Dr. Bob is apologizing to his kool-aid drinkers this a.m.

M

Mark's Madness

Member
Weekly and Season to Date Results
This has truly been the stangest season of college football I can remember, as top 10 teams are dropping games on a regular basis and I've lost 3 straight weeks after winning 63.5% of my College Best Bets the last 3 years and 58% the last decade. I suffered my worst week on my College Football Best Bets since 2003, as my Best Bets went just 2-7 and 5-19 on a Star Basis with wins on Florida and Auburn (which became a 2-Star Best Bet when the line moved down to -7 at 8:47 am Pacific on Saturday) and losses on Southern Miss, Michigan State, Nebraska, Georgia, Arizona, Georgia Tech, and UCLA. I am now an unthinkable 10-19 on my College Best Bets this season and 24-50 on a Star Basis. I'm using the same math model and situational analysis that has worked so well for me over the years and all I can do is continue to work hard and use the same methods that have always worked. My Strong Opinions went 6-2 on the week (wins on Utah, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Fresno State, Ohio State, and Middle Tennessee and losses on Rutgers and Arizona State) and I certainly wish I had made more of those Best Bets.
I know it's hard to have faith in my Best Bets after 3 bad weeks, but I've shown in recent years that I can make up my losses pretty quickly. Those clients that have been with me in recent years certainly remember my 6 straight winning weeks last season (from week 3 through week 8) when I went 68-29-5 on a Star Basis. Or, my 7 straight winning weeks in 2005 (week 1 through week 7) when I was 63-19-2 on a Star Basis. And my 6 straight winning weeks in 2004 (week 3 through 8) in which I was 62-27-2 on a Star Basis - so I can certainly turn this season around pretty quickly. Another streak like that this year and I'll have yet another winning season despite the last 3 weeks of bad results. It is certainly the case that my 57% college Best Bet win percentage on over 1500 Best Bets in 20 years is more significant evidence of my ability than the 10-19 record on a sample of just 29 Best Bets. I know you're not really concerned with how I've done in past years because you're losing this year (unless you were fortunate enough to have been a client in those years), but my long term 57% winning record is more indicative of my future success than my 10-19 record so far this season and the future is all that matters at this point as nothing can be done about the losses I've suffered so far this season. I've overcome bad streaks before and I'll overcome this one as well. I may not end this season with a winning record given my bad start but I'm very likely to have a winning record from this point on given my long term win percentage. :3_8_14:
 
Its called the Tout Tapdance.

Anyone can get hot, and eventually the law of averages comes back to bite you.

A perfect case study is the covers flameout phenomenon. It happens usually in weeks instead of years, but nobody remains at 60% + for very long. Long term 55% cappers are the ones who win.
 
Thank you for posting this. I want to use this info and combine it with his plays from the last week to come up with a Dr. Bob tracking thread.

He's getting his ass kicked.
 
Interesting..glad he isn't quitting though...the line moves are jsut too nice.
 
For whatever reason I'm not as hard on Dr. Bob as I am on other touts, I don't follow him or anything, I just think he's closer to an actual 'capper than many touts.

I had no idea he was doing so bad this year, but I will say I agree him, this has been an extremely weird year.
 
At least he's owning up to it. Check out Kelso Sturgeon's website. He continues to refuse to update his record and only tout his two 25-unit winners on Sat., nevermind he's lost a 100 unit, two 50-unit winners, and a 25-unit in the last three weeks...amazing...
 
I am now an unthinkable 10-19 on my College Best Bets this season and 24-50 on a Star Basis.
Click to expand...

Something is just not adding up.

From another thread:

Thanks, so now he is:

9-18 33% Best bet winners
22-48 31% Star Basis Winners
Click to expand...

Bob's own thread makes him a 32% and 31% winner.
 
Auburn (which became a 2-Star Best Bet when the line moved down to -7 at 8:47 am Pacific on Saturday)

The above could account for the extra win(s), but not sure about the losses.
 
THink he gives a shit? he is making millions of his subscribers...he admitted he doesn't even bet his own picks!
 
HUNTDOG said:
he admitted he doesn't even bet his own picks!
Click to expand...

Maybe he does bet, but living in Northern California, he does not want to admit it..

It would be mean that he is either using offshore books and/or bookies, and perhaps he does not want anyone knowing where or how he bets.
 
Helmut said:
At least he is honest with his record and admits to losing unlike other nameless douche bags.
Click to expand...

Let's just say he is *convenient* with how he grades his wagers.

