ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
We have a 2 game slate/3 game slate/showdown slate for sat/sun/mon respectively... I'll try to keep comments to those thoughts/slates, but if you're playing a full weekend slate adjust accordingly.
***EDIT*** - I want to make note, that for PrROE and Pass&Run potential I broke them into 4 quadrants, so top 3 (great), 4-6 (good), 7-9 (meh) bottom 3 (bad). So it is not neceassrily that they have a bad pass potential, but when compared to the rest, they are ranked 10-12th out of 12....The DVOA matchups are still broken into quadrants of all 32 teams (like the entire year) --- if you want me to note the FPs given up to the specific positions (ie. what quadrant) I can add that too.
Saturday 2 Game Slate
CLV/HOU
Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation (8th/12), and a bad pass potential (12th/12). Ford/Hunt have a bad run potential (11th/12).
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation (12th/12), and a bad pass potential (10th/12). Singletary has a bad run potential (12th/12).
Browns TTR is 5th overall (2nd for 2 game slate) (good)
Texans TTR is 9th overall (3rd for 2 game slate)
Pace of play is 1st overall (good). O/U Rank is 3rd (Just better than MIA/KCC for the slate)
Injuries - CLV - On D, S Delpit (95%) is not returning to lineup. On O, RBs Hunt/Strong are Q/didn't practice. K Hopkins/WR Tillman are out.
- HOU - On D, S Ward (95%+) is out for 3rd+ week. DE Hughes (42%) is out. 4 Q players, DT/DE/DT/DE Rankings/Greenard/Collins/Anderson who all didn't practice. On O, WR Brown/Woods are Q.
From a 2 game slate perspective, I think you, at the least, want more of the passing game options from this game as one (this one) is indoors, and the other is in frigid conditions, so keep that in mind.
I'll start with ford, he is the cheapest of the "starting" RBs, but may also go the lowest owned. That semi intrigues me. He has led this backfield in snaps all weeks with Flacco (Even if some weeks were under 50% of snaps), has had about a 10% target share, which with Flacco can mean 4+ targets. His 2 direct backups may not play in this game, and if they are out, I think I will be extremely overweight, otherwise, I'll at a miniumum keep it at neutral. Cooper has really played about 3 games with Flacco, Wks14/15/16, and he has a statline of 28.5% target share/15.86 aDOT, I think you would be stupid to pass that up, and we've seen him slate break vs this very team 2 weeks ago... I don't think Bell/Goodwin are cheap enough when compared to moore to warrant consideration in a vacuum, but one of them will get decent playing time, and I think the ownership leverage you get in him over Moore makes me interested for tourneys. Njoku is rightfully priced up, but he should arguably be more expensive than Kelce when comparing the form/current matchups. In just those 3 games with the healthy receiving options/flacco, he has a great 24% target share with an ok aDOT of 6.29, w/ 1.33 rz targets/g,
Just like Ford, Singletary could be under owned with most eyes going to the backs in the other game.... he has a ppr floor, but unlike Ford, we know Singletary will play a lot more snaps, and has a ceiling to 30+ opps (hitting it twice across his 7~ true leadback/starts), I am more comfortable being over weight here than ford, but I lean that way with both. It is hard to get some true metric numbers on HOU WRs as they've all been in and out of the lineups, as well as stroud... I will note what I can... Collins in his 7 games with stroud post the bye, has a really food 27.5% target share, with a 10.77 aDOT, that combination, while not as great as Cooper, can keep him in the conversation to end as WR1 --- and if you want to go even further, there were really 3~ (because dell got hurt early) games in which Collins lined up without dell, in those 3 games he had a 35% target share/10.9 aDOT, that's pretty elite,, and there is a possibility we have no Woods/Brown in this one too. If Brown suits up, he is probably my #2 option, we've seen him have spike aDOT weeks, if he is out... Metchie/Hutchinson become almost floor value/upside options. I don't think I'll have a ton of schultz, but his metrics are good, and everyone will be going njoku, so I can see the argument in tourneys... he has a 19.5%/7.64 aDOT in the last 2 weeks so it wouldn't shock me to see him out perform at a cheaper price.
MIA/KCC
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation (6th/12), and a good pass potential (5th/12). Mostert/Achane have a great run potential (1st/12).
Mahomes has a bad pressure rate situation (11th/12), and a meh pass potential (8th/12). Pacheco has a meh run potential (9th/12).
Dolphins TTR is T-10th overall (4th for the 2 game slate)
Chiefs TTR is 4th overall (1st for the 2 game slate) (good).
