2-3 +0.55 got the ones that mattered atleast, also turned about 100% in showdown slates thanks to Cook.
1 PMs/Main Slate
PIT/ATL
Steelers have a great P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pickett has a good ASR matchup, Najee? has a great ALY push.
Patterson? has a good ALY push.
Steelers TTR is T-17th.
Falcons TTR is 14th.
Pace of play is 6th in MS, 9th overall. OURank is 9th in MS.
- Injuries - PIT - On D, DT Leal (26%) could return, otherwise a ton of Q's, LB Watt (77%) Jack (83%), Spillane (49%), CB Witherspoon (84%), DT Ogunjobi (64%). On OL, C Cole is Q. On O, RBs Snell/Harris are Q.
- ATL - On D, DT Graham (65%) out for 3rd week, DE Ebiketie (53%) is Q. On OL, they may be returning T Wilkinson. On O, obviously no more Pitts.
- From a game perspective, Pittsburgh has a ton of great matchups all over, and I think they win this game. The problem from a RB perspective is we have to not only take a wait and see approach, but with Najee out early, Snell and Macfarland were in like a 55-45% split, and that didn't account for Warren, who practiced fully this week. If Najee is out, and they come out and say "person X" will be our guy, each backup RB is under 5K and can be considered. Diontae Johnson continues to get cheaper and cheaper, to the point where it is pretty laughable. He's in a great spot, and is priced $100 more than pickens. The guy still gets targets and is now in 1 of his 2 best spots of the year... I wouldn't be shocked at an 8+-80+-1+ day, which would 4X his salary. If you want to go pickens instead, be my guest, he does have a better aDOT/r than Diontae, but he hasn't broke more than 6 targets in his last 6 (diontae has done it 4 times, and saw double the RZ targets, and plays more snaps, almost everydown work). I have other plans at TE, and he did disappoint me last week, but Friermuth is still averaging over 7 targets a game at a good TE aDOT/r of 7.3, I can't fault anyone for going here, but I probably won't be.
Idk if we can justify falcons at first glance. With Pitts, Atlanta had 3 TEs range between 39 and 61% of snaps, and all had atleast 1 target, there's no point to click and pray you pick the right one despite them being close to bare minimum. I do think Atlanta plays with a positive passing script, but we know that doesn't mean much with this team. In Londons first game without Pitts AND never being in a positive run script situation, he still mustered just 4 targets. Zaccheaus on the other hand, had 33% of the target share, and if that's the truth in the foreseeable future post Pitts I think he's cheap enough to consider at 3.6K, and would like to see his props (gulp). Patterson is starting to turn the tide back in his favor with snap count, but they both still had 11 carries... I know one day they'll 3X+ their salaries, but I'm not taking a shot at 100+-1+ points to do so, as 10-15 opportunities seems like a safe bet week to week, and they'd have to be super efficient to get it, not sure in this matchup that's it, despite a good ALY push.
WAS/NYG
Comms have a great P/RB matchup.
Giants have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Jones has a meh ASR matchup, Barkley has a bad ALY push.
Comms TTR is 15th.
Giants TTR is 22nd.
Pace of play is 10th in MS, 13th overall. OURank is 11th.
- Injuries - WAS - On D, 2 Q's, DE Young, CB St-Juste (90%). On OL, they may be returning Schweitzer, G Turner/C Larsen are Q. On O, TE Thomas is Q, RB Gibson is Q, no TE Rogers/RB McKissic of course.
- NYG - On D, CB Jackson (87%) is out, DE N Williams (45%) out for 4th week. Then a ton of Q's. DE L.Williams/CB Moreau/CB Holmes/S Belton/LB Coughlin. LB Ojulari/S Jefferson may return. On O, Still no WR Shep/Robinson, Slayton/James are Q. TE Bellinger is Q, RB Brightwell is Q. On OL, they may be returning G Bredeson.
