ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 12

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Stanford Steve and Bear picks are in as well as McElroy's. Steve is usually money when he pick Stanford games, but Cal and Stanford are both so bad this year I don't know if it's possible to picks that game

Bear must be trying to get even with only a few weeks left. He has nine picks, the most of any week of the season

Stanford Steve— Week 12 (0-0) Season (33-24) Best Bet (4-2) 2020 Season (32-27)
UCLA -3 Best Bet
Bama/Arkansas u 58.5
Virginia +14.5 (only if Armstrong is back)
Cal -1.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 12 (0-0) Season (44-31) 2020 Season (42-39)
AF (+1.5)
Cinc (-11.5)
Ohio St (-19)
Ga Tech (+17)
Utah (-3)
USC (+3)
Kansas St (-1)
Troy (+10)

Greg McElroy— Week 12 (0-0) Season (19-14)
Kansas St -1
Iowa State +3x
North Texas -10

Phil Steele-- Week 12 (0-0) Season (39-41) 2020 Season (27-40)
Army -36x
Michigan -15x
Ohio State -19
Oregon State +3
Oklahoma St -10
Weber State -22x
Yale-8x
Nevada +1

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 11 (0-0) Season (25-31) 2020 Season (35-37)
Indy (+7) 23-26
Minn (+1) 28-27
NO (+2) 26-24
Sea (+1.5) 27-23
Pitt (+6) 24-21

My Picks— Week 12 (0-0) Season (47-23) 2020 Season (48-31)
Houston -9
BC ML
Ohio State -6x first Q
Bama -7 first Q
N Dame -17
Minnesota -7
N Dame ML
Bama -12 first H
Parlay, one unit, Virginia +15x/Pitt/Va o 66

Gameday Super Dog Pick, Season Record
Lee—Navy 7-3-1
Desmond— S Carolina 7-4
Kirk—Nebraska 6-4-1
Reece—UAB 6-5
David— Colorado 5-6
 
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Good performance again by the ML dog pickers except for Bender. Pam Maldonado is having a good year but is no longer picking just ML dogs so I put her in a category of her own

ML Dog Pickers:

Bill Trocci— Week 12 (0-0) Season (16-17)
Wake Forest
SMU
Oregon

Zac Al-Khateeb— Week 12 (0-0) Season (15-18)
Michigan State
Wake Forest
Missouri

Bill Bender-- Week 12 (0-0) Season (9-24)
Oregon
USC
S Carolina

Some ML Dog, Some Not:
Pamela Maldonado— Week 12 (0-0) Season (14-15
SMU (+11.5) Best Bet
Wake Forest (+4.5) ML +165
Iowa St (+3.5) ML +145
Ohio State -18x
Illinois (+12.5)
UTSA (-4.5)
Ov 69 (Florida/Missouri)
 
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ESPN D-League Pickers:

Bill Connelly—Season 29-23
SDSU -10.5
Ohio St/Mich St u 67
Ark St/Ga St u 65.5
ECU -4
Marshall -15

Tyler Fulghum—Season 15-13
Boise State -27

Joe Fortenbaugh—Season 21-21
Ohio St/Mich St o 67
Alabama -12.5 1st H
Ole Miss/Vandy u 64.5
Wyoming +6

David M. Hale—Season 17-16
Nebraska +9.5
MTSU -3.5
USC +3

Doug Kezirian—Season 19-23
Louisville 1st H -10.5
Louisville -19.5
Boston College -1.5
Hawai'i +2.5

The Bear— Week 12 (0-0) Season (20-35) 2020 Season (25-21)
Oregon +3
UCLA -3
Auburn -7.5
Okla State -10
Oregon State +3
Colorado +6.5
South Alabama +28
Penn State -17.5
TCU -21
Bank Picks— Week 12 (0-0) (14-18)
 
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Colin was so proud of himself on show today, acting like he has it all figured out after 1 good week! he failed to mention how much he just loved garbage ass browns! Lol. I thought that was pretty odd to begin with considering he bangs on Faker as much as I do, not sure why he thought baker was gonna beat a hoody defense? I didn’t.
 
s--k said:
That's always makes ya feel good huh!
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And what was even better is that except for Iowa, every one of them was a boat race and I knew I was going to win after the first possession or two. Those are the ones I really like.

I didn't doubt Iowa was going to win, but if you bet on Iowa you have to accept going in they are going to play close to the vest and Ferentz is going to play to win by one.
 
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I see games that interest me, but nothing strong enough to bet so far.

