DFS/Props Wildcard Weekend Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Saturday/2 Game Slate
LAR/CAR
Rams have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kyren~ has a great rush potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Dowdle/Hubbard has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is 1st (great).
Panthers TTR is 4th (meh/last).
Pace of play is 2nd (overall), and O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Looking at this from a 2game perspective, but if playing the entire weekend slate the prices are at least the same so it really comes down to comparing the additional player pool prices and finding the leverage plays. I have my mental issues on Kyren as I can see either side of the argument, I read that they were saving him for the playoffs --- and his L3 weeks, he started to creep around that 70% snap count number, but remember Kyren was a 80-90+ bellcow most of his tenure for LAR, but that increased snap count led to a 4.66 target/g avg, never less than 3 --- which is a decent PPR floor. Having said that, Corum never went away, as he avg'd 11 carries in those 3 games as well, and Kyren has only hit 20+ opps 5 times this year, 4 of which came at or before week 9. I also think the return of Adams is also the return of more RZ quick passes, hurting the backfield more. The full weekend slate, I'll hard pass, on this slate, I kind of want to be underweight and hope he fails but I understand the other options aren't lovely either. I don't want any WR3 with Adams back, but I'll lean towards mumpfield/smith taking that role, we will see for future weeks assuming they win. I know LAR now has 3 to 4 TEs, but even in Wk 18, it was parkinson that led in RZ targets, and that was a true constant even when Adams was in the lineup his last few weeks. I think he is a cute leverage option and may go under owned, the rest I'll pass this week. Obviously think Nacua has a huge ceiling, but I also think its his TD equity that goes down with Adams in (not parkinson), he obviously doesn't need TDs to hit 25-30~ FPs, but I think I'll still limit myself on him in a matchup that is kind of tougher on paper, and in a script that may slow the pace/pass performance a bit.
CARs run game feels like it has fallen apart over the L4~ weeks, and we have a bit of a timeshare that makes you feel a little more uncomfortable. Having said that, Hubbard hasn't hit even 10 total opps. since the bye (L4), I guess if mass entering it is a way to get different, but I'll pass. Dowdle unfortunately doesn't look so much different but I will say he is actually getting that PPR volume that hubbard once got, and he may not have the TD equity Kyren has, I do think he has a higher ceiling, and I want that in tourneys. At the end of the day, we have a 10 point underdog, and LAR have been more vulnerable to the pass to begin with... we want McMillan, but we also want Coker, for the first time all year, he played more than McMillan (over 90% of snaps), and are the 2 WRs I will consider. TE is a weird spot, I actually think Tremble is interesting, CAR typically been playing 3 TEs all year, but with Sanders on IR, Tremble hit over 90% of snaps as well -- it led to just a 13% target share, but he was targeted in the RZ, and maybe that is an increase/sign of things to come, there's maybe 1 TE we even semi like anyways (loveland?) on this slate.
GBP@CHI
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Jacobs~ has a good rush potential.
Caleb has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Swift/Monangai have a great rush potential.
Packers TTR is 2nd (good).
Bears TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 1st (overall), and O/U Rank is 2nd.
- We need to roster at least 2 RBs, and man this is a shaky situation too. Jacobs is apparently healthier than he's been since the injury, but idk --- over the last 8 weeks he has hit over 55% of snaps just once, and in that game was the only time he hit at least 20 opps (22/2 targets), so while the upside is there, and in tourneys we can't cross him off, I have my issues with his floor as well --- and lets add that even in all of those games, they were not using him as they did prior to his injury, as he never finished with more than 2 targets in that stretch -- nor did his backup Wilson, so I can see a reason to fully fade on full PPR sites. We hate the GBP passing attack because usually it can be one of 6 receiving options to consider... at least this week it looks like it should be 4 max. For me it goes Watson > Reed/Doubs > Golden, but I have no issues plugging in 2 of any 4 if you feel that way. Who I am contemplating most on this slate is Musgrave, I know he might dud out, he was pretty bad in his early games post kraft injury, but in his good 3 game stretch (wks 14-16), he did have a 16% target share with a 10 aDOT, which is a great TE aDOT, but in general, this metrics could be the best among TEs on this slate.
Swift/Monangai are truly in like a 55-60/45-40 split --- I know if you look at the last 4~ weeks, Monagai has been the slight leader in targets among the 2 of them, but I still like swift overall when it comes to PPR floor, and he has actually been more of the goal line back to in that time frame. Odunze practiced in full on Thursday, it's the playoffs, I don't think they are going to limit his snaps unless he really isn't healthy yet, what's weird is we really haven't seen this offense with a healthy odunze playing with the emergences of Loveland/Burden(even Walker) over the last few weeks. Unfortunately I think burden (and def walker) takes the biggest hit, but if mass entering I would still play him slightly. I say this because I think CHI will contain with the 2 TE sets, as both loveland and kmet saw 90%~ snap counts last week (and have practically been 65%+ each since week 10). Either way, we have our concerns, Moore has had so many floor games, Zaccheus looks to be slipping in metrics due to burden/walker, and this is all with Odunze's return sinking all boats further. I'm rambling, but in tournamnets I think you can pick a choose really all of them (including Kmet) and also have a reason to fade all of them. The only thing I will say, is Loveland last week hit 45% target share, even if that is reduced some, that still means he is capable of TE1 overall type numbers on this slate, and I dont think it looks to hard in terms of needing to find value this week.