Pace of play is 5th (2nd of 2). O/U Rank is 4th (just below the CLV/HOU game)
Injuries - MIA - On D, CB Howard (88%)/LB Chubb (81%) are out for 2nd week, LB Baker (84%)/LB Van Ginkel (66%), LB Goode (11%) are out (and don't forget LB Jaelan Phillips has been out for 6~ weeks now too). S's Holland/Elliot are Q. On O, WR/RB Waddle/Mostert are Q.
- KCC - On O, still no RB/WR McKinnon/Moore, and WRs Toney/Ross are Q. T Morris (starter weeks 13-17) is out.
I want to make sure I start of and say I know the weather is frigid, and everyone will be playing the backs in this game (myself included), but the O/U is still really close to CLV/HOU's, and not many people are going to have the passing options here in abundance, so making some lineups where that succeeds (and maybe the run game fails or doesn't beat out CLV/HOU) could make a lot of sense from a leverage perspective.
If Mostert is in... I'll probably have to be off Achane, he just gets vultured, and is averaging 12.5 ppr fps in those 4 games (since his return). I'm not paying top dollar for that... but if he is out, all systems go. If Waddle is out, C. Wilson/Smythe become cheap punt/salary saver options, otherwise I'll mostly be off of them. If in, I think Waddle/Hill are interchangeable and I will sprinkle one of each in a few lineups.
In 4 games w/o McKinnon, Pacheco has had 3 games over 21 PPR FPs, averaging 22.33 opps/g (5.33 targets/g), The 4th game was game they trailed raiders throughout where he had just 15 opps (4 targets), still his floor/ceiling combo is as good as anyone's, and one of my favorite plays, especially with the broken LB core of MIA. This WR core may be the healthiest its been in awhile, which muddies it up to much. We know we can rely on Rice, and I don't think in this environment I will be on the deep threats of MVS/Watson --- if Toney is in, I don't mind punting him in some. Look I know Kelce has been disappointing, but again, we have a depleted LB core, we have all eyes on Njoku (will a fall back to Schultz), and Kelce since the bye (7 games) has a fine 20% target share/6.96 aDOT... would it shock anyone to see him produce in this situation, I don't think so, and I wouldn't just cross him off your player pool.
Sunday 3 Game Slate
PIT/BUF
Steelers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rudolph has a meh pressure rate situation (9th/12), and a bad pass potential (11th/12). Najee/Warren have a good run potential (5th/12).
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation (7th/12), but a great pass potential (2nd/12). J. Cook has a great run potential (3rd/12).
Steelers TTR is 12th overall (last). (6th for the 3 game slate/last) (bad)
Bills TTR is 6th overall. (4th for the 3 game slate)
Pace of play is 6th overall (3rd for the 3 game slate) (meh). O/U Rank is 6th overall (3rd for the 3 game slate) (bad).
- Injuries - PIT - On D, S Thompson (56%) is out for 4th week, LB Watt (82%) is out.
- BUF - On D, DT Phillips (44%) out for 4th week. S Rapp (50%+) is out. On O, WR G. Davis is out.
They moved this game to monday, the weather is a bit better but still not good, and DK has kept this on the SUN slate, and I'm sure they are going to have new tourneys for a 2 game monday slate too. In the 3 game slate scenario, we definitely want no more than 1 to 2 players from this games in a vast majority of lineups... in the 2 game slate, I have that lean a bit too, especially with the value/matchup in phi/tbb game.
From PITs standpoint, they have by far the worst TT of the week, and even worse when just looking at the 6 team slate (the 5th team, gbp, is projected 21.75 to their 13....) I can't stomach playing a WR despite the possibility of a ton of short yardage catch (which is good for PPR sites), but you have to love going to the other games first imo. The real debate, is Najee or Warren. while I will have a touch of both, I'll probably have a bit more Najee, we've now seen b2b 26+ carries on the ground, and last week he even got to 5 targets, which he hasn't seen more than 3 since week 10, oh and he also gets the goal line work. while being just $300 more than warren.
I think Cook can perform well, but he is too expensive for me when he has lenny/murray possible vultures, oh and a guy named J. Allen... so I'll be very underweight at best. I think Diggs goes very low owned, and the removal of Davis gives us some more added value, but I don't want to play him with Kupp/Nacua staring right at you, and the wind gusts are still a semi concern on deep balls... who I would go to are the cheap value WR plays, especially Shakir, He should see 80%+ of snaps, last week he had the lower aDOT of Diggs/Sherfield/Davis which I like for these conditions, and he is almost floor price. I don't hate Kincaid, I may consider him a touch more on the monday slate, but Knox is so much cheaper, and I'd probably be hunting for just a TD at that price point, which I'm fine with, On the Sun slate, its hard to like either, as we have value option in DET (if no laporta) that are probably in better spots than Knox, and then we have guys like Ferguson near Kincaid.
