DFS/Props Week 2

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Yo yo,

so my computer updated on me when I had a typed up thing/3 games done... great.

Long story short as possible, this weeks data will be based off this years information (so week 1 for now)..... keep that in mind when you see someone like Patriots this week in a bad DVOA spot vs a Pittsburgh team without tj watt, as that changes some things.. This information will get more accurate with time. This pertains to DVOA/ASR/ALY/PoP (pace of play).

Also, the team totals, and o/u information was based off lines from yesterday/earlier today, so a line may have moved by .5, or 1 point which technically could shift a team up or down a rank (probably not more, and honestly its probably accurate right now anyways.

as a reminder, a ? may mean a uncertainty in snap count/timeshare, an injury concern, or a I forget who it was, is it him?

lets get into it.

1PMs

CAR/NYG

Carolina has the T16th TTR (/24)
Giants are 13th in TTR
Panthers have a great DVOA matchup vs P, and a meh one vs RB.
Giants have a great DVOA matchup vs RB, meh vs P.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup, Barkley has a good ALY matchup.
Pace of play is 9th (/12), and O/UR is 8th (/12).

- Keep it quick, if you want to one-off a carolina WR I won't talk you off of it. It is the Giants, having said that we have bad TT's, bad pace, bottom half O/U, and I don't think its necessary. For the Giants, I don't want anyone else other than Barkley. He has a good ALY matchup, a great DVOA matchup, he's situation proof. Giants have a lead/neutral situation, they'll use him, if they're behind, they'll dump it off (especially if we project jones to not have much time in the pocket. Sign me up.

NEP/PIT

Pats have the 14th TTR
Pit has the 19th.
Pats have a bad P/RB matchup.
Pit has a good P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Mac has a meh ASR matchup. D. Harris has a bad ALY matchup
N. Harris has a bad ALY matchup (both are actually the worst).
Pace of play is 10th, O/U is T-10th.

- I know I mentioned above that watt is out, and to bump up the matchup a smidge, but its still something we want to avoid. The pace sucks, the TT's/OU sucks. Would it surprise me if a pats player has 2+ tds, no... but which one? I don't trust Najees workload, while adding a not so great matchup. Overall pass.

TBB/NOS

TBB has the T-10th TTR
NOS has the T-16th TTR.
Bucs have a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Saints have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Winston has a bad ASR matchup.
Brady has a great ASR matchup. Fournette has a great ALY matchup.
Pace is 7th, O/U is 7th.

- Middle of the road pace/ou, but still a good spot. Fournette for me could be a great take. He has a great ALY matchup, great DVOA matchup, he's a workhorse, his ownership will be reduced to do the injury concern, and have a great workload/timeshare week 1. Saints let Atlanta RB Patterson have 120 yards, and a 5.5 ypc average (to go with 3 catches too)...... hard to pass here.
I also think with the injuries at WR, you may be able to get a cheapie thats in a higher role.

NYJ/CLV

NYJ has the 23rd TTR.
CLV has the 12th TTR.
Jets have a good RB matchup, and bad P matchup
Browns also have a good RB matchup, and bad P matchup
Brissett has a good ASR matchup,
Flacco? has a bad ASR matchup.
Pace is 4th, O/U is 12th.

- Here's one where you need to make a decision, Jets were top dogs in Sec/Play, and top quarter in Pace in neutral situations (So within 1 possession either way). Browns were just below the middle of the pack but not as bad as past years. So does the pace from week 1 support a higher than posted O/U? The problem is the QBs at play here, and the defenses that may be a bit better than these offenses right now. Browns really had 2 bad 50+ yard plays that allowed carolina to get 14 of its 24 points, Jets held balty in check for 3~ quarters. I think I would go for one-offs here at best in GPPs as a broken play isn't out of question, maybe a chubb/hunt/peoples-jones, and/or any jet player. Just seeing now Hall AND Carter had 9 targets, sheesh. But moore/wilson/davis all were 7-10 targets too, and that flacco had 59 pass attempts, jesus. If you think they fall behind, one of those backs or WRs is definitely a cheap goodie.

