DFS/Props Week 5 2024 Discussion
- Thread starter ScopeY
- Start date
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Thursday Night Showdown Slate
TBB@ATL
Bucs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a great RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Cousins has a bad pressure rate situation. Bi. Robinson has a great run potential.
Pace of play is 5th (meh) of the whole weekend
- Notes
TBB@ATL
Bucs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a great RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Cousins has a bad pressure rate situation. Bi. Robinson has a great run potential.
Pace of play is 5th (meh) of the whole weekend
- Notes
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday Morning Showdown Slate
NYJ@MIN
Jets have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hall/Allen have a bad run potential.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation. Jones has a great run potential.
Pace of play is T-10th (meh) of the whole weekend.
- Notes
NYJ@MIN
Jets have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Vikings have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hall/Allen have a bad run potential.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation. Jones has a great run potential.
Pace of play is T-10th (meh) of the whole weekend.
- Notes
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Gotta love the dirty birds run game tonight. Actually lean more to Algiers w the low number seeing how this backfield has become somewhat split. Algiers getting 35 yards feels like a slam dunk. I actually think Bijan could very well go over 60.5 also but think I prefer his receiving over 26.5, backs have done really well out the backfield against Tampa and Bijan one the best.
I could see atl go for 150+ on ground which is the only thing that makes me hesitant on Bucs props. Will Bucs get enough opportunities for him to put up 240+? Bucky Irving seems to be starting to be the preferred back, 44.5 is not a big number if he gets 10-12 carries.
I could see atl go for 150+ on ground which is the only thing that makes me hesitant on Bucs props. Will Bucs get enough opportunities for him to put up 240+? Bucky Irving seems to be starting to be the preferred back, 44.5 is not a big number if he gets 10-12 carries.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Bijan rush/rec yds is my favorite play
2daBank
Voice of Reason
90.5 ain’t bad, lot of times I don’t like the rush+rec cause they tack on a extra 10 or so yards from the seperate totals, this only 3-4 yards higher tho. Now I’m torn between his rec number or playing this, lol.
I like Algiers rushing a lot, they not gonna stop giving him work on a short week, I expect they both have success on the ground which should mean plenty of carries to go around. 36.5 is nothing assuming he gets at least 8-9 carries. They have his number of rushes at 8.5 so sign me up!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not even going to watch and I have Prime but hate streaming when there are much more important games like my Brewers and the game in El Crapo
Toggling at a moment's notice doesn't work once we go into Streamland. Might put it on the laptop but not sure I care enough about the game to do it
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Guessing 75% of my wagers are live and streaming does nothing for that so I typically "watch" games via the live betting scoreboard
When it comes to props I just open the gamecast on Yahoo Sports for updates
Watching games and live betting don't go together at all these days, even live tennis is a good 2 points behind on cable most of the time. Can't stand the delay.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Yeah my tv is always on for the noise even when I sleep. Silence is deafening for me but for live wagering it holds no water. If I actually get into a game anymore (ie ISU, Cards, Suns, Snakes) as a fan I have to get away from betting sites and apps. Somehow I still enjoy the nostalgia as a fan, like remember where you were when? type shit but it's a lot more rare. Mostly because the only team I follow that wins anything meaningful is Man City and yes, I'll always remember where I was when they win shit.
Atlanta going to run this week? Last week was funny.
Does anyone know what teams run the most man and press? After seeing Nico light up Jax last week this is something that must be worth pursuing
Losing Dalman might be hard to adjust to? But then again I thought Ragnow‘s loss would hurt. But every team is different.
Atlanta offense was not good last week.
Luckier win for sure.
15 totals carries.
Reminds me of Minnesota Cousins teams not using Dalvin.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Whole reason why I'm doing Bijan rush/rec is I firmly believe that he rips at least one 30 yarder but have no clue if it's on the ground or through the air
AS for 2nd string RBs, it's been a thing for years now. With 17 games and possibly 2-3 more in the postseason you simply can not expect a stud RB to stay healthy if he's getting 75% of the carries. It's unrealistic.
