ECF's Discussion: Celtics vs Heat

KJ said:
I simply don't have a clue where Boston wins two of the first four. HIGHLY unlikely they win one in SF, then we get to the point I'd prefer GSW to win 2 in Boston over Boston so that would be another non-chase. Pretty confident they either come back to SF up 3-1 or with the trophy.
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You forget golden st vs memphis? I think Boston more similar to them than Dallas. I prob will play them to win 1 at gs, that where the prices be good and hone/road hasn’t matterred in any their series. Not sure if I’m gonna play them gm1 or just wait tho, they been good after a loss. I still don’t think warriors anything special just cause they whipped mavs who were confused by zone, lol.
 
2daBank said:
You forget golden st vs memphis? I think Boston more similar to them than Dallas. I prob will play them to win 1 at gs, that where the prices be good and hone/road hasn’t matterred in any their series. Not sure if I’m gonna play them gm1 or just wait tho, they been good after a loss. I still don’t think warriors anything special just cause they whipped mavs who were confused by zone, lol.
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I haven't forgotten anything, at all

All along it was PHX/GSW/MIL were the only three...then Boston creeps up and due to recency bias (and metrics) suddenly they're in that mix? They aren't close to the same teams. Memphis probably beats Boston in 6.

I simply made a very bad mistake by thinking Boston was the team to beat a month ago, but forgot to Keep it Simple Stupid. These two teams are light years apart.
 
KJ said:
I haven't forgotten anything, at all

All along it was PHX/GSW/MIL were the only three...then Boston creeps up and due to recency bias (and metrics) suddenly they're in that mix? They aren't close to the same teams. Memphis probably beats Boston in 6.

I simply made a very bad mistake by thinking Boston was the team to beat a month ago, but forgot to Keep it Simple Stupid. These two teams are light years apart.
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Kinda disagree Not sure how we gonna call Boston a class below milw when they beat them? Granted I do think bucks beat Boston if Middleton healthy. We agree in that I don’t think Celtics are anything special. I guess where we differ is I don’t think those teams you listed were/are special either. All we have is handful of good, not great, teams imo.

Dubs have some deficiencies that I think Celtics have the kinda team to exploit them. I don’t think dubs will be able to play much zone vs C’s without it getting picked apart. They might be able to switch it up and play zone at times and it be effective but If they letting Boston prepare and see zone a ton I think they will carve it, not only with offense they run but on the offensive glass. It baffled me they were winning on the boards against mavs playing zone, I don’t think there any chance of that vs C’s. I do think there be times where the zone will encourage Boston to be stupid and die by the 3, of course there be times they get hot also. The entire time the rebounding edge gonna be there against zone imo. Thing is I think dubs prob will have to continue playing quite a bit of zone cause I don’t think they can match up playing straight up man. I think that leads to another back and forth series where games prob not all that close but the series is.
 
2daBank said:
Kinda disagree Not sure how we gonna call Boston a class below milw when they beat them? Granted I do think bucks beat Boston if Middleton healthy. We agree in that I don’t think Celtics are anything special. I guess where we differ is I don’t think those teams you listed were/are special either. All we have is handful of good, not great, teams imo.

Dubs have some deficiencies that I think Celtics have the kinda team to exploit them. I don’t think dubs will be able to play much zone vs C’s without it getting picked apart. They might be able to switch it up and play zone at times and it be effective but If they letting Boston prepare and see zone a ton I think they will carve it, not only with offense they run but on the offensive glass. It baffled me they were winning on the boards against mavs playing zone, I don’t think there any chance of that vs C’s. I do think there be times where the zone will encourage Boston to be stupid and die by the 3, of course there be times they get hot also. The entire time the rebounding edge gonna be there against zone imo. Thing is I think dubs prob will have to continue playing quite a bit of zone cause I don’t think they can match up playing straight up man. I think that leads to another back and forth series where games prob not all that close but the series is.
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But this all seems like recency bias which I get caught up with too.

I think Boston is worse than I thought they were a month ago and I think GSW are just as good as I thought they were a month ago. Go back another couple weeks and I'd probably bet on a GSW sweep. Not THAT much has changed to make me suddenly think....whoa, these teams are close. Got there for a few days and I think it was a mistake.
 
KJ said:
But this all seems like recency bias which I get caught up with too.

I think Boston is worse than I thought they were a month ago and I think GSW are just as good as I thought they were a month ago. Go back another couple weeks and I'd probably bet on a GSW sweep. Not THAT much has changed to make me suddenly think....whoa, these teams are close. Got there for a few days and I think it was a mistake.
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I dunno, I think I was giving the “top” regular season teams too much credit, I don’t think there a big gap at all. Just think dubs turned out to be a bad matchup for mavs, feel like boston size and physicality a tougher matchup for dubs, plus I don’t think they will forget how to play defense like mavs did.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno, I think I was giving the “top” regular season teams too much credit, I don’t think there a big gap at all. Just think dubs turned out to be a bad matchup for mavs, feel like boston size and physicality a tougher matchup for dubs, plus I don’t think they will forget how to play defense like mavs did.
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No shock it's the two best defenses in the league but Boston would need to step up exponentially against GSW compared to what they just did against basically a lifeless Miami. I seriously don't know what matchup the Celtics win and funny thing is I rarely give much a rip about matchups, it's about 10th on the list but I don't see what you're seeing I guess.

It feels like manufactured hype at best. Think if motivation was the same GSW talent beats Boston talent 8/10 games
 
All that said the fan in me actually wants Boston, no need for GSW to hoist another in our division no less.

But I really see a mismatch.
 
KJ said:
All that said the fan in me actually wants Boston, no need for GSW to hoist another in our division no less.

But I really see a mismatch.
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Funny cause I rather see Boston lose, I think their size and athleticism is def a issue for dubs tho. We agee defending heat isn’t all that difficult, they def won’t be able to sag off shooters like they did vs Miami but I don’t think they have to cause nobody on dubs can beat Boston defenders off the bounce and even if they do then they gotta deal with Robert Williams protecting the rim.
 
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2daBank said:
Funny cause I rather see Boston lose, I think their size and athleticism is def a issue for dubs tho. We agee defending heat isn’t all that difficult, they def won’t be able to sag off shooters like they did vs Miami but I don’t think they have to cause nobody on dubs can beat Boston defenders off the bounce and even if they do then they gotta deal with Robert Williams protecting the rim.
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Wiggins MVP
 
KJ said:
I see Kuminga being a huge factor, this matchup is about perfect for him to thrive
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Could be. Tough for me to trust a rookie in this kinda spot after not playing much throughout playoffs but I don’t disagree what he can do would be helpful.
 
I’d just be shocked if this wasn’t a long series. We see, I do think Boston almost has to win 1 of the 1st 2 for that to happen. Is this 2-3-2 or the same 2-2-1-1-1 format? Seems like it always changes, lol.
 
2daBank said:
I’d just be shocked if this wasn’t a long series. We see, I do think Boston almost has to win 1 of the 1st 2 for that to happen. Is this 2-3-2 or the same 2-2-1-1-1 format? Seems like it always changes, lol.
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Not like I book wager but I stand by my game total at 5.5 -150 over line, I really think it sets up for 6 but would prefer 5 much more than 7 if I was booking
 
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