Discussion & Line Projections for Wednesday 12/20

Killa

To the left, to the left, to the right to the righ
Two games today, quite odd. Tomorrow's card is huge, so I'm gonna be researching all the games now. Lines should be out around 4PM EST. Feel free to chime in with any potential good spots you're looking at.
 
Indiana if i can get a short number when it opens bounce back game
 
Indiana @ Philly

Webber ? for Philly. Philly has now lost 11 straight and 15 out of 16! Indiana kinda plugging along at .500, not playing up to their capabilities. What better team to get a solid road win against?

Indiana -7
Total 191
 
Utah @ Atlanta

Utah off a loss and 7 straight wins vs. Atlanta. Chalk is 8-0 ATS last 8 meetings. JJ was rusty last game, he should be back and he's a BIG matchup problem for Utah, as they start 2 very small guards.

Utah -5
Total 192
 
Minnesota 3 days of rest coming off 2 straight losses an revenge factor meanwhile LA b2b on the road 3rd game in 4 days including OT i like T-Wolves here if the line is -4.5 or less
 
New Orleans @ Orlando

Both teams really struggling. Just a shitty game. Should be gross.

Orlando -7.5
Total 179
 
Golden State @ Boston

Home team 5-0 ATS last 5 in the series. Boston 5-0 SU/ATS last 5. Kandi, Gomes, Wally ALL day to day. GS in bad form right now defensively, getting torched. Intriguing game.

Boston -5
Total 213
 
Charlotte @ Knicks (I'll be at this game)

My boys try to win 2 straight at home for the first time this year. Charlotte very rested, but without Sean May who'd been playing excellent basketball. Knicks NEED Q to be available here, or Steph and Jamal will be the only guards available for action once again. Still contemplating this one.

Knicks -4
Total 197
 
Memphis @ Spurs

Disgusting game. If you have an angle here then I'm all ears.

Spurs -11
Total 179
 
Killa said:
Charlotte @ Knicks (I'll be at this game)

My boys try to win 2 straight at home for the first time this year. Charlotte very rested, but without Sean May who'd been playing excellent basketball. Knicks NEED Q to be available here, or Steph and Jamal will be the only guards available for action once again. Still contemplating this one.

Knicks -4
Total 197

Bobcats NEED May. He's been driving them like Jefferson has been driving the C's.
 
Cleveland @ Jersey

Cleveland starving for road wins, Jersey starving for wins period. Tough matchup for Hughes covering the bigger Carter. RJ can't cover James either tho. Should be a close game.

Nets -1.5
Total 189
 
Really like Sota-Lakers game as well tommorow.Tonight´s game at CHI will be tough, Lakers playing b2b after two OT games.Lakers are a 5-point-dog tonight and I think that Sota is worse team at home than Chicago is though oddsmakers will consider LAL´s tough shedule I see them as a 4-point-dog.
 
Lakers @ Minny

B2B for Lakers, minus Odom. Minny 3-day rested and playing well at home.

Minny -4.5
Total 191
 
Miami @ Milwaukee

Miami 8-1 SU last 9 meetings. Bucks strung together 4 straight home wins, 3 of them vs. awful teams. Wade vs. Redd should be quite a battle.

Milwaukee PK
Total 198
 
Another interesting match is Denver vs. Phoenix.Honestly, I don´t think that Nuggets can be competitive for the second time w/o JR and Melo.But it´s hard to guess what line will come up.Wizards started at +1.5 so I suggest something like Phoenix -6,-7
 
Phoenix @ Denver

We all know Denver's situation. Phoenix on a B2B. This would've been the highest posted total of the year, but not minus Melo and Smith. Suns going for 16 in a row.

Phoenix -6.5
Total 218
 
Houston @ Portland

Houston 9-1 SU last 10 meetings. T-Mac @ Roy both questionable. Blazers won 4 in a row. I won't even bother with a line projection until I know Tracy's status.
 