AS for 2nd string RBs, it's been a thing for years now. With 17 games and possibly 2-3 more in the postseason you simply can not expect a stud RB to stay healthy if he's getting 75% of the carries. It's unrealistic.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I would think matchup dictates yes but wtf do I know? Maybe they like having the defense on the field for 20 or so extra plays! Do they really want cousins dropping back against blitz all night? Running against a bad run d feels like the answer to me.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Played it out in my head and think we might get a 12 possession game
Bowles defenses blitz over and over and if you choose not to run against that you'll likely fail
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pretty sure atl runs about as much zone as anyone, think that bodes well for baker, he way better vs zone than man, I’d expect a bunch of Godwin in the slot picking zone apart. Baker ov 22.5 completions seems promising, lean Godwin ahead of Evans cause the zone, Godwin is 9 yards higher but not sure that enough? Godwin receptions and yards I think solid, Bucs missing some WRs also so maybe more on him and Evans?
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
CLV@WAS
Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Watson has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Daniels has a good pass potential. Br. Robinson has a good rush potential.
Browns TTR is 14th.
Commanders TTR is T-8th (good).
Pace of play is 9th (meh), O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Browns quietly throwing at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL, Jerome Ford doesn't feel like a nice click, but he plays over 75% of snaps, and in 2 of his 4 games he has hit 7 targets, that shows he has some PPR upside. With no TDs he finished with 15+ FPs., he's a good pivot off what should be a popular pass attack. But that won't keep me off them either I just want to be underweight especially IF Njoku suits up. Cooper/Jeudy are priced at a spot where either can be considered, Cooper 27%/12.7, and Jeudy 22%/11.8 stats.
Don't really love Br. Robinson as he is approaching the top half of the 6K range, coming in with an injury, and Ekeler is back. If he's out, I'll have interest in Ekeler in the 5K range. McLaurins last 3 games he has a 30% target share WITH an 11.75 aDOT... fire him up with confidence. Ertz is a fine punt option at 3.8K.
CAR@CHI
Panthers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Dalton has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation.
Panthers TTR is 16th (meh).
Bears TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 8th (meh).
- Hubbards 2 games with Dalton, 26 and 22 opps, 4.5 targets/g, and saw a season high 74% of snaps last week in a losing effort, at 6.1K he is a good play, Johnson grades out SO good, with a 35.5% target share/10.5 aDOT he should be priced over 7K, at 6.1K too, sign me up. Legette/Mingo are the WR2/3, Mingo is unplayable, and I feel like I'd like legette a touch lower, as his aDOT is below 9, and his target share is just 17% but I can be talked into it. Tremble has the otton effect, out there a lot, but not really getting targetted, his 8.6 aDOT is nice for a TE, ok punt option.
Lets go swift baby! everyone discussing Roschon (who I did grab in a couple leagues) and swift comes out with a 23 opp (7! target) game, he has such a safe floor/ceiling combo, in the 5K range he makes a lot of sense. None of these WRs have a double digit aDOT, Moore/Allen are ok from a target%, but the bears as a favorite could limit opportuntiies. In a winning effort last week, they ran the ball the most of any point this season, play them if you think the CAR wins/leads.
BAL@CIN
Ravens have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lamar has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Henry has a great run potential.
Burrow has a great pass potential. Moss has a meh run potential.
Ravens TTR is 2nd (great).
Bengals TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Henry does not have much of a PPR floor, but he has had at least 26 touches (2 targets/g) in his last 2, and we've officially seen he can still hit the HR/have multi TD slate breaking upside... I'll never talk anyone off of him, but he is the highest priced RB, and absolutely has paths to bad performances. Not in love with flowers, but PPR sites give him a nice floor as he has a 26% target share, his aDOT is low though, plus you can get Bateman who has a massive 15 aDOT --- he will hit a HR eventually, and he's much cheaper. There's better options than Hill but he has some ppr safety, I just have more opps from other plays in the 5K range, I don't think I can do it. While I'm passing on Likely/Andrews, there prices have continued to slip, and either one can hit a HR game, so I get it.
Moss hit 19 opps last week, and now has 3 of 4 games with at least 4 targets, scoring in each one of those games, don't love or hate him. Everybody will be looking at Chase, but in the 2 games with him and Higgins, Higgins metrics look better, and he's 2K cheaper... Higgins 23.5%/10, Chase 19%/11, I'll do Higgins at lower ownership all day.
MIA@NEP
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Patriots have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Huntley? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Achane? has a meh run potential.
Brissett? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Dolphins TTR is 19th (meh).
Pats TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Mostert back, drops Achanes value, I think they are both overpriced and can't really take week 1 into account with no tua now too, I'll pass. I'll tell you what, nobody will be playing Hill in tourneys this week, he had a massive 33% target share, with an 18.4 aDOT with Huntley last week... I know there is serious concern here, but he is an ultimate boom candidate, at low single digit ownership, I think it is absolutely worth a stab. Waddle could be fine on PPR sites, it is kind of crazy he is in the 5K range but I am not going overboard.
