1PMs/Main Slate (MS)
CLV/ATL
Browns have a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Falcons also have a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Brissett has a good ASR matchup, Chubb has a good ALY matchup.
Patterson? has a great ALY mathcup.
Browns have the 6th best TTR.
Falcons have the T-9th best TTR.
Pace is 12th/16, and 10th/12 in the MS. O/UR is 3rd in the MS.
- Injuries - CLV - LB Walker is out. They have a ton of defensive Q's. Clowney/Garrett didn't practice, Owusu and Ward did. Njoku is Q, did not practice. I can't find any updated news on Jedrick Willis, but apparently he had an MRI last friday and is listed as Q. That could be a huge loss.
- ATL - They're relatively healthy.
- We have great matchups all over, and good TTR/OUr. The only thing is the pace is slow but I won't let that stop me from at a minimum one-offing. Chubbs a best, he plays 55 to 65% of snaps, but they give him the ball 20+ times, and he is averaging 5.5 ypc..... I like him, if you're mass entering, please hedge with a hunt one, as he can always steal the show. If Njoku is out (or maybe even if he is in), I think we fire up Cooper and hope people forget about him as he hasn't played since last thursday... the guys averaging 9 targets a game, and has a 30% target share, with an aDOT/r over 8, we are getting atleast 9-72 potential with higher upside if no Njoku. I have to add, DP-J has practically the same metrics as cooper in regards to snaps/aDOTr, and is probably cheaper. Even though most of that production came week 1, which is when Njoku wasn't even looked at.
We have 2 to maybe 3 options when playing atlanta, and its because the 2 of them have been the focus of this offense. London and Pitts have a combined 56.6% target share of the offense. Drakes being the higher of the two, at 32.9%, good for 4th best in the entire league. (pitts is 3rd among TEs). I think you can play both here, but give me london and his increasing snap share all day. I don't want to take bad about patterson, he's been very efficient, but he's been capped at about 60% of snaps... Algeier, while note playing week 1, has seen his snap count go from 0 to 31, to 37%, not saying they're in a 60-40 time split, but I don't want to go completely overboard.
BUF/BAL
Bills have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a bad ASR matchup, Dobbins? has a bad ALY matchup.
Allen has a good ASR matchup. Singletary has a meh ALY matchup.
Bills have the 1st TTR.
Ravens have the T-7th TTR.
Pace of play is 11th/16, 9th/12 in MS. O/UR is 2nd in MS.
- Injuries - BUF - No S Hyde or DT Phillips for 2nd week, no CB Benford for 1st week. A lot of Q's. On OL, Bates is Q, suffered a concussion last week, his backup got put on IR, so could be a bit of a weakness. No Kumerow, Davis is Q.
- BAL - No CB fuller/LB Means for 3rd week, DT Pierce is out for 1st week, LB Houston is Q, was out last week, hasn't practiced this week. On OL, C Mekari sparined his ankle last week and is Q, (that didn't stop lamar last week).
- I don't know what to do here, Lamar is matchup proof with his high floor high ceiling combination. I haven't checked salaries, but I have a feeling I won't be able to roster him. If we are looking from the outside, we have the 4th worst pace, bad DVOA matchup (on both fronts), and a bad ASR/ALY matchup..... so there's reasons to fade. Having said that.... we almost felt the same way week 2 vs miami, and week 3 vs pats, and he lit it up... and now he's a home dog. I don't think I'll ever roster a raven back with lamar on the team... none even average 50% of snaps, have TDs stolen from them, and are projected what, 10 touches? no thanks. You can run no lamar, naked lamar, or pair him with bateman (hr upside, 13.4 aDOT/r, but don't really want him here), OR Andrews, guy leads TEs BY A MILY in terms of target % at 36.5% (2nd is higbee/pitts at 23.8%), and is behind just Ertz/Kelce in redzone targets, with 5. Oh, he;s avarging 10+ targets a game, with a 7.9 aDOT/r. 10+/80+ floor~ for a TE is insane.
