3 Star Selection
***LSU (-16.5) 35 South Carolina 9
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
LSU has been unbelievably good on defense through their first 3 games, allowing only 129 yards per game at 2.3 yards per play with no team gaining more than 149 yards or averaging higher than 2.6 yppl. South Carolina will be the best offensive team that the Tigers have faced, but the Gamecocks haven’t shown the explosive pass attack that was evident last season, as perhaps the loss of 2nd round NFL draft pick Sidney Rice has hurt more than expected. Quarterback Blake Mitchell was great at the end of last season and averaged 8.3 yards per pass play for the season but Mitchell has averaged only 5.2 yppp in two games this season (he was suspended for the opener), including only 4.9 yppp against a solid Georgia defense. Being shut down by Georgia does not bode well for Mitchell today against an even better LSU defense and the Gamecocks’ good rushing attack (5.7 yards per rushing play) doesn’t figure to produce even mediocre numbers against a Tigers’ defensive front that’s allowed just 2.7 yprp against 3 decent running teams. South Carolina should have better success offensively than the other 3 teams that have faced LSU, but I still don’t expect them to score more than 10 points. South Carolina has played pretty well defensively thanks to a very good secondary, but the Gamecocks have suffered some attrition along the defensive line and are allowing 5.1 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average only 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. LSU may be slowed down through the air, but the Tigers may not need to throw given that they have averaged 246 yards at 6.1 yprp and should dominate South Carolina’s defensive line. In addition to the favorable fundamentals the Tigers apply to a 46-8 ATS subset of a 117-58-4 ATS home momentum situation as well as a 58-19-1 ATS momentum situation. South Carolina is 9-1 ATS on the road under coach Steve Spurrier, but that’s the only thing keeping this from being a 4-Star Best Bet. I’ll take LSU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -19 points.
3 Star Selection
***Arizona 29 CALIFORNIA (-15.5) 34
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
As much as I love my Bears they appear overrated to me. Cal has a great offense that can beat you by land (7.4 yards per rushing play) and by air (Longshore has averaged 7.4 yards per pass play in his career against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback), but the Bears have been just mediocre defensively this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) and Arizona is capable of slowing down the Cal attack. The Wildcats were 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively last season and they’re 0.5 yppl better than average this season. Arizona’s offense was the problem last season, as talented quarterback Willie Tuitama was sacked too many times and had problems with concussions that kept him out of the lineup often. Coach Mike Stoops brought in Sonny Dykes to install the Texas Tech spread passing offense, which is based on 3 step drops and quick release times, which will keep Tuitama upright more this season (just 3 sacks on 136 pass plays this season) and allow him to use his considerable skills. The results have been pretty good so far (6.1 yards per play when Tuitama is in the game, against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense) and Arizona should move the ball well against the Bears. Cal’s star WR DeSean Jackson has a badly sprained thumb that has caused him to drop some balls and the Bears have 3 key defensive players all listed as questionable this week. There is good depth on Cal’s defense, but Jackson’s problems have hurt the pass attack and Longshore has averaged just 6.5 yppp in the first 3 games while overthrowing a lot of receivers. I used Longshore’s career stats (which are much better) in my model and my ratings favor Cal by only 11 ½ points and my preseason ratings would have favored the Bears by only 10 points. There is some line value favoring Arizona because of last week’s upset loss to New Mexico, but that was a bit of a fluke given that the Wildcats out-gained New Mexico 6.7 yppl to 5.4 yppl in that game. The loss also sets up the Wildcats in a very strong 43-11 ATS subset of an 80- 38 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation. I know Cal has revenge for losing in Tucson last season, but that situation is 17-2 ATS if the opposing team has revenge and Cal is just 6-6 ATS in conference revenge games under Jeff Tedford. Besides, big underdogs usually play better if they won the previous year’s match-up since they come into the game with confidence. The Bears are now just 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 11 points or more while Arizona is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 as an underdog of 7 points or more. I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and I’ll make the Wildcats a 4-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more (2-Stars from +12 to +13 ½).