LAR/CAR
Rams have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kyren~ has a great rush potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Dowdle/Hubbard has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is 1st (great).
Panthers TTR is 4th (meh/last).
Pace of play is 2nd (overall), and O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Looking at this from a 2game perspective, but if playing the entire weekend slate the prices are at least the same so it really comes down to comparing the additional player pool prices and finding the leverage plays. I have my mental issues on Kyren as I can see either side of the argument, I read that they were saving him for the playoffs --- and his L3 weeks, he started to creep around that 70% snap count number, but remember Kyren was a 80-90+ bellcow most of his tenure for LAR, but that increased snap count led to a 4.66 target/g avg, never less than 3 --- which is a decent PPR floor. Having said that, Corum never went away, as he avg'd 11 carries in those 3 games as well, and Kyren has only hit 20+ opps 5 times this year, 4 of which came at or before week 9. I also think the return of Adams is also the return of more RZ quick passes, hurting the backfield more. The full weekend slate, I'll hard pass, on this slate, I kind of want to be underweight and hope he fails but I understand the other options aren't lovely either. I don't want any WR3 with Adams back, but I'll lean towards mumpfield/smith taking that role, we will see for future weeks assuming they win. I know LAR now has 3 to 4 TEs, but even in Wk 18, it was parkinson that led in RZ targets, and that was a true constant even when Adams was in the lineup his last few weeks. I think he is a cute leverage option and may go under owned, the rest I'll pass this week. Obviously think Nacua has a huge ceiling, but I also think its his TD equity that goes down with Adams in (not parkinson), he obviously doesn't need TDs to hit 25-30~ FPs, but I think I'll still limit myself on him in a matchup that is kind of tougher on paper, and in a script that may slow the pace/pass performance a bit.
CARs run game feels like it has fallen apart over the L4~ weeks, and we have a bit of a timeshare that makes you feel a little more uncomfortable. Having said that, Hubbard hasn't hit even 10 total opps. since the bye (L4), I guess if mass entering it is a way to get different, but I'll pass. Dowdle unfortunately doesn't look so much different but I will say he is actually getting that PPR volume that hubbard once got, and he may not have the TD equity Kyren has, I do think he has a higher ceiling, and I want that in tourneys. At the end of the day, we have a 10 point underdog, and LAR have been more vulnerable to the pass to begin with... we want McMillan, but we also want Coker, for the first time all year, he played more than McMillan (over 90% of snaps), and are the 2 WRs I will consider. TE is a weird spot, I actually think Tremble is interesting, CAR typically been playing 3 TEs all year, but with Sanders on IR, Tremble hit over 90% of snaps as well -- it led to just a 13% target share, but he was targeted in the RZ, and maybe that is an increase/sign of things to come, there's maybe 1 TE we even semi like anyways (loveland?) on this slate.
GBP@CHI
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Jacobs~ has a good rush potential.
Caleb has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Swift/Monangai have a great rush potential.
Packers TTR is 2nd (good).
Bears TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 1st (overall), and O/U Rank is 2nd.
- We need to roster at least 2 RBs, and man this is a shaky situation too. Jacobs is apparently healthier than he's been since the injury, but idk --- over the last 8 weeks he has hit over 55% of snaps just once, and in that game was the only time he hit at least 20 opps (22/2 targets), so while the upside is there, and in tourneys we can't cross him off, I have my issues with his floor as well --- and lets add that even in all of those games, they were not using him as they did prior to his injury, as he never finished with more than 2 targets in that stretch -- nor did his backup Wilson, so I can see a reason to fully fade on full PPR sites. We hate the GBP passing attack because usually it can be one of 6 receiving options to consider... at least this week it looks like it should be 4 max. For me it goes Watson > Reed/Doubs > Golden, but I have no issues plugging in 2 of any 4 if you feel that way. Who I am contemplating most on this slate is Musgrave, I know he might dud out, he was pretty bad in his early games post kraft injury, but in his good 3 game stretch (wks 14-16), he did have a 16% target share with a 10 aDOT, which is a great TE aDOT, but in general, this metrics could be the best among TEs on this slate.
