DFS/Props Week 14 Discussion

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
Anyone who went Shaheed as the cheapie and avoided Kamara definitely cashed with me, let's keep it rolling.

Thurs Night/Showdown Slate

LVR/LAR


Raiders have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Rams have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Carr has a good ASR matchup, Jacobs has a great ALY push.
Wolford? has a meh ASR matchup, Akers? has a bad ALY push.
Pace of play is dead last overall.

- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Ya-Sin (89%), LB Brown (80%) are out, DT Billings (51%), CB Averett (75%) are out for 2nd week, S Deablo (87%) is out for 4th week. On O, RB Jacobs is Q.
- LAR - On D, CB Long (54%) is out, DT Donald (89%), LB Lewis (48%) are out for 2nd week, DT Robinson (59%) is out for 3rd week, notable CB Hill (83%) is Q. I will note on OL, last week was the second time since week 5 they've had at least 3 of their week 1 starters in. On O, WR Powell/McCutcheon are Q, QB Wolford is Q.

- Weird game to approach, which makes it interesting. Jacobs has a great ALY push, but is going against one of the tougher DVOA matchups for RBs, odd. He's very high priced (2nd on the slate), carries re-injury risk, it's the weeks slowest paced game too, I see reasons to be underweight here. Having said that, if you wanted to load him up, there's no need to tell me twice. In his last 4 games he's averaging 31.25 opportunities/g, not looking it up, but that has to be the highest, and maybe by a decent margin, oh and 5.25 of which are targets too. We've seen him be a slate breaker, but again, I think I'd be more cautious here. If multi-entering, doing a lineup or 2 with White or Abdullah could be clever. Before getting into Adams, I'll say this, it looks HARD to capt. one, and have the other, so taking a stand against one and being correct may help you automatically beat half the field (maybe both can fit without either being capt, not sure yet, just making a point). If you do go Adams Capt, you'll probably need soem punt options, but we'll get to that. Adams, since renfrow being gone, has averaged a massive 36.2% target share, which equates to 12.5 targets/g, 1rzt/g, while maintaining a great aDOT/r of 11.1.... he by far has the safest floor/ceiling combo, and feels like a must play in some part of your lineup. Hollins is the WR2 who plays just as much, and his metrics really aren't bad, just overshadowed, he's been seeing 7.25 targets/g (21%) since renfrow, which is about 40% less, but he also costs about 40% less, I think he's a fine option. Unfortunately for WR3 Cole, he SOMEHOW has seen just an average of 1 target a game since renfrow's departure, fortunately for him? he is still seeing 60-70% of snaps, and he's priced at the minimum $200 salary, which absolutely keeps him on the list, and may be the punt option/salary saver you need. While I love Moreau's eveyrdown work, we may be needing a TD to payoff his salary, which I think is possible, as since Renfrows departure (and waller) he's led the team in RZ targets, and he also has a healthy TE aDOT/r of 9.6, it's just that he's seeing just 4.25 targets/g (12.3%) since that time, so I see where he can bust, but I don't hate him as an option.
The Rams gonna Ram. I guess we have to take a wait and see approach at QB, but it looks like it's either Wolford or Baker, sorry Bryce. Also Akers saw 72% of snaps to Williams 28% last week, which was almost an exact flip of the prior week where Williams led at 70%, is this a sign that Akers will lead, or are we going to go back and forth, if you could tell me which one was guaranteed to get 70% of snaps, I'd have interest in him, but I can't confidently say it, and if I'd have to pick, I think I'd rather go williams at his lower salary, but I'll have limited exposure to both, as the passing matchup is not only better, its cheaper, and could come at lower ownership. In the 2 weeks without Kupp & Robinson, Van Jefferson has led the team in snaps both weeks, and was a 100%'er last week. he has a 20% target share, and a good aDOT/r of 12.2. I want to prefer atwell over the similarly priced skowronek, and he does have the best aDOT/r on the team at 13.5 to skowroneks 6.5, while both having 14.3% of the target share, makes sense to like atwell, but I think all parties go here, and I see skowronek snaps at 97% last week, to tutu's 47% (which was a decline from the prior week), so give me the probably lower ownership in skowronek, who has more playing time than the other. I think he's a bigger plus if baker draws the start too, as he'll be the shorter/intermediate route runner. IF Powell is out, I actually have interest in the min priced. McCutcheon, in his last start, he played 48% of snaps (and powell saw 52% in that game), and was targetted 4 times... I'm not saying to lock him in, but he could even be a pivot in a lineup or 2 over Cole on the other side. Higbee returned from injury last week and played 84% of snaps, he had a 20% target share, (5 targets, 2 RZ), and a shallow aDOT/r of 3.5, but he's a very safe floor guy, and with a TD (which he has equity to get) could easily be optimal. I think captaining the correct Ram may be smarter, and help to fit in the Adams/Jacobs/Carrs of the world, if you want to go that route... if you get the right one, you probably win.
 
Last edited:
Wilson and watson were once again huge ballers on 5k salaries! Both scored 24+ points. No watson as packers off this week but dunno how you don’t continue putting Garrett wilson As 1 your wrs? He still under 6k, has put up huge numbers in every game zack Wilson hasn’t started, draws a bills d getting torched by number 1 wrs in a game jets will have to throw. I love him and white stacked again. White somehow still got 24 points despite 2 picks and no passing tds! Using those 2 gives you a lot of room to get other more expensive guys in! I like Goff with swift, st briwn, or chark again this week. Jefferson just too fuckinv expensive, I dunno how ppl fit those 9k guys in?? Give me the Vikings te in that matchup, he worth paying up for te imo as this game gonna have points and just cause I won’t have much Jefferson I’ll have a bunch the rest!
 
Wilson and watson were once again huge ballers on 5k salaries! Both scored 24+ points. No watson as packers off this week but dunno how you don’t continue putting Garrett wilson As 1 your wrs? He still under 6k, has put up huge numbers in every game zack Wilson hasn’t started, draws a bills d getting torched by number 1 wrs in a game jets will have to throw. I love him and white stacked again. White somehow still got 24 points despite 2 picks and no passing tds! Using those 2 gives you a lot of room to get other more expensive guys in! I like Goff with swift, st briwn, or chark again this week. Jefferson just too fuckinv expensive, I dunno how ppl fit those 9k guys in?? Give me the Vikings te in that matchup, he worth paying up for te imo as this game gonna have points and just cause I won’t have much Jefferson I’ll have a bunch the rest!
Jefferson expensive for a reason though. He's a machine
 
As for White----> Garrett I wouldn't be as eager to play them this week. I'd expect the Jets gameplan to be pounding the run and try to work off play action.... Bills are gonna make sure they don't get beat by the deep ball. Secondary looked much improved lw with White seeing more time & Xavier Rhodes in. White got picked 3x last time he played Buffalo.
 
Jefferson expensive for a reason though. He's a machine

Oh yea no doubt. There no arguing he worth the price most weeks and prob will be here, I just have my most success finding cheaper wrs who put up wr1 numbers. Garrett Wilson been fantastic last 2 weeks and so cheap, watson been scoring well into the 20s for 5200, it just really tough for me to put together a complete lineup I feel good about when I pony up for a guy like Jefferson. This weeks lions/det game should have all kinds of high scoring players, I’d love to use him but I rather be able to afford st brown, swift, Hockenson (lions awful vs te’s plus former team angle!). Im good using either qb, Goff a bit cheaper so been using him more but cousins viable also.
 
As for White----> Garrett I wouldn't be as eager to play them this week. I'd expect the Jets gameplan to be pounding the run and try to work off play action.... Bills are gonna make sure they don't get beat by the deep ball. Secondary looked much improved lw with White seeing more time & Xavier Rhodes in. White got picked 3x last time he played Buffalo.

I’m not as interested in white but him getting picked will most likely lead to them having to throw more. I’ll be on Garrett Wilson at least until he starts getting priced more like a 1 cause he has pretty much killed it in every game that loser zack Wilson wasn’t qb.
 
Feels like a good week to get off jacobs. Rams run d solid but more importantly he kinda banged up and has ran the ball 59x the last 2 weeks, can’t imagine he gonna see a monster workload on a short week where the passing game should be able to do some the heavy lifting.
 
Anyone who went Shaheed as the cheapie and avoided Kamara definitely cashed with me, let's keep it rolling.

Thurs Night/Showdown Slate

LVR/LAR


Raiders have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Rams have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Carr has a good ASR matchup, Jacobs has a great ALY push.
Wolford? has a meh ASR matchup, Akers? has a bad ALY push.
Pace of play is dead last overall.

- Injuries - LVR - On D, CB Ya-Sin (89%), LB Brown (80%) are out, DT Billings (51%), CB Averett (75%) are out for 2nd week, S Deablo (87%) is out for 4th week. On O, RB Jacobs is Q.
- LAR - On D, CB Long (54%) is out, DT Donald (89%), LB Lewis (48%) are out for 2nd week, DT Robinson (59%) is out for 3rd week, notable CB Hill (83%) is Q. I will note on OL, last week was the second time since week 5 they've had at least 3 of their week 1 starters in. On O, WR Powell/McCutcheon are Q, QB Wolford is Q.

