Week 8 Discussion Thread
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CryptoWhale
Pretty much a regular
Like most here, circled Okie State, but line doesn't make sense to me either. Especially if there are no injuries at the QB. Line is tempting now and even more so if we get to +7.
not only that one team destroyed ou for ksu it took all 4 quarters.....market must be thinking tcu is a bit overrated and I tend to agree....this will be the best defense they've faced and that is saying something cause I think their is some holes in this k state defense too. Tough cap imo, kind of like the points tho
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Now +6 @ my shop.
All of you are more knowledgeable about metrics, schemes, match-ups etc than I am. But, whenever I see things like this that make no sense I think
(1) somebody has info I clearly do not posses
(2) unless I have insight that the 'experts' do not (I never do) - remind myself to avoid doing anything stupid
(3) look back on history - although it may not be worth a damn - and from what I recall beware of Texas in this situation.
(4) take the team, like Texas, or 99% of time do nothing
So, here is what I am doing...loading the boat on the Longhorns
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Already backin' up the Brinks?Now +6 @ my shop.
All of you are more knowledgeable about metrics, schemes, match-ups etc than I am. But, whenever I see things like this that make no sense I think
(1) somebody has info I clearly do not posses
(2) unless I have insight that the 'experts' do not (I never do) - remind myself to avoid doing anything stupid
(3) look back on history - although it may not be worth a damn - and from what I recall beware of Texas in this situation.
(4) take the team, like Texas, or 99% of time do nothing
So, here is what I am doing...loading the boat on the Longhorns
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Ok St is gonna be this week's Vols as far as betting
lines tightened up this week here are some early thoughts
laying with georgia tech - the market still thinks this team sucks ? they've only had 1 bad game and that was ole miss they've really fought every game and with the new coach beat the dukies who dominated virginia........g tech pass defense is for real, primetime game and virginia a disaster
speaking of georgia tech they dominated their ucf boxscore - which lends me to think this knight team has been overrated for a bit - nice defense but their o seems so one dimensional , the +4 for east carolina at home seems attractive..........also kind of like cincinnati against smu who is 1 dimensional as well
hawaii is turning things around a bit almost beat sdstu and beat nevada - well i don't think col state is as good as nevada - someone may know but i think hawaii got some experienced wide receivers back from last years team very recently
i could only look toward the fiu side at +17 against charlotte, charlotte is awful - fiu boxscores aren't looking so bad outside of that 70-0 loss to western kentucky.
wisconsin owns the purdue matchup winning like the last 10 + but i think purdue gets it done this year
AKRON + 18 or 19 ? ........i'm not sure what kent state has done to deserve this line......kent state the buildup for playing all these blue bloods hasn't meant anything in the mac -
i want to fade syracuse but not a big clemson favorite guy their d is not vintage clemson d - am very surprised syracuse won the line of scrimmage vs nc state last week
cal +7.5 vs washington - typical cal dog role , better defense here with points at home after a loss but this team is averaging like 1 yard a carry vs colorado and washington state
texas am -3 @ south carolina .......short line imo, jimbo wins these types of games and both teams aren't great but south carolina especially so
laying with georgia tech - the market still thinks this team sucks ? they've only had 1 bad game and that was ole miss they've really fought every game and with the new coach beat the dukies who dominated virginia........g tech pass defense is for real, primetime game and virginia a disaster
speaking of georgia tech they dominated their ucf boxscore - which lends me to think this knight team has been overrated for a bit - nice defense but their o seems so one dimensional , the +4 for east carolina at home seems attractive..........also kind of like cincinnati against smu who is 1 dimensional as well
hawaii is turning things around a bit almost beat sdstu and beat nevada - well i don't think col state is as good as nevada - someone may know but i think hawaii got some experienced wide receivers back from last years team very recently
i could only look toward the fiu side at +17 against charlotte, charlotte is awful - fiu boxscores aren't looking so bad outside of that 70-0 loss to western kentucky.
