DFS/Props Week 2 2024 Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Will get to the game by games later in the week, just getting thread started.

Just a common note --- the metrics will look better post week 4, so take some of the game by games with a grain of salt.

Some DFS/Prop/Fantasy things of note.

Pitt played in a pretty neutral game script for that entire game, Justin Fields was 8th in airyards per attempt, taking out his rushing, they had a 47% pass to run ratio, but he had 14 carries, 35% of the run plays were from him. He had 0 total TDs. I hope denver keeps it semi close this week, because in a neutral to positive pass script, I really think Fields can be the slate winner at 5.4K --- especially with most people running towards Najee/Warren with how well Walker looked in that 2nd half. --- Pickens was the beneficiary of a 32% target share, and a 14 aDOT, these 2 metrics weighted average was actually 2nd best among all WRs week 1.

In 2023, there were only about 5 backs who averaged over 75% snap count per game. Kyren/CMC/Barkley/White/Jacobs. Week 1 in 2024 had 9, Taylor/Kyren/Hall/Mason(CMC), then we had Pacheco (imo to be expected as year 2/end of season last season/playoff snap count), and the last 4 with Bijan (new coach/scheme), Barkley (new team), Stevenson (new coach/scheme), and Ford (no true backup, and was in a pretty negative run script throughout).

Possibly Positive/Negative notes
- Dortch's 26% target share, no other WR having even 10%, but he played the lowest amount of snaps of the 3, I'm not worried about Harrison/Wilson yet.
- I think Likely is good, but I do think him and Andrews will fight over FPs week to week, has the snap counts were 66% likely/74% andrews.
- I will still believe in Diontae Johnson for another week... the game got out of hand last week, and there 5 WRs finished between 32% and 69% snap count. Despite this, he still had a 21% target share.
- Diggs performance/final statlline. All 3 of those WRs finished between 19 and 26% target share, but Diggs had an aDOT of 1.5... YUCK. His 2 TDs/chasers will have me full fade.
- Mooney is the WR2, playing 95% of snaps.
- 2 man WR show in BAL with Flowers/Bateman both over 84% of snaps, no other WR got to 40%.
- I believe Samuel was coming back from injury, but he was close to MVS at the WR4/5 snap count.... yikes --- and I've already dropped him in some fantasy leagues (overreaction? maybe).
- Moore/Allen combined a 65%+ target share... Odunze's (now hurT) 14% target share/77% snap count could now increase those slightly too.
- While Irwin was the aDOT guy week1, Iosivas played 100% of snaps, and finished with a 21% target share, if Higgins is still out, he may be cheap in a + script matchup vs the Chiefs.
- Cooper/Jeudy had huge aDOTs, and played 95/82% of snaps, if that pace continues, they will have GPP winning upside at some point. --- they played from behind, but Watson was 1 of 4 QBs with air yards over 300, and he was at 395, good for 1st.
- Lamb had 10 targets in a blowout win, 33% target share, he is still the real deal.
- Sutton had 12 targets (29%), with a really good aDOT of 13.6, fantasy pros lists his catchable targets as 4 (of the 12), well he finished with a 4-38 statline... I think he is a bounceback candidate if Nix can get it on him, as I don't see them playing with a lead often....
- Not happy with a 4.5 aDOT on ASB, tiny sample size but we'll see if the trend continues. I also see elite WR1 numbers out of Jameson if it continues (32% target share/14a DOT, #4 weighted WR of week 1.)
- 19 total pass attempts is probably to small of a sample size, but its nice to see AR threw 18 of them to his WRs. I've written about Pierce last year and how he has homerun hitting potential at min price typically, and a 40 week 1 aDOT stamps that, the 16% target share is nice. Mitchell will only continue to progress but he had a really great aDOT of his own at 16.4/26% target share, but people continue to sleep on Pittman, 42% target share with an ok aDOT of 9.25 will lead to high FPs. I guess I have to say it is concerning that in a neutral to positive passing script they rated 22nd on the week in pass play%.
- Gab just doing what he did in buffalo, typically playing the most snaps (only wr over 77% at 94%), and still getting deep aDOTs.
- Rice's aDOT sucked (5.33), and Worthy got the TDs, but a 33% target share from Mahomes is worth a lot, plus this note "Mahomes averaged 10.4 yards per attempt, which would have been his highest in any 2023-24 contest, including the postseason."
- Still feel clueless in LAC WR, they all got some pros and cons in terms of snaps/adot/target share.
- Raiders were 8th in pass play% in a mostly neutral game script, Bowers in PPR formats looks nice, despite just a 68% snap count.
- We know what Miami is on offense, I will have a lot of Waddle/Hill this year. As for Mostert/Achane, ugh, it was a 44/52% split, and even Wilson had 15%.
- No Addison/Obvi no Hock, with half a game from Addison, JJ still had a 29% target share, that number should go up if he misses week 2. Not sure what to make out of that backfield yet, as they blew the G-Men out, but Jones had 16 opportunities (2 targets) on 55% of snaps.
- Idk what to do in NE, except play Stevenson and his 28 opps (3 targets).
- NOS WRs had the blowout issue, so nothing really to take from there. Kamara in the same boat only played 55% of snaps, but he had 20 opps (5 targets), I said it last week, I'll say it again, why are people down on him?
- Nice to see a rookie immediately play 100% of snaps (nabers), the giants should be playing from behind most weeks... his aDOT of 7 is meh, but good signs in general.
- Lazard finished with a 100% snap count as well, a 31% target share, and a 10.9 aDOT, Rodgers familiarity angle too, if he's cheap/right matchup, i'll listen. In the blowout, Hall still had 80%+ snap count (would be higher), and 22 opps (6 targets), he is a yes please candidate.
- Goedert is a fine PPR option, but his aDOT is and always has been trash. We love PHI because they are concentrated and efficient. Brown/Smith combined for over 62% target share. And not sure more needs to be said about Barkley but 26 opps (2 targets), and 3 TDs, 80% snaps... if Hurts sees that regression count drop of rushing tds, like it seems/should in general, Barkley could be inline for a great year.
- JSN, despite playing 79% of snaps compared to Locketts 54% he had an 8% target share and a measly 3.2 aDOT, compared to locketts 28%/12.4 aDOT... which would you rather?
- Tampa can't run the ball... and despite playing in a very much positive run script (one of maybe 3? on the week), they finished middle of the pack in run play %. Evans/Godwin didn't play their full allotment and still finished with 47% of targets, the sleeper is R. Whites 20%, and 70% snap count... both of those numbers could go up in a neutral to positive pass script.
- I'm taking a wait and see approach for TEN WRs. .... but I know last year hopkins had a huge aDOT.... and Ridley last week had a 26% target share, with a massive 22.9 aDOT... he is all systems go for me if Hopkins is limited again.
- McLaurin is the only WR I want in WAS, and maybe naked Lamar/Allen back in the day, becomes Naked McDaniels too (or AR) but I will note Terry had a 20 aDOT, and this note "McLaurin was also wide open down the sideline for what would have been a 75-yard touchdown pass but Jayden Daniels overthrew him.".
 
