TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I feel the same way. I've liked Tulane since I first saw the line. I doubt I bet it though. When it comes down to actually putting money on the line I see that 2-10 last year and my muscles freeze up
ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 5
- Thread starter TahoeLegend
- Start date
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Clearly Ole Miss will be the contrarian pick laying a TD this week. Trying to make arguments for laying that number is difficult.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Added Steve's Best Bet
Arkansas +17x
Arkansas +17x
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Perfect example of why I'm only betting a fraction of my usual bet this year. I'm not concentrating and focusing like I have to in order to win. I've been betting anyting from -3 on down ML instead of laying the points and I've made money doing it. For some reason the books usually only go from 110 to 115 a small price to pay. And yet tonight I didn't even think of doing that till an hour after my bet.
That's weak discipline and lack of focus
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I haven't heard of Rose Bowl renovations, unless you mean installing larger tarps over the empty seats? Haha. Resser Stadium is the one that half the stadium is being renovated and they are only using the one side and end zones.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
At least that kicker missed the xp! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
What everyone think of the utsa/mtsu game? Mtsu tough to figure, they have looked pretty good after getting beat down by jmu in week 1. Are they really this much improved over last year to where this should be only +4 vs a utsa team I think just better than them.
I was really hoping to get props on this game but looks like so far only props are on udub/ucla, speaking of which even tho I like udub DTR ov 207.5 pass yards shouod be money.
I was really hoping to get props on this game but looks like so far only props are on udub/ucla, speaking of which even tho I like udub DTR ov 207.5 pass yards shouod be money.
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Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Feels like the world is on Kentucky.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Hard not to like Utah imo
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Just c/p some blurbs of a preview I read, UTSA is very handicapped with injuries. Be shocked if they can run at all tonight.
The Roadrunners counted 21 players on last week’s injury report, and Traylor painted a bleak picture of his team’s health ahead of the Blue Raiders game.
The offensive tackle position “doesn’t look good,” and running back Trelon Smith, linebacker Dadrian Taylor, safety Rashad Wisdom and defensive linemen Brandon Matterson and Joe Evans are questionable.
Can UTSA run?
UTSA has “at times” shown the ability to run the ball, Brady said, but in other cases a “lack of execution on all parts” has kept the unit from clicking.
Though the interior offensive line trio of center Ahofitu Maka and guards Kevin Davis and Terrell Haynes “haven’t gotten the attention they deserve for how well they’ve been playing,” Traylor said, the absence of four starter-caliber offensive tackles has led to struggles establishing a downhill run game.
The Roadrunners rank 93rd nationally in rushing average at 3.8 yards per carry and will be hard-pressed to get on track against a Blue Raiders unit that ranks sixth in the FBS by allowing just 2.5 yards per rush.
“Their defensive line is really good,” Brady said. “They get a lot of penetration, a lot of movement against their opposing offensive linemen. Their backers, they’ll fit well, and those safeties will be the free hitters. If (we) get past the defensive line and linebackers, there will be a free hitter there, and you just have to make that guy miss.”
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'll probably be on home Baylor, that game was so crazy last week. Every TD for Baylor came after at least one 15 yard judgment penalty, ISU had 5 15 yarders in the 1h with a targeting and some others that were questionable to say the least. Only penalty on Baylor in the 1h was on a kickoff with less than a minute left in the half.
ISU QB was awful though, skipping passes and the defense couldn't get off the field on 3rd down in the 2h. Take what you will from it, Dekker v KU defense will be the story I think in Lawrence.
As for Waco, if you can get it why not just jump on the Baylor tt if you like over? I don't get team totals on DK until it's live but I might play that angle if I can. Might have to put money back in Caesars for it.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I'll fade Spencer Sanders against Baylor any time I get the chance.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Current line/total suggest team totals would be Baylor 29 OSU 26.5
Maybe someone with them can confirm?
2daBank said it well, and granted it's only 3 games but Ok St defense hasn't looked like the lockdown defense we've become accustomed to. Was pretty impressed with Baylor offense last week as well at moving the chains.
He Hate Me
I hope everyone is treated the same
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Stanford Steve usually has good takes on Stanford. As reflected in @TahoeLegend thread Steve likes Oregon. Listening to the podcast Steve sounded very confident. fwiw
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
I'm going with Baylor TT Over. I probably will take Baylor. Aranda is great imo
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Follow my rule - do not ever bet against Baylor. Doesn't mean you bet on them (I did last week) but do not bet against them.
