1 PMs/Main Slate
TEN/CLV
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Neutral pressure rate situations on both sides.
Titans TTR is T-19th (meh).
Browns TTR is T-13th.
O/U Rank is 11th (bad). Pace of play is 16th (last).
- Injuries - TEN - On D, S Hooker (83%) is Q, CB Fulton (32%) is Q, both were out last week. On O, T Skoronski is Q.
- CLV - On D, CB Newsome (87%) is Q. On O, obviously no RB Chubb.
- See Josh Kelley last week, but Ford is going to be a tough sell for me in tournaments. He is sooo cheap, has high projected volume, coming off a good stat line game, he is going to be VERY owned, and he could easily dud, or be limited PPR wise, especially with the signing of Hunt. I may have a share or two of him if I really want a big stack I can't afford, but we'll see. Titans can be had through the air, but because of the pace/O.U total, it makes me want to refrain from a watson stack, and maybe go for one-off catchers instead. Cooper/Moore are quietly the same player this year. They have 24.6/23.2% targetshare, and a 11.8/11.7 aDOT/r, but Moore comes in at 1K cheaper, it is who I lean (he's also played slightly more snaps too). I'll add, you could get DPJ at virtually 1% max ownership, and he has led the WRs in snaps for both games to start the year, you have to think eventually he gets involved, and it is better to be ahead of the curve than behind it... it is worth a shot in a lineup or two if mass entering and wanting to target this side for one-offs. We've seen Njokus snaps right from 73% to 85%, but across both games his highest targets are 4, the other 2 TEs on the roster do get some playing time, and his aDOT/r is a pedestrian 1.8, while being priced as the 6th best TE on the slate.... pass for me.
I was slightly worried about Henry week 1 as he played just 48% of snaps, but that ballooned right up last week to 71%, and maybe it will only go up from here, he turned the 71% snap count into 29 opp (4 targets).... that kind of volume is massive, and has slate breaking upside. While the matchup/pace/total all suck, I wouldn't cross him off a tourney list. The titans played 4 WRs between 46% and 68% of snaps, none had more than 5 targets, I don't want to be apart of that in this specific game and will pass for now. Chig falls in that too and he actually saw his snaps drop from week 1 to 2.
ATL/DET
Falcons have a good P/RB matchup.
Lions have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Ridder has a meh pressure rate situation.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation.
Falcons TTR is 12th.
Lions TTR is 9th (good).
O/U Rank is 4th. Pace of play is 10th.
- Injuries - ATL - On D, CB Okudah is Q, LB Andersen (99%) is Q (missed last week).
- DET - On D, DE Paschal (26%) is out for 2nd week, LB Houston (23%), S Gardner-Johnson (99%) are out, CB Moseley is Q. On O, WR St. Brown is Q, and RB Montgomery is Q. T Decker is Q.
- If you want to take a RB here, I think you need to paint the picture of how the game will play out. Bijan saw his snaps go from 63 to 72%, as the game difference was one where they led practically at the start of the 4th, vs being behind all game, even by 2 possession at the start of the 4th. The spread indicates more of Week 2 than Week 1... Bijan had 24 opps (5 targets) and totaled 172 yards, that's excellent and I wouldn't be afraid to fire him up, just know he's already the 3rd highest priced RB (2nd if Ekeler doesn't play). If you think they play with a lead then flip this, Allgeier is cheap enough, and would give great leverage to all the other low owned options that are going to be played, but idk if I go here. Ridder is dirt cheap, and if he is going to get around 10 rushes a game, and you think they'll be playing from behind, his 5K salary can easily pay off, I think he is a fine tourney option if mass entering. Atlanta WRs really do exist - they really do existtt - they're super risky, as any given week they may get 0 targets, but London/Hollins played 82/71% of snaps last week, and had 17/21% of targets, ya Hollins actually had more targets, and a bigger aDOT/r of 13.8 to 7.8. I think most people in this slate go low RBs, and big WRs, but if you wanted to flip that, london is cheap enough at 5K, and a fine option, but Hollins comes in at 3.5K and I think he is also viable. At TE, ATL plays both almost the same (Joonu/Pitts), but Pitts has a great aDOT/r of 12.3 with 17% target share to start the year, it is weird to say, but ATL has a lot of one-off options that are cheap this week, but there is risk.
