survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
I don’t think I’ve seen too much rpo stuff this year
ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 12
- Thread starter TahoeLegend
- Start date
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Houston or pass imo. Silverfield is 0-8 ATS on the road
2daBank
Voice of Reason
when you dive into their numbers you can see why they suck on the road, they pretty much suck at every category i consider important for winning on the road. lol. i didnt even realize how horrific their 3rd down defense was till last week when i watched ecu pick up one 3rd and long after another the entire game!!! Memphis fg kickers a whopping 30% his tries!! lol. i wonder if that why they went for 2 in the 1st ot last week? i dunno how he is at the xp? ecu had more rushing attempts than mem had plays last week!!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I think there is some truth in that. However, Louisville~Duke had many similarities to every Duke ACC game regardless of where it was on the schedule.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Would be good to get a W-L record with his picks on/against Stanford. I would be pretty sure he is +$ on that.
However, if McKee is back, that can make a difference I think. A statement like that is him showing confidence in his pick like "it doesn't even matter who is QB for them". But really, I think the difference between the Fr QB who played last week vs McKee is enormous. Cal could still win, but I'd put it closer 50-50 if McKee plays vs 90+% Cal wins if he doesn't. Steve would know best, I just think it matters more than he is letting on. McKee has had some pretty good moments this season, the droppoff from with him to without him is as big of a gap as any team in the country could have without their starter.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
And the Ohio State secondary is what?
Ohio State O is a difficult matchup for everybody that is going to play them. Is Michigan State O a bad matchup for Ohio State D?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
He's picking with confidence rather than just resorting to what his comfort zone is.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I like Rutgers but am nervous about it. I think Penn State won't bring their A game. I think Penn State has already proven to be vulnerable (Illinois game, 3 quarters of Maryland game). We could say that week 1 last year was it, but Schiano still doesn't have a signature win in tour #2 this time around - Rutgers likely is going to care more about trying to beat PSU than PSU is about just playing Rutgers. Rutgers played Michigan tough so some evidence they could hang with one of the "big boys" that isn't especially hard to matchup against...just have to account for Dotson some how.
The flip side is that Penn State D can be pretty good and Rutgers isn't exactly a great offensive team. That is what makes me nervous.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Those are pure or raw yards as the stat people call them.
I don't know a bunch of the analytics, but if we just looked at Pass D Efficiency, kind of like a QBR for pass D, Ohio State and Michigan State are actually ranked right next to eachother in Big Ten pass D Eff.
Somebody should be posting what the more advanced stats have to say about MSU's pass D rather than just the yardage. Old school state like Pass Eff D is likely outdated, but if you use that, MSU pass D is rated on par with Ohio States.
Michigan State's two biggest pass yardage allowed games were vs very pass heavy teams WKU only ran for 72 and Purdue only ran for 58. So naturally those teams are going to throw a ton and move the ball through the air.
The only real alarming game I saw out of the Michigan State secondary was vs Michigan. A team that likes to and wants to run, yet had that kind of success vs them was a big wow. Like who other than Michigan fans has ever heard of Andrel Anthony? Dude exploded like some stud WR!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Is playing for bowl eligibility the same as wanting to get the season over?
The thing with Houston is they do Houston things, I find them hard to rely on and when I look to fade them one of the things I list is the fact that they don't play to their full potential quite often. Like the 1st H vs Temple. Like the 2nd H vs ECU. Houston has a bad OL, they allow a lot of QB pressure and TFLs even vs teams that don't normally do that well. Memphis lost a misleading final at Tulsa and it is true they don't have the success on the road they have had at home, they beat SMU...that is something isn't it?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I haven't looked yet, but the line must be pricing he is out.