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BUF@MIA

Bills have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dolphins have a good matchup, meh RB matchup.
Allen has a bad pressure rate situation.
Tua has a great pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 12th (bad).

- I'll get to more if I have time later, but Hill/Waddle will be fired up, all will gravitate to wright, I think wilson for very deep tourney fliers, or achane for reasoning of people being scared off.
 
So we just bet Allen to score tuddy every week? Especially while it cheap like this (-110). I didn’t think the offense get worse ar all, just expect it to lot different, less explosive but I think they gonna be ultra efficient in red zone and that all legs against a worn down s or those te’s. Gotta think he has at last 10 games with a rush td, some weeks maybe he throws one to te and one to back Regardless he can smell that goalline and not many teams stopping him from finding imo!!

Afterbseeing bigsby rush feel like cook ov 82.5 rush/rec the ticket here asking an auto bet Allen scores.. one the te’s sacked but such? Knox ysrdave low, man he could get nothing but sure seems like he get a catch or 2, 1 might get him 13.5!!!! Kinksid looking more at a td prop +130.. little neevouss see the te’s could take allen rush td but total of 48 makes me think there room for both!!

That said I also played u48, we could see long medical drives, I don’t think l will allow many over the tops and Mia didn’t look so hot when they got ball into scoring range last week!!
 
