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ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 5

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Stanford Steve picked Oregon in his weekly picks on Daily Wager but left them off the podcast so I'm listing it, but won't score it.

ESPN Pickers:
Stanford Steve— 3-0-1 (7-9) 2020-21 Total (71-56)

(Best Bet 2-2)
TCU +6x
Baylor ML
Miss State -4
Arkansas +17x Best Bet
Oregon -17 (unofficial)

Scott Van Pelt—7-2 (19-11) 2020-21 Total (99-77)
UCLA +3
Purdue +12
Mississippi -7
TCU +7
Iowa St -3
Va Tech +9
Cal +4
Virginia +3
Missouri +29

The Bear—6-0 (14-6) 2020-21 Total (61-65)
(Bank Picks 8-4)

Iowa State -3
Kentucky +7
Utah -10
UTSA -4
Tulane +2x
Tulsa +9x

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
Lee— win (2-2) 2021 Season 10-3-1
Desmond— win (1-0-3) 2021 Season 9-5
Kirk—— win (3-1) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Reece——win (3-1) 2021 Season 9-5
David——win (4-0) 2021 Season 8-6



Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(6-3) (28-13)

Fla State (-7)
Miss St (-3.5)
Cal (+4)
Boise St (-6.5)
Baylor/Okla State o 57
MTSU (+4)
N C State/Clemson o 40.5
Utah (-10)
Coastal Carolina/Ga Southern o 64

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— 2-3 (9-6) 2020-21 Total (66-77)
Jax +6x 26-27
Hous +5' 27-23
NYJ +3 23-21
Den +2x 28-23
NE +9x 24-23

Phil Steele—1-5 (13-12 ) 2020-21 Total (78-87)
W Mich -16x
UTEP -2
No Texas +3
Baylor -2
Georgia -29
UCF -3x

Pamela Maldonado—4-1 (11-9) 2021 (17-23)
California +4
James Madison -22
Massachusetts +20
Colorado +17
Penn State -25½

My Picks—4-5 (12-14) 2020-21 Total (108-65)
Kentucky +7
Miss State -3 (-115)
Clemson/NC State o 40
Miss State ML
Bengals -2 first half tie
Washington/UCLA o 64x
Arkansas +17x
Air Force +13x
Baylor ML
Utah -10
Fla State -5x
Wyoming +3
Strong lean NC State, Illinois, Miss State, Utah.
Lean TCU, Arkansas, Florida State, Air Force, Iowa (would have been an automatic bet in past years, but this Iowa O makes me cautious), Maryland (that line got away from me). Slight lean W Virginia, Cal, Duke. Liked Auburn, but they are down to their 3rd string QB and 3rd string center.
Like Tulane and San Diego State if I bet the Friday games.

ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—2-1 (8-3-1) 2021 (17-15)

LSU -9
Georgia/Mizzou u 54
Arizona -17x

Greg McElroy— 2-1 (7-5) 2021 (22-17)
Kentucky/Old Miss U 54
Utah -10x
Miss State -3x

Joe Fortenbaugh—2-1 (6-6) 2021 (25-33)
Michigan State +8x
Texas State +22
San Jose State -3

Doug Kezirian—1-2 (3-9) 2021 (22-28)
LSU -9
Utah -10
N Mexico St -14x
BYU -14x Best Bet of the Day

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(1-2) (5-7) 2021 (9-30)

aTm
Mich State
Ohio

Mike DeCourcy—(0-3) (3-9) 2021 (15-24)
Kansas
aTm
Auburn

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (1-11) 2021 (17-23)
Okla State
Wake
Indiana