Takes one element out of my decision making each week.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Mine is bet on home Baylor and against road Baylor, has worked well the last couple years, obviously didn't last week but they certainly didn't dominate the box score. Turnovers and penalties were the difference. I have no problem taking them tomorrow.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
#1 safety Mukuba was out. CB's Davis and Greene were out.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Yup.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t get it, why? I been trying not to bet their games at all cause I have a terrible time figuring them out, why not bet against them ever?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
The kids they had playing the corners were fucking terrible, I never seen nothing like it from tigers d! Those Mfers would get hit in the face if ball got thrown to them cause they apparently have no idea how to look for ball in the air! The worst part was they were clearly more than athletic enough, they often had great coverage on the wr but still got beat or just tackled them on under thrown balls cause they had no idea where the stinking ball was!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Always at home
Never away or neutral, hope that doesn't change any time soon and that last week was a one off
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Never heard this one, I’ll add it to my listening list. I notice Joel klatt has a pod this week and was kinda excited cause think he pretty knowledgeable, I always try to catch his weekly segment on cowherd, but his pod was pretty garbage, he was all over the place mostly not talking bout what I’m most interested in which is breakdowns of upcoming games or teams.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You betting them this week? I kinda like the over but I lost pretty much all the value of oddsmakers being slow to adjust to what okie lite is this year, it damn sure ain’t the same defensive team! Not only has the d slipped a ton but the offense is going at a warp speed pace. Feel like I’ve knocked Sanders a little less each year, I remember when he was a walking turnover, he has gotten a lot better.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Klatt is the only positive I've ever taken from Cowherd's show
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Steve has been very good on his picks involving Stanford and just the fact he thinks Oregon will smoke the trees makes me consider it
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Klatt was very good on his upset pick of the week, but I haven't seen him do it for the last year or so
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'll likely be on them, maybe ML. Just need to decide whether I want to lay the couple points.
Probably make a nice ML parlay partner for a higher spread game.
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
The preceding phrase answered your question. Plus, I like Aranda and since 1976 you never know when Baylor will come up and bite you in the ass.
Just my rule
2daBank
Voice of Reason
For sure, his take on trees one the few things I will never go against. Wish ducks woulda made his card, sounded like he might add them on one those segments he does where he has to have another play.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yeah Greg Cosell is always fascinating. Can't say his segments do anything to influence my wagering but his knowledge is insane.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Possibly since he's become one of their most prominent analysts on game day he's shied away...dunno.
Like him a lot calling games, best on Fox. Wish Gus would go back to just doing hoops.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
You've said it about Ok Lite defense already. Not close to the same team. Another game I'm shying away from the situation angle (MTSU tonight) which is rare but I can't really expect the defense to just randomly find a different gear in Waco.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I dunno why he stopped, think he always called it the “almost upset” on cowherd show. He usually still tips his hand bout one dog or another he likes during the segment. He say shit like “im just saying” or “so and so better be careful”. This week I’d guess he was thinking that bout iowa ov Michigan.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I can't see anything clearly about the Oklahoma State-Baylor game. It looks to me like one of those games that will go down to the last possession and that will decided the winner straight up AND against the spread.
Oklahoma State lost the DC who created that great defense and lost the best player off it (Rodriguez got no more respect from the NFL than he did the colleges--6th round pick I think--but he started from day one and is leading the Lions in tackles the last time I looked) and most of the back end of it. The D-line is better than last year, one of the best they've ever had, but the rest of the D is not up to last year, at least so far.
The offense is going to have to rely on passing this year because they lost their best RB and the best back on the team is probably a freshman who has looked like a star in the few plays he's gotten on the field. They probably have the best receivers in the conference and a lot of them so if Spencer can throw it to the guys in dark shirts they have a chance, but he's had some of his worst games against Baylor
The Baylor D looks as good as it did last year, but I'm not sure about the O. That QB had his greatest game against Okla State in the title game last year--first game he ever started--and has not looked that good since.
My guess is it will be the typical Big 12 game--home team will probably win and the outcome will be within a point or two of the spread.
If I had to bet it I'd probably take Baylor, but the line looks right on the money to me
Oklahoma State lost the DC who created that great defense and lost the best player off it (Rodriguez got no more respect from the NFL than he did the colleges--6th round pick I think--but he started from day one and is leading the Lions in tackles the last time I looked) and most of the back end of it. The D-line is better than last year, one of the best they've ever had, but the rest of the D is not up to last year, at least so far.
The offense is going to have to rely on passing this year because they lost their best RB and the best back on the team is probably a freshman who has looked like a star in the few plays he's gotten on the field. They probably have the best receivers in the conference and a lot of them so if Spencer can throw it to the guys in dark shirts they have a chance, but he's had some of his worst games against Baylor
The Baylor D looks as good as it did last year, but I'm not sure about the O. That QB had his greatest game against Okla State in the title game last year--first game he ever started--and has not looked that good since.
My guess is it will be the typical Big 12 game--home team will probably win and the outcome will be within a point or two of the spread.
If I had to bet it I'd probably take Baylor, but the line looks right on the money to me