Who on earth is going to cover Amon-Ra this weekend? Does Tampa Bay have any competent corners who are healthy? After doing so little last week gotta think this is a big bounce-back for him.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Who on earth is going to cover Amon-Ra this weekend? Does Tampa Bay have any competent corners who are healthy? After doing so little last week gotta think this is a big bounce-back for him.
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Fuck I barely kmdw there was a game today. I’ll let ya know Saturday night! Lol. Been trying to at least listen to some ncaa pods so I at least know who the fuck playing this week! If I can stay up might actually start working on ncaa but I’m days from knowing any nfl matchups! Lol
 
1 PMs

LVR@BAL

Raiders have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Minshew has a good pressure rate situation.
Lamar has a meh pressure rate situation.
Raiders TTR is 26th (bad/last)
Ravens TTR is 5th (good)
Pace of play is T-7th (meh), O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).

- Mattinson had 11 opps (6 targets) last week, and he is priced at 5.3K.... does anyone believe raiders will be playing with a lead? or trailing again? I think he is viable, and should have a floor of 60% of snaps again. Not touch Zamir. Bowers was the 3rd rated TE based of target share/air yards last week, and he is priced at 4.4K in a good script, and matchup. I think in tourneys there is an argument to avoid the ownership, but honestly I think you might have to play him and pivot else where, as what are the better alternatives in that range? Maybe the winner of andrews/likely?? idk. I don't think many people will be playing bowers AND adams... so maybe the discussion shouldn't be which TE to pivot from, but if GPP'ing, take an adams lineup over a bowers one.

It's hard to like Henry this expensive when he doesn't have much PPR upside, and could be scripted out if playing from behind (which isn't likely sunday, but just saying). 90 yards~ 2 catches, and a TD, and he isn't even 3x'ing.... pass. I think I'm avoiding Likely/Andrews, I don't want to chase, and I don't know what we can expect from it week to week, GPP argument for Andrews, but I'll pass for now. Flowers is great for PPR sites, and he doesn't break the bank... but Batemen is MUCH cheaper, played the same amount of snaps, and had a huge aDOT of 24 last week, could be a HR hitter.

SFO@MIN

49ers have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Vikings have a good P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation.
Darnold has a meh pressure rate situation.
49ers TTR is 4th (good).
Vikings TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last), O/U Rank is T-4th (good).

- Mason is so cheap and had 29 opps last week.... I won't fault anyone, obviously a cash game play. On PPR sites, the 1 target is concerning, and he should have a tougher matchup this week. Deebo without CMC should see the most increase in opps imo, he had a 35% target share, with 8 carries, and we know he is utilized in the RZ.

Darnold wasn't asked to do much last week, and finished with a decent stat line.... maybe he is a bit underrated at this point... his one pick was while he was hit on his throwing motion --- I don't think 30+ attempts is out of question, and if he gets the TDs not and the RB, he will absolutely smash his 5.2K price point imo --- you can definitely one-off punt play a TE, or WR2, and be happy with it, but I will have a darnold to JJ stack at the least.

LAC@CAR

Chargers have a great P and RB matchup.
Panthers have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Herbert has a good pressure rate situation.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation.
Chargers TTR is T-11th.
Panthers TTR is T-24th (meh).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 11th (bad).

- I think Dobbins will be extremely high in ownership, and I'd like to make sure it truly is a 60-40~ split. He looked explosive, which is great, but Gus Bus, or even Herbert threw the air (preferred) is where I'd leverage myself against the field. The problem is who the hell do we play as the pass catcher? McConkey had the worst aDOT (5), but best target share (29%) -- and Palmer/QJ were the aDOTs. I will note, Hurst had a 10 aDOT, and 12.5% target share, doesn't take much to pay off 3K.

Hubbard just played 54% of snaps, and had 0 targets in a passing script game.. pass. I will have some mixture of Leggete/Johnson, both had double digit aDOTs and over 20% of the target share a piece.

TBB@DET

Bucs have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation.
Bucs TTR is T-11th.
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 12th (bad), O/U Rank is 1st (great).

- People will most likely be game stacking this game the most (rightfully so), but there are a lot of options to choice from. R. White had 70% snap count, 21 opps (6 targets) in a blowout win.... his price didn't move, and nobody will be playing him. For GPPs, don't cross him off your list in an environment with the highest O/U. Evans the savage... aDOt over 10, 20% target share but finally he is priced with a gap from godwin, who had a very low aDOT of 4 last week, but had the higher target share of 25%.... I think I'd rather go to him for price savings if I must, but I think either are viable.