Bill Trocci—(0-3) (1-11) 2021 (16-23)
BC
Wake
Iowa
 
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ncst/clemson i think ya gotta be really sure about the weather, it looks to me like by saturday evening there a good chance the rain cleared out of that area, if so ya gotta like ncst chances but the over might be even better!! after watching clemson corners get absolutely abused last week and struggle prior weeks against lessor comp there no way to think they can stop leary and co from throwing the ball all over the yard on them. i been more skeptical of Leary than most but god damn the tigers secondary is nothing close to what you would expect from a team with a supposedly great d!! these mfers have no ability to look for or locate the ball while it in the air!! they constantly in good position but either get mossed or get a pi call against them as they tackle the wr on every under thrown ball!!! i cant recall last time i watched a entire game and not once did the corner get his head around or have the 1st freaking clue where the ball was!!! i dunno what they teaching these kids but they either not paying attention or are incapable of learning! they seriously looked like they came straight off the short bus last week!!! The problem with this of course is NCst coach is WAY to conservative and continually tries to run the ball even tho they suck at it! if they continue to attempt the 50/50 run pass they been most the season they will be doing clemson a huge favor! i would throw it 60x vs this secondary! there no freaking way these corners can defend 3 passes in a row without giving up a catch or committing yet another pi!! imo clemson really only has 2 chances to slow down ncst passing game, weather making it tough to throw and/or Doeren with a ultra conservative game plan!!
 
I like another square small road fav Friday night. How can ya not like udub? We knew they were talented last year they just had a awful fucking coach! They brought in a good coach and his hand picked qb and they balling! I think they might be the best team in the pac-12. Ucla defensive numbers are skewed, they really played bunch of scrubs and s bama put up 31 on them! 1st half might be best, udub has scored on 17 of 20 1st half possessions! 14 of them tds! On the other hand bruins been awful in 1st halves but much better in the sevond.
 
ncst/clemson i think ya gotta be really sure about the weather, it looks to me like by saturday evening there a good chance the rain cleared out of that area, if so ya gotta like ncst chances but the over might be even better!! after watching clemson corners get absolutely abused last week and struggle prior weeks against lessor comp there no way to think they can stop leary and co from throwing the ball all over the yard on them. i been more skeptical of Leary than most but god damn the tigers secondary is nothing close to what you would expect from a team with a supposedly great d!! these mfers have no ability to look for or locate the ball while it in the air!! they constantly in good position but either get mossed or get a pi call against them as they tackle the wr on every under thrown ball!!! i cant recall last time i watched a entire game and not once did the corner get his head around or have the 1st freaking clue where the ball was!!! i dunno what they teaching these kids but they either not paying attention or are incapable of learning! they seriously looked like they came straight off the short bus last week!!! The problem with this of course is NCst coach is WAY to conservative and continually tries to run the ball even tho they suck at it! if they continue to attempt the 50/50 run pass they been most the season they will be doing clemson a huge favor! i would throw it 60x vs this secondary! there no freaking way these corners can defend 3 passes in a row without giving up a catch or committing yet another pi!! imo clemson really only has 2 chances to slow down ncst passing game, weather making it tough to throw and/or Doeren with a ultra conservative game plan!!
Great minds think alike! Thanks for the information.

I added Clemson/NC State o 40 when I saw the forecast it should be calm at game time. I've lost bets before by taking the over based on weather forecasts, but I see it like you do--unless Doeren just blindly insists on running every play (which is certainly possible) I see this one going over, especially with this artificially depressed total.

I lean NC state side too, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Just added Miss State -3.
 
I like another square small road fav Friday night. How can ya not like udub? We knew they were talented last year they just had a awful fucking coach! They brought in a good coach and his hand picked qb and they balling! I think they might be the best team in the pac-12. Ucla defensive numbers are skewed, they really played bunch of scrubs and s bama put up 31 on them! 1st half might be best, udub has scored on 17 of 20 1st half possessions! 14 of them tds! On the other hand bruins been awful in 1st halves but much better in the sevond.
Agree, but I never bet UCLA games because they are the world's most unpredictable team, at least when I bet on them. I can't figure them out.

And this year there is the strange situation that UCLA is right up with the leaders in every defensive stat even though Kelly is known for offense. I can't handicap UCLA even when I have watched them play and I haven't seen a down this year. And unless something changes for this game there is no home field advantage for UCLA because it looks like the Rose Bowl is deserted for some of their games
 
Great minds think alike! Thanks for the information.

I just added Clemson/NC State o 40 when I saw the forecast it should be calm at game time. I've lost bets before by taking the over based on weather forecasts, but I see it like you do--unless Doeren just blindly insists on running every play (which is certainly possible) I see this one going over, especially with this artificially depressed total.

