1PMs/Main Slate
DEN@NYJ
Broncos have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jets have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Nix has a bad pressure rate situation, AND pass potential.
Rodgers has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Hall has a good run potential.
Broncos TTR is 23rd (bad).
Jets TTR is 5TH (good).
Pace of play is 4th (for all weeks games), O/U Rank is 11th (bad --- (for main slate games)).
- Just want to say Nix only had 216 passing yards and 1 total TD last week and finished almost 4x'ing this salary of his. I'm not saying its the smartest play, but can even with 2 TDs, and some rushing upside, I don't really hate him Keep in mind the pace of this game actually isn't bad either.. Jav. Williams, while cheap, can't really be trusted, I think PPR sites gives him some safety net, but 2 games already this year he hasn't even got over 10 opps. Reynolds has the best aDOT but has seen his snaps decreased in 3 straight. Sutton is a fine volume option with a 10+ aDOT. In weeks 2 and 3 Lil'Jordan has had a 77 and 74% snap count, with a 20% target share. He has a 5 aDOT which isn't the greatest, but Nix may be forced into short throws, and for PPR/floor priced option, he actually looks attractive.
B. Allen is more expensive than Javonte, and hasn't played 35% of snaps yet... unless you see a blowout (possible), pass. Lazard/Wilson are the only 2 WRs to consider. Lazard is averaging 5.33 targets.gm with an aDOT of 10, I think you can probably find better options at that price point, but we'll see. The plus with Wilson, is nobody is going to be lining up to play him vs the "1st" rated opponent rank, but he's an alpha with Rodgers throwing to him, has a 28% target share on the season, and an ok aDOT of 9. Hall is a goat for PPR formats. He has yet to hit under 71% snap counts, and never lower than a 21 opp count, with a floor of 5 targets/g. Won't talk anyone off of him.
PHI@TBB
Eagles have a great RB matchup., meh P matchup.
Bucs have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation. Barkley has a great run potential.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation.
Eagles TTR is 9th.
Bucs TTR is T-14th.
Pace of play is 12th (bad), O/U Rank is 5th (meh).
- Barkley is the alpha of FF/DFS at the moment, averaging 1.67 TDs/g, never lower than 80% snap count, never lower than 21 opps, averaging 3.67 targets/g, totlaing more than 100 total yards/g too. He has a great matchup, and no D. Smith, possibly no Brown. I don't see his involvement getting lower. Looks like Campbell would be the biggest snap count benefactor if both Smith/Brown are out, he's floor priced, and a fine play if that's the case. Dotson hit 79/88% without brown, but just a 6% target share in those 2 games, and a terrible 6.5 aDOT... at 5K, I don't really like that, but I also can't believe those numbers don't improve. Smith without Brown had a 32% target share/11.5 aDOT, those numbers should at the least be similar with Brown and no Smith. I hate chasing immediate performance breakouts, but Goedert is a TE we can trust in PPR formats while at least 1 of the big 2 are out. a 24% target share, with a decent TE aDOT of 7.2.
Penetrable wall vs moveable object... who wins? Articles are calling for Bucky to get more work, but R. Whites snap count has risen 3 straight weeks, hitting 74% last week, and his price has dropped over 3 straight weeks.. the guy has a path to 20+ opps and 5+ targets... at 6K PLUS tiny ownership that's a steal imo. Even with McMillian out, I'm not going to palmer, the WR3 is so minor at the moment. Godwin/Evans make up almost 50% of bakers targets, they are priced similarly, and I know one may be a good candidate, but I'm not in love with either as my attention is on White. but Evans for ceiling, Godwin for floor. I think Otton is interesting, he's coming off an 8 target performance, the WR3 is out, he plays 90%+ of snaps, TBB is dogs, at 3.4K you could easily do worse.
LAR@CHI
Rams have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential.
Williams has a meh pressure rate situation. Swift? has a meh run potential.
Rams TTR is 20th (meh).
Bears TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
- In a neutral to positive passing script, it is concerning stafford only had 25 pass attempts, his lowest of the year. A positive is this is a faster pace than last weeks, but so I won't cross them off, but I won't over expose myself to this offense. Another positive is these pass catchers don't break the bank. Robinson/Atwell are both the primary beneficiaries of no Kupp/Nacua. They both had big aDOTs over 15, 28/15.8, and maybe up about 40% of the targets, if you think this came could out pace the O/U, pick one of them. Parkinson is a fine punt play with a 6.4 aDOT/22% target share himself, a 5-45 does 3x. Kyren is an everydown workhorse back. He had 26 opps last week, but just 2 targets concerns me, I think he has a bit of a wider range in this matchup and I'll let others chase last weeks 3 TD performance.
