E$PN INSIDERS - Steele/Harris Picks and a couple more ... Week 12

[NYGiants25]

My best Week 12 college football ATS bets
Phil Steele

Each week during the 2015 college football season I will offer up my selections and scores for the weekend's biggest games and a handful of other key matchups.

In the first 11 weeks my selections have now gone 85-25 (77 percent) picking the straight-up (SU) winners and 59-49-2 (55 percent) against the spread (ATS).


No. 12 Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (+4.5)
Noon ET, ABC
Michigan has barely survived its past two Big Ten road trips. The Wolverines were out-gained by Minnesota 461-296 and needed a goal-line stand to win by three. They needed a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass on the last play of regulation to force overtime and get past Indiana. Penn State is stronger than both those teams, is fresh off a bye and playing its final home game. Not only is Michigan on a second straight road trip, but it has "The Game" on deck. Penn State has a top 15 defense, an NFL-caliber quarterback and will pull off the upset.

ATS pick: Penn State
Score: Penn State 17, Michigan 16


No. 15 LSU Tigers (+4.5) at No. 22 Ole Miss Rebels
3:30 PM ET CBS
The situation favors Ole Miss, as the Rebels are fresh off a bye, while LSU has lost back-to-back games in which they were out-gained by a combined 874-512 and held to 54 and 59 yards rushing. LSU is 10-3 versus Ole Miss, with only one loss being by more than a field goal. The 'dog is 13-2 ATS in this series in the past 15 years and LSU is the higher-ranked team, getting over a field goal. Ole Miss has the edge at quarterback, but LSU has a larger edge at running back and also a defense that's allowing 46 fewer yards per game in SEC play. LSU's two-game losing streak will end with an upset win in Oxford.

ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 28, Ole Miss 27


No. 24 USC Trojans (+4.5) at No. 23 Oregon Ducks
3:30 PM ET, ESPN
The Ducks continue to surge now that Vernon Adams is healthy. They've knocked off Washington, Arizona State and Stanford on the road in their past four games. Oregon was out-gained by Arizona State by 241 yards, though, and needed a touchdown with eight seconds left to force overtime. Last week Stanford had a 32-18 first down edge, but Kevin Hogan fumbled two snaps in the fourth quarter and Stanford was stopped on the game-tying two-point conversion. USC hasn't played well as a large favorite, but in Pac-12 games where the spread has been under a touchdown, the Trojans show up motivated: They're a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS this season. USC is in the Pac 12 title game if they win out, and have the talent edge. The Trojans pulled the outright upset their last trip here in 2012 and will accomplish that feat again.

ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 38, Oregon 35


No. 20 Northwestern Wildcats at No. 25 Wisconsin Badgers (-10.5)
3:30 PM ET, Big Ten Network
Both teams are 8-2, but I feel the Badgers are the stronger team on both sides of the ball, and are in a favorable situation. Wisconsin is fresh off a bye, which should allow Corey Clement back on the field. Both teams have solid defenses, but in Big Ten play Wisconsin allows 98 fewer yards per game (259 versus 357). Wisconsin is out-gaining their Big Ten foes by 134 yards per game and had a 320-221 yard edge on Iowa at home. Northwestern is actually being out-gained by 59 yards per game in league play. The home team is 11-1 straight up in the series and 10-1-1 ATS. Northwestern has not traveled since October 24th, but in that game was fortunate to beat Nebraska, as at one point it had a 10-1 first down deficit, but led 14-5. Wisconsin has allowed just 207 yards per game at home (369 on the road), while Northwestern's offense averages 380 yards per game at home, but just 257 on the road.

ATS pick: Wisconsin
Score: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 7


No. 10 Baylor Bears (PK) at No. 6 Oklahoma State Cowboys
7:15 PM ET, FOX
Oklahoma State is the last of the Big 12's unbeaten teams, but a one-loss Big 12 champ still has a great shot at the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma State is playing with unbeaten pressure. The six unbeaten teams went 1-5 ATS last week with Baylor losing outright. Despite their unbeaten record, the 'Pokes are only plus-61 yards per game in conference play. While they beat a banged-up TCU 49-29 in their last home game, they were out-gained 663-456, benefiting from being plus four in turnovers. Baylor also has a large edge in running the football.

ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 44, Oklahoma State 38


No. 9 Michigan State Spartans at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (-13)
3:30 PM ET
If you are into angles, you will love the Spartans in this one. They are an outstanding 11-1 ATS as a 'dog, with seven outright wins. The visitor is 5-1 straight-up and 6-0 ATS in this series. This is the first ranked foe Ohio State has faced all year, while Michigan State has defeated two already. My computer loved Michigan over Michigan State, but I picked the Spartans to win outright, and they pulled the upset. While they needed a last-second miracle score, Michigan State did have a 386-230 yard edge.