I lean NC state side too, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Added Miss State -3.

I wasn’t as quick. I got some of it at o42 -120. I def worry bout Doeren conservative nature but not so much at 42. Really hope they see on tape they shouldn’t waste a lot of time attempting to run on clemson. I know wake had some success rushing later in the game but I think it because tigers had to start dedicating so many into the secondary (not that it did much good since none of them can turn their freaking heads!). If they let Leary throw on early downs he should have plenty of success.
 
Agree, but I never bet UCLA games because they are the world's most unpredictable team, at least when I bet on them. I can't figure them out.

And this year there is the strange situation that UCLA is right up with the leaders in every defensive stat even though Kelly is known for offense. I can't handicap UCLA even when I have watched them play and I haven't seen a down this year. And unless something changes for this game there is no home field advantage for UCLA because it looks like the Rose Bowl is deserted for some of their games

I think those defensive stats are skewed based on the scrubs they been playing, south bama had almost 400 yards and 31 points! I don’t see them stopping udub passing attack, particularly early where huskies been fantastic. Not only they don’t seem to have much fan support but pretty sure there renovations or something going on to where they can only fill like half the stadium, which they havnt even sold out that half as of yet.
 
Great minds think alike! Thanks for the information.

I added Clemson/NC State o 40 when I saw the forecast it should be calm at game time. I've lost bets before by taking the over based on weather forecasts, but I see it like you do--unless Doeren just blindly insists on running every play (which is certainly possible) I see this one going over, especially with this artificially depressed total.

I lean NC state side too, but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Just added Miss State -3.

I like messy st also. I just don’t see how Aggies score much of anything on them? I’m sure the d will be able to slow leach offense down some but they gonna score and dunno how AM matches that?
 
Added Stanford Steve's picks. He picked Oregon -17 in his weekly picks on Daily Wager, but left them off on his podcast so I'm listing them, but won't score that game
TCU +6x
Baylor ML
Miss State -4
Oregon -17 (unofficial)
 
Added Stanford Steve's picks. He picked Oregon -17 in his weekly picks on Daily Wager, but left them off on his podcast so I'm listing them, but won't score that game
TCU +6x
Baylor ML
Miss State -4
Oregon -17 (unofficial)

Tcu so tempting, I certainly think they good enough to play w Sooners but don’t love Sooners coming off the loss. Martinez killed them scrambling, not sure I’d classify Duggan as a runner but I’ve seen him do some damage on the ground in past seasons. He hasn’t been doing much w his legs since a few good runs vs Colorado. Kinda a mystery how Okla reacts to a loss with this coaching staff?
 
You wouldn’t really know it looking at the score or final box score but I think tcu secondary did quite well for 2-3 qrtrs vs smu passing attack, there some talent on that defense.
 
Tcu so tempting, I certainly think they good enough to play w Sooners but don’t love Sooners coming off the loss. Martinez killed them scrambling, not sure I’d classify Duggan as a runner but I’ve seen him do some damage on the ground in past seasons. He hasn’t been doing much w his legs since a few good runs vs Colorado. Kinda a mystery how Okla reacts to a loss with this coaching staff?
Total mystery. No one knows if this was a one-game collapse or if this coaching staff is just not up to coaching against a team with a great coach like Kansas State. There were so many blunders by coaches, including a major one by the OC. He called a play, then realized he didn't have the players he needed on the play so substituted late. Klieman is too smart a coach to allow that, so he took his time and had a sub slowly walk on the field and let the play clock expire. It was on fourth down and OU was going for it, so the penalty killed the drive and they had to punt

That game was not a case of OU overlooking K State either. It was the most hyped game of the year and OU pulled out all the stops to make that the major home game event of the year. Then they go out and get physically dominated by K State

That's why I'm leaning to TCU. I'm not betting on OU till I get an idea of whether OU has a defense or it's the same shell it's been the last five years or so
 