Dallas @ Seattle

Dallas 6-0 SU last 6 meetings, 4 of them at Seattle. Seattle losers of 5 in a row and Dallas is humming. First game back home is tough. Dallas should roll.

Dallas -7
Total 193
 
Raps @ Clipps

Cassell day to day, Bosh out. Clipps DESPERATE for a win. Toronto B2B after running with Phoenix.

Clipps -8
Total 189
 
Killa said:
Memphis @ Spurs

Disgusting game. If you have an angle here then I'm all ears.

Spurs -11
Total 179

take a look at the last 8 matchups....this number goes under 75% of the time, and by the numbers i'll play -11...this is a rediculous matchup right now, Spurs are playin the best ball in the league right now and its going almost completley unnoticed....memphis is comin off of that crazy OT win against the Sonics...and seeing as how they havent put two wins together or even in the same week for a long time, this qualifies as a letdown spot for the Grizzlies (as crazy as that sounds)...Spurs just let a rediculously poor Philly team compete with them on their home turf...that's as good as Spurs off a loss in my opinion. They cant continue to win close games against these horrific squads and nobody knows that better than John Popovitch. I'll probably be playin the Spurs and the under (as usual)...however the best bet here might be a team total under for Memphis somthin like under 85
 
Killa said:
Golden State @ Boston

Home team 5-0 ATS last 5 in the series. Boston 5-0 SU/ATS last 5. Kandi, Gomes, Wally ALL day to day. GS in bad form right now defensively, getting torched. Intriguing game.

Boston -5
Total 213

My very educated guesses

Wally=OUT (he is rumored out for a few weeks, and as I have mentioned in the past, a sissy when it comes to play thru pain)

Gomes=IN

Kandi=OUT (no timetable has even really been given for his return, surprised to see him called DTD)
 
xpression syst_m said:
I think Utah total will be higher than 192 and I think Houston will open -2 at Portland

U may be right there. We goin apeshit on the GS/Boston over?
 
Killa said:
New Orleans @ Orlando

Both teams really struggling. Just a shitty game. Should be gross.

Orlando -7.5
Total 179

I hope you're right about that spread....that might throw some value on the Hornets ML...
 
Killa said:
Houston @ Portland

Houston 9-1 SU last 10 meetings. T-Mac @ Roy both questionable. Blazers won 4 in a row. I won't even bother with a line projection until I know Tracy's status.

Not sure Tmac makes or breaks this game for Houston...they'll be favored. My guess is it'll be short because of Portland's recent success, and I think I might very likely be on the Rockettes...they've been absolutely solid (relative to most of the nba) on the road.
 
Killa,
I agree that Boston is the bet in that game. funny thing being, the more time green gets, I think the better the Celts can be. The thing I don't like is Boston giving points. I usually tend to fade them when they are chalk and ride them when they are getting points.
 
Utah -3.5 / 4 & 193.5

Ind -6 / 188

Orl -7 / 180

Bos -4/-4.5 & 219

NYK -2 / 191.5

SA -9 / 186

NJN -3.5 / 187

Wolves -1.5 /-2 & 194

Milw -1.5 / 202.5

Suns -4 / 221

Hous -2.5 / 184

Dal -3.5 or -4 /198

LAC -5 / 187

All quick guesses that had no research andtook 30 seconds to do and 10 minutes to type!
 
Al Jefferson is playin well.. The Celtics are making my prediction not look as assanine
 
At first glance, Dallas and Phoenix look good. Mybe the Spurs, depends on how high the line is!
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">I hope we can have these discussions the day before, I think this is good stuff! We get a jump on the line and can adjust accordingly.</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">
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Lines out at Cris. Pretty close on most. Within 2 points of every side except Golden State, which I said earlier I might be wrong on. Only -2 there. I was off on the Knicks total, was thinking wishfully on the Golden State total, and am shocked by the Spurs total.
 