He is claiming that Auburn counts as a "best bet" because it went to -7 at
8:47 am Pacific time on Saturday morning.

I watch the lines from 6 am Pacific time on Saturday morning until the end of the day, and I only saw a couple of books with -7. Most had it -7 and a half.

-7 was not widely available yet he is counting it as a best bet when it was released as a "strong opinion".

that is BULLSHIT.
 
Joe Public said:
For whatever reason I'm not as hard on Dr. Bob as I am on other touts, I don't follow him or anything, I just think he's closer to an actual 'capper than many touts.

I had no idea he was doing so bad this year, but I will say I agree him, this has been an extremely weird year.
Click to expand...

I don't think he's the dishonest crook that so many of them are, but what he does is fuck with lines in a profound manner.......and it's....irritating to me. It screws with the markets, and while I sometimes reap the benefits (Cal -13.5 instead of -17 a couple weeks ago), for the most part he destroys ML dog value, and it pissed me off.

redbearde
boxing6.gif
dr.bob
 
redbearde said:
I don't think he's the dishonest crook that so many of them are, but what he does is fuck with lines in a profound manner.......and it's....irritating to me. It screws with the markets, and while I sometimes reap the benefits (Cal -13.5 instead of -17 a couple weeks ago), for the most part he destroys ML dog value, and it pissed me off.

redbearde
boxing6.gif
dr.bob
Click to expand...


I hear you Rebearde. But don't fret, the Dr. is fading into oblivion and he won't be coming back. He had his run, and now he's done. You can only beat this handicapping game with math for so long, but then you must have a feel for the teams.

I have been fading him since last November and the fading has been very very good to me.
 
A new theory that some subscribe to involving this guy is that Walters finally got to him... Paying him lots of $$$ (more than customers could ever come up with) to release the wrong side of Billy's games on Thursdays, so Billy can come back and hammer the opposite side on Saturday for as much money as he wants at a much better price.

I didn't buy it at first... and I'm not saying I'm buying it now, but it does seem a bit more possible after seeing this abysmal run and his inexplicably poor writeups this season when looking at some from the last two seasons in comparison...
 
Yeah, Rex. I'm not quite buying it. That is a short term payoff. If Bob destroys his reputation this year, he can't recoup it later. Maybe if he was trying to figure out an exit strategy but why shoot the golden goose.
 
GG: That I don't agree with. I have a friend back home that can't tell you one coach - well, maybe a couple ... but no players... he has a system that he's worked on for years and last year, he started making mythical bets to see how he'd do - he won like 61 percent.

This year he's sitting at 56 percent (I think his record is actually 56-44 with a fistful of pushes in there) and is actually betting them... Math does indeed play a great role in all of this.

Any handicapper can tell you Green Bay was dominant in the first half, but kept turning it over ... but a mathmatican (sp?) will tell you Bears 2H OVER is the best bet because of their average 2H points scored and allowed vs. the competition they've done it (and gotten scored) against...

A great combo is a mixture of both - hence, why I'm working so hard on trying to master the art of intermediate math for gamblers (which involves, basically, knowing as much as possible about betting good numbers and prices and always getting the best of it - VALUE being the most key word I could use involving math)
 
RJ - You prolly right. Like I said, I'm not buying it. Just a couple of peeps in the industry.

And if he were doing that, it wouldn't take us long to figure out. We're a pretty tight-knit group down here and we know who is betting what just by talking to people at other shops and comparing "notes", so to speak...
 
rex, i had a thought similar to this. Never though about a big money guy like walters or anything. But something, that got to him. Vegas, maybe, their books don't make anything, but that really wouldn't make much sense as people from across the US can't bet their with ease.

Outside of the conspiracy theory, maybe his model was comprised of stats that were more relevant in the past than in recent times. More spread offenses, more quick scoring offenses, and less emphasis on the rush first pass later mantra that those like Nehlen, for example, liked to implore.

If one were to study his plays to try to find a similar link between them, one might be able to see more of the story.

Just rambling. I will say one thing. I wish he was good, cause I could rape my local by jumping the lines before he moved them. Asked him for some numbers last Thursday at about 6 or so, still had the lines pre-bob. Didn't hit any of them tho, even tho he's been a great fade. I prefer to be utterly mediocre with only myself to blame.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
A new theory that some subscribe to involving this guy is that Walters finally got to him... Paying him lots of $$$ (more than customers could ever come up with) to release the wrong side of Billy's games on Thursdays, so Billy can come back and hammer the opposite side on Saturday for as much money as he wants at a much better price.

