ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 11

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Best week of the year for the handicappers, with Greg McElroy and Adam Kramer leading the pack. These guys are doing a good job this year. Hard to find any group of handicappers where nine of eleven are in the black this late in the year. The only two in the red are two of the Daily Wager pickers

Steve and Bear picks so far. These are from Daily Wager, not their podcast, although Steve's have been the same both places all year

ESPN Pickers:
Stanford Steve— (0-0) (23-18) 2020-21 Total (71-56) Best Bet (6-4)
Fresno St -9x Best Bet
Baylor -2x
Army/Troy u 46

Scott Van Pelt—(0-0) (44-39) 2020-21 Total (99-77)
Arkansas +3x
Virginia +4x
Marshall +1
Miss St +16
Washington +13
Texas Tech-3x
Texas -7 (GPG)

The Bear—(0-0) (31-18) 2020-21 Total (61-65) Bank Picks—(2-1) (13-14)
Texas Tech -3x
Louisville +7
Wake Forest +3x

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
David——Tennessee lose (8-2) 2021 Season 8-6
Kirk——Liberty win (6-4) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Desmond—Tennessee lose (6-4) 2021 Season 9-5
Reece——Maryland lose (5-5) 2021 Season 9-5
Lee— Stanford lose (3-7) 2021 Season 10-3-1

Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(0-0) (58-36)
Texas -7
Arkansas +3
Wake Forest -3x
Oregon St -14
Baylor -3
Cincinnati -5x
UCLA/Arizona o 78
UConn +14x

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— (0-0) (23-18) 2020-21 Total (66-77)

Phil Steele—(0-0) (31-25) 2020-21 Total (78-87)
Colorado St + 9
MTSU -10x
UConn +14x
Oregon -13
Iowa St -1
Rutgers +10

Pamela Maldonado—(0-0) (26-23) 2021 (17-23)
Washington +13
Cal +13x
Florida/S Carolina o 59
N dame/Navy u 39x
Michigan -31

My Picks—(0-0) (33-25) 2020-21 Total (108-65)
(Parlays—(0-0) (13-5) (7 wins were teasers)
Baylor -2x
LSU -3
LSU ML (-150)
Tulane -1
USC tt o 49
Teaser--E Carolina +12/USC -27
Teaser--Alabama -5/TBD

ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—(0-0) (16-12) 2021 (17-15)
Tennessee -20x
Oregon -13
Illinois -6x

Greg McElroy—(0-0) (20-10)
Texas fh -5
N Dame/Navy u 39x
N Caro/W Forest o 77

Joe Fortenbaugh—(0-0) (13-16) 2021 (25-33)
Auburn -1x
Miss State +16
I State -1x

Doug Kezirian—(0-0) (13-20) 2021 (22-28)
Auburn -1x
Navy +15x
Ole Miss +12

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(0-0) (11-19) 2021 (9-30)
North Carolina
TCU
Kansas St

Mike DeCourcy—(0-0) (11-19) 2021 (15-24)
N Carolina
Maryland
aTm

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-0) (4-26) 2021 (17-23)
TCU
N Carolina
Oklahoma St

Bill Trocci—(0-0) (6-24) 2021 (16-23)
Louisville
TCU
Washington
 
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One bet so far:
Baylor -2x.
Lean:
LSU -3
LSU ML
Tulane -1
Louisville +7 (interested in 2daBank's thoughts. The last couple of games The Ville has looked like I expected them to, but he knows them better than I do)
W Virginia +8
TCU +7 (Maybe I should be looking at the over on this one)
 
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I didn’t realize Greg mac was doing so well, goes to show how little attention I pay cause his podcast has turned into prob my second fav after BTB.

I’m not super bullish on ville as much as I am thinking their d can def limit clemson limited offense. On that front I listened to the BTB pod last night and they made a couple really good points that are gonna make me go back and look some more (prob won’t have time till this evening) pertaining to how lot of ville defensive improvement has came from blitzing, in itself doesn’t bother me I like aggressive d’s but surprisingly DJ actually has really strong numbers against the blitz, so I go from thinking tigers qb situation a bit of a mess to having to maybe worry little more that DJ could potentially play a much better game. I’m still not sold this means clemson can surpass their TT which I assume around 29/30 but maybe I should be putting them closer to the 24-27 expected point range opposed to the 20-21 I was thinking where +7 against them would obviously fed like a lot. Question will be Ville offense and what Cunningham can do? Mobile qbs have had some success against Clemson and more alarming for them (surprising to me) teams have just had success running on them period, 2 of last 3 they have given up over 200 on the ground! That was unthinkable to me at beginning this year so while they made a fair point that a few weeks ago this number woulda been -10 I also think it reasonable to be downgrading clemson if their defense not as strong as we thought up front at point of attack which supposed to be their strength. I dunno, still more work to do, it def dog, under or nothing for me here.

Wanna look more at unc/wake also, believe wake ended up being their play for week and think they make a really good case (kinda annoys me when I listen to their pod before I’m further along/have more posted cause we often have some the same thoughts but if I hear them say it before I do I gotta give credit! Lol). Anyways unc def seems somewhat fugazi to me, wake only laying -3.5 at home def seems short as I don’t think it really a argument which team is better, unc has just had about as easy a schedule as possible, they have seriously avoided playing any the better acc teams unless you count pitt but they got them recently and I think pitt has regressed as the season has went on as Slovis has proven to be terrible. Heels havnt seen any the teams who beat wake, those were the better defensive teams in the league who outside of clemson (which was a shootout) have created havoc at the mesh point and forced wake into turnovers, I don’t think unc defense is capable of doing much of that: in a game w a 77 total I think wake d the one more capable of a few stops. Still gotta look more at this one also but that where I lean.
 