Michigan State is just plus 42 yards per game and plus-10.6 points per game. Ohio State is plus-155 yards per game and plus-22.6 points per game. With those types of numbers, it is no wonder why Ohio State is almost a two-touchdown favorite. Ohio State has edges on offense, defense, special teams and is at home, while Connor Cook will probably not be 100 percent. Ohio State played its best ball at the end of last year in its biggest games and I give a slight lean to the favorite.

ATS pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 28, Michigan State 13


UCLA Bruins (+2) at No. 13 Utah Utes
3:30 PM ET, FOX
Both teams lost last week, but UCLA still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South. UCLA has played well on the road. In fact, it is plus-203 yards per game away, while Utah is only plus-15 yards per game at home. UCLA is playing with revenge after a tough loss at home last year. UCLA's defense is banged up, but it has held all but two opponents below their season average. While Utah has slight edges on defense and special teams, UCLA is averaging over 500 yards per game in Pac-12 play. The early weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the 50s, so the California boys won't have to worry about snow.

ATS pick: UCLA
Score: UCLA 27, Utah 24


Purdue Boilermakers (+22) at No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes
12:00 ET, ESPN2
Iowa is playing with unbeaten pressure, but doesn't need style points. If the Hawkeyes win out, they're in the playoff. As I mentioned earlier, unbeaten teams were 1-5 ATS last week. Iowa is solid, but not flashy and has eight wins over Power 5 teams by an average of 11 points per game. Only three of those eight teams, however, have a winning record. Iowa has to be concerned with its upcoming road trip to Nebraska. C.J. Beathard has not been 100 percent healthy, so don't expect him to be exposed much. Over his past three games, Purdue redshirt freshman quarterback David Blough has averaged 245 yards, completing 62 percent of his passes, with six TDs and three INTs. Purdue has faced three teams ranked by the committee, losing those by just an average of nine points per game.

ATS pick: Purdue
Score: Iowa 35, Purdue 20


Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (+8.5)
7:15 PM ET, ESPN2
Gary Pinkel loves his players and the players showed how much they love him after their upset of BYU. Pinkel is stepping down due to health reasons and this is his last home game, at night in the Zoo. The Tigers have a trip to Arkansas on deck and have to win one of their final two games to get to a bowl. Home 'dogs with the better defense are usually a solid play. Despite Mizzou being just 5-5, its defense is holding opponents to 81 yards per game below their season average. The Tigers offense has been the reason for their poor record, but Russell Hansbrough, who's been banged up, had his first 100-yard effort last week. True freshman Drew Lock continues to improve and threw for 244 yards, completing 68 percent of his passes last week. Tennessee has won only one SEC game by more than a touchdown.

ATS pick: Missouri
Score: Missouri 17, Tennessee 16

 

[NYGiants25]

Opening Kick: Early betting notes for college football Week 12
Will Harris

Just two weeks left and conference races are still hotly contested, with Florida and Bowling Green the only teams to have already clinched a division crown. This week we tour the top conference races and provide early predictions on the championship games. We'll also look at a pair of teams highly motivated to keep bowl hopes alive down the stretch, plus marvel at the prowess of Kansas State in November and Northwestern as a big underdog.

Note: Lines and futures are from the Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday afternoon except where otherwise specified. Preseason lines quoted are from 5Dimes unless specified. The Wynn is the first Las Vegas book to post college football lines each week, so its numbers are used for the Sunday openers when referencing the week's biggest moves.

Adjustments and Takeaways, Week 11

Championship scenarios in the top seven conferences, and an early stab at championship game matchups and results:

SEC
Alabama needs either an Iron Bowl win or an Ole Miss loss (to LSU or Mississippi State) to lock up the SEC West. The Rebels are the only other team still mathematically alive in the race. Florida has punched its ticket in the East.

Early lean: Alabama 20, Florida 10

ACC
Clemson has clinched the Atlantic Division and awaits the winner of the Coastal Division, likely North Carolina. The Tar Heels would become just the second team (2012 Duke) other than Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech to represent the Coastal in the ACC championship game by winning either of their last two games, or getting a Pittsburgh loss to either Louisville or Miami.

Early lean: Clemson 38, North Carolina 34

Big Ten
Iowa can clinch the Big Ten West Division by beating Purdue on Saturday; otherwise the Hawkeyes need to beat Nebraska next week or have Wisconsin drop a game to either Northwestern or Minnesota.