Polk plays the most, has a double digit aDOT, and is in the 3K range, so I guess I can be convinced as a salary saver/punt play, the other pieces at WR don't really stand out. Henry has a good target share with Brissett (20%) but I still feel like I'd like him to be cheaper. Then WTF do we do at RB. Gibson named the starter, if he sees 50%+ of snaps maybe he can get there at 5.1K, but I still think Stevenson will play more despite not being on the field first, feels like a wait and see approach.
IND@JAC
Colts have a great P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Jags have a good P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Taylor has a meh run potential.
Lawrence has a meh pass potential. Etienne has a good run potential.
Colts TTR is 12th.
Jags TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Sermon is a 5K player getting vaulted into a workhorse role. The discussion is are there similarly priced pivots/smarter to avoid this leverage? My gut tells me yes, but I'm undecided as of now. Last week with Flacco Pittman had 6 targets from Flacco, Downs had 8, and Mitchell/Pierce had huge aDOTs over 20... I think grabbing one of these guys is a smart play, Pierce/Downs make some sents as dart throws at a cheap price but it isn't like pittman is expensive at 6K.
Stroud finished up as a top 8 QB going 300+ 2 vs indy, Caleb had his best fantasy start against this team, and Fields last week was the QB1 overall... if Lawrence is going to do it, this is the week. All 3 of these WRs play 70%+ of snaps, all 3 have aDOTs between 12.5 and 13.2, and target shares of 17 to 24% so I think you can pair him up with any 2 if going for a bigger team/game stack, if Engram plays, Wk1 Thomas's aDOT hurt the most, but maybe that was a week 1 rookie thing. Etienne is not fully healthy and has yet to eclispe 17 opps, he feels way to expensive when guys below him are projected more... do I think he can break out? Yes, but I'm not chasing it despite a good projected script/pace of play.
BUF@HOU
Bills have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Cook has a great run potential.
Akers? has a good run potential.
Bills TTR is 6th (good).
Texans TTR is T-8th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Kind of the same problem as Etienne, but more expensive, Cook in 3 straight games hasn't exceeded 16 opps, and 2 of those 3 games he had just 1 target. Plus Allen is a vulture candidate. I can't stomach paying the price for him. Not a single WR on this team has a 20% target share, but Shakirs team leading 19% should now get dispersed. Keon Coleman plays the most, and has a big 15 aDOT, he would be the one-off I shoot for, as well as Mack Hollins > Samuel, as he is $100 from floor price, and has outsnapped him in all 4 games but a considerable margin. I do think Kincaids floor rises too.
No RB has sniffed 50% of snaps in the 2 full weeks without mixon, and they don't have a good ppr floor either, pass. Collins is obviously an alpha, but I am not paying that price for him, Diggs aDOT is to low for me... but Dell in his 3 games has an 11.5 aDOT, plays almost 70% of snaps, and is a cheap way to get some of this offense. I guess Schultz's price has gotten egregiously low that he can be cosnidered, his aDOT is good for a TE at 7.5, but he really is not getting the targets (11% share).
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
ARI@SFO
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Kyler has a meh pressure rate situation. Conner has a meh run potential.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Mason has a good run potential.
Cards TTR is 13th.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Conner has now had 3 straight games with just 1 target, and 2 of those games were in positive passing scripts, I don't feel comfortable clicking his name with others in the 6K price range having a better range. In the 3 games with McBride, Harrison has had a good target share of 25.5%, but his aDOT of 16 is what's more impressive. He is pricey, but he has slate breaking upside imo too so he won't be off my list. Dortch/Wilson are similar players and can pick your poison. If McBride suits up, he has some of the best TE numbers with a 24.5% target share, and close to a 9 aDOT. In the 1 game without McBride, we saw Mi. Wilson have a big 32% target share/12 aDOT, if McBride is a no go, I'll gladly fire him up in the 4K range.
Mason is a 75%+ bellcow, having atleast 21 opps in every game, he finally got his price jacked up on DK, and he's averaging under 2 targets/g, so without a TD, he could single digit you/not even 2x this salary, so I have my concerns. In 3 games with the healthy big 3, Deebo has a 29% target share, and a good 10.4 aDOT, which is a stark contrast to last year, where he finished with an aDOT in the 6's, plus we know he is utilized in higher leveraged situations, I was a big fan of aiyuk based of price/metrics last year, and now I've flipped the script for this year so far. Kittle is priced like mcbride, but has slightly worse metrics, 21%/7.2, I'll pass for now.