I'm assuming Montgomery doesn't play, Gibbs saw his snaps go from 27 to 48% last week, and had 16 opps (9, NINE, targets). That is an insane floor for draftkings, and factor in an increased role with no montgomery, and the only arguement will be ownership %. We are unsure of St.Brown, but it is the Him and Reynolds show until further notice. Reynolds has a slightly smaller target share at 19.7% to St. Browns 24.2%, but his aDOT/r is good at 12.1, and he is still priced relatively cheap, I still want him this week (as I did last week), he also led the WR room in snaps as well. LaPorta seems like a safe option, he just isn't in the punt range, but he solidly finished as the TE8 on the week in PPR formats 2 weeks in a row, if you want to do a big game stack and include him, I get it, not sure if I will, but know ATL is in the bottom half in FPs given up to TEs.
NOS/GBP
Saints have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Carr has a bad pressure rate situation.
Love has a great pressure rate situation.
Saints TTR is T-15th (meh).
Packers TTR is 11th.
O/U Rank is T-9th (meh). Pace of play is 8th.
- Injuries - NOS - On O, RBs Williams is Q.
- GBP - On D, DE Van Ness (34%) is Q. On O, T Bakhtiari is Q, WR Watson is Q (but practiced), RB Jones is Q (didn't practice -- as of Wed).
- Assuming Jamaal doesn't suit up, and Miller does, I'll have some interest in Miller, but there comes risk, as we don't know how involved the remaining backs will be, so I get if you'd want to pass altogether the factor is Millers price being so low, and a pivot off the Kelley/Fords of the world. If both are active, I probably avoid it altogether. I hope this Carr led offense becomes concentrated, because it is looking that way. Olave/Thomas make up over 54% of the target share, and both have decent aDOT/rs of 8.6/9, I know the matchup isn't the greatest, and Olave is a bit overpriced, but at a minimum Thomas should be considered. Why take Shaheed as a 50%~ snap guy, when you can get someone like reynolds at the same price who is a WR2 (maybe 1 with no st.brown), more targets/adot/etc. I'm waiting for Johnson to break out, I prematurely dropped him in atleast 1 of my fantasy leagues --- oh well --- but he is averaging 4 targets, his snaps rose to 81% last week, and he is only 3.5K, I guess he is a decent punt option but it doesn't feel good clicking his name just yet.
Even without Jones last week, dillon had just 16 opps (1 target) on 68% of snaps, and his ypc isn't good... you think it'll get better vs saints? I don't, pass. The packers played 5 WRs last week, none lower than 20% (Heath), none more than 76% (Doubs), and now watson may be coming back.... so there is some uncertainty here, and it is a tough matchup, the guys below watson are kind of cheap, but you'd think all their numbers take a bit of a hit with Watson and I don't think I can chase it. Musgrave is even cheaper than Juwan Johnson, and also saw his snaps go up to 88% from 75%, that's great for the rookie!, If you want to dart throw here in a tourney I totally get it, especially with 2 mediocre stat lines to start the season.
DEN/MIA
Broncos have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Dolphins have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Russ has a bad pressure rate situation.
Tua has a great pressure rate situation.
Broncos TTR is T-13th.
Dolphins TTR is 4th (great).
O/U Rank is 2nd (good). Pace of play is 9th.
- Injuries - DEN - On D, S Simmons (100%), LB Clark (42%), and DT Purcell (33%) are all Q. On O, T Bolles is Q, obviously no Dulcich
- MIA - Miami has like 10+ people Q. On O, WRs Hill/Waddle, RB Ahmen, T Armstead are all Q. On D, LBs Phillips (90%)/Van Ginkel (75%), and DT Davis (54%) are Q.
