DFS/Props Wildcard Weekend Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Saturday/2 Game Slate
LAR/CAR
Rams have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kyren~ has a great rush potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Dowdle/Hubbard has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is 1st (great).
Panthers TTR is 4th (meh/last).
Pace of play is 2nd (overall), and O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Looking at this from a 2game perspective, but if playing the entire weekend slate the prices are at least the same so it really comes down to comparing the additional player pool prices and finding the leverage plays. I have my mental issues on Kyren as I can see either side of the argument, I read that they were saving him for the playoffs --- and his L3 weeks, he started to creep around that 70% snap count number, but remember Kyren was a 80-90+ bellcow most of his tenure for LAR, but that increased snap count led to a 4.66 target/g avg, never less than 3 --- which is a decent PPR floor. Having said that, Corum never went away, as he avg'd 11 carries in those 3 games as well, and Kyren has only hit 20+ opps 5 times this year, 4 of which came at or before week 9. I also think the return of Adams is also the return of more RZ quick passes, hurting the backfield more. The full weekend slate, I'll hard pass, on this slate, I kind of want to be underweight and hope he fails but I understand the other options aren't lovely either. I don't want any WR3 with Adams back, but I'll lean towards mumpfield/smith taking that role, we will see for future weeks assuming they win. I know LAR now has 3 to 4 TEs, but even in Wk 18, it was parkinson that led in RZ targets, and that was a true constant even when Adams was in the lineup his last few weeks. I think he is a cute leverage option and may go under owned, the rest I'll pass this week. Obviously think Nacua has a huge ceiling, but I also think its his TD equity that goes down with Adams in (not parkinson), he obviously doesn't need TDs to hit 25-30~ FPs, but I think I'll still limit myself on him in a matchup that is kind of tougher on paper, and in a script that may slow the pace/pass performance a bit.
CARs run game feels like it has fallen apart over the L4~ weeks, and we have a bit of a timeshare that makes you feel a little more uncomfortable. Having said that, Hubbard hasn't hit even 10 total opps. since the bye (L4), I guess if mass entering it is a way to get different, but I'll pass. Dowdle unfortunately doesn't look so much different but I will say he is actually getting that PPR volume that hubbard once got, and he may not have the TD equity Kyren has, I do think he has a higher ceiling, and I want that in tourneys. At the end of the day, we have a 10 point underdog, and LAR have been more vulnerable to the pass to begin with... we want McMillan, but we also want Coker, for the first time all year, he played more than McMillan (over 90% of snaps), and are the 2 WRs I will consider. TE is a weird spot, I actually think Tremble is interesting, CAR typically been playing 3 TEs all year, but with Sanders on IR, Tremble hit over 90% of snaps as well -- it led to just a 13% target share, but he was targeted in the RZ, and maybe that is an increase/sign of things to come, there's maybe 1 TE we even semi like anyways (loveland?) on this slate.
GBP@CHI
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Jacobs~ has a good rush potential.
Caleb has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Swift/Monangai have a great rush potential.
Packers TTR is 2nd (good).
Bears TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 1st (overall), and O/U Rank is 2nd.
- We need to roster at least 2 RBs, and man this is a shaky situation too. Jacobs is apparently healthier than he's been since the injury, but idk --- over the last 8 weeks he has hit over 55% of snaps just once, and in that game was the only time he hit at least 20 opps (22/2 targets), so while the upside is there, and in tourneys we can't cross him off, I have my issues with his floor as well --- and lets add that even in all of those games, they were not using him as they did prior to his injury, as he never finished with more than 2 targets in that stretch -- nor did his backup Wilson, so I can see a reason to fully fade on full PPR sites. We hate the GBP passing attack because usually it can be one of 6 receiving options to consider... at least this week it looks like it should be 4 max. For me it goes Watson > Reed/Doubs > Golden, but I have no issues plugging in 2 of any 4 if you feel that way. Who I am contemplating most on this slate is Musgrave, I know he might dud out, he was pretty bad in his early games post kraft injury, but in his good 3 game stretch (wks 14-16), he did have a 16% target share with a 10 aDOT, which is a great TE aDOT, but in general, this metrics could be the best among TEs on this slate.
