DFS Talk

Whether you’re participating in season-long or daily leagues, Jimmy Graham is an outlier at the tight end position. He’s so scarce that many owners drafted him in the first round of season long leagues. On Draftkings, Graham is often priced 20% higher than every other tight end.But what’s the cost associated with drafting Graham? In season-long leagues, you potentially lose a first-round pick—and the opportunity to draft a player at a position much thinner than tight end. The same idea is true in daily leagues; there’s a cost to adding every player that goes beyond his salary, and that’s the opportunity to add other players.
In that way, we should be thinking of players not in terms of what we gain by acquiring them, but rather what we lose. That basic idea is one of the cornerstones of fantasy sports, no matter the style.
 
I like to pick near the end of rounds in fantasy drafts because I think it offers an advantage over drafting in the middle. Namely, you can predict the picks that will be made between your own, allowing you to more consistently select optimal players. For example, if you draft 11th in a 12-team league and you’re deciding between a wide receiver and a running back in the third round, your choice should be governed by what the owner drafting 12th did in the first two rounds. If he chose two running backs, for example, you should probably draft the wide receiver first, even if he’s not rated as high on your board, because there’s a better chance that the running back you covet will make it to you in the fourth round.Daily fantasy is filled with even more elements of game theory. Not only is it valuable to use your opponents’ beliefs and actions to your advantage, but it’s crucial. That extends from “buying low” on underachieving studs because their price has dropped and they won’t be on a lot of teams to entering a lot of Thursday leagues because they’re filled with bad money in the form of anxious owners who want to see their players on national television.
In many ways, the beliefs of your opponents are more important than your own. There’s so much value in implementing a contrarian approach to fantasy sports, whether you’re in season-long or daily leagues. Your goal shouldn’t be to employ a specific strategy at all costs, but rather the one that creates the greatest net effect after your opponents’ actions are taken into consideration. In season-long fantasy, that might mean bypassing your highest-rated player because you know he’ll drop in the draft, while in daily fantasy, it might mean skipping over an elite value because you know he’ll be in most lineups (thus decreasing the number of meaningful players in each lineup and increasing the inherent variance involved in the outcome).
 
When it comes down to it, both season-long and daily fantasy leagues are about managing risk and reward. Everything you do comes down to how much it maximizes upside and inhibits downside. In certain season-long leagues, such as DraftMasters in which your top-scoring players from each week are automatically plugged in as starters, you should utilize a high-variance approach in an effort to maximize the ceiling of each player. You might use a similar strategy in daily fantasy tournaments, overlooking safety in favor of upside. There are all sorts of similar decisions that need to be made in all forms of fantasy sports, the most ideal of which are those that maximize your ceiling and minimize your floor.
 
Finally, it’s important to note that a lot of the research you do for traditional fantasy sports can be applied to daily leagues, particularly in the beginning of the year. Astute daily owners will fill their early-season lineups with many of the same players coveted by season-long owners in an effort to acquire value before price inflation. Whether you’re playing in season-long or daily leagues, your goal is to predict breakouts before they occur so that you don’t need to pay a premium to generate production. Your season-long projections are a tool that can help accomplish that task, even in daily leagues.
 
Some week 1 Head to Head and 50/50 targets

QB
Peyton Manning
Nick Foles
Colin Kaepernick
Shaun Hill

RB
Matt Forte
Montee Ball
Bernard Pierce
Rashad Jennings

WR
Julio Jones
Emmanuel Sanders
Demaryius Thomas
Victor Cruz
Justin Hunter

TE
Jordan Cameron
Zach Ertz
Julius Thomas
 
I've included a lot of those guys in my lineups. Couple of names not listed that I have in a few gpp lineups.

Fred Jackson
Frank Gore

Eric Decker
Michael Floyd

Travis Kelce
Antonio Gates
 
isn't gates 50/50 to play? doesn't seem like a great option. Here's my team this week. I've been doing really well in baseball (my best sport), have not done football yet as I just signed up a few weeks back.