- Another game where I think highly of a side, and that's Washington. I obviously hate how it looks like its 2 arrows pointing in opposite directions, but still, the matchups point to Commanders over Giants as well. Gibson continued his steak of atleast 3 targets to 9 games, but still saw less opportunities than Robinson. Robinson had his first game over 100 total yards, also saw 3 targets, and have 21 total opportunities on only 48% of snaps. He's only $100 more expensive than gibson (who may be out), and I think the commanders play with a lead, which bodes even better for him. I think he can be considered in your player pool, and definitely is if gibson is out. It looks like Thomas is going to play, and I was ready to say bates could be a dart throw, its been b2b games where they've combined 7 targets, but if both are active. pass. But keep an eye out on this in the future... both have played over 50% of snaps, and logan specifically has seen over 70% in 3 of last 4 and nobody his price range can say that. Don't think they'll be forced to throw in this one, so I'd avoid the WRs as a hole, but if you make a Barkley success kind of script, I'd bring it back with McLaurin as Heinicke has targetted him more than 8x/g with an aDOT/r of 10.6.
I guess Barkley can get there via targets or a multi TD game, but the game is to expensive for my liking. I don't want any giant really, but the reality is, I think they'll be playing from behind, and the WRs are all sub 3K.... we have to wait and see here, but if you wanted to salary save with one, I get it. (that goes for Bellinger/Cager too).
I will note, the pace is slow, and the OURank is kind of bad, so I wouldn't play more than 1 guy per team here
GBP/CHI
Packers have a great P/RB matchup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Rodgers has a great ASR matchup. Jones has a great ALY push.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup in the MS, Montgomery has a great ALY push.
Packers TTR is T-12th.
Bears TTR is T-19th.
Pace of play is 12th in MS (last), 15th overall (last). OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - GBP - On D, CB Stokes (89%) and LB Gary (70%) are out for 4th week, a couple of Q's, LB Campbell (92%), S Savage (86%). On O, RBs Jones/Dillon were Q, WR Doubs, and QB Rodgers.
- CHI - On D, S Jackson (94%) is out, and CB Gordon (97%)/S Brisker (99%) are Q and both still in concussion protocol --- this could be bad. CB Vildor (79%) is also Q. On O, obviously no WR Mooney/RB Herbert, WR Pettis is Q despite not participating Thursday.
- I want to say be careful of the pace... but remember what we just saw Mike White do to this defense? Well It could be just as bad this sunday (or worse) in the chicago secondary. If Rodgers plays, I have a feeling he's going to want to ball out with replacement talks, and he, as well as the WRs he can be paired with are cheap. (I'd prefer Lazard&Watson over Doubs/Cobb/Watkins/Tonyan). Not saying I'll be over exposed, but I'll have a couple shares of it. Obviously if one of these backs misses the game, the other becomes a great play. Tonyan has a shallow target rate, can dud you, and is like the last RZ target on the list of players on the field, pass.
The Bears WR are cheap enough to one-off, and in the first game without mooney, they also didn't have fields, so its hard to gauge last weeks opportunities... the biggest problem is 4 WRs not named claypool played between 21 and 54% of snaps, I guess Pringle is the WR2, and is bare minimum, but Claypool is at 3.8K so it's probably not hard to get up to him if you go that route, I think the best bet, but you'd have opportunity cost, is maybe Kmet, in Fields uprising the past 5~ fields weeks, he's been the TE1 or TE2 twice, so you know there's upside. Montgomery is a fine priced option, he has a good ALY push, should have a floor of 20 opportunities but Fields can vulture, and if they fall behind he could be scripted out even more, he's had 4 dud games when fields starting to ball, but I guess they were all when Herbert was there too.
NYJ/MIN
Jets have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Vikes have a bad P/RB matchup.
Knight? has a meh ALY push.
Cook has a meh ALY push.
Jets TTR is T-17th.
Vikes TTR is T-12th.
Pace of play is 1st in MS/overall. OURank is 6th.
- Injuries - NYJ - On O, RB Carter is doubtful. On OL, T Ogbuehi is doubtful, but they may be getting T Fant back.