- Weird game to approach, which makes it interesting. Jacobs has a great ALY push, but is going against one of the tougher DVOA matchups for RBs, odd. He's very high priced (2nd on the slate), carries re-injury risk, it's the weeks slowest paced game too, I see reasons to be underweight here. Having said that, if you wanted to load him up, there's no need to tell me twice. In his last 4 games he's averaging 31.25 opportunities/g, not looking it up, but that has to be the highest, and maybe by a decent margin, oh and 5.25 of which are targets too. We've seen him be a slate breaker, but again, I think I'd be more cautious here. If multi-entering, doing a lineup or 2 with White or Abdullah could be clever. Before getting into Adams, I'll say this, it looks HARD to capt. one, and have the other, so taking a stand against one and being correct may help you automatically beat half the field (maybe both can fit without either being capt, not sure yet, just making a point). If you do go Adams Capt, you'll probably need soem punt options, but we'll get to that. Adams, since renfrow being gone, has averaged a massive 36.2% target share, which equates to 12.5 targets/g, 1rzt/g, while maintain a great aDOT/r of 11.1.... he by far has the safest floor/ceiling combo, and feels like a must play in some part of your lineup. Hollins is the WR2 who plays just as much, and his metrics really aren't bad, just overshadowed, he's been seeing 7.25 targets/g (21%) since renfrow, which is about 40% less, but he also costs about 40% less, I think he's a fine option. Unfortunately for WR3 Cole, he SOMEHOW has seen just an average of 1 target a game since renfrow's departure, fortunately for him? he is still seeing 60-70% of snaps, and he's priced at the minimum $200 salary, which absolutely keeps him on the list, and may be the punt option/salary saver you need. While I love Moreau's eveyrdown work, we may be needing a TD to payoff his salary, which I think is possible, as seen Renfrows departure (and waller) he's led the team in RZ targets, and he also has a healthy TE aDOT/r of 9.6, it's just that he's seeing just 4.25 targets/g (12.3%) since that time, so I see where he can bust, but I don't hate him as an option.
The Rams gonna Ram. I guess we have to take a wait and see approach at QB, but it looks like it's either Wolford or Baker, sorry Bryce. Also Akers saw 72% of snaps to Williams 28% last week, which was almost an exact flip of the prior week where Williams led at 70%, is this a sign that Akers will lead, or are we going to go back and forth, if you could tell me which one was guaranteed to get 70% of snaps, I'd have interest in him, but I can't confidently say it, and if I'd have to pick, I think I'd rather go williams at his lower salary, but I'll have limited exposure to both, as the passing matchup is not only better, its cheaper, and could come at lower ownership. In the 2 weeks without Kupp & Robinson, Van Jefferson has led the team in snaps both weeks, and was a 100%'er last week. he has a 20% target share, and a good aDOT/r of 12.2. I want to prefer atwell over the similarly priced skowronek, and he does have the best aDOT/r on the team at 13.5 to skowroneks 6.5, while both having 14.3% of the target share, makes sense to like atwell, but I think all parties go here, and I see skowronek snaps at 97% last week, to tutu's 47% (which was a decline from the prior week), so give me the probably lower ownership in skowronek, who has more playing time than the other. I think he's a bigger plus if baker draws the start too, as he'll be the shorter/intermediate route runner. IF Powell is out, I actually have interest in the min priced. McCutcheon, in his last start, he played 48% of snaps (and powell saw 52% in that game), and was targetted 4 times... I'm not saying to lock him in, but he could even be a pivot in a lineup or 2 over Cole on the other side. Higbee returned from injury last week and played 84% of snaps, he had a 20% target share, (5 targets, 2 RZ), and a shallow aDOT/r of 3.5, but he's a very safe floor guy, and with a TD (which he has equity to get) could easily be optimal. I think captaining the correct Ram may be smarter, and help to fit in the Adams/Jacobs/Carrs of the world, if you want to go that route... if you get the right one, you probably win.

up to date.
 
1PM/Main Slate

MIN/DET


Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lions have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cousins has a great ASR matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup, Swift? has a good ALY push.
Vikes TTR is 7th.
Lions TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 2nd in MS/Overall. OURank is 1st.

- Injuries - MIN - On D, DE Bullard (39%) is out, CB Evans (39%) is out, CB Booth (71%) is out for 3rd week. S Smith (97%) is Q, and CB Dantzler (86%) may be returning. On OL, T/C Darrisaw/Bradbury are Q.
- DET - On D, LB Barnes (40%) is out, LB Okwara (32%) is out for 2nd week, LB Harris (71%) is out for 4th week. Notables S Harris (60%)/CB Okudah (86%) are Q. On O, WR Raymond is Q. On OL, G Awosika is out, and C (not starting at C) Brown is doubtful.

- We have a good where there are good matchups everywhere, with healthy TT's, great pace, and best OU, it's obviously a stacking candidate. Since becoming a Vike, Hockenson has owned a 21% target share, averaging 8 targets a game, 1.6 rzt/g too, he definitely could be considered on any slate, but you usually make a decision to completely punt the position, or get the big dog(s), really dog recently, in Kelce.... or Andrews. Jefferson is the most expensive WR on the slate, and for good reason, the guys in a fucking smash spot, and since Hocks arrival he has a massive 30% target share on this team, while maintaining an aDOT/r of 11.5 with that big sample size. It averages out to over 11 targets a game, and 2rzT/g too, he really has a 10-100 floor with TD equity, that's almost 2.5x value and can always be considered. Thielen is a poormans Jefferson, but he's about 40%+ cheaper than jefferson at 6.6 targets/g, and a decent aDOT/r of 8.5, if you want to play him ,I have no issues with it, and it's a pivot off of jefferson with the hopes he fails. I think we can pass on Osborn, his last 2 games were the lowest snaps he's seen since week 6, he's averaging 4 targets a game since hock, with a shallow 3.9 aDOT/r, and 0 RZ targets, pass, just go to theilen.
Looks like St.Brown/Chark/Reynolds show finally, and the first time since week 3 they played together, all 3 played between 79-87% of snaps last week, will Jameson Williams be more involved? Idk, but I'm guessing it would harm Reynolds the most (who is Q too), but williams price just can't be justified. My real thoughts here, is do we just go chark or st. brown? St. Brown is a PPR beast, as he had a 30%+ target share last week, which was good for 12 targets, his aDOT/r was 6.3, but Chark is like 45% cheaper, and he had a MASSIVE aDOT/r of 17.8 on 5 catches, and himself had a 15.4% target share, both are solid, but I think I'm going Chark more... Dantzler returning would mean he probably draws mostly st.brown in the slot too. Pass at TE. I'm sorry to those who've been riding Jamal Williams, and his fall forward TDs, but it looks like Swift is officially back. Can Jamaal still go 10-30-2 with a catch or two? Sure, but idk how you can pay for that, when he played chase 30% of snaps, and is priced similarly to swift, Give me all the Swift I can handle, who was much more efficient, saw over 50% of snaps for the first time in 5+ weeks, while he had 20 total opportunities (30% of which were targets), oh and he's just 5.8K on a team with the 2nd highest TT.


NYJ/BUF

Jets have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Carter? has a bad ALY push.
Singletary? has a meh ALY push.
Jets TTR is 19th (/20)
Bills TTR is T-3rd.
Pace of play is 1st in MS/Overall. OURank is 7th.

- Injuries - NYJ - Nothing terrible.
- BUF - On D, DT Philips (46%) is out, CB Benford (62%), LB Miller (61%) are out for 2nd week. Notable LB Milano (95%) is Q. On OL, notable T Dawkins is Q.

- Look, if you're really a believer in Mike White, and think he can do what he did vs a soft CHI D/MIN pass funnel against a BUF D getting healthier, than go ahead and try, but no shot I'll be on it. This game is top in pace, and the projected script could force the jets to pass, but at best I want to one-off a Jet here. Conklin has played over 70%+ of snaps with Mike White, and is averaging 5 targets/g in his starts, he's cheap enough where I'd consider it. Interestingly, in White's 2 games, he's targeted a WR in the RZ 15! times, which is pretty nice. Problem is 4 different ones have atleast 1/g averages. Wilson is the obvious choice, he leads the team in target share at 27.7%, while also having the best aDOT/r at a nice 12.2, I won't talk anyone off of him, if you want to go cheaper, you could argue davis, but he's almost half of what wilson is, and wilson still being semi cheap, idk if it makes sense to go not that much lower to davis. Pass on Moore. IFFF you can tell me Carter is returning to his bigger #1/timeshare role, I think he can be the sneaky option to own here, as RBs have been targeted almost 10 times a game with White, and I do project them to be playing from behind, he could be a super safe floor guy, at a cheap price, very low owned, and with a TD, really be sneaky optimal... but who knows if Zonovan has carved a nice role (plus Robinson still there too).
Alright, so Allen in his matchup against the jets didn't look like he performed so well stats wise, but really he was an RB1 with a poor pass performance (other RB1's get 0 pass performance), I think he goes under owned because of his perceived matchup, high price, and actual weather concerns. A note to the weather issues, which I usually don't get into until late sunday, while it seems to be snow/rain incoming, there is no winds at the moment, which is the real concern and a big plus. I do think you pair Allen with a pass catcher or two of his, Diggs is unquestionably an alpha WR1, on the season with a 30% target share, over 10 targets/g average, and a decent aDOT/r of 9.1, he can be played whenever. The arguement is his price, and can we fit him in, well if we can't, we have a guy in Gabe Davis, who we know is a slate breaker, that's been quiet for some time, but still sports an insane aDOT/r of 15.3, while averaging 6 targets/g. You could blink, and he may have 3-80-1 by halftime, the game here is 1st in pace, and the bills have a TTR of 3rd, that I really think flies under the radar. Shakir in his last start ate into mckenzie a bit, not sure if that's because they have a big lead, but 3 of the last 6 weeks he's struggled to just get too or not even reach 50% of snaps, I think he can be passed, as it's not hard just to get up to Davis. I don't really want Knox either, despite having good matchups, and no bad ones really, he's reached 10+ FPs since the bye (6 games) just once, and has had just 2 games above 4 targets, he's not priced like other cheapie's either.