lb49ers
Pretty much a regular
Rest of Pam Maldonado's picks
Wake Forest (+4.5) ML +165
Iowa St (+3.5) ML +145
Illinois (+12.5)
UTSA (-4.5)
Ov 69 (Florida/Missouri)
lb49ers
Pretty much a regular
She is playing with the points and sprinkle a little on the ML.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Somebody should come up with an angle how teams perform the week after their fans storm the field after a big win. It's like, there is a big win, then there is a field storming win. If they were broken down separately I think the field storming result the next week would lose more often if we could figure it out and track it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
yea, im not sure if ill actually play rutgers, just saying there no chance in hell id lay that with psu.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i dunno, they still his typical type play, it just generally dogs, same formula with favs he talks about.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
who said anything about osu secondary or any other part their defense? i dunno what osu defense is, i certainly have doubts, im just saying i dont see any chance sparty can control osu passing game, nothing more.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
his rational that even if Mckee back he most likely would be rusty and is missing most the guys around him that were there before.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Flip it. Can tOSU control Sparty's pass?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i dunno,, im, not sure how good sparty passing game is? ive seen their offense struggle on more than one occasion, their qb seems to be really good with play action but not so much on straight drop backs. to me it all says some kind of over, unless sparty can really control the pace with their offense and limit possessions, im not sure if they can do that or not?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Cal QB should be rusty too, right? Haven't played since 10/30
WR Michael Wilson played his first game of the season 2 weeks ago, the first game McKee missed. So if McKee plays that will be their first game together. Wilson was the teams #1 receiver in 2019. So that is one guy he gets back.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Sell out o the run and take your chance on an island. Can tOSU DBs hold? I think they can. Been a log season since they were routinely getting burned..
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
You didn't. You said Michigan State is a bad secondary. And I'm implying, what if Ohio State is a bad secondary too?
"control"? I don't know. You could say that Ohio State controled the Nebraska passing game, but the Huskers were able to hit enough big plays to make an impact in that game.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i dunno bro, i have no real interest in trying to cap hardly any the pac12 let alone these 2 goofy ass teams, only reason im interested is cause Steve seemed to think Cal was a great play and as i mentioned i respect his opinion on stanford games quite a bit. Id be better off flipping a coin than trying to predict some these pac12 squads. every once in awhile i get a decent feel for one but none lately, lol.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
If they do the referees won't see it
2daBank
Voice of Reason
kinda why i was asking if sparty ran any rpo cause that really roasted osu in those early games, i know they have changed things since then but ive yet to see them play a real good rpo offense since ducks so i dunno if that fixed or not?
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Added Houston -9
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I know, I just enjoy some good back-and-forth
Sometimes when I see flippant reasons why something should happen, I have to push back and offer some counter points. People sometimes leave information out to further their point (not you 2dabank, we are talking about Steve, so not far for you to have to defend him when it isn't your belief, instead it's his)
2daBank
Voice of Reason
normally im game, i just dont have the answers or even a decent idea in this game, i havnt and prob never will even try diving into numbers or anything else with this game, lol. it either a tail Steve or leave alone for me, lol..
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Yes.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
seems like the right play to me, i didnt see any reason to like memphis.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
If I had them, I'd be rich...I keep reading about MSU Pass D is so bad. Well, how is their pass O. tOSU "can" stop the run. If so, how will the back end hold up. This game has back door written all over it.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i wouldnt be surprised at all if sparty was able to score quite a bit.. good chance ill be on some kind of Thorne prop, passing tds most likely. that was money with purdue qb last week, if osu is gonna take walker away, i assume that would be the plan, then they def will be exposed to the play action where thorne has been really good.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Agree 100%. The Pac 12 is the most unpredictable conference, at least to me. I have no idea how anyone makes sense out most of the teams. UCLA has always been the most unpredictable to me, but this year they have plenty of competition. I wouldn't risk a penny on Cal/Stanford. Cal is a little more predictable and at least has a tough defense at times. Stanford beat Oregon with ease, but gets blown out just as easily with anyone.
The only two that interest me at all are Oregon/Utah and Oregon State/Arizona St, but I doubt I bet either game.
Nevada/Air Force interests me a lot. Those are two of the most reliable teams in the country and I haven't lost on either team all year. I don't have any real feel for a side here. It's one of those games where I feel like I should be able to handicap it, but I can't do it
2daBank
Voice of Reason
lol.. i feel exactly same way bout af/nevada, i was just bout to ask if you were doing anything with it, i just passed cause i really dont know wtf gonna happen, i lean nevada but not strong enough to play them.
there been a lot of times over the years i was into playing the beavers as dogs in the pac12, typically i like the uncertainty cause it breads upsets, i did play trees vs ducks (just ats not ml), play some other random dogs here and there, i just dont waste a lot of time trying to cap them the same way i do other games or take anything away from how ive seen any of them play cause it rarely the same from one week to the next!!! i could get talked into beavers this week but sure feels like we should be getting a few more points! asu on the road is a time bomb waiting to happen with turnovers and penalties, you wouldnt think that be true of a Herm team but sure seems like it is!! Beavers been nails at home and what the odds asu plays b2b strong road games?