LVR@DEN
Raiders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Minshew has a bad pass potential. Mattison? has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jav. Williams? has a meh run potential.
Raiders TTR is 20th (last/bad).
Broncos TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 10th (last/bad).
- Mattison was told he'd get more touches/snaps, THEN Zamir White gets hurt at practice... Mattison could be in line for 20+ touches and he is low 5Ks, yes please. I talked up/play tucker last week, and he finished with 23% target share, and a good 12 aDOT, Meyers was similar, but Tucker comes at 4.1K, I'll go back to the well a bit. Shockingly Bowers without Adams last week had only a 10% target share, and a meh 5.5 aDOT. I don't think that happens again, plus he played a season high snaps (81%), I'm fine if people want to go here.
I didn't take last weeks weather into consideration, plus an obvious tough matchup vs the Jets but I still don't want to forget how cheap Nix is (5K), and how he hit 20 FPs week 3... this matchup is great for him, and I think he should be considered, as 3x'ing seems like an easy floor for him. Sutton has really good metrics on the season, 28%/13.3, that's cheap for 5.5K. Humphrey looks to be the WR2 based off snap count, and he is almost floor price, so I understand that, will note if stacking here reynolds is cheap too and has a 12 aDOT. If you don't want the passing attack, Jav. Williams is averaging 4 targets/g his last 3, and is coming off a 19 opp performance, I don't hate him at 5.2K, but I think most eyes go here in this matchup, and he still doesn't play a big majority of snaps.
NYG@SEA
Giants have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Jones has a bad pass potential. Singletary? bas a bad run potential.
Geno has a bad pressure rate situation, Walker has a great run potential.
Giants TTR is T-17th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is T-6th.
- You get a starting RB at 4.3K, go for it, just get different elsewhere. With Nabers out, you have a BIG 38% target share hole to fill, Wandale looks like a very sage PPR floor, and Slayton consistently has had a good aDOT (even last year), at 12.8 now. I lean to him, as he is 3.9K. If you think Hyatt finally steps up, go for it... he is almost floor price.
This backfield may be a 60-40 split now, and Walker seems to expensive with this possible new look, while Charb is to overpriced as he had a starter role for 2 weeks baked into it.... I'll pass for now, but understand I could regret it. Of the 3, Metcalf leads in both Target share/aDOT, and if you can afford/want to play 1, he's obviously who I'd go to. I do think Lockett/JSN can be interchanged, but I can't tell you which will outproduce the other. I will note, Geno leads the league in pass attempts, as well as being top 3~ in completion%, that's nice to see for PPR sites.
GBP@LAR
Packers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rams have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good run potential.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation.
Packers TTR is 3th (good).
Rams TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- In Jacobs 2 games with Love, he's averaging 4.5 targets/g, he's priced in the 6K range and should easily get to 20+ touches. No Doubs, no Watson, Wicks already led the team with Love in target share AND aDOT (reed was close behind), but I will be all over Wicks today at 5K.
Kyren is a bellcow that everyone knows he's whats needed to be stopped (w/ no nacua/kupp) and he continues to produce. I feel like he should fail eventually in these situations as he is priced mid 7Ks, but 20+ touches, and 3 targets seems to be his floor so idk. All 3 WRs are priced within $300 of eachother. Last week was whittingtons first real start and he played practically 100% of snaps (leading the core), and had 28% of targets, PPR sites he is playable. I'll note Tutu had a 13 aDOT, with a respectable 21% target share as well. IF this is the game robinson bites me, so be it, but he has gotten worse and worse game to go, and I will not be playing him.
CLV@WAS
Browns have a great P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Watson has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Daniels has a good pass potential. Br. Robinson has a good rush potential.
Browns TTR is 14th.
Commanders TTR is T-8th (good).
Pace of play is 9th (meh), O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Browns quietly throwing at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL, Jerome Ford doesn't feel like a nice click, but he plays over 75% of snaps, and in 2 of his 4 games he has hit 7 targets, that shows he has some PPR upside. With no TDs he finished with 15+ FPs., he's a good pivot off what should be a popular pass attack. But that won't keep me off them either I just want to be underweight especially IF Njoku suits up. Cooper/Jeudy are priced at a spot where either can be considered, Cooper 27%/12.7, and Jeudy 22%/11.8 stats.