Tcu so tempting, I certainly think they good enough to play w Sooners but don’t love Sooners coming off the loss. Martinez killed them scrambling, not sure I’d classify Duggan as a runner but I’ve seen him do some damage on the ground in past seasons. He hasn’t been doing much w his legs since a few good runs vs Colorado. Kinda a mystery how Okla reacts to a loss with this coaching staff?
Not really high on TCU coming off the cross-city victory either

Would be OU or nothing for me as a situational wager
 
Total mystery. No one knows if this was a one-game collapse or if this coaching staff is just not up to coaching against a team with a great coach like Kansas State. There were so many blunders by coaches, including a major one by the OC. He called a play, then realized he didn't have the players he needed on the play so substituted late. Klieman is too smart a coach to allow that, so he took his time and had a sub slowly walk on the field and let the play clock expire. It was on fourth down and OU was going for it, so the penalty killed the drive and they had to punt

That game was not a case of OU overlooking K State either. It was the most hyped game of the year and OU pulled out all the stops to make that the major home game event of the year. Then they go out and get physically dominated by K State

That's why I'm leaning to TCU. I'm not betting on OU till I get an idea of whether OU has a defense or it's the same shell it's been the last five years or so

I wish Duggan was more a runner, after seeing what Martinez did against them im pretty anxious to get another running qb vs that sooner d!
 
Throw in the fact TCU seemed to be ordinary on D last week against SMU and Dykes has never shown much interest in D and it makes this a hard game to handicap.

I might pull the trigger on TCU if I could find +7, but I don't see a single book that has it

Sports Illustrated Sports Book has NC State +7, but I've never bet with them. I've been betting with some new on-line books I've never bet with before, but didn't know till today that SI Sportsbook existed. Anyone have any experience with them?
 
Throw in the fact TCU seemed to be ordinary on D last week against SMU and Dykes has never shown much interest in D and it makes this a hard game to handicap.

I might pull the trigger on TCU if I could find +7, but I don't see a single book that has it

Sports Illustrated Sports Book has NC State +7, but I've never bet with them. I've been betting with some new on-line books I've never bet with before, but didn't know till today that SI Sportsbook existed. Anyone have any experience with them?
If you do I'm curious. AZ only issued 14 licenses and all have been associated with a sports venue or casino here until Hard Rock popped up as one. I believe Circa was issued but isn't up and running yet, possibly waiting on affiliation with the Coyotes once they have an arena is my guess.

Anyone who has used Hard Rock, I'd like to know that experience. They aren't affiliated with anyone that I'm aware of here, just online.
 
Throw in the fact TCU seemed to be ordinary on D last week against SMU and Dykes has never shown much interest in D and it makes this a hard game to handicap.

I might pull the trigger on TCU if I could find +7, but I don't see a single book that has it

Sports Illustrated Sports Book has NC State +7, but I've never bet with them. I've been betting with some new on-line books I've never bet with before, but didn't know till today that SI Sportsbook existed. Anyone have any experience with them?

Honestly I tonight tcu d was really good against smu, at times anyways. I think they have pretty good talent in the secondary. Of course they shoulda had really good incite into what smu was gonna do and their players and they did still allow a whole bunch of points and yards.
 
Seeing a lot of +7 now for NC State. I'll probably just stick with the total, but I'm tempted by NC State with the 7. I'm dropping Iowa from consideration. I've won so much on the Hawkeyes in situations like this over the years I'm really temped, but this offense they have this year is bad even for Iowa.

Still strong lean to Arkansas, Illinois and Utah. Like Minnesota, but that line may be too much for me to swallow, especially with a back door cover machine like Purdue.

What are you guys thinking on FSU/Wake and A Force/Navy? I lean to both favorites, but don't have any strong urge.
 
What are you guys thinking on FSU/Wake and A Force/Navy? I lean to both favorites, but don't have any strong urge.

Not sure if I've ever teased a CFB game but AFA seems awfully interesting if there is a partner or two.

If Wake can show up in Tallahassee off of last week that might be more impressive than scoring the way they did on Clemson. FSU makes a bunch of sense to me.
 
Not sure if I've ever teased a CFB game but AFA seems awfully interesting if there is a partner or two.

If Wake can show up in Tallahassee off of last week that might be more impressive than scoring the way they did on Clemson. FSU makes a bunch of sense to me.

