utah can get after the QB, they can stop the run and they can play the pass. I am interested to see what it looks like in this match-up b/c Utah has not played a soul on offense….avg opponents’ Os have rank of 59.” Payne analyzes the weaknesses of the QBs USC defense has faced and says they still rank outside Top 100 in explosive plays allowed. He is concerned Utah’s D numbers may not be as good away from home against a good offense. “It is very clear that sharp bettors wanted to buy USC at a depressed price, line was -4 and now at key number of -7….Riley has called out his offense, Utah defense may be a little overrated, and USC D, which is not very good, is fighting an offense in it’s own weight class and that’s how we’ve had the move from -4 to -7.”
Tenny @ BAMA -8.5/48.5 to 49
Last year VOLS won 52-49 snapping a 15 game series losing streak and they did so as more than a TD underdog. VOLS have lost 27 straight away games at AP ranked Top 15 teams. Last win in such a case was in 2006 when Vols beat #10 GA. Bama won 15 straight home games vs SEC opponents, 33-1 in past 34. Tide been a good ATS bet as TD favorite in these type of spots.
Payne says “This is match-up versus price. Does not surprise me that the spots that opened -10 got completely wiped out or shock me at places you cud buy to the key affordably got wiped out. Now, you’re sitting at 7.5-8 range, our core # was 7….but I just don’t see a path for points with this version of Vols offense.” He thinks even with last week’s Vols win they produced a disappointing offense. Milton (stats given) not good…they had 0% explosives pass rate last week..38% down to down pass success rate…Bama has Moore returning to 2dary and it gets even tougher for Vols. Vols rush game was better but doesn’t know if they can run on Bama who is Top 20 agst run. Last week Vols had to show up with 2 weeks to prepare and they did not materialize on offense. Don’t see Vol offense performing relative to expectation, they are in the 2nd hostile environment all season (Swamp) and only way they stay within the number is ugly game up, run effectively and their D keeps them in the game.
Bama has scored exactly 24 in each of last 3 home games and scored 24 or fewer just 3 times in last 35 home games previously. Bama O line been a problem in allowing sacks. Powers gives “monster edge” to Vol defense with their pass rush against Bama passing offense. Milroe been sacked at least 4 times in 5 consecutive games, ties FBS record in last 20 seasons. Bama offense is mediocre, #58 yds per play, #87 in yards per game, #58 in points per game. That being said, Bama should have simple game plan. Give Milroe just simple one-two reads and do not hold ball…take deep shots (#3 in yards per attempt). Expect a run heavy Bama game, like old days. Vols defense has improved…pass rush with James Pierce highest graded defender by PFF last week and a 26.8% pressure rate this year leading FBS. Tyler Barron has 5 sacks. He cites a corner, Hadden, doing well. VOL D #4 in success rate, #10 in epa per play and they have the edge here but if Bama’s game plan is fewer passes, fewer reads and rely on Milroe in run game, pathway for Bama success. Kinda comparing Bama's way to success was same as Gators success agst Vols.
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