ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Just getting down the turkey day slate/template.
TTR/OUR/Pace will be for the 3 game slate unless overall is mentioned.
Thursday Slate (TS)
BUF/DET
Bills have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lions have a bad P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great ASR matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup.
Bills TTR is 1st (5 points over 2nd, and almost 10 points over the T-3rds)
Lions TTR is T-3rd.
Pace of play is 1st in the TS, and 2nd overall. OURank is 1st in the TS, by more than a TD.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, LB Edmunds/DE Rousseau are Q.
- DET - On D, CB Okudah is doubtful (ouch), couple of other Q's. On O, WR Chark/Reynolds are Q, and WR Williams is designated to return from IR (but shouldn't play this week).
- I'm not totally sure about salaries/roster construction, but I can promise you Brock Wright is one of the cheapest. Since Hockenson's departure, he has played 81/74/75% of snaps, While that's only translated into 4 targets, he's been looked at in the RZ, and what we're banking on here would be a TD. He could be a bring back/stack option to fit in, in a script that should favor passing. St. Brown has a massive 38% target share since Hock's departure, translating into 9 targets a game, he seems cheap at 6.6K in a script that should favor Goff's #1 target, Goff's projected to have time in the pocket too, which will only help, and keep in mind, 2 of those 3 games had neutral to negative passing scripts.... go St. Brown! In Chark's return, he only saw 16% of snaps, but they played with a lead throughout, and the run game was rumbling, I think he sees a decent uptick, and can be a lower owned pivot off of Raymond/Reynolds..., but I'd like to be different, and I think people will see 16% snaps, and stay away, remember weeks 1-3 before his injury, he was averaging 6 targets a game and a nice 11.1 aDOT. Speaking of Raymond, if reynolds and chark are back, I'm passing here, as he should definitely be the odd man out. Copy my chark comments for reynolds. The DET RB situation may make or break your lineup. I don't think Jamaal williams will succeed unless he has early success, in the last 3 games he has a total of ZERO targets, which I can't take on a PPR site. The lions are huge underdogs too. Since returning, yes, swift hasn't been used as much, I'd like to think he pushes past 31% snaps (jamaal led at 48% last week), in those 4 games upon returning he hasn't had fewer than 3 targets, they use him in the RZ where it counts... I think he can be considered. IFFFF you want, I think justin jackson can be played in a lineup, there are scenarios where the lions are blown out, where he'll be incredible value, but without it, he's received 8.5 touches past 2 weeks, average of 2 targets, and 52.5 yards.
Since returning from injury. Knox has seen over 80% snap count, and has never had fewer than 3 targets in a game, while seeing increasing usage the last 2 weeks. He's not much more expensive then Wright, but again, idk if salaries force us to punt here or not yet. Despite being frustrated, and seeing just 5 targets last week, Diggs still owns a 29% target share on one of the best passing offenses in the league. Play him if you can. Davis has seen his usage tick up as well since the bye week, he only has 1 TD in since the bye (4 games), But in those 4 games, he also has a really good 23.5% target share, and a really good aDOT/r of 13.3, a homerun hit is in his future, plus he's about 1/3rd cheaper than diggs..... Mckenzie is cheap enough to plug and play, but his usage has sucked, and he may now be the 5th best option on the team, maybe without okudah it opens it up for him? but idk. I never really care for singletary, but you can argue Allen may not vulture him as much until he's back to full health, and there are not many RBs at his salary that see over 70% of the field, and play for a top scoring offense. I still don't think I'll have much though as I prefer the passing options here, what also hurts him, is if the bills take a big lead, James Cook could takeover like last week... last week may even have given him more time to see the field in competitive games too, I think he could be played in a lineup.
NYG/DAL
Giants have a meh RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, and a good P matchup.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup. Barkley has a meh ALY push.
Dak has a great ASR matchup. Pollard? has a great ALY push.
Giants TTR is 6th (last).
Cowboys TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 2nd in the TS, 5th overall. OURank is 2nd in the TS.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, no CB Jackson (ouch) CBs Pinnock/Moreau are Q, Moreau didn't practice, S McKinney out for 3rd week, DE Williams out for 3rd week. On O, no TE Bellinger, no WR Robinson. On OL, a lot of Q's, and some lineup that we're ruled out mid game on sunday, something to keep an eye on.
- DAL - On D, a few Q's (notable Lawrence/Parsons/Barr). On O, RB Zeke is Q.