At open for sure, I don’t think I can lay it after number got pounded. I’d have loved to get some fsu -3ish. Now I feel like either pass or over. Not sure either team gets stops in that one? Fsu team total maybe if you worried bout wake? I have no doubt fsu will do pretty much whatever they want against wake d. If wake wants to take the run game away Travis will light them up, if they don’t put enough in the box noles rush attack will control game, noles are so balanced now that Travis has developed into a real qb!
 
At open for sure, I don’t think I can lay it after number got pounded. I’d have loved to get some fsu -3ish. Now I feel like either pass or over. Not sure either team gets stops in that one? Fsu team total maybe if you worried bout wake? I have no doubt fsu will do pretty much whatever they want against wake d. If wake wants to take the run game away Travis will light them up, if they don’t put enough in the box noles rush attack will control game, noles are so balanced now that Travis has developed into a real qb!
Put them in a ML parlay with Buffalo
 
Put them in a ML parlay with Buffalo

I dunno bout Buffalo (just cause not even sure who they playing). Kinda agree fsu ml a good option tho. I think they might sneaky be the best team in acc for real. They have had a different wr lead in yardage every game! That some depth, plus Travis doing a fantastic job getting it to the right guys! They have 2-3 good backs and a solid run game also. The offense is finally starting to look like I envisioned it could when Norvell brought it from memphis to pair it with way more talent!!
 
We gonna find out bout noles these next 3 weeks, wake, at ncst, clemson! I wouldn’t be shocked if they won all 3!
 
Buffalo are playing Miami O, feel pretty good about that one, opened pk but think it will close around 3

FSU under this coach is finally back to more than just respectable imo

Probably be doing several ML parlays on Saturday, several games on key numbers as is and one of those weeks I just like the favorites more than usual
 
Bet the Board. Record 1-3. Won last week on Oregon State

I have not finished listening yet but skipped ahead. The selection this week is Troy +5.5 +6. (I now see +5 at my shop)

They had a shocking stat on Udub's DeBoer beating the spread 71% of the time last 6 years (?). I was in the truck listening, so did not get this exactly correct.


They break down these games:

Washington at UCLA (9:36)
Wake Forest at Florida State (17:27)
N.C. State at Clemson (26:43)
Non Power’s 5 (36:35)
Oklahoma State at Baylor (41:02)
Kentucky at Ole Miss (50:12)
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (58:14)
Alabama at Arkansas (1:03:27)
 
Added Bear's Picks
Iowa State -3
Kentucky +7
Utah -10
UTSA -4
Tulane +2x
Tulsa +9x

I still haven't heard if the Tulsa QB is playing this week or not. If he is, and is 100%, I like that one.
 
Little worried bout Noles run d but a lot of those numbers were 2 really good running qbs running all over them. None these upcoming acc teams really have that! Maybe DJ a smidge but he nothing like Cunningham or Daniels.
 
Bet the Board. Record 1-3. Won last week on Oregon State

I have not finished listening yet but skipped ahead. The selection this week is Troy +5.5 +6. (I now see +5 at my shop)

They had a shocking stat on Udub's DeBoer beating the spread 71% of the time last 6 years (?). I was in the truck listening, so did not get this exactly correct.


They break down these games:

Washington at UCLA (9:36)
Wake Forest at Florida State (17:27)
N.C. State at Clemson (26:43)
Non Power’s 5 (36:35)
Oklahoma State at Baylor (41:02)
Kentucky at Ole Miss (50:12)
Texas A&M at Mississippi State (58:14)
Alabama at Arkansas (1:03:27)

I forget if it was them or somewhere else I saw/heard that udub has scored on 17 of 20 1st half possessions? I usually kinda fall asleep so gotta listen a few times but sometimes I pick up tidbits but can’t remember where they came from. Lol

I didn’t make it close to the end cause I don’t recall anything bout the last 2 sec games or hear their play ! Lol
 
Added one NFL bet, Bengals -2 first half.

I’m all over the bungals tonight, kinda wish I woulda did 1st half but didn’t think bout, just laid the -3.5 for game and played their tt ov26.5., if Miami defense is able to hold them down after being out on the field for 90 plays vs bills just a few days ago I’ll tip my cap.
 
