Doggy Bowls

scdoggy · Dec 21, 2013

Haven't had a ton of time to cap these games so tread lightly, but I can't help taking a big swing at one on this card today:

Wazzu/CSU Under 33.5 first half .5 unit

USC -6 three units

Woodshed. Trojans should win this game by 21. Big step up in class for a Fresno team who has played an extremely soft schedule. Trojans 19th in the land in TOP, should give us a Fresno defense that is just gassed in the second half, where depth and talent will be too much for Carr to overcome by himself.

braves · Dec 21, 2013

gl, doggy...moving this to cfb

GoIrish! · Dec 21, 2013

gl doggy...couldn't agree more

scdoggy · Dec 21, 2013

Thanks Braves.

GL Irish.

Coverdatspred · Dec 21, 2013

Agree with USC. I think we see an interested Trojan team today, I like what I've been reading locally about their motivation.

Bilson · Dec 21, 2013

You don't think Fresno can give USC a game? They've looked solid all year. Like the under and also like CSU in that game. Good luck.

bloodhound · Dec 21, 2013

GL doggy

CHSGTMD · Dec 21, 2013

Agree Doggy, best to you this bowl season, appreciate your posts and info

scdoggy · Dec 23, 2013

Sorry guys. Been an extremely busy Holiday season for me this year. Haven't had the time I've wanted to devote to writeups, but things should settle down in a few days. 1-1 so far + 2.45 units

ECU should clobber the Bobcats today. I do worry about them being able to run the ball and grind away a lead but this one shouldn't be close at all. Two plays:

ECU -14 -120 1.5 units
ECU first half over 20 -120 half unit

tipyerbartender1 · Dec 23, 2013

Shit, this game's at 2 isn't it? Have to figure out whether I want a part of this, think OU gets buried. Good luck doggy.

Two Utes · Dec 23, 2013

GL doggy.

scdoggy · Dec 23, 2013

Gross first half. ECU doing what they can to blow this...

Second half under 34.5 -105 1.3 units

tru · Dec 23, 2013

GL doggy

scdoggy · Dec 24, 2013

Thanks Tru. Merry Xmas. Hope Santa brings you a Shanny poster for your ceiling.

3-2 +4.65 units

Boise first half +1.5 1.2 units
Boise +3 1 unit
Boise +135 .5 unit

I put some thoughts into Silk's thread which does a great job covering this game. Bottom line, I think Mannion is overhyped, and I'll take a team that can run, vs. one that can't stop the run all day every day. Doesn't matter how good a QB is if the other team can control TOP, and salt away a lead.

Interesting note on these two teams. Between both, they have played 24 games this year. The first half ATS winner also covered in the full game 23 of 24 times. Boise losing the first half vs. Fresno, yet covering the full game was the only time this year that the outcomes were different. Something to remember when looking at the halftime lines this evening.

Hope everyone has a great Holiday. Peace.

Two Utes · Dec 24, 2013

GL doggy, you may not need it as I'm on the Beavs......running quite cold at the moment.

bloodhound · Dec 24, 2013

scdoggy said:
3-2 +4.65 units

Boise first half +1.5 1.2 units
Boise +3 1 unit
Boise +135 .5 unit

I put some thoughts into Silk's thread which does a great job covering this game. Bottom line, I think Mannion is overhyped, and I'll take a team that can run, vs. one that can't stop the run all day every day. Doesn't matter how good a QB is if the other team can control TOP, and salt away a lead.

Interesting note on these two teams. Between both, they have played 24 games this year. The first half ATS winner also covered in the full game 23 of 24 times. Boise losing the first half vs. Fresno, yet covering the full game was the only time this year that the outcomes were different. Something to remember when looking at the halftime lines this evening.

Hope everyone has a great Holiday. Peace.

GL and a Great Holiday to u my friend

Detox · Dec 24, 2013

Glad to see you on it, gl doggy.

scdoggy · Dec 24, 2013

Nothing has changed in my mind since this am, so I can't let this steam go untouched. If I saw value this morning, then current numbers have to get hit.

Boise +170 .7 unit
Boise +4 -101 one unit

scdoggy · Dec 24, 2013

Well, I was right about one thing. The team that could run would win. Boise just looks a mess. Nothing second half for me.

scdoggy · Dec 27, 2013

Bowls YTD 3-5 +.02 unit

Marshall -2 -108 .7 units
Marshall -2.5 -110 one unit
Marshall -135 one unit

Marshall has a balanced attack that should be able to score on the Terps, and grind away a lead if they are up late in this one. Maryland is just not a good football team, and the fact that they are dogged here tells me all I need to know in this one. What kind of motivation do these kids have after cracking the top 25 with aspirations of playing someplace warm and sunny for their bowl game against a prestigious school, and now they end up 30 miles from home playing Marshall? I'll be very surprised if we see a good effort from them today.