If Ohio State beats Michigan State on Saturday, the Buckeyes still need to either beat Michigan the following week or have Penn State do it for them in advance in order to clinch the East.

If Sparty beats the Buckeyes, then Michigan State would clinch the East with a win over Penn State next week. Michigan needs to beat Penn State and have the Buckeyes eliminate the Spartans, setting up a winner-take-all clash in Ann Arbor, Michigan, next week.

Early lean: Michigan 28, Iowa 21

Pac-12
Stanford will still win the North with a win over California or an Oregon loss to either USC or Oregon State. If Cal beats Stanford and Oregon wins out, then the Ducks will win the division. In the event of a three-way tie at 7-2 with both Stanford and Washington State, Oregon would win the tiebreaker with the best divisional record.

Both USC and UCLA control their destinies in the South Division. Wins in this week's road games at Oregon and Utah would set up a winner-take-all scenario in next week's battle for L.A. If UCLA loses at Utah, the Bruins are eliminated, but USC would still be alive with a loss at Oregon, though the Trojans would then need a Utah loss to Colorado. Utah needs simply to win out and have either Oregon or UCLA hand the Trojans a third league loss.

Early lean: Utah 30, Stanford 27

Big 12
The Oklahoma schools control the race, while TCU and Baylor are still alive but need help. Oklahoma has been atop our power ratings since surpassing preseason No. 1 Michigan State in Week 2 and we're still buying the Sooners as Big 12 and national favorites.

American
Houston and Navy, both unbeaten in conference play, will meet for the West Division title in two weeks, regardless of whether either stumbles as a road favorite this week.

Temple (5-1) could have clinched but let South Florida (4-2) back in the race last week with a 44-23 loss in Tampa, Florida. The Owls are still a game ahead with two league games left for each. These are the only two teams still alive in the race, and since the Bulls hold the head-to-head victory, Temple must maintain its one-game advantage.

Early lean: Houston 35, Temple 17

Mountain West
Only Nevada remains mathematically alive behind West Division front-runner San Diego State. For their head-to-head meeting in two weeks to become a winner-take-all affair would require both an Aztecs loss to UNLV and a Wolf Pack victory at Utah State.

New Mexico has shaken up the Mountain Division with back-to-back upsets of Utah State and Boise State. The Lobos control their destiny, as does Air Force. The Falcons are at Boise State this Friday and that result will clarify a tight race.

If favored Boise State wins, the Broncos would then just need to win the following week at San Jose State and have either Colorado State or Air Force beat New Mexico.

An Air Force win would eliminate the Broncos and set up a winner-take-all showdown in Albuquerque, New Mexico, in two weeks, provided New Mexico beat Colorado State. A Rams win would hand the division to the Falcons right away.

Early lean: San Diego State 21, Boise State 17


Games of Interest, Week 11

Indiana (+3) at Maryland
The Hoosiers haven't made a bowl since 2007, but came into this season with a veteran team thinking it could do a lot better than just six wins. The Hoosiers started 4-0, but have since lost six straight while putting a scare into the league's best teams. Two weeks ago this crew went into an open date at 4-4, knowing it would be an underdog in the first two November home games but that the final two on the road were against the two teams in the divisional basements.

Losing the first two -- narrowly, to superior teams -- won't destroy this team's confidence, which is very high for a 4-6 squad. We're looking to back the Hoosiers as they push for a bowl berth, and can't really see how Maryland is giving a full field goal in this scenario. Expect this to be closer to a pick'em by kickoff.

Virginia Tech (+6.5) versus North Carolina
The Hokies got it done for Frank Beamer in his last Thursday game, and will look to do the same in his final home game. We'll back them again getting points, and then again the following week at Virginia if and only if the Tar Heels win this week to drop the Hokies to 5-6.

Arkansas (-3.5) versus Mississippi State
We'll keep backing the second-best team in the SEC until the numbers begin to credit Arkansas as such.

Georgia Southern (+14.5) at Georgia
The Bulldogs scheduled this game when GSU was running the triple option under now-Army coach Jeff Monken. The teams also played in this slot in 2012, and Georgia found the matchup to be a good tune-up for the season-ender against Georgia Tech and Monken mentor Paul Johnson's similar offense. This will be Georgia's first look at Willie Fritz's style of option ball, though, and this year it's more than just a tune-up. The Eagles were shut out at West Virginia to open this season, but the three games versus Power 5 opponents between that West Virginia loss and the aforementioned 2012 meeting at Georgia were all impressive: a win at Florida as a 28-point underdog, a one-point loss at NC State as a 20-point underdog, and a four-point, last-minute loss at Georgia Tech as a 17-point underdog. The Georgia Southern program is not afraid of the big dogs, and Georgia had better prepare diligently for this one.