I’m all over the bungals tonight, kinda wish I woulda did 1st half but didn’t think bout, just laid the -3.5 for game and played their tt ov26.5., if Miami defense is able to hold them down after being out on the field for 90 plays vs bills just a few days ago I’ll tip my cap.
Same here. I watched that game and the heat was brutal. Both teams had guys limping off left and right. And the Miami D was not that hot to begin with.

I've been looking at that Bengal team total as well. I like it a lot. I was interested in the -3x, but by the time I called my book it was up to -4 so I'm trying to decide whether to take the tt or just ride with the first half bet

Also like the over, but there's only so much I want to bet on one game. My buddy suggested a parlay with first half, tt, and game over so I might put a few bucks on that
 
Same here. I watched that game and the heat was brutal. Both teams had guys limping off left and right. And the Miami D was not that hot to begin with.

I've been looking at that Bengal team total as well. I like it a lot. I was interested in the -3x, but by the time I called my book it was up to -4 so I'm trying to decide whether to take the tt or just ride with the first half bet

Also like the over, but there's only so much I want to bet on one game. My buddy suggested a parlay with first half, tt, and game over so I might put a few bucks on that

I just went bungals team total opposed to game over cause even tho fish offense outta be well rested Tua got beat up and I heard waddle was dealing w injury also, this just feels like it could potentially be very one sided so even tho I’m a huge fan of Miami offense didn’t want any part of them tonight.
 
I just went bungals team total opposed to game over cause even tho fish offense outta be well rested Tua got beat up and I heard waddle was dealing w injury also, this just feels like it could potentially be very one sided so even tho I’m a huge fan of Miami offense didn’t want any part of them tonight.
If I had been thinking better I would have tried to bet Bengals ML first half. I bet with my local guy so not sure he offered ML on first half bets, but I prefer to bet ML when it's less than three points. The extra juice is always the minimum and it removes ties and two point wins from beating me
 
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If I had been thinking better I would have tried to bet Bengals ML first half. I bet with my local guy so not sure he offered ML on half time bets, but I prefer to bet ML when it's less than three points. The extra juice is always the minimum and it removes ties and two point wins from beating me

I usually act like the point or 2 don’t matter and it often burns me! Prob a good idea doing it your way! Lol
 
I considered moving cincy up to -6 and taking some plus money since I’m laying -3.5 anyways but wussed out.
 
I hate this thu night game so much, other than playing 1st half under which I rarely do that even anymore I usually don’t touch this game but it just seems like a great spot to fade Miami defense. Imo There no way they can be as good tonight as they be on a normal week.
 
these losers just sit back and let teddy b pick them apart, no pressure, no nothing; bungals are a terribly coached team but since they got hot and went to SB these clowns now made men. Taylor offense is garbage, just works cause burrow and the wrs, he does nothing scheme wise to get anyone open. Then that garbage prevent the moron dc played before half should get him fired.
 
They just said on ESPN that Clemson had three db starters out last week and they are back this week.

I didn't even know they were out last week. Shows my level of dedication.
 
I usually act like the point or 2 don’t matter and it often burns me! Prob a good idea doing it your way! Lol
Ha! I do the same thing. It just automatically vanishes from my mind as if it means nothing.

I decided the small additional cost of going ML was a worth it compared to the number of times I lost or tied with 1, 2, and 2x
 
I still think the over a strong play seeing how it got beat down so low cause the potential weather. I’d think game is played in the low to mid 20s, the original 47 I think was a pretty good number.
 
Think i want to fade houston again, that been working out pretty well! I really don’t think houston all that tough to deal with, if you can take Dell away they don’t have a lot else working for them.
 
They just said on ESPN that Clemson had three db starters out last week and they are back this week.

I didn't even know they were out last week. Shows my level of dedication.
They had a CB and a safety out last week that I know of. Pride and Wiggins played a lot more than normal and were getting burned. Wiggins is their #3 CB and Pride is a freshman. Maybe @M.W. knows of a 3rd player that was out.
 
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