GBP/DAL
Packers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a great P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation (5th/12), but a meh pass potential (7th/12). Jones has a meh run potential (8th/12).
Dak has a good pressure rate situation (6th/12), and a great pass potential (1st/12). Pollard has a good run potential (6th/12).
Packers TTR is 8th overall (5th for the 3 game slate).
Cowboys TTR is 1st overall (1st for the 3 game slate) (great).
Pace of play is 4th overall (2nd for the 3 game slate). O/U Rank is 2nd overall (2nd for the 3 game slate) (great).
- Injuries - GBP - On D, S Ford (77%)/CB Stokes (86%) are out for 3rd week, CB Alexander (100%) is Q.. On O, RB Dillon is doubtful, and WR Watson is Q.
- DAL - Healthy.
If AJ Dillon is out, I am locking in A. Jones and moving on... in a must win game last week (without dillon) he saw an 82% snap count,.. and had 27 opps (5 targets) vs a stout CHI D, I don't see how that's not around floor range. If Watson is playing, I will always have a sprinkle of him, he is a higher caliber jameson williams, and that would leave us with Doubs/Reed... I know Wicks has been good, but he is priced hgiher than watson and wouldn't be playable.. Melton has shined too, he'd be the WR5, I guess it's good he is floor price, but idk how far down we need to go for salary relief, I wouldn't do this in more than 1 dart throw lineup if mass entering. Musgrave did come back last week but only played 15% of snaps.. Kraft still hit 90%... if you think that this continues holds true, he may be a steal at 3.3K and possibly others won't notice.
Pollard had 7 opps (0 targets) in the second half of the WAS game last week, in that time frame, DAL led by 3 to 4 possessions. In the first half he had 12 opps (2 targets), He has far and away been the most affected back in the league when it comes to lopsided game scripts (in both directions). I think he has weekly 20+ potential upside, but at the same time he could hit you with a 10 point max ceiling, I think he is worth the range-y outcome, I'll make sure to have him. Is Lamb just not in a weekly smash spot every week? Regardless of the opponent... his last 6 games of the year he had a phenomenal 35% target share, with an ok 7,53 aDOT, but despite lopsided games, Dallas was still in the top half of the league in terms of pass play%, so getting 35% of higher end volume is not only floor safe, but slate breaking potential too. The caveat is he is 9K, and we have some other monsters in this slate too, so can we afford him? Does this technically have the worst script of the 2 big O/U games? I'll obviously have some, but indirectly may be a little underweight. Cooks really separated himself from Gallup around week 9, in that time, he leads the WR core in aDOT at 13.81 and is 2nd in target share at 14%, he feels too cheap at 4.9K. With the returen of Hendershot in week 14, Ferguson still maintained a 20% target share, but his aDOT is not so good at 4.39... I know he has some TD equity, but I think I'm going for the TE value options in thi slate, so I can get the bigger and better WRs/RBs...
LAR/DET
Rams have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a good P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation (2nd/12), and a good pass potential (6th/12). Kyren has a meh run potential (7th/12).
Goff has a great pressure rate situation (1st/12)., and a great pass potential (3rd/12). Montgomery/Gibbs have a great run potential (2nd/12).
Rams TTR is 3rd overall (3rd for the 3 game slate) (good).
Lions TTR is 2nd overall (2nd for the 3 game slate) (great).
Pace of play is 2nd overall (1st for the 3 game slate). O/U Rank is 1st overall (1st of the 3 game slate) (great).
- Injuries - LAR - On D, LB/DT/S Reeder(33%)/Brown(37%)/Fuller(93%) are all Q. On O, TE Higbee is Q.
- DET - On D, CB Jacobs (90%) is still out. DT Cominsky (56%) is Q to return after a 1 game hiatus. On O, no WR Raymond, no TE Mitchell, and TE LaPorta is Q.