- I mean, do we really like the giants here? Nothing stands out... worst TTR, bad matchups at DVOA/Line/Pressure rate, I guess the pace? In the Giants 3 losses this season, Barkley is averaging 16.3 carries, 4.66 targets, 74.3 total yards. That's still a good floor, and he's obviously the focal point. But he could easily be shutdown just like last week and I wouldn't be surprised He's the most expensive back, and I don't think he needs to be jammed into lineups. Wandale had 13 targets last week, equaling a 33% target share, and now that he's injured again, the norm for giant WRs, that leaves a big vacant hole. Slayton is actually the 7th most expensive WR, he also had 10 targets (25%) target share last week, and I think he can be played, but we can go much cheaper here and get some similar upside.... which would go to Golladay/JAmes. James was thrusted into the role post Robinson injury. Golladay has been slowly getting back to speed, and saw his snaps increase... both should be needed in this matchup. Cager is the cheapest starting TE on the slate. He had 3 more targets last week, with an aDOT/r of 8, solid for a TE.... he's also the taller than every WR on the team at 6'5, he played 74% of snaps, I don't hate it.
Zeke saw 29% snap count in his return, I know it was a blowout, but starters played until a couple minutes into the 4th, if you want to give him a 40% projection, that's fine, but I think that's his cap. Pollard however saw 54% of snaps, and was on pace for 72%~ if it was a full game. I think the tide has officially turned. I don't think Zeke is playing anymore until the price of each backs separate further (only $800 difference), He was also terrible in his touches, as he averaged just 2.8 YPC, and saw 1 target. Pollard was at 5.3 YPC, and 6 targets. It's hard to gauge last weeks usage at WR, but Lamb is obviously the alpha, the only fear is that he gets scripted out like last week, where he had just 5 tagets, but in a compeitive game, Dak + WRs could crush, and it isn't something you leave out. Noah Brown is still considerably cheaper than Gallup, not only is he the HR hitter on this offense, but the targets are similar in the 2, why not go cheaper? Schultz is priced as the TE2, I don't think he's a must have, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the TE1 by the end of thanksgiving. If it wasn't a blowout, I'm sure it would have been his 3rd straight game with alteast 7 targets, which is a solid floor.
NEP/MIN
Patriots have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Vikings have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mac has a bad ASR matchup. Stevenson? has a meh ALY push.
Cousins has a meh ASR matchup.
Pats TTR is 5th.
Vikes TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 3rd in TS, 7th overall. OURank is 3rd in TS.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, Couple Q's. On OL, C Andrews is doubtful. On O, WR Parker is Q.
- MIN - On D, CB Dantzler out for 3rd week, a couple of Q's (CB Booth was a non-participant).
- Harris was pretty efficient last week, but I think it's still Stevensons job. Harris had just a 24% snap count, and had 10 opportunities for 93 total yards, I would maybe take him in 1 or 2 tops. Stevenson on the otherhand played his highest snap count game in which both RBs were active. (78%), He had 21 opportunities, but the best part is his massive PPR floor due to his targets, in his last 4 games he's averaging 7 a game, that's solid, and Iobviously think he's viable. Meyers was the only WR over 60% of snaps in a competitive game, and he was at 95%, he's averaging over 7 targets a game, and has yet to finish under 9 PPR FPs, with a TD, I think he can easily achieve 20+ and is on my radar. If you really want to get different in a lineup, Agholor/Parker/Bourne/Thornton all played between 59% to 27% of snaps last week, and had 1 to 3 targets.... I think those numbers go up for all, as they aren't dealing with wind conditions of last week, and they're an underdog, but your guess is as good as mine, and AT BEST i'll one-off if I can't afford something. TE is interesting, Henry/Smith both see 50%+ of snaps (henry got to 84% last week), but even with more snaps, he had 1 target to jonnu's 4, they're more expensive than cager/wright, so idk if I'll go here, plus in this situation, you have to guess, in cager/wrights, you know he's your guy, but I don't think they're terrible plays.
I feel like Cook doesn't get talked about much, and he's now going against another tough matchup, but even last week, if he didn't get phased out, he was shredding it early in that game, and then they got away from him, before last week, he had 5 straight games of 5 targets too... if people are going barkley over him, I think this is a big way to get leverage... Vikes are the fave, and I think he'll be the lowest owned of the bigger dogs. Jefferson>Thielen>Osborn, although Theilen's price is starting to get ridiculously low, and if you want to say Belichik likes to get rid of your #1 option strategy, then you'd think it would open up even more opportunities for him, but either way... I think both can be played here, osborn maybe as a 1 lineup one-off. Hockenson now has 3 straight games of atleast 9 targets, which none of the other TEs can say... he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, and a lot of people usually punt the position, but prior to actually making lineups, I see some salary relief WRs/RBs that may be able to get you here.
TTR/OUR/Pace will be for the 3 game slate unless overall is mentioned.