Don't really love Br. Robinson as he is approaching the top half of the 6K range, coming in with an injury, and Ekeler is back. If he's out, I'll have interest in Ekeler in the 5K range. McLaurins last 3 games he has a 30% target share WITH an 11.75 aDOT... fire him up with confidence. Ertz is a fine punt option at 3.8K.
CAR@CHI
Panthers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bears have a great P/RB matchup.
Dalton has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation.
Panthers TTR is 16th (meh).
Bears TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 8th (meh).
- Hubbards 2 games with Dalton, 26 and 22 opps, 4.5 targets/g, and saw a season high 74% of snaps last week in a losing effort, at 6.1K he is a good play, Johnson grades out SO good, with a 35.5% target share/10.5 aDOT he should be priced over 7K, at 6.1K too, sign me up. Legette/Mingo are the WR2/3, Mingo is unplayable, and I feel like I'd like legette a touch lower, as his aDOT is below 9, and his target share is just 17% but I can be talked into it. Tremble has the otton effect, out there a lot, but not really getting targetted, his 8.6 aDOT is nice for a TE, ok punt option.
Lets go swift baby! everyone discussing Roschon (who I did grab in a couple leagues) and swift comes out with a 23 opp (7! target) game, he has such a safe floor/ceiling combo, in the 5K range he makes a lot of sense. None of these WRs have a double digit aDOT, Moore/Allen are ok from a target%, but the bears as a favorite could limit opportuntiies. In a winning effort last week, they ran the ball the most of any point this season, play them if you think the CAR wins/leads.
BAL@CIN
Ravens have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lamar has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Henry has a great run potential.
Burrow has a great pass potential. Moss has a meh run potential.
Ravens TTR is 2nd (great).
Bengals TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is T-10th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- Henry does not have much of a PPR floor, but he has had at least 26 touches (2 targets/g) in his last 2, and we've officially seen he can still hit the HR/have multi TD slate breaking upside... I'll never talk anyone off of him, but he is the highest priced RB, and absolutely has paths to bad performances. Not in love with flowers, but PPR sites give him a nice floor as he has a 26% target share, his aDOT is low though, plus you can get Bateman who has a massive 15 aDOT --- he will hit a HR eventually, and he's much cheaper. There's better options than Hill but he has some ppr safety, I just have more opps from other plays in the 5K range, I don't think I can do it. While I'm passing on Likely/Andrews, there prices have continued to slip, and either one can hit a HR game, so I get it.
Moss hit 19 opps last week, and now has 3 of 4 games with at least 4 targets, scoring in each one of those games, don't love or hate him. Everybody will be looking at Chase, but in the 2 games with him and Higgins, Higgins metrics look better, and he's 2K cheaper... Higgins 23.5%/10, Chase 19%/11, I'll do Higgins at lower ownership all day.
MIA@NEP
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Patriots have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Huntley? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Achane? has a meh run potential.
Brissett? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Dolphins TTR is 19th (meh).
Pats TTR is T-17th (meh).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Mostert back, drops Achanes value, I think they are both overpriced and can't really take week 1 into account with no tua now too, I'll pass. I'll tell you what, nobody will be playing Hill in tourneys this week, he had a massive 33% target share, with an 18.4 aDOT with Huntley last week... I know there is serious concern here, but he is an ultimate boom candidate, at low single digit ownership, I think it is absolutely worth a stab. Waddle could be fine on PPR sites, it is kind of crazy he is in the 5K range but I am not going overboard.
Polk plays the most, has a double digit aDOT, and is in the 3K range, so I guess I can be convinced as a salary saver/punt play, the other pieces at WR don't really stand out. Henry has a good target share with Brissett (20%) but I still feel like I'd like him to be cheaper. Then WTF do we do at RB. Gibson named the starter, if he sees 50%+ of snaps maybe he can get there at 5.1K, but I still think Stevenson will play more despite not being on the field first, feels like a wait and see approach.
IND@JAC
Colts have a great P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Jags have a good P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Taylor has a meh run potential.
Lawrence has a meh pass potential. Etienne has a good run potential.
Colts TTR is 12th.
Jags TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Sermon is a 5K player getting vaulted into a workhorse role. The discussion is are there similarly priced pivots/smarter to avoid this leverage? My gut tells me yes, but I'm undecided as of now. Last week with Flacco Pittman had 6 targets from Flacco, Downs had 8, and Mitchell/Pierce had huge aDOTs over 20... I think grabbing one of these guys is a smart play, Pierce/Downs make some sents as dart throws at a cheap price but it isn't like pittman is expensive at 6K.