- Perine/Jav Wills are in a true timeshare still, as none have played less than 45% of snaps or more than 50% of snaps in each week, but last week Perine had just 5 opps to Williams 15... I think either are off the table for me, but if you think Javonte eventually sees more playing time, and gets to 65-35~ even, he could easily see 20 touches and is pretty valuable then at 5.5K, on paper the matchup is great for him, and the OU is high, so I get it. With Jeudy back, Humphrey took the biggest hit... Sutton/Jeudy played 89/68% of snaps, and had 43% of the targets. I'm still taking a wait and see approach on Jeudy, as his aDOT/r was a measly 2.3, but Sutton alone had 26% of targets last week, with an aDOT/r of 10.6, and you get a much bigger discount than jeudy. He is who I'd play on this side. Don't chase Mims until his playing time increases, yes he had the 2 bombs, but he only played 24% of snaps... pass. Trautman is cheap for an 82% snap guy, but he isn't used in the passing game, I wouldn't go here.
Mostert is coming off a game with 73% of snaps and a good 19 opps (1 target), but that 1 target concerns me.... he is a decent pivot off of popular Tua stacks in this game environment, but if he doesn't go 100+ and 1+ he could easily dud your lineup, and I think you can go better directions. Assuming both play, Hill/Waddle are the only 2 WR options on this team. Cracraft/Berrios have great aDOT/rs, and Tua leads in airyards/a and yards/a, but unless one is out, pass. Hill is more than doubling Waddles target share through 2 games, while also having 5! RZ targets already, and an aDOT/r of 12.1, he is expensive, but Waddle is not enough of a discount... if you can play hill, you do it. Smythe went from 100% of snaps to 97% of snaps... I mentioned it in the showdown slate comments on sunday night, but he is a must grab if people are streaming TEs in fantasy. He is averaging just 5 targets, with a decent TE aDOT/r of 6.7, but he is only 2.9K, in a game with the #2 O/U, sign me up.
LAC/MIN
Chargers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Vikings have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation.
Chargers TTR is T-5th (great).
Vikes TTR is T-2nd (great).
O/U Rank is 1st (great). Pace of play is 2nd.
- Injuries - LAC - On D, 4 LBs are Q, 3 practiced limited. On O, RB Ekeler is Q.
- MIN - On D, LB Hicks (95%), and S Metullus (78%) are Q. On O C/T Bradbury/Darrisaw are Q.
- We have a game with a great pace, and the best O/U rank, and defenses that have some flaws. I would obviously love to lock in Ekeler if he was playing, but we have Kelley instead. He ran into a tough spot last week, and I was happy to fade him, but he still played 73% of snaps, but had just 14 opps (1 target). The one target concerns me, but the environment is to good, and he is obviously still cheap, he has to be part of your list of choices. Who loves concentration? We love concentration.... Allen/Williams combined for over 50% target share on this team.... they're nearly identical, but Allen has double the RZ targets (4), and actually leads the 2 in aDOT/r with 10 compared to 6 --- is he finally healthy for the first time ever? Not sure, but either way I think both are viable here. If you wantt to be different in a tourney/create leverage, Palmer is the WR3, not Johnston (yet atleast), not sure if I go here, but just something to consider. I'm done with Everett in LAC for the foreseeable future. They played 3 TEs last week and none had more than 50%, or less than 32% of snaps... if you want to talk me into Parham at 2.7K I can be convinced for tourneys, but otherwise pass, and don't go overboard with it.