Movers and Shakers
Alabama is the sole favorite for the first time this year, clocking in at 5-to-2 again this week in the Westgate's national title futures odds while Ohio State falls to 11-4. Clemson is next at 7-2, down from 4-1 last week. The Tigers are followed in the bet order by Notre Dame (from 18-1 last week to 8-1 currently) and Oklahoma (20-1 to 10-1).

Oklahoma State at 12-1, Iowa at 20-1 and TCU at 25-1 are the only others lower than the 40-1 price on Michigan State.

There are few big early moves this week. UTSA opened at minus-1 over a slumping Rice squad, and the Roadrunners are now minus-3 at home.

Oregon opened as a field goal favorite at home against USC, and was quickly bet up to minus-4.5.

Iowa can clinch the Big Ten West this week and has been pushed from an opener of minus-17.5 versus Purdue all the way up to minus-21.5


Chalk Bits
Kansas State was notoriously strong in November during Bill Snyder's first stint as head coach, and since his return to the sidelines in 2009 the Cats are 9-4 ATS and 10-2 straight up in November home games.

Northwestern was a double-digit underdog 11 times in Pat Fitzgerald's first three years. The Wildcats won just two of those games and covered just four. In Fitz's nearly seven years since then, the Cats have been a double-digit underdog 11 more times. This time the record is 8-3 against the number and 6-5 straight up. Northwestern hasn't liked it much at Camp Randall, though. The Cats' past four trips to Wisconsin have all seen the Badgers cover as double-digit favorites.

The best ATS teams are getting it done in style lately. Oklahoma and Bowling Green have each covered five straight games by double digits, and Washington State has covered seven straight by double digits. Those three schools plus Southern Miss are all 8-2 ATS this year. We've got three more teams -- Northern Illinois, South Florida and Central Michigan -- listed at 7-2-1 against the closing number, and those could all be counted as 8-2 as well using the price from a different book.

Two weeks ago in a 31-13 home loss to Mississippi State, the oddsmakers finally laid a total on a Mizzou game low enough for the Tigers to get over, as the two teams eased past the 41 points. Another under cashing this week in Missouri-BYU leaves the under 9-1 in Tigers games this year, second only to Vanderbilt. The Commodores' 21-17 win over Kentucky slipped under the 41-point total and kept the under in Vandy games a perfect 10-0 on the year. Not even notorious all-D, no-O teams like Boston College and Connecticut -- both 8-2 going under on the year -- can match the low-scoring prowess of this black-and-gold SEC pair.

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 12 college football bets
Chris Fallica and Steve Coughlin

After an impressive 2014 season, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, of SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt, and Chris Fallica, of ESPN Stats & Information and College GameDay, are back. Every Wednesday during the college football season, they'll give their best bets for picking the weekend's top college football games.

2015 season record:
Fallica: 47-28-3 ATS (last week: 4-4)
Coughlin: 31-22-2 ATS (last week: 3-2)

2014 season record:
Fallica: 44-40 ATS (52.4 percent)
Coughlin: 45-28-1 ATS (60.8 percent)

Note: Against the spread (ATS)/total picks are in bold. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5) vs. Michigan State Spartans
Over/under: 51
Fallica: I've muttered the numbers before -- In its last 12 games as an underdog, Michigan State is 11-1 ATS with eight outright wins. So, this is clearly in the Spartans' wheelhouse. I wish I knew the deal with Connor Cook. He sure didn't look comfortable last week before or after an apparent shoulder injury. It sickens me to lay a huge number with a team that's burned money this year -- I'm still mad at myself for not taking the points with Oregon last week -- but as "off" as Ohio State has been this season, eight of its 10 wins have been by 14 points or more, which would get the money here. While the offense has struggled, the defense has been lights-out.

In the last four games, Ohio State has allowed four touchdowns in 50 opponent drives, with 21 drives failing to net a first down. Is this the week we see the Ohio State we've been expecting to see all season? If we do, the Buckeyes will win convincingly. If we don't, the Spartans are certainly capable of winning outright. Remember, too, how successful J.T. Barrett was vs. Michigan State (300 passing yards, 86 rushing yards) last season.