wisconsin owns the purdue matchup winning like the last 10 + but i think purdue gets it done this year
AKRON + 18 or 19 ? ........i'm not sure what kent state has done to deserve this line......kent state the buildup for playing all these blue bloods hasn't meant anything in the mac -
i want to fade syracuse but not a big clemson favorite guy their d is not vintage clemson d - am very surprised syracuse won the line of scrimmage vs nc state last week
cal +7.5 vs washington - typical cal dog role , better defense here with points at home after a loss but this team is averaging like 1 yard a carry vs colorado and washington state
texas am -3 @ south carolina .......short line imo, jimbo wins these types of games and both teams aren't great but south carolina especially so
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Confused on this one, CSU just won at Nevada a couple weeks ago.
Not like I'm chomping at the bit to jump on CSU but it would be them or nothing for me here, especially off the Hawaiian victory.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I have not looked at the lines this week yet, but wow, yeah Charlotte -17? Charlotte has a good QB and good WRs, I'll give them that. So there is potential they score some points and get some yards from that. I actually played a small ML on Charlotte vs UAB this weekend. I was pretty pleased with how Charlotte played, fairly inspired and they weren't blown off the ball or torched in their secondary like they have been in other games. That could be a one week thing. UAB didn't look sharp until later in the game, so maybe they weren't on their A game and it made Charlotte look better. I would rate Charlotte as better than FIU, think we all would, but man 17? Wow. The last game snapped a 9 game streak for Charlotte where they allowed 41+ pts!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well outside of Air Force betting on the MWC is unhealthy
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I have been on Akron the last two weeks, split ATS, but lost both MLs, 0-1-1 1H. Hated pushing their 1H last game (they missed a FG that would've cut it to 4 at HT instead of 7). The ML lost to Central Michigan was especially painful in how they lost. They are bad and bad things happen to bad teams. Akron has some O and Kent has no D. Zips had 400+ y vs BG and Ohio and avg a little over 30 in both those games. CMich D made it tougher on them, but they were in position to win that game late. Big problem for Akron is their D. Thought they played well enough vs a struggling Central Mich O this week. Akron D vs Kent is going to be a challenge. Kent is a jekyll-hyde type - the next 4 quarter game they play will be their first.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned is that a lot of SEC fans think Mason really sucks as a DC. Lots of “there he goes again” after the opener v. CMU.Now +6 @ my shop.
All of you are more knowledgeable about metrics, schemes, match-ups etc than I am. But, whenever I see things like this that make no sense I think
(1) somebody has info I clearly do not posses
(2) unless I have insight that the 'experts' do not (I never do) - remind myself to avoid doing anything stupid
(3) look back on history - although it may not be worth a damn - and from what I recall beware of Texas in this situation.
(4) take the team, like Texas, or 99% of time do nothing
So, here is what I am doing...loading the boat on the Longhorns
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Speaking of C Mich, see comment above.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Blake Shapen is still iffy for Baylor with a concussion. They're a different team with him on the field.
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i think that line opened csu 6 and has come down to 4. ......i'd say csu/nevada are even and hawaii just beat nevada.......I know I was saying nevada was better was thinking they dominated that boxscore...really wasn't as bad I thought, but recall thinking nevada should of won the col state game and lot of flukey stuff happened; backing hawaii is tough given new mex state owned them, high range of variability with just stupid things bad teams do. key to the game is colorado state run offense it's obviously Hawaii's biggest weakness........they allowed 300+ to new mex state then 2.7 and 2.9 carry to nevada and san diego state. go figure - if they do that again they win.
utah state was down to their 4th string qb - lost 2 qb's in first part of action of the game - kind of thinking they cover that easy without the 4th stringer - col state offense is truly offensive
the duke - miami fl game seeing everyone on miami and I am disagreeing with the move to 10 - assuming it's just the heartbreaker loss to a rival ? matchup wise aren't these the same teams ? feels like close to a pickem on a neutral to me .......total at 59 feels very high for these 2
ucla - oregon - would like to fade ucla but not sure if oregon is the team to do it
ucla - oregon - would like to fade ucla but not sure if oregon is the team to do it
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Went from Ducks -5.5 yesterday to -6 today
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Spencer IS injured.