2 Star Selection
**NAVY (-11.5) 41 Duke 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Duke broke their 22 game losing streak last week, but that will only serve to put the Midshipmen on alert this week, just in case last week’s loss to Ball State wasn’t enough to have them motivated. Navy is 9-4-1 ATS in games after a loss since coach Paul Johnson’s second season (2003), including 7-1 ATS against losing teams, so the Middies have a habit of taking out their frustrations on bad teams. Navy is actually 20-5 ATS in all games against losing teams the last few years while Duke is just 1-5 ATS after a victory and only 4-13 ATS under coach Roof when not an underdog of more than 14 points, including 0-9 ATS in non-conference games. Duke also applies to a negative 17-41 ATS game 4 situation that plays against teams coming off their first win of the season. Navy’s option attack has averaged 438 yards at 6.5 yards per play and that unit should have no trouble running against a Duke defense that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team). Navy’s defense has been a trouble spot with just 2 of last year’s starters currently playing, but Duke’s porous attack (just 3.9 yards per play) is not likely to take full advantage of a Middies’ defense that’s allowed 6.8 yppl so far this season. Duke will score some points, but Navy is likely to score almost every time that they get the ball and my ratings favor the Midshipmen by 17 ½ points while using this year’s games only would result in Navy by 20 ½ points. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 3-Stars at -11 or less.
Strong Opinion
North Carolina 21 S. FLORIDA (-13.5) 29
09:00 AM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
North Carolina has had two tough luck losses in a row, losing on a last minute field goal at East Carolina two weeks ago and then losing 20-22 at home to Virginia last week thank to a -3 in turnover margin. North Carolina out-gained East Carolina 6.8 yards per play to 6.4 yppl and they dominated Virginia 6.5 yppl to 4.7 yppl, but being on the losing end of both of those games has the Tarheels underrated. South Florida is a very strong defensive team again this season, but UNC quarterback T.J. Yates has averaged 10.2 yards per pass attempt and 9.5 yards per pass play in his first 3 games. South Florida’s offense has struggled a bit in their first two games (4.7 yppl), but they were a good unit last season and return nearly intact so I expect the Bulls’ attack to move the ball pretty well against a sub-par Tarheels’ defense. Overall my ratings only favor South Florida by 8 points and I expect the Tarheels to keep this game competitive. I’ll consider North Carolina a Strong Opinion at +13 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Miami Ohio 19 COLORADO (-14.0) 28
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Miami-Ohio let me down last week, but it’s tough to stay close when you’re -4 in turnover margin and losing by 37 points at home to Cincinnati has created some line value this week. Miami-Ohio really isn’t that bad of a team, as the Redhawks have averaged 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.7 yppl to teams that rate about average as a group. Miami upset Ball State on the road and then nearly upset Minnesota before losing in overtime, so staying close to a sub-par Colorado contingent isn’t too much to ask. The Buffaloes are still having troubles offensively and they’ve been out-gained this season 4.1 yppl to 4.7 yppl by teams that would out-gain an average team by 0.3 yppl – so Colorado has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, which is about the same as Miami-Ohio. Miami has lost their top two running backs and an offensive linemen, so their rushing attack isn’t likely to be as good as it has been, but my ratings favor Colorado by only 9 ½ points after adjusting for those losses. I’ll consider Miami- Ohio a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more and I’d take Miami in a 2-Star Best Bet if the line gets up to +16 points or more.
Strong Opinion
HOUSTON (-6.5) 37 Colorado St. 25
01:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Houston has one of the nation’s most explosive weapons in running back Anthony Alridge, who ran for 959 yards at 10.1 ypr last season and has accounted for 429 total yards from scrimmage in just 2 games this season (7.3 ypr and 27.4 ypc on 5 catches). Colorado State has allowed 7.3 yards per rushing play in their two games, so Alridge should have another big game today. Colorado State likes to pound the ball with bowling ball Kyle Bell, but Bell has only averaged 3.6 ypr on his 66 carries this season. The Rams are much more effective when quarterback Caleb Hanie is throwing the football and he’s averaged an impressive 7.4 yards per pass play on 72% completions so far this season. Houston has defended the pass well so far and their overall defensive average of 5.8 yards per play allowed is good considering that one of their two opponents (Oregon) has the best offense in the nation. My ratings favor Houston by 7 ½ points and using this year’s games only would favor the Cougars by 9 points. Colorado State applies to a negative 18-60-1 ATS situation but the Rams are also 11-6 ATS in games following their bye week under coach Sonny Lubick, which will keep me from playing Houston as a Best Bet. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
ARKANSAS (-7.0) 38 Kentucky 26