ATS pick: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 21

Coughlin: So, is this how Urban Meyer had it planned all year? Have College GameDay in town for this game and then Bobby drives the GameDay bus to Ann Arbor for "The Game" next week? It's amazing how Urban always has a plan drawn up and you would think he has an offensive game plan ready for the Sparty defense. Which gets me to another point: Does Michigan State have the manpower on defense to hold up against the Buckeyes' offense? I would think this unit will want to take shots early in what figures to be Barrett's return from his one-game suspension from his arrest. Emotions will run high in this game, and we'll say so will the points. Take the over.

Pick: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 25 (over the total 51 points)


Oklahoma State Cowboys (PK) vs. Baylor Bears
O/U: 80
Fallica: Welcome to this week's Big 12-devouring-its-own game. I didn't like what I saw from Baylor last week in Waco between injuries and the really good job Oklahoma did defensively. With Jarrett Stidham nicked up -- and no backup behind him -- the QB run is not really an option for the Bears. Baylor has 9 TDs in 26 drives the last two weeks, so the numbers do point out the regression. There is also a huge edge both defensively and on special teams for the Cowboys. It didn't go well for Baylor last time it was in Stillwater and I think the result will be the same this week. I love how QB J.W. Walsh and Mason Rudolph complement each other offensively. I think the Cowboys win and host the Sooners in two weeks for a Bedlam game with massive College Football Playoff implications.

ATS pick: Oklahoma State 41, Baylor 31

Coughlin: Who's knows what the heck is going to happen in this one. Did Corey Coleman play last week? What do you expect from Baylor a week after a season-crushing loss to Oklahoma? And on top of that, what are the expectations of Stidham, after what appears to be an apparent back injury suffered early in that loss to OU? Oklahoma State has everything to play for ... but it can't be that easy, right? Take the over and root for fireworks early and often.

Pick: Oklahoma State 41, Baylor 40 (over the total 80 points)


Virginia Tech Hokies (+6) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Fallica: "GameDay for Frank" didn't quite pan out, but the scene in Blacksburg should be quite memorable for Frank Beamer's final game at the stadium he's responsible for building. The Tar Heels have been a cover machine lately and have ripped through poor defenses the last two weeks. But as good as I think the Heels are in the eye test, the résumé shows just two wins away from home -- one-score wins at Georgia Tech and Pitt. Sometimes emotion can work against a team, but in this case I will side with the Hokies playing an inspired game for their departing head coach. And yes, I realize this could be a complete trap!

ATS pick: North Carolina 28, Virginia Tech 24


Vanderbilt Commodores (+7) vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Fallica: Vandy has gone under the total in every FBS game this year, so expect another low-scoring game here. The Commodores have allowed 17, 9, 3 and 10 points respectively in their last four SEC games. Texas A&M has been a huge disappointment, failing to cover in each of its last four games, twice as a favorite of 7 points or more. Turnovers have been the biggest issue, as the Aggies have turned it over at least three times four times in the last five games (10 INTs in last five games). The Aggies' QBR in that span (37.50) is considered average. With bad QB play, a road favorite and a solid D (seventh nationally in defensive efficiency) on the other side of the ball, it all adds up to taking the points.

ATS pick: Texas A&M 20, Vanderbilt 17


Georgia Southern Eagles (+15.5) at Georgia Bulldogs
Fallica: This is Georgia Southern's Super Bowl. Three years ago, the Eagles were beaten by 31 in Athens by a team which was one play from playing for the national title. But as we have seen, this Georgia side is a long ways from 2012. Georgia Southern has grown up some making the transition to FBS and I think the Eagles will give UGA all it can handle. Losing to an in-state school would put a capper on a disappointing season for the Bulldogs. I don't think that will happen, but I don't know how many points UGA will score given its issues at QB and injuries at RB. Georgia Southern will keep playing, that's for sure. I would suggest taking the points.

ATS pick: Georgia 35, Georgia Southern 24


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1) at Miami Hurricanes
Fallica: Even before I saw this number, my hunch was that Georgia Tech would be a great play this week. And now getting a point -- my guess is the line may even move to Georgia Tech as a favorite -- FPI says it should be around a five-point favorite. Miami's defense is not good - the Canes were gutted by North Carolina last week and have allowed huge numbers on the ground to Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Florida Atlantic. I can't imagine many people will be in attendance Saturday for the final home game of the season, and it will create a poor atmosphere where the Jackets will simply go out and execute against a Miami team which may have tapped out at this point. Remember, Georgia Tech isn't going to a bowl, but it has lost one-possession games to UNC, Pitt, Virginia and Virginia Tech. The 3-7 straight-up mark is deceiving.