[TABLE="class: roster, width: 488"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: username, align: right"][/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]QB[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]E.J. Manuel
BUF @ CHI[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]RB[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Shane Vereen
NE @ MIA[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]RB[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Adrian Peterson
MIN @ STL[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]WR[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Julio Jones
ATL v NO[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]WR[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]DeSean Jackson
WAS @ HOU[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]WR[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Jeremy Maclin
PHI v JAC[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]TE[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Jimmy Graham
NO @ ATL[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]K[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Matt Bryant
ATL v NO[/TD]
[TD="class: score"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: pregame no-scoring"]
[TD="class: position, align: center"]D[/TD]
[TD="class: player"]Houston Texans
HOU v WAS[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
The more info the better guys. In a GPP you need the low own guys to go off.

in baseball specifically you can find a lot of value with a low $ pitcher with a good matchup. kinda what I'm doing here with EJ; not sure it will translate but it allowed me to fill my flex positions with some stars.
 
in baseball specifically you can find a lot of value with a low $ pitcher with a good matchup. kinda what I'm doing here with EJ; not sure it will translate but it allowed me to fill my flex positions with some stars.
Baseball a little different than the NFL and NBA. In the NFL you can kind of tell what the floor and ceiling is of a players and in baseball even the best go 0-4 a lot of nights
 
Here's some GPP plays to target

QB
Tony Romo
Josh McCown
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
Phillip Rivers
Matt Cassel
Chad Henne

RB
Frank Gore
Joique Bell
Maurice Jones-Drew
Zac Stacy
Steven Ridley

WR
Victor Cruz
Terrance Williams
Justin Hunter
Roddy White
Eric Decker
Mike Wallace
 
MY top 5 players by position

QB
1. Peyton Manning
2. Drew Brees
3. Nick Foles
4. Colin Kaepernick
5. Jay Cutler

RB
1. LeSean McCoy
2 Jamaal Charles
3. Matt Forte
4. Montee Ball
5. Adrian Peterson

WR
1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Julio Jones
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Alshon Jeffery
5. Victor Cruz

TE
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Julius Thomas
3. Zach Ertz
4. Rob Gronkowski (limited)
5. Jordan Cameron
 
Iceman. - good stuff even though I disagree with a lot of your players.

Im all in on dfb this year so the more talk the better.
 
My two nfl lineups today
Pos Player FPPG
QB Andrew Luck 20.6 swap out
RB Chris Johnson 15.5 swap out
RB Shane Vereen 16.0 swap out
WR Julian Edelman 16.8 swap out
WR Marqise Lee 0.0 swap out
WR Demaryius Thomas 22.0 swap out
TE Jimmy Graham 18.4 swap out
FLEX Malcom Floyd 12.0 swap out
DST Buccaneers 8.0 swap out


Player FPPG
QB Peyton Manning 27.3 swap out
RB Mark Ingram 6.7 swap out
RB Steven Jackson 12.4 swap out
WR Brandin Cooks 0.0 swap out
WR Brian Hartline 13.0 swap out
WR Emmanuel Sanders P 11.3 swap out
TE Julius Thomas 15.2 swap out
FLEX LeSean McCoy 22.0 swap out
DST Vikings 5.6 swap out
 
My two nfl lineups today
Pos Player FPPG
QB Andrew Luck 20.6 swap out
RB Chris Johnson 15.5 swap out
RB Shane Vereen 16.0 swap out
WR Julian Edelman 16.8 swap out
WR Marqise Lee 0.0 swap out
WR Demaryius Thomas 22.0 swap out
TE Jimmy Graham 18.4 swap out
FLEX Malcom Floyd 12.0 swap out
DST Buccaneers 8.0 swap out


Player FPPG
QB Peyton Manning 27.3 swap out
RB Mark Ingram 6.7 swap out
RB Steven Jackson 12.4 swap out
WR Brandin Cooks 0.0 swap out
WR Brian Hartline 13.0 swap out
WR Emmanuel Sanders P 11.3 swap out
TE Julius Thomas 15.2 swap out
FLEX LeSean McCoy 22.0 swap out
DST Vikings 5.6 swap out


2nd lineup doing work... How bout 3 more to Julius
 
My top plays by positions

Catchers
Travis d’Arnaud
Dioner Navarro
Jonathan Lucroy

1st
Adrian Gonzalez
Edwin Encarnacion
Chris Davis

2nd
Scooter Gennett
Neil Walker
Robinson Cano

3rd
Anthony Rendon
Kyle Seager
Aramis Ramirez

SS
Hanley Ramirez
Jose Reyes
Jhonny Peralta

OF
Gerardo Parra
Khris Davis
Nelson Cruz
Adam Jones
Marlon Byrd

SP
Clayton Kershaw
Felix Hernandez
Doug Fister
Justin Verlander
Mike Minor
[TABLE="class: tablesorter tablesorter-default hasFilters hasStickyHeaders"]
<tbody>[TR="class: even"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Anyone want to play a Monday night NFL head to head. Post your username and I will send you an invite. Lets have some fun
 