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Arkansas is coming off a tough loss at Alabama, but the Razorbacks should bounce back this week against a Kentucky team that is due for a letdown after upsetting rival Louisville last Saturday. Kentucky still doesn’t defend the run well (5.4 yards per rushing play allowed this year) and Arkansas has two of the nation’s best running back sin Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, who should both post very good numbers in this game. Kentucky has a good offense led by mistake free quarterback Andre Woodson, who is on the verge of setting the all time record for consecutive passes without an interceptions (he needs 14 more), but Arkansas has a solid defensive team and my ratings favor the Hogs by 10 ½ points in this game. I’ll consider Arkansas a Strong Opinion in this game at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
BUFFALO 30 Baylor (-3.5) 28
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Buffalo looks like a much improved team in coach Turner Gill’s second season. Junior quarterback Drew Willy has an accurate arm (72% completions) and should be able to pick apart a yielding Baylor secondary that’s allowed 5.9 yards per pass play to teams that collectively would average 4.8 yppp against an average defense. Buffalo is even worse defending the pass (7.7 yppp against teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team), but Baylor rates below average throwing the ball after adjusting for level of opposing defenses. Both teams should be able to move the ball in this game and my ratings favor Buffalo to get the straight up win. I’ll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
Strong Opinion
UL LAFAYETTE 31 Troy State (-10.0) 36
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Troy State is coming off a big upset win over Oklahoma State, but that win sets up the Trojans in a negative 46-93 ATS road favorite letdown situation today against a Lafayette team that will control the ball on the ground. Teams that can run well are usually good bets as home underdogs and Lafayette, averaging 240 yards at 5.3 yards per rushing play should have no trouble running the ball against a Troy defense that’s surrendered an average of 294 yards at 6.8 yprp (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yprp against an average defensive team). Lafayette won’t be able to stop the passing of Troy’s Omar Haugabook, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are getting double-
s and road favorites of 10 points or more that are bad defending the run usually don’t cover. My ratings favor Troy by 9 ½ points with RB Tyrell Fenroy out for Lafayette (backup Wallace has averaged 5.2 ypr in his career) and I’ll consider Louisiana Lafayette a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
CINCINNATI (-23.5) 44 Marshall 14
04:30 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Marshall hit a new low last week in losing to New Hampshire while Cincinnati continued to force turnovers in their 47-10 win over Miami-Ohio. The Bearcats have now forced 17 turnovers in 3 games and are +13 in turnover margin, which has a lot to do with their 47- 5 average score in those games. Cincy is not going to continue to be so fortunate, but the Bearcats are still a good team that I rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively. Those numbers are certainly good enough to dominate a Marshall team that is good offensively with quarterback Bernie Morris on the field (+0.6 yppl with Morris) but horrible on defense. The Thundering Herd have allowed 6.2 yards per rushing play and 6.7 yards per pass play this season and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average overall on the stop side of the ball. My ratings actually only favor Cincy by 20 ½ points in this game, but the Bearcats apply to a 58-19-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation and a 68-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Marshall applies to a negative 18-60-1 ATS situation. The Herd are also just 1-10 ATS on the road when not getting at least 28 points under coach Snyder and quarterback Morris is listed as questionable with an injured toe that kept him from starting last week’s game. Morris came into the contest late in the first half and had a very good game in their loss to New Hampshire and that is an indication that he’ll start this game. However, I can also see an early exit for Morris once Cincinnati takes a decent sized lead in the second half and Marshall’s backup quarterback Anderson has been horrible so far with just 3.0 yards per pass play on 26 pass plays. The situations and indicators favoring Cincinnati would give them a 64% chance of covering at a fair line of -20 ½ points, which means that they still have a profitable 57% chance of covering at -23 points, which is what I’ll make the cutoff on this game. I’ll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less and I’d take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -23 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Iowa 20 WISCONSIN (-7.5) 23
05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Sep-07
Neither of these teams is playing as well as expected, as Iowa is struggling on offense while Wisconsin is struggling defensively. The Hawkeyes have averaged just 4.9 yards per play in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team but Iowa still has an outstanding defense that’s yielded just 3.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense should keep them competitive in this game against a Badgers’ squad that has been pretty good offensively (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) but has surrendered 5.2 yppl to teams that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average team. Wisconsin looked good in their opening day win over Washington State, but they barely beat UNLV and then allowed The Citadel to keep last week’s game close until late in the 4th quarter. My ratings favor Wisconsin by 7 ½ points, but Iowa is a solid play based on a 59-17-2 ATS statistical indicator that is based on their strong defense. The Hawkeyes also apply to a 54-24-1 ATS game 4 situation. I’ll consider Iowa a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.
