I don't post much - mostly because I don't have the time - but I need to get some thoughts down for this game before I wager on it. I've seen another thread somewhere on here with regards to this game, but I am, admittedly, doing this for my own good... and I hope that breaking this down will help me win (or save) some money.
I don't think there's any doubt that we are more talented than Louisville, on both sides of the ball. But defensively, we have some issues. I can't quite put my finger on it, though. It could be that Kelly just simply isn't anywhere near Jeremy Pruitt's class as DC. Our D-Line is extremely talented, but they aren't very fast - and we have played some pretty solid mobile QB's. Watson, my god, that kid has the talent and composure to be special. But it feels like Kelly's only answer to that type of QB has been to be overly aggressive with corner-blitzes, and we just aren't executing very well. Just schematically, something is off. Where's Charlie Weiss when you need him. Another note: it just feels like we are out-coached and less prepared every week. Then we fix shit at halftime, Jameis and Rashad Greene put us on their back and we score nearly every time we touch the ball in the 2h. Another note: We have the best kicker on the planet, and he could be a huge factor in this game. If we don't turn it over inside the 35, we are going to score points.
Offensively - it's hard to acknowledge but easy to see, our offensive line is just flat out overrated. 4-5 seniors and a RS Fr, you would expect to be one of the better units in the land, but we get our asses kicked at the LOS every week. Don't let the Karlos Williams news affect how you see the game. Dalvin Cook is great, and if there's one place we can afford injuries it's at RB.
With regards to the actual match up tomorrow night - I'm not buying into last week's Michael Dyer resurrection. NCSt is god awful, and if we played them again we would beat the living shit out of them. It's not often you see a team catch so many breaks and have so many terrible decisions result in huge plays (I'm looking at you, Jacoby Brissett) and they still lost by damn near 20. Back to my point though - Louisville's offense is still not good, in my opinion, and Michael Dyer running for 173 against NCSt means very little to my capping of this game. Gardner isn't going to beat us with his legs, and I expect our D-Line to be able to hold their own without us having to get creative. I think this is a huge factor, obviously, because despite their talent on the defensive side of the ball, Louisville is going to have to at least score in the mid/high 20's to cover.
I guess to answer my own doubts about our defense... I don't think that Louisville will have the same type of success keeping our D on the field as our recent opponents have. What I worry about, however, is getting down in the 1h (like we have every game) and this time being on the road on a Thursday night against a capable defense. When we were down to Clemson, we were at least at home, and they shit the bed (granted, no Winston). Same with ND. We got down early, but we were at home and stayed composed. At NCSt, we were down 18 I think, but their defense is horrible. If this happens at Louisville tomorrow night, it will be interesting to see what happens. To our credit, we have played from behind a shit ton with Jameis under center, and the kid has been nothing short of outstanding.
Louisville hasn't faced an offense anywhere near what we should bring to the table. I really wish Deshaun Watson would have played the entire game vs. Louisville, but I kind of think his absence is what brings some value this line as it currently sits. He is a difference maker, and if Clemson wins that game by 17-ish, the general perception of Louisville may be a shade different than what it is now... Maybe not.
I have a strong lean to FSU -4. To play devil's advocate... if you bet on Louisville, they have to score first. As I have seen time and time again, we have done nothing to show we can come out prepared and dominate a game. Even in our 43-3 win over Wake, I think we were down 3-0 or 7-0 after the 1Q. But even if the ville can score first, I don't think they can sustain enough drives to keep the lead. Maybe they play inspired, maybe the HFA on a Thursday night can keep them in it... But I really don't trust Will Gardner to hang on to a lead even if they get it. If you are inclined bet Louisville, the first half seems like the obvious choice over the whole game. And vice versa for FSU. I haven't placed a bet yet, but thought I should get all my thoughts down first so I can go through them a few times. Hope this helps others as well. Apologies for the longevity.