Mattison ran into 2 tough run defenses, in matchups where they were playing from behind for most of the games.... so his rushing stats look bad, but his 5 targets a game is a nice boost, and he has had a 2nd straight week in a reduction of price. The acquisition of Akers creates even more uncertainty with him, but idk what his involvement will be this week (I personally think minimal)....call me crazy, but I think Mattison can be a sneaky good tourney play at a very low ownership %, in a game that is the best environment on the slate, where everyone will be hammering the other positions. Now that doesn't mean I don't like other pieces. I'll start with Addison/Osborn... on paper, Addison looks great, he has had 11 targets to osborns 12, a great aDOT/r of 15 (to osborns decent 8.5), and saw his snaps increase from 56 to 69%. My problem, is I'd argue that snap increase could be a product of trailing by 2+ possession to philly for the entirety of a half, while Osborn has been over 90% both weeks, and is only 4K compared to Addisons 5.5K!, give me osborn until it officially changes. JJ is out there all day, Cousins is 3rd in y/a and 7th in airy/a, while being 3rd in pass attempts --- again some of that is attributed to playing from behind both games but still --- now even in a deep in attempts, JJ's floor is 10 targets (averaging 12.5), with 100 receiving yards (10.3 aDOT/r), I get he is super expensive, and I am trying to get cute with Mattison, so i'll be underweight, but I'll never talk anyone out of playing him entirely. Hockenson has supreme usage with a 20% target share on the team, but his aDOT/r is a measly 3.6, and he is the 2nd highest priced at his position, I think this is a week where you'd want salary relief, but even if you didn't... we have andrews right below him, and kelce right above him... probably passing myself.
NEP/NYJ
Patriots have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jets have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Z. Wilson has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pats TTR is T-15th (meh).
Jets TTR is 23rd (bad).
O/U Rank is 12th (last). Pace of play is 1st.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, CB M. Jones (34%) is out, DT Barmore (50%), & CB J. Jones (80%) are Q. On O, 4 lineman are Q, WR Parker is Q.
- NYJ - On D, LB Williams (98%), S Carter (57%), DE Franklin-Myers (56%) are all Q, and S Adams (64%) is out. On O, G Schweitzer is out, 2 T's are Q, RB Hall and K Zuerlein are Q.
- We have a weird contradictory game on deck. It is the worst O/U of the slate, mixed with the best pace of the slate .Too add, the DVOA matchups for the QBs are above average, and there are a ton of defensive question marks in terms of injured players. My point is, maybe you can get some big leverage in tournaments attacking this game when nobody else will be. I know the pats are finally faves, but I want to add that mac jones has the most pass attempts in the league through the first 2 weeks, devante parker played 100% of snaps last week, and finished with a 19% target share (8), he only costs 3.8K, even in a closely contested match, it doesn't take much to pay off that salary, and nobody that price has as much upside, I'll be overweight --- maybe Jets catch some lucky breaks so pats play from behind again. Bourne and Juju both didn't reach 60% of snaps with parker back, they were still targeted respectively, but they are more expensive, and obviously have bigger 0 burger chances, I'll pass. I think henry is a fine option, his price is over 4K for a TE, but he has an aDOT/r of 11 so far this season, and obviously gets RZ targets, so I get it --- he also is coming off a game he played 92% of snaps, I'll note that Gesicki is just like Henry with slightly less opportunity, as his aDOT/r is 10.3, and saw his snaps rise to 72%, but he is a truer punt option as his is just 2.9K and truthfully will be lower than 1% owned, so I get going here for relief/mass entering lineups too.
Hall/Cook/Carter all played in the 30% range of snaps last week, OUCH. I think these guys are unplayable until hall or cook misses time. Yes they are cheap, but you can't predict who is getting it with certainty... pass. Pass on Cobb/Hardman, they don't play enough, and are such a tiny part of the target % (combined less than 7%). Wilson/Lazard is where you start and end. Both saw over 90% of snaps last week, while wilson is obviously the alpha at a 30% target share, Lazard is not far behind at 19%, considering he is about 1/3rd cheaper, while I don't mind one-offing here as they'll be so low owned, Lazard seems like a better option if doing a mini stack/one-off from this game. I won't be playing him, but Conklin is priced ok for a TE that is virtually always on the field, and has a 16% target share.
BUF/WAS
Bills have a meh P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a bad pressure rate situation.
Bills TTR is 8th (good).
Commanders TTR is 18th (meh).
O/U Rank is 6th. Pace of play is 15th.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, LB Bernard (94%), DE Floyd (47%), and S Hyde (93%) are all Q. On O, T Brown, and TE Knox are Q.