MIA/BAL

MIA has the 18th TTR
BAL has the 8th TTR
MIA has a meh P/RB matchup.
BAL has a good RB, bad P matchup.
Edmonds has a bad ALY matchup.
Drake? has a meh ALY matchup.
Pace is 11th, O/U is 6th.

- Another one where what do you believe, the shitty pace, or the decent O/U. I'll never tell you not to play lamar, as being a dual threat gives you a solid floor, but a ceiling not many can match. My gut tells me Andrews will bounce back, but I won't go crazy.... I also thing you can take a shot with a Hill or Waddle with no fuller, Balty let up 10+ yard catches to jet receivers getting the ball from statue Flacco, Tua and company could be a bit better here. Not going overboard but if mass entering, I think its worth sprinkling them in... these guys have been slate breakers in the past (Lamar/Andrews/Waddle/Hill), ---- Side note, in neutral situation, ravens actually played quicker than you realize, but they got up 2 scores early in the 3rd, and there secs/play got slowwwwwwwwwwwwww, so if you think its a close game, that bodes well for fantasy production.

WAS/DET

WAS has the 9th TTR
DET has the 4th TTR.
WAS has a great P/RB matchup.
DET has a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Wents has a great ASR matchup.
Swift has a great ALY matchup.
Pace is 3rd, O/U 2nd.

- Game stack here. Great pace, Great O/U, Great matchups. Swift (or jamal?), Goff + St. Brown/Chark. Wentz threw 4 tds last week, and wasn't scared to heave it, Gibson had 21 touches, but there's a lot to go around. I still think Mclaurin over samual/dotson, but make a case for whomever...either way, a chunk of my lineups will have this game in some fashion.

IND/JAC

IND has the 7th TTR.
JAC the 15th TTR.
IND has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
JAC has a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lawrence has a meh ASR matchup, Robinson? has a good ALY matchup.
Ryan has a great ASR matchup.
Pace is T-1st, O/U is 4th.

- I don't know if I have the cahones to fully game stack this one, but we have WR cheapies with no Pittman, while Ryan is in a great mtchup, Dulin could be good. I won't talk anyone off Taylor, he had 31 carries (only 4 were in OT), so he picked up where he left off... and another 25+ touch performance isn't out of question, but idk if he's necessary. I think a Kirk or Jones bring back is fine, both had a good target share (55% combined of lawrence's targets went to one of those 2).

4pms in the morning
 
Remember what fish did to Lamar last year? They came out playing 3 safeties and pretty much shut him down on a Thursday night I think, maybe? Fish kept the same dc, both teams play slow, I really like ravens tt u24.5 and I’m even liking lamar under rush yards! He didn’t look real anxious to run or very spry last week (is it me or he looking a bit puffy?), is it the contract? Not sure you should bet on yourself then not perform your best? All I know fish had a great plan for him last year and now I think the offense more equipped to keep ball out of his hands. I expect Miami gonna try to run but I don’t even know who their feature back gonna be? I don’t think this a very good game for dfs purposes, both these teams gonna end up way low on pace of play I think, really like the under.
 
All a sudden Washington has a interesting group of wrs on the outside! Samuel and the rookie Dotson to go with mcclarren is pretty damn good, wentz will obviously turn it over a few times but that will just force him to throw it more! Is a ron Rivera team really gonna turn into something resembling a high scoring passing defense? I like lot of ppl in this game, wentz ov 1.5 td passes, swift to score, pick your wr of choice.
 