Are we overreacting, or are we seeing what Jame-O can be?? He was the 2nd best rated WR in terms of target share/air yards for week 1, he is WR2 and played 85% of snaps last week.... oh and he is just 5.3K... he will be by far the most used WR at that price so its a discussion of ownership/leverage. When you consider the WRs around his price, I dont like justifying the reason to play sun god despite my gut saying to do it. I also don't want to overreact to his poor stat line week 1 like the rest of the field may do... ugh.

NYJ@TEN

Jets have a bad P/RB matchup.
Titans have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Levis has a bad pressure rate situation.
Jets TTR is T-8th.
Titans TTR is T-21st (meh).
Pace of play is 10th (meh), O/U Rank is 9th (meh).

- Monday night effect (tourneys/prices for following week are released before monday game), but lazard at 3.3K feels like a lock it in and figure out the rest. The guy had a 31% target share, with a good 11 aDOT, that's like 7K~ range possibilities. I obviously think hall/wilson are fine plays, but I'm not going a ton of jets.

If Hopkins is still limited (no sign he won't be) I think Ridley has GPP upside. He finished with a massive 23 aDOT, and 26% target share. Not sure if I want to chase pollard with what mason just did to this team, but I can see the argument.

NYG@WAS

Giants have a great P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Commanders have a great P matchup, and a good RB matchup.
Jones has a bad pressure rate situation.
Giants TTR is T-16th.
Commanders TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 6th.

- I do think singletary is playable on PPR sites, but it doesn't feel sexy. In a closely contested game he could get to the 80%+ mark in snaps, not sure how much I'll have. Nobody had a good aDOT on this team (all WRs below 8.5 aside from Hyatts 1 target), maybe that's indicative of this OL, not sure. but somebody is going to produce. Nabers played 100% of snaps, and have no problem taking a shit there, but if you needed even more salary savings, Slayton/Wandale are fine options (prefer slayton).

Ekeler/Br. Robinson both had 4 targets, and played over 50% of snaps. I don't want to guess who is going to be the guy, and there are other options so i'll pass for now. I think naked Daniels is viable, the guy had 16 rush attempts, but otherwise I will single stack him with McLaurin

IND@GBP

Colts have a great P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Packers have a great P/RB matchup.
Willis? has a great pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is 13th.
Packers TTR is T-21st (meh).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).

- Obviously will always love pittman, but I want to get to Mitchell... he had a very respectable 26% target share, and a great16.4 aDOT, and he is the 4th priced WR on the colts... Idk if he is good this week with Willis opposite of Richardson, but another poor performance he can be a good buy low candidate. Taylor played 96% of snaps, but he only had 16 opps and 0 targets. I think he'll have good games, but I can't pay #1 RB price for someone that will need 2 TDs~ to pay off

With no Love (I THINK!?!) I don't really want to invest in the pass catching options. I guess nobody is going here, but maybe Jacobs can still get there from a volume perspective. If you think Willis is serviceable I guess his WRs will be sub 1% owned. but I can't do it.


NOS@DAL

Saints have a good RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dak has a great pressure rate situation.
Saints TTR is 18th.
Cowboys TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 15th (bad). O/U Rank is T-4th (good).

- Kamara only played 52% of snaps in a blowout and still finished with 20 opps (5 targets)... I will have shares of him every week until he proves me wrong or his price gets egregious. Shaheed is still cheap with HR potnetial, I get it as a shot you want to take, I do think Olave will get overlooked though.

3 targets amongst this RB core... maybe it was due to script, but we also don't fully know the snap share yet either, I'll pass for now. But Cowboys do have the 3rd best TTR, and if the TDs don't go through Dak, they are a great cheap pivot spot from the other RB value areas. I probably won't do it. Schoomaker at 2.9K is a good TE punt option if looking for salary relief. Give me all the lamb, and a couple pivots to cooks.

SEA@NEP

Seahawks have a great RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Patriots have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation.
Seahawks TTR is T-14th.
Pats TTR is 23rd (meh).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 12th (bad).

- Charb has a path to 20+ touches at 5K range with Walker out --- now that I continue to do more research there are a ton of cheap value RBs... --- Lockett didn't play to much but led in targets, him and DK had good aDOTs too... would limit to one of them.

Stevenson is like Kamara to me, play him until he proves me wrong or price is egregious. One of these Pat WRs can pay off as they are all cheap... if dart throwing I'd go thornton for now.

CLV@JAC

Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jags have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Browns TTR is 20th (meh).
Jags TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 6th (meh). O/U Rank is T-7th (meh).