Swift/Monangai are truly in like a 55-60/45-40 split --- I know if you look at the last 4~ weeks, Monagai has been the slight leader in targets among the 2 of them, but I still like swift overall when it comes to PPR floor, and he has actually been more of the goal line back to in that time frame. Odunze practiced in full on Thursday, it's the playoffs, I don't think they are going to limit his snaps unless he really isn't healthy yet, what's weird is we really haven't seen this offense with a healthy odunze playing with the emergences of Loveland/Burden(even Walker) over the last few weeks. Unfortunately I think burden (and def walker) takes the biggest hit, but if mass entering I would still play him slightly. I say this because I think CHI will contain with the 2 TE sets, as both loveland and kmet saw 90%~ snap counts last week (and have practically been 65%+ each since week 10). Either way, we have our concerns, Moore has had so many floor games, Zaccheus looks to be slipping in metrics due to burden/walker, and this is all with Odunze's return sinking all boats further. I'm rambling, but in tournamnets I think you can pick a choose really all of them (including Kmet) and also have a reason to fade all of them. The only thing I will say, is Loveland last week hit 45% target share, even if that is reduced some, that still means he is capable of TE1 overall type numbers on this slate, and I dont think it looks to hard in terms of needing to find value this week.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday/3 Game Slate
BUF@JAC
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Etienne~ has a meh rush potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Jags TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 5th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Last time Palmer was out (wk13/14) coleman played the least among the 4 (Shakir/Shavers/Davis and Cooks~), but he was 2nd in target share (12%) -- still poor) and he tied those pass catchers for 1st in RZ targets, I don't like that they say he will be utilized more, as that diverts eyes to him, and realistically, he probably will play the least amount of snaps among the 4, so I think either way you take a stand and either full fade, or go much higher than the ownership. I'm not really interested in Cooks/Davis/Shavers unfortunately, but if mass entering and have a lot of exposure to Allen, you can plug and play at your own risk. Shakir is good for PPR formats, but pass on 0.5's. I kind of feel the same way with Kincaid as I do the ancillary WRs I mentioned, but it is more because I think his ownership will result in the #1 pairer with Allen, and Knox can easily outproduce his numbers on a game to game basis, and I'd rather lean into the leverage. Unlike saturdays slate, we have an abundance of RBs to choose from, i'm not sure how lineups work just yet to be able to get in 3 of the big guns but Cook will be the least owned amongst them, and we know he has slate breaking upside/TD equity, and he quietly had a decent PPR floor, avg'ing slightly above 3 targets over his L8 real games.
SFO@PHI
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 6th (last).
Eagles TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (last).
- I know Barkley/Cook could, but CMC is not only the most realistic RB that could hit 30+ opps, but that also coincides with the biggest PPR floor amongst them... he is kind of a must play imo and figure out the rest --- if you do fade him, you'll need practically every other premium priced player to hit because his floor is easily 15+ in almost every scenario minus injury. I am going with the assumption that Pearsall is out, in the 2 games Purdy played without Pearsall this year, CMC/Kittle/Jennings made up over 72% of the total targets, none under 20%.... I am sticking to 2 of these 3 in most of my lineups, if I want to do an onslaught, I will consider Robinson/Bourne as the salary saving pieces (sorry tonges, but let me see it first).
One concentrated offense to the next, and it is why I think this is the best game to bigger game stack, and find value pieces elsewhere. Over the L4 real weeks, the big 3 (Brown/Smith/Goedert) had a combined target share over 78%+, just like my SFO comments above, I will be sticking to 2 of these 3 in most of my lineups, leaning more on Brown/Goedert -- Brown because he actually has the decent lead in target share (31.8%), as well as leading in aDOT (12.26), but Goedert too, as he has a massive 8 RZ targets over those 4 games --- but I know Smith can outproduce Brown on a game to game basis, so I will not be excluding him. The only thing that is different with PHI, is Barkley hasn't been mentioned, and it is because he doesn't get the concentration of targets like CMC does to his offense, or compared to the 3 mentioned within this paragraph... having said that, I do want to mix and match a couple lineups with him + 1 pass catcher, as we know he has slate breaking upside, and I'm sure he is just one of 3 backs to hit over 80%+ snaps this weekend (maybe the only 3 to even get to over 70% depending on Jacobs/Marks health I guess).
LAC@NEP
Chargers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Stevenson/Henderson have a bad rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hampton/Vidal have a good rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 5th.
Pats TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 6th (bad/last overall) O/U rank is 2nd (good).
- It has been addressed, but I think the Chargers will need to throw the ball to have success. I took out Wk15 because Johnston didn't play but in LAC's L4, the Chargers have practically 6 guys that are at least at a 10% target share (harris is close), and none are at or above 20%, it is kind of why I want to one-off this side, but I don't hate the idea of Herbert +2 of them. I don't think we can trust hampton, his injury scares me, and we've seen Vidal take a decent amount of load off of him, and if Hampton is active, how can we trust vidals usage, I'll just hard pass with the studs on this slate that can absolutely outperform these 2 with their eyes closed. I would play the other guys as QJ > Ladd/Gadsden > Harris/Allen in terms of my priority.