2daBank said:
All a sudden Washington has a interesting group of wrs on the outside! Samuel and the rookie Dotson to go with mcclarren is pretty damn good, wentz will obviously turn it over a few times but that will just force him to throw it more! Is a ron Rivera team really gonna turn into something resembling a high scoring passing defense? I like lot of ppl in this game, wentz ov 1.5 td passes, swift to score, pick your wr of choice.
Click to expand...
Fairly convinced it's a high scoring game
 
It sure would be nice if saints would unleash Winston before the 4th qrtr when they had no choice last week! They got all those weapons and Bucs tough to run on anyways. I’d love to see that but gotta worry these morons continue playing conservative. Gotta like fournette w way he looked and the way atl ran on saints.
 
4PMs

ATL/LAR

ATL has the 20th TTR.
LAR has the T1st TTR.
ATL has a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
LAR has a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Stafford has a bad ASR matchup.
Mariota has a great ASR matchup, Patterson has a good ALY matchup.
The pace is T-5th, 3rd O/U Rank.

- This could be a case of overacheiving week 1 stats for ATL, and under for LAR. Or it could be a sign of things to come. We know Kupp has slate breaking upside. Do we fully trust henderson over Akers? Either way, we have a healthy pace/OU. Mariota is a dual threat, and could be a sneaky cheap option in what could be a scenario where they are constantly playing from behind. I think a 1 for 1 game stack is an option over a full game/team stack (so like a Kupp+London, or Henderson+Pitts, etc. But I'll probably have 1 or 2 mariota + wr, and/or Kupp/Henderson stack.

SEA/SFO

SEA has the 24th TTR.
SFO has the T5th TTR.
SEA has a meh P/RB matchup.
SFO has a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Geno has a meh ASR matchup, Penny has a meh ALY matchup.
Lance has a good ASR matchup, Wilson? has a good ALY matchup.
Pace is 12th (dead last), O/U is T10th.

- Idk, I guess wilson is cheap enough, kittle will go very low owned, and deebo can be great, but I don't love it, I'd target them as one-offs in lineups you're building. SFO defense can of course be considered, especially if we think geno is more like his last 10 years instead of his last week. (we do, right?)

HOU/DEN

HOU has the 22nd TTR.
DEN has the 3rd TTR.
HOU has a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
DEN has a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Wilson has a good ASR matchup, Javonte? has a great ALY matchup.
Burkhead? has a meh ALY matchup.
Pace is 8th, O/U is 5th.

- Big spread here, as much as I want wilson with this kind of teamtotal and price, I think the game can get out of hand, and the broncos were 25th in sec/play, and 29th in neutral situations.... I will have me some Javonte (maybe 1 gordon), but won't go completely overboard. PPR formats could be good to Cooks or Collins, but I'd cut it there.

ARI/LVR

ARI is T10th in TTR.
LVR is T1st in TTR.
ARI's P matchup is great, rb matchup is bad.
LVR's P matchup is great, RB matchup is good.
Kyler has a good ASR matchup, Conner has a bad ALY matchup.
Pace is T-5th, O/U is 1st.

- This will be the highest owned stacked game IMO, so I don't want to go overboarrd, but I think you can definitely take pieces. One thing that helps in being lower in ownership is that Arizona actually was dead last in pace when in neutral situations (which last week was only for 17~ minutes, as they were vs the chiefs, and then they amped it up. However, If you do think there's a scenario where raiders are up 8+, this can turn into a shootout.... and the line suggests it could happen. If you can fit the Adams of the world, I think you do it.

CIN/DAL

CIN is T5th in TTR.
DAL is 21st in TTR.
CIN has a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
DAL has a meh P matchup, and bad RB matchup.
Burrow has a bad ASR matchup.
Zeke? has a bad ALY matchup.
Pace is T-1st, despite O/U being 9th.

- Here's one where the injury changes a lot. Cincy was in the top half of pace, but dallas was one of the top dogs, does that change with rush??, If so, this game plays a bit differently. We saw what PITT did to cincy, Dallas was opportune last year too. I'll mostly avoid this match... but if yo uwant to put in 1 lineup with a game stack, especially if you think Rush can be serviceable, you'll probably put together a lineup where you can fit some other expensive guys in other places (lets say you go Rush+Schultz with Boyd for example)
 
1 pmers I like.