NFL Week 1

We’ve all been there. Your team is doing awesome, you’re ready to take down that elusive GPP… and you forget to look at that one guy. That one guy who had the cake matchup, and was the most obvious play on the board, so you don’t even worry about checking how he did.
So you check.
And it all goes to hell as you see your “for sure” turned into a “for naught.”
Even though we all know this is a game of skill, there are often a few guys who abandon Lady Logic and join up with Lady Luck to punch you in the nuts. Let’s look at the top five Lineup Busters from Week one in this inaugural edition of Misery Loves Company.
5. Shaun Hill: Nobody was expecting Hill to light the world on fire but, for his minimum salary against what should have been a relatively decent matchup, it was tough to imagine the absolute face-plant he pulled on us DFSers. He didn’t need hardly anything to give us value, and yet he miraculously managed to barely net a positive score in his first half of play before leaving with a fake injury. The coaching staff is claiming it actually was an injury, but he was so awful that that’s pretty hard to believe. Hopefully the money you saved on Hill’s turd allowed to pay up for someone else that canceled out his wretched performance, but Hill sunk many a lineup this week.
hill2.jpg

4. Ben Tate and Bernard Pierce: I’m lumping these two together because it just seems like they should be. Last season, both showed flashes of potential usefulness as strong backup RB’s in good offenses that fit their styles, and both found themselves as presumably three down backs at a very reduced salary. However, Tate got injured and saw over 100 yards and two TD’s get taken by his backups, and Pierce was just so awful he got benched, barely registering a positive score on any site. That’s just not what you’re looking for when hoping for value, and now Tate is probably injured and Pierce seemingly already lost his starting job. Whoops.
3. Demaryius Thomas: There are many people who think Demaryius could potentially be the top WR this year, and I can see how that would be possible seeing as how beastly he is with the ball. However, the seemingly 25% of DFS community who rolled him out for SNF were appalled as he channeled his inner Darrius Heyward-Bey and stone-handed pass after pass while never really getting loose to do any damage, despite a plethora of targets. Obviously, he will rebound from this week as Manning is all about sharing the wealth, but this is not the performance people were hoping for given Welker’s suspension and Decker’s departure.
demaryius-thomas-550x330.jpg

2. Andre Ellington: What a frustrating situation this was, as we ridiculously were forced to experience mid-season decision-making before the season was even underway. Somehow, there wasn’t any news about his foot injury until the 11th hour of the regular season starting, and then we hear that it’s a 4-6 week injury. Not only is this stupid from a DFS perspective where he was probably going to be one of the highest owned players due to his projected three-down role, but there is a fantasy owner in every season-long league out there that got totally hosed with this news. To make matters even more confusing, he ended up being changing from a 4-6 week injury to a GTD on Monday night, leaving you with some decision to make since, typically “4-6 weeks” doesn’t translate to “4-6 days.” However, apparently he felt okay and opted to play just to make everything even messier from here on out, because foot injuries don’t seem to heal when they’re not allowed to (just ask every professional athlete in the history of the universe). Overall, considering this was just Week One, this had to have been one of the more frustrating situations in recent DFS memory.
1. Jamaal Charles: Was there any doubt JC would take the crown here? It’s not very often where the player who is generally the highest priced (and good reason) falls flat on his face like he did in Week One, especially when you consider how ridiculously consistent Charles was every week last season. Yes, the workload was lighter than it should have been, but it’s not like Charles was able to do much with it when he did touch the ball, averaging barely three yards per touch in what seemed like it was going to be a juicy matchup. McCoy and Forte didn’t exactly light the world on fire with this performances, but you could have survived due to their volume. Plug in Charles, though, and your week was over quite a bit earlier than it should have been.
 
I'd guess there's going to be a pretty large % of people playing the Locker/Wright stack this weekend. So I guess I'm gonna look to fade it.

I actually don't hate a Romo/Dez stack this weekend for gpp. I think this is a pretty good spot for Romo to bounce back. And they (especially Romo) won't likely be highly owned.

Gonna look to target Peterson, Foster, Ball at RB in most lineups. Probably have some Moreno out there, too.

Gonna keep looking into WR. There seems to be value all over the place. Looks like you can get some guys who were highly targeted in week 1 for very reasonable prices.

TE I'll likely use Ertz, Davis, and Olsen mostly.
 
Back
Top