Slight lean--I haven't had time to handicap anything so far so these are strictly first impressions--to Utah ( I hear there are some injury concerns with Utah), BC, W Virginia (seems strange to see WV laying points to Texas) Ore State, Hawaii, Houston, UTSA, ULL, UCLA (looks like a sure thing, but they are the most unpredictable team in the country).

What do you see in the ACC this week, 3daBank? BC, Wake, and Louisville all look good, although I can't see laying 19 on the road with anyone
 
Added SVP picks, added Stanford Steve Best Bet (UCLA)

On Daily Wager Steve said something I agree with--this time of year you can lay the heavy lumber with good teams playing teams just playing out the stream. They elites keep getting better and playing with more precision down the stretch. The teams that just want the season to be over don't offer much resistance. Louisville/Duke was the perfect example

He said he expected Ohio State to cover with ease and the total to go over. I like Ohio State this week, but like the over as well. Haven't pulled the trigger
 
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s--k said:
And SVP had the graphic up for South Alabama at Tennessee, said he wanted them, but was going with Troy instead
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that shit was hilarious when he asked steve for his pick and steve says "we got a problem" cause he was against Scott in the ucla/usc game, scott looks around and says "no problems here, you see my record, fresh out of problems"!! lmao.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added SVP picks, added Stanford Steve Best Bet (UCLA)

On Daily Wager Steve said something I agree with--this time of year you can lay the heavy lumber with good teams playing teams just playing out the stream. They elites keep getting better and playing with more precision down the stretch. The teams that just want the season to be over don't offer much resistance. Louisville/Duke was the perfect example

He said he expected Ohio State to cover with ease and the total to go over. I like Ohio State this week, but like the over as well. Haven't pulled the trigger
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so many ways to attack the osu game i havnt made my mind up either, whether it lay the wood, osu tt over, game over, osu props (stroud passing yards and maybe tds), gonna play something along those lines just havnt figured out what yet. lol.

Steve seemed to really like Cal vs trees on the podcast, whenever Steve is vehement about fading trees i listen as he seems pretty tuned into that team and when to fade them!! Said it didnt matter if Mcgee was back or not.
 
I know everyone is sold on Ohio St scoring 45+ and rolling.....is there no chance that Walker goes for 200+ and Sparty keeps it close? Probably not but it seems within the realm of possible outcomes
 
lb49ers said:
Cowherd's Blazin' 5

Indy (+7) 23-26
Minn (+1) 28-27
NO (+2) 26-24
Sea (+1.5) 27-23
Pitt (+6) 24-21
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this guy is so all over the place,, 2-3 weeks ago he was belly aching saying the big favs cover everything and all ya gotta do is take the better qb, now today he says "for some reason dogs are doing well this year", lol.. He finally off a good week or 2 and he still sounding like a total square changing his perception every freaking week!! Not even mentioning how the 1st 2 months he picks mostly favs and says how unusual it is cause he a dog bettor, now this week he says 1st time he has played all dogs!! lol.. guy a mess right now, this season has him shook!! i do kinda like his card tho, not touching many of them but if i had to guess i think he prob goes 3-2..

Dunno how ya betting 5 dogs this week and not taking the best, ugliest, hold your nose special, ultimate line "value" play that fading everyone recent perception and play the Houston Texans??!!! That might be only nfl side i bet this week! seriously! lol.
 
ive never seen SVP on so many favs!! they all certainly make sense as his kind of plays, guess it just unusual for there to be so many dogs the masses like this week. nothing freaks me out more than a "public" dog!! i know we talk all the time how that shit dont mean anything and no better than flipping a coin but it still scares me being on side of a really popular doggy!! lol.. 1st of week i thought the cincy line was crazy high, still do, but i dont like the fact everyone jumping off the cincy bandwagon, not covering 4 in a row as huge favs probably draws lots of disdain from the masses, lol..
 
i cant back Utah, ive been thinking since beginning of pac12 play that ducks would shit the bed at some point, this seems like as good a time as any for it to happen but im not feeling it.. Line screams utah but kinda think it be more likely they lose this one then turn around and clip ducks in the pac12 champioship game. Of course i think Bear likes Ducks so ill probably leave alone, feels kinda like sooners last week where i agreed with him! lol.. SVP called this his "GPG" (general principal game) think he has historically been pretty good with those.
 
why the hell is bear laying 17.5 with psu? i know he likes to fade what he thinks are popular sides but i cant imagine a bunch of ppl are lining up to back buttgers? i do actually lean to rutgers, just dunno how ya lay 17.5 in a game 20 points could be enough to win?
 