BAL/PIT

Ravens have a meh P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Edwards? has a bad ALY push.
Pickett has a meh ASR matchup.
Ravens TTR is T-16th.
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 8th in MS, 10th overall. OURank is T-9th (last).

- Injuries - BAL - On D, 1 notable Q is LB Queen (94%). On O, Lamar is D. On OL, 2 notable Q's in G's Zeitler/Mekari.
- PIT - On D, 2 notable Q's in LB Watt (78%)/LB Reed (49%). On O, WR Johnson is Q.

- The matchup sucks, the pace isn't great, the OURank is tied for last. Not a game we want to stack, plus these two teams typically play in a divisional slugfest. The argument? Lamar is hurt, and Huntley is a cheap, nice rushing floor upside option. The other thing of note, The Ravens were in a 1 score game throughout and they let him sling it 32! times, I hate to say it, but in terms of pricing, there's no way we see a 25%+~ drop off in production in huntley compared to lamar, and I think he can be played naked, or stacked with one of the guys he peppered in Andrews/Robinson/Duvernay, but I like, gulp, Andrews, the most. He was the only receiving option above a 5 aDOT/r (he was at 9.8, which is phenomenal for a TE), and had a 20% target share last week, he will virtually go un-owned as well. I will note Duvernay played almost every snap, and may be my second option if I go there.
I still can't find myself clicking pickens over diontae (if diontae plays), he continues to lead in targets, as well as in the redzone, and they are priced practically the same, if I go here, it's Diontae or nothing. While a fantasy team of mine is happy with the production/more consistency of Najee since the bye, I don't really like his matchup, but I guess you can argue he's cheap enough for a RB who may get 20+ opportunities, I'll probably pass though. I'd like to say Friermuth is to expensive for my liking, but he does have a good matchup, he's averaging 7 targets a game since the bye (and on the season really), and has a decent TE aDOT/r of 7.3, I don't hate him, or love him, but maybe if you go Huntley+Duvernay you could bring it back with him (or double TE stack with Andrews/Frier, idk), again I'm not dumping a lot of shares into this guy, but just ideas. I obviously like him more if Diontae is out.

CLV/CIN

Browns have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Watson has the best ASR matchup, Chubb has a good ALY push.
Burrow has a meh ASR matchup, Mixon? has a great ALY push.
Browns TTR is T-10th.
Bengals TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 10th in MS (last), 12th overall. OURank is 2nd.

- Injuries - CLV - On D, LB Takitaki (65%) is out. On O, WR Cooper is Q.
- CIN - On D, nothing new. On O, TE Hurst is out.

- Watson didn't get discounted at all prior to his poor performance last week. He's in a weird spot with a not so great DVOA matchup, but he does have the best rated ASR matchup. It's also weird because the pace is dead last, yet the OURank is 2nd. I haven't made up my mind yet, but there's a chance I completely avoid this game, or game stack it a couple of times. Chubbs a savage, but he was targeted just once last week with Watson (and once the prior week), and in a supreme spot vs the texans he failed to reach 100 yards, I don't think he's a priority on DK's PPR format, but taking him in one or two, as he is can be a slate breaker, isn't a bad idea. If Cooper is out, David Bell becomes a floor priced WR2 option. I think Njoku could be the sleepr you'd want, cincy is most susceptible to them, he didn't play last week, and has had a floor of 80% of snaps in games he's started/completed.
While Perine's recent production scares me from a MIxon playing time perspective, I still think he can control 2/3rds of the snaps, and he comes in with a solid PPR floor, and a great ALY push. He'd be my top choice here. I think people like stacking Burrow + his pass catchers, and rightfully so, but I think being underweight here, in a scenario where I see a higher % of failure than most weeks is the smarter choice. I'd save them for 1-offs at best, and I think Boyd is the one I like the best, he's by far the cheapest, sees really the same playing time as the other 2, and quietly gets deeper routes than you'd expect, especially when Chase is in.... last week he led with an 11.5 aDOT/r. With no Hurst, Wilcox came on and played 72% of snaps, yet he had just 1 target, he is super cheap, and with a TD, he almost 3x's his value, so if you want, go for it, but I think it just helps supports the PPR backs, and one of the WRs more.

JAC/TEN

Jaguars have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good ASR matchup, Etienne has the worst ALY push.
Jaguars TTR is 14th.
Titans TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 9th in MS, 11th overall. OURank is 8th.

- Injuries - JAC - On D, LB Muma (33%) is out, notable S Cisco (99%) is Q. On O, QB Lawrence/WR Z. Jones are Q.
- TEN - On D, CB Avery (30% - 81% last week), CB Fulton 89% are out, and they're already out CB Molden/Farley/Johnson/Jackson too. LB Long (54%) is out, DT Autry (65%) is out for 3rd week. Notable DT's Simmons(82%)/Tart(45%) are Q. On O, WR Burks is out.

- Despite playing 80%+ since the robinson trade, Etienne has had just 2 of 6 games at or above 20 opportunities, and now he goes against a team we don't like playing RBs vs (them and WAS), so I'll pass on Etienne. Lawrence, if he plays, is cheap enough, and is in a pass funnel matchup, I don't want a ton of Lawrence, because I know it could get slowed down, plus if the Jags get a lead, the titans don't really play quicker from there 32nd ranked pace, and the jags may not have a reason to throw. Having said that, if we go here, Zay Jones has been a bit smaller mirror image of Kirk, with a much cheaper price. If Zay misses, I think that opens the door for a very cheap marvin jones to enter the player pool. Engram continues to see shalllow targets, and I don't think he's a necessity here, i'll probably pass, but won't fault you for going here, just know he has a bad floor.
Henry is a slate breaker, so I won't talk anyone off of him, but since Tanny's return, he's reached 20+ carries just once, and it was vs a GBP team where he had a great DVOA matchup, and the best ALY push.... he doesn't come close to having that this week, he's very expensive, and I see more reason to fade than play. With Burks out, it becomes just Woods and Ikhine to handle the WR load. Ikhine has queitly have an aDOT/r of 10.5 since week 10, and a 15% target share, and that was with Burks getting 17%, that has to be split between the 2, and I think both are solid value options to fill out your roster. Combined, they may get 50%+ of tannehills targets. Yes please. 27% of targets since week 10 have also gone to either Hooper or Okwonko, both are under 3K, and become the first cheapie punts I actually like. Onkwonko has a great TE aDOT/r of 9.1, but it is a small sample size. Hooper probably has a bit higher PPR floor/TD equity, but the arguement can be made for both.

HOU/DAL

Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
K. Allen? has the worst ASR matchup, Pierce has a meh ALY push.
Dak has a great ASR matchup. Pollard? has the best ALY push.
Texans TTR is 20th (last).
Cowboys TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 4th in MS, 5th overall. OURank is T-5th.

- Injuries - HOU - On D, DT Hinish (46%) is out, CB Stingley (97%) is out for 4th week, they may be returning S Arnold/DE Greenard. On O, WRs Cook/Collins are out.
- DAL - On D, CB Brown (90%) is out, notable LB VanderEsch (85%) is Q. On OL, they may be returning Tyron Smith.

- Man o man, this has got to be the biggest gapped main slate game we've had, where one team is #1 in TT, and the other is last in TTR. I know we see a tough WR matchup vs houston, and realistically, Dallas may not have to throw the ball after the 1st quarter, but again, they have the highest TT, so a pass catcher can definitely do well here, and will likely go under owned as everyone (and rightfully so) will be deciding between pollard/zeke. Idk if Lamb can be the one I back, he does have a massive target share on the team, but its the price with the possible baddd scenario that keeps me off. I think Gallup could be reasoned, he's seen a bigger target share on almost a weekly basis since Daks return, sees RZ targets, and is relatively cheap, sorry noah brown. If you don't want gallup and want exposure to the passing offense here, Schultz is the next man to consider. Since his and Daks return, he's averaging just under 6 targets/g, but has a decent aDOT/r of 7, as well as averaging almost 2 RZ targets/g, so he has great TD equity too while having a 19% target share of this offense, he's finished as a top 6 TE in 3 of the last 5 weeks (top 3 twice). Zeke or Pollard? Idk, for some reason, the cowboys just won't let Zeke go. He's seen his snaps rise in 3 straight (since returning from injury), he's cheaper than pollard, but without his TDs, he's struggled to even get to 10 FPs.... but the RBs here have arguably the biggest TD equity on the slate, so I can't fault anyone from going here, I just prefer pollard as he's not only more explosive and carries the same TD equity, he has a PPR floor, as he's averaging 4.25 targets/g since the bye. But I won't argue whichever way you go here.
We are not playing Kyle Allen, when you can get safer/more upside options a few hundred dollars higher. If HOU doesn't keep it close, Pierce won't get 20 opportunities, he has hit atleast 3 targets in 4 straight, but unless you see a script different than vegas, I'd pass. Houston has played 3 TEs last week, Akins seems to be the pass catcher who's getting more usage, as he has 11 targets in the last 2, Quitoriano has played the most though, hitting 71% last week, I'd probably pass here, but without Cooks/Collins someone has to get targets. Which leads me to Dorsett/Moore as well, both are at or near the min price, both need like 2 catches for 10 yards to hit their salaries... that's nothing, and I think you almost have to consider them as a punt/salary saver play. I think Moore is who I favor, and should be the shallower/ppr floor guy, and has actually seen more playing time the last 5~ weeks, with a 15% target share, while seeing RZ targets too.