Unfortunately this backfield is in a true timeshare, I obviously like Hendersons big play upside, but over his L3 he has just 1 total target, I know he scored twice vs a porous run D in MIA but it was also a 2nd half blowout, making me think it is still Stevensons backfield. In that same span, Stevenson has 6 total TDS, and 3.33~ targets/g, never less than 2, and this was in 2 blowouts, I think his floor is safer, and his ceiling is just as high. I will be playing the big 3 RBs as much as I can, but if I need salary relief, I'll happily pay down to Stevenson, and create leverage with henderson in a couple. I'm kind of torn on what to do with Maye and Co. While it feels cheap to stack his pairing options, they don't get a ton of RZ looks, Diggs is the leader amongst them, but is rarely the lead snap share guy (in fact he is usually 3rd~), Chism has risen (Williams a bit too), Boutte has came back, Douglas is the cheeky name that they design plays for but he barely sees the field any other time, I just don't like it. I think if you go in on the passing options, you go all in on a couple with Maye as strictly a contrarian play. The guy I like most for one-offs or mini stacks is Henry. He has 5 RZ targets over his L3, and no WR even has more than 1.
BUF@JAC
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Etienne~ has a meh rush potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Jags TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 5th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Last time Palmer was out (wk13/14) coleman played the least among the 4 (Shakir/Shavers/Davis and Cooks~), but he was 2nd in target share (12%) -- still poor) and he tied those pass catchers for 1st in RZ targets, I don't like that they say he will be utilized more, as that diverts eyes to him, and realistically, he probably will play the least amount of snaps among the 4, so I think either way you take a stand and either full fade, or go much higher than the ownership. I'm not really interested in Cooks/Davis/Shavers unfortunately, but if mass entering and have a lot of exposure to Allen, you can plug and play at your own risk. Shakir is good for PPR formats, but pass on 0.5's. I kind of feel the same way with Kincaid as I do the ancillary WRs I mentioned, but it is more because I think his ownership will result in the #1 pairer with Allen, and Knox can easily outproduce his numbers on a game to game basis, and I'd rather lean into the leverage. Unlike saturdays slate, we have an abundance of RBs to choose from, i'm not sure how lineups work just yet to be able to get in 3 of the big guns but Cook will be the least owned amongst them, and we know he has slate breaking upside/TD equity, and he quietly had a decent PPR floor, avg'ing slightly above 3 targets over his L8 real games.
SFO@PHI
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 6th (last).
Eagles TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (last).
- I know Barkley/Cook could, but CMC is not only the most realistic RB that could hit 30+ opps, but that also coincides with the biggest PPR floor amongst them... he is kind of a must play imo and figure out the rest --- if you do fade him, you'll need practically every other premium priced player to hit because his floor is easily 15+ in almost every scenario minus injury. I am going with the assumption that Pearsall is out, in the 2 games Purdy played without Pearsall this year, CMC/Kittle/Jennings made up over 72% of the total targets, none under 20%.... I am sticking to 2 of these 3 in most of my lineups, if I want to do an onslaught, I will consider Robinson/Bourne as the salary saving pieces (sorry tonges, but let me see it first).
One concentrated offense to the next, and it is why I think this is the best game to bigger game stack, and find value pieces elsewhere. Over the L4 real weeks, the big 3 (Brown/Smith/Goedert) had a combined target share over 78%+, just like my SFO comments above, I will be sticking to 2 of these 3 in most of my lineups, leaning more on Brown/Goedert -- Brown because he actually has the decent lead in target share (31.8%), as well as leading in aDOT (12.26), but Goedert too, as he has a massive 8 RZ targets over those 4 games --- but I know Smith can outproduce Brown on a game to game basis, so I will not be excluding him. The only thing that is different with PHI, is Barkley hasn't been mentioned, and it is because he doesn't get the concentration of targets like CMC does to his offense, or compared to the 3 mentioned within this paragraph... having said that, I do want to mix and match a couple lineups with him + 1 pass catcher, as we know he has slate breaking upside, and I'm sure he is just one of 3 backs to hit over 80%+ snaps this weekend (maybe the only 3 to even get to over 70% depending on Jacobs/Marks health I guess).
LAC@NEP
Chargers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Stevenson/Henderson have a bad rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hampton/Vidal have a good rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 5th.
Pats TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 6th (bad/last overall) O/U rank is 2nd (good).
- It has been addressed, but I think the Chargers will need to throw the ball to have success. I took out Wk15 because Johnston didn't play but in LAC's L4, the Chargers have practically 6 guys that are at least at a 10% target share (harris is close), and none are at or above 20%, it is kind of why I want to one-off this side, but I don't hate the idea of Herbert +2 of them. I don't think we can trust hampton, his injury scares me, and we've seen Vidal take a decent amount of load off of him, and if Hampton is active, how can we trust vidals usage, I'll just hard pass with the studs on this slate that can absolutely outperform these 2 with their eyes closed. I would play the other guys as QJ > Ladd/Gadsden > Harris/Allen in terms of my priority.