- MIN - On D, CB Dantzler (86%) is out for 4th week, CB Booth (71%) is out for 2nd week. On OL, T Darrisaw out for 2nd week.
- Even if Carter is out, I don't want a part of this backfield unless robinson is somehow inactive again. Mike White is still cheap, and even though its chasing performance, he's going against a pass funnel defense that is still without a CB (and the replacement), and we saw what they just did in a game with less than ideal weather, now they're going to a dome, keep it on your list. Wilson is also cheap, he already looks like the go to target for white, and played the most snaps. He garnered a 28.6% target share, and an aDOT/r of over 10 (10.8), this was in a game where White had to stop throwing the ball, at least in this matchup, you can say it's more likely that this game is more competitive. Davis would be my only other consideration at WR but I probably won't go there unless mega stacking or multientering with this game being a focus. Conklin and Uzomah both saw 70%+ of snaps last week, both had 3 targets, I can see them continuing to eat into eachotehr and I'm not click and praying I choose the right one. I feel like I'd prefer Uzomah at the bare minimum price, and probably sub 0.1% owned.
I don't think Cook is a priority at all, but I do think people will see his price and think they can find a way just to pay up to get the bigger dogs, if he's going to be less than 3%~ owned, he could be worth a dart throw in tourneys... the guys in a bad matchup, but vikes are home faves, have a middle TTR, the best pace of the day, and is good for 20-25 opportunities, 4 of the past 5 weeks he's seen atleast 5 targets, and the one time he didn't, was the shellacking by dallas. Jefferson is a fucking savage, he has 11+ targets in 7 games, 7+ games over 100 yards, he's finished as the WR1 in ppr formats 3 times, and top 5 6 times (in 11 games)... he can always be considered, and we know he can break a slate. I will note, again, Theilen continues to see the same playing time, close aDOT/r, and gets 33% less targets on the season than Jefferson, yet he's just 44% cheaper, he's hit atleast 7 targets in every game since week 1 except the dallas shellacking, he's cheap, and a save option where a TD vaults him to optimal easily. Won't talk anyone off Hock, he's been a good target guy, but his aDOT/r is slipping, and he's the highest priced TE not named Kelce/Andrews.
CLV/HOU
Browns have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Texans have a great RB matchup, and good P matchup.
Chubb has a great ALY push.
Allen has a meh ASR matchup, Pierce has a good ALY push.
Browns TTR is 1st.
Texans TTR is T-19th.
Pace of play is 5th in MS, 8th overall. OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - CLV - On O, TE Njoku is out. On OL, C Pocic is out.
- HOU - On D, CB Stingley(97%) is out for 3rd week. On O, WR Cooks is out, RB Burkhead is Q with concussion.
- Man o man, the return of Watson, and of course it's against his previous team. I actually hope the field take the unknown variable and over play him, but I think I'm avoiding here. He may be limited in what he's asked to do, for 400 more you can get a burrow vs KC (or down to Lawrence/Rodgers types, so his pricing is kind of awkward, houston quietly has a decent pass D (although they are missing one of their key guys in the secondary for the 3rd week). And also, we know when we are playing Houston, we hammer the RBs.... barring injury, I don't see how Chubb doesn't go 25+ 125+ 1+, truthfully. he's coming off his 2nd highest snap count game, which was just 59%, but he still had a great 27 opportunities, they're faves, and watson may actually alleviate the rushing threat a bit more than brissett. I probably won't have the WRs here, but again, there's a chance they pop off, cooper is just a bit to expensive for my liking, and will only play these guys with Watson stacks. It Bryants one game without Njoku, he hit a season high 76% of snaps, where he went just 3-15-1, but even in games with Njoku he's hit atleast 4 targets in 5 of 8 games, he's right next to bare minimum, and can definitely be considered if punting the TE position.
