Discussion - Thursday Night NFL (Chargers vs Broncos)

Fondybadger

CTG Partner
What are you going to be on for Thursday night's game this week and why?

[TABLE="class: data, width: 100%"]
<tbody>[TR="class: time"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]8:25 PM EDT
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team odd"]
[TD="class: name"]103 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]51u11 / 51 / 51.5o13[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]+325[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"][/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: team even"]
[TD="class: name"]104 DENVER BRONCOS[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-7.5 +06[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-7.5 / -7.5 -15 / -8[/TD]
[TD="class: currentline"]-8.5[/TD]
[TD="class: line"]-400[/TD]
[TD="class: halftime"][/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: note"]
[TD="colspan: 7"]TV: CBS | PARTLY CLOUDY, SOUTHEAST WIND 4-9. GAME TEMP 70, RH 27% WIND CHILL 0
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Team Totals:
Chargers 22
Broncos 30
 
With Brandon Flowers likely out from his concussion last Sunday and Jason Verrett expected to be out again, I'm afraid SD secondary will not be able to stop Denver. Likely will put in a Denver team total over 30 shortly as I expect it to rise tomorrow.
 
Chargers cant run the ball. Lopsided win for Broncos
 
Chargers cant run the ball. Lopsided win for Broncos

Yea these team teams aren't the same as last year when SD upset DEN. SD running game isn't the same as last year, and DEN rush D is much improved. Some concern of a DEN letdown, but I don't think so because of last year's game. Manning gets revenge tonight.

I'm on Denver in a teaser already -1.5. I think it's still good now at -2.5
 
Preparing for Peyton Manning is hard enough anytime, let alone a short week. I think Sd has trouble all night, and won't be able to keep up with the Broncos.

Key inactives for SD
Brandon Flowers CB
Jason Verrett CB
Manti Te'o ILB
Jeremiah Attaoche OLB

Leaving Richard Marshall and Shareece I suck Wright as the Cb's. Not sure how I feel about the total, head tells me it should easily go over, but something tells me SD will want to establish the run, and maintain possession. However PT and especially Thursdays have been sailing over.

Denver
 
Preparing for Peyton Manning is hard enough anytime, let alone a short week. I think Sd has trouble all night, and won't be able to keep up with the Broncos.


Leaving Richard Marshall and Shareece I suck Wright as the Cb's. Not sure how I feel about the total, head tells me it should easily go over, but something tells me SD will want to establish the run, and maintain possession. However PT and especially Thursdays have been sailing over.

Denver

Thats the same CB duo that started in last years win over Denver.
 
Sucks to be holding Bolts +7.5 but as Rex says it flew in my fucking face....fuck em! Went back for some more Bolts +10 and a little tease action +17.

If not for SD secondary a little beat up this might be my favorite bet of the year. Phillis has all his targets and the kid Oliver is a player at RB. They will move the ball on this team and wont be intimidated by the atmosphere or 18 on the other sideline.
 
SD has avg 116 rushing yards per game over the last 3 - that puts them ahead of Denver in that category.

They only average 83.7 yards on the road which is pretty bad. Denver is giving up only 71 rushing ypg at home.
 
NFL: What will be the GAME RESULT?
[TABLE="class: mg-gametableQ, width: 0"]
<tbody style="border: 0px none; margin: 0px; outline: none 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR]
[TD="class: mg-column1 start, align: center"]8:25 PM
CBS

[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column2 sport, align: center"]
icon_football.gif

NFL
[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents"] Chargers: Win or Single Digit Loss[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column4 result, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column5 status, align: center"]Not Started
[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]61.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column7 heat, align: center"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column8 pick borderRight, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: mg-column3 opponents last"] @ Broncos: Win By Double Digits[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column4 result last, align: center"]--[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column6 wpw, align: center"]38.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: mg-column8 pick borderRight last, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Share


Tweet


Discuss (56)


 
Lang preaching...

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/QOca6lftcS4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Sucks to be holding Bolts +7.5 but as Rex says it flew in my fucking face....fuck em! Went back for some more Bolts +10 and a little tease action +17.