I am not going to fully fade Kyren and his workhorse, smashing capabilities, but I obviously like the matchups/pricing of other backs compared to his, so I will be underweight... but if you feel otherwise, I won't stop you. In Weeks 12-17, which is post bye, and where the big 2 both played with eachother, Nacua/Kupp almost have identical target shares (25%/24.5%) but Nacua out aDOTs him significantly, 9.94 to 5.86. and they are practically the same price... I will have a bit more exposure to nacua, but I will be playing both. Ironically this is the same timeframe Robinson has became a name for himself, and he leads the 3 in aDOT at 12.75, and has a respectable target share of 18% someone with those metrics, and has seen 90%+ snaps in more than half of those game should NOT be 3.6K he is far and away one of the better cheap options on this slate. I may throw in higbee in a big game/team stack, but his aDOT is bad a 3.46, and he only has a target share of 14.5% in that same frame (minus the 1 game he missed), I'm going more DET/GBP TEs to begin with.. pass.
Montgomery is soooo hard to trust, in the 9 games since the bey, he has really lost the starting role, and had failed to even hit 40% of snaps in 5 of them (under 50% in 7). I know he could get TDs to salvage a 10+ point fantasy day, but he has to low of a PPR floor for me at that price... Gibbs is just $300 more and at least gives you safety with some explosiveness/ceiling potential, I'd much rather him.... If no Laporta and the Raymond injury, DET will be without almost 29% of their yearly target share.... Amon-Ra is already at 29% on the season.... I don't see how he doesn't have a floor of 14+ targets despite defensive scores/early lead... I like him. I think Reynolds is a fine option at 3.8K but his metrics are a bit worse than Robinson, and we now have Jameson Williams coming in with no WR4 threat at all, and he has a big 15.59 aDOT.. I will sprinke him in lineups for HR threat. I will mostly be going Kraft, but my secondary piece will be Wright if no LaPorta, as he is just 3K, and nobody else is there.
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
PHI/TBB
Eagles have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation (3rd/12), and a meh pass potential (9th/12). Swift has a good run potential (4th/12).
Baker has a great pressure rate situation (3rd/12), and a good pass potential (4th/12). R. White has a bad run potential (3rd/12).
Eagles TTR is 7th overall.
Bucs TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 5th.
Injuries - PHI - On D, no S Brown (38%+), S Blankenship (89%) is Q. On O, no WR Brown/TE Okwuegbunam.
- TBB - On D, DT Greene may be returning from IR.
I obviously want to take the passing options in this game, and now no brown is good for cheapies. We haven't seen Brown miss a game this year to get a good gauge on things to come, but what we do know is he had a big time 30% target share on the season that now has to disperse... all floors will riseeee. I won't spend to much time on Smith, but he obviously can be played. I think Quez Watkins should be the direct benefactor of increased playing time, and in his limited time this year, due to injury mainly, he has an aDOT almost identical to Brown. Zacchaues/Julio will most likely be the WR3... I guess i'd rather dart throw julio and his semi better TD equity, but I won't have much of either if that. I think Goedert will be the one I am most overweight on. Of the 4 teams, TBB has given up the most points to TE's, In weeks 14-17 when Goedert returned from injury, AND Brown played, he had a 24% target share, with a meh 4.93 aDOT... I would be shocked if he doesn't get to 10+ targets, and I do expect them to be playing from behind. Eagles just don't use swift to catch balls out of the backfield anymore... he had a stretch of 3 games with at least 4 targets early in the year, and then he had over 3 targets in just 1 of the 14 other games, and averaging 1/g in his last 4... and if the Eagles get to close to the goal line, it'll be hurts city... it stinks but I'll be very underweight.
I know the run game matchup is tough, but R.White is a bell cow with PPR safety built in... no other RB besides maybe cook will get even 60% of snaps, while White will probably get 75%+... I have no issues going here. Taking out Wk4 (where Evans got hurt early) Evans has a 25.5% target share, with a great 14.03 aDOT to Godwins 23% target share but 9.07 aDOT... we know the secondary has issues, I obviously want the big play upside of Evans all day, but I won't hesitate to play both/mix and match some in other lineups... Godwin has definitely seen the target up share tick to end the season, but Evans still leads in aDOT. If mass entering, Palmer is a good dart throw/salary saver... he has a 13% target share/11.5 aDOT over his last 5 games... it doesn't take much to pay off a 3.4K salary. Otton will always grade out good... we know the story, he runs a ton of routes, plays a ton of snaps, actually has a decent aDOT L5 (8.59), but for soem reason, he just doesn't get targeted enough... I'm trying my best to get goedert in lineups, and leveraging with kincaid in a couple... but where I pay down to knox, I may switch it up for otton in just a couple too.
