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Busy on projects at the homestead. Just got a quick listen and this is best I can do. Apologies.
Will not be around on the weekend and will not watch a single game.
Best Bet: Tennessee ML -115 LOSE BIGLY
Ole Miss @ GA-11
Ole Miss has balanced offense. Judkins is very good and three excellent receivers, one of whom was ranked #1 receiver last week by PFF. They are in top 20 in epa per run and pass. Ole Miss is not good on 3rd and 4th down. In fact, on the road only 2 teams, Hawaii and Sam Houston, rank lower in third down success. Ole Miss scores only an avg of 25 points on the road. GA defense is not as good as last year, but that is hard to do. They will be missing a starting linebacker who is out. They have been susceptible to the running game on a few occasions – very few as I recall. GA is starting to get pressure on the QB that they did not show early in season. Slight edge to GA here.
Ole Miss defense is “average.” GA offence will be able to expose the Old Miss secondary. The best ‘data point’ for Ole Miss defense was last week vs A&M, which had 4 straight drives of 75+ yards without their best talent available. GA’s Bowers has completion rate up there with Nix. GA offense will be difficult for this defense to stop.
Bottom line, no enthusiasm or real path found for Ole Miss to win this game. I sensed they think that GA can cover the -11 line.
Michigan @ Penn State +4.5
Michigan has won all games by 24+. Very critical of their SOS. Franklin has bad record agst Michigan & Ohio State and against Top 10 teams since at Vandy to present.
Michigan has played nobody they repeat. Powers has some concerns re the MI offense but they have good counting stats. But, the running backs, Corum and Edwards, are not nearly as good as last year. And attributes more passing this year on lack of run success. The PSU defense is highly rated and Michigan has begun to allow more sacks. The edge would go to PSU D…but he cannot get last year’s ass whooping out of his mind
PSU scores 30 against everyone except OSU. Michigan defense is good but have weak SOS. Still, Payne thinks they are good and Allar and PSU tell you they cannot do this vs Wolverines. He “does not see a world where PSU can sustain drives.” He thinks a fairer line wud be 5.5. He also sees Total leaking upward b/c he thinks that neither team can run and passing going to be required. Payne says “I don’t have a good feel for the game….tough handicap.”
Sensed a lean to Michigan ATS, but only slightly.
Utah @ Washington -9.5
Weather may be a factor…rain and wind likely?
Payne says Utah offense depends on the run and they can have success…will it be enough? There are injury concerns with Jackson and the backs. Vaki is not expected to play as much, if any, as he has in past games (did not play on O in last game). Utah has bad pass attack and pass receivers, Barnes is not consistent. Pass blocking is not good and Barnes holds the ball. They may try and play up tempo? Weather if it comes may help Utah.
Powers examines Wash offense vs Utah defense. Utah needs to get pressure on Penix, but Washington o line is good. He has some concerns re Penix being forced into mistakes. Dillion Johnson running is good for Huskies. He has good things to say re Utah defense. But gives slight edge to Washington offense. He too warns of weather concerns affecting scoring and offense.
USC @ Oregon -15
2 highest scoring teams and total avg is 93 pts per game. Ducks defense is good but average against the run. They have mentioned several times this year the Caleb Willimas’ playground play and his lack of care of ball. There may be more USC running this week and Powers gives a slight edge to USC offense against Ducks defense.
Payne says Oregon offense against USC is largest mismatch of the weekend and the football season. He criticizes Lincoln Riley running a lazy program. He attributes the bad defense to this attitude and adds to that the fact USC has a bad front 7 talent level on defense. He also says USC recruiting and retention of players may be in trouble. I heard nothing positive to think USC gets an upset.
Tenny @ Mizzu +1.5
Powers thinks Tenny can run the ball against Mizzu…likes all 3 RBs and that can wear on defense. Can Milton take care of ball? He does not like Tenny receivers. Pass blocking is not the best. Mizzu has “decent players” but avg. Mizzu will load in the box and force Tenny to pass. Slight edge to Tenny bc of good running game. Payne thinks the current betting line is correct. He does not think Mizzu can run against Tenny. Tenny front is good and top 15 agst the run. Game comes down to Brady Cook and the pass…but their pass game is not explosive. Good news is Cook fast on his release. Luther Burden for Mizzu is hurt and that is bad for the Mizzu offense.
They lean to Tenny it seems. May be a strong lean.
Powers Non-Power 5 pick. He’s 5-2 last 7 as I recall and lost last week.
He takes San Jose State rather strongly. Has line at Pick. Do not think he wud care if it was the -1 I am seeing. Payne piped in and agreed. WIN BIGLY
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