ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 12

2daBank said:
im looking at bc/over, navy. clemson, rutgers in the morning along with some props on the osu game.. uva, cuse, uab/utsa under along with a few bama props in afternoon.. so far that bout what i got.
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Decided to pass on Clemson/Wake. I can't come up with anything on the morning schedule.

OU/Iowa State will be the windiest game of the day it appears. Winds steady at 15, gusting to 30, but warm and sunny. I'd like to bet this one, but the line looks perfect to me so I'll probably pass. Going to do something with Ohio St, but not sure what yet.

I'm leaning the same way you are on ULL, Minn, and will bet Virginia or the over if Armstrong plays
 
Added Phil Steele picks. As usual, you could figure out who made the picks even if I didn't identify the picker.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Decided to pass on Clemson/Wake. I can't come up with anything on the morning schedule.

OU/Iowa State will be the windiest game of the day it appears. Winds steady at 15, gusting to 30, but warm and sunny. I'd like to bet this one, but the line looks perfect to me so I'll probably pass. Going to do something with Ohio St, but not sure what yet.

I'm leaning the same way you are on ULL, Minn, and will bet Virginia or the over if Armstrong plays
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i generally like to get all my morning and 2;30 bets in the 1st time i go to casino, sometimes i run back before 2;30 but prefer not having to, so i just went on faith that Armstrong would play, i mean from what i heard he probably could have last week, and this game for all the marbles so im pretty sure he will give it a go.. i dunno if he make it thru the game but we wont know that at any point before kick, if he dont play i really fucked up cause i dont think they have much chance without him, i think line should be 17 minimum if he out so thinking he gonna try at least! pitt was what -11 or so vs canes, so dont think this line implies he out, actually think it implies he playing, or hope so at least, lol..

i was dying for a Shipley rushing prop but never got one, i think he gonna go crazy on wake today. plenty of ppl i respect on wake but i just think they looking at it all wrong, they all talking bout clemson offense not having the ability to score with wake, i agree with that but i dont think that the main question here, obviously if wake turns this into a shootout clemson is cooked, i dont think clemson is gonna allow that tho,., i think tigers will drag wake down into the muck like they have everyone!! lets see how wake does in a much different kind of game than they have played all year!!!
 
2daBank said:
i just went on faith that Armstrong would play, i mean from what i heard he probably could have last week, and this game for all the marbles so im pretty sure he will give it a go..
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I'm going to wait until the telecast comes on and see what they say. Once they announce yes or no I'll make a bet. Seems strange to bet one side or the other depending on one guy, but that's the difference Armstrong makes

I think you are right on Clemson running the ball and I think the Clemson D can slow Wake down to a walk, but I hate to lay points with that Clemson QB.

Had to have something on the Ohio State/Michigan St game so just bet Ohio State -6x first quarter.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm going to wait until the telecast comes on and see what they say. Once they announce yes or no I'll make a bet. Seems strange to bet one side or the other depending on one guy, but that's the difference Armstrong makes

I think you are right on Clemson running the ball and I think the Clemson D can slow Wake down to a walk, but I hate to lay points with that Clemson QB.

Had to have something on the Ohio State/Michigan St game so just bet Ohio State -6x first quarter.
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not that strange, good qbs are worth a td according to oddmakers and i think they are sometimes low with the difference. these mfers scored 3 points against irish last week and did nothing in the byu game after he went out, if ya recall uva was right in that byu game matching score for score until armstrong went down. i get it, nd defense pretty good but 3 points for this offense? they would have scored in the 20s with armstrong imo, so he worth a ton, not silly to wait at all. like i said if he out i might as well rip up my ticket, just took a chance cause think he will play, im more worried he starts and gets knocked out! lol

im hoping DJ wont be asked to throw the ball more than 18x!! lol.. id prefer to see him run the ball not throw it, mfer couldnt complete 50% vs freaking ucon!! lol
 
I'm going to gamble he plays, but just play a small parlay of Virginia +15x/Va/Pitt over 66. I've spent too much time on that game and still don't know if he's playing or not
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm going to gamble he plays, but just play a small parlay of Virginia +15x/Va/Pitt over 66. I've spent too much time on that game and still don't know if he's playing or not
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Lol. I hate trying to figure out ncaa injuries, it such bs. That why I just bet this morning cause damn near impossible to find out till they start game. Luckily he played, I mean I heard he coulda prob played last week so felt confident just saving for the important conf game. So far so good, seems ok to me
 
2daBank said:
Lol. I hate trying to figure out ncaa injuries, it such bs. That why I just bet this morning cause damn near impossible to find out till they start game. Luckily he played, I mean I heard he coulda prob played last week so felt confident just saving for the important conf game. So far so good, seems ok to me
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The problem I have with waiting for a game time injury decision is I keep looking at the game so long I can see anything I want to see and wind up taking positions I would never take otherwise

I see Nebraska lost again, covered again, played a tough team right to the wire again. I've never seen a team play more good teams right to the gun and still lose every one of them. They are a damn good team, but if you just look at the record you'd think they were pitiful

I'm looking at the late games, but not seeing much. I love Oklahoma State this year, but the best number I can get so far is -11. Too much to lay in a game where Gundy will be just trying to win by one and get his players ready for next week.

