Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
LAR/DAL
Rams have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a good P/RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation.
Dak has a good pressure rate situation.
Rams TTR is T-17th (meh).
Cowboys TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 10th (meh), O/U Rank is 4th.
- Injuries - LAR - On D, DT Brown (40%) out for 3rd week. On O, RBs Williams/Rivers still out.
- DAL - On D, 2nd week w/o LB Vander Esch (88%). S Thomas (33%) is Q. On O, no TE Hendershot.
The rams backfield had 30 rushes, split 18-12 henderson/freeman, the snaps were 57/43... I guess if Rams build a decent lead semi early, Henderson could be optimal in a tourney but that is not only not likely to happen, but he really doesn't have a PPR floor either. Nacua/Kupp make up a massive 70%+ target share since kupps return. That's what we call concentrated offense, and something we typically want in DFS. Nacua actually leads 36.5 to 34, and his aDOT is slightly smaller at 9.23 to 10.68... while I think either can be one-offed, Nacua makes more sense at 1,100 cheaper (and something I pointed out last week that I didn't listen too). I will say Atwell still does play a significant amount, and while his target share stinks, he is very cheap and has a huge 15.38 aDOT... he could be a HR hitter. I don't want to play Higbee really, his target share is 14.5%, but his aDOT isn't bad for a TE at 6.94, and DAL is in the bottom half of FPs given up to TEs, and he runs a route on 80% of dropbacks (3rd best), at 3.3K I get it,
I spoke very highly of pollard on the monday night prior to the bye week. His metrics look poorer than we expect because DAL really has played lopsided games all year... well we finally got a close game throughout and he hit 80% of snaps, and had 22 total opps (7 targets), He will be in my player pool, I think the rams are a little more susceptible to RBs than portrayed. Not counting week 2 (where Cooks didn't play) Lamb/Gallup/Cooks all have played between 68-75% of snaps. I want to play it again on the lopsided play, but lamb really has been disappointing this year (to his standards),.. The target share based off how they are listed above is 18.83/19.48/14.94, aDOTs are 9.45/11.2/11.43. Cooks aDOT is equal to gallups with a lower target share... he is more expensive, and thus unplayable. Lambs numbers are also worse (again I think it is semi an anomaly/bad samples) but he is more than doubled gallups numbers, and even in last weeks close game Gallup had 10 targets, yet costs 3.4K... he is 100% a punt/salary saver option. Ferguson really reclaimed the TE role over Schoonmaker last week, playing a season high 86% of snaps, but it translated into just 1 target, he runs a meh amount of routes per dropbacks, and on the season his aDOT is 4.28... while the matchup looks good on paper, even higbee in this matchup is cheaper and in a better spot, think I have to pass.
MIN/GBP
Vikes have a great P/RB matchup.
Packers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Mattison has a good run potential.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. A. Jones has a meh run potential.
Vikes TTR is 13th.
Packs TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is T-4th (good), O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- Injuries - MIN - On D, LB Davenport (42%) out for 2nd week.
- GBP - On D, S Savage (90%+) is out, LB Campbell (75%+)/CB Alexander (90%+) are Q.
I do lean the over here, and both teams are in the top 12 for pass%.
Mattison had just 11 opps last week (3 targets), and maybe it was because they led? his snap% was just 53%, while akers had a season high 39% (and more touches).... I'll probably avoid altogether, but if you think MIN plays with a lead, I might actually lean Akers. Addison is still cheap enough and in his 2 games he had a 21% target share with a good aDOT of 11.07, I do think Osborn is a fine tournament pivot, as he is priced lower enough, will be owned lower, and has decent numbers (with more snaps) at 15% targets/9.73 aDOT. Hockenson is the man we want the most. In the 2 games without Jefferson he has a mammoth 27.5% target share (again on the team who is #1 in pass/run ratio), with an ok aDOT of 5.75.