- WAS - On D, DT Payne (79%) is Q. On O, TE Thomas is out.
- I am not sure what I want to do with Allen in this matchup. For starters, the pace sucks, and the matchup is meh, but Wilson just went for 300+ pass, 50+ rushing, with a 3-1 td ratio.... that would more than 3X Allen's salary. Plus at his price, people will just go up to mahomes or down to lamar/herbie, I don't want to go overboard here, but I atleast want a piece just incase. Cook is now at B2B games with 59% of snaps, while averaging 19,5 opps (5 targets). I think his price is a touch to high to feel comfortable clicking, especially when Josh Allen can also vulture, but I can be talked into playing him, I'll probably pass. Diggs/Davis are the only 2 WRs worthy of consideration, Diggs has a 26.7% target share (10t's/g), with a good aDOT/r of 9.9, while Davis is at 15% with a big aDOT/r of 18.3, if you want to go diggs, great, but the salary relief of Davis seems better, and his upside is right there with him. Probably not playing either TE as they eat into eachother, but Knox is a tad cheaper, plays a tad more, and probably goes lower owned of the two, otherwise they are practically similar, and I don't really want to play a guessing game.
Robinson last week where they trailed by 3 possessions, saw his snaps drop from 61 to 52%, but he still had 18 carries and 3 targets, week 1 he also had 21 opps (2), a 20 touch guy under 6K is always viable. PPR formats he likely has a lower than comfortable floor, but I'm fine if you go here. Howell is cheap, his WRs are cheap, he is likely to be playing from behind, Thomas's 17.5% target share should be getting dispersed to these cheapies. Samuel plays enough to be happy about, but when compared to the big dogs (dotson/mclaurin), his aDOT/r and upside stink, pass. McLaurin/Dotson both have aDOT/rs over 11, my gut says to go with mclaurin over dotson, but I'm fine with either. I was going to say to pass on the TEs after thomas injury, but Bates actually saw 52% of snaps --- thomas got hurt prior to end of half (even 37% with thoams healthy week 1) and he finished with 5 targets (14.7% target share) and a great aDOT/r of 11.7, he's only 2.8K, and again, the script should be favorably... he will be on my punt option for one-offs.
HOU/JAC
Texans have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Neutral pressure rate situations on both sides.
Texans TTR is 22nd (meh).
Jags TTR is 7th (great).
O/U Rank is T-7th. Pace of play is 3rd.
- Injuries - HOU - On D, CBs Stingley (98%)/Thomas (69%) are both doubtful, S/LB Pire (45%)/Perryman (98%) are Q. and DT ridgeway is out for a 2nd week.
- JAC - On D, DT Fatukasi (46%), S Wingard (24%), and DE Allen (68%) are all Q. On O, WR Z. Jones is Q.
- Ok so I know Stroud is a rookie, but come on! He is just 5.3K, is in another positive project game script (like all year probably), is 3rd in pass attempts to start the year, and in the top half of yards/a, and air yards/a, and amazingly has been really good and not making mistakes. Oh, I forgot, the pace is also fantastic, and jags may be without a great DE in Allen. Sorry Howell and Co. but he may be my favorite cheap QB of the week. I think you can make a case for any of the WRs (Collins/Woods/Dell), they all have great aDOT/rs, but I will add that Dell saw a huge snap increase from Week 1 to 2 -- 48% to 79%, Woods saw a slight increase from 75 to 86%, and collins saw a drop from 71% to 62%. What also adds to that, is collins has seen a price increase week to week, while woods has seen a drop from week to week, and dell is still dirt cheap. I'd rather go with Woods/Dell this week and leave Collins hanging. I know one game Schultz is going to break out, but I'll save him for maybe 1 lineup if I game stack this a lot on sunday, because he is definitely the 4th option at best on this team for Stroud, and while he does dominate the TE snaps, there are 2 others that play too, he went from 81 to 71% of snaps last week. I don't feel good clicking it.