- Ford had 19 opps (7 targets), if you think they play from behind, he's a good option. Cooper/Jeudy both had great aDOTs with a 20%~ target share...No Njoku and his 12%~ targets get dispersed too --- I feel like this game can be a shootout and nobody is looking here imo.

I know he was semi benched, but he still played 70% of snaps, and only had 15 touches (3 opps), I am not paying a premium with that kind of concern. I want to play a pass catcher, but who? Targets were pretty dispersed among the 3 WRs/1 TE, but they're all cheap, and at least 1 should pay off. I lean to Kirk/Gab at WR, as they had the best aDOTs. Engram is always on the radar for PPR sites.

4 PMs

LAR@ARI

Rams have a great P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Cards have a great RB matchup, and meh P matchup.
Stafford has a great pressure rate situation.
Rams TTR is 7th (good).
Cards TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U rank is 3rd (good).

- 91% of snaps, 21 opps (3 targets) for Kyren... there was so much worry, but the guy still looks to be a workhorse, and I have no issues paying up for him when others go cheap value RB this week. I'll never talk anyone off Kupp, the guy was #1 rated WR last week for target share/air yards, it wasn't thatttt long ago when he was over 9K (2 years?). Robinson is who I also like, he played 92% of snaps last week and had the best aDOT of the bunch, he's still cheap too. I'll let others chase parkinson.

CIN@KCC

Bengals have a great RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Chiefs have a good RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation.
Bengals TTR is T-14th.
Chiefs TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 14th (bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- Moss could be in a good matchup, he played about 2/3rds of snaps, and finished with 4 targets. He feels like a value RB that nobody is looking at. Iosivas played 100% of snaps, but him and chase both had weak aDOTs, I think they can get their for PPR sites, especially the cheap Iosivas, but I might let others chase. If GPP dart throwing, I'll pivot to Irwin and his 11.5 aDOT.

Pacheco had an 80% snap share, and plays for the 2nd highest TTR of the week, won't talk anyone off of him. Rice's aDOT was not great at 5, but a 33% target share from Mahomes is valuable, worthy is wayyy to expensive for my taste, when Watson/Juju could beat his production at almost half his price. TEs were flops last week, so maybe people punt and avoid Kelce, we know he can slate break, not sure I go there though.

PIT@DEN

Steelers have a good RB matchup, and a meh P matchup.
Broncos have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a bad pressure rate situation.
Steelers TTR is 19th (meh).
Broncos TTR is T-24th (meh).
Pace of play is T-7th (meh). O/U Rank is 13th (bad).

- Can't play Warren... Najee, despite having 52% of snaps, did finished with 22 opps (2 targets), and he's cheap in a good matchup... I get it, but I'll be pist if Fields/Warren vultures, and I think I'll try to leverage off of him, but I get it. Pickens was a savage, finishing was a 14 aDOT, and a 32% target share... we've seen Fields lock onto Moore... is he showing us that it'll be pickens now? I'd rather be in front of it then behind it, and will be playing him at 5K area (probably 6K too). Friermuth quietly had a 18% target share, but his aDOT of 3 is worrisome, however a 5-50-1 statline 4x's.

I'm not going javonte/jaleel until something gets established. Last week Vele garnered 20% target share and is now out. Sutton already had an incredible 29% target share, and a 13.5 aDOT... I like it.
 
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Sun Night/Showdown Slate

CHI@HOU

Bears have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Williams has a bad pressure rate situation.
Stroud has a great pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 9th (meh).

- Notes
 
Mon Night/Showdown Slate

ATL@PHI

Falcons have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Eagles have a meh P/RB matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 1st (good).

- Notes
 
As a reminder again, take some of these numbers/metrics with a grain of salt for now as we have tiny sample sizes, and injury concerns to be aware of (like GBP game 2nd in pace this week).

If I don't have notes updated prior to 4pm~ saturday, I'll miss it, as I am out of state this weekend.

Gl all, lets get it.
 
My biggest question/comcern w Darnold is playing that loser turnover machine Danny dimes week 1 he never had any real pressure to make a throw. He was efficient and sticking balls right where they needed to be but will he stay that way and not make mistakes when the opposing offense will score points for themselves not for Vikings? Lol. I’m just not sure, I’ve always thought and been told by smarter ppl than me Darnold has the ability but he can be careless or trust his arm to much. If niners are scoring points does he continue making the right plays or does he try forcing a few? I’m not sure
 
Wouldn’t want any part of Henry, I was trying to figure out ravens wr’s to play but honestly I think we getting a very cheap number for Lamar passing, ravens at home as sizable fav off a loss usually screams beat down and think Lamar puts on a air show as there no way raiders can cover all those weapons 213.5 pass yards? Ummm yea I’ll take that and prob play a 250+ alt number..
 