If you're looking for a bring back option to chubb (or a watson stack), you have to ask yourself if houston keeps it competitive or not. In competitive games, Pierce could see 24+ opportunities, he actually has a good matchup on paper too, and he's getting relatively cheap for a back that can go 100+ with 4~ targets, and gets redzone work, oh and possibly without burkhead. Don't write him off. However, if they get smoked, you may get more of his last 2 weeks which were pathetically bad. Which brings me to the HOU pass catchers. In Cooks' first game with Kyle Allen he had a 13% target share that now needs to be dispersed. Collins had a 23.7% target share, he's cheap as hell, and I can see him getting 10+ targets easily. In tournaments if you want one lineup with dorsett/moore as min priced options, I won't blame you they'll probably see 60-80% of snaps, but I'll probably go all collins if i go here.
TEN/PHI
Titans have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Tannehill has a bad ASR matchup, Henry has a good ALY push.
Sanders has a bad ALY push.
Titans TTR is 21st.
Eagles TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 8th in MS, 11th overall. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - TEN - On D, LB Cunningham (54%) is out for 4th week, They have 3 semi backup CBs out, Johnson (23%), Farley (39%), Molden (55%), DE Autry (65%) out for 2nd week. DT Simmons (83%) is a notable Q. On O, WR Holister is out, RB Haskins is Q.
- PHI - On D, S Gardner-Johnson (92%) is out, DE Quinn (54%) is out, DT Tuipolotu (38%) is out for 3rd week, CB Maddox (80%) is out for 4th week.
- I'll probably be underweight the field in this game, but there is paths to massive success, and ideally, I think that happens if Titans play with a lead, as I don't think Philly will be able to run the ball, and Titans could struggle with passing the ball (despite the defensive injuries in PHI). If that happens, I think Henry could smash, he has a good ALY push, it's been the eagles Achilles heel, if that scenario plays out, I can see Henry getting 30+ opportunities. It is worth nothing that they are underdogs though, and in the 3 games burks has recently played with Tannehill, he's received atleast 6 targets, with an aDOT/r of 10.4, not bad for his price range... I'm hoping he still accumulates the targets but fails to score/stand out, so we can get him next week vs the jags.
If the eagles play with the lead, I still don't think I can stomach playing sanders, he's coming off a 24 opprtuniti game though, with 160 total yards, yet his price has dropped. Thing is, he's in a bad spot, and can continue to get vultured from Hurts, I just don't think its worth it, but I guess he will be a good low owned pivot if Vegas line plays out. Stoll has b2b 80% snap games where he has totaled just 1 target. Pass. If the scenario I hope plays out happens, and eagles are playing from behind, that's where we can turn to the pass catchers here. I know it's AJ Browns return, and he was an absolute slate breaking week 8, but DeVonta Smith comes in cheaper, and over the last 3 weeks, has had a massively quiet 35.6% target share, with a better aDOT/r than Brown too (and double the RZ targets), and a bit higher snap count.... I'm not sure I can pass that up, especially if everyone plays the brown revenge angle game, it makes Smith that much more appealing.
JAC/DET
Jaguars have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lions have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lawrence has a great ASR matchup.
Goff has the best ASR matchup.
Jags TTR is 3rd.
Lions TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is 2nd in MS, 4th overall. OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - JAC - On D, pretty clean, may be returning LB Chaisson too. On O, RBs Etienne/Henderson are Q, WR Zay Jones is Q.
- DET - On D, LB Okwara (32%) is out, DE Harris (71%) out for 3rd week. On OL, Brown is out for 2nd week.
- We have a game with everyone practically in a good spot, with awesome ASR's, 2nd best pace in the MS, and 2nd highest OURank, its a game stacking candidate for sure. I know its a Marvin Jones revenge game, but pass if Zay Jones suits up. Zay/Kirk both see 90% of snaps, since week 7 (the start of all 3 playing together again post injuries) they make up 50% of the target share, and it has actually gone up a bit as the weeks have gone on. I think either Kirk or Zay can be played, but they're practically identical, and Zay is cheaper, so he'd be my lean. There's cheaper TEs out there than engram that have safer floors, pass. We have to take a wait and see approach on Etiennes health, but if he's out, I still don't know if I want JaMycal in tourneys, as I'd rather pivot off the ownership in a spot I wouldn't be shocked he busts at. On 78% snaps, he had just 17 opportunities, and a 2.3 YPC average, it'll actually make me like lawrence more, plus will henderson have a share of his snaps too? Idk, there's enough ?'s that I'd rather let others chase.