Kind of like Nix, Caleb is cheap and just 4x'd this price. I think everyone sees the easy matchup, but last weeks performance took the 1st overall pace matchup, and a mostly positive passing script to get him to 52 pass attempts.... they're favorites in this matchup, and I think that he most likely fails in matching that. Swifts snap count dropped to 53% last week, maybe in passing scripts they want Roschon out there? He still finished with 17 opps (4 targets) which is good enough in the 5K price range, and maybe in a neutral script, the snaps tick back up closer to 70%, I'm neutral on him, and will have at least a bit of exposure. With K. Allen back, we only have 1 week to go off of, in Week 1, He and Moore combined for a 65% target share, while neither aDOT got to 10, the PPR floors and ceiling range are there. If he really is unbothered, I'd go with the cheaper Allen.
MIN@GBP
Vikings have a good P/RB matchup.
Packers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold? has a good pass potential. Jones has a good run potential (revenge game).
Love? has a great pressure rate situation. Jacobs has a meh run potential.
Vikings TTR is T-14th.
Packers TTR is T-6th (good).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 4th.
- Jones is coming off B2B games with 5 targets, and he just hit 24 opps last week, no issues if you have conviction on him in a revenge game. This could be Darnolds first full game with both JJ/Addison, unfortunately in week 1 it was cut short, as well as being a blowout. He's still priced pretty low, and would anybody be shocked at a 300-3 stat line? I wouldn't. He's 4th overall in airyards per attempt. At 5.1K Addison is too cheap.
Jacobs has had no ppr value with Willis, so maybe with love we see his 3~ target floor come back, I don't really want to play him at this price when no TDs could keep him in single digits. With Willis, Doubs and Watson have had huge aDOTs, but combined for about 20% of hte targets. Reed was at 25% with a negative aDOT. IMO Wicks would be my dart throw/punt, but why pay 4.5K range with a guy that plays maybe 50% of snaps at most, when you can find players vaulted into starting roles due to injury in that area. If Love truly is healthy/playing, I'll have more interest in the top pass catchers.
NOS@ATL
Saints have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Carr has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Kamara has a good run potential.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Saints TTR is T-17th.
Falcons TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 10th (bad). O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- In this first closely contested game of the Saints season, we saw what Kamara can truly be (if his prior 2 games wasn't enough) and that was an 86% snap count (good for 3rd on the week), and a 29 opp (3 target) performance... if he suits up, he is always an option. The WR room is a situation to monitor, Shaheed may be given a lot of targets if no Olave/Wilson, you may have floor priced options in Tipton/Means as a WR2. Possibly Johnson/Taysom. I will note, Johnsons lonely 3 targets did come at an average depth of 14 yards.
I don't know what to do with Bijan, we know he is capable, and if I see his ownership will be low, I'll have more interest, but at his price he hasn't even 2.5x'd this yet, and has got to 20 opportunities just once so far. I'm going to blame it on sample size, and I guess 2 of the games with 5 targets should give him a safe floor, I just have some red flags obviously. London, Mooney, and RayRay do not come off the field, all giving 93%+ the last 2 weeks. In those 2 weeks, they have all ranged between 8.3 and 9.1 aDOTs, this makes me like RayRay the most, as he is the cheapest, and could be the most overlooked, despite mooney not being to expensive either. While Rayray is my favorite option, I think London is fine to play in the 6K range, he does have the most RZ targets by far which gives him the most TD equity of the group. Pitts's doesn't move the needle for me, as you can argue he may be the 4th option at best, but he has a 9 aDOT which is good for a TE, being priced near Goedert doesn't help his cause for me.
CIN@CAR
Bengals have a great P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Burrow has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Moss has a great run potential.
Dalton has a bad pressure rate situation (skewed by young).
Bengals TTR is 3rd (good).
Panthers TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Moss is averaging 75% of snaps, and he's coming off an 18 opp (6 target) game, that's really good for still being priced in the 5K range. He has a great matchup, is a favorite, and is a good leverage option off the popular burrow stacks. In the first game together this season, Chase and Higgins (even Iosivas's) metrics weree all similar. 13/10.5/9 aDOTs, and 18/18/16% target shares... that does not make me excited to click Chase's name, as it feels overpriced/valued. IF I go here, I'll look to the WR2/3. Everyone talking about All at TE, but Gesicki still played the most snaps (albeit 50%), and had a really good TE aDOT of 9.4, he's cheap enough to be also be looked at as a leverage spot/exposure to this offense as a one-off if you wanted to go there.