If not for SD secondary a little beat up this might be my favorite bet of the year. Phillis has all his targets and the kid Oliver is a player at RB. They will move the ball on this team and wont be intimidated by the atmosphere or 18 on the other sideline.

im in same spot, didnt imagine it going up like this.. i dont care if den beats them by more than a td so be it.. ill take this number in almost any divisional matchup , it just a bonus i actually get a good team that matches up well..
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody" style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"] NFL - 10/23/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/23

8:25 PM


103 SD-P Rivers
104 DEN-P Manning

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]51%
49%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]41%
59%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]77%
23%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51
-9
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51
-10.5+110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51u-108
-9.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51u-115
-9
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 52o-115
-9+100
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
So just a question.

When the line came opened at 7 and then went up to 7.5. I assume alot of "sharps" took Chargers at that number(7.5). Now at 9.5/10 and even 10.5...what do you think of these "sharps". Do you consider these guys "sharps" then if they got such a bad number?
 
Some PT stats -

General
- Overs are now 18-4 on the season, but for games featuring an AFC team @home the rate is even higher: 9-1.

- Games featuring AFC teams @home have involved more close contests: 5 (50%) have been decided by margins of 7 pts or less, compared to only 1 (8.3%) when an NFC team has been @home.

- Over the last 9 games, 2nd halves have gone 5-4 to Under vs. 7-1-1 to Over for 1st halves & 7-2 to Over for FG.

- In the 22 PT games to date, the dog has opened the scoring w/a FG only once vs. a TD 6 times.

TNF
- No 1st scoring team has lost SU in this time slot (6-1 ATS).

- No team leading @half-time has lost SU (6-1 ATS).

- TNF's 4th quarter is the lowest scoring (12.42 pts) of any of the PT slots (SNF 15.1 pts/MNF 14.25 pts). Only 1 game has featured a 15+ pts 4th, compared to a combined 9 of 15 SNF & MNF 4th quarters.

- The Fav is 5-2 ATS on TNF, compared to a combined 6-8 ATS for SNF & MNF.
 
Last edited:
OK, cool. And since 9 is a dead number in the NFL then there's really nothing to see unless we see some +10 -110. I'm rolling with SD SU and ATS. San Diego as the underdog has cashed like a motherfucker the last two seasons.
 
San Diego totals this year so far
Over-under-over-under-over-under......


Sd only team left that does not have consecutive overs or unders
 
Yeah I don't read much into any moves between 7.5 and 9.5, seems you could only get 10 if you purchased it at most places. Can't confirm that everywhere but I haven't seen one that had it at 10 flat.
 
Was this really 10.5 -110, or was it 10.5 -130? Because those are not the same lines. 5dimes shades their lines to protect against teasers. The most I have seen there has been 9.5.

[TABLE="class: layout"]
<tbody style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; background: transparent;">[TR]
[TD]5Dimes
[TABLE="class: tableStatic, width: 850"]
<thead style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; background: transparent;">[TR]
[TD="align: center"]Time[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Game[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Visitor Line[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home Line[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Visitor %[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Home %[/TD]
[/TR]
</thead><tbody style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; background: transparent;">[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 4:06:57 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.5-130 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -10.5+110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 51% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 49% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 3:19:43 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.0-130 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -10.0+110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 50% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 50% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 11:52:06 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.5-130 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -10.5+110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 47% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 53% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 11:51:50 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.5-135 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -10.5+115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 47% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 53% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 10:25:54 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.0-125 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -10.0+105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 45% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 55% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 8:52:44 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 10.0-130 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -10.0+110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 44% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 56% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/23/2014 1:28:59 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 9.5-125 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -9.5+105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 41% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 59% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/22/2014 7:25:47 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 9.5-120 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -9.5+100 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 41% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 59% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/22/2014 12:09:43 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 9.5-125 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -9.5+105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 37% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 63% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/21/2014 12:46:20 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 9.0-130 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -9.0+110 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 33% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 67% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/21/2014 12:45:48 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 8.5-125 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -8.5+105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 33% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 67% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/21/2014 12:45:32 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.5-115 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.5-105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 32% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 68% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/21/2014 12:04:19 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.5-120 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.5+100 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 38% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 62% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/20/2014 8:00:38 PM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.5-125 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.5+105 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 36% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 64% [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10/20/2014 4:39:28 AM
[/TD]
[TD] San Diego Chargers - P Rivers @ Denver Broncos - P Manning
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 7.5-120 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -7.5+100 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 100% [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] 0%

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Some PT stats -

TNF
- No 1st scoring team has lost SU or failed to cover the spread in this time slot.