ATS pick: Georgia Tech 37, Miami (FL) 28


UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes (-2)
Coughlin: This game seems pretty simple to me: Which team do you trust more? Utah comes home after a weird loss to Arizona in Tucson, and the Bruins come in off a gutting loss to Wazzu at home. So, both teams are in a tricky spot, especially seeing how they both have a chance to still play in the conference title game, with some more work to do. I just think Utah's defense matches up well with the Bruins' offense. I also believe Kyle Whittingham and his defensive staff could make things a little confusing for UCLA true frosh starting QB Josh Rosen, in what might be his toughest road start of the year. And if Rosen plays well, he's simply that good and deserves a look at first-team QB in the conference. Give the points here.

ATS pick: Utah 27, UCLA 20


LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (-4)
Coughlin: Wow, did this game lose some luster in the last couple weeks. Do you believe bye weeks mean anything? How about this late in the year? Would you rather be coming off a bye than coming off two losses where you just got dominated when both the teams you lost to made you throw the ball and proved that you can't? I would much rather be the Rebels coming in off a bye and also have that bad taste in my mouth from last year's loss in Baton Rouge. Even though the last time we saw the Ole Miss Landshark defense, it gave up 53 points in an overtime loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks, I feel like Hugh Freeze and his squad got what they wanted with a bye last week and a chance to get their mind right with two rivalry games in the next two weeks. Take the home team here.

ATS pick: Ole Miss 24, LSU 17

 

[TahoeLegend]

Thanks, Giant.

Couldn't find your thread last weak and only went 4-3. Coincidence? I don't think so.

 

[Frank Costanza]

Thanks for posting. Much appreciated.

 

[NYGiants25]

haha ... my bad ... was out of town and away from computer all week/weekend ... :shake:

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 12 college football ATS bets
Will Harris

Ten more teams became bowl-eligible last week, bringing the total to 63. With 80 postseason spots and 30 teams still on the bowl-eligibility bubble, it's possible that the bowls will escape without having to dip into the pool of 5-7 teams, but it's also more conceivable than ever that someone will join 2001 North Texas, 2011 UCLA and -- very controversially -- 2012 Georgia Tech as the only modern teams to crack the bowl lineup with losing records.

A 3-2 mark last week has us at 37-35 on the season. Read on as we back a trio of bubble teams that aren't ready to give up postseason hopes and another threesome of double-digit underdogs that have reasonable upset chances.

Note: All lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday, Nov. 19.


Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5) versus North Carolina Tar Heels
The Hokies have regained the services of injured quarterback Michael Brewer and are rallied up strong to send Frank Beamer out a winner. Tech lost four of five during a midseason stretch, but this team is still about as talented as any in the league. North Carolina has its best team in years, and maybe in another time and place could lay this Hokies squad some points, but Lane Stadium is going to be tough on the visitor in Beamer's final home game.

ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 34, North Carolina 24


Indiana Hoosiers (+2.5) at Maryland Terrapins
It's been a lost season for a Maryland team that fired its head coach early in the year and has spent the remainder of the 2015 season doing its best to set the NCAA turnover record. Maryland hasn't had a game with a positive turnover margin yet this year, despite being among the nation's leaders in forced fumbles, and the offense has only completed 50 percent of its passes once since September. Maryland has turned to the ground game, but quarterback Perry Hills -- the team's leading rusher -- hasn't had enough help from the tailbacks. Wes Brown had just surpassed Brandon Ross as the No. 1 back, but then he was suspended indefinitely. An already-thin receiving corps hasn't been able to stay healthy down the stretch.

None of that adds up to the Terps being able to trade scores with a potent Indiana offense that features the Big Ten's leading rusher in Jordan Howard and outstanding quarterback play from Nate Sudfeld. Indiana has lost six straight against a brutal schedule after opening 4-0, but only one of those was a game the Hoosiers should have won. This is a very good 4-6 squad, and we don't think this veteran group is ready to throw in the towel on a once-promising season that could still end with the team's first bowl win in nearly a quarter century.

ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Indiana 34, Maryland 27


Kansas State Wildcats (-5.5) versus Iowa State Cyclones
Another team that's not ready to relinquish fading bowl hopes, the Wildcats -- like Indiana -- have been victimized by a schedule that called for playing a bunch of league powers in consecutive weeks. This team has struggled to slow potent Big 12 passing attacks that run a lot of vertical routes and have the quarterbacks and receivers to deliver those throws successfully. This week, the Cats will be happy to see something more like their own offense: a downhill quarterback run game paired with a single featured tailback and a pedestrian passing attack. Kansas State's home record in November is very strong, and Iowa State has typically shown wide splits in its own home and away performance.