I didn't buy it at first... and I'm not saying I'm buying it now, but it does seem a bit more possible after seeing this abysmal run and his inexplicably poor writeups this season when looking at some from the last two seasons in comparison...
Click to expand...

How difficult is it to confrm Walters' plays? If someone find this out and he is opposite Dr Bob on his biggies, then it can be proven if its done on a weekly basis.
 
I dont follow Bob or his picks, simply because I have my own system and have been very succesful the last two seasons, and my system seems to be working.

But a friend of mine plays about 90% his own plays based on what Dr. Bob puts out there, and he is convinced Bob is selling his picks to the line makers. lol Just thought Id share that and see if the thought had ever crossed anyone elses mind.
 
RickyBoobie said:
I dont follow Bob or his picks, simply because I have my own system and have been very succesful the last two seasons, and my system seems to be working.

But a friend of mine plays about 90% his own plays based on what Dr. Bob puts out there, and he is convinced Bob is selling his picks to the line makers. lol Just thought Id share that and see if the thought had ever crossed anyone elses mind.
Click to expand...

After Bob had an incredible run in 2005, several sportsbooks were rumored to have secretly become subscribers just so they could get the plays and quickly move the lines before his regular subscribers could bet them.
 
I'm not here to defend Dr. Bob or anything. I have no idea if he is in fact as good as he says he is long term. For all I know the guy is a fraud.

But even if he is in fact that good, 33% winning rate in a small sample size of only 30 decisions is a completely normal part of mathematical probability. It's called the binomial distribution and anyone who's taken an introductory statistics course in college should be familiar with the concept. That's why we all have winning streaks and losing streaks. Doesn't necessarily mean that we're better when we're on winning streaks or that we're worse when we're on losing streaks. It just happens.

Let's say Dr. Bob is in fact as good as he says and that long term he can expect to hit 58% of his "best bets". What are the chances that after only 30 decisions he would be either 17-13 or 18-12 (the closest records to 58%)?
n = outcomes = 30
p = probability = 0.58
Then you can go to this handy binomial distribution calculator and enter those numbers. You'll see that his chances of being exactly 17-13 are 14.42% and his chances of being exactly 18-12 are 14.38%. So with that small a number of outcomes, he has a 71% of being anything other than 17-13 or 18-12.

Now what are the chances he'd be exactly 10-20? You can see it's only 0.337%. Not very likely but nevertheless things happen all the time that only have that small a chance of happening. The chance that he would have anywhere less than 50% are 14.19%.

Again I'm not defending the guy. My point is simply that you can't judge anyone on only 30 decisions. The best of the best sports bettors do have losing streaks like this. If you enter n = 150 in the binomial distribution calculator (the most their calculator will let you enter for n) you'll see that as n gets larger the chance of major variance from expected outcomes gets much smaller.
 
What makes Bob's fall compelling is not the fact that it is statistically possible, we all know that it is.

What makes this most compelling is that many people on many different websites predicted that this would happen very soon after last season, and sure enough it did. They cited many factors such as the linesmakers reverse engineering his past picks and adjusting their own math models to match is, and also the fact that Bob got married earlier this year. Marriage means making your partner a bigger priority than ever before, and this might also be a factor in him struggling. More than anything though, it's his math model being figured out and the linesmakers adjusting, not to mention other bettors beating him to the numbers.

Personally, I bet my plays that are more math-based on wed night or thurs morning, just to lock in my numbers. This year, I have not been on many of the same plays as Bob, but last year, we matched up about 25% of the time, and I beat his followers to the best number every single time.

It helps.
 
Would someone answer me this, why does Dr. Bob provide such detailed explanations for his plays? If they are supposedly based on a mathematical scale, then why doesn't he say these are the plays because the numbers say so? It's a 4 star play at -13.5, 3 star up to -15.5, and 2 star up to -17.5. Period.

But instead, he gives these write-ups that explain his pick. Why does he have to explain it, besides the fact that is the second course they take in tout school, right after they learn to hustle public forums. There have been a few write-ups this year that have been just totally off the wall, like he hasn't seen either team play, and is just making something up from a box score or SportsCenter highlights. I don't know, maybe it's me, but some of them just really puzzled me.
 
Hoops, Bob has admitted in interviews that he does not watch the teams play, although he does attend Cal games because it is his alma mater and favorite team.

I believe that one thing that really helps me is that I try and watch every team play at least a little bit on Saturdays, either live or a recorded game.
It gives a feel for what kind of push they get on the offensive line, how physical they are on defense, quarterback play on whether int's were his fault or were they tipped passes, dropped passes, etc. How explosive a RB is.

