Enjoy the exchange of ideas and debate here - always welcome differing viewpoints
Preseason views/futures
National Title - ohio state +400, oklahoma +4000
heisman - smith nixba +2500, gabriel +3000, jahmyr gibbs +5000, jt daniels +7000, casey thompson +10,000 , cam ward +10,000, plumlee ucf no odds
playoffs - i think ohio state and bama make it, next in line for me on potential would be oklahoma....after that who knows...would say another sec team or usc, clemson/wake.
Theme is looking for wildcards - year over year progression/regression on coaching changes, transfers, etc.....all those heisman guys fall into that and buckeyes do with knowles. They buckeyes offense has highest ceiling of any contender, 2020 bama, 2019 lsu prolific ability potential. To me smith nixba is special, devonte smith type impact.
ACC
acc championship - wake +3853,
atlantic division.....clemson -220, lville +2500, wake?
FSU u 6.5
BC o 6
wake o
louisville o 6
duke o 3
syracuse o 4.5
Hopefully hartman gets back and soon but if he comes back sooner then expected +3853 is lotta value. I'm high on wake this year because Brad Lambert. Dude did wonders at marshall and purdue. Improving that d is major upside. Clemson is the team to beat but there is major ?s on offense and isn't a pipe dream for them to not win the conference. ....the coastal may be weakest power 5 division in football this year. virginia and virginia tech look down. I don't expect va tech to have any playmakers or virginia oline to be any good. I am buying stock in Brent Prye long term though. Also buying stock in Elko. very easy schedule for them. Not buying stock in Norvell, I can't see this team winning 7 games when they had everything in front of them against florida last year and didn't win........Boston college and lville - these coaches are perennial bowl type coaches, they are going to get the 6 or more wins.... Wildcard is Cuse due to the OC from virginia. He doesn't need a pure passer with his creativity, and that offense has some potential. I lean to the NC State is overrated camp, they are going to be in alot of close games. I don't think lville is going to win the atlantic division but their odds are +2500 and nc states is +500 ? Theres not that much difference in those teams
Big 12
champion - oklahoma +200 i think is best team, odds wise baylor +500 west virginia +2500
oklahoma o 9.5
west virginia o 5.5
baylor o 7.5
oklahoma state u 8
tcu u 6.5
Texas u 8.5
i'm buying stock in brent venables at oklahoma and addition of the Lebby and gabriel is a major wildcard and this team's ceiling is super high they can make the playoffs. Baylor is not a flash in the pan imo Aranda is the real deal and I think with regression can still get to 8 wins. Why is west virginia not expected to win as many games as they did last year after adding JT Daniels ? I've never seen georgia's offense look as good as it did at the end of 2020 with JT…Neal brown has gone from respected perennial bowl coach to no good ? Oklahoma state loses a lot. TCU had one of the worst defenses last year and is gonna win 7 games now ? I think that's gonna be tough. Texas could very well win 9 games but I'm going with it's more likely they don't. Sark hasn't proven himself yet as a good ball coach.
Pac 12
champion - washington state +4500
wash state o 5.5
ucla u 8.5
Cal o 5.5
Similar to west virginia we have a team with a new stud qb and a new coordinator similar to western kentucky last year .....that formula had good results, I'm seeing respected people on the under on both these teams not me. I'm buying all kinds of stock in Jake Dickert. I believe me and suk were on this team last year as they started to emerge. Last year wazzou had all kinds of turmoil and went to a bowl and now they can't ? I think this qb Ward and team can be a wildcard. Cal is an annual bowl team I think their d can be better this year with Johnson back on d. UCLA draws usc, oregon, utah, washington and can't lose 3 games this year ? feel like chip always loses 1 he shouldn't too and i don't know who his wide receivers are. oregon id lean over i think lanning is a good fit there.
SEC
champion - bama -145
South carolina O 6
Tennessee U 7.5
Florida O 7
I'm buying stock in another qb transfer and young head coach - shane beamer and spencer rattler. Beamer won 6 games last year with no skill position players. I'm buying stock in billy napier long term I think he's not a flashy coach but a fundamental winning coach. I'm not buying stock in tennessee vols head coach , and I do think some of those teams last year that came out in prevent defenses against that offense are going to be able to adjust a little bit. Wanna buy into missouri because they feel like an annual bowl team and should be better than last years bowl team.
BIG TEN
nebraska +1800
illinois o 4.5
nebraska o 7.5
minnesota o 7.5
indiana u 4
think huskers are the wildcard here , could get beat by nw like they always do in opening games or win 10 games. Were right there with michigan, well if huskers get an oline they can be michigan from last year....complete overhaul from frost on offensive staff.....i know he failed at arkansas but i'm buying stock in beliema in the big ten.....kirk c should help minnesota but they are losing alot on the lines.....purdue and sparty should regress some and could lose to a team like a maryland who could steal an extra win in i'm not a maryland guy but they should make a bowl. only gimme for indiana is idaho
MWC
Champion - San Jose State +2500
San Jose State O 6.5
Nevada U 5
Hawaii U 4.5
san jose state should have some wide receivers this year brennan showed really good coaching last year to stay in games. Should be alot of over teams with hawaii and nevada being so bad but not seeing enough value.