I want to be ahead on the aaron jones train, but I don't think this is it... he still hasn't touched 40% of snaps, yet he did have 13 opportunities (5 targets) --- I'm not saying he can't be good, but there is to much risk AND he isn't cheap. In C. Watsons 2 full games from returning from injury, he has been pretty disappointing and I hope that lowers his ownership. As he has played the most snaps among the WRs, has the highest target share at 20%, and the biggest aDOT, not just of the team, but probably among WR1s at 17.67. This is arguably the easiest of matchups too. Doubs is practically the same price with worse stats, pass. If you want to take a stab on Reed in tourney formats where mass entering, I think it is fine, he plays about 50% of snaps, and has an aDOT of 11.17, but still, he isn't that much cheaper than Watson, so most likely it is pointless minus bigger game stacks. Musgrave is questionable, I don't know if I like his price at 3.5K, but he does play good snaps when healthy, and on the season, has a 15% target share/7 aDOT, so I get it. but until I do more research in TEs, I'm probably passing.
ATL/TEN
Falcons have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bijan? has a bad run potential.
Henry has a meh run potential.
Falcons TTR is T-17th (meh)
Titans TTR is T-26th (meh).
Pace of play is 16th (bad), O/U Rank is 16th (bad).
- Injuries - ATL - On D, LB Dupree (70%) is Q.
- TEN - On D, CB McCreary (87%) is out, DT Jones (22%) is Q.
Overall, just avoid this game. We have the worst pace/total, and 2 teams that both love to run, yet have terrible run matchups/hate to throw, yet have amazing pass matchups. If Levis was actually going to start, and vrabel didn't say both QBs will get snaps, I'd have interesting in a tournament dart throw, just incase they decide to actually throw the ball, like they should. You can also make the arguement that every piece of these offenses are kind of cheap, will be unplayed, and could pay off. Hopkins IMO has elite numbers on the year, 29% target share/13 aDOT... Pitts would be my other option, as his targets are slightly less than londons, but has a better aDOT, and is much cheaper --- I guess Bijans price is laughably low after last weeks debacle... and if he actually gets his true allotment isn't a bad take.
NOS/IND
Saints have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Colts have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Carr has a good pressure rate situation.
Minshew has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Taylor has a meh run potential.
Saints TTR is 12th.
Colts TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 1st (great), O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Injuries - NOS - CB/S/S/LB Taylor (84%)/Maye (100%)/Mathieu(98%)/Davis (95%) are all Q. On O, T Hurst is out, TEs Hill/Graham are Q.
- IND - On D, CB Brents (77%) is out, DT Johnson (25%) is Q. On O, TEs Granson/Woods out, RB Moss is Q. T Smith is out.
I'm hoping a matchup with the saints gives us some suppressed ownership, because I want to be a part of it. There is 2 ways to handle Kamara. First things first, in PPR formats, the guy is a savage, and in his 4 games has had ATLEAST EIGHT targets in 3 of 4, hitting 14 twice. Last week, in defeat, he had 31 total opps. My concern is his expensive price, his massive ownership, and not really seeing what the return of Williams will do to him when they are playing with a lead. Luckily for him, they are road underdogs, but obviously that scenario can happen. I'll obviously have him, but I may be a bit underweight. On the season, Olave quietly has a 26% target share, and a great aDOT of 13. those are really good numbers, and I think he is a good option. I will say, Thomas is good too for being priced much cheaper, he has a 21% target share and a good 10.63 aDOT. I can see the reason for either. I'll not Juwan Johnson is returning, it keeps me off hill/graham, but if both of them are also out, he is a really good option at 3K.
Ummm.... somehow taylor is cheaper after his 21 point performance, where he had 22 opps (4 targets), and play his injury return high of 50% of snaps... oh and there is a chance moss doesn't suit up/has an injury, I like it. There is enough of a gap between pittman and downs, that I understand if you want to pay down. I keep shouting this, and it keeps semi failing, but in the 3 full games with Minshew, Pierce has an ok target share of 14%, but a massive 18.06 aDOT, and actually leads the team in airyards... I think he will continue to be one of my tournament punts, and will reap the rewards eventually. Pass at TE.
NEP/MIA
Pats have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Dolphins have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
M. Jones has a meh pressure rate situation.
Tua has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Mostert has a good run potential.