***EDIT*** - I want to make note, that for PrROE and Pass&Run potential I broke them into 4 quadrants, so top 3 (great), 4-6 (good), 7-9 (meh) bottom 3 (bad). So it is not neceassrily that they have a bad pass potential, but when compared to the rest, they are ranked 10-12th out of 12....The DVOA matchups are still broken into quadrants of all 32 teams (like the entire year) --- if you want me to note the FPs given up to the specific positions (ie. what quadrant) I can add that too.
Saturday 2 Game Slate
CLV/HOU
Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Flacco has a meh pressure rate situation (8th/12), and a bad pass potential (12th/12). Ford/Hunt have a bad run potential (11th/12).
Stroud has a bad pressure rate situation (12th/12), and a bad pass potential (10th/12). Singletary has a bad run potential (12th/12).
Browns TTR is 5th overall (2nd for 2 game slate) (good)
Texans TTR is 9th overall (3rd for 2 game slate)
Pace of play is 1st overall (good). O/U Rank is 3rd (Just better than MIA/KCC for the slate)
Injuries - CLV - On D, S Delpit (95%) is not returning to lineup. On O, RBs Hunt/Strong are Q/didn't practice. K Hopkins/WR Tillman are out.
- HOU - On D, S Ward (95%+) is out for 3rd+ week. DE Hughes (42%) is out. 4 Q players, DT/DE/DT/DE Rankings/Greenard/Collins/Anderson who all didn't practice. On O, WR Brown/Woods are Q.
From a 2 game slate perspective, I think you, at the least, want more of the passing game options from this game as one (this one) is indoors, and the other is in frigid conditions, so keep that in mind.
I'll start with ford, he is the cheapest of the "starting" RBs, but may also go the lowest owned. That semi intrigues me. He has led this backfield in snaps all weeks with Flacco (Even if some weeks were under 50% of snaps), has had about a 10% target share, which with Flacco can mean 4+ targets. His 2 direct backups may not play in this game, and if they are out, I think I will be extremely overweight, otherwise, I'll at a miniumum keep it at neutral. Cooper has really played about 3 games with Flacco, Wks14/15/16, and he has a statline of 28.5% target share/15.86 aDOT, I think you would be stupid to pass that up, and we've seen him slate break vs this very team 2 weeks ago... I don't think Bell/Goodwin are cheap enough when compared to moore to warrant consideration in a vacuum, but one of them will get decent playing time, and I think the ownership leverage you get in him over Moore makes me interested for tourneys. Njoku is rightfully priced up, but he should arguably be more expensive than Kelce when comparing the form/current matchups. In just those 3 games with the healthy receiving options/flacco, he has a great 24% target share with an ok aDOT of 6.29, w/ 1.33 rz targets/g,
Just like Ford, Singletary could be under owned with most eyes going to the backs in the other game.... he has a ppr floor, but unlike Ford, we know Singletary will play a lot more snaps, and has a ceiling to 30+ opps (hitting it twice across his 7~ true leadback/starts), I am more comfortable being over weight here than ford, but I lean that way with both. It is hard to get some true metric numbers on HOU WRs as they've all been in and out of the lineups, as well as stroud... I will note what I can... Collins in his 7 games with stroud post the bye, has a really food 27.5% target share, with a 10.77 aDOT, that combination, while not as great as Cooper, can keep him in the conversation to end as WR1 --- and if you want to go even further, there were really 3~ (because dell got hurt early) games in which Collins lined up without dell, in those 3 games he had a 35% target share/10.9 aDOT, that's pretty elite,, and there is a possibility we have no Woods/Brown in this one too. If Brown suits up, he is probably my #2 option, we've seen him have spike aDOT weeks, if he is out... Metchie/Hutchinson become almost floor value/upside options. I don't think I'll have a ton of schultz, but his metrics are good, and everyone will be going njoku, so I can see the argument in tourneys... he has a 19.5%/7.64 aDOT in the last 2 weeks so it wouldn't shock me to see him out perform at a cheaper price.
MIA/KCC
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tua has a good pressure rate situation (6th/12), and a good pass potential (5th/12). Mostert/Achane have a great run potential (1st/12).
Mahomes has a bad pressure rate situation (11th/12), and a meh pass potential (8th/12). Pacheco has a meh run potential (9th/12).
Dolphins TTR is T-10th overall (4th for the 2 game slate)
Chiefs TTR is 4th overall (1st for the 2 game slate) (good).