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You like tcu huh? We been talking bout this game in other threads so don’t need to rehash it all but man I feel like they been fortunate. Their string of what look like solid wins on surface I don’t think any one of those ranked teams started and/or finished the game with their starting qb against tcu. The obvious here is texas gets out fast to leads and tcu been a much better 2nd half team, seems so obvious to bet texas 1st half or if you like tcu wait till live or at half. Far as line goes I think -7 pretty fair, to me texas unquestionably the more talented (sometimes better) team. I think Patterson being on texas staff is a big advantage as he obviously know a lot these tcu players well and prob has a good idea how best to defend a guy like Duggan who def has weaknesses.
 
Here is Bet the Board. I will have a summary up by the end of the day

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My initial bets this week are:

LSU -2.5 (larger than normal)
Oregon -13
TCU +7 - No bet now
N Carolina +4 No bet and have changed to Wake -3.5

I have been busy the past 2 days and have not gone back to see where lines are now. There is a possibility, as there is every week, that after more study I will take some wagers down, but I grabbed the lines I liked when I saw them.

One thought I had right off the bat was the TCU Texas line looked fishy and seemed like they were begging you to bet TCU. I still think it stinks and my gut is that is a bet I may well get off of...still have it for now

I posted my record in prior thread, but as I recall my initial bets went 0-3 2 weeks ago and 3-1 last week
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I like betting W Virginia at home--even though I got my worst beat of the season in that TCU game--and my only hesitation is the noon start. How do you see that game?
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Obviously, it will be a high-scoring game. West Va does not have a good pass defense, but Oklahoma is not the passing team of old. WVU is adequate against the run. Just think WVU will hang around all day. They lost by 10 versus TCU at home and to Kansas at home by 12, but that was an overtime game where weird shit happened.

When the early lines came out +9 seemed high, but it was +8 or +7.5 when I was able to bet it, so I grabbed +9 -115 when I saw it yesterday.
 
I never noticed till @He Hate Me just mentioned wvu lost by 12 to ku, I knew that game went to ot, been thinking all year that was a 7 point game, how the hell that happen? Ku scored then wvu chance they got a fumble or pick6? Why the fuck wouldn’t they just fall down and the game be over? How ignorant! lol.

Anyways, I don’t have much faith in wvu anymore like I did early, the offense seems to have regressed or maybe it better d’s? That said I dunno why the hell anoyone would be looking to lay more than a td with Ou n Morgantown? That don’t make much sense to me, there gotta be something better to do somewhere on this card!! Inconsistency w wvu and all they only have played the 3 big12 home games, as mentioned they were competitive in the 2 losses, ot and they were in a 4 point game with tcu till the 4th (beat baylor), the unattractive part to me bout taking the dog is it just feels like a really high variance game. I don’t expect Sooners to run away from them but they probably could, they could also look like the team who can lose to anyone in the conf/, that the one they resemble more often. If ya gonna play it it gotta be wvu imo, even if a few their offensive outputs lately concern me they were both on the road. I actually think the 11am start is the best one for the home team, I think the wvu home field advantage is as much bout location/travel/time zone as it is crazy crowds., just another reason I wouldn’t touch Sooners.
 
bones said:
Here is Bet the Board. I will have a summary up by the end of the day

www.bettheboardpodcast.com

Landing Page - Bet The Board Podcast

This is an example of a WordPress page, you could edit this to put information so readers know where you are coming from. You can create as many pages like this one or sub-pages as you like and manage all of your content inside of WordPress. [...]Read More... from Landing Page
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UNC @ Wake: Highest total on board this weekend. Wake last played a ranked NC in 1997. A win by NC would give them a 9 win season for first time since 2015 when went 11-3. Tarheels seeking first conference championship since 1980. Most recent 2 meetings btw these two "defense has been optional" with a combined 225 points.
Brad Powers thinks total too high even though NC has been not good on D he thinks they have improved. Wake struggles with turnovers. Powers took Under 78.5 at the Open. "I was not surprised total was in the 70s I was stunned it was in the upper 70s." Wake averages 54 pts a game. Wake has struggled last 2 weeks with Ville and NCST and Hartman is 0-2 agst UNC is his career. Even with 2 ints last week, Hartman's "Pro Football Focus" grade last week was still quite favorable. Is this the week for Hartman to get his form back agst UNC defense? Insider says both Offenses in top 20 metrically and 2 Defenses out of the top 80 in defensive efficiency. Insider says 2 units will determine this game. First, Wake has had 11 turnovers in last 2 weeks, but Insider sees "positive regression on the way." He says turnovers generally caused by the Defense of the opponent and UNC "doesn't do that." Gave a stat - UNC does not "cause havoc" and Wake is some 50 spots higher with their D causing havoc. Essentially saying Ville and NCST have much better defenses than UNC. "Wake Offense is stepping down in class agst UNC defense." "UNC defense is outside top 120 in running success rate allowed." UNC defense 110th in the country in allowing points when opposing O reaches the UNC green zone." Wake's defense is bordering around top 50 in the same metric. Payne said "biggest thing for me here is the price. If Wake had played UNC 2 weeks ago before the 11 turnovers we would have made Wake an 8.5 favorite. UNC has not played a soul." The best team UNC played was ND and they trailed by 20 in 4th qtr. Insider says "Interesting buy low spot on Wake." Furman: "Drake May's draft status has fallen." Powers: "I have downgraded UNC about 1.5 pts" in my Power Rating over the season, not even in his top 40. "I agree with Payne and my Power Ratings agree with that. I am closer to the 5 to 5.5 with Demon Deacons."

