Christmas Day/3 Game Slate
DAL@WAS
Cowboys have a great P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
Dak has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Javonte~ has a good rush potential.
Johnson? has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Rodriquez?~ has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 1st (great).
Commanders TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 3rd overall (good). O/U rank is 1st (great) on the slate.
- Cowboys with the top TT of the slate, but I really am only interesting diving in if mariota plays, OR we just do a big time game stack, because we will need WAS to keep up, and if I don't go all-in with my lineup, I'd rather avoid it entirely just incase this turns into a blowout vs josh johnson. Another point of concern is what do we do with Javonte --- he'd be my recommended one-off but he only got a season low 57% of snaps last week, and 12 total opps (3 targets), despite practicing fully on friday, maybe if mass entering, go malik davis, maybe a dart on blue, I'm not sure yet. Ferguson used to be atleast a RZ guy, but even over the L4 weeks, he has just 2 RZ targets, in a game where the script projects to be unfavorable to pass catchers, and the loss of volume already, I can't trust him. If you look at the L5/6 games since the bye (taking out the game lamb came out of it), Pickens actually grades out slightly better (29.5% vs 27%, and 11 vs 10.6 aDOTs) -- Lamb does lead slightly in RZ targets, but that has been muted/equalized last few weeks, I still think you can pick your poison either way, or however you have conviction. Flournoy is cheap enough to consider, and he does have a handful of RZ targets, but really he just hasn't been used to much when the big 2 are in --- I am leaning on the side of let others chase the spiked fantasy games he has had due to lamb out/TD catches, pass on all else.
Already alluded to this, but if Mariota is in, he is way to cheap, and I will stack this game harder --- but assuming Johnson is in, we can really look at one-off at best, and that would go to McLuarin/Deebo/Burks, last week all 3 played over 80% of snaps --- burks is almost min priced, and why you can consider, super small sample size, but 33% of his targets went to burks (only 9 pass attempts), Rodriquez only had about a 50%+ snap count, but he did have 16 opps (1 target), if the game is kept somewhat close, he could be a reason why, so if you wanted to get different, I guess you can include him as a one-off candidate.
DET@MIN
Lions have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Vikings have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation. Gibbs~ has a good rush potential.
Brosmer has a bad pass potential.
Lions TTR is 2nd (good).
Vikes TTR is 4th (meh).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd.
- The only way I want Goff is if he throws a pick 6, or MIN gets some fluke-y TDs, because if they play with a lead, I can see the volume suppressed to much. Since Wk11 (taking out ASBs injured game), ASB/JameO/Gibbs make up almost 75% of Goffs targets --- Gibbs is not only coming off a season (and maybe career in which Montgomery is active) high of 86% of snaps, making it b2b games over 80%+, I already alluded to his PPR floor w/ a 24% target share, less than 7 targets just once, but if his snaps remain over 80%, we have to just click his name and figure out the rest. ASBs knee injury scares me, but if he is active, I will stand on the side of playing into the lessened ownership if mass entering, the guy has 13 RZ targets in those 5 games, and we saw him have a great game post injury --- my fear is Brosmer letting the game blow wide open, so I understand the worry. Jame-o is fine, If you had to salary save/dart throw Zylstra/Firkser combined for 9 targets (neither less than 4), and TeSlaa is 2nd in RZ targets since campbell/laporta switch ups, I wouldn't go overboard, but if you need to fit in a star/want a scrub, those are some options.
In Brosmers last start, they were blown out by SEA --- now I obviously don't think we see 4 interceptions, but they really should be playing from a neutral to positive pass script again. In that start, Addison led with a big time 35% target share/11 aDOT --- the guy is in the 4K range and is probably my favorite play of the slate. I do think Jefferson is still to cheap for who he is as well, and don't mind trying to double stack this side of the game with only 6 teams to choose from. I'm totally all Nailor, he has targeted him just twice in 1.5 games, Hockenson has a fine target share/ppr floor (20% in brosmers last start), and there is not a lot of good options, but I think I'd rather the WRs here --- now if he is out, Oliver is a bit cheaper, and should see a huge uptick in snaps/usage, which was already trending that way to begin with, and this would just be a springboard. Both of these backs are Q, if one is out, we obviously can play the other, if both are in, I don't want mason, Jones could be considered, as he has shown some PPR safety, but he could be capped to 15 opps MAX, and has single digit downside.
DEN@KCC
Broncos have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation. Harvey has a meh rush potential.
Oladokun has a bad pressure rate situation. Pacheco~ has a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is 3rd (good).
Chiefs TTR is 6th (last/bad --- 7+ on 5th).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 3rd (bad/last).
- Since the bye (L4), Harvey is avg'g 60% of snaps, and has had a floor of 4 targets in all but 1 game, while scoring at least 1 TD in each. The script is there for them to run it up, and imo he should have a floor of 18~ opps with possible the highest TD equity among backs not named Gibbs. Bryant came back last week, and imo took back over the WR2 job, but now is in concussion protocol... looking back at Week15, when he was last out, Sutton had a big time 31.3% target share/13.6 aDOT, the other WRs didn't really see a jump in snaps, as DEN opted for my 2+ TE sets. Franklin imo looks a bit to expensive, despite a 6-85-1 stat line, but he didn't even hit a 19% target share, and the volume could be reduced in this matchup, I'd rather dart throw mims imo. The TEs here just don't get the volume we want, and there are other cheaper options in better situations.
Assuming Rice/Thornton are still out --- Oladokun had 16 pass attempts last week, and Pacheco had 5 of them (31.3%), he also played 73% of snaps and had 15 opps (7 targets), if he is going to see 73%~ of snaps again, he is absolutely viable in this 3 game slate. Looking at these TEs, I guess a lot of people are going to gravitate here, or maybe Ferguson? but in a positive pass script, Kelce had just 1 target, he's also the highest priced --- I don't think I leave him off completely because we know the potential is there, and the slate doesn't have a clear standout, but I will be underweight. Juju saw the biggest jump, as he played a team high 91% of snaps, and is almost floor priced, HELLO! I would think go Worthy>Hollywood as my targeted options.