Dalton in a positive RUN script still had 38 pass attempts. Does anyone see CAR blowing out CIN? I think at worst this should be played in a neutral script, and leads me to love these options that are still cheap plus raised floors with the removal of Thielen and his 13.5% target share last week. Diontae had 14 targets (38% target share), with an ok aDOT of 8.9, but those numbers led him to be the best weighted WR in week 3, and I am definitely going right back to the well. Based off pricing, I guess Mingo over Legette would be my 2nd option here. Hubbard is interesting, as he still ended up with 26 opps/5 targets last week, which is a steal for a guy priced in 5K range, but I don't want to go fully in on this offense. I will have shares of all separately though across a good portion of lineups.
JAC@HOU
Jaguars have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Etienne has a great run potential.
Stroud has a good pass potential.
Jaguars TTR is 16th (meh).
Texans TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd.
- I know Etienne can do it, and a 70% snap count is nothing to scoff at, but in all 3 of those games with that kind of field share, he has yet to even get to 18 opportunities. I do think the first game he gets to 20+ he will succeed, and maybe this is it, and he has had a nice target PPR floor, but without TDs in B2B games, his highest scoring game would be 10.5 points, with 2 single digit performances, not sure I can trust that but if I see tiny ownership, I may try to be the first to so I can be ahead of the performance as opposed to behind. Kind of like ATL, JAX WRs are all extremely similar, playing practically the same amount, all have aDOTS between 11.3 and 13.3, and target shares between 18 and 19%. I obviously like Kirk/Thomas's production of late/trending, of course if Davis is out too, they also have cheap prices... I think being right here could make you. I said it last week, but lawrence is top 5 in airyards/attempt, and I know he will eventually have a good performance, is this the week? I want to note, Strange is in line to play 70%~ of snaps, and in his 2 games without engram, he's had an 11 aDOT, which is only behind Andrews among true TEs (and andrews had just 6 targets to his 11), at 3.1K he isn't a bad one-off/punt play.
If Mixon is all systems go, he may be too cheap. He had 33 opps (3 targets) week 1, and in his injured game, where he played just 47% of snaps, he had 14 opps (5 targets).... Those are sexy. I still don't like Digg's price point being so close to Collins when he has half his aDOT (12.3 to 6.8). I'm either going Collins or down to Dell. Better options than Schultz and his 10% target share.
PIT@IND
Steelers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Colts have a bad P/RB matchup.
Fields has a good pass potential. Najee has a bad run potential.
Richardson has a bad pass potential. Taylor has a meh run potential.
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Colts TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- We are getting Najee without Warren! Possible 70%+ snap count incoming?!?! On the season his lowest opps was 19 (2 targets), and he recenetly hit 23 (5 targets), that alone but with an added/apparent rise in those numbers makes him attractive in the 5K range. They are really just telling Fields, do not turn the ball over, maybe we see a big game out of him if PIT falls behind by 1+ possessions in a game, but will we see that here as favorites? Idk, I'd only consider Pickens as he has a 25% target share/12 aDOT, and he is cheap enough.
Unless in a positive pass script, I don't think we see Richardson throw even 24+ times which will always concern me.... if you think they play from behind, he can get there off volume/his legs, but you have the right to be nervous, and idk if I can go there in this matchup. Because of this I dont think I'll be playing his pass catchers, but I want to point out that Pittman has a 30% target share and a 10.25 aDOT... if the pass attempts are there, he is WAY to cheap at 5.8K. Could I be talking into a Najee+PIT D and a Pittman bring back? Yes. Taylor has been running well, and finished last week with a 88% snap count, 25 opps (2 targets)... this is a tough matchup, and just 2 targets in a positive pass script concerns me for a guy thats priced as the RB3 the guys around him just project way better.
4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NEP@SFO
Patriots have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
49ers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Brissett has a meh pressure rate situation. Stevenson has a great run potential.
Purdy has a good pass potential.
Pats TTR is 24th (last/bad).
49ers TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 16th (last). O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).
- I just can't fathom the pats using stevenson like in week 3 as opposed to weeks 1/2 where he had 26+ opps, 4 targets/g avg. I am going to ride with him for 1 more week, while the spread/script projection is bad, his matchup isn't to shabby, and I'd assume check downs should be a plus for him. Hunter Henry is so range-y, for tournaments I get it, because 10+ target upside is hard to find in the 4K range, but obviously he has 2 catch downside. I'm not throwing a dart at these WRs wheere there are others with easier boards to hit, but 3 of the 4 are in the 3K price range so if you have some type of conviction (douglas?) go for it.