I may take Oregon State and the points, but it's more of an educated guess than real handicapping

You like anything in the late games?
 
TahoeLegend said:
The problem I have with waiting for a game time injury decision is I keep looking at the game so long I can see anything I want to see and wind up taking positions I would never take otherwise

I see Nebraska lost again, covered again, played a tough team right to the wire again. I've never seen a team play more good teams right to the gun and still lose every one of them. They are a damn good team, but if you just look at the record you'd think they were pitiful

I'm looking at the late games, but not seeing much. I love Oklahoma State this year, but the best number I can get so far is -11. Too much to lay in a game where Gundy will be just trying to win by one and get his players ready for next week.

I may take Oregon State and the points, but it's more of an educated guess than real handicapping

You like anything in the late games?
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they a good team when they play the best teams, but then when they play teams they should beat/are favs against they find ways to lose every time!! i kinda love them cause they been super easy to bet, i didnt play them today (just cause wiscy is the opposite for me, very hard to figure) but i have won on them most the times they were dogged to good teams and faded them several times they been favs!!! i think you could prob make the case they really close to a top 25 team but only when they playing top teams, they a mess against equal or lessor teams,. that has to be coaching right? or maybe it not frost fault martinez a total fuck up? i have no freaking idea wtf the problem is there? it crazy they not even going to a shitty bowl, there way less talented teams doing that..

this night card blows, i seriously couldnt find one game i thought there was any kind of real edge, i have Brown over passing yards prop in the ducks game, i kinda like Nolan for beavers over 181.5 passing yards, that seems pretty low, i figure it pretty tough to run on asu so he prob gonna need to throw for 220ish at least. i lean beavers as well, mostly cause i figure odds asu goes on road in b2b weeks and doenst play super sloppy with turnovers and penalties pretty unlikely, hate making a bet like that tho, where i think asu the better team if they both play their best, just counting on Herm boys not playing their best cause they havnt proven capable of doing that consistently.. pretty sure im just calling it a day other than the Brown prop i have. nothing excites me enough, makes for a boring ass night tho. guess ill try and hag out with the woman, lol..
 
2daBank said:
i lean beavers as well, mostly cause i figure odds asu goes on road in b2b weeks and doenst play super sloppy with turnovers and penalties pretty unlikely,
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Exactly

Arizona State's history under Herm is to play super sloppy in this situation. They do it almost every time
 
2daBank said:
i have no freaking idea wtf the problem is there? i
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I don't think it's coaching. They aren't like a typical bad team like Indiana or Georgia Tech. They play like a tough disciplined team most of the game, but for one series--sometimes one play--something happens and Oklahoma or Michigan State or Michigan manages to squeeze out a win. Those games all turned on one play at the critical time

I can't recall a team every do it game after game like they do
 
TahoeLegend said:
I don't think it's coaching. They aren't like a typical bad team like Indiana or Georgia Tech. They play like a tough disciplined team most of the game, but for one series--sometimes one play--something happens and Oklahoma or Michigan State or Michigan manages to squeeze out a win. Those games all turned on one play at the critical time

I can't recall a team every do it game after game like they do
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im not talking bout when they barely lose to the good teams, im talking bout the games they lose they were favs, they generally play like ass in those games!!
 
2daBank said:
always thought he was a good coach
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He is a good coach. He went in there when they were on the ropes and immediately made the respectable. They can beat anyone in the Pac-12. There's no program in the conference that can count on beating them

And yet they can disappear in any game at any time. Of course disappearing two or three games a year is a way of life in the Pac 12
 
TahoeLegend said:
He is a good coach. He went in there when they were on the ropes and immediately made the respectable. They can beat anyone in the Pac-12. There's no program in the conference that can count on beating them

And yet they can disappear in any game at any time. Of course disappearing two or three games a year is a way of life in the Pac 12
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most good coaches i expect their team to be a certain level of buttoned up most weeks, they can lose but not cause of dumb ass penalties and turnovers, that not generally a staple of well coached teams, although i agree he is a good coach, or i think of him as one anyways, if i had a kid id want him to play for Herm.
 
2daBank said:
im not talking bout when they barely lose to the good teams, im talking bout the games they lose they were favs, they generally play like ass in those games!
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They lost on the road to Illinois when they should have won, but other than that they kicked butt and won SU and aTS
 
TahoeLegend said:
They lost on the road to Illinois when they should have won, but other than that they kicked butt and won SU and aTS
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i played against them several times they were favs and cashed.. illini, minny, purdue at home off top my head, favs and lost and played nothing like the team who played the good teams tough.
 
not that minny or purdue are bad teams but they were sizable favs and they did not play nearly as well they did in the games vs the highly ranked teams.
 
TahoeLegend said:
You took ULL didn't yu?

How did your props do?
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5-3 overall and hit the bigger ones, so pretty good. i didnt play any the night card. should have of course.. did bad in morning, good in afternoon, ho-hum. thought i was being smart laying off the night games cause didnt love but of course most my leans were good., what else is new, lol.
 
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