Some stats I like:

3rd down conversions - Marshall 5th in the country at 52%, Terps 110th in the land at 32%.
Turnover margin - Marshall +2, Maryland -6

Huge red zone TD percentage advantage to Marshall too. Lean under in this game, but like Marshall side much better. Nothing for me in the Cuse/Minny game, and will probably play BYU this evening. GL

wiseplayer · Dec 27, 2013

I'm curious as to why you would lean under? Don't see this staying anywhere near an under.

scdoggy · Dec 27, 2013

Wise - Maryland's defense is going to put pressure on Cato and are better than most of the secondaries Marshall has faced this year. Maryland's red zone effectiveness = FG's and not TD's. 34-24 ish...

bull · Dec 27, 2013

hope you're correct, doggy. I'm with ya, FWIW.
GL

scdoggy · Dec 27, 2013

BYU second half +155 .75 unit
BYU second half +3 -115 one unit

Johnnyonthespot · Dec 27, 2013

Nailed Marshall game. Perfect.

bull · Dec 28, 2013

scdoggy said:
Wise - Maryland's defense is going to put pressure on Cato and are better than most of the secondaries Marshall has faced this year. Maryland's red zone effectiveness = FG's and not TD's. 34-24 ish...

You missed the final margin by just 1 pt. Great work !! :cheers::cigarguy::clapping:

scdoggy · Dec 28, 2013

Thanks Johnny & Bull. Hope you guys are enjoying the Holidays. Nothing like drinking and having football on damn near every day.

Just above the mendoza line so far at 5-7 up .92 units, but I'll take it. Today its time to shit or get off the pot with two early plays I like quite a bit:

ND team total UNDER 34 -110 2.75 units

I should probably be playing Rutgers as well here, as I think they do cover but the basis of this one is that Notre Dame just doesn't do enough well offensively to drop 35+. Notre Damn not a particularly got od rushing team, they have a negative turnover differential, their red zone numbers stink. I expect them to move the ball through the air today and hopefully Rutgers can limit the big plays enough to get them to come away with 3's instead of 7's when they get close.

Cincy/UNC Over 58 -110 two units
Cincy +125 half unit
Cincy +3 -109 1.5 units

I see a ton of points scored today in Charlotte, and Cincy has done well enough away from home to take a crack at the ML and spread. Bearcats finish the season covering their last three straight on the road. I see a very close game that comes down to the last possession, so I'll take the dog and the points here. Big punt return advantage for UNC is my biggest fear about the heels. If you can get a prop on a special teams score today, I'd jump all over it.

Good luck everybody.

Silkydiamonds · Dec 28, 2013

:thumbsup2: Lets get it!!

scdoggy · Dec 28, 2013

Buttgers +14.5 -110 1.5 units

I don't think ND is 14 points better than any division one team, I mean, they beat Purdue and Navy by 7 and a FG... Was gonna puss out on this and just play TT, but Rutgers hangs around and covers. 27-20

scdoggy · Dec 28, 2013

Thanks Silk. Good luck today (after the first game)

Schrute · Dec 28, 2013

Twerk it Doggy

scdoggy · Dec 28, 2013

Decided to go the other way. Too much value on Mia

Mia +185 one unit
first half over 30 -110 1.5 units

twinkie13 · Dec 28, 2013

good to see

scdoggy · Dec 28, 2013

Biggest play so far this bowl season.

Kansas St -7 -110 four units

wiseplayer · Dec 28, 2013

You and bloodhound on K St and Tee Dub on Mich. How is it that you guys are seeing this so differently?

scdoggy · Dec 28, 2013

This line begs for Mich money if you ask me. GL if you play it.

P-Unit · Dec 28, 2013

GL to us.

SIGO · Dec 28, 2013

GL doggy

emkee · Dec 28, 2013

:shake:

Yanks27Sox9 · Dec 29, 2013

good stuff, bud. was on kst as well. :shake:
unfortunately, we both made the mistake of miami too.

B.A.R. · Dec 29, 2013

:cheers:

RetroVK · Dec 29, 2013

good call on ksu

KowboyKarl · Dec 29, 2013

Dogggyyyyyyy! Nice hit, hermano!

scdoggy · Dec 29, 2013

Bar, CC, Karl - thanks guys. Really needed K St to save an otherwise awful day. Thankfully I've hit the plays I like the most this bowl season or I'd be looking at an awful number. Guess I should be playing fewer games...

Bowls YTD  7-12 +.685 unit

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scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

Initially leaned MTSU on this game but after spending serious time on this one, the Academy is the play. Navy with a huge advantage on red zone offense getting TD's in 40 of 55 trips to the red zone. MTSU has gotten 31 in 50 trips, roughly a 10% difference. Also a big advantage for Navy in their ability to punt, as we get one of the better teams in net punting vs. one of the worst. Over the course of the game these two mismatches should be enough for the Mids to get the cash. I don't see any area where the Raiders have any kind of advantage over Navy.

Mix of juice that nets out to -109 Navy -7 for 2.75 units

KowboyKarl · Dec 30, 2013

Damm...oppo on this one. Health bro.

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

Anti Old Piss play. Just don't think they are any good at all.

GT first half +110 one unit

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

OlePiss/GT second half over 27 -110 1.5 units

scdoggy · Dec 30, 2013

Oregon Ducks -14 -120 five units

I've heard a lot of "the Horns want Mack Brown to go out on a high note" shit surrounding this game. Fact is, the fans might want that but I don't think the kids give a shit about the Coach everyone's been pissing and moaning about down there for years. You can guess about Oregon's motivation all you want, but the stats tell me they should beat Texas by three scores, and that's being generous. I'll load up on a max play here.

Coverdatspred · Dec 30, 2013

On the ducks as well. Mack this and Mack that. What about the fact that Aliotti is retiring after this one? One can argue that he means more to the ducks program than Mack does to the horns program. I don't believe the hype, Oregon will come to play today.

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