Dollaz 2015 Season

Dollaz

Dollaz

Egor Demin Watch Club Member
My 2nd favorite sport to cap. Excited that I finished up my spreadsheet for the year and figured out a way to input faster thus drastically cutting down my capping time. I should easily be able to input lineups and have my lines spit out this year so pumped for that.

I have not made any plays yet as my book hasn't opened totals yet. I've been very successful the past couple years as season long win totals and hope to continue it this year.

Just going through numbers, these things pop out to me:

I have Kershaw winning 74% of his starts at a neutral location....holy shit that team and him are good!
The Nats staff is dominant. They shouldn't give up 600 runs this year. I have Gio rated as the worst of the lot and I project that the Nats would give up 638 runs per season if he started every game. That's crazy, most teams 5/6th starter is close to 800 in my projections.

I like what Boston did but I think TB will have a surprisingly good year and the Oreos will finish last in that division.

I have KC falling way off the table.

I think Texas may finish over .500 so I suspect they will be a total I look at as well as Houston over in that division

I have the Mets near .500 so they may et a look from me. Probably under for the Marlins with the hype of some deals that I personally don't like.

Cards, Nats, Dodgers should all run away from the division and I expect all 3 of the AL divisions to be really close.

I like the Cubs this year, I could see a .500 record.

Im curious to see if SD is over hyped based on wheelin and dealin. I have them at .500ish.


Best of luck all, I will be adding some as the totals come out and will try to put up some projections.
 
To your Kershaw point, I have been contemplating betting him every start this yesr no matter what. I know they will have to win an insane % of his starts to offset the heavy juice. But feel no reason why he or team would regress
 
As of right now my lines with Kershaw on the mound (vs other teams projected first starter):

Home ranges from -168 (stl) -397 (Col)
Away ranges from to -120 -256
 
They are certainly the fav in my book. Think they may be a bit over valued though.........still may make a play on them.
 
i really like Miami's rotation, even with Fernandez not returning til around the break.

Feel similarly with Texas and that park with the wind tunnel should give us some high scoring games combined with value on a home team that most people won't like. Also think TB has a rotation to win close, low-scoring games at home, but I'm nervous about the hometown Sox.

Hope to see you and everyone in the daily discussion threads :shake:
 
Value wise, I like Seattle at +1200 and Tampa at +5000.

Tampa- Not a great lineup, but I like Jaso's bat and I think Souza is going to be a huge surprise. I think they have some solid depth position player wise

Seattle- This team really improved. The addition late last year of Jackson, along with Seth Smith, Logan Morrison, and Cruz should really improve the offense. I think Seager may be the most underated player in baseball.
 
Ridiculous value on the Rays. I have the Rays at 85-90 wins this year. I took them to win AL East +700 and to win world series +5000


I will make a 5 unit olay on over when the line opens back up for me. Rays will likely be a team I ride early and often.

I will add but generally think they had terrible luck last year. I love rotation and I think Souza is really going to perform for them.
 
Trout under 32.5 homers -115
Harper over 24.5 homers -115
Heyward over 17.5 homers -115
Red Sox under 85.5 -110
 
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Brewers -148
Reds -117
Dodgers -184
Yanks -133
Det -157
TB -125


Hate this much chalk, but playing my numbers.
 
Dollaz said:
Ridiculous value on the Rays. I have the Rays at 85-90 wins this year. I took them to win AL East +700 and to win world series +5000 I will make a 5 unit olay on over when the line opens back up for me. Rays will likely be a team I ride early and often. I will add but generally think they had terrible luck last year. I love rotation and I think Souza is really going to perform for them.
Click to expand...
I think with a new manager and a short cash situation I would be moderate here.
 
Well, TB certainly didn't come out of the gates well and injuries have crushed them so far. Hopefully, they aren't too far out when they get healthy.

Not a good start so far for me, but it will come.

Glad to see some dogs finally showed up on my lines as I thought I was going to just get killed with chalk all year long.

Mil -142
SD +126
Det -173
NYY -117
TB -119
Hou +117
Sea -126 (I only play 1 unit bets right now, but this would be biggest play)
 
Really shocked to see the low line with the Nats at home and Stras on the hill. I know they have some injuries, but I only give the Mets a slight advangtage on position players and inferior bullpen. But, my numbers don't support a play (line only about 5 cents off). Still, I'm going with gut on Nats.

Adding Tex +142

Cincy +105
Min +134
Wash -112
White Sox +129
Houston -103
Texas +142
 
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