Thursday Slate (TS)
BUF/DET
Bills have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Lions have a bad P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great ASR matchup.
Goff has a great ASR matchup.
Bills TTR is 1st (5 points over 2nd, and almost 10 points over the T-3rds)
Lions TTR is T-3rd.
Pace of play is 1st in the TS, and 2nd overall. OURank is 1st in the TS, by more than a TD.
- Injuries - BUF - On D, LB Edmunds/DE Rousseau are Q.
- DET - On D, CB Okudah is doubtful (ouch), couple of other Q's. On O, WR Chark/Reynolds are Q, and WR Williams is designated to return from IR (but shouldn't play this week).
- I'm not totally sure about salaries/roster construction, but I can promise you Brock Wright is one of the cheapest. Since Hockenson's departure, he has played 81/74/75% of snaps, While that's only translated into 4 targets, he's been looked at in the RZ, and what we're banking on here would be a TD. He could be a bring back/stack option to fit in, in a script that should favor passing. St. Brown has a massive 38% target share since Hock's departure, translating into 9 targets a game, he seems cheap at 6.6K in a script that should favor Goff's #1 target, Goff's projected to have time in the pocket too, which will only help, and keep in mind, 2 of those 3 games had neutral to negative passing scripts.... go St. Brown! In Chark's return, he only saw 16% of snaps, but they played with a lead throughout, and the run game was rumbling, I think he sees a decent uptick, and can be a lower owned pivot off of Raymond/Reynolds..., but I'd like to be different, and I think people will see 16% snaps, and stay away, remember weeks 1-3 before his injury, he was averaging 6 targets a game and a nice 11.1 aDOT. Speaking of Raymond, if reynolds and chark are back, I'm passing here, as he should definitely be the odd man out. Copy my chark comments for reynolds. The DET RB situation may make or break your lineup. I don't think Jamaal williams will succeed unless he has early success, in the last 3 games he has a total of ZERO targets, which I can't take on a PPR site. The lions are huge underdogs too. Since returning, yes, swift hasn't been used as much, I'd like to think he pushes past 31% snaps (jamaal led at 48% last week), in those 4 games upon returning he hasn't had fewer than 3 targets, they use him in the RZ where it counts... I think he can be considered. IFFFF you want, I think justin jackson can be played in a lineup, there are scenarios where the lions are blown out, where he'll be incredible value, but without it, he's received 8.5 touches past 2 weeks, average of 2 targets, and 52.5 yards.
Since returning from injury. Knox has seen over 80% snap count, and has never had fewer than 3 targets in a game, while seeing increasing usage the last 2 weeks. He's not much more expensive then Wright, but again, idk if salaries force us to punt here or not yet. Despite being frustrated, and seeing just 5 targets last week, Diggs still owns a 29% target share on one of the best passing offenses in the league. Play him if you can. Davis has seen his usage tick up as well since the bye week, he only has 1 TD in since the bye (4 games), But in those 4 games, he also has a really good 23.5% target share, and a really good aDOT/r of 13.3, a homerun hit is in his future, plus he's about 1/3rd cheaper than diggs..... Mckenzie is cheap enough to plug and play, but his usage has sucked, and he may now be the 5th best option on the team, maybe without okudah it opens it up for him? but idk. I never really care for singletary, but you can argue Allen may not vulture him as much until he's back to full health, and there are not many RBs at his salary that see over 70% of the field, and play for a top scoring offense. I still don't think I'll have much though as I prefer the passing options here, what also hurts him, is if the bills take a big lead, James Cook could takeover like last week... last week may even have given him more time to see the field in competitive games too, I think he could be played in a lineup.
NYG/DAL
Giants have a meh RB matchup, and bad P matchup.
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, and a good P matchup.
Jones has a bad ASR matchup. Barkley has a meh ALY push.
Dak has a great ASR matchup. Pollard? has a great ALY push.
Giants TTR is 6th (last).
Cowboys TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 2nd in the TS, 5th overall. OURank is 2nd in the TS.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, no CB Jackson (ouch) CBs Pinnock/Moreau are Q, Moreau didn't practice, S McKinney out for 3rd week, DE Williams out for 3rd week. On O, no TE Bellinger, no WR Robinson. On OL, a lot of Q's, and some lineup that we're ruled out mid game on sunday, something to keep an eye on.
- DAL - On D, a few Q's (notable Lawrence/Parsons/Barr). On O, RB Zeke is Q.