2daBank said:
i cant back Utah, ive been thinking since beginning of pac12 play that ducks would shit the bed at some point, these seems like as good a time as any for it to happen but im not feeling it.. Line screams utah but kinda think it be more likely they lose this one then turn around and clip ducks in the pac12 champioship game. Of course i think Bear likes Ducks so ill probably leave alone, feels kinda like sooners last week where i agreed with him! lol.. SVP called this his "GPG" (general principal game) think he has historically been pretty good with those.
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I've been looking forward to betting Utah since the first day of the season, but they haven't been the usual Utah team this year. I think all their problems early in the season were because of the impact the death of the two players had on the coaches and players

They've made a recovery, but they still haven't show the edge they usually have, so I'm undecided on this one. I do like them better since I saw Bear picked Oregon. And, as usual, his reasoning was mainly gibberish, including he leaned to Utah at first, but feels like they'll be a public play.

I won't bet Oregon in any case, but I'm still looking at Utah
 
aplous said:
I know everyone is sold on Ohio St scoring 45+ and rolling.....is there no chance that Walker goes for 200+ and Sparty keeps it close? Probably not but it seems within the realm of possible outcomes
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I think it's a low scoring game and MSU will do everything in their power to limit possessions/keep the clock running. Also not beyond the realm of possibility that the MSU pass defense, which we ALL know is shitty, steps up and plays their best game of the year.
 
2daBank said:
i cant back Utah, ive been thinking since beginning of pac12 play that ducks would shit the bed at some point, this seems like as good a time as any for it to happen but im not feeling it.. Line screams utah but kinda think it be more likely they lose this one then turn around and clip ducks in the pac12 champioship game. Of course i think Bear likes Ducks so ill probably leave alone, feels kinda like sooners last week where i agreed with him! lol.. SVP called this his "GPG" (general principal game) think he has historically been pretty good with those.
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Yep think the Civil War next week is where betting against the Ducks can be lucrative.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I've been looking forward to betting Utah since the first day of the season, but they haven't been the usual Utah team this year. I think all their problems early in the season were because of the impact the death of the two players had on the coaches and players

They've made a recovery, but they still haven't show the edge they usually have, so I'm undecided on this one. I do like them better since I saw Bear picked Oregon. And, as usual, his reasoning was mainly gibberish, including he leaned to Utah at first, but feels like they'll be a public play.

I won't bet Oregon in any case, but I'm still looking at Utah
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LMFAO, bear seriously sounds borderline retarded half the time, how that guy got his job ill never know, was it one them deals like walmart hiring the "special" ppl to greet at the front? kinda like a quota thing by espn? they are the biggest cucks around!! How the fuck he figure Utah is gonna be the public side? not that i care much bit there no way that true, the masses dont bet against the 3rd ranked team vs a team barely in top 25!!! utes will be popular among "sharps" i have no doubt but certainly not overall. I think Brown might be a bit better than he gets credit for, i havnt watched him a ton this year but i thought he was decent when he played for BC and the few times ive seen him he was able to do what they needed him to. Im just not sure utes defensive front can handle ducks oline and run game with bringing extra's into the box in which case i think brown will be up to the task of making them pay. That said i have no interest being on Bears side!! i do kinda hope ducks win then i will almost for sure play Utes in the pac12 champ game rematch!!
 
KJ said:
I think it's a low scoring game and MSU will do everything in their power to limit possessions/keep the clock running. Also not beyond the realm of possibility that the MSU pass defense, which we ALL know is shitty, steps up and plays their best game of the year.
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OSU just has too many weapons on outside imo. mfers have 3 nfl players vs a bad secondary, im not buying it.
 
aplous said:
I know everyone is sold on Ohio St scoring 45+ and rolling.....is there no chance that Walker goes for 200+ and Sparty keeps it close? Probably not but it seems within the realm of possible outcomes
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i think sparty gonna have to pass well to stay in it, dont think walker will have success unless they force osu to respect the passing game. i dont see any world where osu wont be able to pass all over them, i dont think that means sparty cant stay in it cause i still have questions about osu defense, i just think they will have to score to do so. some keep away be nice also but end the day those drives better end in 7 cause i would be shocked if stroud and those wrs didnt have a big day.
 