Unfortunately this backfield is in a true timeshare, I obviously like Hendersons big play upside, but over his L3 he has just 1 total target, I know he scored twice vs a porous run D in MIA but it was also a 2nd half blowout, making me think it is still Stevensons backfield. In that same span, Stevenson has 6 total TDS, and 3.33~ targets/g, never less than 2, and this was in 2 blowouts, I think his floor is safer, and his ceiling is just as high. I will be playing the big 3 RBs as much as I can, but if I need salary relief, I'll happily pay down to Stevenson, and create leverage with henderson in a couple. I'm kind of torn on what to do with Maye and Co. While it feels cheap to stack his pairing options, they don't get a ton of RZ looks, Diggs is the leader amongst them, but is rarely the lead snap share guy (in fact he is usually 3rd~), Chism has risen (Williams a bit too), Boutte has came back, Douglas is the cheeky name that they design plays for but he barely sees the field any other time, I just don't like it. I think if you go in on the passing options, you go all in on a couple with Maye as strictly a contrarian play. The guy I like most for one-offs or mini stacks is Henry. He has 5 RZ targets over his L3, and no WR even has more than 1.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday/Showdown Slate
HOU@PIT
Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Steelers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Marks~ has a bad rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Warren/Gainwell have a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh).
- Marks had 13 opps (3 targets) in one half of football -- and he was technically on pace for a 92%~ snap count. I think you absolutely should use him in a neutral to positive pass script environment --- I also think Brooks at min price (I know they say chubb is the RB2), but Brooks at $200 really just needs like 1 good carry, a catch, or anything to pay off. I am not taking Chubb, maybe Ogunbowale if you think PIT plays with a big lead, but again those 2 salary punts only if mass entering into a tourney, and don't over expose it. Stroud has been a statue over the L7 weeks, 21 total carries, 32 total yards (3 carries/4 ypc --- i'm sure a handful of those were kneels, but still), this leave him with a low floor. The matchup is good though, and he has nice stacking options, but I understand being underexposed to him. Collins feels like a must start, as he has probably the best floor on HOU, and 1 of 2~? for highest ceiling. I will note, his target share hasn't been the greatest over his L4/5 games, but he still is the leader in share on the team, and he comes with a big time aDOT of 15~, while being the only WR with a RZ target in that span. I'm not sure how much salary relief we need as Kirk is much less expensive than Higgins, but I know in 2 WR sets, we will atleast have higgins on the field, and he also have an aDOT as good as Collins, so he has the potential for spike weeks, in tourneys, you take the chance imo. Schultz is the only other player I'd consider (not noel/hutchinson/etc), on PPR sites he has a solid floor, and is tied with Collins for RZ targets, so there is equity there as well.
Thielen/Austin are off the table for me. Warren is interesting, only because I think he will be very underowned compared to the rest of the high priced options, but I understand why you don't want him, he won't get to 20 opps unless maybe they take a big lead, but then no ppr upside, and would need the TDs. Gainwell has such a better floor/ceiling combo, Rodgers trusts him, in 4 of L5 games (all the wins) he has hit at least 7 targets, and more recently than warren has hit 20+ opps (wk 15), he's also played 2/3rds of snaps in his L2 compared to warrens 1/3rd. Metcalf before his suspension, over his L3 he had a 24.5% target share, with a 12.7 aDOT, he at least doubled everyone in RZ targets too, and more than 9% of the targets open up with Washington out of the lineup, and Metcalf also missed 2 of Rodgers L3 games, and over his L3 games, Rodgers is averaging 42.33 pass attempts/g, never fewer than 39.... all of those games were neutral scripts mostly (lions was semi positive rush script). if we get 40+ pass attempts again, he as well as others can feast imo. MVS is interesting, he plays roughly 3rd/4th most snaps at WR with Metcalf back, but he had 4 RZ targets over his L2 with Rodgers, and we know he has familiarity --- I think he will be out there for no huddle/rz 2 WR sets more than we think. You can definitely talk me into Joonu, but give me Freiermuth with no washington in the lineup --- I know metcalf was out too, but in his L2 he has average a 70%~ snap share, and he is running routes, if Stingley shuts down Metcalf, there isn't many others to go to.
HOU@PIT
Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Steelers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Marks~ has a bad rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Warren/Gainwell have a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh).