Oh and Nut, if Dallas is -3.5 vs. Seattle I'll go ahead and empty my account.
 
Killa said:
Oh and Nut, if Dallas is -3.5 vs. Seattle I'll go ahead and empty my account.

Like I said off the cuff lines...with them catching 4 vs SA and Dal around -4.5 yesterady I would expect that 4.5 not higher though..
 
Dallas is -4.5 lines are out at pinny
 
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<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>501</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New Orleans Hornets</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +7.5 -102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>502</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Orlando Magic <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -7.5 -108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>505</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Utah Jazz</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -5.5 +100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>506</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Atlanta Hawks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +5.5 -110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>507</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +2.5 +100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>508</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Boston Celtics <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -2.5 -110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>509</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Charlotte Bobcats</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +3 -102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 04:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>510</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Knicks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -3 -108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>511</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Lakers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +4.5 +100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>512</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Timberwolves <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -4.5 -110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>513</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Memphis Grizzlies</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +12.5 -107 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>514</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Antonio Spurs <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -12.5 -103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>515</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +2 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>516</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New Jersey Nets <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -2 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>517</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Miami Heat</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +2 -101 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>518</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Milwaukee Bucks <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -2 -109 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>523</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -4.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>524</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Supersonics <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +4.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> Wed 12/20</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>525</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Toronto Raptors</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> +8 -110 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> 07:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>526</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Clippers <TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> -8 +100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
I think Utah is to high ...

I think SA is to high but my guess of 9 ish was light 10.5 was more accurate

Boston is a little light I expected 4 (would understand 4.5)but would have not been suprised by -3....2.5 little shocking...but doesnt mean its actually value...

Should have guessed 3.5 /4 for Minny so that seems about right but the fact its a bit high makes me wonder do they feel they opened Chi lite today??

I think NJ @ -2 is soft cause it should have been worst case 2.5 / 3

Little suprised LAC is -8 could have seen up to 6.5 even 7 ...

Whatever else I think I was in the realm ...
 
seems like that 2.5 will put a lot of money on the celtics, if so then GS may be a good value

new jersey was favored 5.5-6 last night over GSW, how much better are the nets than the celtics?
 
mr21 said:
seems like that 2.5 will put a lot of money on the celtics, if so then GS may be a good value

new jersey was favored 5.5-6 last night over GSW, how much better are the nets than the celtics?
i think GSW wins SU
 
looking at the board im liking Minnesota -4.5 a lot probably will be my top play for tomorrow
 
Is NJ soft @ 2? Is RJ playing?

I think closer to a pick is accurate so 2 is wrthy for this game. Nets haven't really proven themselves and Cavs are not road warriors.....
 
Killa...I think they certainly can I just felt the line would be 4.5....

mr.21...see here is the tricky part...while you dont believe the Nets/ celts differnce is great the linesmakers seem to...remember what the line was NJ hosted Boston ...?? NJ -8 ...what does 8 say...its says that on a neutral court the Nets are basically somewhere in the area of 4 to 5 pts better then Boston...now NJ blew a huge lead and lost by 2...so yeah the line was a little fat but not very...maybe NJ is about 3 pts better...well if a bad spot GS playing 4th in 5 NJ was -6 then I could see very easily why this line would be -3...so is 2.5 far off...maybe NJ is 3.5 pts better instead of 3....

This is what I mean by simply getting a feel for where line should be...it took be literally about 5 minutes to figure out the guesses I put out there...they were mostly in the ballpark..there just are no tricks...


For NJ RJ has played the past 2... why would the game be a PK...Cavs dont win on the road..they opened NJ -1.5 versus DET the other day and had them -6 vs GS....why wouldnt they open it as NJ being favored sligtily...?? do you really think Cavs are 3 pts or so better then NJ...which would denote a PK in NJ..?? Just thinking outloud.....


Who do I like I havent even finished up the todays card...Atl < mEmphis and NJ seem interesting to me...
 
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