SUN BELT
champion - georgia southern +8000, south bama +1800
georgia southern o 4.5
coastal u 7.5
south bama o 5.5
I'm buying stock in clay helton fitting nicely into mid major like his brother, i'm buying stock in their oc from wku and their dc from washington who has chops. I'm buying stock in the qb vantrease. how good they are is yet to know transitioning from option but I think they can get to 5 and a wildcard. both coastal and louisiana lose alot. south bama seems to be making moves and i like that.
MAC
champion - bowling green 2500, niu 500, kent 900,
bowling green o 4.5
Kent state o 5
central michigan u 7.5
ohio o 6
if you go watch bowling greens media day it's easily the most upbeat a coach has been from any preseason interviews i've seen on teams. They have a center who started at cincinnati, some skill transfers, and the coach basically said if we took transfers a year early we could of won like 7 games last year. He thinks their run defense is finally for real. Kent state always has a horrible defense and they got a new dc this year. Ohio stole miami oh's dc. These could be some huge impacts. ...not so sure i'm sold on central who lost their oc, their ol coach, top wide receivers.
CUSA
champion - only team with decent odds fau +800
utsa o 8.5
fau o 5.5
utep o 5.5
i think utsa matches up well with some of their hard non con - army, houston. fau always liked their qb from miami fl, feels like they have more talent than some teams.
AAC
champion - cincy +190 ucf +325
ucf o 8.5
cincy o 9
i think ucf wins this conference this year with the ole miss transfer at qb who looks like he runs a 4.3.....dude is going to make some great plays. Tulane should be improved this year. Not sure i'm buying into what jeff scott is selling in tampa, i think that u 4.5 is live. they have a good oline but idn about their d.
Independents
Notre Dame U 8.5 - i'm not buying stock in marcus freeman and the projected qb starter buckner didn't look like he could throw vs va tech last year, if they didn't bring mediocre coan back in they lose that game. some of these mediocre teams they face like unc, boston college, cuse etc can upset them
liberty o 6.5 - most mystifying line i'm seeing out there - guessing its all cause of malik willis....freeze replenished with transfers and there is 6 gimmes on the schedule
Preseason views/futures
National Title - ohio state +400, oklahoma +4000
heisman - smith nixba +2500, gabriel +3000, jahmyr gibbs +5000, jt daniels +7000, casey thompson +10,000 , cam ward +10,000, plumlee ucf no odds
playoffs - i think ohio state and bama make it, next in line for me on potential would be oklahoma....after that who knows...would say another sec team or usc, clemson/wake.
Theme is looking for wildcards - year over year progression/regression on coaching changes, transfers, etc.....all those heisman guys fall into that and buckeyes do with knowles. They buckeyes offense has highest ceiling of any contender, 2020 bama, 2019 lsu prolific ability potential. To me smith nixba is special, devonte smith type impact.
ACC
acc championship - wake +3853,
atlantic division.....clemson -220, lville +2500, wake?
FSU u 6.5
BC o 6
wake o
louisville o 6
duke o 3
syracuse o 4.5
Hopefully hartman gets back and soon but if he comes back sooner then expected +3853 is lotta value. I'm high on wake this year because Brad Lambert. Dude did wonders at marshall and purdue. Improving that d is major upside. Clemson is the team to beat but there is major ?s on offense and isn't a pipe dream for them to not win the conference. ....the coastal may be weakest power 5 division in football this year. virginia and virginia tech look down. I don't expect va tech to have any playmakers or virginia oline to be any good. I am buying stock in Brent Prye long term though. Also buying stock in Elko. very easy schedule for them. Not buying stock in Norvell, I can't see this team winning 7 games when they had everything in front of them against florida last year and didn't win........Boston college and lville - these coaches are perennial bowl type coaches, they are going to get the 6 or more wins.... Wildcard is Cuse due to the OC from virginia. He doesn't need a pure passer with his creativity, and that offense has some potential. I lean to the NC State is overrated camp, they are going to be in alot of close games. I don't think lville is going to win the atlantic division but their odds are +2500 and nc states is +500 ? Theres not that much difference in those teams
Big 12
champion - oklahoma +200 i think is best team, odds wise baylor +500 west virginia +2500
oklahoma o 9.5
west virginia o 5.5
baylor o 7.5
oklahoma state u 8
tcu u 6.5
Texas u 8.5
i'm buying stock in brent venables at oklahoma and addition of the Lebby and gabriel is a major wildcard and this team's ceiling is super high they can make the playoffs. Baylor is not a flash in the pan imo Aranda is the real deal and I think with regression can still get to 8 wins. Why is west virginia not expected to win as many games as they did last year after adding JT Daniels ? I've never seen georgia's offense look as good as it did at the end of 2020 with JT…Neal brown has gone from respected perennial bowl coach to no good ? Oklahoma state loses a lot. TCU had one of the worst defenses last year and is gonna win 7 games now ? I think that's gonna be tough. Texas could very well win 9 games but I'm going with it's more likely they don't. Sark hasn't proven himself yet as a good ball coach.