Gundy hides player injuries instead of announcing them like other coaches. Sanders didn't practice all last week, then was shot up before the game. Injury was shoulder and arm on the same side. The shot wore off as the game progress and he lost his ability to throw anything beyond about 15 yards.
The fact he kept running and kept getting hit all game didn't help.
No way to know what shape he'll be in this week because Gundy won't reveal it
Wolfeman
Pretty much a regular
Mahalo for bringing Georgia Tech to my attention…the more I dig, the more I like it. GL Capo.
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
Whittingham does it too. Unless it's season ending he won't discuss it.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Dallas radio reporting that Sanders has a bad knee and a separated throwing shoulder. I'm not sure how he's playing with a separated shoulder, much less his throwing one.
Perhaps he's playing out of necessity given that his backup is Gunnar Gundy? Not a typo.
Perhaps he's playing out of necessity given that his backup is Gunnar Gundy? Not a typo.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Regarding Duke at Miami and the hangover for Duke and how do they respond. What makes anything like this difficult is we know and see all the time that teams do not play to the same level every week. There are let downs, there are look aheads, there are flat games.
I will offer the Stanford loss to Oregon State, which the guts of that loss happened at nearly 3am east coast so not many saw it live, but everyone knows how it happened. It would've been the time for them to throw in the towel, just play out the string, think about whatever future they have post Stanford or next year, etc. But no, off that most painful of painful losses, they come back and win in South Bend and beat Notre Dame. Notre Dame being a flawed favorite there. Just as Miami is a flawed favorite this week. It is impossible to be right before the game starts on the emotional guesswork of how the team responds. It is a bad spot for Duke no doubt, very very tough loss to get up from. So how does one take it? Will they go to Miami hanging there head thinking 'what if' from the UNC game? Maybe. Will they shake it off and put forth a similar effort (was arguably their best offensive game all year, no surprise who it came against). This is Miami we are talking about, paper tiger favorite who is 0-4 ATS as a favorite this year and actually 0-5 ATS in all FBS games. Thinking about laying points with them, maybe they are due for a big game, maybe Duke will be flat. Or maybe Duke plays hard as they have all year and maybe Miami continues to suck. I think I'll bet on Duke playing hard and Miami sucking.
I will offer the Stanford loss to Oregon State, which the guts of that loss happened at nearly 3am east coast so not many saw it live, but everyone knows how it happened. It would've been the time for them to throw in the towel, just play out the string, think about whatever future they have post Stanford or next year, etc. But no, off that most painful of painful losses, they come back and win in South Bend and beat Notre Dame. Notre Dame being a flawed favorite there. Just as Miami is a flawed favorite this week. It is impossible to be right before the game starts on the emotional guesswork of how the team responds. It is a bad spot for Duke no doubt, very very tough loss to get up from. So how does one take it? Will they go to Miami hanging there head thinking 'what if' from the UNC game? Maybe. Will they shake it off and put forth a similar effort (was arguably their best offensive game all year, no surprise who it came against). This is Miami we are talking about, paper tiger favorite who is 0-4 ATS as a favorite this year and actually 0-5 ATS in all FBS games. Thinking about laying points with them, maybe they are due for a big game, maybe Duke will be flat. Or maybe Duke plays hard as they have all year and maybe Miami continues to suck. I think I'll bet on Duke playing hard and Miami sucking.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Agree with some others on the ECU side. I haven't been big on this UCF bunch all year. They just look fairly average, not average in a AAC kind of way, but average for their recent standards. Started slow vs Temple. Temple led 3-0, 10-7, and trailed just 13-14 mid 2nd Q. That should not have happened. SMU led 13-10 HT and UCF looked bad in that 1H. Their final vs GT was misleading (they only scored 1 offensive TD and GT outgained them by 120 yards). Their best game was vs FAU, but there again, a slow start. FAU led 7-0 and 14-7.