Jamaal williams without his TDs has been pretty bad, and hasn't reached 50% of snaps in the last 3 weeks. Swift got up to 34% last week, his highest in the past 4 weeks, he continues to show no setbacks, and it's a matter of time before he takes on a bigger role... I know it's risky, but eventually he will see increased volume, and maybe taking a shot in a lineup or two can be worth it... he has had at least 3 targets, actually in every game this season, and is still heavily involved when it counts, the redzone.... he's cheaper than jamaal too, and may come in at peanuts of ownership %. I think St. Brown can be played every week, he is a target monster, and with a TD he can be a slate breaker (see last week), I will note Chark is peanuts at 3.8K, compared to St. Browns 7.1K, and saw 73% of snaps last week, I think he can be a pivot or part of a game stack in this matchup. Raymond saw his worst snap count since week 5 due to charks rise, and that number will only go lower with Reynolds back too, avoid him. The TEs get to shallow of routes, and not enough usage, pass.
DEN/BAL
Broncos have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Ravens have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Russ has a bad ASR matchup.
Broncos TTR is 24th (last).
Ravens TTR is T-8th.
Pace of play is 7th in MS, 10th overall. OURank is 12th (last).
- Injuries - DEN - On D, CB Williams (69%) is out for 3rd week, LB Griffith (59%) out for 4th week. On O, TE Beck is out, WR Hamler is out, and WRs SuttonJeudy are Q.
- BAL - On D, 2 Q's, CB Humphrey (95%), and S Hamilton (42%). On OL, T Stanlley is Q. On O, Still no RB Dobbins/WR Bateman.
- We just never want to play a denver player for fantasy purposes. They have a bad matchup, the worst TTR, but I guess they do come super cheap. I can't recommend Boone, but I do think he becomes the RB1, and may have a decent ppr floor if he continues the minimum 3 target pace (where he was fighting to actually be the starter). With Jeudy and Sutton back it'll be the first time since week 8 they've played together, I could see atleast one getting 10 targets, and with a TD, be a top 12~ WR, they're definitely going to be playing from behind, and balty has been really good to WRs for fantasy purposes (Am I really talking myself into playing a Bronco...). I'm definitely passing on dulcich, since the bye, he's seen his targets drop and his aDOT/r, I guess maybe with both the bigger WRs back it opens up space for him, but i'll wait and see.
This will be the week I don't play Andrews and he goes off.... from a FP perspective, he didn't do bad compared to all TEs, but he's also priced as the TE2, so that opportunity cost is what burns you. He did had 2 RZ targets, and 7 all together, with an aDOT/r of 8.8 that is at the top for TE's, so can he crush? yes... I just won't have much exposure. The problem with the ravens recently, is while they're slow in general, they've been fine with dialing it down after they build a lead, as they are ranked 25th in neutral situations but overall are 31st in secs per play. I think the Broncos can give them chances to play faster, and they have a decent TTR that Lamar realistically could be apart of all the TDs... I think overall they go low owned and could be an interesting tournament pivot, but I'll have minimal of.
4PMs/Main Slate Cont.
MIA/SFO
Dolphins have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
49ers have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Wilson? has the worst ALY matchup.
Garop has a good ASR matchup.
Dolphins TTR is 16th.
49ers TTR is 6th.
Pace of play is 11th in MS, 14th overall. OURank is 5th.
- Injuries - MIA - On D, DE Ogbah (55%) is out for 2nd week. On OL, T Armstead, there best rated OLineman by a lot, is doubtful, and they're already missing G Jackson/T Eichenberg, uhoh.