Pac 12
champion - washington state +4500
wash state o 5.5
ucla u 8.5
Cal o 5.5
Similar to west virginia we have a team with a new stud qb and a new coordinator similar to western kentucky last year .....that formula had good results, I'm seeing respected people on the under on both these teams not me. I'm buying all kinds of stock in Jake Dickert. I believe me and suk were on this team last year as they started to emerge. Last year wazzou had all kinds of turmoil and went to a bowl and now they can't ? I think this qb Ward and team can be a wildcard. Cal is an annual bowl team I think their d can be better this year with Johnson back on d. UCLA draws usc, oregon, utah, washington and can't lose 3 games this year ? feel like chip always loses 1 he shouldn't too and i don't know who his wide receivers are. oregon id lean over i think lanning is a good fit there.
SEC
champion - bama -145
South carolina O 6
Tennessee U 7.5
Florida O 7
I'm buying stock in another qb transfer and young head coach - shane beamer and spencer rattler. Beamer won 6 games last year with no skill position players. I'm buying stock in billy napier long term I think he's not a flashy coach but a fundamental winning coach. I'm not buying stock in tennessee vols head coach , and I do think some of those teams last year that came out in prevent defenses against that offense are going to be able to adjust a little bit. Wanna buy into missouri because they feel like an annual bowl team and should be better than last years bowl team.
BIG TEN
nebraska +1800
illinois o 4.5
nebraska o 7.5
minnesota o 7.5
indiana u 4
think huskers are the wildcard here , could get beat by nw like they always do in opening games or win 10 games. Were right there with michigan, well if huskers get an oline they can be michigan from last year....complete overhaul from frost on offensive staff.....i know he failed at arkansas but i'm buying stock in beliema in the big ten.....kirk c should help minnesota but they are losing alot on the lines.....purdue and sparty should regress some and could lose to a team like a maryland who could steal an extra win in i'm not a maryland guy but they should make a bowl. only gimme for indiana is idaho
MWC
Champion - San Jose State +2500
San Jose State O 6.5
Nevada U 5
Hawaii U 4.5
san jose state should have some wide receivers this year brennan showed really good coaching last year to stay in games. Should be alot of over teams with hawaii and nevada being so bad but not seeing enough value.
SUN BELT
champion - georgia southern +8000, south bama +1800
georgia southern o 4.5
coastal u 7.5
south bama o 5.5
I'm buying stock in clay helton fitting nicely into mid major like his brother, i'm buying stock in their oc from wku and their dc from washington who has chops. I'm buying stock in the qb vantrease. how good they are is yet to know transitioning from option but I think they can get to 5 and a wildcard. both coastal and louisiana lose alot. south bama seems to be making moves and i like that.
MAC
champion - bowling green 2500, niu 500, kent 900,
bowling green o 4.5
Kent state o 5
central michigan u 7.5
ohio o 6
if you go watch bowling greens media day it's easily the most upbeat a coach has been from any preseason interviews i've seen on teams. They have a center who started at cincinnati, some skill transfers, and the coach basically said if we took transfers a year early we could of won like 7 games last year. He thinks their run defense is finally for real. Kent state always has a horrible defense and they got a new dc this year. Ohio stole miami oh's dc. These could be some huge impacts. ...not so sure i'm sold on central who lost their oc, their ol coach, top wide receivers.
CUSA
champion - only team with decent odds fau +800
utsa o 8.5
fau o 5.5
utep o 5.5
i think utsa matches up well with some of their hard non con - army, houston. fau always liked their qb from miami fl, feels like they have more talent than some teams.
AAC
champion - cincy +190 ucf +325
ucf o 8.5
cincy o 9
i think ucf wins this conference this year with the ole miss transfer at qb who looks like he runs a 4.3.....dude is going to make some great plays. Tulane should be improved this year. Not sure i'm buying into what jeff scott is selling in tampa, i think that u 4.5 is live. they have a good oline but idn about their d.
Independents
Notre Dame U 8.5 - i'm not buying stock in marcus freeman and the projected qb starter buckner didn't look like he could throw vs va tech last year, if they didn't bring mediocre coan back in they lose that game. some of these mediocre teams they face like unc, boston college, cuse etc can upset them
liberty o 6.5 - most mystifying line i'm seeing out there - guessing its all cause of malik willis....freeze replenished with transfers and there is 6 gimmes on the schedule
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