Mason is a workhorse with a 20+ touch floor, but his PPR upside is so limited and he's priced way to high for me, so I'll pass. With Deebo/Kittle back, we can look at weeks 1 and 2... deebo had a really good 33% target share, and a good 10 aDOT (which is NOT like prior years), there's injury concern/usage concern in that he may not be fully healthy, and he may not be needed in this matchup, so I don't feel comfortable paying 7K. Kittle comes in with no injury designation, and is 4th among TEs in relation to their teams target shares, he's one of the few TEs with ceiling potential, I understand why we would want to play him.
WAS@ARI
Commanders have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cards have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Daniels has a great pass potential. Br. Robinson has a good run potential.
Kyler has a great pass potential.
Commanders TTR is 8th.
Cards TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 15th (bad). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Br. Robinson has seen his snaps rise in every game this season, and now his breather in Ekeler is out. We may see 75%+ snap count here. He already was averaging between 16 to 20 opps, and almost 3 targets a game, you'd think those numbers slightly rise here and he's playing in the #1 o/u environment, I like that. Daniels has finished as the QB3 2 times already, while his price is beginning to reflect that, it still feels like a slight discount in a situation like this. To piggy off that, I love me some McLaurin. He has had a 24% target share through 3 weeks, with a really good 14.4 aDOT, and he's still in the 5K range, that is not going to last another week. The rest of the WRs are a revolving door, and all play a little bit, pass. I can talked into Ertz at 4K, he has a 17% target share, with a good te aDOT of 8.6, and would be my 2nd receiving option if looking at a big game/team stack.
Zona played in a neutral to positive passing script, and despite conner finishing at a season high 75% of snaps he was targeted just once (and only had 9 carries), yikes. Now they are favorites so maybe he pushed back to the 20~ touch range, but thats now 2 games out of 3 with just 1 target, and he isn't really discounted, I'd have to pass. Mi. Wilson/Dortch are playing a lot, and are cheap enough to dart throw but they are virtually the same player with a 9.2~ aDOT and 15 to 18% target share, I still think I'd stick to McBride's 24% target share and good TE aDOT of 8.8, or Harrison and his big 16 aDOT, and 25% target share, both of these guys can be boom candidates.
KCC@LAC
Chiefs have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chargers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Herbert has a bad pass potential.
Chiefs TTR is T-6th (good).
Chargers TTR is 22nd (bad).
Pace of play is 14th (bad), O/U Rank is T-9th (meh).
- In a mostly neutral game, Steele played 62% of snaps, and 19 opps (2 targets), that's much better than I thought it would have been, he is still in the 5K range, I have no issues if you wanted to target him. 4 WRs not named Rice had a 20 to 55% snap count... Rice had a 74% last week. Rice or nothing imo. He has a big time 34% target share from Mahomes. Kelce seems untouchable, I know he will have figure it out games, but a 14% target share, and a 6 aDOT at his price makes no sense.
While I wish Dobbins was still in the 5K range, he isn't to expensive, and is coming off his biggest snap share of the season, 65%, he's now had 2 games with 3 targets, and has averaged 18 opps his last 2, I think he is a fine play if you want to go here. These 3 WRs is anybody's guess, they are all priced within $200 of eachother, QJ leads in aDOT at 10.5, McConkey leads with a 27.5% target share, but Palmer also missed a game and a half and still is tied for the lead in RZ targets, while I think 1 will pay off, idk who.
CLV@LVR
Browns have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ford has a bad run potential.
Minshew? has a meh pass potential. Z. White has a bad run potential.
Browns TTR is T-17th (meh).
Raiders TTR is 21st (meh).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 12th (bad).
- We just saw what Dalton did to this team, why can't Watson? at 5.4K I don't mind it at all. Play whoever you can afford of Jeudy/Cooper, both have the RZ targets, both have aDOTs over 12. Cooper slightly more expensive, but has a 27% target share to Jeudys 20%. Moore is out there a lot, but his aDOT of 5.5 doesn't give us the boom potential we want. While Ford was out there a lot last week, 79%, he can definitely make me eat it in terms of the projected script, but I'll take my chances elsewhere.
Adams 25% target share now gone for today, we can expect all ships to rise. Bowers becomes very intriguing on PPR sites, as he already had a 20% target share. While I think Meyers sees an uptick in ownership, I'm all for Tre Tucker. He quietly had 13% target share with Adams in, while playing an average of 73% of snaps, we know from last year he has deep threat potential too, and he is in the 3K price range, I'm taking a shot. Pass on the backfield, nobody even got to 45% of snaps last week.
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