I'm curious what others think about how much it helps them to actually watch teams play.....

Returning starters and math can only get you so far in this, I'm telling you.

IMO, you must develop a feel for the teams from a physical standpoint, and sometimes play psychiatrist and guess how they will feel emotionally. An educated guess, but still a guess.
 
gridironguy said:
I'm curious what others think about how much it helps them to actually watch teams play.....
Click to expand...

I don't think there is any doubt it helps. Think about some of the guys on the board and other boards you may or may not frequent that watch a lot of one team or one conference even. They are generally pretty accurate in their assessment of a game(s) that includes that team(s). I think there is more value with the smaller conference games (i.e., MAC, MWC, WAC, C-USA), too, but that's not the point.

I think watching the games are invaluable, and even more so when you can find unbiased and informative opinions from the people that watch them (i.e., RJ with Texas and Big 12; Carolina and the Sun Belt; JPicks and Kyle with MWC; ETG with SC; BC and P&G and LSU; bjorks with Minny, ASU and PAC-10; Rexy with just about fucking anything; Fondy and Signal with Wisconsin (well, Signal, anyway); all the tOSU and Michigan crazies, and B.A.R., STEED, Hunt, Jump and Red with...well, bad example as they really don't know shit about anything and contribute very little...;)).

That's one of the main reasons why I especially like visiting this site...
 
Sarcastic Sword said:
How difficult is it to confrm Walters' plays? If someone find this out and he is opposite Dr Bob on his biggies, then it can be proven if its done on a weekly basis.
Click to expand...


It is damn near impossible. With all the bullshit he pulls early in the week, betting a game on the wrong side... he gives some of his people that we KNOW are his beards the wrong side sometimes just so he can send ANOTHER beard in on gameday or even in the half-hour or so before kickoff to bet the other side.

I think he likes everyone WONDERING who he has more than winning his bets.
 
gridironguy said:
After Bob had an incredible run in 2005, several sportsbooks were rumored to have secretly become subscribers just so they could get the plays and quickly move the lines before his regular subscribers could bet them.
Click to expand...

That is 100 percent truth. A few people down here bought them and communicated with a few others who helped pay for his service and in 2006 and beyond, some people never once got the right line once his plays came out - at least at the shops that paid for Dr. Bob's email...
 
gridironguy said:
What makes Bob's fall compelling is not the fact that it is statistically possible, we all know that it is.

What makes this most compelling is that many people on many different websites predicted that this would happen very soon after last season, and sure enough it did. They cited many factors such as the linesmakers reverse engineering his past picks and adjusting their own math models to match is, and also the fact that Bob got married earlier this year. Marriage means making your partner a bigger priority than ever before, and this might also be a factor in him struggling. More than anything though, it's his math model being figured out and the linesmakers adjusting, not to mention other bettors beating him to the numbers.

Personally, I bet my plays that are more math-based on wed night or thurs morning, just to lock in my numbers. This year, I have not been on many of the same plays as Bob, but last year, we matched up about 25% of the time, and I beat his followers to the best number every single time.

It helps.
Click to expand...


Great damn post, GG... I'm sure some of the people who work out in Vegas and offshore have been paid to figure out how he comes up with his ratings and they try to help incorporate those who help come up with the opening numbers offshore and out there.

Really good thread, fellas...
 
counselor said:
I don't think there is any doubt it helps. Think about some of the guys on the board and other boards you may or may not frequent that watch a lot of one team or one conference even. They are generally pretty accurate in their assessment of a game(s) that includes that team(s). I think there is more value with the smaller conference games (i.e., MAC, MWC, WAC, C-USA), too, but that's not the point.

I think watching the games are invaluable, and even more so when you can find unbiased and informative opinions from the people that watch them (i.e., RJ with Texas and Big 12; Carolina and the Sun Belt; JPicks and Kyle with MWC; ETG with SC; BC and P&G and LSU; bjorks with Minny, ASU and PAC-10; Rexy with just about fucking anything; Fondy and Signal with Wisconsin (well, Signal, anyway); all the tOSU and Michigan crazies, and B.A.R., STEED, Hunt, Jump and Red with...well, bad example as they really don't know shit about anything and contribute very little...;)).

That's one of the main reasons why I especially like visiting this site...
Click to expand...


Damn, Counselor... you're making me blush over here...