Summary: Clearly they prefer Wake

Louisville @ Clemson: Clemson 7-0 all time in head to head. Last year's game came down to last possession. Clemson prior has beat Ville by combined 122 pts. prior 3 years. Clemson 5-2 all time ATS. Ville 4-0 ATS last 4 games and have held their opponents to 21 pts or less. Ville given up just 17 2H points in last 4 games. Powers has lowered his Power Rating; not stunned at last week's result but stunned at Clemson D effort and D line play, "they got run over off the bye." Clemson has major ?s at QB. He worried about frame of mind of the team and thinks Dabo has questionable O & D coordinators. Fuhrman suggest Clemson may have "time share at QB." Says last 2 of 3 games Clemson given up 200+ yds rushing. Insider: Ville O vs Clemson D "they are trending in complete opposite directions." He said Ville has had glimpse of Clemson O when they played Virginia that could help them in this game. Insider there are 3 things that may help Clemson O: (1) Ville has issues in their tranches and has been "horrific on allowing 1st downs on early downs." (2) Ville is going to have to blitz and DJ grades out in top 20 when facing the blitz (3) This is a step down in class for Clemson. Ville has played 1 top 35 O all season and even after last 2 weeks, Clemson is a Top 30 Offense. "Had this game been played last week they wud be -10 on a neutral and now they -7 @ home."

Summary: Questions re Clemson on both offense and defense, but they seemed to be unsure of Ville despite some positives.

UCF @ Tulane: Will go long way to determine in AAC pecking order. Tulane is perfect ATS except loss to USM early in year, but they dominated. First game since '73 where Tulane and opponent were both ranked. (Bluebonnet Bowl agst UH) and first Tulane home game where both teams ranked since 1949 agst LSU. Tulane leads counry ATS and UCF beaten Tulane last 4 but Tulane has covered last 5 of 6. Powers surprised at Tulane success, "but wondering if now we are paying a little bit of a premium to bet on Tulane." Powers likes Michael Keene compared to Plumlee for UCF. Fuhrman rattles off stats where Tulane is #1 on Defense in AAC. Insider "has no interest in betting this game....unless +3s pop." Both teams have run rate exceeding expectations and both teams in top 25 in that metric. Insider thinks UCF has the advantage in trench play on both sides of ball. Tulane rightfully wants to get Tyjae Spears the ball, UCF front is pretty good and Tulane O line allows a ton of negative plays. Insider is hearing Plumlee will be back but some whispers that both QBs may play. Fuhrman points out UCF D has difficult time generating QB pressure and concerns with health of UCF linebacker and D backs. Powers gives head coach advantage to Fritz over Malzahn.

Summary: See a tight game, but no interest expressed in betting UCF unless they get 3 pts.


Washington @ Oregon: Oregon has won 15 of last 17. Oregon 5-0 ATS in last 5, 7-1 in last 8, 4-0 @ home and cover margin has been close to 2 touchdowns. 2-0 @ home as double digit home favorite. Washington is 0-5 ATS last 5 after starting 4-0 ATS, 0-3 ATS on road and only one road win. Powers has upgraded Oregon by over a TD since GA game and bet over RWS preseason. Excluding GA game, Oregon a top 5 team. Oregon has been most consistent on O including Tenny and Buckeyes (all he has as top 3 Os). Oregon is not facing a top D this week and he thinks Oregon's O success will continue. Oregon won 5 straight games by 15+ points, done same in 7 of last 8, scored 40+ in 8 straight and has won 27 straight when scoring 40 plus points. Insider says "The Huskies are not getting stops here....One of the easier handicaps of the entire card and seems pretty straight forward....on paper one of the largest mismatches of the entire week...home Bo Nix even better." There was more they said but it all boiled down to their belief in Oregon. Insider's # was oregon -15.1. They were somewhat complimentary of Penix and if there is an Oregon weakness it is their secondary and Wash O line does give Penix a good protected pocket.

Summary: Oregon or bust.


TCU @ Texas: Powers thinks Texas has controlled even in 2 of 3 losses and has Texas as #6 in power ratings and has TCU has them #14. He fully understands the number and has Texas a "little higher." Powers essentially says the number is at least where it should be and Fuhrman seems to suggest that the "buyer beware" b/c number is not unsurprising to the pro bettors. He compares TCU to Tenny last week - public dog. Fuhrman also comments on obvious Texas 2H weakness. Insider says "there are indicators that no need to adjust lines due to public perception." TCU offense has "stepped up in class only 1 time this season, KState defense." Longhorn defense is going to be 2d best TCU has played...in top 25 and TCU has faced avg #87th (excluding KSt). Gary Patterson knows Max Duggan and Longhorn top 5 Defense in stopping the run. Texas has played some mobile QBs and he has game as Texas -5.5 on a neutral and when factoring in home game and some injury on TCU O he thinks line can "only go higher." Insider says TCU has been lucky in QBs they faced. 2d stringers and TCU is stepping up in class. TCU does not have the depth to beat Texas and if TCU has to play the run then Ewers will get explosive thru the air. TCU is outside top 80 in defensive line yards. Basically, saying Texas will be able to run and pass. Insider says "its ok if you don't want to fade TCU but caution in taking the 7."

Summary: Favor Texas, see last quote above.


Bama @ OleMiss: Both Bama losses with no time left in game or end of OT. Powers has kept OleMiss power rating same, up.5 pts. and has them #16. Rebels avg over 5 yds a carry. Powers thinks OleMiss does not have anyone to spy Young, but Young has shoulder injury and they wonder if they need to respect Young running (?). Insider thinks that Bama has RPO and that means Young has option to pass or hand off - not run himself. Powers is impressed with Will Anderson and Jordan Battle of Bama D. But, they not playing as well as last year..still think they good. Insider: "I am not running to back Ole Miss...areas where Bama most vulnerable is not where Ole Miss been great...Ole Miss been bullied in the trenches and Bama will have run and pass protection success...opportunities for Bama...thinks Bama defense will have D line success too." Powers is a Lane Kiffin guy, but just have not bought OleMiss this year." Insider hears Saban really likes Kiffin and will support Kiffin to take Bama job when he retires.

Summary: No direct call, but lean Bama

New Mexico vs Air Force: Powers thinks New Mexico +21.5 is a good wager and explains New Mexico has been bad luck team due to late last qtr losses this year. Powers says he bet AF RSW Over and still recommends New Mexico +21.5 and 1H +11.5 or more. Insider agrees based on pace of play and says if he "can confirm a few things, he will join Brad."