2daBank said:
OSU just has too many weapons on outside imo. mfers have 3 nfl players vs a bad secondary, im not buying it.
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I can see Michigan State scoring points, but if they gave up 30 to Michigan at home, I don't see how they do any better against the Buckeyes on the road. And Ohio State has never had any problem coming out flat the week before they play Michigan
 
TahoeLegend said:
I can see Michigan State scoring points, but if they gave up 30 to Michigan at home, I don't see how they do any better against the Buckeyes on the road. And Ohio State has never had any problem coming out flat the week before they play Michigan
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oh for sure, i still have doubts about the osu defense, if someone beats them it wouldnt shock me at all, just think they will have to score a bunch to do so cause not many secondaries can deal with all those NFL caliber wrs osu has on the field, certainly not this crappy spartians unit.
 
i tried asking this in VC thread on this game but nobody answered me, does sparty run much of the rpo stuff? that what i think can still create a huge problem for osu, just havnt seen them face many teams that run it well since it carving them up the 1st 2 weeks of the year.
 
2daBank said:
Steve seemed to really like Cal vs trees on the podcast, whenever Steve is vehement about fading trees i listen as he seems pretty tuned into that team and when to fade them!! Said it didnt matter if Mcgee was back or not.
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He's been money on Stanford for years, no matter which way he goes on their games, but I can't see laying that many points with a Cal team that has been horseshit most of the year so that one's a pass for me

What about all the good ACC games this week? What are you thinking on Clemson/WF, BC/FSU (I'm going BC, but still want your opinion), Pitt/Virginia. That one looks to me like over and Virginia+14x if Armstrong plays and Steve said his information was he could have played last week, but they held him out to make sure he was ready for this game which has division title implications.

You've been money all year on ACC (well, except for that Pitt under in one game), what do you recommend this week?
 
2daBank said:
oh for sure, i still have doubts about the osu defense, if someone beats them it wouldnt shock me at all, just think they will have to score a bunch to do so cause not many secondaries can deal with all those NFL caliber wrs osu has on the field, certainly not this crappy spartians unit.
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Crappy is right! Dead last in pass defense in the FBS. 130th out of 130 teams. I can't believe they can actually be last and still have the record they have. And they haven't played a bunch of great passing teams either.
 
Anyone have any feelings about Houston/Memphis tonight?

I can't see one thing favoring Memphis, unless the fact Houston has already clinched a birth in the AAC title game somehow has them flat for their last home game. I guess it could happen, but it looks to me like Memphis is more likely to be ready to get the season over with.

Everything else favors Houston, including the fact Memphis has lost every road game this year except for a 5-point victory over an Arkansas State team that has one win all season against FBS teams

I had Louisville last night and this game looks like the same thing, except Houston is at home and laying fewer points.

Any thoughts?
 
TahoeLegend said:
He's been money on Stanford for years, no matter which way he goes on their games, but I can't see laying that many points with a Cal team that has been horseshit most of the year so that one's a pass for me

What about all the good ACC games this week? What are you thinking on Clemson/WF, BC/FSU (I'm going BC, but still want your opinion), Pitt/Virginia. That one looks to me like over and Virginia+14x if Armstrong plays and Steve said his information was he could have played last week, but they held him out to make sure he was ready for this game which has division title implications.

You've been money all year on ACC (well, except for that Pitt under in one game), what do you recommend this week?
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lol, that pitt under was awful, game script went nothing like i expected! lol.. maybe if they woulda listened to me they might not have lost that game!!!

Assuming Armstrong is fine that number seems stupid high to me. I love pitt but they have shown how vulnerable they are to good passing games and uva's is bout as good it gets.. I suppose the one concern would be pitt will prob get some hit on armstrong, will he be able to hold up? We could be in a tie back and forth game, he takes one shot and pitt reels off 3-4 scores in a row while he sits! other than that i just dont see how they pull away from uva? kinda shocked the total isnt in the 70s! I have to look closer but i feel like this game pretty much has everything we see in games with totals lined in the 70s, not sure what im missing side wise and total as i think both at least 4 points off.