What UCF does apparently have going for them is a great 2H team to offset their poor 1H performances.
I beware of ECU as a favorite, but home dog vs this team looks good. Also consider that ECU shoulda coulda woulda beat UCF in Orlando last year. They led late 4th Q, but in typical ECU fashion they crumbled late. Could happen again because it is ECU. They have a new kicker by the way. The kid that missed the game winners vs NC State and Navy is no longer the K. Guess that is a good thing for them. Conrad went 1-for-1 FGs and 4-for-4 xpts last week.
What UCF does apparently have going for them is a great 2H team to offset their poor 1H performances.
I beware of ECU as a favorite, but home dog vs this team looks good. Also consider that ECU shoulda coulda woulda beat UCF in Orlando last year. They led late 4th Q, but in typical ECU fashion they crumbled late. Could happen again because it is ECU. They have a new kicker by the way. The kid that missed the game winners vs NC State and Navy is no longer the K. Guess that is a good thing for them. Conrad went 1-for-1 FGs and 4-for-4 xpts last week.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Liberty as a dog, 2-0 ATS this year with one upset and one near upset.
+17 at WF lost 36-37
+6.5 vs UAB won 21-14
+8.5 at Ole Miss lost 14-27 (only outgained by 9 yards)
+2.5 at UAB won 36-12
+4 at NC State lost 14-15
+16.5 at Virginia Tech won 38-35
+14.5 at WKU won 30-24
+16.5 at Virginia lost 27-55
+17 at BYU lost 24-31
+5.5 vs Buffalo won 35-17
Pretty decent track record. Those most recent games makes 8-2 ATS. They did fail to cover Freeze's first two games ever as dogs in 2019, so for accuracy we'd say Freeze is a total of 8-4 ATS as a dog. 5 outright wins and several of the straight up losses are very very close.
+17 at WF lost 36-37
+6.5 vs UAB won 21-14
+8.5 at Ole Miss lost 14-27 (only outgained by 9 yards)
+2.5 at UAB won 36-12
+4 at NC State lost 14-15
+16.5 at Virginia Tech won 38-35
+14.5 at WKU won 30-24
+16.5 at Virginia lost 27-55
+17 at BYU lost 24-31
+5.5 vs Buffalo won 35-17
Pretty decent track record. Those most recent games makes 8-2 ATS. They did fail to cover Freeze's first two games ever as dogs in 2019, so for accuracy we'd say Freeze is a total of 8-4 ATS as a dog. 5 outright wins and several of the straight up losses are very very close.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Wow, Buffalo has been a spread covering machine! 5 straight and 6-1 ATS overall! Toledo covered 3 straight and 4-of-5 vs FBS G5 teams
Central Michigan has dropped 3 straight ATS and has yet to cover vs FBS G5 teams (SBama, Toledo, Ball, Akron). Bowling Green proved last week, when they don't beat themselves they can occasionally pull some upsets (MiaO and Marshall). Couple off good DLs here, CM has one of the better DEs in the MAC with Thomas Incoom t-9 nationally with 10 TFLs and BG's Karl Brooks t-13 nationally with 9 TFLs.
Western Michigan is just 1-5 ATS vs FBS (covered vs Ball St). When WM loses, it's not close. Lost by 19 to Ohio (as a 2pt fav), lost by 22 to EMich (as a 6 pt fav), lost by 28 to San Jose (as 7 pt dog), and then by 21 to Pitt (+11) and 22 to MSU (+21). Miami Ohio just lost their only FBS favorite spot last week at BG. Miami was upset all 3 times they were favored on the road last year, but were 2-1 ATS home favs vs MAC.