BET OF WEEK: Wake Forest. Insider says you can find a -3 (I cannot with my local) but still grades it a bet at -3.5
 
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bones said:
My initial bets this week are:

LSU -2.5 (larger than normal)
Oregon -13


I have been busy the past 2 days and have not gone back to see where lines are now. There is a possibility, as there is every week, that after more study I will take some wagers down, but I grabbed the lines I liked when I saw them.

One thought I had right off the bat was the TCU Texas line looked fishy and seemed like they were begging you to bet TCU. I still think it stinks and my gut is that is a bet I may well get off of...still have it for now

I posted my record in prior thread, but as I recall my initial bets went 0-3 2 weeks ago and 3-1 last week
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I am off N Carolina based on Bet the Board and have taken Wake -3.5.

I am also off TCU based on same podcast. But, when I went to take TCU bet off, I found that I had not actually bet them yet.
 
2daBank said:
I never noticed till @He Hate Me just mentioned wvu lost by 12 to ku, I knew that game went to ot, been thinking all year that was a 7 point game, how the hell that happen? Ku scored then wvu chance they got a fumble or pick6? Why the fuck wouldn’t they just fall down and the game be over? How ignorant! lol.

Anyways, I don’t have much faith in wvu anymore like I did early, the offense seems to have regressed or maybe it better d’s? That said I dunno why the hell anoyone would be looking to lay more than a td with Ou n Morgantown? That don’t make much sense to me, there gotta be something better to do somewhere on this card!! Inconsistency w wvu and all they only have played the 3 big12 home games, as mentioned they were competitive in the 2 losses, ot and they were in a 4 point game with tcu till the 4th (beat baylor), the unattractive part to me bout taking the dog is it just feels like a really high variance game. I don’t expect Sooners to run away from them but they probably could, they could also look like the team who can lose to anyone in the conf/, that the one they resemble more often. If ya gonna play it it gotta be wvu imo, even if a few their offensive outputs lately concern me they were both on the road. I actually think the 11am start is the best one for the home team, I think the wvu home field advantage is as much bout location/travel/time zone as it is crazy crowds., just another reason I wouldn’t touch Sooners.
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And in case you didn't see the end of the TCU/WV game it was pure, blind luck TCU covered. They weren't even trying to. They had fourth down at about the WV 35 with 15 seconds or so left. They didn't want to take a chance on kicking a FG--they didn't need it anyway--so decided to just have Duggan drop back, kill a little time, then throw it as high as he could toward the goal line and most of the time would expire.

Everything went according to plan except when it came down Johnson was there--with a d-back right next to him--and the ball dropped right into his hands for a TD

I lean W Virginia in this one because they've been so tough at home the last few years, but both teams are so unpredictable I'll probably pass.

Looked at Tulsa/Memphis and I'm always tempted by Memphis at home, but I saved money by coming off Memphis last week and I'm not going to try and handicap two teams with losing records, both of them inconsistent. Thinking about playing the over in a teaser though once the game comes on and I see whether the Tulsa QB is playing. I don't think he is, but I want to be sure
 
Weather Alert!!

The hurricane is moving up the coast and is going to impact some games, including the NFL game tonight

Memphis is hundreds of miles from the coast so I don't see it affecting that game
 
TahoeLegend said:
And in case you didn't see the end of the TCU/WV game it was pure, blind luck TCU covered. They weren't even trying to. They had fourth down at about the WV 35 with 15 seconds or so left. They didn't want to take a chance on kicking a FG--they didn't need it anyway--so decided to just have Duggan drop back, kill a little time, then throw it as high as he could toward the goal line and most of the time would expire.

Everything went according to plan except when it came down Johnson was there--with a d-back right next to him--and the ball dropped right into his hands for a TD

I lean W Virginia in this one because they've been so tough at home the last few years, but both teams are so unpredictable I'll probably pass.

Looked at Tulsa/Memphis and I'm always tempted by Memphis at home, but I saved money by coming off Memphis last week and I'm not going to try and handicap two teams with losing records, both of them inconsistent. Thinking about playing the over in a teaser though once the game comes on and I see whether the Tulsa QB is playing. I don't think he is, but I want to be sure
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The downside to betting on WVU is that weird/dumb things tend to happen.
 
TahoeLegend said:
And in case you didn't see the end of the TCU/WV game it was pure, blind luck TCU covered. They weren't even trying to. They had fourth down at about the WV 35 with 15 seconds or so left. They didn't want to take a chance on kicking a FG--they didn't need it anyway--so decided to just have Duggan drop back, kill a little time, then throw it as high as he could toward the goal line and most of the time would expire.

Everything went according to plan except when it came down Johnson was there--with a d-back right next to him--and the ball dropped right into his hands for a TD

I lean W Virginia in this one because they've been so tough at home the last few years, but both teams are so unpredictable I'll probably pass.

Looked at Tulsa/Memphis and I'm always tempted by Memphis at home, but I saved money by coming off Memphis last week and I'm not going to try and handicap two teams with losing records, both of them inconsistent. Thinking about playing the over in a teaser though once the game comes on and I see whether the Tulsa QB is playing. I don't think he is, but I want to be sure
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Holy shit, that as bad as losing by more than a td in ot! Sone awful bad beats shit they got going on, think I’ll look other places!
 
He Hate Me said:
What do you think about this @2daBank ?
I knew it would be over 300, but was hoping for 305 or 310, under 325 should be good.
The weather looks good, kinda cool but good otherwise.
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315-320 bout what I had wrote down, I’m worried bout him turning it over in this game but that prob won’t have much effect on his total yards. He turned it over several times at ucla and ended up posting a big number in 2nd half while never really in the game, could def happen here. Only thing I really been looking at as a possible play in this game right now would be ducks team total over maybe, I’m assuming it around 42-43? I dunno if huskies can get a stop? I havnt looked at props or anything for any games yet so maybe I’ll see something else.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Best week of the year for the handicappers, with Greg McElroy and Adam Kramer leading the pack. These guys are doing a good job this year. Hard to find any group of handicappers where nine of eleven are in the black this late in the year. The only two in the red are two of the Daily Wager pickers

Steve and Bear picks so far. These are from Daily Wager, not their podcast, although Steve's have been the same both places all year

ESPN Pickers:
Stanford Steve— (0-0) (23-18) 2020-21 Total (71-56) Best Bet (6-4)
Fresno St -9x
Baylor -2x
Army/Troy u 46

Scott Van Pelt—(0-0) (44-39) 2020-21 Total (99-77)

The Bear—(0-0) (31-18) 2020-21 Total (61-65) Bank Picks—(2-1) (13-14)
Texas Tech -3x
Louisville +7
Wake Forest +3x
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Wake laying.
 
