Division 1 AA Finals - UMass/App. State


CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
UMass and App. State meet in the Div 1 AA final in Chatanooga on Friday night. This matchup truly represents the two best teams in this Division in my opinion. I am actually headed down to Nashville tomorrow evening and then over to Chatanooga on Friday to see the game. One of my best friends son's is a starting LB for UMass and I've known him since he was born and watched him though his high school and college careers. He was part of 3 state championship teams in a row in MD and never lost a game in high school. He was originally recruited by Vanderbilt and had one red shirt season there before transferring. Bobby Johnson wanted him to play FB, but Brad is a LB at heart and wanted to play where he had an opportunity at that position so he decided on UMass. It turned out to be a great decision as he has enjoyed a lot of success at UMass and could reach the pinnacle with a win and a National Championship on Friday night. Anyway, now that you know I am biased lol...I'll give you my thoughts on the game.

UMass has an excellent defense all around and do a particularly good job of mixing up their blitz packages and are likely to send pressure from a variety of different directions. They racked up 37 sacks on the year and were led by D. Burris with 8.5. They do a great job stopping the run (3.2 ypr) and only allow 101 ypg on the ground. Mass has excellent CB's and LB's which is crucial to stopping the potent App. State rushing game.

Mass can afford to go man up on the outside and devote their safeties and interior LB's to stopping the run and that will be the key as App. State RB Kevin Richardson is a breakaway threat at RB and the QB Armanti Edwards (freshman) is an extremely fast and elusive runner who runs a lot of single back option plays and is a threat to break one if he gets on the edge. App. State does not have nearly a refined passing game as UMass and UMass must stop the run first and force Edwards to throw. App. State OL has done a great job in run blocking but have given up 36 sacks which is a concern if they are forced to go to the air more than they plan on.

UMass is extremely well balanced on offense and have a potential NFL back in Steve Baylark who is a very strong and can get yardage inside and is also a threat to break one with his speed if he gets outside. Baylark is also a fine receiver out of the backfield. UMass QB Coen throws the ball extremely well but has made a couple of big mistakes recently (late throws over the middle) that have been very costly. Mass found themselves down 17-14 at half after dominating the 1H vs. Montana only to give up a TD on a pick by Coen and then another right before half while playing a soft dime defense at the end of the half only rushing three and getting dinked down the field underneath. Mass adjusted well in the second half and went back to their trademark pressure with an array of blitzes and forced the Montana QB into numerous poor throws and the Grizzlies were shut down completely. Coen is very capable of making big plays in the passing game and Mass has good receivers in London, Moore and Rancher who can stretch the field. Mass does a nice job of moving the pocket and running some mis-direction bootlegs with Coen and have protected him very well all year (15 sacks allowed).

This Mass team is very well coached by Don Brown and always seem to adjust well defensively at halftime to correct any problems. They shut down Montana completely in the second half and the week before did pretty much the same to a potent New Hamp. offense. This will be the best defense that App. State will face this year and I think that although they are an excellent rushing team that they are really kind of one dimensional on offense. I expect Mass to be ready for their sprint options and I think they are physical enough up front to disrupt this rushing attack. Mass will make Edwards beat them through the air. On the other side of the ball, I really think that Mass has fine balance overall and will be able to establish things on the ground early, that will set up some good things in the passing game. Turnovers could play a huge part here and App. State has been a little more turnover prone than UMass this season. I think we see a great game here and I am going to predict a UMass SU win here 24 -21.

Mass +4 2 units
Mass ML +150 1 unit
i think i'll be following you, tim. very convincing write up.
but i also watched umass beat montana the other week. wasn't overly impressed, yet they could've also easily won by more. very good defense, for sure.
Thanks for posting your thoughts, Tim. I was leaning to Mass, so this was all I needed to pull the trigger.

GL, and enjoy the game bud. :shake:
Tim nice writeup, I watched the UMass/Montana game and was very impressed with their defense. I'll be following you on this game.
Let's get it fellas....headed to Nashville now, hope its a winner for us.
Seems a bit TOO biased in my opinion.. App is going for its second straight National Title, they know what its like to be here, they know how it feels to win it. I predict a very Clear victory by App
Cash - Trust me...Tim knows his 1AA Football. He may be a tad biased here, but I doubt he'd throw money on a game unless he was very confident.