Pace of play is 5th (2nd of 2). O/U Rank is 4th (just below the CLV/HOU game)
Injuries - MIA - On D, CB Howard (88%)/LB Chubb (81%) are out for 2nd week, LB Baker (84%)/LB Van Ginkel (66%), LB Goode (11%) are out (and don't forget LB Jaelan Phillips has been out for 6~ weeks now too). S's Holland/Elliot are Q. On O, WR/RB Waddle/Mostert are Q.
- KCC - On O, still no RB/WR McKinnon/Moore, and WRs Toney/Ross are Q. T Morris (starter weeks 13-17) is out.
I want to make sure I start of and say I know the weather is frigid, and everyone will be playing the backs in this game (myself included), but the O/U is still really close to CLV/HOU's, and not many people are going to have the passing options here in abundance, so making some lineups where that succeeds (and maybe the run game fails or doesn't beat out CLV/HOU) could make a lot of sense from a leverage perspective.
If Mostert is in... I'll probably have to be off Achane, he just gets vultured, and is averaging 12.5 ppr fps in those 4 games (since his return). I'm not paying top dollar for that... but if he is out, all systems go. If Waddle is out, C. Wilson/Smythe become cheap punt/salary saver options, otherwise I'll mostly be off of them. If in, I think Waddle/Hill are interchangeable and I will sprinkle one of each in a few lineups.
In 4 games w/o McKinnon, Pacheco has had 3 games over 21 PPR FPs, averaging 22.33 opps/g (5.33 targets/g), The 4th game was game they trailed raiders throughout where he had just 15 opps (4 targets), still his floor/ceiling combo is as good as anyone's, and one of my favorite plays, especially with the broken LB core of MIA. This WR core may be the healthiest its been in awhile, which muddies it up to much. We know we can rely on Rice, and I don't think in this environment I will be on the deep threats of MVS/Watson --- if Toney is in, I don't mind punting him in some. Look I know Kelce has been disappointing, but again, we have a depleted LB core, we have all eyes on Njoku (will a fall back to Schultz), and Kelce since the bye (7 games) has a fine 20% target share/6.96 aDOT... would it shock anyone to see him produce in this situation, I don't think so, and I wouldn't just cross him off your player pool.
Sunday 3 Game Slate
PIT/BUF
Steelers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rudolph has a meh pressure rate situation (9th/12), and a bad pass potential (11th/12). Najee/Warren have a good run potential (5th/12).
Allen has a meh pressure rate situation (7th/12), but a great pass potential (2nd/12). J. Cook has a great run potential (3rd/12).
Steelers TTR is 12th overall (last). (6th for the 3 game slate/last) (bad)
Bills TTR is 6th overall. (4th for the 3 game slate)
Pace of play is 6th overall (3rd for the 3 game slate) (meh). O/U Rank is 6th overall (3rd for the 3 game slate) (bad).
- Injuries - PIT - On D, S Thompson (56%) is out for 4th week, LB Watt (82%) is out.
- BUF - On D, DT Phillips (44%) out for 4th week. S Rapp (50%+) is out. On O, WR G. Davis is out.
They moved this game to monday, the weather is a bit better but still not good, and DK has kept this on the SUN slate, and I'm sure they are going to have new tourneys for a 2 game monday slate too. In the 3 game slate scenario, we definitely want no more than 1 to 2 players from this games in a vast majority of lineups... in the 2 game slate, I have that lean a bit too, especially with the value/matchup in phi/tbb game.
From PITs standpoint, they have by far the worst TT of the week, and even worse when just looking at the 6 team slate (the 5th team, gbp, is projected 21.75 to their 13....) I can't stomach playing a WR despite the possibility of a ton of short yardage catch (which is good for PPR sites), but you have to love going to the other games first imo. The real debate, is Najee or Warren. while I will have a touch of both, I'll probably have a bit more Najee, we've now seen b2b 26+ carries on the ground, and last week he even got to 5 targets, which he hasn't seen more than 3 since week 10, oh and he also gets the goal line work. while being just $300 more than warren.
I think Cook can perform well, but he is too expensive for me when he has lenny/murray possible vultures, oh and a guy named J. Allen... so I'll be very underweight at best. I think Diggs goes very low owned, and the removal of Davis gives us some more added value, but I don't want to play him with Kupp/Nacua staring right at you, and the wind gusts are still a semi concern on deep balls... who I would go to are the cheap value WR plays, especially Shakir, He should see 80%+ of snaps, last week he had the lower aDOT of Diggs/Sherfield/Davis which I like for these conditions, and he is almost floor price. I don't hate Kincaid, I may consider him a touch more on the monday slate, but Knox is so much cheaper, and I'd probably be hunting for just a TD at that price point, which I'm fine with, On the Sun slate, its hard to like either, as we have value option in DET (if no laporta) that are probably in better spots than Knox, and then we have guys like Ferguson near Kincaid.