2daBank said:
315-320 bout what I had wrote down, I’m worried bout him turning it over in this game but that prob won’t have much effect on his total yards. He turned it over several times at ucla and ended up posting a big number in 2nd half while never really in the game, could def happen here. Only thing I really been looking at as a possible play in this game right now would be ducks team total over maybe, I’m assuming it around 42-43? I dunno if huskies can get a stop? I havnt looked at props or anything for any games yet so maybe I’ll see something else.
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Yeah, I bet Penix at 315.5. I see it is up to 319.5 this morning.

Others worth looking at pending the number:

Tune (Houston) total passing yards (if there is a prop available)
Mordecai (SMU) total passing yards (if there is a prop available)
Dekkers (ISU) total passing yards
Ashford (Aub) total rushing yards
Achane (A&M) total rushing yards
Charbonnet (UCLA) total rushing yards (if completely healthy)
 
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He Hate Me said:
Yeah, I bet Penix at 315.5. I see it is up to 319.5 this morning.

Others worth looking at pending the number:

Tune (Houston) total passing yards (if there is a prop available)
Mordecai (SMU) total passing yards (if there is a prop available)
Dekkers (ISU) total passing yards
Ashford (Aub) total rushing yards
Achane (A&M) total rushing yards
Charbonnet (UCLA) total rushing yards (if completely healthy)
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I’m really behind this week (what else new? Always something these days; lol), I have some numbers jotted down on guys just have to see where they come w their number, achane has been really good to me this year, you can pretty much bank on jimbo rb getting his Carries no matter what! I havnt actually looked at that game yet and I’d worry they might start coming higher w achane as they have started creeping him up in recent weeks but he still been smashing the fairly light numbers they were hanging on him, think last week was 1st time he was close or above 100! He was living in 60s for lot of games! Honestly I might have more cashes w him than anyone, only Loss I recall taking on him
Was had him for a rush td one week and he caught one instead, I hate how it not just score td like nfl!

I could see being interested in Cunningham rush yards but you always gotta worry bout him getting hurt and leaving game, he usually comes back but never know, he takes a lot of big shots and refs seem to officiate him differently even when he still a passer behind Los: He banged up now but pretty sure it just his non throwing hand so shouldn’t slow him down, clemson has struggled with running qbs with way less talent than him! I suspect his number be reasonable cause tigers d gets the respect, hoping anyways.
 
It’s a shame ville doesn’t really have a back you can count on getting the touches cause I know he would prob be undervalued. Problem is never know which guy gonna be the 1 on ville; others will surely take a few, and of course Cunningham gonna get his share the rush yards. I do think ville will have more success running on clemson than ppl might think and not just with the qb.
 
And in case you didn't see the end of the TCU/WV game it was pure, blind luck TCU covered. They weren't even trying to. They had fourth down at about the WV 35 with 15 seconds or so left. They didn't want to take a chance on kicking a FG--they didn't need it anyway--so decided to just have Duggan drop back, kill a little time, then throw it as high as he could toward the goal line and most of the time would expire.

Everything went according to plan except when it came down Johnson was there--with a d-back right next to him--and the ball dropped right into his hands for a TD
Click to expand...

Pretty sure WVU jumped offside which gave TCU and Duggan a free play and he threw it deep. I don't think that was the plan before the WV offside.

I lost the WVU+4.5 1H against TCU in similar fashion. WVU allowed a 30-40y TD run with about :30 left when TCU may've been positioning for FG range. So it was a 7pt game at HT instead of potentially 3.

In a game I could've went 3-0 ATS (1H, game, 2H), I instead went 0-3 due to the way the end of the 1H and 2H ended.
 
2daBank said:
It’s a shame ville doesn’t really have a back you can count on getting the touches cause I know he would prob be undervalued. Problem is never know which guy gonna be the 1 on ville; others will surely take a few, and of course Cunningham gonna get his share the rush yards. I do think ville will have more success running on clemson than ppl might think and not just with the qb.
Click to expand...
As someone that lives in the Ville and casually follows them I am not a believer that they can beat even a down Clemson. They very well could cover but I don't trust a Satterfield team to play a good 4th quarter on the road.

I know this isn't the same team that lost to BC on the road, they are playing much better now. That team could rear it's ugly head at a moments notice though.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Some good ACC games this week, 2daBank. Any thoughts on Louisville/Clemson?
Click to expand...

I’ve wrote a bunch havnt I :) the bet the board guys made me question my tigers team total under thoughts a tad when they brought up some good points about how often ville been blitzing and what I didn’t know was how good DJ metrics against the blitz has been this year. So I looked some more, thought it over and while I think it a relevant point I would counter with who these teams been blitzing him where his Adot and other metrics look so good? Cuse the only one I see who I know a heavy blitz team like ville and he did not play well vs them! I gotta think his confidence is totally shook at this point and the last month when ville been blitzing at a crazy high rate they been doing it with great success, it not like they blitzing and not getting home, they are creating Havic, I just don’t think DJ gonna be great against that. Tigers run game was able to gash cuse who run blitzes as much a ville I’d guess but ville doesn’t play that 3-3-5 as much as cuse which I think more vulnerable to run games, I don’t think cuse has the game wreckers ville does either. Im
still incredibly confident in saying I do not believe clemson can score what their team total gonna be (im assuming 29/30 based off line/total), im not sure they can score much more than 20 and I’d say 24-27 be like best case scenario for tigers offense. Obviously if ville can hold them to 20 or less the +7 should be money, you gotta assume Cunningham and co can score at least 14-17 imo: I think it a safe bet ville does get close to their team total (assuming 22ish) which if they get there im confident they cover. For me im looking at 3 bets, tigers team total under, game under 52, and ville +7.
 