Pats TTR is 21st (meh).
Dolphins TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 2nd (good), O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Injuries - NEP - 100 Questionables. T Wheatley is out.
- MIA - CBs Ramsey/Needham are returning. CB Howard (93%), S Holland (95%) are Q. On O, RB Mostert is Q.
Miami is returning good pieces on defense, but the patriots players are all so cheap, the pace is good, and they should be in a positive pass script, so you can't completely ignore it. At RB, Stevenson has seemed to settle in at 2/3rds of the snaps, and they finally got back to doing what he does great the last 2 weeks, catch the ball... he has had b2b games of 6 targets (like week 1), and the offense has looked better. He is just 5.4K, and on PPR sites, I think his absolutely floor is 11+ FPs... 2x'ing as a floor, with a lot of upside has me interested. with Juju back, it really becomes a crapshoot at most of the WR positions. Parker last week (w/o juju) played just 58% of snaps, while demario saw a season high 62% (his prior was week 1 when juju was back, but didn't have parker), with all 4 active, I have a feeling his snaps get reduced, unless he continues to shine... I get taking a shot in tourneys, but I won't have more than a share or 2 if that. I obviously don't really like parker as I mentioned above his snaps have been dropping and that was without juju... and then juju, what can we expect out of him? Weeks 1-5 his targets/aDOT both stunk. Bourne is the only one I'd have, his aDOT is good at 10.57, and his target share is 21% on the season, while being the only one consistently seeing hte field (4 of 7 games with 87%+). Henry/Gesicki both have really good TE aDOTs, Gesicki has actually carved a bigger role over the last 2 weeks, making Henry unplayable. I don't really want to play Gesicki either though, as he doesn't see much action, but he is almost floor priced, and a revenge game... I'd go here as a possible punt/salary saver option if needed.
Usually I like players with injury designations, and I do think MIA should be playing with a lead, but I can't see myself clicking Mostert at 7.7K, he is 600 more expensive after his dud last week, and $1,300 since the return of Ahmed, and he does not have the PPR floor upside the other RBs around him have (Barkley/Pollard/Kamara/Etienne). Should pass, but obviously he is super efficient, plays on the team that is favored/highest TT, so does he have a path to slate break? yes, just I'm not taking the chance. I will never tell you to not play Hill if you want too, he has elite numbers with a 33% target share, and an 11.41 aDOT... Having said that, he is the most expensive player on the slate, MIA are favorites, in the last outing Hill hit just 15 points (not even 2x'ing this big salary), and there is always the argument that Billichek likes to take your #1 option out of the mix. The problem is, you want a part of this offense, and Waddle is also expensive, despite metrics that don't match when comparing to Hill, and a back that may put him out of some of the game at any point.... ugh. Wilson/Berrios are both min priced, I think they are a fine punt/salary saver option, especially if it becomes lopsided in one direction, OR if one of these 2 games does reinjury their injuries from this week. I lean to wilson, as he has techinically played a smidge more the last 3 weeks, and has a massive aDOT of 13.86 (compared to Berrrios 4). Maybe instead of not liking the big dogs, and not wanting to go to the WR3s, we can hit Smythe at 2.8K. The positive? he can easily play 90%+ of snaps, and has a decent TE aDOT of 6.56. The negative? he has just a 7% target share. Still at 2.8K, if he gets a few catches, he can 2x without a TD. 3-36?, so if he can hit one, you're solid.
NYJ/NYG
Jets have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Giants have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Z. Wilson has a meh pass potential.
D. Jones has the worst pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Barkley has the worst main slate run potential.
Jets TTR is T-17th.
Giants TTR is T-25th.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is T-12th (bad).
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, CB Carter (69%) is Q. On O, C Tippmann is out. WRs Cobb is Q. & Charles is D.
- NYG - On D, CB Jackson (91%) is Q. On O, TE Waller is Q. T Thomas is D, plus a handful still out (Ezeudu/Lemiuex/Peart/etc).