Ohio offense remains on fire. Rourke 315 ypg passing 14-3 ratio! 42.75 ppg avg their last 4 (Fordham, Kent, Akron, WM) and 521.5 ypg in those. Ohio D yielding 576.45 ypg however! NIU last 4 was tough fought game at Kentucky, the game they allowed Ball State a big comeback and lost in OT, the 4 INT with 2 pick-six loss vs Toledo and the nice 39-10 win at EM. This should be a good one.
Huge chalk on Kent State who is just 1-2 straight up in MAC play and 0-3 ATS! Akron tries and fails often, but are 2-1 ATS in league play. Kent won the Wagon Wheel 38-0 last year (first shut out since 1949)! 2020 69-35 (think Akron was actually in this game for 2+ quarters), 2019 26-3. Akron last won in 2018 24-23 in OT (Sean Lewis' first year at Kent). Zips LB Bubba Arslanian will be busy in this one (#4 tackler nationally with 11 tkl per gm).
EMU's Jose Ramirez t-1 nation with 7 sacks (t-6 with 10.5 TFLs)! Who knew? Ball State has been sacked the fewest times in the MAC. RB Carson Steele t-10th nation rushing ypg (112.7). Ball has a pretty good run going on a 3 game win streak (2-1 ATS) while EM comes stumbling in with just 1 cover in their last 4, that was their preferred dog spot tough. Small number here. When EM is dogged they've won 2 out of 3, when favored they are 2-2 straight up. Consistent with their history. Last year they vs MAC they were 3-2 straight up as dogs and 1-1 as favorites straight up (also lost a pick'em game).
Central Michigan has dropped 3 straight ATS and has yet to cover vs FBS G5 teams (SBama, Toledo, Ball, Akron). Bowling Green proved last week, when they don't beat themselves they can occasionally pull some upsets (MiaO and Marshall). Couple off good DLs here, CM has one of the better DEs in the MAC with Thomas Incoom t-9 nationally with 10 TFLs and BG's Karl Brooks t-13 nationally with 9 TFLs.
Western Michigan is just 1-5 ATS vs FBS (covered vs Ball St). When WM loses, it's not close. Lost by 19 to Ohio (as a 2pt fav), lost by 22 to EMich (as a 6 pt fav), lost by 28 to San Jose (as 7 pt dog), and then by 21 to Pitt (+11) and 22 to MSU (+21). Miami Ohio just lost their only FBS favorite spot last week at BG. Miami was upset all 3 times they were favored on the road last year, but were 2-1 ATS home favs vs MAC.
Ohio offense remains on fire. Rourke 315 ypg passing 14-3 ratio! 42.75 ppg avg their last 4 (Fordham, Kent, Akron, WM) and 521.5 ypg in those. Ohio D yielding 576.45 ypg however! NIU last 4 was tough fought game at Kentucky, the game they allowed Ball State a big comeback and lost in OT, the 4 INT with 2 pick-six loss vs Toledo and the nice 39-10 win at EM. This should be a good one.
Huge chalk on Kent State who is just 1-2 straight up in MAC play and 0-3 ATS! Akron tries and fails often, but are 2-1 ATS in league play. Kent won the Wagon Wheel 38-0 last year (first shut out since 1949)! 2020 69-35 (think Akron was actually in this game for 2+ quarters), 2019 26-3. Akron last won in 2018 24-23 in OT (Sean Lewis' first year at Kent). Zips LB Bubba Arslanian will be busy in this one (#4 tackler nationally with 11 tkl per gm).
EMU's Jose Ramirez t-1 nation with 7 sacks (t-6 with 10.5 TFLs)! Who knew? Ball State has been sacked the fewest times in the MAC. RB Carson Steele t-10th nation rushing ypg (112.7). Ball has a pretty good run going on a 3 game win streak (2-1 ATS) while EM comes stumbling in with just 1 cover in their last 4, that was their preferred dog spot tough. Small number here. When EM is dogged they've won 2 out of 3, when favored they are 2-2 straight up. Consistent with their history. Last year they vs MAC they were 3-2 straight up as dogs and 1-1 as favorites straight up (also lost a pick'em game).