PHI/NYG

Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Giants have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Sanders has a great ALY push.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup,
Eagles TTR is T-5th.
Giants TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 5th in MS, 6th overall. OURank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - PHI - On D, S Garnder-Johnson (92%) is out for 2nd week, but CB Maddox may be returning. DE Quinn (54%) is out for 2nd, DT Tuipulotu (38%) is out for 4th week.
- NYG - On D, CB Jackson (87%) is out for 3rd week, S Mckinney (100%) is still out, DE Williams (78%) is doubtful. On O, RB Barkley is Q.

- Man, Sanders doesn't get much love because of the vulture QB in hurts, and the other weapons on this team, but he's had some slate breaking weeks, and he has a quietly solid 4.9 YPC average, which is just behind Chubb/Jacobs/Jones/Pollard for backs over 150~ carries, and thats with going against WAS x2, and TEN x1, put some respect on the name! I did mention one of his issues, and the other is that he isn't used to much in the passing game, or when they fall behind. The great thing is they are faves, the pace/OURank are both on the better side, and he has a great ALY push, so he can easily get to 100+ and 1+ which would easily 3x his salary, and he may go under owned. Giants have been pretty stingy vs WRs, and Brown has climbed to #3 priced WR on the slate... not saying he's deserving of it, but I think we can collectively pass here and let others change the pass funnel performance last week. I don't think Brown sees 10+ targets, and he's averaged just 8/g on the season. Devonte also sees .75 less targets/g than brown, and a slightly smaller aDOT/r, but comes in 21% cheaper... If I target a pass catcher here, I'd probably settle on Smith. Watkins seems to solidified the WR3 designation on this team, if mass entering, you can make an arguement for him, over the last 3 weeks, w/o goedert, he's had a 15% target share, over 4 per game, and he's pretty cheap... but I'd save it for strictly mass entering and wouldn't have more than a share or so of him at best. Pass on Stoll, he just gets no volume.
If Barkley plays, and is projected to be low owned, I think he can absolutely be considered, and may be smart to be overweight. The eagles practically allowed 100 yard rushers in 4 of their games prior to the titans drubbing where TEN has to abandon the run. And I say practically because HOU/GBP/WAS all did it, and IND came close, but for some reason they refused to give taylor the ball after the first quarter (roughly off memory, but Taylor was on pace for 200+ and it was a neutral situation game for awhile, but they just stopped using him).... anyways, you get the point... Barkley also has a safe floor, with atleast 5 targets in 3 straight, as well as TD equity, injury concerns may scare even more people off to. I was going to say pass at NYG WRs, but I have to give a shoutout to Slayton, since Week 5, he's just about hit atleast 10 FPs in all but 1 game, and since the bye, he's played 80 to 92% of snaps (L4 weeks), he's had 8 targets/g over his last 3 with an aDOT/r of 11.6, and is only 5.1K, I think you can keep him in your player pool. Bellingers seeing the most shallow aDOT/r ever for a TE... pass.

4PMs/Main Slate Cont.

KCC/DEN


Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good ASR matchup. Pacheco has a good ALY push.
Russ has a bad ASR matchup, Murray has a good ALY push.
Chiefs TTR is T-3rd.
Broncos TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 3rd in MS, 4th overall. OURank is T-5th.

- Injuries - KCC - On OL, G Thuney is Q, who they haven't had past 2 weeks. On O, WR Toney is Q.
- DEN - On D, notable DT Jones (58%) is Q, On O, no WR Hamler/Sutton.

- Mahomes has put up 30+ points in half of his games this year, so I'll never not tell you to play him, he also has the 3rd best TTR, but 3 of his last 4 weeks have been his lowest pass attempt games of the season (even with him finishing as the QB2 twice), he's now going against one of his tougher matchups of the year, I can see the reason for failure, and why you'd avoid him. This lower passing volume as paved the way for Pacheco. I'd say go Mckinnon if you think they play from behind (nobody does...) but with a lead, it's pachecos role to lose, in those 4 weeks he's averaged around 50% of snaps, and has had 17.5 opportunities a game, not saying he's a must have, as he doesn't offer much PPR value, but he's a good pivot, and comes in extremely cheap at 5.7K. I know I mentioned mcKinnon, but if you really want to tell yourself a story of the broncos coming out here and playing with a lead, he's EXTREMELY cheap for a RB that sees 40-50% of snaps in this offense, and would have the bigger side of the role in that kind of script, but again, i'd save that for extreme mass entering, and only in a couple at most. With not really liking Mahomes here, idk if I want any of the WRs, with Toney coming back, there may be 4 WRs that struggle to reach 50% of snaps, gl picking which one, while Juju should lead the bunch at 70%+, this will be the week I don't play Watson/Moore and one of them hits a HR, book it. If you want to one-off someone not named Pacheco, and don't want to game/team stack, Kelce may be the guy, last week he had 6 targets, his lowest all year, he's finished as a top 3 TE every week but 3 times (once was 4th), and has slate breaking potential, it's still DEN D, but the pace is good, and they have a high TT, so someone should put in some work.
Am I being silly to suggest playing russ wilson this week!?!? He's so damn cheap, and would it really be asking for much to say he has a 250+/2+ floor in this matchup? If so, he's already 3X+ his salary, and that doesn't include the possibility of 300+ 3+. The better part is there's no sutton/hamler, which frees up 25%+ of the target share, Jeudy finally doesn't carry an injury designation and should see 80-90%+ of snaps, last week on 32% of snaps, he had 4 targets, and 65 yards, he's so cheap too. Hinton is the other WR we can consider, and may get to 80% of snaps as well, in the last 4 weeks, he's had 15% target share, but a shallow aDOT/r of 5.8, not a priority for me. The other man I'd really want if not Jeudy would be Dulcich, since seeing a playing time increase, he's averaging 5 targets/g, with a good aDOT/r of 8.6, and he's still cheaper than that middle group, everyone's averages should see an uptick with no sutton. Do I really like all these Broncos? I really don't want Murray, but he's 5.2K, the last 3 weeks he's averaging 67%~ of snaps, and 2 of those games he's had over 20 opportunities, with 3 targets/g, he's a pretty safe floor at that price, and technically has a good matchup, but if forced to throw I prefer Jeudy 10/10 times.

TBB/SFO

Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Brady has a great ASR matchup, Fournette? has a bad ALY push.
Purdy has a bad ASR matchup.
Bucs TTR is 18th.
49ers TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 6th in MS, 7th overall. OURank is T-9th.

- Injuries - TBB - On D, S Winfield (92%), and S Edwards (98%) are D. DE Hicks (57%), CB Murphy-Bunting (50%) are Q. On O, RB Fournette is Q. On OL, Wirfs is D (best OLineman).
- SFO - On D, DT Ridgeway (39%) is out. Notable DE Bosa (74%) is Q.

- Fournette/White were in a 60/40 split last week, neither got to 20 opportunities, which stinks, but the Bucs throw the ball more than anyone in the league (minus the chargers, it's by a lot), and both had 7/8 targets respectively, so there's some safety in them despite the time share, and if fournette misses, I will lock in White and move along. Godwin has been a PPR/Target machine but I'll continue to say Evans aDOT/r is so much better. Just last week Godwin was at 3.5, and Evans at 14. On the season its 4.7 to 11.3. I think Godwin for safety, and Evans for boom potential. With no Wirfs, it makes me worry about Bradys great ASR matchup, if he has to get rid of it quickly, obviously godwin is the choice. With no brate, i'd have insane interest in Otton, since he's back, I'll pass here.
I'm disappointed in Kittle last week, last week the 49ers attempted 41 passes, and he only had 3 targets. He played almost every down too. I still feel like it can be a scenario where they are in a position to do the same, and the bucs passing tendencies could keep time on the clock, his priced has dropped laughably low, his lowest of the year too, I don't hate it, I don't know if I'll do it though. CMC played a 49er season high of 82% of snaps, and had a massive 27 opportunity game with 10! targets. Nobodies talking about him, but 10 targets is a WR1 played that also gets carries... I think he should absolutely be considered. Deebo/Aiyuk had a very shallow aDOT/r with Purdy last week, and that may be by design, but I think I'll pass, and if I priortize this game I will with CMC/Kittle mostly.

CAR/SEA

Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks also have a good P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh ASR matchup, Foreman has a good ALY push.
Geno has a meh ASR matchup. Walker? has a meh ALY push.
Panthers TTR is T-10th.
Seahawks TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 7th in MS, T-8th overall. OURank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - CAR - Nothing really.
- SEA - On D, S Jones (52%) is out for 2nd week. Notable S Neal (81%) is Q. On O, RBs Walker/Dallas are GTD's. TE/WR Dissly/Metcalf are Q, but expected to play.

- If you think this is a close game, Foreman is a steal, if you think it's a blowout, Foreman is a wasted space. Vegas thinks it's close, the OU is good, and Foreman has a good ALY push (SEA also ranked 31st for RBs), so I think he can be considered. Darnold wasn't asked to do much in his return, as carolina played with a lead, and it led him to limited opportunities, but Moore still had a 35% target share, and finished with an aDOT/r of 24.3, and a stat line of 4-103-1, he's very cheap for a WR1 and can be considerd, idk if I'd go to the WR2s and on here, as Marshall was the 2nd snap count leader at just 62%, 2 TEs split time, too, they're all cheap, but I'd rather go else where with players priced in that range.
We have to take a wait and see approach for SEA. Are Walker/Dallas playing? If one or none play, does homer have the bigger role, will jones step in? It's definitely a headache I don't really want, the matchup is pretty meh too. What I would have interest in is Metcalf/Lockett. I've said this many times, but they both are similar in aDOT/r at 9.3/9.1, targets are close at 26.2%/23.6%, but RZ targets are 20/7, and Metcalf would be my 1A to Locketts 1B.
 