Swift/Monangai are truly in like a 55-60/45-40 split --- I know if you look at the last 4~ weeks, Monagai has been the slight leader in targets among the 2 of them, but I still like swift overall when it comes to PPR floor, and he has actually been more of the goal line back to in that time frame. Odunze practiced in full on Thursday, it's the playoffs, I don't think they are going to limit his snaps unless he really isn't healthy yet, what's weird is we really haven't seen this offense with a healthy odunze playing with the emergences of Loveland/Burden(even Walker) over the last few weeks. Unfortunately I think burden (and def walker) takes the biggest hit, but if mass entering I would still play him slightly. I say this because I think CHI will contain with the 2 TE sets, as both loveland and kmet saw 90%~ snap counts last week (and have practically been 65%+ each since week 10). Either way, we have our concerns, Moore has had so many floor games, Zaccheus looks to be slipping in metrics due to burden/walker, and this is all with Odunze's return sinking all boats further. I'm rambling, but in tournamnets I think you can pick a choose really all of them (including Kmet) and also have a reason to fade all of them. The only thing I will say, is Loveland last week hit 45% target share, even if that is reduced some, that still means he is capable of TE1 overall type numbers on this slate, and I dont think it looks to hard in terms of needing to find value this week.
LAR/CAR
Rams have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kyren~ has a great rush potential.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Dowdle/Hubbard has a bad rush potential.
Rams TTR is 1st (great).
Panthers TTR is 4th (meh/last).
Pace of play is 2nd (overall), and O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Looking at this from a 2game perspective, but if playing the entire weekend slate the prices are at least the same so it really comes down to comparing the additional player pool prices and finding the leverage plays. I have my mental issues on Kyren as I can see either side of the argument, I read that they were saving him for the playoffs --- and his L3 weeks, he started to creep around that 70% snap count number, but remember Kyren was a 80-90+ bellcow most of his tenure for LAR, but that increased snap count led to a 4.66 target/g avg, never less than 3 --- which is a decent PPR floor. Having said that, Corum never went away, as he avg'd 11 carries in those 3 games as well, and Kyren has only hit 20+ opps 5 times this year, 4 of which came at or before week 9. I also think the return of Adams is also the return of more RZ quick passes, hurting the backfield more. The full weekend slate, I'll hard pass, on this slate, I kind of want to be underweight and hope he fails but I understand the other options aren't lovely either. I don't want any WR3 with Adams back, but I'll lean towards mumpfield/smith taking that role, we will see for future weeks assuming they win. I know LAR now has 3 to 4 TEs, but even in Wk 18, it was parkinson that led in RZ targets, and that was a true constant even when Adams was in the lineup his last few weeks. I think he is a cute leverage option and may go under owned, the rest I'll pass this week. Obviously think Nacua has a huge ceiling, but I also think its his TD equity that goes down with Adams in (not parkinson), he obviously doesn't need TDs to hit 25-30~ FPs, but I think I'll still limit myself on him in a matchup that is kind of tougher on paper, and in a script that may slow the pace/pass performance a bit.
CARs run game feels like it has fallen apart over the L4~ weeks, and we have a bit of a timeshare that makes you feel a little more uncomfortable. Having said that, Hubbard hasn't hit even 10 total opps. since the bye (L4), I guess if mass entering it is a way to get different, but I'll pass. Dowdle unfortunately doesn't look so much different but I will say he is actually getting that PPR volume that hubbard once got, and he may not have the TD equity Kyren has, I do think he has a higher ceiling, and I want that in tourneys. At the end of the day, we have a 10 point underdog, and LAR have been more vulnerable to the pass to begin with... we want McMillan, but we also want Coker, for the first time all year, he played more than McMillan (over 90% of snaps), and are the 2 WRs I will consider. TE is a weird spot, I actually think Tremble is interesting, CAR typically been playing 3 TEs all year, but with Sanders on IR, Tremble hit over 90% of snaps as well -- it led to just a 13% target share, but he was targeted in the RZ, and maybe that is an increase/sign of things to come, there's maybe 1 TE we even semi like anyways (loveland?) on this slate.
GBP@CHI
Packers have a good P/RB matchup.
Bears have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Jacobs~ has a good rush potential.
Caleb has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Swift/Monangai have a great rush potential.
Packers TTR is 2nd (good).
Bears TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 1st (overall), and O/U Rank is 2nd.