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Added Pam Maldonado picks. They all look possible to me except Illinois. Illinois may be too, but I don't even know who they're playing.
I'd be more apt to play Ohio St/Mich St over than Florida/Missouri,, but that SMU play interests me. I've been on SMU all year, including a futures bet over six wins and I think they have a shot. The two drawbacks are SMU's best WR is out--and he's one of the best in the country-- and I hate to bet against the best D. SMU has gotten a lot better this year under Jim Leavitt. They have bunch of hitters, but they aren't in a class with Cincinnati's D
Best Bet: SMU (+11.5)
Wake Forest (+4.5) ML +165
Iowa St (+3.5) ML +145
Illinois (+12.5)
UTSA (-4.5)
Ov 69 (Florida/Missouri)
I'd be more apt to play Ohio St/Mich St over than Florida/Missouri,, but that SMU play interests me. I've been on SMU all year, including a futures bet over six wins and I think they have a shot. The two drawbacks are SMU's best WR is out--and he's one of the best in the country-- and I hate to bet against the best D. SMU has gotten a lot better this year under Jim Leavitt. They have bunch of hitters, but they aren't in a class with Cincinnati's D
Best Bet: SMU (+11.5)
Wake Forest (+4.5) ML +165
Iowa St (+3.5) ML +145
Illinois (+12.5)
UTSA (-4.5)
Ov 69 (Florida/Missouri)
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
That's the way I'm leaning on it. I like Oregon State all the way. Only question is if they are looking forward to Oregon next week. The game is meaningless for both teams and they have no rivalry at all, so it just depends on which team wants to play
So far my only bets are Houston and BC.
I like N Dame too--I always like N Dame at home-- but know nothing about Georgia Tech. I had high hopes for that coach, but they have had a nothing season. What do you think? Are they still playing hard? Are they any good at all?
I'm taking a break from handicapping to watch Houston kick butt. I expect to see that superb return man do some damage and Houston has a freshman RB who is going to be a star. He doesn't start, but he plays, and they like to bring him in late in the game when the other team is getting tired. I expect both of them to help me out tonight and let the Houston D do the rest
So far my only bets are Houston and BC.
I like N Dame too--I always like N Dame at home-- but know nothing about Georgia Tech. I had high hopes for that coach, but they have had a nothing season. What do you think? Are they still playing hard? Are they any good at all?
I'm taking a break from handicapping to watch Houston kick butt. I expect to see that superb return man do some damage and Houston has a freshman RB who is going to be a star. He doesn't start, but he plays, and they like to bring him in late in the game when the other team is getting tired. I expect both of them to help me out tonight and let the Houston D do the rest
DapperDan
Pretty much a regular
Nice week last week Tahoe....
Checking in....although I wish I had sooner as I'm already opposite side on a few of ya'lls plays :-( still working on writeups (will be up for a while working on them as I got nothing written down yet but I've been going over numbers since 6pm) but I had already locked in wake +4.5, FSU +2, and cal 1.5x and michigan state....cal can run the ball well and stan we shouldnt hold much weight in last weeks game where 2 dozen players were held out....BC been getting gashed on ground and FSU can run, FSU one strength is run defense and jurkovec aint the same man, never had great of an arm anyways, I didnt watch them last week but two weeks ago when he was back at vtech throwing ducks just vtech secondary blows and very soft schedule for BC
Checking in....although I wish I had sooner as I'm already opposite side on a few of ya'lls plays :-( still working on writeups (will be up for a while working on them as I got nothing written down yet but I've been going over numbers since 6pm) but I had already locked in wake +4.5, FSU +2, and cal 1.5x and michigan state....cal can run the ball well and stan we shouldnt hold much weight in last weeks game where 2 dozen players were held out....BC been getting gashed on ground and FSU can run, FSU one strength is run defense and jurkovec aint the same man, never had great of an arm anyways, I didnt watch them last week but two weeks ago when he was back at vtech throwing ducks just vtech secondary blows and very soft schedule for BC
lb49ers
Pretty much a regular
Virtual Locks
Joey Galloway (12-9-1)
Baylor (+1)
Kent St (-13.5)
Usually he plays one of the powerhouse teams or totals so it is odd he has taken Kent St.
Matt "The People" Barrie (missed his record but it is bad)
Alabama (-20.5)
Notre Dame (-17)
I know you aren't tracking these but figured I would list them since it is the last week.