Last edited:
1PM/Main Slate

MIN/DET


Vikings have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lions have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cousins has a great ASR matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup, Swift? has a good ALY push.
Vikes TTR is 7th.
Lions TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 2nd in MS/Overall. OURank is 1st.

- Injuries - MIN - On D, DE Bullard (39%) is out, CB Evans (39%) is out, CB Booth (71%) is out for 3rd week. S Smith (97%) is Q, and CB Dantzler (86%) may be returning. On OL, T/C Darrisaw/Bradbury are Q.
- DET - On D, LB Barnes (40%) is out, LB Okwara (32%) is out for 2nd week, LB Harris (71%) is out for 4th week. Notables S Harris (60%)/CB Okudah (86%) are Q. On O, WR Raymond is Q. On OL, G Awosika is out, and C (not starting at C) Brown is doubtful.

- We have a good where there are good matchups everywhere, with healthy TT's, great pace, and best OU, it's obviously a stacking candidate. Since becoming a Vike, Hockenson has owned a 21% target share, averaging 8 targets a game, 1.6 rzt/g too, he definitely could be considered on any slate, but you usually make a decision to completely punt the position, or get the big dog(s), really dog recently, in Kelce.... or Andrews. Jefferson is the most expensive WR on the slate, and for good reason, the guys in a fucking smash spot, and since Hocks arrival he has a massive 30% target share on this team, while maintaining an aDOT/r of 11.5 with that big sample size. It averages out to over 11 targets a game, and 2rzT/g too, he really has a 10-100 floor with TD equity, that's almost 2.5x value and can always be considered. Thielen is a poormans Jefferson, but he's about 40%+ cheaper than jefferson at 6.6 targets/g, and a decent aDOT/r of 8.5, if you want to play him ,I have no issues with it, and it's a pivot off of jefferson with the hopes he fails. I think we can pass on Osborn, his last 2 games were the lowest snaps he's seen since week 6, he's averaging 4 targets a game since hock, with a shallow 3.9 aDOT/r, and 0 RZ targets, pass, just go to theilen.
Looks like St.Brown/Chark/Reynolds show finally, and the first time since week 3 they played together, all 3 played between 79-87% of snaps last week, will Jameson Williams be more involved? Idk, but I'm guessing it would harm Reynolds the most (who is Q too), but williams price just can't be justified. My real thoughts here, is do we just go chark or st. brown? St. Brown is a PPR beast, as he had a 30%+ target share last week, which was good for 12 targets, his aDOT/r was 6.3, but Chark is like 45% cheaper, and he had a MASSIVE aDOT/r of 17.8 on 5 catches, and himself had a 15.4% target share, both are solid, but I think I'm going Chark more... Dantzler returning would mean he probably draws mostly st.brown in the slot too. Pass at TE. I'm sorry to those who've been riding Jamal Williams, and his fall forward TDs, but it looks like Swift is officially back. Can Jamaal still go 10-30-2 with a catch or two? Sure, but idk how you can pay for that, when he played chase 30% of snaps, and is priced similarly to swift, Give me all the Swift I can handle, who was much more efficient, saw over 50% of snaps for the first time in 5+ weeks, while he had 20 total opportunities (30% of which were targets), oh and he's just 5.8K on a team with the 2nd highest TT.


NYJ/BUF

Jets have a bad P/RB matchup.
Bills have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Carter? has a bad ALY push.
Singletary? has a meh ALY push.
Jets TTR is 19th (/20)
Bills TTR is T-3rd.
Pace of play is 1st in MS/Overall. OURank is 7th.

- Injuries - NYJ - Nothing terrible.
- BUF - On D, DT Philips (46%) is out, CB Benford (62%), LB Miller (61%) are out for 2nd week. Notable LB Milano (95%) is Q. On OL, notable T Dawkins is Q.

- Look, if you're really a believer in Mike White, and think he can do what he did vs a soft CHI D/MIN pass funnel against a BUF D getting healthier, than go ahead and try, but no shot I'll be on it. This game is top in pace, and the projected script could force the jets to pass, but at best I want to one-off a Jet here. Conklin has played over 70%+ of snaps with Mike White, and is averaging 5 targets/g in his starts, he's cheap enough where I'd consider it. Interestingly, in White's 2 games, he's targeted a WR in the RZ 15! times, which is pretty nice. Problem is 4 different ones have atleast 1/g averages. Wilson is the obvious choice, he leads the team in target share at 27.7%, while also having the best aDOT/r at a nice 12.2, I won't talk anyone off of him, if you want to go cheaper, you could argue davis, but he's almost half of what wilson is, and wilson still being semi cheap, idk if it makes sense to go not that much lower to davis. Pass on Moore. IFFF you can tell me Carter is returning to his bigger #1/timeshare role, I think he can be the sneaky option to own here, as RBs have been targeted almost 10 times a game with White, and I do project them to be playing from behind, he could be a super safe floor guy, at a cheap price, very low owned, and with a TD, really be sneaky optimal... but who knows if Zonovan has carved a nice role (plus Robinson still there too).
Alright, so Allen in his matchup against the jets didn't look like he performed so well stats wise, but really he was an RB1 with a poor pass performance (other RB1's get 0 pass performance), I think he goes under owned because of his perceived matchup, high price, and actual weather concerns. A note to the weather issues, which I usually don't get into until late sunday, while it seems to be snow/rain incoming, there is no winds at the moment, which is the real concern and a big plus. I do think you pair Allen with a pass catcher or two of his, Diggs is unquestionably an alpha WR1, on the season with a 30% target share, over 10 targets/g average, and a decent aDOT/r of 9.1, he can be played whenever. The arguement is his price, and can we fit him in, well if we can't, we have a guy in Gabe Davis, who we know is a slate breaker, that's been quiet for some time, but still sports an insane aDOT/r of 15.3, while averaging 6 targets/g. You could blink, and he may have 3-80-1 by halftime, the game here is 1st in pace, and the bills have a TTR of 3rd, that I really think flies under the radar. Shakir in his last start ate into mckenzie a bit, not sure if that's because they have a big lead, but 3 of the last 6 weeks he's struggled to just get too or not even reach 50% of snaps, I think he can be passed, as it's not hard just to get up to Davis. I don't really want Knox either, despite having good matchups, and no bad ones really, he's reached 10+ FPs since the bye (6 games) just once, and has had just 2 games above 4 targets, he's not priced like other cheapie's either.

BAL/PIT

Ravens have a meh P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Edwards? has a bad ALY push.
Pickett has a meh ASR matchup.
Ravens TTR is T-16th.
Steelers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 8th in MS, 10th overall. OURank is T-9th (last).

- Injuries - BAL - On D, 1 notable Q is LB Queen (94%). On O, Lamar is D. On OL, 2 notable Q's in G's Zeitler/Mekari.
- PIT - On D, 2 notable Q's in LB Watt (78%)/LB Reed (49%). On O, WR Johnson is Q.

- The matchup sucks, the pace isn't great, the OURank is tied for last. Not a game we want to stack, plus these two teams typically play in a divisional slugfest. The argument? Lamar is hurt, and Huntley is a cheap, nice rushing floor upside option. The other thing of note, The Ravens were in a 1 score game throughout and they let him sling it 32! times, I hate to say it, but in terms of pricing, there's no way we see a 25%+~ drop off in production in huntley compared to lamar, and I think he can be played naked, or stacked with one of the guys he peppered in Andrews/Robinson/Duvernay, but I like, gulp, Andrews, the most. He was the only receiving option above a 5 aDOT/r (he was at 9.8, which is phenomenal for a TE), and had a 20% target share last week, he will virtually go un-owned as well. I will note Duvernay played almost every snap, and may be my second option if I go there.
I still can't find myself clicking pickens over diontae (if diontae plays), he continues to lead in targets, as well as in the redzone, and they are priced practically the same, if I go here, it's Diontae or nothing. While a fantasy team of mine is happy with the production/more consistency of Najee since the bye, I don't really like his matchup, but I guess you can argue he's cheap enough for a RB who may get 20+ opportunities, I'll probably pass though. I'd like to say Friermuth is to expensive for my liking, but he does have a good matchup, he's averaging 7 targets a game since the bye (and on the season really), and has a decent TE aDOT/r of 7.3, I don't hate him, or love him, but maybe if you go Huntley+Duvernay you could bring it back with him (or double TE stack with Andrews/Frier, idk), again I'm not dumping a lot of shares into this guy, but just ideas. I obviously like him more if Diontae is out.

CLV/CIN

Browns have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Watson has the best ASR matchup, Chubb has a good ALY push.
Burrow has a meh ASR matchup, Mixon? has a great ALY push.
Browns TTR is T-10th.
Bengals TTR is T-5th.
Pace of play is 10th in MS (last), 12th overall. OURank is 2nd.

- Injuries - CLV - On D, LB Takitaki (65%) is out. On O, WR Cooper is Q.
- CIN - On D, nothing new. On O, TE Hurst is out.