- SFO - On OL, ironically, T Williams is Q for 49ers, who's there best OLineman by a lot, something to monitor. T Burford is Q as well, despite being in a boot after sundays game vs the saints. On O, WR Deebo is a GTD.
- Both of these are on the slower side of pace, but both very efficient/explosive. Having said that, I think there is scenarios where this game can get silly. Miami's already a pass first team, and not only have a terrible run matchup, but they will likely be out their best lineman in Armstead. Being forced to pass is good for us, as they have 2 guys that make up over 50%+ of the target share, and may go lower owned than expected given the matchup, and the other bigger games in this slate. I want exposure here.
IF Miami can play with a lead, it will force 49er's hand. They also have a meh R matchup, but there's no Eli Mitchell, there's possibly no Deebo, that makes way to really 3.5 players, CMC, Aiyuk, Kittle, Jennings. 49ers have really been playing from behind in just 3 games, week 6/7/10 vs ATL/KC/LAC, he had pass attempts of 41/37/28, we know the chargers are more of a run funnel, and kittle had a poor performance there, but in weeks 6/7 he had 10 and 9 targets, he's an everydown player, Miami is ranked 30th against TEs in FPs, there's possibly targets opened up even more without deebo, people typically punt the position or go up to the Kelces of the world... I think he's an amazing tournament option with a very wide range. If deebo is out Jennings is a cheap punt option at 3.2K. I really can see CMC getting 10+ targets, but he's expensive as hell, he play not have his normal workload, and Ekeler is in a better prime spot at that price, but sure if you want him go ahead.
SEA/LAR
Seahawks have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Rams have a good P/RB matchup.
Walker has a meh ALY push.
Wolford? has a meh ASR matchup.
Seahawks TTR is 11th.
Rams TTR is 23th.
Pace of play is 9th in MS, 12th overall. OURank is 10th.
- Injuries - SEA - On D, 2 S's are Q, Jones (52%), and Neal (82%). On O, no RB Homer.
- LAR - On D, LB Lewis (48%) is out, DT Donald (89%) is out, DT Robinson (59%) is out for 2nd week. 2 Q's in LB Jones (71%), and CB Hill (83%)
- Ya know, I wanted to come here and say for how abysmal the offense is, the defense has been relatively healthy and playing well for the rams, and maybe we should temper some SEA offensive expectations. But now I see donald is out, and a few other players, and walkers direct backup out, he may be in line for 80%+ of snaps, and we know he's not far removed from 20-30 opportunities. In the 6 games he's started, he's finished as a top 8 PPR back half the time, (top 3 twice), he has 3 multi TD games too in that span, I don't know if I want to pay his price, and I guess there is always the case that they blow them out and his playign time is reduced, but I don't think he's a bad play. Lockett has scored in 4 straight games and broke the top 21 WRs for the week in just one of those games, I still prefer Metcalfs upside to his, but they are both similar, and again I'll have limited exposure at best.
In Wolfords only game this season, and where Kupp played 67% of snaps before injury, he and robinson made up 30% of the target share. Yet the most targeted player was Skowronek, at 7 targets, and now doesn't have the other 2 in the picture. I actually don't hate him at 3.5K. If you're struggling to find value, and don't want to go the WR route, Kyren Williams played 70% of snaps last week, and in limited opportunity week 10 (27% of snaps) he did see 3 targets from Wolford, and finished with 14 opportunities last week.... if you can picture 5~ target range, and 20~ opportunities, he's absolutely worth it at 5.2K and NOBODY will be playing him.
LAC/LVR
Chargers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Raiders have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Herbert has a great ASR matchup. Ekeler has a bad ALY push.
Carr has a good ASR matchup, Jacobs? has the best ALY push.
Chargers TTR is T-8th.
Raiders TTR is T-4th.
Pace of play is 3rd in MS, 5th overall. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - LAC - On D, Notables LB Tranquill (93%), S Adderley (90%) are Q. On OL, Best rated OLineman C Linsley is out, T Pipkins is also out. On O, WR Williams is out.