A. Dulin Rec. Yds O34.5 -115 2.3-2

D. Peoples-Jones Receptions O3.5 +125 1-1.25
L. Fournette Rush&Rec O97.5 -115 1.15-1
S. Barkley Rush&Rec O110.5 -115 1.15-1
A. Gibson Rec Yds O20.5 -120 1.2-1

tried to do 1 a game but some I didn't care for, and some I liked more than 1 prop... but just posting these for now.
 
what a bomb by barkley he was very high owned in DFS, so it actually helped a bit.

4pmers

J. Williams Rush Yds O57.5 -115 2.3-2
CD Lamb Receptions O4.5 -125 2.5-2

J. Wilson Rush Yds O48.5 -115 1.15-1
Mariota Pass TDs O1.5 +170 1-1.7 (I think i saw someone else like this)
G. Dortch Rec Yds. O42.5 -115 1.15-1
 
ScopeY said:
1 pmers I like.

A. Dulin Rec. Yds O34.5 -115 2.3-2

D. Peoples-Jones Receptions O3.5 +125 1-1.25
L. Fournette Rush&Rec O97.5 -115 1.15-1
S. Barkley Rush&Rec O110.5 -115 1.15-1
A. Gibson Rec Yds O20.5 -120 1.2-1

tried to do 1 a game but some I didn't care for, and some I liked more than 1 prop... but just posting these for now.
Click to expand...

ScopeY said:
what a bomb by barkley he was very high owned in DFS, so it actually helped a bit.

4pmers

J. Williams Rush Yds O57.5 -115 2.3-2
CD Lamb Receptions O4.5 -125 2.5-2

J. Wilson Rush Yds O48.5 -115 1.15-1
Mariota Pass TDs O1.5 +170 1-1.7 (I think i saw someone else like this)
G. Dortch Rec Yds. O42.5 -115 1.15-1
Click to expand...

ScopeY said:
Aj Dillon Rush&Rec O67.5 -120 2.4-2
Click to expand...

6-5 +2.8

missed dillon by 1 yard... let me know if we see a stat correction lol.

2 games tomorrow, lets get it
 
peelpub94 said:
Eagerly awaiting tonight's breakdown!
Click to expand...
I'm in the middle of working unfortunately.

Let me see what I can phone do, so excuse the format.

TEN/BUF

Titans have a bad match-up vs P/RB
Bills have a great rb match-up, had p match up.
Allen has a bad ASR match-up
Tanny has a meh ASR match-up, Henry has a meh ALY match-up.
Pace is 14th(/16).

- from a dfs perspective, it's a 2 game slate. If we are entering 1 lineup, you need to be a bit contrarion starting with Henry makes a LOT of sense. He's on a team that's 10 point underdogs, with the lowest TT and slower pace of the 2. And he's expensive, while most people will want to jam the big guns from the other game (or Diggs/Allen here). From a game theory, it makes sense to gain leverage like that. Im going burks over woods but no real feel there. I think Knox props I like the most, no Davis, and no Sweeney (his direct backup). He has a realistic chance to 95%~ of snaps on the team with the highest team total. Crowder/Mckenzie both fit as cheapies. And moss could be a correlation if you're banking on a Titans game where they lead/Henry rocks.
 
I actually am building around Henry for the same reasons. Beyond that it really feels like rolling the dice for all of the other selections.
 
peelpub94 said:
I actually am building around Henry for the same reasons. Beyond that it really feels like rolling the dice for all of the other selections.
Click to expand...
Ya there's some coin flips you need to get right tonight. Burks or woods. Mckenzie or crowder. Do you pay up for aj or down to devonte..... I think I'm putting Jefferson in 90% of mine but some with him/theilen, some him/cook. I went mostly cousins with a touch of tanny. But I like Sanders... do we go down to gainwell as leverage? I think you definitely could.
 