I was just talking bout this in discussion thread, they raised Levis number up to the 11.5 lowest alt number I played last week, 25+ is only like +250 no +800s this week! Lol. The problem is they only called like 3 designed runs for him, titans OC better wake up real quick, if Levis doesn’t have at least 10 rush attempts and 50ish yards he will throw another 2-3 picks! There no way he sitting back in pocket and having success here. Even if some the runs not successful if they force jets to defend him from getting the edge it might help open a few holes for pollard. I have no clue if titans OC is smart enough to figure this out? I’m still baffled he ran so little last week (even tho it was more than enough to cash!), there so many issues going on here it not just the fact he can’t read a defense, process information, see the field, but his pocket awareness is terrible also! Jets are gonna eat this kid alive but I dunno the best way to take advantage of that?? Not sure i trust jets offense enough to lay -3.5! Lol. Kinda thinking without a special teams score and a turnover leading to a score (Rodgers don’t really throw picks). I have no clue how titans get to 17.5 points?
 
Do niners have much history vs running qb’s @ScopeY or anyone else. Murray been hurt so much he has hardly faced them last 3 years but I assume they have faced some other scramblers? His rush total feels low to me.
 
2daBank said:
That was like right after he came back from
Injury tho wasn’t ur? He seemed like a tenative runner most those games, certainly didn’t seem that way week 1 tho
Click to expand...
For sure. I'll look at past games if I have time after UFC party. I'm curious as well.
 
My 5 min of nfl capping came up w these

Lamar ov 213.5 pass yards
Willis ov 30.5 rush and 50+ +330
Daniels 50+ rush
Kyler Murray ov 32.5 rush
Titans tt u17.5

Cmon Lamar 214? Ravens usually show up and show out when they get a whipping boy at home. Couldn’t decide on which wr so figured just take the qb!

I can’t picture a world where Malik isn’t running! Can you? The kid a long way from a drop back passer but like Jayden Daniels he knows he can make shit happen w his legs, only reason I passed on AR15 cause this number better and think he more likely to run, AR needs to run few more times a game for my taste!

Jayden showed ya’ll what he gonna do when his 1st read not there! That not changing in a week and I just think he to quick to stop for a garbage giants team!

Kyler looked like his old self last week, juking and jiving all over the bills. Rams have depth issues up front and were freaking gassed in ot Sunday night, now they gotta chase this kid around? He not getting 40? I don’t buy it.

We coulda went with Levis rush again cause they still short w his number at 11.5 but I was pretty annoyed how little the oc called designed runs for him, he not gonna make a lot of yards on scrabble plays cause he has no fucking pocket awareness! He prob get over but I’m more confident there no way this dude scoring points on jets!

That’s all folks, Hope everyone has a good week!! I’ll be posting my mlb shortly :)
 
Hi Guys, great thread I love reading this kinda stuff, right up there with B.A.R.s Reno thread.
Anyways I'm looking for input on my QB situation this weekend, Stroud is my #1 and has a nice matchup vs Bears, with Daniels as my backup, both have sweet matchups today thinking of slipping Daniels in today to take advantage of his running abilities and the porous NYG run D, whadda u think? Thanks
 
sjmartin57ca said:
Hi Guys, great thread I love reading this kinda stuff, right up there with B.A.R.s Reno thread.
Anyways I'm looking for input on my QB situation this weekend, Stroud is my #1 and has a nice matchup vs Bears, with Daniels as my backup, both have sweet matchups today thinking of slipping Daniels in today to take advantage of his running abilities and the porous NYG run D, whadda u think? Thanks
Click to expand...

I'd go Daniel's

300 and 3 from stroud could still be worse than 250 and 2 from daniels and his rushing upside...especially if standard 4 pt passing tds
 
sjmartin57ca said:
Hi Guys, great thread I love reading this kinda stuff, right up there with B.A.R.s Reno thread.
Anyways I'm looking for input on my QB situation this weekend, Stroud is my #1 and has a nice matchup vs Bears, with Daniels as my backup, both have sweet matchups today thinking of slipping Daniels in today to take advantage of his running abilities and the porous NYG run D, whadda u think? Thanks
Click to expand...