Hall has been ramped up for a couple weeks now, and last played 66% of snaps, in his 2 games post jets comments of giving him a bigger workload, he's averaging 21 opps 4 targets/g, while being super efficient. He is just 5.9K, and in a smash spot. While I see a potential for the jets to win in a lopsided affair, there's a chance the WRs 3/4 are out, and Wilson/Lazard were already heavily played/utilized. I also think Wilson is too cheap too, as he has a monster 32.5% target share with a good aDOT of 10.35, if Giants keep it competitive, or flip the projected script, he could smash. I mention Lazard because he is sooo cheap, and despite just a 13.5% target share, he has a good aDOT of 13.3. I have to mention Conklin, he has an ok target share at 16%, with a good te aDOT of 7.48, at 3.2K, he has 3x'd in half of his games, so I get it.
In Barkleys 2 games since returning, with tyrod too, he is averaging 27 opps (4.5 targets), he is 8K, and in a really tough spot, but I wouldn't be shocked at a good performance... I won't have a lot of exposure, but I won't cross him off. One of these WRs will obviously beat out expectation/value because they are all so cheap, but I'm not playing a guessing game. Waller has the best target share in the league among TEs (23% - Kelce's is arguably better because he missed a game -- but still), while having one of the best aDOTs at 8.45, nobody on this team is as reliable, I expect a positive pass script, He can be played
JAC/PIT
Jaguars have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Steelers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Pickett has a bad pass potential.
Jags TTR is 9th.
Steelers TTR is 16th (meh).
Pace of play is 6th (good). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- Injuries - JAC - On D, S Cisco (89%), CB Campbell (63%) are Q. On O, WR Z. Jones is out, and T Little is Q.
- PIT - DT Heyward is returning, CBs Wallace (91%)/Porter (32%)/Pierre are Q.
Etienne has only played more and more as the season has progressed, hitting 88% last week, and has now had 3 straight games with 5 targets. He feels expensive, and if you like the WRs, you are kind of hoping he fails, I won't cross him off as he has had a ceiling game and 3 straight 22+ points, but I'm not completely sold here... although why pay up for barkley when you can have him.. hmm. In the 4 games without Z. Jones, Kirk has had a 23.5% target share with a 9,87 aDOT, while Ridley is at 16.5% but with a massive 15.24 aDOT... he is, for the first time this year, not only his cheapest price, but cheaper than Kirk.... I prefer him as my tourney option, as I think he is a bigger HR hitting potential, but if you prefer kirk, go for it. In those games Engrams aDOT is in the 3's, while his target share is fine around 22%~ I prefer other options at TE.
Out of the bye Najee hit his season high 58%! of snaps, wow... he did have 17 opps (3 targets), If you can guarantee those touches, he is a steal at 5.1K, but I can't trust it, plus this may be the product of playing the game with a lead, which they are not projected to do. Heyward has played 2 games without the Muth, and he hit 86% of snaps last week, he is averaging 3.5 targets, and 4.8 points, Jags are pretty bad against the TE, but there's a guy named McBride in a bigger boom spot, where this play just doesn't win out 99% of the time. In Diontaes return, Pickens still lead the team in snaps (by a good amount) aDOT & target share --- those numbers were an elite 35%/16.38, while Diontae was at 26%/9,83, while those numbers are good, Pickens is not that much more expensive, and will be in my player pool.
PHI/WAS
Eagles have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Commanders have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Hurts has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Swift has a great run potential.
Howell has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Eagles TTR is 6th (good).
Commanders TTR is T-22nd (meh).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Injuries - PHI - On D, CB Roby (45%) is out for 2nd week, S Evans (82%) is out for 3rd week, and CB Maddox (60%) is still out. On O, G Jurgens is out. WR Watkins is out.
- WAS - On D, LB Barton (100%) is out, S Forrest (99%) out ofr 3rd week. On O, WR Samuel is Q, and T Charles is out.