Singletary has an even stronger hold of this backfield as the year has gone on, and reached a season high 73% of snaps last week. I'm actually warming up to singletary as a fantasy option. He is averaging over 5 targets a game (16 total good for T-7th of all backs, 4 of which were redzone targets). I haven't looked at his price, but if its low enough, the targets alone for a back is a safe floor, on a team with the highest team total. Not playing the TEs. I know diggs is an alpha, and play him if you want... but Davis was out there post injury for a team high at wr of 96% of snaps... diggs was at 70%... for comparison sake, week 1 was 98% davis, 64% diggs. He has a juicy aDOT/r at 14.9, and comes at a cheaper price. Sign me up.
WAS/DAL
Commanders have a good RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a great P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Wentz has the worst ASR matchup.
Zeke? has a good ALY matchup.
Commanders have the T-21st TTR/24.
Cowboys have the T-13th TTR.
Pace is 3rd/16, 3rd in MS. O/Ur is 10th in MS.
- Injuries - WAS - None on defense really. On OL, Center Roullier out for 2nd week, G Sweitzer out after starting last week.
- DAL - On D, just Q's. On O, Gallup looks to be back, and Schultz limited participant.
- How can we trust this commanders offense... they were doing nothing for 3? quarters last week, and go up against another great P Defense team, they have the worst ASR matchup, and could be missing more OL now. Ofh. Gibson had his lowest snap share last week, and I see this game playing out the same way... from behind... McKissic took advantage and had 9 targets last week, I can see him repeating that, and if he's dirt cheap, he could be a nice salary saver... 1 TD and he can be part of the winning lineup imo (better for DK than FD). If you want to one-off a WR be my guest, but I'll probably stay away. All 3 have 80%+ snap share, and atleast 14% target share. I still prefer dotson or mclaurin over samuel, despite the touches discrepancy.
Pollard has been the more efficient back, but I think Dallas wins this game, and Zeke is the Snap % guy when playing with a lead.... so I'll probably pass on both, but I think you can correlate a Zeke+Dal D lineup (or pollard I guess) and be happy with the results. If/With Gallup and Schultz back, bye bye Brown for now. I'd only have Lamb here, he has a great target share and rush has a great DVOA matchup.
SEA/DET
Seahawks have a good P/RB matchup.
Lions have a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup, Jam. Williams? has a great ALY matchup.
Seahawks have the T-13th TTR.
Lions have the 2nd TTR.
Pace is 6th/16, 5th/12 in MS. O/UR is 2nd.
- Injuries - SEA - ton of Q's, no jamal adams for 3rd straight week.
- DET - On D, no DE Comisky for 2nd week, and no S Walker for first week (hurt early last week), rest are Q's. On O, probably no Swift, no St. Brown, Chark/Hock/Reynolds all Q.
- Lockett/Metcalf both have about 50%~ of seattles targets, in a game with a high over/under, and pace, as road dogs that have a good DVOA matchup... I think either can be played here. Penny has been running hard, as he's averaging 4.4YPC, and more than half of the per carry is AFTER contact. If you think seattle can play in a game where they have the lead, he could see 20~ total touches, at a discount of a price.... but otherwise, he could be fazed out like most weeks, and see the 12~ touches at best. Not against it, but not sure if I'd go here.
I dont know what to do with the lions yet. Everyone and their mothers will have jamal williams, I need to go back and check, but I think Reynolds played a big role when Swift missed time (or was it because they both did?). Also I'd like to know if reynolds and/or hockenson is out (or chark).... St. Brown has a big 30% target share vacancy that needs to go somewhere. If all are in, Reynolds and Chark already owned 15 to 17% target share each, with good aDOT/rs over 11.... they could easily jump from 5 to 6 targets a game to 10+ sunday. IF a combination of them are out, that leaves Cephus/Raymond.
LAC/HOU
Chargers have a great RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
0 ASR/ALY notes.
Chargers have the 4th TTR.
Texans have the 18th TTR.
Pace is 2nd/16, and 2nd/12 in M/S. O/Ur is 6th.
- Injuries - LAC - DE Bosa out for 1st week (injured early last week), CB Jackson, who missed game 1 and 3 was a limited participant and is Q.. On O, Starting T Slater is out. Guyton is out, Allen/Parham Q,
- HOU - On D nothing real serious. some Q's. On O, TE Jordan Q, but hasn't practiced yet.