I havnt really played fantasy in years but if I had a qb like stroud i would pretty much stick w him. Even if Daniels goes off will it really be a lot more than you get from stroud (I guess one question in your league are passing td 4 or 6?) if passing tds count for less only way id even consider it but think id still stick w Stroud cause his floor is super high and he has a good ceiling, Daniels could give you 30 or 10! So for me it would be stroud and that be my answer almost no matter the matchup. At least until Daniels gets more comfy.
 
ScopeY said:
I'd go Daniel's

300 and 3 from stroud could still be worse than 250 and 2 from daniels and his rushing upside...especially if standard 4 pt passing tds
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lol. Of course i say the opposite! I agree if passing tds only 4 than it def more a discussion. I just feel like you can chalk stroud up for 20-25 every week where as who the hell knows w Daniel’s although I do think he gonna rush for at least 60 most weeks. Maybe the question should be is he a fav or dog in his matchup? If I was confident my team was better I’d roll stroud, if I felt I needed to make up for other areas I might roll dice w Jayden
 
ScopeY said:
0 tds doesn't help.
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Fucker came up like 5 yards short his rush total also. It was pretty clear giants game planned to take his legs away, he did throw it better but it was the giants after all! He seems to have issues hitting his wrs tho, most his yardage today came from te and rb’s.
 
2daBank said:
My 5 min of nfl capping came up w these

Lamar ov 213.5 pass yards
Willis ov 30.5 rush and 50+ +330
Daniels 50+ rush
Kyler Murray ov 32.5 rush
Titans tt u17.5

Cmon Lamar 214? Ravens usually show up and show out when they get a whipping boy at home. Couldn’t decide on which wr so figured just take the qb!

I can’t picture a world where Malik isn’t running! Can you? The kid a long way from a drop back passer but like Jayden Daniels he knows he can make shit happen w his legs, only reason I passed on AR15 cause this number better and think he more likely to run, AR needs to run few more times a game for my taste!

Jayden showed ya’ll what he gonna do when his 1st read not there! That not changing in a week and I just think he to quick to stop for a garbage giants team!

Kyler looked like his old self last week, juking and jiving all over the bills. Rams have depth issues up front and were freaking gassed in ot Sunday night, now they gotta chase this kid around? He not getting 40? I don’t buy it.

We coulda went with Levis rush again cause they still short w his number at 11.5 but I was pretty annoyed how little the oc called designed runs for him, he not gonna make a lot of yards on scrabble plays cause he has no fucking pocket awareness! He prob get over but I’m more confident there no way this dude scoring points on jets!

That’s all folks, Hope everyone has a good week!! I’ll be posting my mlb shortly :)
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God damn Daniels came up 5 yards short of breaking out the broom! Mam you could tell giants game planned to take his rushing away, I was little scared that 50 number but thought he just have to break one, he had 10 attempts tho so don’t think it was a awful play, giants just did a good job keeping him bottled up, of course in the process they left te’s and running backs wide open for him to throw it to! Lol.. this 5 min capping shit gong pretty good! 😂
 
Oh and Willis came up just a handful of yards short hitting the alt number but guess we can’t hit huge plus money alt number every week! Lol.

Levis smashed his rush prop yet again. Boosting it up to 11.5 was still really short as I suspected. If titans had any damn sense they would call more designed runs for him cause leaving him in pocket making decisions gonna lead to some god awful plays every week! But if they start getting him out on the edge a bit it could not only get them more yards from his feet but also give pollard a bit more room and think we would see him bust a long one practically every week but they don’t seem real motivated to use Leviis best attributes! They wanna make him something he not.
 
ScopeY said:
Sun Night/Showdown Slate

CHI@HOU

Bears have a good P/RB matchup.
Texans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Williams has a bad pressure rate situation.
Stroud has a great pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 9th (meh).

- Notes
Click to expand...

How you think this game plays out? I feel so clueless here. Williams passing yards is pretty low, I think he better than last week but will Texans have him under a bunch of pressure. They have stroud number pretty high, for good reason but not sure much value. Maybe one his wrs. Last week diggs was like his red zone guy, he +160 to score, does that continue or was that just welcoming him to the team plus he wasn’t really the man between the 20s.