- Watson didn't get discounted at all prior to his poor performance last week. He's in a weird spot with a not so great DVOA matchup, but he does have the best rated ASR matchup. It's also weird because the pace is dead last, yet the OURank is 2nd. I haven't made up my mind yet, but there's a chance I completely avoid this game, or game stack it a couple of times. Chubbs a savage, but he was targeted just once last week with Watson (and once the prior week), and in a supreme spot vs the texans he failed to reach 100 yards, I don't think he's a priority on DK's PPR format, but taking him in one or two, as he is can be a slate breaker, isn't a bad idea. If Cooper is out, David Bell becomes a floor priced WR2 option. I think Njoku could be the sleepr you'd want, cincy is most susceptible to them, he didn't play last week, and has had a floor of 80% of snaps in games he's started/completed.
While Perine's recent production scares me from a MIxon playing time perspective, I still think he can control 2/3rds of the snaps, and he comes in with a solid PPR floor, and a great ALY push. He'd be my top choice here. I think people like stacking Burrow + his pass catchers, and rightfully so, but I think being underweight here, in a scenario where I see a higher % of failure than most weeks is the smarter choice. I'd save them for 1-offs at best, and I think Boyd is the one I like the best, he's by far the cheapest, sees really the same playing time as the other 2, and quietly gets deeper routes than you'd expect, especially when Chase is in.... last week he led with an 11.5 aDOT/r. With no Hurst, Wilcox came on and played 72% of snaps, yet he had just 1 target, he is super cheap, and with a TD, he almost 3x's his value, so if you want, go for it, but I think it just helps supports the PPR backs, and one of the WRs more.

JAC/TEN

Jaguars have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lawrence has a good ASR matchup, Etienne has the worst ALY push.
Jaguars TTR is 14th.
Titans TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 9th in MS, 11th overall. OURank is 8th.

- Injuries - JAC - On D, LB Muma (33%) is out, notable S Cisco (99%) is Q. On O, QB Lawrence/WR Z. Jones are Q.
- TEN - On D, CB Avery (30% - 81% last week), CB Fulton 89% are out, and they're already out CB Molden/Farley/Johnson/Jackson too. LB Long (54%) is out, DT Autry (65%) is out for 3rd week. Notable DT's Simmons(82%)/Tart(45%) are Q. On O, WR Burks is out.

- Despite playing 80%+ since the robinson trade, Etienne has had just 2 of 6 games at or above 20 opportunities, and now he goes against a team we don't like playing RBs vs (them and WAS), so I'll pass on Etienne. Lawrence, if he plays, is cheap enough, and is in a pass funnel matchup, I don't want a ton of Lawrence, because I know it could get slowed down, plus if the Jags get a lead, the titans don't really play quicker from there 32nd ranked pace, and the jags may not have a reason to throw. Having said that, if we go here, Zay Jones has been a bit smaller mirror image of Kirk, with a much cheaper price. If Zay misses, I think that opens the door for a very cheap marvin jones to enter the player pool. Engram continues to see shalllow targets, and I don't think he's a necessity here, i'll probably pass, but won't fault you for going here, just know he has a bad floor.
Henry is a slate breaker, so I won't talk anyone off of him, but since Tanny's return, he's reached 20+ carries just once, and it was vs a GBP team where he had a great DVOA matchup, and the best ALY push.... he doesn't come close to having that this week, he's very expensive, and I see more reason to fade than play. With Burks out, it becomes just Woods and Ikhine to handle the WR load. Ikhine has queitly have an aDOT/r of 10.5 since week 10, and a 15% target share, and that was with Burks getting 17%, that has to be split between the 2, and I think both are solid value options to fill out your roster. Combined, they may get 50%+ of tannehills targets. Yes please. 27% of targets since week 10 have also gone to either Hooper or Okwonko, both are under 3K, and become the first cheapie punts I actually like. Onkwonko has a great TE aDOT/r of 9.1, but it is a small sample size. Hooper probably has a bit higher PPR floor/TD equity, but the arguement can be made for both.

HOU/DAL

Texans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
K. Allen? has the worst ASR matchup, Pierce has a meh ALY push.
Dak has a great ASR matchup. Pollard? has the best ALY push.
Texans TTR is 20th (last).
Cowboys TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 4th in MS, 5th overall. OURank is T-5th.

- Injuries - HOU - On D, DT Hinish (46%) is out, CB Stingley (97%) is out for 4th week, they may be returning S Arnold/DE Greenard. On O, WRs Cook/Collins are out.
- DAL - On D, CB Brown (90%) is out, notable LB VanderEsch (85%) is Q. On OL, they may be returning Tyron Smith.

- Man o man, this has got to be the biggest gapped main slate game we've had, where one team is #1 in TT, and the other is last in TTR. I know we see a tough WR matchup vs houston, and realistically, Dallas may not have to throw the ball after the 1st quarter, but again, they have the highest TT, so a pass catcher can definitely do well here, and will likely go under owned as everyone (and rightfully so) will be deciding between pollard/zeke. Idk if Lamb can be the one I back, he does have a massive target share on the team, but its the price with the possible baddd scenario that keeps me off. I think Gallup could be reasoned, he's seen a bigger target share on almost a weekly basis since Daks return, sees RZ targets, and is relatively cheap, sorry noah brown. If you don't want gallup and want exposure to the passing offense here, Schultz is the next man to consider. Since his and Daks return, he's averaging just under 6 targets/g, but has a decent aDOT/r of 7, as well as averaging almost 2 RZ targets/g, so he has great TD equity too while having a 19% target share of this offense, he's finished as a top 6 TE in 3 of the last 5 weeks (top 3 twice). Zeke or Pollard? Idk, for some reason, the cowboys just won't let Zeke go. He's seen his snaps rise in 3 straight (since returning from injury), he's cheaper than pollard, but without his TDs, he's struggled to even get to 10 FPs.... but the RBs here have arguably the biggest TD equity on the slate, so I can't fault anyone from going here, I just prefer pollard as he's not only more explosive and carries the same TD equity, he has a PPR floor, as he's averaging 4.25 targets/g since the bye. But I won't argue whichever way you go here.
We are not playing Kyle Allen, when you can get safer/more upside options a few hundred dollars higher. If HOU doesn't keep it close, Pierce won't get 20 opportunities, he has hit atleast 3 targets in 4 straight, but unless you see a script different than vegas, I'd pass. Houston has played 3 TEs last week, Akins seems to be the pass catcher who's getting more usage, as he has 11 targets in the last 2, Quitoriano has played the most though, hitting 71% last week, I'd probably pass here, but without Cooks/Collins someone has to get targets. Which leads me to Dorsett/Moore as well, both are at or near the min price, both need like 2 catches for 10 yards to hit their salaries... that's nothing, and I think you almost have to consider them as a punt/salary saver play. I think Moore is who I favor, and should be the shallower/ppr floor guy, and has actually seen more playing time the last 5~ weeks, with a 15% target share, while seeing RZ targets too.


PHI/NYG

Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Giants have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Sanders has a great ALY push.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup,
Eagles TTR is T-5th.
Giants TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 5th in MS, 6th overall. OURank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - PHI - On D, S Garnder-Johnson (92%) is out for 2nd week, but CB Maddox may be returning. DE Quinn (54%) is out for 2nd, DT Tuipulotu (38%) is out for 4th week.
- NYG - On D, CB Jackson (87%) is out for 3rd week, S Mckinney (100%) is still out, DE Williams (78%) is doubtful. On O, RB Barkley is Q.

- Man, Sanders doesn't get much love because of the vulture QB in hurts, and the other weapons on this team, but he's had some slate breaking weeks, and he has a quietly solid 4.9 YPC average, which is just behind Chubb/Jacobs/Jones/Pollard for backs over 150~ carries, and thats with going against WAS x2, and TEN x1, put some respect on the name! I did mention one of his issues, and the other is that he isn't used to much in the passing game, or when they fall behind. The great thing is they are faves, the pace/OURank are both on the better side, and he has a great ALY push, so he can easily get to 100+ and 1+ which would easily 3x his salary, and he may go under owned. Giants have been pretty stingy vs WRs, and Brown has climbed to #3 priced WR on the slate... not saying he's deserving of it, but I think we can collectively pass here and let others change the pass funnel performance last week. I don't think Brown sees 10+ targets, and he's averaged just 8/g on the season. Devonte also sees .75 less targets/g than brown, and a slightly smaller aDOT/r, but comes in 21% cheaper... If I target a pass catcher here, I'd probably settle on Smith. Watkins seems to solidified the WR3 designation on this team, if mass entering, you can make an arguement for him, over the last 3 weeks, w/o goedert, he's had a 15% target share, over 4 per game, and he's pretty cheap... but I'd save it for strictly mass entering and wouldn't have more than a share or so of him at best. Pass on Stoll, he just gets no volume.
If Barkley plays, and is projected to be low owned, I think he can absolutely be considered, and may be smart to be overweight. The eagles practically allowed 100 yard rushers in 4 of their games prior to the titans drubbing where TEN has to abandon the run. And I say practically because HOU/GBP/WAS all did it, and IND came close, but for some reason they refused to give taylor the ball after the first quarter (roughly off memory, but Taylor was on pace for 200+ and it was a neutral situation game for awhile, but they just stopped using him).... anyways, you get the point... Barkley also has a safe floor, with atleast 5 targets in 3 straight, as well as TD equity, injury concerns may scare even more people off to. I was going to say pass at NYG WRs, but I have to give a shoutout to Slayton, since Week 5, he's just about hit atleast 10 FPs in all but 1 game, and since the bye, he's played 80 to 92% of snaps (L4 weeks), he's had 8 targets/g over his last 3 with an aDOT/r of 11.6, and is only 5.1K, I think you can keep him in your player pool. Bellingers seeing the most shallow aDOT/r ever for a TE... pass.

4PMs/Main Slate Cont.

KCC/DEN


Chiefs have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good ASR matchup. Pacheco has a good ALY push.
Russ has a bad ASR matchup, Murray has a good ALY push.
Chiefs TTR is T-3rd.
Broncos TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 3rd in MS, 4th overall. OURank is T-5th.

- Injuries - KCC - On OL, G Thuney is Q, who they haven't had past 2 weeks. On O, WR Toney is Q.
- DEN - On D, notable DT Jones (58%) is Q, On O, no WR Hamler/Sutton.