- Marks had 13 opps (3 targets) in one half of football -- and he was technically on pace for a 92%~ snap count. I think you absolutely should use him in a neutral to positive pass script environment --- I also think Brooks at min price (I know they say chubb is the RB2), but Brooks at $200 really just needs like 1 good carry, a catch, or anything to pay off. I am not taking Chubb, maybe Ogunbowale if you think PIT plays with a big lead, but again those 2 salary punts only if mass entering into a tourney, and don't over expose it. Stroud has been a statue over the L7 weeks, 21 total carries, 32 total yards (3 carries/4 ypc --- i'm sure a handful of those were kneels, but still), this leave him with a low floor. The matchup is good though, and he has nice stacking options, but I understand being underexposed to him. Collins feels like a must start, as he has probably the best floor on HOU, and 1 of 2~? for highest ceiling. I will note, his target share hasn't been the greatest over his L4/5 games, but he still is the leader in share on the team, and he comes with a big time aDOT of 15~, while being the only WR with a RZ target in that span. I'm not sure how much salary relief we need as Kirk is much less expensive than Higgins, but I know in 2 WR sets, we will atleast have higgins on the field, and he also have an aDOT as good as Collins, so he has the potential for spike weeks, in tourneys, you take the chance imo. Schultz is the only other player I'd consider (not noel/hutchinson/etc), on PPR sites he has a solid floor, and is tied with Collins for RZ targets, so there is equity there as well.
Thielen/Austin are off the table for me. Warren is interesting, only because I think he will be very underowned compared to the rest of the high priced options, but I understand why you don't want him, he won't get to 20 opps unless maybe they take a big lead, but then no ppr upside, and would need the TDs. Gainwell has such a better floor/ceiling combo, Rodgers trusts him, in 4 of L5 games (all the wins) he has hit at least 7 targets, and more recently than warren has hit 20+ opps (wk 15), he's also played 2/3rds of snaps in his L2 compared to warrens 1/3rd. Metcalf before his suspension, over his L3 he had a 24.5% target share, with a 12.7 aDOT, he at least doubled everyone in RZ targets too, and more than 9% of the targets open up with Washington out of the lineup, and Metcalf also missed 2 of Rodgers L3 games, and over his L3 games, Rodgers is averaging 42.33 pass attempts/g, never fewer than 39.... all of those games were neutral scripts mostly (lions was semi positive rush script). if we get 40+ pass attempts again, he as well as others can feast imo. MVS is interesting, he plays roughly 3rd/4th most snaps at WR with Metcalf back, but he had 4 RZ targets over his L2 with Rodgers, and we know he has familiarity --- I think he will be out there for no huddle/rz 2 WR sets more than we think. You can definitely talk me into Joonu, but give me Freiermuth with no washington in the lineup --- I know metcalf was out too, but in his L2 he has average a 70%~ snap share, and he is running routes, if Stingley shuts down Metcalf, there isn't many others to go to.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thanks BAR --- all templates updated, Pace of play is of all 6 teams, o/u's go by slate. I just split all 12 metrics into great/good/meh/bad based off 1-3/4-6/7-9/10-12 --- so doesn't necessarily mean it is a bad or good matchup, but relative to the other matchups.
I'll start attacking notes tomorrow, maybe tonight if I got the time.
I'll start attacking notes tomorrow, maybe tonight if I got the time.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Piggy backed these off resident bills fans @Lexington 125 and @DOUBLEUP4LIFE but like them none the less.
Kincaid ov 36.5 rec
Cooks ov 18.5 rec
Gonna wheel cooks, he has outrageous odds to get to 40-50-60 yards! Only takes one big play and think he turning into the man for bills to stretch field.
Like Te’s against jags but always nervous Knox sees more targets, that said I think it was a great sign Kincaid played last week when most the starters didn’t.
Herbert ov 222.5 passing… only way I don’t see him hitting this is if chargers d does a number on maye and they can keep it conservative. Don’t really see that happening and not sure chargers be able to run real effectively on pats? Think this about the best possible matchup Herbert coulda asked for cause I think pats have the worst pass rush in the afc playoffs. I expect Herbert exercises some playoff failures here.
That’s all I’ve played so far. I want one of Philly WRs I just can’t decide between smith and brown, lean smith. Tempted to play Barkley but not sure.
Kincaid ov 36.5 rec
Cooks ov 18.5 rec
Gonna wheel cooks, he has outrageous odds to get to 40-50-60 yards! Only takes one big play and think he turning into the man for bills to stretch field.
Like Te’s against jags but always nervous Knox sees more targets, that said I think it was a great sign Kincaid played last week when most the starters didn’t.
Herbert ov 222.5 passing… only way I don’t see him hitting this is if chargers d does a number on maye and they can keep it conservative. Don’t really see that happening and not sure chargers be able to run real effectively on pats? Think this about the best possible matchup Herbert coulda asked for cause I think pats have the worst pass rush in the afc playoffs. I expect Herbert exercises some playoff failures here.
That’s all I’ve played so far. I want one of Philly WRs I just can’t decide between smith and brown, lean smith. Tempted to play Barkley but not sure.
Great stuff Bank!
That Herbert prop is gold unless San Diego gets up early and is able to play Manball all night long.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Had in my thread but I’ll post here
Kincaid has been targeted 3+ times in 10 games. He went over 36 in 9 of them
Kincaid has been targeted 3+ times in 10 games. He went over 36 in 9 of them
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I do think that the biggest concern, if they playing from behind I have no doubt he smashes this number. I do think it low enough even with a less than favorable gm script he could get there. Def think the path to least resistance is throwing the ball on pats, on paper their pass d numbers are very good but they played a whole bunch of scrubs and backups to scrubs. Geno, baker, even Tua roasted this pass d. Outside Allen they havnt played many legit qb’s the last 2 months.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Yea if gm script has them trailing I think he crushes that number. Im not so sure that be the case but think it would take minter’s d just totally owning maye for it not to hit.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Don’t like today’s games nearly as much as 2marro but gotta have some action.