- We need to roster at least 2 RBs, and man this is a shaky situation too. Jacobs is apparently healthier than he's been since the injury, but idk --- over the last 8 weeks he has hit over 55% of snaps just once, and in that game was the only time he hit at least 20 opps (22/2 targets), so while the upside is there, and in tourneys we can't cross him off, I have my issues with his floor as well --- and lets add that even in all of those games, they were not using him as they did prior to his injury, as he never finished with more than 2 targets in that stretch -- nor did his backup Wilson, so I can see a reason to fully fade on full PPR sites. We hate the GBP passing attack because usually it can be one of 6 receiving options to consider... at least this week it looks like it should be 4 max. For me it goes Watson > Reed/Doubs > Golden, but I have no issues plugging in 2 of any 4 if you feel that way. Who I am contemplating most on this slate is Musgrave, I know he might dud out, he was pretty bad in his early games post kraft injury, but in his good 3 game stretch (wks 14-16), he did have a 16% target share with a 10 aDOT, which is a great TE aDOT, but in general, this metrics could be the best among TEs on this slate.
Swift/Monangai are truly in like a 55-60/45-40 split --- I know if you look at the last 4~ weeks, Monagai has been the slight leader in targets among the 2 of them, but I still like swift overall when it comes to PPR floor, and he has actually been more of the goal line back to in that time frame. Odunze practiced in full on Thursday, it's the playoffs, I don't think they are going to limit his snaps unless he really isn't healthy yet, what's weird is we really haven't seen this offense with a healthy odunze playing with the emergences of Loveland/Burden(even Walker) over the last few weeks. Unfortunately I think burden (and def walker) takes the biggest hit, but if mass entering I would still play him slightly. I say this because I think CHI will contain with the 2 TE sets, as both loveland and kmet saw 90%~ snap counts last week (and have practically been 65%+ each since week 10). Either way, we have our concerns, Moore has had so many floor games, Zaccheus looks to be slipping in metrics due to burden/walker, and this is all with Odunze's return sinking all boats further. I'm rambling, but in tournamnets I think you can pick a choose really all of them (including Kmet) and also have a reason to fade all of them. The only thing I will say, is Loveland last week hit 45% target share, even if that is reduced some, that still means he is capable of TE1 overall type numbers on this slate, and I dont think it looks to hard in terms of needing to find value this week.
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday/3 Game Slate
BUF@JAC
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Etienne~ has a meh rush potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Jags TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 5th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Notes
SFO@PHI
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 6th (last).
Eagles TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (last).
- Notes
LAC@NEP
Chargers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Stevenson/Henderson have a bad rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hampton/Vidal have a good rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 5th.
Pats TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 6th (bad/last overall) O/U rank is 2nd (good).
- Notes
BUF@JAC
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Etienne~ has a meh rush potential.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Jags TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 5th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Notes
SFO@PHI
49ers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Purdy has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. CMC has a meh rush potential.
Hurts has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Barkley has a good rush potential.
49ers TTR is 6th (last).
Eagles TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (last).
- Notes
LAC@NEP
Chargers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Stevenson/Henderson have a bad rush potential.
Herbert has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hampton/Vidal have a good rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 5th.
Pats TTR is T-2nd (good).
Pace of play is 6th (bad/last overall) O/U rank is 2nd (good).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Monday/Showdown Slate
HOU@PIT
Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Steelers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Marks~ has a bad rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Warren/Gainwell have a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh).
- Notes
HOU@PIT
Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Steelers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Marks~ has a bad rush potential.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Warren/Gainwell have a meh rush potential.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh).
- Notes
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ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thanks BAR --- all templates updated, Pace of play is of all 6 teams, o/u's go by slate. I just split all 12 metrics into great/good/meh/bad based off 1-3/4-6/7-9/10-12 --- so doesn't necessarily mean it is a bad or good matchup, but relative to the other matchups.
I'll start attacking notes tomorrow, maybe tonight if I got the time.
I'll start attacking notes tomorrow, maybe tonight if I got the time.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Piggy backed these off resident bills fans @Lexington 125 and @DOUBLEUP4LIFE but like them none the less.
Kincaid ov 36.5 rec
Cooks ov 18.5 rec
Gonna wheel cooks, he has outrageous odds to get to 40-50-60 yards! Only takes one big play and think he turning into the man for bills to stretch field.
Like Te’s against jags but always nervous Knox sees more targets, that said I think it was a great sign Kincaid played last week when most the starters didn’t.
Herbert ov 222.5 passing… only way I don’t see him hitting this is if chargers d does a number on maye and they can keep it conservative. Don’t really see that happening and not sure chargers be able to run real effectively on pats? Think this about the best possible matchup Herbert coulda asked for cause I think pats have the worst pass rush in the afc playoffs. I expect Herbert exercises some playoff failures here.