Like Indiana, the Wildcats have solid leadership and aren't likely to give up the bowl chase now that the schedule has finally lightened. The performance of the Cyclones' rush defense suggests that K-State quarterback Joe Hubener and running back Charles Jones (who is playing by far the best ball of his career) will be able to keep the chains moving.

ATS pick: Kansas State
Score: Kansas State 28, Iowa State 14


Georgia Southern Eagles (+13.5) at Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia scheduled this game when Paul Johnson disciple and current Army coach Jeff Monken was at Georgia Southern. It made sense in that context as a preparatory aid for the season-ending clash with Johnson's Yellow Jackets, but now that Willie Fritz is coaching in Statesboro, the Bulldogs are getting more than they bargained for. Georgia Southern still runs an option-based rushing attack, but Fritz' offense is a different kind of option football, and nothing like what the Dogs will see against Tech next week.

It's still a difficult and unique preparation, though, and one that should cause the Bulldogs some trouble. Given that and the struggles of Georgia's own offense, this seems a fair price even for a program that hasn't come within 20 points of Georgia in five previous meetings. The Eagles were shut out at West Virginia in the opener, but their three previous games against power five competition saw them beat Florida, lose to Georgia Tech by four and lose to N.C. State by one. This is a confident program accustomed to winning. It will be a tough out for a favorite that's no longer playing for any major prizes.

ATS pick: Georgia Southern
Score: Georgia 28, Georgia Southern Eagles 24


Michigan State Spartans (+13.5) at Ohio State Buckeyes
Both the unanimous preseason No. 1 team and the visiting Spartans have played below expectations this year. The result is that Ohio State is laying the same price in this game it was laying back in August. It looked too high then, and it still does, despite the loss on Sparty's resume and the uncertain status of quarterback Connor Cook. We're not sure that Michigan State can win this one without Cook at 100 percent, but the depth at quarterback is solid and this should be a competitive game even if it comes to a backup appearing under center at some point.

ATS pick: Michigan State
Score: Ohio State 31, Michigan State 24


Northwestern Wildcats (+10) at Wisconsin Badgers
We're still not bullish on the direction of the Wisconsin program under Paul Chryst. The defense will be stout as long as the Badgers can retain defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, and while one side of the ball performing at a high level might be enough to win this game against the offensively challenged Wildcats, it probably won't be enough to cover double digits. Northwestern's defense has been just as good or better than Wisconsin's, and it's not hard to see why the total on this game is barely 40. Ten points is a big, big number when it's a fourth of the total projected scoring.

ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Wisconsin 20, Northwestern 14

 

[NYGiants25]

Best Week 12 CFB totals bets
Warren Sharp
Using an advanced, metrics-driven computer algorithm as a foundation, Warren Sharp incorporates his in-depth research into game theory, efficiency, play-calling success rates, and scheme utilization to uncover inefficiencies in the NFL and college football totals market.

Every Thursday during the football season for Chalk, he will share his top totals bets for the upcoming college football weekend. On Fridays, he'll hit on the NFL.

Record this season
Full recommendations: 11-5
Split recommendations: 8-9
Overall: 19-14

Here are his top Week 12 college football totals bets:

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks
Total: 71.5
Last week Oregon brought one of the most run-heavy, slowest-operating teams in Stanford over the total. It was an amazing game for a number of reasons, but efficiency was certainly one of them. Oregon ran only 48 offensive plays and controlled the ball for less than 18 minutes. The Ducks went to third down only seven times all game against one of the better teams at forcing opponents into third downs, but now they get to face one of the easier teams to bypass third downs against in USC.

I mentioned in last week's recommendation that the Ducks' offense is much improved with QB Vernon Adams Jr. back from a broken finger and WR Darren Carrington back from a six-game suspension. But even using full-season metrics, the Ducks still rank sixth in explosive play offense, 15th in a custom efficiency metric I created and 11th in overall offense. Adams returns to Pasadena to play in a game that he indicated is a dream come true.

On defense, USC will be without its leading tackler, who was lost for the rest of the season last week. Offensively, USC will attempt to test the Oregon defense, which was on the field for 42 minutes last week against Stanford and enters with very poor metrics versus the run and in the red zone.

ESPN Chalk play: Over 71.5


Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos
Total: 55
Just last week the Broncos went up against an offense in New Mexico quite similar to Air Force's and struggled to contain it, allowing 31 points, 5.0 yards per rush and an unbelievable 15.6 yards per pass. That is despite New Mexico being 0-of-10 on third downs. Boise State quarterback Brett Rypien threw a remarkable 74 times. The ground attack was punishing, but an area that will likely still shock the Broncos and can result in immediate change in field position or points is the Falcons' passing attack. Last week against Utah State, the Falcons passed for 15.9 yards per pass and a total of 271 yards. Those numbers are far above their year-to-date averages, and they may look to further dig into the holes New Mexico unearthed in the Boise State secondary last week.