Joey Galloway (12-9-1)
Baylor (+1)
Kent St (-13.5)
Usually he plays one of the powerhouse teams or totals so it is odd he has taken Kent St.
Matt "The People" Barrie (missed his record but it is bad)
Alabama (-20.5)
Notre Dame (-17)
I know you aren't tracking these but figured I would list them since it is the last week.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
he looked good last week, he gonna carve fsu i think.. i agree fsu will be able to run tho, bc struggles with run 1st qbs, just think they get noles behind the chains enough and travis wont be able to throw for 1st downs and wont keep up what i think bc gonna score. last week that kid playing qb for miami missed a ton of wide open guys in 1st half and still threw for 300+ and 4 tds, he was just nervous in 1st half i think cause he had wrs running wide wide open, Jurk wont miss those imo.. the over might be stronger than either side for real cause i do think both offenses gonna have a lot of success. it def worries me i think travis will have lot of success on ground, i just think BC better with Jurk, of course i thought they could win the acc coming into the season so im obviously high on them...
Clemson is basically the opposite so it kinda weird im on them and bc while you on fsu and wake, cause i expect clemson to just hammer wake with the run game and totally control the game with their offense, when wake does get ball i think clemson d will get them back off the field quick.. so i got one run team vs high powered passing attack, you got the other run team vs what i think gonna be a pretty good passing attack! lol..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
the ppl are 8-14, lol, they probably split those, i aint going against bama, ill take the points with gtech tho!!
joey a putz, i dunno how he stays above .500!!! lol.. i dont like either of those but dunno if ill be against either.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I didn't see him last week either, but he definitely was throwing ducks against V Tech. I still like his toughness and BC's toughness at home against a less than tough FSU team that may be less than motivated. I just bet BC ML
What are you thinking on N Dame/G Tech, 2daBank. I like N Dame at home.
Not many on my radar this week. The only early game I have is BC. Looking at Iowa St +4 and W Virginia -2x, but no decision so far. I might jump in at the last minute and play Ohio State. Or maybe just the first half tt and side. Nothing decided there
I'm going to be checking all outlets for news on Armstrong and I lean slightly to Virginia if he plays, maybe the over. Like K State, but think I might get points if I wait long enough. That's about it, unless I play Bama the same way I'm looking at Ohio State
I'll save the late game for tomorrow
That Houston game didn't play out like I thought it would. Losing that freshman RB really hurt Houston. The public hasn't caught on to him yet, but he's dynamite. Houston was erratic after that, but they covered for me. Always a pleasure to be 1-0 before I get out of bed on Saturday
We were right to pass on that Nevada/A Force game. Those teams are too close to handicap. At least they are for me. I do a lot better when I just pass on games where I've won money on both teams all year, but can't see any difference between them
See you in the morning
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i leaned gtech with the points but i dont think their qb playing so just a pass for me.
i gotta assume armstrong playing even tho this line doesnt make much sense to me if he is, i love pitt but i dont think they capable of covering this kind of number vs a high powered passing attack.
i thought houston dominated that game for the most part, if it wasnt for a couple picks by tune in the red zone then that slew of penalties on houiston that basically gave memphis 7 points and helped them to a fg on the next drive (deserving penalties, not refs fault, houston lost their cool) it woulda been a total ass kicking, glad they got the cover it was well deserved, i was rooting for ya as i relaxed with my tune passing yards over winner!!
im looking at bc/over, navy. clemson, rutgers in the morning along with some props on the osu game.. uva, cuse, uab/utsa under along with a few bama props in afternoon.. so far that bout what i got.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i ended up splitting BC and over 55. i dunno if that will turn out smart or dumb? lol,.. i do worry noles will be able to run on them with travis. that said my guy Jurkovec gonna make my guy @DapperDan eat his words bout having a "noodle arm"!! that simply isnt true, he was just rusty vs hokies and didnt need to throw much, he gonna torch the noles for 300+ today!! pretty much played the morning a little lighter than afternoon where i like ull, uva, cuse, gophers, navy, and the uab/utsa under. plus all my props posted in prop thread.. gl everyone
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Give me "PROPS"
went 3-2 last week but felt like could have easily been 4-1 or even 5-0, lets see if we can do better today!! ark/bama Robinson ov 84.5 rush yards.. the way to attack hogs defense is to run it right at their 3 man fronts, saban should be in bad mood still from the lsu game and that usually...