ScopeY said:
Ya there's some coin flips you need to get right tonight. Burks or woods. Mckenzie or crowder. Do you pay up for aj or down to devonte..... I think I'm putting Jefferson in 90% of mine but some with him/theilen, some him/cook. I went mostly cousins with a touch of tanny. But I like Sanders... do we go down to gainwell as leverage? I think you definitely could.
Click to expand...
It's becoming very difficult for me to get off Allen tonight. At the end I think they have similar numbers, opportunity advantage maybe to Cousins who has more of a chance of playing from behind than Allen. But isn't the theme always Allen is great in primetime games and Cousins sucks?
 
peelpub94 said:
It's becoming very difficult for me to get off Allen tonight. At the end I think they have similar numbers, opportunity advantage maybe to Cousins who has more of a chance of playing from behind than Allen. But isn't the theme always Allen is great in primetime games and Cousins sucks?
Click to expand...

Lmao you're right... if you go that route, you need to hit something unusual, unless your single entering or cash gaming
 
peelpub94 said:
That's exactly what it's coming down to.
Click to expand...

I do think gainwell over Scott for sure.

Also before 7pm

MIN/PHI

Vikes have a great RB match-up, meh at P match up
Eagles have a great RB match-up, meh P matchup
Sanders? Has a great ALY matchup.
Cook has a great ALY matchup, Cousins has a great ASR matchup.
Pace of play is 5th (/16)
 
ScopeY said:
I'm in the middle of working unfortunately.

Let me see what I can phone do, so excuse the format.

TEN/BUF

Titans have a bad match-up vs P/RB
Bills have a great rb match-up, had p match up.
Allen has a bad ASR match-up
Tanny has a meh ASR match-up, Henry has a meh ALY match-up.
Pace is 14th(/16).

- from a dfs perspective, it's a 2 game slate. If we are entering 1 lineup, you need to be a bit contrarion starting with Henry makes a LOT of sense. He's on a team that's 10 point underdogs, with the lowest TT and slower pace of the 2. And he's expensive, while most people will want to jam the big guns from the other game (or Diggs/Allen here). From a game theory, it makes sense to gain leverage like that. Im going burks over woods but no real feel there. I think Knox props I like the most, no Davis, and no Sweeney (his direct backup). He has a realistic chance to 95%~ of snaps on the team with the highest team total. Crowder/Mckenzie both fit as cheapies. And moss could be a correlation if you're banking on a Titans game where they lead/Henry rocks.
Click to expand...
BTW - your perspective is awesome. Thanks again and BOL to whatever you decide on tonight.
 
peelpub94 said:
View attachment 68603
This is what I ended up with lol... Josh Gordon? Let's roll em!
Click to expand...

2 things! 1) This looks like a nice lineup, seriously. 2) I started my dfs career at fanduel, and they treated me right (especially nhl) but I do think DraftKings has (or atleast had) way better prize structures and way more tournament options.... when I say things I do mean from a full ppr perspective (for future reference).... how are the tournaments there now?
 
Oh, and I really do appreciate your thoughts and these threads ScopeY. Prop market is very beatable. My issue has always been I get TOO confident in my own picks - I'll have a great week one week, and the next week I'll think I'm a genius and get destroyed. Always great to hear multiple sides
 
ScopeY said:
2 things! 1) This looks like a nice lineup, seriously. 2) I started my dfs career at fanduel, and they treated me right (especially nhl) but I do think DraftKings has (or atleast had) way better prize structures and way more tournament options.... when I say things I do mean from a full ppr perspective (for future reference).... how are the tournaments there now?
Click to expand...
I am nowhere near as invested as you are so hard to comment. It’s just for fun for the most part. I have always heard DK is better for DFS. Love FDs sportsbook though.
 
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