Stafford un 262.5 passing
Higbee ov 24.5 rec
Higbee td +265
Parkinson ov 20.5 rec
Parkinson td +270
Corum ov 44.5 rush
Monangi ov 41.5 rush
Odunze ov 32.5 rec
Reed ov 36.5 rec
Watson td +150
Loveland td +220
Stafford un 262.5 passing
Higbee ov 24.5 rec
Higbee td +265
Parkinson ov 20.5 rec
Parkinson td +270
Corum ov 44.5 rush
Monangi ov 41.5 rush
Odunze ov 32.5 rec
Reed ov 36.5 rec
Watson td +150
Loveland td +220
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I like the corum play quite a bit, I think rams can control this game with the run gm and te’s. No sense having Stafford sling it all over the place when the panthers offense shouldn’t cause them all that much of a problem. I wouldn’t blame anyone for playing Williams over I’m just partial to Corum and think if he gets close to his 9.5 attempts the line at he gonna go for 50+. He has been over this number in 5 of last 6 w only exception being the Atl gm with a negative game script.
I have no doubt one the rams te’s going over but just didn’t like the idea of picking one, both being so low think it certainly possible for them both to get there as we have seen plenty of rams games w 2 their te’s getting beyond these numbers. Obviously I’m perfectly happy getting one of them in endzone at those prices.
If odunze 100% that number crazy low. Can’t imagine he be playing if he wasn’t fine.
Only issue with Monangi is when playing bears backs we kinda at mercy of Caleb being good on the drives he in. Bears run gm has kinda slowed recently and I suspect they make a real effort to stuff it down pack throats. The good is Johnson rarely abandons the run even when they get down so think his opportunities be there. He went for 50+ in both meetings despite bears trailing in both.
I have no doubt one the rams te’s going over but just didn’t like the idea of picking one, both being so low think it certainly possible for them both to get there as we have seen plenty of rams games w 2 their te’s getting beyond these numbers. Obviously I’m perfectly happy getting one of them in endzone at those prices.
If odunze 100% that number crazy low. Can’t imagine he be playing if he wasn’t fine.
Only issue with Monangi is when playing bears backs we kinda at mercy of Caleb being good on the drives he in. Bears run gm has kinda slowed recently and I suspect they make a real effort to stuff it down pack throats. The good is Johnson rarely abandons the run even when they get down so think his opportunities be there. He went for 50+ in both meetings despite bears trailing in both.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
great call on Love o1.5 
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Already posted
Cooks ov 18.5 rec (wheeled up to 60+)
Kincaid ov 36.5
Herbert ov 222.5 pass
Obviously id still play cooks at 22.5 or whatever, his alt prices have dropped significantly tho, glad i got those early. Kincaid up into mid 40s, I considered playing alt’s on him also so not like I’d be against him where he sits.
Allen ov 229.5 passing
Allen ov 1.5 td passes +103
Kincaid td +250
Knox td+340
Washington ov 52.5 rec
Etienne ov 14.5 attempts
Goedert ov 40.5 rec
Goedert td +190
I’ll prob add few more to later games here in a bit. Gl everyone
Cooks ov 18.5 rec (wheeled up to 60+)
Kincaid ov 36.5
Herbert ov 222.5 pass
Obviously id still play cooks at 22.5 or whatever, his alt prices have dropped significantly tho, glad i got those early. Kincaid up into mid 40s, I considered playing alt’s on him also so not like I’d be against him where he sits.
Allen ov 229.5 passing
Allen ov 1.5 td passes +103
Kincaid td +250
Knox td+340
Washington ov 52.5 rec
Etienne ov 14.5 attempts
Goedert ov 40.5 rec
Goedert td +190
I’ll prob add few more to later games here in a bit. Gl everyone
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Pretty much lean/like all of these, Parker scares me the most, but only way I'd have it. Gl
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
going a bit ham on the 430, already on the over, just think it'll be a shootout either way and these are some of the most concentrated offenses in the league.
A. Brown Rec Yds O68.5 -112
D. Goedert TD +190
G. Kittle Receptions O5.5 +107
J. Jennings Rec Yds O46.5 -110
B. Purdy Pass Attempts O31.5 -125
lean hurts rush yards over and CMC receptions
A. Brown Rec Yds O68.5 -112
D. Goedert TD +190
G. Kittle Receptions O5.5 +107
J. Jennings Rec Yds O46.5 -110
B. Purdy Pass Attempts O31.5 -125
lean hurts rush yards over and CMC receptions
These all look great.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
H. Henry Receptions O3.5 -133
J. Herbert Pass Yds O221.5 -112
Was looking for Vidal receptions but I don't see it. That's it for now.