That’s all I’ve played so far. I want one of Philly WRs I just can’t decide between smith and brown, lean smith. Tempted to play Barkley but not sure.
Kincaid ov 36.5 rec
Cooks ov 18.5 rec
Gonna wheel cooks, he has outrageous odds to get to 40-50-60 yards! Only takes one big play and think he turning into the man for bills to stretch field.
Like Te’s against jags but always nervous Knox sees more targets, that said I think it was a great sign Kincaid played last week when most the starters didn’t.
Herbert ov 222.5 passing… only way I don’t see him hitting this is if chargers d does a number on maye and they can keep it conservative. Don’t really see that happening and not sure chargers be able to run real effectively on pats? Think this about the best possible matchup Herbert coulda asked for cause I think pats have the worst pass rush in the afc playoffs. I expect Herbert exercises some playoff failures here.
That’s all I’ve played so far. I want one of Philly WRs I just can’t decide between smith and brown, lean smith. Tempted to play Barkley but not sure.
Great stuff Bank!
That Herbert prop is gold unless San Diego gets up early and is able to play Manball all night long.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Had in my thread but I’ll post here
Kincaid has been targeted 3+ times in 10 games. He went over 36 in 9 of them
Kincaid has been targeted 3+ times in 10 games. He went over 36 in 9 of them
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I do think that the biggest concern, if they playing from behind I have no doubt he smashes this number. I do think it low enough even with a less than favorable gm script he could get there. Def think the path to least resistance is throwing the ball on pats, on paper their pass d numbers are very good but they played a whole bunch of scrubs and backups to scrubs. Geno, baker, even Tua roasted this pass d. Outside Allen they havnt played many legit qb’s the last 2 months.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Yea if gm script has them trailing I think he crushes that number. Im not so sure that be the case but think it would take minter’s d just totally owning maye for it not to hit.
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Don’t like today’s games nearly as much as 2marro but gotta have some action.
Stafford un 262.5 passing
Higbee ov 24.5 rec
Higbee td +265
Parkinson ov 20.5 rec
Parkinson td +270
Corum ov 44.5 rush
Monangi ov 41.5 rush
Odunze ov 32.5 rec
Reed ov 36.5 rec
Watson td +150
Loveland td +220
Stafford un 262.5 passing
Higbee ov 24.5 rec
Higbee td +265
Parkinson ov 20.5 rec
Parkinson td +270
Corum ov 44.5 rush
Monangi ov 41.5 rush
Odunze ov 32.5 rec
Reed ov 36.5 rec
Watson td +150
Loveland td +220
2daBank
2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I like the corum play quite a bit, I think rams can control this game with the run gm and te’s. No sense having Stafford sling it all over the place when the panthers offense shouldn’t cause them all that much of a problem. I wouldn’t blame anyone for playing Williams over I’m just partial to Corum and think if he gets close to his 9.5 attempts the line at he gonna go for 50+. He has been over this number in 5 of last 6 w only exception being the Atl gm with a negative game script.
I have no doubt one the rams te’s going over but just didn’t like the idea of picking one, both being so low think it certainly possible for them both to get there as we have seen plenty of rams games w 2 their te’s getting beyond these numbers. Obviously I’m perfectly happy getting one of them in endzone at those prices.
If odunze 100% that number crazy low. Can’t imagine he be playing if he wasn’t fine.
Only issue with Monangi is when playing bears backs we kinda at mercy of Caleb being good on the drives he in. Bears run gm has kinda slowed recently and I suspect they make a real effort to stuff it down pack throats. The good is Johnson rarely abandons the run even when they get down so think his opportunities be there. He went for 50+ in both meetings despite bears trailing in both.
I have no doubt one the rams te’s going over but just didn’t like the idea of picking one, both being so low think it certainly possible for them both to get there as we have seen plenty of rams games w 2 their te’s getting beyond these numbers. Obviously I’m perfectly happy getting one of them in endzone at those prices.
If odunze 100% that number crazy low. Can’t imagine he be playing if he wasn’t fine.
Only issue with Monangi is when playing bears backs we kinda at mercy of Caleb being good on the drives he in. Bears run gm has kinda slowed recently and I suspect they make a real effort to stuff it down pack throats. The good is Johnson rarely abandons the run even when they get down so think his opportunities be there. He went for 50+ in both meetings despite bears trailing in both.