- Ekeler is unfortunately seeing just 55-60% of snaps but he's averaging about 18~ possible touches a game, where about 7~ of which are targets. He's in his best matchup yet and probably at a discount based off the year he's had. Don;t mind him. I'm not sure what to do with Allen... if he really is ready to go without limitations, he can be a PPR beast, I want some part of this offense, still dissecting. With or without him, Mike williams can still be stacked or one-offed in lineups, he has a healthy aDOT/r in the low double digits, and sees atleast 90%~ of snaps.
Can we talk about Dameon Pierce for a moment? Ok cool, So he had 20 carries (and 2 targets) in a game where they didn't lead for to long. But what is impressive (or scary depending on how you look at it) is he had only 0.9 yards before contact per carry.... WHAT, and had 3.2 yards after contact per carry. Now is it bad tackling, or a will to push the pile (his long was 24 yards, only 20% of his YAcontact). If you think there is a scenario where they keep it close or play with a lead, sign pierce up. If you think they fall behind by 7+, stay away and let others chase last week. I'm still good with Cooks in PPR formarts, but he has a good aDOT/r of 9 to go along with almost 10 targets a game, problem is only 66% of his targets have been deemed catchable. Still like Colllins too but hes at 67% of snaps, to cooks' 90%.
TEN/IND
Titans have a great P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Colts have a great P matchup, and good RB matchup.
Tanne has the best MS ASR matchup. Henry has a bad ALY matchup.
Ryan has a meh ASR matchup.
Titans have the 19th TTR.
Colts have the T-9th TTR.
Pace is 13th/16, 11th/12 in the MS. O/Ur is 8th.
- Injuries - TEN - On D, Missing 2 S's (Amadi and Hooker), and LB Cunningham, as well as a Q CB who was limited friday.
- IND - On D, S Blackmon is out, and 2 Q's, Buckner and Leonard.
- Despite a good passing matchup for both, and injuries that can open up the middle of the field, I won't have the QBs, the pace stinks, and these teams have a run first mentality. It doesn't mean one-offs can't be had. Henry had his best snap share last week, and saw 20 carries, that's get... but what is exceptional is that we was finally (again) targetted in the passing game, with 6 targets! If we are getting 25~+ possible touches out of henry, 20% of which are receptions, he is a super safe floor player, with slate breaking upside. Any of the 3 WRs can be one-offed if you want to have limited exposure, not going to tell you which but Woods > Burks statistically at the moment, more + deeper targets. Ikhine for homeruns, but the 3 of them combined for 2 total redzone targets through 3 games, pass.
Pass on colts TEs, they played 3 last week, all between 23 and 59% of snaps, all have a target share under 10%, and they don't get the ball thrown to them deep. You can find a homerun hitter WR on this offense from time to time, and it'll most likely be Pierce or Dulin, if Pierce is cheap enough, I may one-off him for that hope. Having said that, Pittman returned last week and almost immediately became an everydown player again, good sign... he also still owns a 20% target share of this offense, despite missing a game. I think his floor on a week to week basis is 15+, without a TD. There are 3 backs above 84% avg snap count. Barkley/Fournette/CMC, then comes Taylor at 76%. The guy is obviously a focal point of the offense, you know he will get all the goal line touches, and is good for around 25~ touches... if you can fit him, you take him, but that's where it becomes hard.
CHI/NYG
Bears have a great P/RB matchup
Giants have a good RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Fields has a bad ASR matchup, Herbert has a great ALY matchup.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup.
Bears have the 23rd TTR.
Giants have T-16th TTR.
Pace of play is 8th/16, 7th/12 on MS. O/Ur is 12 /12.
- Injuries - CHI - are missing a CB for 2nd straight week, and possibly a LB. But Montgomery out on O.
- NYG - Missing Leonard willaims for 2nd week, and CB Flott., backup CB McCloud is out too looks like. On O, they have 3 WRs gone, Toney/Shep/Robinson.
- Everyone and there mother will be on Herbert... you choose if you want to fade or follow the ownership. If you do fade, you might want to think of a bears WR in his place, because if herbert fails a bit, it'll probably be because of lack of TDs going elsewhere. The problem is this offense is putrid. They don't throw the damn ball, Mooney through 3 games have a 25% target share, on ELEVEN TOTAL TARGETS. thats 3.66 targets a week, which means 14 pass attempts average? I know week 1 was a slush fest, but I feel like it needs to get ramped up before we can trust them. Rookie 3rd round pick Velus should be active too. Ugh. Another atrocious stat, Kmet has been out there 87% of the time, has 5 total targets.