Air Force has a legitimately good defense, but its past four opponents each ranked 97th or worse in run efficiency, 75th or worse in pass efficiency and 79th or worse in a valuable custom offensive efficiency metric I created. Boise State's offense ranks better than every one of the Falcons' previous opponents, 28th in the custom efficiency metric and 24th in explosive play offense.

ESPN Chalk lean: Over 55


Rice Owls at UTSA Roadrunners
Total: 59
The Owls have gone up against a number of explosive teams this season, including Baylor, Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech and Southern Mississippi, all of which rank top-20 in explosive play offense. In part because of those tremendous offenses, Rice's defensive metrics are poor. However, this week they get to face UTSA, a team which ranks 125th in explosive play offense. The Roadrunners' offense ranks 114th in total efficiency.

On the other side of the ball, Rice would prefer to run, but the best way to attack UTSA is through the air, as its run defense ranks 55th in efficiency as compared to its pass defense, which ranks 110th. UTSA has played its share of passing teams, such as Oklahoma State, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech and Southern Mississippi this year, but last week against Charlotte, UTSA trailed 7-0 at halftime before a second-half point explosion sent the game to overtime and it ended with a 30-27 final score. Last week Rice put up zero first-half points but was down big to Southern Mississippi at halftime.

ESPN Chalk play: Under 30 first half (split recommendation)


New Mexico State Aggies at UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Total: 65
A month ago, the Ragin' Cajuns lost All-Sun Belt left guard Mykhael Quave for the season and have since tried to shuffle the offensive line, but it hasn't helped their most explosive playmaker, Elijah McGuire, gain any kind of production. Since that injury, McGuire is gaining fewer than 2.9 yards per carry after averaging over 6 yards per carry before that injury. The Ragin' Cajuns haven't had a single-game total exceeding 64 points since that injury.

New Mexico State was on a bye last week, but the previous game was its first starting redshirt freshman Nick Jeanty because of an injury suffered by Andrew Allen. However, due to a tragic shooting in his family, Allen (now healthy) won't be available on Saturday, forcing Jeanty to make another start. Against one of the worst defenses in the nation (Texas State), Jeanty was very inefficient, completing 53 percent of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt.

ESPN Chalk play: Under 34.5 first half (split recommendation)


UL Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats
Total: 62
Even without the injury to UL Monroe quarterback Garrett Smith and third-leading receiver Rashon Ceaser, my model was looking to back the under when this game opened at 65.5. In fact, despite the terrible defense Texas State plays, the model has been playing them under the past few weeks without a loss. For the most part these teams have been staying under the total, except for games when opponents have run up the score. In five of the Warhawks' six overs, their opponent has posted 51 or more points while they average only 19 points in those contests, and the results are similar for Texas State.

Despite both defenses being poor, the Warhawks will be by far the worst offense the Bobcats have faced in months, especially after playing three top 30 explosive play offenses in their past three games. ULM fired its head coach after the loss to Arkansas State and gave the interim title to defensive line coach John Mumford.

A team that lost its starting QB and a top receiver that then promotes a defensive line coach to run the team, typically won't decide to air it out and get ultra-aggressive offensively, particularly early. There is reason to believe this one starts out more conservatively.

ESPN Chalk play: Under 31.5 first half (split recommendation)

 

[TahoeLegend]

One of Sharp's statements in his analysis of Oregon/USC, "Adams returns to Pasadena to play in a game that he indicated is a dream come true" makes no sense.

The game is at Oregon, but even if it were at USC it would still not be in Pasadena.

Maybe he's talking about Adams wanting to play in the Rose Bowl, but everyone in the conference wants to play in the Rose Bowl.

 

[NYGiants25]

yea that's weird ... he must of had something different on his mind ... it would have to be the rose bowl, or maybe playing with some of the guys from Pasadena he played with back in the day? ... who knows, but yea its not in Pasadena this week

 

[Frank Costanza]

They must all be drinking this week....

Fallica above:

I think the Cowboys win and host the Sooners in two weeks for a Bedlam game with massive College Football Playoff implications.

Bedlam isn't in two weeks, it's next weekend. Surprised he didn't know that. It sure is big in factoring how Okie State preps / plays this weekend with an immediate, massive look-ahead to OU.