- Mahomes has put up 30+ points in half of his games this year, so I'll never not tell you to play him, he also has the 3rd best TTR, but 3 of his last 4 weeks have been his lowest pass attempt games of the season (even with him finishing as the QB2 twice), he's now going against one of his tougher matchups of the year, I can see the reason for failure, and why you'd avoid him. This lower passing volume as paved the way for Pacheco. I'd say go Mckinnon if you think they play from behind (nobody does...) but with a lead, it's pachecos role to lose, in those 4 weeks he's averaged around 50% of snaps, and has had 17.5 opportunities a game, not saying he's a must have, as he doesn't offer much PPR value, but he's a good pivot, and comes in extremely cheap at 5.7K. I know I mentioned mcKinnon, but if you really want to tell yourself a story of the broncos coming out here and playing with a lead, he's EXTREMELY cheap for a RB that sees 40-50% of snaps in this offense, and would have the bigger side of the role in that kind of script, but again, i'd save that for extreme mass entering, and only in a couple at most. With not really liking Mahomes here, idk if I want any of the WRs, with Toney coming back, there may be 4 WRs that struggle to reach 50% of snaps, gl picking which one, while Juju should lead the bunch at 70%+, this will be the week I don't play Watson/Moore and one of them hits a HR, book it. If you want to one-off someone not named Pacheco, and don't want to game/team stack, Kelce may be the guy, last week he had 6 targets, his lowest all year, he's finished as a top 3 TE every week but 3 times (once was 4th), and has slate breaking potential, it's still DEN D, but the pace is good, and they have a high TT, so someone should put in some work.
Am I being silly to suggest playing russ wilson this week!?!? He's so damn cheap, and would it really be asking for much to say he has a 250+/2+ floor in this matchup? If so, he's already 3X+ his salary, and that doesn't include the possibility of 300+ 3+. The better part is there's no sutton/hamler, which frees up 25%+ of the target share, Jeudy finally doesn't carry an injury designation and should see 80-90%+ of snaps, last week on 32% of snaps, he had 4 targets, and 65 yards, he's so cheap too. Hinton is the other WR we can consider, and may get to 80% of snaps as well, in the last 4 weeks, he's had 15% target share, but a shallow aDOT/r of 5.8, not a priority for me. The other man I'd really want if not Jeudy would be Dulcich, since seeing a playing time increase, he's averaging 5 targets/g, with a good aDOT/r of 8.6, and he's still cheaper than that middle group, everyone's averages should see an uptick with no sutton. Do I really like all these Broncos? I really don't want Murray, but he's 5.2K, the last 3 weeks he's averaging 67%~ of snaps, and 2 of those games he's had over 20 opportunities, with 3 targets/g, he's a pretty safe floor at that price, and technically has a good matchup, but if forced to throw I prefer Jeudy 10/10 times.

TBB/SFO

Bucs have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Brady has a great ASR matchup, Fournette? has a bad ALY push.
Purdy has a bad ASR matchup.
Bucs TTR is 18th.
49ers TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 6th in MS, 7th overall. OURank is T-9th.

- Injuries - TBB - On D, S Winfield (92%), and S Edwards (98%) are D. DE Hicks (57%), CB Murphy-Bunting (50%) are Q. On O, RB Fournette is Q. On OL, Wirfs is D (best OLineman).
- SFO - On D, DT Ridgeway (39%) is out. Notable DE Bosa (74%) is Q.

- Fournette/White were in a 60/40 split last week, neither got to 20 opportunities, which stinks, but the Bucs throw the ball more than anyone in the league (minus the chargers, it's by a lot), and both had 7/8 targets respectively, so there's some safety in them despite the time share, and if fournette misses, I will lock in White and move along. Godwin has been a PPR/Target machine but I'll continue to say Evans aDOT/r is so much better. Just last week Godwin was at 3.5, and Evans at 14. On the season its 4.7 to 11.3. I think Godwin for safety, and Evans for boom potential. With no Wirfs, it makes me worry about Bradys great ASR matchup, if he has to get rid of it quickly, obviously godwin is the choice. With no brate, i'd have insane interest in Otton, since he's back, I'll pass here.
I'm disappointed in Kittle last week, last week the 49ers attempted 41 passes, and he only had 3 targets. He played almost every down too. I still feel like it can be a scenario where they are in a position to do the same, and the bucs passing tendencies could keep time on the clock, his priced has dropped laughably low, his lowest of the year too, I don't hate it, I don't know if I'll do it though. CMC played a 49er season high of 82% of snaps, and had a massive 27 opportunity game with 10! targets. Nobodies talking about him, but 10 targets is a WR1 played that also gets carries... I think he should absolutely be considered. Deebo/Aiyuk had a very shallow aDOT/r with Purdy last week, and that may be by design, but I think I'll pass, and if I priortize this game I will with CMC/Kittle mostly.

CAR/SEA

Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks also have a good P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh ASR matchup, Foreman has a good ALY push.
Geno has a meh ASR matchup. Walker? has a meh ALY push.
Panthers TTR is T-10th.
Seahawks TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 7th in MS, T-8th overall. OURank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - CAR - Nothing really.
- SEA - On D, S Jones (52%) is out for 2nd week. Notable S Neal (81%) is Q. On O, RBs Walker/Dallas are GTD's. TE/WR Dissly/Metcalf are Q, but expected to play.

- If you think this is a close game, Foreman is a steal, if you think it's a blowout, Foreman is a wasted space. Vegas thinks it's close, the OU is good, and Foreman has a good ALY push (SEA also ranked 31st for RBs), so I think he can be considered. Darnold wasn't asked to do much in his return, as carolina played with a lead, and it led him to limited opportunities, but Moore still had a 35% target share, and finished with an aDOT/r of 24.3, and a stat line of 4-103-1, he's very cheap for a WR1 and can be considerd, idk if I'd go to the WR2s and on here, as Marshall was the 2nd snap count leader at just 62%, 2 TEs split time, too, they're all cheap, but I'd rather go else where with players priced in that range.
We have to take a wait and see approach for SEA. Are Walker/Dallas playing? If one or none play, does homer have the bigger role, will jones step in? It's definitely a headache I don't really want, the matchup is pretty meh too. What I would have interest in is Metcalf/Lockett. I've said this many times, but they both are similar in aDOT/r at 9.3/9.1, targets are close at 26.2%/23.6%, but RZ targets are 20/7, and Metcalf would be my 1A to Locketts 1B.
up to date, and maybe went to deep some places. but let's get it.
 
Some props I like this week

Big play on Henry 2tds+310- he's scored 2 tds in half the games vs Jax in the last 3 years. Tenn off two losses you know they will be going back to what works best for them & feeding the King. Yds over probably in play but if I were to do it I would play adjusted for better odds.

125/ 2tds pays +800


I think Allen o249.5 passing yards is a good one.
Also 249.5/ o1.5 passing tds+160 as I think he rips it today

PLayed gabe 2tds/rec yds over as well for my longshot
 
Almost forgot 1st ever defensive player prop

Poyer to get an int +330

Jets may try to pound the run but if they get down early White will have to wing it. Tre is back & Poyer should have a little more room to roam now as the secondary settles down (hopefully). Played small but I think it's a fun one that has a great shot.
 
Some props I like this week

Big play on Henry 2tds+310- he's scored 2 tds in half the games vs Jax in the last 3 years. Tenn off two losses you know they will be going back to what works best for them & feeding the King. Yds over probably in play but if I were to do it I would play adjusted for better odds.

125/ 2tds pays +800


I think Allen o249.5 passing yards is a good one.
Also 249.5/ o1.5 passing tds+160 as I think he rips it today

PLayed gabe 2tds/rec yds over as well for my longshot

We on same wave length w Henry. Just feels like a big day for him. There were 3-4 cheap backs i like but still tried to pay up for him a lot. Like his props also.
 
CAR/SEA

Panthers have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks also have a good P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh ASR matchup, Foreman has a good ALY push.
Geno has a meh ASR matchup. Walker? has a meh ALY push.
Panthers TTR is T-10th.
Seahawks TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 7th in MS, T-8th overall. OURank is T-3rd.

- Injuries - CAR - Nothing really.
- SEA - On D, S Jones (52%) is out for 2nd week. Notable S Neal (81%) is Q. On O, RBs Walker/Dallas are GTD's. TE/WR Dissly/Metcalf are Q, but expected to play.

- If you think this is a close game, Foreman is a steal, if you think it's a blowout, Foreman is a wasted space. Vegas thinks it's close, the OU is good, and Foreman has a good ALY push (SEA also ranked 31st for RBs), so I think he can be considered. Darnold wasn't asked to do much in his return, as carolina played with a lead, and it led him to limited opportunities, but Moore still had a 35% target share, and finished with an aDOT/r of 24.3, and a stat line of 4-103-1, he's very cheap for a WR1 and can be considerd, idk if I'd go to the WR2s and on here, as Marshall was the 2nd snap count leader at just 62%, 2 TEs split time, too, they're all cheap, but I'd rather go else where with players priced in that range.
We have to take a wait and see approach for SEA. Are Walker/Dallas playing? If one or none play, does homer have the bigger role, will jones step in? It's definitely a headache I don't really want, the matchup is pretty meh too. What I would have interest in is Metcalf/Lockett. I've said this many times, but they both are similar in aDOT/r at 9.3/9.1, targets are close at 26.2%/23.6%, but RZ targets are 20/7, and Metcalf would be my 1A to Locketts 1B.