Aj Brown may be the #1 WR in the league (sorry Hill), he has a massive 33% target share, and a great aDOT of 13.19, if I can play him, I will. I think eventually Smith will outperform him in a game, but kind of like waddle (albeit not as egregious), he isn't that far gapped in price to brown t oconsider. But in tourneys, you can always make that argument to me... he still has a 22% target share, and 12.57 aDOT, so I get it. Not going to Zaccheaus/Jones. Not paying for goedert, rather go right up to waller... he has an 18% target share, and just a 5.49 aDOT, pass. I think swift always has the ability to slate break, and has a solid PPR floor. I just HATE how he will never score a close TD, so unless he rips one, he is pretty limited. Having said that, ripping a TD from a distance, is how we have boom potential, which is a recipe for a tournament boom option, I'll have him in some as leverage to the passing offense.
Br. Robinson will never be on my list, unless it is a smash spot/even lower priced... he is in a bad spot this weak for the run, and really doesn't have a nice ppr floor.. he also hasn't played over 55% of snaps since week 1... pass. On the season McLaurins numbers are better than Dotsons (21.5% vs 16.5%, AND 11.02 vs 8.38 aDOT), and the price isn't gapped enough. He would be my bringback option. Thomas is kind of cheaper than I though, and he has an ok target share at 17%~, with an ok aDOT of 6.66, I'm fine if you want to go here for a semi-lower priced TE.
HOU/CAR
Texans have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Stroud has the best pressure rate situation, and a good pass situation.
Young has a bad pressure rate situation.
Texans TTR is 7th (good).
Panthers TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Injuries - HOU - On D, DT/S Rankins (61%)/Murray (43%) are out, while CB Stingley (100%) is still out. On O, no TE Jordon/WR Woods.
- CAR - On D, S Bell (100%) is out for 2nd week, LB Gross-Matos (50%)/S Chinn (52%) are out. LB Thompson (100%) is still out. S Woods (85%+)/LBs Luvu (86%)/Burns (80%) are both Q.
Ummmm... look at the center of the field possibly missing for CAR, Stroud already has a sexy matchup, and we have a semi more concentrated offense with no Woods --- yes please. On the season, Woods has a 22% target share... this is going to be dispersed the most to 3 people --- Collins/Dell/Schultz. Lets focus WR first. Collins already has a 21% target share, with a good aDOT of 11.55, Dells is ok at 14%, but a bit better aDOT of 12.89, both look undervalued, and I'm fine with either, but the price gap isn't big, and I'd much rather collins. Schultz has a 17% target share, with a 7.24 aDOT, he has actually seen that ramp up in his last 2 games, and already has 7 RZ targets on the season --- Woods was second on the team at 6... he has good TD equity, has seen more involvement, and should have elevated expectations (even if slightly) with woods out, he is a fine option. I will not play piece, i will not play pierce, i will not play pierce. He is in his best spot of the year, and probably the season, but his playing time sucks, actually saw 33% last game, and has 0 ppr floor, if he sucks today, he will have officially lost his starting job (if he hasn't already). Now if you think the trend of singletary being the starter is a thing, I actually can see a reason to take a dart throw in a lineup or two at 4.4K.
Thielen is the highest he has been priced... I've faded him practically all year (wrongfully) and I'm going to do it again, solely because at 6.6, I'd rather have olave/pittman/smith/wilson (maybe others). He arguably has target shares like them (27%), but his aDOT is the worst at 7.81, In the 4 games Mingo was fully healthy with Thielen, He has had a massive aDOT differnce 12.13 to thielens 7.41, while the target share is 17.5% to 28%, I'd still rather take the 3.4K option over the 6.6K option looking at those stats, he's also played more snaps in those games. Hursts aDOT is good at 7.09, but hjust a 10% target share... my only argument for him is a tourney pivot off the popular mcbride. Idk what to do at RB, but if you guess right, you'll be very happy. Both backs are under 5K, I still think its sanders to lose for now, and this will be his softest matchup of the year...I lean that direction, but understand if you want to full fade.
4PMs/Main Slate Cont.
CLV/SEA
Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Seahawks have a bad P/RB matchup.
Watson? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Ford? has a bad run potential.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation. Walker has a meh run potential.
Browns TTR is T-22nd (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 11th.
- Injuries - CLV - On D, LB Takitaki (54%) is Q. On O, WR Goodwin/RB Ford are Q.