GBP/DAL
Packers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a great P/RB matchup.
Love has a good pressure rate situation (5th/12), but a meh pass potential (7th/12). Jones has a meh run potential (8th/12).
Dak has a good pressure rate situation (6th/12), and a great pass potential (1st/12). Pollard has a good run potential (6th/12).
Packers TTR is 8th overall (5th for the 3 game slate).
Cowboys TTR is 1st overall (1st for the 3 game slate) (great).
Pace of play is 4th overall (2nd for the 3 game slate). O/U Rank is 2nd overall (2nd for the 3 game slate) (great).
- Injuries - GBP - On D, S Ford (77%)/CB Stokes (86%) are out for 3rd week, CB Alexander (100%) is Q.. On O, RB Dillon is doubtful, and WR Watson is Q.
- DAL - Healthy.
If AJ Dillon is out, I am locking in A. Jones and moving on... in a must win game last week (without dillon) he saw an 82% snap count,.. and had 27 opps (5 targets) vs a stout CHI D, I don't see how that's not around floor range. If Watson is playing, I will always have a sprinkle of him, he is a higher caliber jameson williams, and that would leave us with Doubs/Reed... I know Wicks has been good, but he is priced hgiher than watson and wouldn't be playable.. Melton has shined too, he'd be the WR5, I guess it's good he is floor price, but idk how far down we need to go for salary relief, I wouldn't do this in more than 1 dart throw lineup if mass entering. Musgrave did come back last week but only played 15% of snaps.. Kraft still hit 90%... if you think that this continues holds true, he may be a steal at 3.3K and possibly others won't notice.
Pollard had 7 opps (0 targets) in the second half of the WAS game last week, in that time frame, DAL led by 3 to 4 possessions. In the first half he had 12 opps (2 targets), He has far and away been the most affected back in the league when it comes to lopsided game scripts (in both directions). I think he has weekly 20+ potential upside, but at the same time he could hit you with a 10 point max ceiling, I think he is worth the range-y outcome, I'll make sure to have him. Is Lamb just not in a weekly smash spot every week? Regardless of the opponent... his last 6 games of the year he had a phenomenal 35% target share, with an ok 7,53 aDOT, but despite lopsided games, Dallas was still in the top half of the league in terms of pass play%, so getting 35% of higher end volume is not only floor safe, but slate breaking potential too. The caveat is he is 9K, and we have some other monsters in this slate too, so can we afford him? Does this technically have the worst script of the 2 big O/U games? I'll obviously have some, but indirectly may be a little underweight. Cooks really separated himself from Gallup around week 9, in that time, he leads the WR core in aDOT at 13.81 and is 2nd in target share at 14%, he feels too cheap at 4.9K. With the returen of Hendershot in week 14, Ferguson still maintained a 20% target share, but his aDOT is not so good at 4.39... I know he has some TD equity, but I think I'm going for the TE value options in thi slate, so I can get the bigger and better WRs/RBs...
LAR/DET
Rams have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lions have a good P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation (2nd/12), and a good pass potential (6th/12). Kyren has a meh run potential (7th/12).
Goff has a great pressure rate situation (1st/12)., and a great pass potential (3rd/12). Montgomery/Gibbs have a great run potential (2nd/12).
Rams TTR is 3rd overall (3rd for the 3 game slate) (good).
Lions TTR is 2nd overall (2nd for the 3 game slate) (great).
Pace of play is 2nd overall (1st for the 3 game slate). O/U Rank is 1st overall (1st of the 3 game slate) (great).
- Injuries - LAR - On D, LB/DT/S Reeder(33%)/Brown(37%)/Fuller(93%) are all Q. On O, TE Higbee is Q.
- DET - On D, CB Jacobs (90%) is still out. DT Cominsky (56%) is Q to return after a 1 game hiatus. On O, no WR Raymond, no TE Mitchell, and TE LaPorta is Q.