Two Utes said:
As someone that lives in the Ville and casually follows them I am not a believer that they can beat even a down Clemson. They very well could cover but I don't trust a Satterfield team to play a good 4th quarter on the road.

I know this isn't the same team that lost to BC on the road, they are playing much better now. That team could rear it's ugly head at a moments notice though.
Click to expand...

Understand, Nobody used to knock ville/satterfiekd for their 2nd halves/4th qrtr more than myself, cost me several games last year before I benefited from it early this year. I gotta say tho, the last month as the defense has come on they have gotten much better late, they have actually won the 2md half in the last 4 since the bc game: I dunno satterfiekd has gotten any better, probably not, the difference is the defense has been Fuckin fantastic in the 2nd half! They have only allowed 17 points total in the 2nd the last month! My renewed respect for ville is all about that defense.

I dunno if they win this game, I think they capable, that d could cause either those tigers qbs w shaken confidence a ton of problems! The thing I’m most confident in is I believe ville can and will hold tigers under their total and most likely keep them in mid to low 20s at most, imo that makes 7 really valuable and would it be shocking if Cunningham was able to engineer 3 td drives? Could be clemson d comes out with a bigger sense of urgency/pride and toughens up against the run but lately teams been gashing them, I could see it going either way, they respond off the loss or it Carries over and they drop a 2nd. Either way I believe it be on the defense, im more confident in tigers team total under/gm under than ville, I just don’t see a avenue without screwy special teams or defensive scores for Clem to score more than 28 on this d. They could hold ville to 13-17, that wouldn’t shock me.
 
Another thing I think will benefit ville, the more aggressive d’s that have gotten into the backfield have forced quite a few clemson turnovers. The biggest difference in ville the last month is that d is often behind the los making plays. I think they absolutely create a turnover or 2.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Posted Adam Kramer picks. This guy just keeps picking winners and is 58-36 for the year
Texas -7
Arkansas +3
Wake Forest -3x
Oregon St -14
Baylor -3
Cincinnati -5x
UCLA/Arizona o 78
UConn +14x
Click to expand...

I love the texas, wake plays, it be ucon or nothing for me in that one: obviously hate Arkansas and lessor extent cincy.

I expected to be against lot of cappers with lsu, I knew between that line stinking to high heaven and the possibility of a lsu letdown it was bound to happen, honestly I wouldn’t like lsu as much it I didn’t see the faction I expected playing ark, I rather be against them than the books amd we all agree! Lol. I just don’t think lsu gonna let down, I loved what brian Kelly said in his presser this week, they there to win sec and national championships, not celebrate beating bama! I think that message will resonate and quite frankly we getting a huge discount on lsu because of the letdown aspect. Imo lsu-10 on a neutral, I’ll stick w playing the number over guessing on the emotional angle, I could be wrong but I think it worth the risk they are locked in cause if so they are simply a much better team. I was actually happy to hear Bear have similar thoughts and not playing arky cause he been smoking this year also, his picks on the board been god awful which funny, I feel his pain, trying to pick my best 3 id prob struggle also even if overall the record really good which he has been.
 
2daBank said:
I’ve wrote a bunch havnt I :) the bet the board guys made me question my tigers team total under thoughts a tad when they brought up some good points about how often ville been blitzing and what I didn’t know was how good DJ metrics against the blitz has been this year. So I looked some more, thought it over and while I think it a relevant point I would counter with who these teams been blitzing him where his Adot and other metrics look so good? Cuse the only one I see who I know a heavy blitz team like ville and he did not play well vs them! I gotta think his confidence is totally shook at this point and the last month when ville been blitzing at a crazy high rate they been doing it with great success, it not like they blitzing and not getting home, they are creating Havic, I just don’t think DJ gonna be great against that. Tigers run game was able to gash cuse who run blitzes as much a ville I’d guess but ville doesn’t play that 3-3-5 as much as cuse which I think more vulnerable to run games, I don’t think cuse has the game wreckers ville does either. Im
still incredibly confident in saying I do not believe clemson can score what their team total gonna be (im assuming 29/30 based off line/total), im not sure they can score much more than 20 and I’d say 24-27 be like best case scenario for tigers offense. Obviously if ville can hold them to 20 or less the +7 should be money, you gotta assume Cunningham and co can score at least 14-17 imo: I think it a safe bet ville does get close to their team total (assuming 22ish) which if they get there im confident they cover. For me im looking at 3 bets, tigers team total under, game under 52, and ville +7.
Click to expand...
Pretty crazy that DJ performs well against the blitz. To my eye I would assume he does not because he does not seem to be decisive between throwing, running, usually leading to a bad throw, rushed throw, or sack. I would think that he would be even less decisive with another QB looking over his shoulder. I think I may wait out a potential Ville bet and look at other ways to maybe bet this.
 
2daBank said:
I love the texas, wake plays, it be ucon or nothing for me in that one: obviously hate Arkansas and lessor extent cincy.

I expected to be against lot of cappers with lsu, I knew between that line stinking to high heaven and the possibility of a lsu letdown it was bound to happen, honestly I wouldn’t like lsu as much it I didn’t see the faction I expected playing ark, I rather be against them than the books amd we all agree! Lol. I just don’t think lsu gonna let down, I loved what brian Kelly said in his presser this week, they there to win sec and national championships, not celebrate beating bama! I think that message will resonate and quite frankly we getting a huge discount on lsu because of the letdown aspect. Imo lsu-10 on a neutral, I’ll stick w playing the number over guessing on the emotional angle, I could be wrong but I think it worth the risk they are locked in cause if so they are simply a much better team. I was actually happy to hear Bear have similar thoughts and not playing arky cause he been smoking this year also, his picks on the board been god awful which funny, I feel his pain, trying to pick my best 3 id prob struggle also even if overall the record really good which he has been.
Click to expand...
I was going to ask you about Wake and N Carolina. I don't have a clear picture of either one of those teams, but was leaning to Wake just based on the fact N Carolina has had a horrible defense for the last two or three years. I was thinking of over on that one as well. Any thoughts on the total?
 