And I saw that last remark too, about "shady characters"... Hell, we're not shady. We have a business to run and money to make, just like anyone else back home. We have people everywhere all over the country and beyond looking for any little mistake, any ***** in our armor... people who want to rob us blind. If we don't stay a step ahead of the game, we won't survive...
 
A new theory that some subscribe to involving this guy is that Walters finally got to him... Paying him lots of $$$ (more than customers could ever come up with) to release the wrong side of Billy's games on Thursdays, so Billy can come back and hammer the opposite side on Saturday for as much money as he wants at a much better price.
Click to expand...
i heard similar stuff. that vegas gives him lots of money to release the wrong side. i don't know if it's true.
i also wouldnt be surprised if walters gives him lots of money for one or two of his picks so that he picks the wrong side for his subscribers and walters gets the line he wants.

Would someone answer me this, why does Dr. Bob provide such detailed explanations for his plays? If they are supposedly based on a mathematical scale, then why doesn't he say these are the plays because the numbers say so? It's a 4 star play at -13.5, 3 star up to -15.5, and 2 star up to -17.5. Period.

But instead, he gives these write-ups that explain his pick. Why does he have to explain it, besides the fact that is the second course they take in tout school, right after they learn to hustle public forums. There have been a few write-ups this year that have been just totally off the wall, like he hasn't seen either team play, and is just making something up from a box score or SportsCenter highlights. I don't know, maybe it's me, but some of them just really puzzled me.
Click to expand...
i was asking that myself when i first heard of dr bob and read his stuff. i'm now pretty sure that there is no math model or at least his picks are not only based on that.


GG: That I don't agree with. I have a friend back home that can't tell you one coach - well, maybe a couple ... but no players... he has a system that he's worked on for years and last year, he started making mythical bets to see how he'd do - he won like 61 percent.
Click to expand...
i have a friend who is a great capper in soccer but he knows nothing about college football or the nfl. but he makes huge profits since he started betting on it 3 years ago. he just has a system that is based on the line movements in vegas. yesterday he had miami, 49ers, chargers, bears and the jets (all ats).
 
counselor said:
I think watching the games are invaluable, and even more so when you can find unbiased and informative opinions from the people that watch them (i.e., RJ with Texas and Big 12; Carolina and the Sun Belt; JPicks and Kyle with MWC; ETG with SC; BC and P&G and LSU; bjorks with Minny, ASU and PAC-10; Rexy with just about fucking anything; Fondy and Signal with Wisconsin (well, Signal, anyway); all the tOSU and Michigan crazies, and B.A.R., STEED, Hunt, Jump and Red with...well, bad example as they really don't know shit about anything and contribute very little...;)).

That's one of the main reasons why I especially like visiting this site...
Click to expand...

I unimaginably forgot Hawaiiguy with Hawaii...very solid...
 
Im surprised as to the backlash on using a mathematically based system, but I am guessing that it generally comes from people that don't have real extensive math backgrounds to begin with. Crap like "oh lets take the average of the 2 teams playing and weight it by the schedule strength" is never going to work in the long run-no kidding. But there are always little factors and trends and angles that do work that make sense logically that will work. I'm an actuarial student right now which prices insurance, and we do a lot of the same exact stuff as you are looking at for gambling-just looking at different factors.

Its the same idea, too-all our competitors have similar data (actually, in some cases, they don't...which is the one advantage top insurance companies have over top gamblers)---but a little bit of thinking outside of the box and you've got yourself a gold mine...

Obviously the Vegas books are looking at a lot of the same stuff, and you have to somehow beat them to the edge. There are only a few ways to do it that make any sense longterm, but in the short term for your average $100 bettor or so, no one is going to give a shit if you don't go tout, and you can roll in the dough.

I'm fairly confident that I have fallen onto something with college basketball, and I'll be sharing the picks with the forum as much as I can...but who knows how long it will work, and who knows if I'll ever find something for the other sports...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

RBTrojan
USC @ Oregon -16
Replies
4
Views
419
STEED
STEED
steponaduck
NCAA FB RSW DISCUSSION
2 3
Replies
103
Views
3K
steponaduck
steponaduck
B.A.R.
Summer CFB Discussion-- Texas RBs dropping like flies
2 3
Replies
109
Views
3K
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
bones
ESPN's Handicappers Picks Week #12
Replies
33
Views
1K
TahoeLegend
T
Vapster
Arizona St. In Miserable Washington ( Approx. 45% Rain Days In A Year!) West Game Of The Night!!!
Replies
3
Views
366
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
Back
Top