- SEA - On D, LB Nwosu (67%) is out, S Adams (90%+) is Q. On O, G Haynes id doubtful, WR Lockett is Q.
I'll be underweight this game really as the defenses seem to be better than the opposiing offenses. Having said that,
Ford was on track for a breakout game last week, then he got hurt... if he plays this weak, I think he isn't a bad play, and actually has had some PPR safety, they did not commit to hunt posti njury, and used pierre strong, so if he's out, I think I still avoid this backfield (and even still --- I'm not playing much of ford if any but wanted to make note). Weeks 6/7 with Walker, Cooper has had a good target share at 24%, and an aDOT of 14.19, he will go virtually unowned, and they are projected to be in a good pass script --- I actually don't hate it for tournaments. Moore's price is getting disrespectfully low, his aDOT sucks at 7.86 with walker, but a 20% target share gives him a PPR fllor, and one-offing him or cooper doesn't feel dumb. Njokus aDOT is trash at 3.23, and he isn't cheap enough, pass.
Walker is a slate breaker/work horse, last week he had 29 opps (3 targets), so if you have conviction, go for it, I just would rather have Etienne/Kamara/Pollard in their matchups. Metcalf seems to expensive, but he has a massive aDOT at 13.45, and people seem to never love him, obviously a big bump if Lockett is out. With both in JSN is a no go, but will probably be my most wanted option on this team if Lockett is out, pass at TE.
KCC/DEN
Chiefs have a great P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a good pressure rate situation, and the best pass potential (Albeit still skewed). Pacheco has a good run potential.
R. Wilson has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good run potential.
Chiefs TTR is 2nd (great).
Broncos TTR is 20th (meh).
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - KCC - On D, LB Bolton (85%) is out. On O, no WR James/Ross.
- Den - On O, no WR Johnson.
I think the weather is really going to suppress ownership here, so I'm fighting with the idea of going a bit overweight, and fwiw, the total is still 46 (where it was wed morning~).
I think of all players, Pacheco comes in with the highest ownership, he does seem a bit undervalued, and has been involved in the pass game of late, I don't mind if you want to go here, but I'm fading the spot, as I like Hall/Bijan/Taylor/Swift a bit more in this range. The problem is what WR do we play? With Watson back, it keeps me off of him and MVS. Toney is just unclickable --- playing 19% of snaps last week. I think it becomes Moore/Rice who you consider. Moore looked to be trending down, but actually played 60% of snaps last week, and he is 3.2K, while Rice was at 59%, and 5K. I think everyone will flock to rice (pun intended) and I agree it is who I'd rather play (and am in redraft leagues), I think in tournaments I'd rather take Moore at a much cheaper price/ownership. Take out Wk1 and Kelce has a 26.5% target share, and a good te ADOT of 7.24... I will never talk you out of playing him, as nobody has the ceiling he does.. he is the #1 target playing with the #1 QB in the league BUT... he is 8.4K, and taylor swift will not be at the game (sorry), I think I'd rather an AJ Brown type over Kelce, but I may still take him in a lineup or 2.
I think Sutton/Jeudy are interchangeable as they have a 23.5%/21% target shares, and 10.05/11.74 aDOTs. In a game stack I'd play whoever is projected lower ownership. Lean is to Jeudy. I'm probably poassing at TE, but Trautman is practically floor price, and has an aDOT of 7.69, while seeing the field a ton, so if you wanted to dart throw, so be it. Jav. Williams played a season high 53% of snaps, giving him a nice 19 opp game (4 targets), He is just 5.2K, and if this is a sign to come, his price is only going to go upwards. I'm fine with him.
BAL/ARI
Ravens have a great P/RB matchup.
Cards have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a great pass potential. Gus Bus? has a great run potential.
Dobbs has a bad pass potential.
Ravens TTR is 3rd (good).
Cards TTR is 24th (meh).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is T-5th.
- Injuries - BAL - On D, S Williams (63%) is out for 2nd week, a few secondary injuries out for 4+ weeks. LB Oweh is Q.