I am not going to fully fade Kyren and his workhorse, smashing capabilities, but I obviously like the matchups/pricing of other backs compared to his, so I will be underweight... but if you feel otherwise, I won't stop you. In Weeks 12-17, which is post bye, and where the big 2 both played with eachother, Nacua/Kupp almost have identical target shares (25%/24.5%) but Nacua out aDOTs him significantly, 9.94 to 5.86. and they are practically the same price... I will have a bit more exposure to nacua, but I will be playing both. Ironically this is the same timeframe Robinson has became a name for himself, and he leads the 3 in aDOT at 12.75, and has a respectable target share of 18% someone with those metrics, and has seen 90%+ snaps in more than half of those game should NOT be 3.6K he is far and away one of the better cheap options on this slate. I may throw in higbee in a big game/team stack, but his aDOT is bad a 3.46, and he only has a target share of 14.5% in that same frame (minus the 1 game he missed), I'm going more DET/GBP TEs to begin with.. pass.
Montgomery is soooo hard to trust, in the 9 games since the bey, he has really lost the starting role, and had failed to even hit 40% of snaps in 5 of them (under 50% in 7). I know he could get TDs to salvage a 10+ point fantasy day, but he has to low of a PPR floor for me at that price... Gibbs is just $300 more and at least gives you safety with some explosiveness/ceiling potential, I'd much rather him.... If no Laporta and the Raymond injury, DET will be without almost 29% of their yearly target share.... Amon-Ra is already at 29% on the season.... I don't see how he doesn't have a floor of 14+ targets despite defensive scores/early lead... I like him. I think Reynolds is a fine option at 3.8K but his metrics are a bit worse than Robinson, and we now have Jameson Williams coming in with no WR4 threat at all, and he has a big 15.59 aDOT.. I will sprinke him in lineups for HR threat. I will mostly be going Kraft, but my secondary piece will be Wright if no LaPorta, as he is just 3K, and nobody else is there.
Monday Night/Showdown Slate
PHI/TBB
Eagles have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation (3rd/12), and a meh pass potential (9th/12). Swift has a good run potential (4th/12).
Baker has a great pressure rate situation (3rd/12), and a good pass potential (4th/12). R. White has a bad run potential (3rd/12).
Eagles TTR is 7th overall.
Bucs TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 5th.
Injuries - PHI - On D, no S Brown (38%+), S Blankenship (89%) is Q. On O, no WR Brown/TE Okwuegbunam.
- TBB - On D, DT Greene may be returning from IR.
I obviously want to take the passing options in this game, and now no brown is good for cheapies. We haven't seen Brown miss a game this year to get a good gauge on things to come, but what we do know is he had a big time 30% target share on the season that now has to disperse... all floors will riseeee. I won't spend to much time on Smith, but he obviously can be played. I think Quez Watkins should be the direct benefactor of increased playing time, and in his limited time this year, due to injury mainly, he has an aDOT almost identical to Brown. Zacchaues/Julio will most likely be the WR3... I guess i'd rather dart throw julio and his semi better TD equity, but I won't have much of either if that. I think Goedert will be the one I am most overweight on. Of the 4 teams, TBB has given up the most points to TE's, In weeks 14-17 when Goedert returned from injury, AND Brown played, he had a 24% target share, with a meh 4.93 aDOT... I would be shocked if he doesn't get to 10+ targets, and I do expect them to be playing from behind. Eagles just don't use swift to catch balls out of the backfield anymore... he had a stretch of 3 games with at least 4 targets early in the year, and then he had over 3 targets in just 1 of the 14 other games, and averaging 1/g in his last 4... and if the Eagles get to close to the goal line, it'll be hurts city... it stinks but I'll be very underweight.
I know the run game matchup is tough, but R.White is a bell cow with PPR safety built in... no other RB besides maybe cook will get even 60% of snaps, while White will probably get 75%+... I have no issues going here. Taking out Wk4 (where Evans got hurt early) Evans has a 25.5% target share, with a great 14.03 aDOT to Godwins 23% target share but 9.07 aDOT... we know the secondary has issues, I obviously want the big play upside of Evans all day, but I won't hesitate to play both/mix and match some in other lineups... Godwin has definitely seen the target up share tick to end the season, but Evans still leads in aDOT. If mass entering, Palmer is a good dart throw/salary saver... he has a 13% target share/11.5 aDOT over his last 5 games... it doesn't take much to pay off a 3.4K salary. Otton will always grade out good... we know the story, he runs a ton of routes, plays a ton of snaps, actually has a decent aDOT L5 (8.59), but for soem reason, he just doesn't get targeted enough... I'm trying my best to get goedert in lineups, and leveraging with kincaid in a couple... but where I pay down to knox, I may switch it up for otton in just a couple too.
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