- I won't talk anyone out of barkley, he is the highest snap% back in the league, and has a 23~ touch average, with 5 being targets/g, such a safe floor. Giants are favorites, and the matchup is good. Idk how much I'll have of him though. The WRs is where the value hits, we have 3 missing. Leaves just James, Sills, Golladay. I know golladay will NOT be owned, but throwing a dart at him I can see (not for me). I think James is a solid PPR target, and has a decent 8 aDOT/r, but Sills is virtually the same, just a touch less targets (about 1.5 less p/game), but both (really all 3) should absolutely see upticks with Shepard and his 28% target share on the season missing.
JAC/PHI
Jaguars have a great RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Eagles have a bad P/RB matchup.
Robinson has a meh ALY matchup.
Sanders has a bad ALY matchup.
Jaguars TTR is 20th.
Eagles TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 7th/16, 6th on MS. O/Ur is T-4th.
- Injuries - JAC - relatively healthy, 2 defensive Q's, and Zay Jones is Q.
- PHI - On D, CB Maddox is out, which was almost an everydown player. On O, Bo Scott is out, which gives an extra couple touches to Gainwell/Sanders.
- Great game for an NFL fan, we see who are really believes or not. I don't agree with the 3rd ranked TT for philly with a game thats middle of the road in pace, and where they have no good or great matchups. I don't want to talk myself out of the eagles entirely, but I think I'll be much more underweight than the field. In a scenario where they fail, look for Robinson (or Eteinne) to be succesful. They're currently in a 60-40 split to robinson, but keep in mind the last 2 weeks were blowouts, so I'm not sure if that gap widens or not (it may not but 70-30~ wouldn't shcok me either) The two combined are averaging 31+ touches a game, 80% from rushes, 20% from passes, I prefer JRob of couse, but I wouldn't be shocked if Etienne has bigger games every once in awhile. The one thing I'll say about the jags is they are throwing it in the redzone, which could be a nice buy low ownership wise for Lawrence. He has 24 pass attempts in the redzone. If Zay Jones sits, look for increased production out of marvin (as well as kirk to be a safe play). To go back to philly, I'm not saying you can't play Brown or Smith, or pair with hurts (or naked hurts) or sanders and his 5 ypc, but I won't be going overboard here. I prefer Brown the most, as he sees a good chunk of redzone, and has 33% target share on the team with a healthy 9,3 aDOT/r, but devonte smith isn't far behind.
NYJ/PIT
Jets have a good RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Steelers have a great P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Trubisky has a great ASR matchup.
Jets have the T-21st TTR.
Steelers have the 11th TTR.
Pace of play is 1st, OUrank is 9th.
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, LB Williams is out, was an everydown player, and on OL, Fant is out.
- PIT - On D, obvi Watt is still out, but so is every down CB, witherspoon.
- Great pace, and great spot for trubisky... did I say that? I think Diontae Johnson may be a must start. He last played 98% of snaps, he has a team high 32.7% target share, 5th best in the league, and has a nice aDOT/r of 9. His floor could be 10-90 without YAC or a TD. IMO he has 25+ point upside this week. Claypool is an ok option, but he catches more underneath, I'd rather the homerun ball pickens. 4~ targets a game, with the biggest aDOT on the team. I don't know his price, but Freiermuth needs to be mentioned too, he has a 20.8% target sahre, also 5th best among all TE's, with an aDOT/r of 7.9 which is tied for 4th among TEs with 10+ targets. I don't know his price, but I'd keep that in mind.
IDk what to do with the jet backfield, both are virtually equals, and both have safe PPR floors with 5 to 7 targets a game average, each, but this was also with flacco. As for the WRs. Wilson is getting the most production, but Moore and Davis are both out there way more. I still think Davis is a good homerun hitter, he has an insane aDOT/r of 15.6, and I do feel like the jets will be playing from behind. If you need a cheap plug and play after creating your base lineup, someone from this team can be considered, but gl with who you choose.