Now I know Lawrence dud'd some lineups last week, so I hope that supresses ownership, but HOU will be without 2 of their top corners most likely, and possibly some other secondary pieces, and he has a little bit of a rushing floor which is nice (averaging 6-23.5), he will definitely remain in my player pool. Ridley and Kirk make up about 50% of the target share, and Zay's 18% could possibly be dispersed/reduced as he deals with a knee injury. Ridley has a massive aDOT/r of 17.3, and I will look to play him, but Kirk is a fine pivot. I think Engram is a safe floor guy with some upside, but he is always priced in that weird spot where you'd rather just punt down or rise up, I'll consider him more if Zay sits. IF Lawrence fails, it will most definitely be because Etienne shined. He is averaging a 76% snap count, T-7th best among all RBs, averaging 19 opps (4 targets)/game. I will be getting pieces of these game in most lineups, and will definitely be atelast a pivot option for me off the jag passing attack, especially considering they could easily be playing with a 2+ possession lead.
IND/BAL
Colts have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Ravens have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is 17th (meh).
Ravens TTR is T-5th (great).
O/U Rank is 5th. Pace of play is 4th.
- Injuries - IND - On D, DT Stewart (57%), and CB Moore (99%) are Q. On O, no QB Richardson, no C Kelly, and G Nelson is Q.
- BAL - On D, S Washington (82%) is out, and CB/S/DE Humphrey/Williams(31%)/Oweh (46%) are Q. On O, C/T Linderbaum/Stanley are Q, RB/WR Hill/OBJ are Q.
- Moss played 98% of snaps last week, 2nd to only CMC. He had 22 opps (4 targets), the targets are pretty significant, being that they led by ATLEAST 2+ possessions throughout. 3 of those 4 targets did come with Minshew too, so even in a negative game script, he might even see more targets (and a reception prop should be in the works), oh and he is only 5.5K, yes please. I feel like Pittman continues to move along quietly and nobody respects him.... the guy has b2b double digit target games, again, in a game they lead by 2+ possessiosn throughout. 10 of his 12 targets last week came from Minshew through just 3 quarters. He ended with a 39% target share, and he played 98% of snaps. He honestly should be considered every week, but you can argue Minshew will be an upgrade for him (maybe). Pierce actually had a 100% snap count, and Downs had 75%, yet they had 7 targets combined... they are definitely cheap enough for a tournament dart throw if mass entering, especially with nobody clicking Pierce's name, but I understand if you want to avoid it completely. Colts play 3 TE's the most utilized is Granson and he is over 3K, there are better punt options, just pass.
If Hill is out, I have no problem keeping Gus Bus in your player pool, but just know he has had 0 targets through 2 games, and Edwards and Hill combined last week had just 21 rush attempts total, despite playing with at least a small lead throughout. Add in the possibility of Lamar vultures, I'll most likely let others chase the hill injury upside of gus bus. I don't see how you can click bateman and his 3 targets/g, If OBJ is out, which is likely, I think we have 2 options at WR, The higher priced Flowers (but still cheap over all), and his massive 28% target share, or Agholor, who after OBJ went down, ended up leading the group in targets (6), and a big aDOT/r of 20.4... oh and he is almost min priced (3K) at 3.2K... he is definitely a top option salary relief player with all the dynamite guys people want to play. Andrews came back and asserted his dominance Week 2... finishing with a 24.2% target share (3rd among all TEs), and a good TE aDOT/r of 8.4, he actually saw a price decrease, now he still is a pretty price to pay at the TE position, but if you wanted to be different, he is fully playable.
4PMs/Main Slate
CAR/SEA
Panthers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Young has a good pressure rate situation.
Panthers TTR is T-19th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 10th (good).
O/U Rank is T-9th (meh). Pace of play is 11th.
- Injuries - CAR - On D, no CB Horn (38%) for 2nd week, no LB Thompson (53%), and LB Houston (57%) is Q. On O, no QB Young.