- No team leading @half-time has lost SU or ATS (FG, not 2nd h).

- TNF's 4th quarter is the lowest scoring (12.42 pts) of any of the PT slots (SNF 15.1 pts/MNF 14.25 pts). Only 1 game has featured a 15+ pts 4th, compared to a combined 9 of 15 SNF & MNF 4th quarters.

- The Fav is 5-2 ATS on TNF, compared to a combined 6-8 ATS for SNF & MNF.

I'm not sure the 1st 2 stats here for TNF are accurate. NE scored first last week and didn't cover, and they led at HT and didnt cover.
 
OK, cool. And since 9 is a dead number in the NFL then there's really nothing to see unless we see some +10 -110. I'm rolling with SD SU and ATS. San Diego as the underdog has cashed like a motherfucker the last two seasons.

All good things generally come to an end. Giving a team 7+ that is something like 11-0 ATS at said venue could be classed as 'dangling carrots'.
 
Interesting, this is the sportsinsights info

[TABLE="class: rgMasterTable MasterTable"]
<tbody>[TR="class: rgRow"]
[TD="align: right"] 10/23

08:25 PM
[/TD]
[TD] 103 - San Diego Chargers

104 - Denver Broncos
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
2014-103-spct-u.gif
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +7.5 -117
-7.5 106 [/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +9 -106
-9 -104
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Bet Labs Software@Bet_Labs <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 1h1 hour ago</small>
When Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have faced each other, they have averaged 47.7 combined points and the Under is 6-3.
0 replies8 retweets2 favorites<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply js-tooltip" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" title="Reply" style="color: rgb(204, 214, 221); font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; top: 4px;"> Reply</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet js-tooltip" title="Retweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(204, 214, 221); font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; top: 4px;"> Retweet8</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite js-tooltip" type="button" data-original-title="Favorite" style="color: rgb(204, 214, 221); font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; top: 4px;"> Favorite2</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-tooltip js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" aria-haspopup="true" data-original-title="More" style="color: rgb(204, 214, 221); font-family: inherit; font-size: 16px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 1; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; top: 4px;"></button>


 
Played the under 51. If it goes 51.5 i'm gonna hit this again.

I have this game going to a max and I mean max of 50. Unless some crazy ass quick TDs (like Pitt/Houston) game happens, I think this is the best play on the board tonight.

Prediction

Denver 27
San Diego 23


Plus, I have 3 books and one book is always and I mean always .5 - 1 point different than the other two. Books A & B always have the same lines and C is always for dog playing because of lines. When book C is the same as books A&B and no movement from book C all day...its a good sign for me. Book C has sat on 51 all day, not one move yet!
 
i really like the under but every time ive even thought about a under in primetime this year it hasnt been good..
 
Played the under 51. If it goes 51.5 i'm gonna hit this again.

I have this game going to a max and I mean max of 50. Unless some crazy ass quick TDs (like Pitt/Houston) game happens, I think this is the best play on the board tonight.

Prediction

Denver 27
San Diego 23


Plus, I have 3 books and one book is always and I mean always .5 - 1 point different than the other two. Books A & B always have the same lines and C is always for dog playing because of lines. When book C is the same as books A&B and no movement from book C all day...its a good sign for me. Book C has sat on 51 all day, not one move yet!

blowdog hanging a 52.5, lol.. i made it almost exactly same as you. donks mid high 20s and sd low mid..
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody" style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NFL - 10/23/2014[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/23

8:25 PM


103 SD-P Rivers
104 DEN-P Manning

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]54%
46%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]45%
55%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]75%
25%
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51
-7
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51
-9
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 50.5
-10.5+110
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 50.5o-113
-9-106
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 51
-9-111
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"] 52.5u-105
-8.5
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Back
Top