TahoeLegend said:
I was going to ask you about Wake and N Carolina. I don't have a clear picture of either one of those teams, but was leaning to Wake just based on the fact N Carolina has had a horrible defense for the last two or three years. I was thinking of over on that one as well. Any thoughts on the total?
Click to expand...

I certainly don’t have the stomach to even think bout the under, i know this just the way it is but playing over freaking 78.5 is just too damn much for me. Any kind of 4-5 min drive that ends in no points, or a couple fgs and you in trouble. Then again I’ve seen some these where they get off to a horrible start w next to nothing in the 1st qrtr then they still fly over. Freaking 42-35 would be under! I dunno, im not ready to play over that kind of number but maybe it coming sooner than later.

Far as game I just feel like wake d is actually serviceable especially compared to unc, they been able to hold teams to reasonable avg amount of points when they get inside 40, when wake gets into scoring territory they gonna have no problem putting up tds. I just think there some pretty good value w wake thanks to them struggling vs some very good defenses, that why they have turned it over cause they been facing some the better acc d’s that been attacking the slow mesh point, that irrelevant here cause unc creates no havoc, Hartman will be totally comfy holding the mesh and making his read. Records and ranks be damned, wake is the better team and I’d say they are -3.5 better on a neutral so only laying that at home absurd to me. Heels have somehow managed to avoid having to face every good acc d outside of pitt and even tho I like pitt d the one place they vulnerable in the secondary and we saw that as maye threw for damn near 400, pitt had no way to match that as they get more and more conservative/away from
What they were under Pickett and Slovis continues to get worse as the season goes. Hartman will have no problem matching heels score for score and think it way more likely wake d is able to force a few punts or fgs at least. Good for unc being 8-1 but it the softest 8-1 in the country imo, they have played 1-2 decent teams and lost to one of them. After last year I’ll never buy into mack brown teams again, think they totally fugazi and it will show this week. He hit the lottery with Maye it seems and they will prob never have a great team even with what looks like a sure fire nfl qb! Unless you count this team who has beaten nobody as a good team?
 
2daBank said:
I certainly don’t have the stomach to even think bout the under, i know this just the way it is but playing over freaking 78.5 is just too damn much for me. Any kind of 4-5 min drive that ends in no points, or a couple fgs and you in trouble. Then again I’ve seen some these where they get off to a horrible start w next to nothing in the 1st qrtr then they still fly over. Freaking 42-35 would be under! I dunno, im not ready to play over that kind of number but maybe it coming sooner than later.

Far as game I just feel like wake d is actually serviceable especially compared to unc, they been able to hold teams to reasonable avg amount of points when they get inside 40, when wake gets into scoring territory they gonna have no problem putting up tds. I just think there some pretty good value w wake thanks to them struggling vs some very good defenses, that why they have turned it over cause they been facing some the better acc d’s that been attacking the slow mesh point, that irrelevant here cause unc creates no havoc, Hartman will be totally comfy holding the mesh and making his read. Records and ranks be damned, wake is the better team and I’d say they are -3.5 better on a neutral so only laying that at home absurd to me. Heels have somehow managed to avoid having to face every good acc d outside of pitt and even tho I like pitt d the one place they vulnerable in the secondary and we saw that as maye threw for damn near 400, pitt had no way to match that as they get more and more conservative/away from
What they were under Pickett and Slovis continues to get worse as the season goes. Hartman will have no problem matching heels score for score and think it way more likely wake d is able to force a few punts or fgs at least. Good for unc being 8-1 but it the softest 8-1 in the country imo, they have played 1-2 decent teams and lost to one of them. After last year I’ll never buy into mack brown teams again, think they totally fugazi and it will show this week. He hit the lottery with Maye it seems and they will prob never have a great team even with what looks like a sure fire nfl qb! Unless you count this team who has beaten nobody as a good team?
Click to expand...
Agree on the total. These teams can score, but 78x is too much for me. Just one long drive that ends up in a FG can put the win in doubt and a missed FG or turnover can kill you. I'm surprised Kramer took the over in UCLA/Arizona for the same reasons.

I'm leaning Wake in this one and I like having my money on Hartman, but I missed the 3 and the 3x and that line is now up to -4. I'm still pondering that one

You mentioned earlier you loved E Carolina tonight and I like them too. You still as strong on them as you were?
 
as expected my texas 1st half idea was far from original, I’ve heard lot of smart ppl saying the exact same thing, not surprising to me, it about the most obvious play in the history of obvious plays! Texas jumps out on everyone and often blows the game, tcu gets behind in lot of games and tends to come back. Even last week when I cashed texas full game I was pretty much kicking myself the entire 2nd half for not just playing 1st half as they tried their best to let k-st steal that game! Last I heard the texas 1st half has jumped to -6 even with the game remaining -7, you don’t ever see that!! Maybe that has happened some in kc chiefs games, not to that extent but they certainly been known to shade their 1st halves. Even tho I shoulda grabbed some texas -3.5 1st half when I bet lsu -3 earlier in week im still leaning to laying -6 1st half. This a game if they don’t cash 1st half then I’d gladly come back and get a better number playing them again In 2nd. I just don’t think it even questionable that texas is the better team. I heard some espn retard talking bout “will tcu get upset”, I can’t believe there still morons that say a 7 point dog could be upset! Lol
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Agree on the total. These teams can score, but 78x is too much for me. Just one long drive that ends up in a FG can put the win in doubt and a missed FG or turnover can kill you. I'm surprised Kramer took the over in UCLA/Arizona for the same reasons.