I've never seen him make a 'homerish' play on Maryland, even though he loves the Terps, so...take it for what it's worth.

I'm on Appy State here. I feel like Montana was overrated, and UMass showed that...Appy State isn't incredible either, but I just think they are the more complete team, and at only 3 points, its not a tremendous amount to lay. We'll see though...betting this one small because I'm going about my boys (sorta-I don't really follow UMass football, but I do want them to win)...
I am not to knowledgable about 1AA football, but I did watch both semi-final games and I have to say that this is an awfully short number considering last weeks outcomes. App St -3. They absolutely dominated YSU, while UMass barely got by Montana. This line should be 6 or 7.

Initially, I said to myself App. St is going to smoke UMass. Yet, the pessimist in me said that line is short for a reasom, and the reason is defense. The one thing that App. St. does well is run and Umass' strength is run D. I think this will be the difference in the game. If Umass can slow down App. St. running game it will keep them in the game. That coupled with Umass' run attack should shorten the game and make a field goal type game very viable.

I'm taking Umass +3 waiting to pick up the hook.

Ohh im sure he does know his stuff.. and i Praise him for that.. But come back in here after the game.. and tell me if i was wrong :)

App State -160 (2 units)
I Hope I wasent the only one who picked App State...... :) I want everyone to win...

Aztec.. once again I respect his theory's and observations.. But I Like my opinion aswell :)

CONGRATS SEaBass I just noticed you were with me on APP
sorry all didnt have time to post b4 game wouldnt have mattered anyways but awoooooooooooo im on a roll right now<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR class=trline><TD colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD>1) BET ID=19140</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD>Parlay (2 Teams)</TD><TD>12/15/06 12:51 ET</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD>50.00/136.36 (paid 186.36)</TD><TD>Result: Wager Won</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD>Massachusetts 17
AppalachianSt 28</TD><TD vAlign=top>12/15/06 (20:15 ET)
AppalachianSt -3.5 (-105)</TD></TR><TR class=odd><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></SPAN><TR class=odd><TD>Massachusetts 17
AppalachianSt 28</TD><TD vAlign=top>12/15/06 (20:15 ET)
Under 46.5</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>was gonna drop more on it but have to much pending in later bowl games but i have hit in college last 6 weeks unreal gl all good holiday seasons to all awoooooooooooooooooo
ypu yup yup <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR class=even><TD>16) BET ID=190</TD><TD></TD></TR><TR class=even><TD>Parlay (2 Teams)</TD><TD>12/09/06 10:29 ET</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD>50.00/130.00 (paid 180.00)</TD><TD>Result: Wager Won</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD>YoungstownSt 24
AppalachianSt 49</TD><TD vAlign=top>12/09/06 (16:25 ET)
AppalachianSt -7</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></SPAN><TR class=even><TD>YoungstownSt 24
AppalachianSt 49</TD><TD vAlign=top>12/09/06 (16:25 ET)
Over 50</TD></TR><TR class=even><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
hey by the way what ya think of wifes halloween costume ???omg i got to stop posting so i dont see her i get sooooooooooo lmfao friday night and buzzed
sorry for all the posts but forgot tim helluva a capper keep it up and im serious i lurk and read your posts all the time i read and learn from you cant say that about alot of cappers here though they are good in this site the best hey gl on rest of your cards and keep posting
Congrats to the App. St backers, they played a fine game and their defense stepped up when they had to. I thought it was a great game but in the 2nd Half, App. St. made the big plays when they had to. I didn't think they would be able to run on Mass like they did but Richardson and Edwards were fabulous. The two best teams in 1A got to decide it on the field, that's all you can ask.
After this weekend I'm sticking to I-A Football. Took Whitewater yesterday in a stupid homer bet. Nice job to all who won $$$. Everyone else let get are money back in bowl games.