Stroud finished up as a top 8 QB going 300+ 2 vs indy, Caleb had his best fantasy start against this team, and Fields last week was the QB1 overall... if Lawrence is going to do it, this is the week. All 3 of these WRs play 70%+ of snaps, all 3 have aDOTs between 12.5 and 13.2, and target shares of 17 to 24% so I think you can pair him up with any 2 if going for a bigger team/game stack, if Engram plays, Wk1 Thomas's aDOT hurt the most, but maybe that was a week 1 rookie thing. Etienne is not fully healthy and has yet to eclispe 17 opps, he feels way to expensive when guys below him are projected more... do I think he can break out? Yes, but I'm not chasing it despite a good projected script/pace of play.
BUF@HOU
Bills have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Cook has a great run potential.
Akers? has a good run potential.
Bills TTR is 6th (good).
Texans TTR is T-8th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Kind of the same problem as Etienne, but more expensive, Cook in 3 straight games hasn't exceeded 16 opps, and 2 of those 3 games he had just 1 target. Plus Allen is a vulture candidate. I can't stomach paying the price for him. Not a single WR on this team has a 20% target share, but Shakirs team leading 19% should now get dispersed. Keon Coleman plays the most, and has a big 15 aDOT, he would be the one-off I shoot for, as well as Mack Hollins > Samuel, as he is $100 from floor price, and has outsnapped him in all 4 games but a considerable margin. I do think Kincaids floor rises too.
No RB has sniffed 50% of snaps in the 2 full weeks without mixon, and they don't have a good ppr floor either, pass. Collins is obviously an alpha, but I am not paying that price for him, Diggs aDOT is to low for me... but Dell in his 3 games has an 11.5 aDOT, plays almost 70% of snaps, and is a cheap way to get some of this offense. I guess Schultz's price has gotten egregiously low that he can be cosnidered, his aDOT is good for a TE at 7.5, but he really is not getting the targets (11% share).
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
ARI@SFO
Cards have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Kyler has a meh pressure rate situation. Conner has a meh run potential.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Mason has a good run potential.
Cards TTR is 13th.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Conner has now had 3 straight games with just 1 target, and 2 of those games were in positive passing scripts, I don't feel comfortable clicking his name with others in the 6K price range having a better range. In the 3 games with McBride, Harrison has had a good target share of 25.5%, but his aDOT of 16 is what's more impressive. He is pricey, but he has slate breaking upside imo too so he won't be off my list. Dortch/Wilson are similar players and can pick your poison. If McBride suits up, he has some of the best TE numbers with a 24.5% target share, and close to a 9 aDOT. In the 1 game without McBride, we saw Mi. Wilson have a big 32% target share/12 aDOT, if McBride is a no go, I'll gladly fire him up in the 4K range.
Mason is a 75%+ bellcow, having atleast 21 opps in every game, he finally got his price jacked up on DK, and he's averaging under 2 targets/g, so without a TD, he could single digit you/not even 2x this salary, so I have my concerns. In 3 games with the healthy big 3, Deebo has a 29% target share, and a good 10.4 aDOT, which is a stark contrast to last year, where he finished with an aDOT in the 6's, plus we know he is utilized in higher leveraged situations, I was a big fan of aiyuk based of price/metrics last year, and now I've flipped the script for this year so far. Kittle is priced like mcbride, but has slightly worse metrics, 21%/7.2, I'll pass for now.
LVR@DEN
Raiders have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Minshew has a bad pass potential. Mattison? has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Jav. Williams? has a meh run potential.
Raiders TTR is 20th (last/bad).
Broncos TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 10th (last/bad).
- Mattison was told he'd get more touches/snaps, THEN Zamir White gets hurt at practice... Mattison could be in line for 20+ touches and he is low 5Ks, yes please. I talked up/play tucker last week, and he finished with 23% target share, and a good 12 aDOT, Meyers was similar, but Tucker comes at 4.1K, I'll go back to the well a bit. Shockingly Bowers without Adams last week had only a 10% target share, and a meh 5.5 aDOT. I don't think that happens again, plus he played a season high snaps (81%), I'm fine if people want to go here.