Missed both Brock and Jennings props by a pass/catch pretty much, Kittle injury brutal, and the flow of the game just collapsed late 2nd, womp.
J. Herbert Pass Yds O221.5 -112
Was looking for Vidal receptions but I don't see it. That's it for now.
Missed both Brock and Jennings props by a pass/catch pretty much, Kittle injury brutal, and the flow of the game just collapsed late 2nd, womp.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
- The Steelers are another defense that has given up production to slot receivers (30th in total receiving yards allowed, 31st in yards per target allowed).
- Christian Kirk hasn’t been productive for the Texans this season, but this is a spot where I think he has upside, with Houston unlikely to have success on the ground in a plus matchup.
- Most routes in slot for Texans | Last four weeks of regular season
- Christian Kirk: 57
- Dalton Schultz: 36
- This is also a strong spot for Schultz.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Marks ov 54.5 rush/fairbairn 2+ fgs +158
Fairbairn 3+ fgs +169
I’ve done pretty well this season when I can get marks in the 50s. His attempts number is 16.5 if he gets close to that I expect he gets 60+., Steelers run d isn’t that great and think they will be far more concerned with stopping the passing gm. Not much to say bout fairbairn, Texans kick more fgs than any team and facing a Steelers d that 7th in red zone scoring. Pretty confident Texans move it between the 20s and prob settle a bunch, 4-5 attempts wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. Only once all year he hasn’t made at least 2 fgs, he has made 3+ in 8 of his 15 games so I’ll take +169 on that all day. 4 is +508 and think it worth considering.
Fairbairn 3+ fgs +169
I’ve done pretty well this season when I can get marks in the 50s. His attempts number is 16.5 if he gets close to that I expect he gets 60+., Steelers run d isn’t that great and think they will be far more concerned with stopping the passing gm. Not much to say bout fairbairn, Texans kick more fgs than any team and facing a Steelers d that 7th in red zone scoring. Pretty confident Texans move it between the 20s and prob settle a bunch, 4-5 attempts wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. Only once all year he hasn’t made at least 2 fgs, he has made 3+ in 8 of his 15 games so I’ll take +169 on that all day. 4 is +508 and think it worth considering.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
didn't write it up yet --- but I am drawn to him, strictly because he is priced sooo low on DK (priced with Hutchinson/Noel/Chubb). Having said that, he has only hit over 50% of snaps once in the L6 games (not including week 18) ---- and I'm curious if that note includes week 18, because that is most definitely the biggest weighted slot production he has had in his L4 with Hutchinson having to do more of the collins role that week (and/or higgins' role), but does it really take much to hit 20 total yards and cash that prop? I guess there is a high chance HOU plays with a run script/lead, and if he doesn't get his production before the end of first half he may not see a target. But in any neutral script, he has to clear 20 yards... any positive pass script, and he will crush the alt numbers too.
How do you see the game playing out?
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Pretty long winded comments in the showdown slate post.
Unless PIT gets up early, I think Rodgers is going to throw a lot tongiht. I think this team sees that the offense runs better with Rodgers commanding the quick short passes, and speeding up the pace (they've played a bit faster over the L3 compared to entire season)..
A. Rodgers Pass Attempts O33.5 -104
P. Freiermuth Rec Yds O31.5 -115
K. Gainwell Receptions O4.5 -139
A. Thielen Rec Yds U13.5 -112 (scary, but a play on more MVS/Austin playing time/being maybe the 4th-5th read at best when on field)
J. Higgins Rec Yds O29.5 -114
W. Marks Rush&Rec Yds O71.5 -110
N. Chubb Rush Yds U14.5 -115 (again scary, but despite being labeled as the RB2, I don't know how much time he will actually see)
I did play MVS TD small at +900
Unless PIT gets up early, I think Rodgers is going to throw a lot tongiht. I think this team sees that the offense runs better with Rodgers commanding the quick short passes, and speeding up the pace (they've played a bit faster over the L3 compared to entire season)..
A. Rodgers Pass Attempts O33.5 -104
P. Freiermuth Rec Yds O31.5 -115
K. Gainwell Receptions O4.5 -139
A. Thielen Rec Yds U13.5 -112 (scary, but a play on more MVS/Austin playing time/being maybe the 4th-5th read at best when on field)
J. Higgins Rec Yds O29.5 -114
W. Marks Rush&Rec Yds O71.5 -110
N. Chubb Rush Yds U14.5 -115 (again scary, but despite being labeled as the RB2, I don't know how much time he will actually see)
I did play MVS TD small at +900
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Scope I think it's a grind it out game and if Hou can run enough early to keep it balanced and get ahead, I would think they do the slow running game grind in 2h or the whole game is a grind and low scoring. Steelers have a knack of hanging in games though so tough one.
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Piece of cake?!
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Not smart enough to bet it