I'm leaning Wake in this one and I like having my money on Hartman, but I missed the 3 and the 3x and that line is now up to -4. I'm still pondering that one

You mentioned earlier you loved E Carolina tonight and I like them too. You still as strong on them as you were?
Click to expand...

-4 don’t worry me, I think wake wins by at least a td.

I still like them, maybe I don’t love ecu quite as much, I’ve heard enough reasonable points that most their better games/upsets come at home: line keeps creeping down so annoyed I shoulda got earlier but i will have a regular play on them +4.5, I just believe they match up really well with these guys for a change, I think they win but perfectly happy taking the points cause I def don’t see cincy blowing them out, should be close.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Cowherd
Seahawks +2.5
Broncos +3
Bears -2.5
Steelers +2
Jaguars +9
Click to expand...

Seems crazy to me seattle dogs. Love the way bears been playing. Those the 2 of his I like most.

Not sure bout others, titsns d was on the field a ton Sunday night, shame this isn’t at Denver in altitude, I’d love Denver then. There talks donks gonna go more uptempo, I think that would be a good idea for Russ and the offense anyways, maybe even better facing a d that had to defend 90 plays against kc last week! So I can understand that one, just tough to get behind that shitbag coached team against a really well coached team: does a bye matter when the coach a retard? I guess for rest purposes but not like extra prep time gonna help them!
 
2daBank said:
as expected my texas 1st half idea was far from original, I’ve heard lot of smart ppl saying the exact same thing, not surprising to me, it about the most obvious play in the history of obvious plays! Texas jumps out on everyone and often blows the game, tcu gets behind in lot of games and tends to come back. Even last week when I cashed texas full game I was pretty much kicking myself the entire 2nd half for not just playing 1st half as they tried their best to let k-st steal that game! Last I heard the texas 1st half has jumped to -6 even with the game remaining -7, you don’t ever see that!! Maybe that has happened some in kc chiefs games, not to that extent but they certainly been known to shade their 1st halves. Even tho I shoulda grabbed some texas -3.5 1st half when I bet lsu -3 earlier in week im still leaning to laying -6 1st half. This a game if they don’t cash 1st half then I’d gladly come back and get a better number playing them again In 2nd
Click to expand...
You had it right last week on Texas. I expected them to get physically beaten by Kansas State and it didn't happen. I thought Kansas State would score on their last drive once they got it down to one score, but even if they had I was still wrong in my estimate of Texas.

I like Texas at home better and I respect the fact you had them evaluated perfectly last week, but was still leaning to TCU until I kept hearing Johnson is unlikely to play for TCU.

So far I only have
Baylor -2x
LSU -3
LSU ML (-150)
Tulane -1
Lean Louisville, Oregon, Iowa ( I always lean Iowa at home), Wake, Florida). Was going to play Tulane ML as well, but for some reason the ML is jacked up. It's usually -115 for a one or two point game, but it's been -130 and -125 all week.

I may just stick with that lineup and play the others in teasers
 
Will be interesting for Wake to see their secondary and pass D. That was their #1 issue vs Clemson and you can see who they've played since then, not very strong QBs related passing offense. WF was down DBs back then, which I would assume has improved since then.
 
TahoeLegend said:
You had it right last week on Texas. I expected them to get physically beaten by Kansas State and it didn't happen. I thought Kansas State would score on their last drive once they got it down to one score, but even if they had I was still wrong in my estimate of Texas.

I like Texas at home better and I respect the fact you had them evaluated perfectly last week, but was still leaning to TCU until I kept hearing Johnson is unlikely to play for TCU.

So far I only have
Baylor -2x
LSU -3
LSU ML (-150)
Tulane -1
Lean Louisville, Oregon, Iowa ( I always lean Iowa at home), Wake, Florida). Was going to play Tulane ML as well, but for some reason the ML is jacked up. It's usually -115 for a one or two point game, but it's been -130 and -125 all week.

I may just stick with that lineup and play the others in teasers
Click to expand...

I was still scared to death the entire 2nd half as texas did their best to piss away another big lead. I didn’t understand the conservative bs the last few drives at all, why would they just run and punt? They were rrslly good on
3rd downs, maybe pick one or 2 of those up and win the damn game by taking knees, not counting on d to make a stop!! Just awful coaching imo. It my only concern here, texas Is more talented than tcu, I don’t think it even a question. I love that Patterson on texas staff, Duggan has major weaknesses as a passer and nobody should know the best way to defend him more than Patterson you would think. I think texas gonna be able to run all over them and it will open up the explosive passing shots Ewers loves to hunt: I was on the tcu bandwagon early on but it impossible for me not to be honest about their last 3-4 wins vs ranked teams, not one of them had their starting qb from start to finish and horns had to come back on tjrm all. I just don’t think they anywhere close to the 4th best team in the country, fun team, I like rooting for them and dykes but I think the run stops here: also want to say Dykes smu teams often got off to these blistering starts then faded bad down the stretch, I could absolutely see them losing 2 of last 3, if not all of them.
 
anyone seen any updates on whether Shrader gonna play for cuse? I havnt been able to find anything since early in week when Babers was being super vague. Without him fsu prob rolls, their run game gonna be a problem and think Travis has turned into a good enough qb he won’t be confused and will be able to pick them apart when they run blitzing. If Schrader was healthy could be a much closer game, think
They need him tho.
 
Another week I like more favs than dogs. Pretty sure I actually been pretty good the weeks this has happened, I just like the weeks where I have more dogs.
 
2daBank said:
anyone seen any updates on whether Shrader gonna play for cuse? I havnt been able to find anything since early in week when Babers was being super vague. Without him fsu prob rolls, their run game gonna be a problem and think Travis has turned into a good enough qb he won’t be confused and will be able to pick them apart when they run blitzing. If Schrader was healthy could be a much closer game, think
They need him tho.
Click to expand...
Still listed as questionable
 
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