I didn't take last weeks weather into consideration, plus an obvious tough matchup vs the Jets but I still don't want to forget how cheap Nix is (5K), and how he hit 20 FPs week 3... this matchup is great for him, and I think he should be considered, as 3x'ing seems like an easy floor for him. Sutton has really good metrics on the season, 28%/13.3, that's cheap for 5.5K. Humphrey looks to be the WR2 based off snap count, and he is almost floor price, so I understand that, will note if stacking here reynolds is cheap too and has a 12 aDOT. If you don't want the passing attack, Jav. Williams is averaging 4 targets/g his last 3, and is coming off a 19 opp performance, I don't hate him at 5.2K, but I think most eyes go here in this matchup, and he still doesn't play a big majority of snaps.
NYG@SEA
Giants have a bad P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Jones has a bad pass potential. Singletary? bas a bad run potential.
Geno has a bad pressure rate situation, Walker has a great run potential.
Giants TTR is T-17th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is T-6th.
- You get a starting RB at 4.3K, go for it, just get different elsewhere. With Nabers out, you have a BIG 38% target share hole to fill, Wandale looks like a very sage PPR floor, and Slayton consistently has had a good aDOT (even last year), at 12.8 now. I lean to him, as he is 3.9K. If you think Hyatt finally steps up, go for it... he is almost floor price.
This backfield may be a 60-40 split now, and Walker seems to expensive with this possible new look, while Charb is to overpriced as he had a starter role for 2 weeks baked into it.... I'll pass for now, but understand I could regret it. Of the 3, Metcalf leads in both Target share/aDOT, and if you can afford/want to play 1, he's obviously who I'd go to. I do think Lockett/JSN can be interchanged, but I can't tell you which will outproduce the other. I will note, Geno leads the league in pass attempts, as well as being top 3~ in completion%, that's nice to see for PPR sites.
GBP@LAR
Packers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rams have a good P/RB matchup.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good run potential.
Stafford has a meh pressure rate situation.
Packers TTR is 3th (good).
Rams TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- In Jacobs 2 games with Love, he's averaging 4.5 targets/g, he's priced in the 6K range and should easily get to 20+ touches. No Doubs, no Watson, Wicks already led the team with Love in target share AND aDOT (reed was close behind), but I will be all over Wicks today at 5K.
Kyren is a bellcow that everyone knows he's whats needed to be stopped (w/ no nacua/kupp) and he continues to produce. I feel like he should fail eventually in these situations as he is priced mid 7Ks, but 20+ touches, and 3 targets seems to be his floor so idk. All 3 WRs are priced within $300 of eachother. Last week was whittingtons first real start and he played practically 100% of snaps (leading the core), and had 28% of targets, PPR sites he is playable. I'll note Tutu had a 13 aDOT, with a respectable 21% target share as well. IF this is the game robinson bites me, so be it, but he has gotten worse and worse game to go, and I will not be playing him.
Last edited:
Interesting thought for sure
2daBank
Voice of Reason
staying on the Brian Thomas train at 54.5 don’t think they moving him up quick enough, similar size and style Pickens who just torched colts.
Speaking of slowly moving up, Mike Williams is now up to 30.5 which still feels incredibly low seeing how he getting more involved every week!!! had a pretty big game last week in awful conditions. Doesn’t seem to me Garrett Wilson is on Rodgers wave length while Williams and him quickly building rapport. This gonna be an important week to be on the same page against Vikings d, gotta think Lazard in slot and w Rodgers trust will get more work than 34.5 suggest. If jets have a chance here think it these 2 and hall who gonna need to make plays.,
Speaking of slowly moving up, Mike Williams is now up to 30.5 which still feels incredibly low seeing how he getting more involved every week!!! had a pretty big game last week in awful conditions. Doesn’t seem to me Garrett Wilson is on Rodgers wave length while Williams and him quickly building rapport. This gonna be an important week to be on the same page against Vikings d, gotta think Lazard in slot and w Rodgers trust will get more work than 34.5 suggest. If jets have a chance here think it these 2 and hall who gonna need to make plays.,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Just don’t think AR has the timing or accuracy to make use of a crisp route runner/possession type wr. Flacco should love him even more after a week of practice together.
As Raiders top option at WR today against Denver i‘m thinking Myers gets shut down.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Regarding Jets I do think Breece could have a game. Allen taking carries for sure but I do think Minny run D a bit overrated. Minny had the advantage of getting up early and teams had to scrap the run. Only exception SF Mason went for 100 on 20 carries.
150 is insane though I think the Jets may look to pound the run more than Rodgers would like.