- ARI - On D, no DE Strong (56%), LB Barnes (61%). S/CB Thompson (87%)/Hamilton Sr. (80%) are Q. On O, no T Wilkinson. no TE Ertz, WR Dortch is Q.
Not only do gusbus/Hill split time, rookie Mitchell looks to be playing this week too. Oh and Lamar can and probably will vulture, pass. Flowers is a smash spot option at 5.6K. I mentioned a few weeks ago now how his aDOT is artificially low from his first 2~ weeks, and his target share looks inflated with OBJ/Bateman missing time mid year. Well on the season he has a 28% target share, and an aDOT of 8.43, in the last 3 weeks, with all WRs healthy, it is 27%, and an aDOT of 11.16... that combination under 6K, is a joke and I'll have me a lot of him. In that same 3 game timeframe Andrews has a 24% target share, and a great aDOT of 8,91, Those numbers are just as good as Kelce's, and he is in a better environment + cheaper. Yeah buddy.
Demercado is 4.8K, and played 80% of snaps last week (fuck you week 6....as I may have dropped him prematurely in at least 1 league). It gave him 18 opps, (5 targets), that is super solid numbers for under 5K, and I think the target floor should persist with a negative game script. Hollywood is an even greater example than flowers for WRs that should not be under 6K. He has a massive 27% target share, with a great aDOT of 12.88.. Moore is unplayable and has a 1.93 aDOT, Wilson is cheaper than him, plays more, and has an aDOT of 13.37, I'd only use Wilson at most as a dart throw/salary saver in a lineup if mass entering, This will be the first week McBride will be without Ertz (and Swaim), but weekly the Cards have been using 3 TEs, and the matchup is poor, and everyone in tourneys is going here as an option. I will be underweight, but understand the logic of course.
CIN/SFO
Bengals have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Burrow has a bad pass potential.
Purdy has a good pass potential. CMC has a great run potential.
Bengals TTR is T-14th.
49ers TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 15th (meh). O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- Injuries - CIN - On O, RB Brown is out.
- SFO - On O, no WR Deebo, and T Williams is Q.
The pace of this game is actually really slow, and 49ers D is A LOT healthier than it was last week. If T Williams is out, it only hurts the offense (with deebo), In general, I think I want to fade this game when it has one of the bigger o/u's, and those signs pointing to a higher chance (than other games) of not hitting their own expectations --- if that makes sense. But either way,
Mixon plays over 70%+ of snaps, he has hit atleast 4 targets in 4 of his 6 games... nobody is talking about him, and somehow he is under 6K, which I don't think anyone would have guessed barring a drop in snaps (which hasn't happened), I kind of like him. We've already seen Chase as a slate breaker, but a few things, he is super expensive, his boom game was without higgins (who is coming in healthy), and like mentioned earlier SFO D is as healthy as it's ever been. My gut says to fade hard when you can have guys like brown for similar price. In his first 3 weeks, in a full allotment of snaps, Higgins graded out better than Chase, and we are getting him under 6K, If I go here, he is the receiving piece I'd want in this game. pass at TE.
CMC is a fucking savage. He comes in last week with injury designations and plays 100% of snaps, and quietly gets over 20+ FPs. If you want to play him, go for it. Somehow Rayray, even playing from behind, saw his snaps go to 36% (with no Bell, and a full game without deebo ---- the week prior where deebo got hurt in game, rayay got to 71%, WTF SFO...). I cant trust the floor price rayray, but watch him go right back up to 70%+ and piss me off... anyways. Jennings actually played really well and had a 31% target share, with an ok aDOT of 7.78, if that even falls of a little bit, he is really cheap in the 3K's. W/o Deebo last week, Aiyuk saw his aDOT drop to 8.67, which is not what we pay for at 7K (especially with a target share drop to 21%), I'm passing here --- in a tougher matchup, and possibly a worse script than last week. I like way to many TEs this week (kind of like last week), and Kittle really stands out. He had a really good target share of 24% without deebo, and a MASSIVE 12.29 aDOT.... benglas worst position/FPs given up is to the TE position.... and he may get overlooked with Hock/Andrews above him, and Waller/Goedert/Engram below him. He is looking like one of my favorites.