- SEA - On D, CB Bryant (77%) is out, CB Woolen (63%) is doubtful, Ss Love (100%)/Diggs(100%)/Adams, and DT Reed (69%) are all Q. On O, T Cross is out, TE Dissly is doubtful, RB Dallas is Q, and WR Metcalf is Q (although fully practiced friday).
- A ton to digest here with injuries, important ones too. Am I crazy that the red rifle may actually be viable in tourneys? He is only 4.9K, Seattle has already allowed b2b 300 yard passers, are probably down 2 of their corners, and maybe a few safeties... at that price, if he gets to 300 with even 2 TDs, you can argue 4x'ing his price is a floor....the best part? Not only is he cheap, all 3 of his WRs are under 4K (the minimum is 3K.... I know I shit talked thielen last week and he pulled up a 9 target performance, but he still has the lowest aDOT/r of the bunch, and I believe dalton is willing to throw the ball a little bit further down the field than Young in his first 2 career starts. I'm trusting in Mingo again, with probably a share or two of Chark. I think Hurst is fine here if you're doing some time of team/game stack, he is averaging 5 targets with an aDOT/r of 8.8, which is good for a TE, but he also hasn't surpassed 55% of snaps, which does give me a little bit of pause. I know I can't full attack this game/love it, as this is CAR/SEA and the pace and o/u aren't the greatest, but Sanders is in a good spot too, he has some concerns with a looming injury, but he is was too cheap, arguably has the best matchup of the bunch, and is averaging 21.5 opps (5.5 targets) a game, that combo is amazing for all RBs, let alone one that is below 6K, hard to pass up.
Walker is coming into a matchup where they are home faves, averaging 18 opps (3.5 targets), and going against Andy Dalton.... If you think turnovers are going to be had, in a positive run script, he could easily go for 100+ 2+, and regardless has a safe floor going against one of the worst teams vs the run so far. At WR, Njigba is way to expensive for his tiny 3.1 aDOT/r, and not hitting even 60% of snaps yet. I'll only be playing 1 of these 2 at WR if I go here, as I know the matchup is not perfect, plus we've seen genos range already this year and the bad can be bad. Metcalf is who I lean with a great aDOT/r of 16, but lockett is in double digits too, and unlike last year, they so far both have a proportionate RZ target distribution (metcalf dominated that last year). So I won't argue either way this week. 0 reason to chase TE here... they play 3, all 3 played between 47 and 51% of snaps last week... yes that's right....pass.
CHI/KCC
Bears have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Fields has a meh pressure rate situation.
Mahomes has the best pressure rate situation.
Bears TTR is 21st (meh).
Chiefs TTR is 1st (great).
O/U Rank is 3rd (good). Pace of play is 6th.
- Injuries - CHI - On D, CB Gordon (45%) is out for 2nd week, S Jackson (59%) is doubtful. On O, G Davis is Q.
- KCC - On D, LB Bolton (88%) is out, and LB Yag (63%) is Q. On O, RB Pacheco is Q, WR Toney is Q, and WR James is out.
- How can we be happy clicking a Chicago RB? Even with Foreman inactive last week, Herbert and Roschon saw their snaps increase, yet there opps went down. Now this game is 3rd in O/U, and the pace is decent, plus the 2 of them have a combined 17 targets already, so I get there maybe is some type of floor in PPR formats, but idk if I can do it, keep in mind Fields SHOULD start to see some more run plays and is always a vulture candidate. I don't know which, but I have to think at least ONE of the CHI WRs should be a great play this week. The hard part is finding out who. Week 1 with Mooney they all actually played no less than 78% of snaps, while I think Moore is the obvious answer, Claypool is a super cheap dart throw that has a big aDOT/r of 21 (albeit a small sample size), so I don't hate the idea of even one-offing him for some salary relief. Kmets price hasn't come down, but his snaps have (97% to 68%) as Tonyan is getting slightly more involved now, I know the script sets up well for at least one of these guys to do really well, but I think bother with Kmet at the moment, and I can see him being a more popular bring back on mahomes stacks.