150 is insane though I think the Jets may look to pound the run more than Rodgers would like.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
If I was gonna touch hall it would be recieving yards but i like the numbers on Lazard and Williams better.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
sneaky low yardage guys i like.,
All ov 16.5 rec
Ekler ov 14.5 rec
Tracy jr ov 13.5 rec
Love these, Eric All been catching 4 passes a week, we know burrow be throwing and ravens don’t defend te’s any better then rest the passing game. I’d think he get far less attention than the stud WRs, this should be cake!
Anytime ya can get ekler this low you take it. It’s like he missed a week and they forgot how involved he been! 4 for 52, 3 for 47, 2 for 22 in the game he got hurt, should be another slam dunk! It not like he has a bad hammy or anything, he had a concussion and he cleared now so no issues.
Tracy jr should be giants lead back but even if it a split w gray i don’t mind, they were already starting to get him involved a bit the last few weeks, who the hell jones gonna throw to? He can’t throw to that tiny wr anymore than he already does! Tracy was a wr in college, this number crazy low!!
Anyone spot any others like this??
All ov 16.5 rec
Ekler ov 14.5 rec
Tracy jr ov 13.5 rec
Love these, Eric All been catching 4 passes a week, we know burrow be throwing and ravens don’t defend te’s any better then rest the passing game. I’d think he get far less attention than the stud WRs, this should be cake!
Anytime ya can get ekler this low you take it. It’s like he missed a week and they forgot how involved he been! 4 for 52, 3 for 47, 2 for 22 in the game he got hurt, should be another slam dunk! It not like he has a bad hammy or anything, he had a concussion and he cleared now so no issues.
Tracy jr should be giants lead back but even if it a split w gray i don’t mind, they were already starting to get him involved a bit the last few weeks, who the hell jones gonna throw to? He can’t throw to that tiny wr anymore than he already does! Tracy was a wr in college, this number crazy low!!
Anyone spot any others like this??
Good looks, especially Eck!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I play along with baseball props because injuries are rare
Football props literally ruin the game for me, probably played my last one on Bijan the other night but nothing like a first quarter injury to completely ruin the game
Bars are open now, 6am is when alcohol sales start and there are a ton of Vikings fans here. God knows they love to drink this time of day!
ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
4 PMs updated.
Posting a prop from each game that I tend to like the most.
J. Ford Receptions O2.5 -160
T. McLaurin Rec Yds O53.5 -110
D. Swift Rush&Rec Yds O71.5 -114
Di. Johnson Rec Yds O61.5 -110
R. Bateman Rec Yds O29.5 -110
T. Higgins Rec Yds O52.5 -110
T. Hill Rec Yds O47.5 -110
A. Gibson Rush Yds U48.5 -110
C. Kirk Rec Yds O51.5 -110
J. Downs Receptions O4.5 -146
J. Cook Rush&Rec Yds U82.5 -114
T. Dell Rec Yds O45.5 -110
M. Harrison Rec Yds O60.5 -110
D. Samuel Rec Yds O57.5 -110
T. Tucker Receptions O3.5 -138
C. Sutton Rec Yds O49.5 -110
D. Slayton Rec Yds O39.5 -110
K. Walker Rush&Rec Yds U89.5 -113
D. Wicks Rec Yds O56.5 -110
J. Whittington Receptions O4.5 -128
Posting a prop from each game that I tend to like the most.
J. Ford Receptions O2.5 -160
T. McLaurin Rec Yds O53.5 -110
D. Swift Rush&Rec Yds O71.5 -114
Di. Johnson Rec Yds O61.5 -110
R. Bateman Rec Yds O29.5 -110
T. Higgins Rec Yds O52.5 -110
T. Hill Rec Yds O47.5 -110
A. Gibson Rush Yds U48.5 -110
C. Kirk Rec Yds O51.5 -110
J. Downs Receptions O4.5 -146
J. Cook Rush&Rec Yds U82.5 -114
T. Dell Rec Yds O45.5 -110
M. Harrison Rec Yds O60.5 -110
D. Samuel Rec Yds O57.5 -110
T. Tucker Receptions O3.5 -138
C. Sutton Rec Yds O49.5 -110
D. Slayton Rec Yds O39.5 -110
K. Walker Rush&Rec Yds U89.5 -113
D. Wicks Rec Yds O56.5 -110
J. Whittington Receptions O4.5 -128
2daBank
Voice of Reason
im on cook and Harrison, think I got harrison ov56.5, he went up that much? Might join you on few others.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You like cook this week Lex?
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Yeah. Rush yds o57.5 looks like banger to me. Trying to decide on props currently but that is a def wager
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Kincaid o43.5 once again to me looks solid