You should already know im all bout BC!! glad i waited to bet them cause i liked -3, i really dont understand why noles taking money but i suppose if ppl are just using season numbers and not properly adjusting for BC with Jurkovec they could see value in the noles, i did notice in several power rankings they had fsu much higher than i do and BC much lower, but again i dunno how ya dont make a huge adjustment for Jurk playing qb? i would agree where they have BC had he not come back. I do worry that Noles run game is gonna be a problem for BC, they have struggled with all the run 1st qbs they have seen so i suspect Travis will have plenty of success. That said whenever BC gets them behind the chains i dont trust travis to be able to keep drives alive with his arm. On the other side i expect BC will be able to throw all over this noles pass d, last week VanDyke left all kinds of yards and tds on the field in the 1st half and he still threw for over 300 yards and 4 scores, he looked tight to me early on as he was missing wide open guys in the 1st half, dont think Jurk will do that. Ultimately i dont think fsu run game will be able to match what BC should be able to do thru the air. i like BC a lot and i lean over 55 as well, only thing that holding me back on the over is both teams have played really solid red zone d.

cant believe it has finally happened but this 1st game i can remember where i think i may just be on clemson. passed on ncst against wake last week cause just dont trust that coaching staff which proved to be smart, god they are terrible, why in gods name when ya have 2 stud rbs you insist on letting Leary throw it 40+ times instead of try to control the game and limit wake possessions is beyond me? Luckily i learned long ago you cant trust that staff at all, total coaching mismatch. I do trust Clemson coaching staff so if Shipley is healthy as i have heard he is i dont think clemson gonna let this game turn into a shootout, fully expect them to use shipley to totally control this game and bleed the clock. nobody really talks about but wake qb hasnt been all that great the last few weeks and now he facing what will be far and away his biggest test from a talent and scheme standpoint and i dont think he will have nearly the amount of plays to figure it out. Laying points with clemson makes me a bit queezy but i think they are easily the right side here.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Anyone have any feelings about Houston/Memphis tonight?

I can't see one thing favoring Memphis, unless the fact Houston has already clinched a birth in the AAC title game somehow has them flat for their last home game. I guess it could happen, but it looks to me like Memphis is more likely to be ready to get the season over with.

Everything else favors Houston, including the fact Memphis has lost every road game this year except for a 5-point victory over an Arkansas State team that has one win all season against FBS teams

I had Louisville last night and this game looks like the same thing, except Houston is at home and laying fewer points.

Any thoughts?
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i wrote pretty much same thing in the dog thread, nothing bout memphis screams "bet us on the road", then throw in the fact ecu ran 102 freaking plays to their 50 last week and now on a short week and i dont see how ya could like them? it tough for me to lay over a td with anyone but that only way i could go here. I like Tune over 241.5 passing yards, that seems a good 20-30 yards short to me, only way i dont think he hits that would be houston boat races them mainly behind defense/special teams scoring and setting up short fields to where houston has no reason to pass. Really dunno why it that short but this be the second time this year i thought they were short with a Tune passing yards prop and the 1st cashed easy midway thru 3rd qrtr :)
 
2daBank said:
cant believe it has finally happened but this 1st game i can remember where i think i may just be on clemson.
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I'm as strong as you are on BC. I've liked them all season and like them even more that their QB is back. I always like the toughest team and BC is a bunch of tough guys. Even the QB is a tough guy. And the fact it will be cold makes it even better. Not freezing, although it will be freezing when the FSU guys wake up and leave for the game, but low 40s.

I'm also a lean to Clemson. My only concern there is how much better the WF QB is than Clemson's. The Clemson kid looks bad every single game. Almost every single play.

Houston is only -330 on the ML, so may bet that as a hedge, but I think they cover. I see some -8x and even a couple of -8 on Circa, but it went back up before I could bet it. I think I can get that before kickoff if I stay alert
 
TahoeLegend said:
I'm as strong as you are on BC. I've liked them all season and like them even more that their QB is back. I always like the toughest team and BC is a bunch of tough guys. Even the QB is a tough guy. And the fact it will be cold makes it even better. Not freezing, although it will be freezing when the FSU guys wake up and leave for the game, but low 40s.

I'm also a lean to Clemson. My only concern there is how much better the WF QB is than Clemson's. The Clemson kid looks bad every single game. Almost every single play.

Houston is only -330 on the ML, but I think they cover. I might bet them both ways as a hedge
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clemsons QB wasnt even good vs ucon!! lol.. in a perfect world he wont have to throw more than 10-12 times! lol.. i trust clemson far more than NCst coaches to be smart and not get into a shootout but control this game with the offense. when you face a defense that you can do anything you want against a lot these coaches fall into the trap to simply score as much and fast as possible, for some reason they cant figure out that basically what wake wants!! i totally expect Dabo sucks the air out this ball and turns this game into a total grinder which something wake hasnt played all year!! they still been scoring a ton of points lately but that cause all the possessions these dumb ass teams giving them, look at Hartman numbers the last 2 weeks, not even 50% completion in either and 5 picks! those numbers not gonna score them points when clemson limits the game to 10-11 possessions!!
 
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