I feel like everyone is going to be licking their chops to play mahomes, they have the best TTR, he is involved in practically all of there production, and even when he looked human the first 2 weeks (to his standard at least) he still is averaging 22.5~ fantasy points, so even in a good not great game, can he go over 30? probably, I wanted to say I was going to just completely avoid him, and maybe one-off his players, because at 8.3K he definitely needs to get to 30 to payoff, but he could so I'll dabble. Having said that, I'll probably be underweight, because there is a real chance he doesn't even play much into the 4th, or if a couple of defensive TDs OR rushing TDs happen early, it could hinder that 30+ point game from even happening. I won't be doing it a ton, but I think it is a viable tourney route to go Pacheco + KC Def in this matchup as a direct pivot to the popular mahomes stacks. I wouldn't go overboard, as he is just averaging 13 opps a game, and 51% of snaps has been his peak so far, but you can argue this week those are absolute floors. The chiefs played 6 WRs last week, with no James, I'm assuming Ross will be active, so the problem still presists. MVS was the only one over 58% of snaps at 82%, and while his target share has stunk, I'd rather be on the field more often than not with Mahomes throwing to me... eventually he will have a breakout game, and he is the one I lean to the most. That being said, if you wanted to dart throw another one on this team, I wouldn't be shocked if any hit a HR so idk if I can advise on it for DFS purposes. Kelce came back and was still slightly limited, playing just 64% of snaps, but he finished with 9 targets still, and a sexy aDOT/r of 13.3, you can argue the targets/snaps are floors, and if you really want to go another route than Mahomes at QB, you can still one-off Kelce and probably get at least a majority of the Mahomes production.
DAL/ARI
Cowbys have a good P/RB matchup.
Cardinals have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dobbs has a bad pressure rate situation.
Cowboys TTR is T-2nd (great).
Cards TTR is 24th (last).
O/U Rank is T-7th. Pace of play is 12th.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, Diggs (86%) is out. On O, C/G Biadasz/Martin are Q.
- ARI - On D, LBs/S Collier (52%)/Woods(55%), Baker (100%) are out for 2nd week, DT Watkins (31%) is out, DT Fotu (24%) is Q.
- We don't truly know the raw data stats on dallas because they have dominated both of their games so far. Having said that, this may be the best matchup for their offense yet. Pollard has played about 64% of snaps for this team, averaging 25 opps (5.5 targets), with a big 33 opps game last week vs jets (where the first half was almost within one possession throughout). Even still, the game scripts really couldn't be worse for a guy to sit/get more rest than typical, and he is just trotting along. Having said that, he is the most expensive back, and I can see why it will be hard to fit him in. You can apply those things I said about pollard and attach it to Lamb even harder, as the argument to throw in those situations is even worse, but what we do like is he has had a great 27% target share, and we know he's an alpha. Cooks being out last week didn't change the role of lamb/gallup and if the fear of the script/cooks returning supresses his ownership, I think Lamb is worthy of being kept in your player pool. Ferguson is cheap enough to consider, especially when seeing 11 of his 7 targets are in the redzone, while still sporting a 17.7% target share overall, no problem one-offing him or mini stacking but I do have to add that they do play 3 TEs, but the others really seem to just be blockers/distractions, as they have just 2 targets combined....
Conner is a workhorse, we know he can handle targets in negative scripts, I'm just not sold on clicking him mid range priced with all the other options, so I'll probably pass, but fine if you want to go here and take a chance. I don't think I can take a shot on Wilson as a dart throw this week as his snaps plummeted greatly last week, the only guy I'd trust if looking for volume is hollywood, as he played 94% of snaps last week, and has a 25% target share on this team, he is a relatively safe floor guy with those numbers. Can we talk about Ertz, I mentioned last week that he should be considered to be picked up if the trend continues, and it is continuing, he is 3.5K, but has a massive 30.5% target share, averaging 72% of snaps, with a good aDOT/r of 10.8... what is happening?! If he continues to average 9 targets a game for the rest of the season, he will finish as a top 5 TE (currently 6th going into the week without a TD ).... that is at most what I'd have here, but overall, I'll be very limited in exposure.