- LVR - On D, S Deablo (87%) is out for 4th week, DT Vickers (42%) is out for 3rd week, CB Averett (75%) is out for 2nd week, notables LB Perryman (61%)/DT Billings (51%) are Q. On O, RBs Jacobs and Bolden are Q.
- Beautiful matchups, and great pace/totals. Game stacking candidate. Chargers are the 2nd highest pass play% team in the league (and shockingly, raiders are 8th). Ekeler has hit ATLEAST TWELVE targets in 4 of his last 6, that's absolutely bonkers, he's also averaging 1.5 TDs/g since week 4, he's finished as a top 8 RB in 7 of his last 8 weeks, top 3 in 5 of them, and now goes against a raiders D that has been very bad. If you can play him, you just do it. Keenan Allen has seen no setbacks for 2 straight weeks, and played 89% of snaps last week, he's a bit too cheap playing as the WR1 for a pass heavy team in a sexy matchup. I still think I prefer Carters salary savings over Palmer, but I won't fault you for going the opposite direction and not chasing. Pass at TE, he receives shallow targets, and is probably the 5th option on the team.
Man, I wish Jacobs was healthy. if not, it looks like Abdullah would be the next man up, and he's super cheap to not slot in, the problem is the 4PM start time. You can probably get a huge leg up if you go like Pacheco/Jacobs and switch to Ekeler/Abdullah if Jacobs is out, as he will go under owned with people having to set their rosters by 1 without knowing if he's in or not. Adams is #1 in target share in the whole league, he's averaging over 11 targets total, he gets almost 1.5 RZtargets/g, with a good aDOT/r of 9... that's possibly 20 points without a TD or the 100 yard bonus, you can't argue that, but he is expensive, and do you prefer to go to hill/jefferson, or down to chase/brown/waddle/st.brown .etc, Hollins is always a value play as he plays 100% of snaps really and is cheap, but i'll probably pass. Moreau is also a 100% snap guy, he doesn't break the bank, and is a safe floor guy, he has a TD in 2 of his last 3, and I think they'll be playing from behind, he's on my list.
KCC/CIN
Chiefs have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a good P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a great ASR matchup. Pacheco has a good ALY push.
Burrow has a bad ASR matchup. Mixon? has a good ALY push.
Chiefs TTR is 2nd.
Bengals TTR is T-4th.
Pace of play is 4th in MS, 6th overall. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - KCC - On O, no RB Helaire, WR Hardman/Toney.
- CIN - On D, CB Awuzie (90%) is out for 4th week. On O, RB Mixon is Q, WR Chase is Q.
- Ok, so we got the game of the week here, everyone will go here first to game stack, which is probably the biggest reason to pivot away. Pacheco has became the lead back, hitting 51% of snaps, in just that limited snap count, he had 23 opportunities... the problem is 22 were rush attempts., and he barely touched 3.3 YPC. Not sure if I can stomach that. Justin Watson has led the team in snap count in b2b games, he was at 84% last week, nobody else was over 59%, he hasn't done much with it, but he's still the cheapest of the bunches, and it's only a matter of time before the playing time turns into something. If Juju sees a rise in playing time, I think that limits my expectations of Moore/MVS (MVS is my least favorite), and him/watson would be my priorities. Kelces a fucking savage, hes been a top 3 PPR TE in EVERY WEEK but twice, and once it was 4th. he has yet to finish below 7 targets, he's averaging a touch over a TD/g, if you want to pay up for him, I'll never talk you off of it.
I hope mixon doesn't play, i'd rather have a cheaper perine, but not sure I go RB here in either way, despite the ability for them to have a decent PPR floor. I don't want hurst, he's coming off a 9 target game, but he has a shallow aDOT, and chase drops him further down the totem pole. He's also similarly priced to Moreau (who's probably the 3rd target on that team, and plays 100% of snaps), while playing just 66%~ of snaps. Higgins>Boyd>Chase are the WRs I want in that order.