- I mean, do we really like the giants here? Nothing stands out... worst TTR, bad matchups at DVOA/Line/Pressure rate, I guess the pace? In the Giants 3 losses this season, Barkley is averaging 16.3 carries, 4.66 targets, 74.3 total yards. That's still a good floor, and he's obviously the focal point. But he could easily be shutdown just like last week and I wouldn't be surprised He's the most expensive back, and I don't think he needs to be jammed into lineups. Wandale had 13 targets last week, equaling a 33% target share, and now that he's injured again, the norm for giant WRs, that leaves a big vacant hole. Slayton is actually the 7th most expensive WR, he also had 10 targets (25%) target share last week, and I think he can be played, but we can go much cheaper here and get some similar upside.... which would go to Golladay/JAmes. James was thrusted into the role post Robinson injury. Golladay has been slowly getting back to speed, and saw his snaps increase... both should be needed in this matchup. Cager is the cheapest starting TE on the slate. He had 3 more targets last week, with an aDOT/r of 8, solid for a TE.... he's also the taller than every WR on the team at 6'5, he played 74% of snaps, I don't hate it.
Zeke saw 29% snap count in his return, I know it was a blowout, but starters played until a couple minutes into the 4th, if you want to give him a 40% projection, that's fine, but I think that's his cap. Pollard however saw 54% of snaps, and was on pace for 72%~ if it was a full game. I think the tide has officially turned. I don't think Zeke is playing anymore until the price of each backs separate further (only $800 difference), He was also terrible in his touches, as he averaged just 2.8 YPC, and saw 1 target. Pollard was at 5.3 YPC, and 6 targets. It's hard to gauge last weeks usage at WR, but Lamb is obviously the alpha, the only fear is that he gets scripted out like last week, where he had just 5 tagets, but in a compeitive game, Dak + WRs could crush, and it isn't something you leave out. Noah Brown is still considerably cheaper than Gallup, not only is he the HR hitter on this offense, but the targets are similar in the 2, why not go cheaper? Schultz is priced as the TE2, I don't think he's a must have, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the TE1 by the end of thanksgiving. If it wasn't a blowout, I'm sure it would have been his 3rd straight game with alteast 7 targets, which is a solid floor.
NEP/MIN
Patriots have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Vikings have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mac has a bad ASR matchup. Stevenson? has a meh ALY push.
Cousins has a meh ASR matchup.
Pats TTR is 5th.
Vikes TTR is 3rd.
Pace of play is 3rd in TS, 7th overall. OURank is 3rd in TS.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, Couple Q's. On OL, C Andrews is doubtful. On O, WR Parker is Q.
- MIN - On D, CB Dantzler out for 3rd week, a couple of Q's (CB Booth was a non-participant).
- Harris was pretty efficient last week, but I think it's still Stevensons job. Harris had just a 24% snap count, and had 10 opportunities for 93 total yards, I would maybe take him in 1 or 2 tops. Stevenson on the otherhand played his highest snap count game in which both RBs were active. (78%), He had 21 opportunities, but the best part is his massive PPR floor due to his targets, in his last 4 games he's averaging 7 a game, that's solid, and Iobviously think he's viable. Meyers was the only WR over 60% of snaps in a competitive game, and he was at 95%, he's averaging over 7 targets a game, and has yet to finish under 9 PPR FPs, with a TD, I think he can easily achieve 20+ and is on my radar. If you really want to get different in a lineup, Agholor/Parker/Bourne/Thornton all played between 59% to 27% of snaps last week, and had 1 to 3 targets.... I think those numbers go up for all, as they aren't dealing with wind conditions of last week, and they're an underdog, but your guess is as good as mine, and AT BEST i'll one-off if I can't afford something. TE is interesting, Henry/Smith both see 50%+ of snaps (henry got to 84% last week), but even with more snaps, he had 1 target to jonnu's 4, they're more expensive than cager/wright, so idk if I'll go here, plus in this situation, you have to guess, in cager/wrights, you know he's your guy, but I don't think they're terrible plays.
I feel like Cook doesn't get talked about much, and he's now going against another tough matchup, but even last week, if he didn't get phased out, he was shredding it early in that game, and then they got away from him, before last week, he had 5 straight games of 5 targets too... if people are going barkley over him, I think this is a big way to get leverage... Vikes are the fave, and I think he'll be the lowest owned of the bigger dogs. Jefferson>Thielen>Osborn, although Theilen's price is starting to get ridiculously low, and if you want to say Belichik likes to get rid of your #1 option strategy, then you'd think it would open up even more opportunities for him, but either way... I think both can be played here, osborn maybe as a 1 lineup one-off. Hockenson now has 3 straight games of atleast 9 targets, which none of the other TEs can say... he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate, and a lot of people usually punt the position, but prior to actually making lineups, I see some salary relief WRs/RBs that may be able to get you here.
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