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M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Typically, Duke tanks for four or five games after UNC, unless the season ends sooner.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Gundy's son. Great in high school at the 6-A level in Oklahoma. No one knows if he can play at the college level. I suspect he can. He's got the bloodlines. His dad and his uncle both started at the college level
But I expect Sanders to play, injured or not.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
This one interests me too. I've probably won more with K State than any other team over the last few years. I know I'll get top effort from them. But I've won a lot on Dykes too. His teams rarely fail to put up big numbers. I'll be watching the number on this one
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Some important injuries this week. I only checked teams I had in interest in so this is not meant as a complete list:
Shapen, Baylor QB questionable head injury. Taye McWilliams #1 RB out the last four, ankle, questionable again. Craig Williams RB, #2 rusher questionable, head
Cincinnati starting QB Bryant questionable, undisclosed injury. Another dozen or so players questionable or out, but I don’t know which ones are starters
Louisville QB Cunningham still listed as questionable, concussion symptoms
Maryland QB Tua leg injury, left last game, questionable
Minnesota QB Morgan, concussion protocol, questionable
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson questionable, undisclosed
Shapen, Baylor QB questionable head injury. Taye McWilliams #1 RB out the last four, ankle, questionable again. Craig Williams RB, #2 rusher questionable, head
Cincinnati starting QB Bryant questionable, undisclosed injury. Another dozen or so players questionable or out, but I don’t know which ones are starters
Louisville QB Cunningham still listed as questionable, concussion symptoms
Maryland QB Tua leg injury, left last game, questionable
Minnesota QB Morgan, concussion protocol, questionable
Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson questionable, undisclosed
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Is the Texas Tech move from 4 to 7 based off announcement Donovan Smith is going to play? He is what he is, I don't mind him good and bad, but the backup is probably their multi-year future starter and looked the part 2 weeks ago when he got the start. I would not agree that TT is worth 3 more pts with Smith at QB. I get that they bump the TT-OkSt number based on that because Morton was an unknown and sight unseen, but now? No. If they open TT at 4 you can't move to 7 on the QB news - Morton is arguably better and now he's splitting snaps or playing less with Smith back and that somehow makes TT more valuable? Maybe Slough is going to play...is he better, I don't think so, they are all about the same, better here or there. Is there anything else I'm missing? I'd say WVU just got a more generous number for no good reason.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I agree. I don't see why Tech would start Smith ahead of Morton and I'm surprised the line moved so far so fast. Nothing against Smith who has had some good games, but Morton just looked like the better QB to me
I though maybe W Virginia had injury problems that prompted the move, but I don't see anyone important listed
Strange that Tech loses two straight by double digits and W Virginia plays their most impressive game of the year and yet the line immediately jumps to 7 when it's posted. I understand the move because I loved Tech at -4 too, but it seems unusual for the public to load up on Tech enough to move the line
felt that game was little high myself - wvu has had a rb and corner injured, think charles woods their top corner may be coming back which would be huge ......Neal Brown was a defensive minded coach at troy, I thought highly regarded. I'm shocked at what he's putting out there on d
tech could be undefeated ats right now. nc state/k state/ okie state - must be performing worse then their stats.
Donovan smith was horrible to be kind in the nc state game
Wolfeman
Pretty much a regular
MrMulligan
Pretty much a regular
Damn good teams or scheduling? tOSU, Ole, Clemson, UCF & KState have not faced another Top 20 team. UCF & 'Cuse have not faced another Top 30 team. UCF & USAF have not faced another Top 40 team (not sure I'd characterize USAF as a Top 40 team so far).
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
So Daniels is out again for Kansas?
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Not really. Over on that side of the conference they just own one another. UVA over Duke. Duke over Tech. VPI over Virginia.
Clemson beating Miami 96-3 in the prior two games didn’t motivate Miami two or three years ago. And Duke lost to UNC. Their season is over.
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