Panthers d and foreman were what I found myself playing a lot. Panthers the 2nd cheapest d? I like their d and think this game gonna fall on geno, he been great but I dunno, I don’t think I’ll get killed playing them and think I could end up with a decent score out of really cheap d. Love foreman dfs and his over rush prop. Hadn’t thought bout Moore but I might try to slide him in a few.
 
PLayed Lamb rec yds o72.5/TD +215

Texans allow #1's a ton of yardage and I expect a couple tds from Dallas. Pollard worth a look but I'm not getting too involved with dual backs & blowout potential.
 
1 PMs

D. Schultz Rec Yds O32.5 -110 2.2-2
M. Sanders Rush Yds O61.5 -125 2.5-2
T. Boyd Rec Yds O40.5 -115 2.3-2
J. Allen Rush Yds O41.5 -110 2.2-2
J. Jefferson Rec Yds O94.5 -120 2.4-2

N. Westbrook-Ikhine Rec Yds O30.5 -115 1.15-1
J. Mixon Receptions O3.5 -125 1.25-1
D. Swift Rec Yds O24.5 -135 1.35-1
(wanted receptions but don't see it)

4 PMs

J. Jeudy Rec Yds O57.5 -125 5-4

D. Foreman Rush Yds O63.5 -115 2.3-2
C. McCaffrey Receptions O4.5 -145 2.9-2
(refraining from going more here...)

M. Valdes-Scantling Rec Yds O37.5 -115 1.15-1
 
glimpsing through inactives, here's some I saw

CB/S Harris (60% playing time starter) is out for DET, both Q Olineman for MIN are out, as well as starting S Smith (97% playing time starter)

Both Q LBs are in for Pitt, as well as Diontae. Ravens missing a G on the OL

Nothing major in NYJ/BUF

Amari Cooper is in for CLV, nothing new on CIN

Zay jones is in for JAC, but notable S Cisco is out (99% playing time starter), nothing new on TEN

Nothing major in DAL/HOU

DE Leonard Wiliams (78% playing time starter) is out for NYG, nothing else new, for them or PHI.
 
1 PMs

D. Schultz Rec Yds O32.5 -110 2.2-2
M. Sanders Rush Yds O61.5 -125 2.5-2
T. Boyd Rec Yds O40.5 -115 2.3-2
J. Allen Rush Yds O41.5 -110 2.2-2
J. Jefferson Rec Yds O94.5 -120 2.4-2

N. Westbrook-Ikhine Rec Yds O30.5 -115 1.15-1
J. Mixon Receptions O3.5 -125 1.25-1
D. Swift Rec Yds O24.5 -135 1.35-1
(wanted receptions but don't see it)

4 PMs

J. Jeudy Rec Yds O57.5 -125 5-4

D. Foreman Rush Yds O63.5 -115 2.3-2
C. McCaffrey Receptions O4.5 -145 2.9-2
(refraining from going more here...)

M. Valdes-Scantling Rec Yds O37.5 -115 1.15-1

I like the Westbrook-cline, swift and foreman, on all them. Swift I did rush + rec which I hate cause you pay a little extra tax just didn’t know which I preferred, rec prob the better choice but hopefully don’t matter. Gl today
 
1 PMs

D. Schultz Rec Yds O32.5 -110 2.2-2
M. Sanders Rush Yds O61.5 -125 2.5-2
T. Boyd Rec Yds O40.5 -115 2.3-2
J. Allen Rush Yds O41.5 -110 2.2-2
J. Jefferson Rec Yds O94.5 -120 2.4-2

N. Westbrook-Ikhine Rec Yds O30.5 -115 1.15-1
J. Mixon Receptions O3.5 -125 1.25-1
D. Swift Rec Yds O24.5 -135 1.35-1
(wanted receptions but don't see it)

4 PMs

J. Jeudy Rec Yds O57.5 -125 5-4

D. Foreman Rush Yds O63.5 -115 2.3-2
C. McCaffrey Receptions O4.5 -145 2.9-2
(refraining from going more here...)

M. Valdes-Scantling Rec Yds O37.5 -115 1.15-1

Wish I had a reception prop on Swift, and of course the only big play for 1PMs that lost was Boyd who got hurt.

4-4 +1.95

Quick template as I won't have time to go into detail..

MIA/LAC

Dolphins have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chargers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Tua has a good ASR matchup. Mostert? has a great ALY push.
Herbert has a good ASR matchup, Ekeler has a bad ALY push.
Pace of play is 3rd highest on the MS, and the OURank is #1.

- Injuries - MIA - On D, DE Ogbah (55%) out for 3rd week. On OL, notable T Armstead, who missed last week, and is their best OLineman is Q. On O, WR Cracraft is D, TE Smythe is Q.
- LAC - On D, DT Joseph-Day (72%), CB Callahan (62%), S James (100%) are all D. On O, pretty healthy, minus T Pipkins who's D, and missed last week.
 
1670806121598.png

Best lineup today, had 2 around the top 500 in the 100K to first, 396,353 entries, 3$ 20 entries max tourney.

I wish I had Engram, If Russ doesn't get hurt, you can't tell me he doesn't get 2 TDs (Definitely 1) and 300 yard bonus, could have possibly led more to MVS in theory too, but whatever.... coulda woulda shoulda, but Engram instead of schultz gets me top 5 I believe.
 
Monday Night/Showdown Slate

NEP/ARI


Pats have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cards have a bad P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a bad ASR matchup, Conner has a meh ALY push.
Pace of play is T-8th.

- Injuries - NEP - On D, S Mills (75%) is out for 2nd week. On O, WR Meyers is out, and RB Harris is D. On OL, T Wynn is out for 2nd week.
- ARI - On D, CB Murphy (100%) is out for 4th week. On O, WR Moore is out, of course TE Ertz too. On OL, T Coward is now out, while T Humphries/C Hudson/G Hernandez remain out.

- If Harris is indeed out. Stevenson becomes an insane back... in the 3 full games he's played without harris, he's averaged 86% snap rate, and 2 of those 3 games were blowouts. NO RB in the league can say they've done that kind of usage consistently this year. There's only been 9 other games in all of the nfl, spread across 6 backs that have even been over 90% in a game this year (Barkley x2, earlier in year, CMC x1, earlier in year, Taylor x2, recently, Fournette x1, earlier in year, Najee x1, recently, and soon to be mentioned Conner x2, recently). Back to stevenson, in those 3 games he's had an average of 21.33 opportunities, where almost 7 were targets, which gives him a great floor/ceiling combo, he's effectively been the starter since just week 5, and is 4th in the league for targets by a RB. What I'm getting at, is play him, and consider him as a capt. option. In games without Meyers, Parker has been the WR1, Agholor WR2, and Bourne/Thornton are fighting for WR3 and look evenly split in snaps. I'm X'ing Bourne out of my player pool, if he is the TD scorer, I'll eat it, but he's more expensive than Agholor and like 5X the price of Thornton, PASS. I think Agholor for PPR, and Parker for aDOT/r, aka ceiling, are the two I'd have, but Thornton is 100% the salary saver option here. I think people will see Henry (and Joonu) have the best rated matchups for fantasy TEs against ARI, but I think I'd rather pivot, and hope to be right to fade. He has seen a much better playing time share over Joonu in the last 2 games both played in(hitting over 80% snaps), but both had 6 total targets in those 2 games, and his aDOT/r isn't the best at 5.2 (joonu is 1.2). On the season, he's barely averaging above a 0.5 RZ targets/g too, I'd limit my exposure here.

Conner has actually been one of the other backs that has had an insane usage, and it's really been since his return week 9, his snap rates goes as follows, 71% in his return, then 96%, 77% (where they were blown up, and he didn't see a snap after the 13 minute mark in the 4th), and 97%. His last 3 week stretch of usage may actually be the highest in the NFL this year, and Dar Will. is still out. In those last 3 weeks, he's averaged 23.67 opportunities (better than stevenson), and has had a floor of 3 targets (which practically goes back to all season in which games he's started/finished). I actually was going to recommend him because he will probably go lower owned/captianed than stevenson, but I'm seeing now he's much more expensive (which could actually help that arguement), I don't know if I like it as much. Hollywood returned from injury, and immediately was an everydown player, he had 8 targets (30% target share), 2 in RZ, but his only knock was the shallow aDOT/r of 4.5. DHop still had 6 targets (22.2% target share), but with a massive aDOT/r of 14.3, which was even better than his average aDOT since returning, hollywood may be the reason for that. I think both can be played confidently. As for the WR3, we are in a conundrum, we don't really have the data to see who really takes the reigns with Anderson/Dortch/Green all possible. I want to leave Green out, aside from week 11 (w/ no hollywood/anderson) he (and dortch) did well target wise, but he really has not done much elsewhere, and he's the most expensive of the 3 by far. Last week, with no Dortch/hollywood, Anderson played slightly less, but had an extra target, and a much better aDOT/r, if I go that route, I'd take him or dortch as my ARI cheapie WR. Since Wk10, aka Ertz injury, McBride has played 75%-90% of snaps, but he's averaging just 2.66 targets/g, 0 RZ, and a shallow aDOT/r of 1.7, I'd say pass on him, but want to mention he's priced with the Dortch/Andersons of the world, and you atleast know he'll be on the field more... so I can see the argument for playing him.
 
Last edited:
6-6 +3.9 yesterday, lost the 4 small ones, CMC receptions, and Boyd Rec Yds (ugh).

D. Parker Rec Yds O37.5 -120 2.4-2

D. Hopkins Rec Yds O74.5 -115 1.15-1
M. Brown Receptions O5.5 +125 1-1.25


Waiting on an Agholor receptions, just see his Rec yds.
 
Back
Top