If Williams struggles again you know Texans be perfectly happy pounding mixon, his rush prop of 70.5 seems solid, pollard ran for over 5 yards a pop vs bears last week. Dunno if I rather have mixon rush or rush+rec? Or his ob 15.5 rec? Feel like some kind of mixon prop is def in order just not sure best way to go about it. Hate playing the rush+rec cause they tack an extra 5 yards compared to each separate number but sometimes it worth it.

Diggs is the lowest lined of the big 3 WRs, kinda wondering in prime time if diggs might do more work? I dunno. I’m all over the place here. Part of me wants to play Williams passing yards but part of me scared to death Ryans d causes him problems. I do think Houston controls the game which should mean mixon in play. Fuck man what you thinking?
 
2daBank said:
How you think this game plays out? I feel so clueless here. Williams passing yards is pretty low, I think he better than last week but will Texans have him under a bunch of pressure. They have stroud number pretty high, for good reason but not sure much value. Maybe one his wrs. Last week diggs was like his red zone guy, he +160 to score, does that continue or was that just welcoming him to the team plus he wasn’t really the man between the 20s.

If Williams struggles again you know Texans be perfectly happy pounding mixon, his rush prop of 70.5 seems solid, pollard ran for over 5 yards a pop vs bears last week. Dunno if I rather have mixon rush or rush+rec? Or his ob 15.5 rec? Feel like some kind of mixon prop is def in order just not sure best way to go about it. Hate playing the rush+rec cause they tack an extra 5 yards compared to each separate number but sometimes it worth it.

Diggs is the lowest lined of the big 3 WRs, kinda wondering in prime time if diggs might do more work? I dunno. I’m all over the place here. Part of me wants to play Williams passing yards but part of me scared to death Ryans d causes him problems. I do think Houston controls the game which should mean mixon in play. Fuck man what you thinking?
Click to expand...
Feels like under tendencies for me w/rookie on the road playing a decent defense and I'm still of the opinion that Stroud will find plenty of Soph slump spots this season. I reserve the right to change that opinion after a few weeks but it's been a decent factor for most human QBs which I believe Stroud to be. And you know how high I was on him last year, just playing the odds.
 
I rocked with

Mixon ov 70.5 rush
Diggs ov 49.5 rec
Diggs td +160

Then they had that bonus “risk free” bet on td scorer but $20 limit so only way was worth it to take 1st td scorer and I took mixon at +500 I think.
 
I was kicking myself before they even kicked off for not playing mixon rec yards. But what can ya do, I usually fuck up the night game if I have good day, lol.

Not gonna make same mistake tonight

Barkley ov 17.5 rec yards

He should get this practically every game and now playing a game w brown out that means there gonna be 6-7 more passes to go around, I’d think Barkley at least gets 3 catches and if this dude can’t make 18 yards in 3 catches then I dunno wtf to say, hell he could get it in one! The Steelers 2 backs had 3 catches for 20something vs falcons and we know Steelers offense is dog shit!
 
2daBank said:
I was kicking myself before they even kicked off for not playing mixon rec yards. But what can ya do, I usually fuck up the night game if I have good day, lol.

Not gonna make same mistake tonight

Barkley ov 17.5 rec yards

He should get this practically every game and now playing a game w brown out that means there gonna be 6-7 more passes to go around, I’d think Barkley at least gets 3 catches and if this dude can’t make 18 yards in 3 catches then I dunno wtf to say, hell he could get it in one! The Steelers 2 backs had 3 catches for 20something vs falcons and we know Steelers offense is dog shit!
Click to expand...

Adding

Bijan ov 67.5 rush yards.

Think it makes lot of sense to shove the ball down eagles throats here,.he had 18 carries for 68 vs Steelers who a way tougher d than Philly, Jacobs averaged over 5ypc vs Philly. He gets 15+ carries i think he closer to 100 than this number. In a perfect world his a Bijan vs Barkley showcase, that be worth staying up to watch!
 
2daBank said:
Adding

Bijan ov 67.5 rush yards.

Think it makes lot of sense to shove the ball down eagles throats here,.he had 18 carries for 68 vs Steelers who a way tougher d than Philly, Jacobs averaged over 5ypc vs Philly. He gets 15+ carries i think he closer to 100 than this number. In a perfect world his a Bijan vs Barkley showcase, that be worth staying up to watch!
Click to expand...
Great bet, Philly run defense is brutal.
 
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