Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
DAL@WAS
Cowboys have a great P/RB matchup.
Commanders have a great P/RB matchup.
Rush has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Daniels has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Br. Robinson~ has a great rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 18th (meh).
Commanders TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Dowdle has been the lead back, and while he's only been around 50% of snaps the last 2 games, he has hit 15 opps in each, and never less than 3 targets, he is not a bad 5.5K option, the pace of the game is great, and nobody will be playing him. I think he's a clever option. I just know tolbert is going to burn me when I don't play him, but the last 2 weeks haven't really paned out. He still is up there with Lamb for snaps, and this may be the last week to try him as a punt option with Cooks possibly returning, and maybe mingo seeing an increased role, idk if I do it. Lamb is a fine volume option, but a 27% target share with just a 6.8 aDOT doesn't scream pick me for someone who is so expensive. Everyone and the mother will be playing Schoonmaker at the floor price, and it may be somebody we just have to ride with and get different else where, 10 targets last week... he should be a lock to EASILY 3x+ his salary.
Unfortunately in his last 4 games since returning from his injury, Daniels to McLaurin hasn't been as great as prior. He only has a 16% target share, but with a big 15.3 aDOT, would it shock you to see that Noah Brown grades out better, and is much cheaper? He has had a 19.5% target share/12.6 aDOT. Ertz is a cheap option that you can play on PPR sites. Br. Robinson is off my list in a 50/50 snap share, and low ppr floor, but if WAS plays with a lead, I am sure that ticks higher and then 5.6K looks cheap, if you go with the DAL/Dowdle theme, maybe Ekeler makes sense as he had 9 targets last week, a WR in the 5K range getting 9 targets you would eat up. It all depends on your script.
KCC@CAR
Chiefs have a great P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a great pressure rate situation, and great pass potential. Hunt has a great rush potential.
Young has a bad pass potential. Hubbard~ has a meh rush potential.
Chiefs TTR is 4th (great).
Panthers TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Pace of play is 7th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Ugh, I guess they thought Hunt was going to be the backup this week, they shrunk his price by 1K, and is now in the 5K range in a cake matchup... this is a question on dodging ownership my gut is to be underowned, OR attack the passing options and hope that's how KC scores. The problem is which WR to we go with, or do we to a KElce lineup. In jujus first game back he took snaps from people but wasn't really utilized. Hopkins and Worthy had aDOTs over 12, and are priced similarly. I know with most people going schoonmaker, not many may be paying up at TE, so Kelce after a down game could be interesting. HAven't decided yet, but I will have some mahomes + WR/TEs to be different than the hunts/punt te options.
I can't imagine hubbard remaining at 80% of snaps if brooks is to get touches, if he is, 6.6K is cheap, but the circumstances point to you burn your money, I'll pass. At WR, the 3 games with Young, he had 3 WRs over a 10 aDOT --- which is unheard of from him if you look at his prior NFL career, he never threw it deep. Thielen does return, but I have interest in Coker. Legette has a quad injury, but if he misses (and especially theilen), Da. Moore is an interesting punt option.
MIN@CHI
Vikes have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Bears have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Swift has a bad rush potential.
Vikes TTR is 13th.
Bears TTR is T-15th (meh).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- Bad pace/total, and 2 teams where the offenses haven't been rocking recently. Jones seems like a decent value play, but I don't want to attack the pass catchers here. I'll also note Hockenson hasn't hit 50% of snaps yet since returning.
Swift coming in with an injury designation, and a tough matchup, passing unless trying to do a CHI D + Swift stack as a one-off lineup where multi-entering. The big 3 WRs made up over over 80% of Williams targets. Moore had a SHOCKING 0.8 aDOT... I don't like that. Odunze is interesting and the cheapest of the 3, for tourneys, don't shy away from allen, nobody is playing him. pass on Kmet.
TBB@NYG
Bucs have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Giants have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. White~ has a great rush potential.
DeVito has a meh pressure rate situation (grain of salt). Tracy has a good rush potential.
Bucs TTR is 8th (good).
Giants TTR is T-15th (meh).
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh)>
- If everyone keeps going bucky, I think white is still worthy, he is still a touch cheaper, plays more, and has the same ppr floor, and I don't have the stats at this moment, but I believe he has more redzone usage. With Evans back, I don't want to dart the WR2s and below. Otton will still be a focal point of this offense, and may still have an 8 to 10 target floor, a WR at 5.5K would be a smash if that's the case, plus he may be unowned with the value options, and his high price.
DeVito is min price at 4K.... is 12 points not easily doable? He will be popular, but that's another maybe set it and forget it. Him + Schoonmaker, and it feels like you can afford anything. Tracy is an interesting pivot, the coach said he will rely more on the run, he just hit 80% of snaps, and he is only 6K, in a great matchup. I like him.
DET@IND
Lions have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Gibbs/Montgom have a good rush potential..
Richardson has a bad pass potential. Taylor has a bad rush potential.
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Colts TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- I think this offense will be slightly overexposed after last weeks shalkacking. ASB to expensive for me, but I know I may feel like an idiot. I want to take LaPorta but I like other TE options more. Gibbs intrigues me the most, while I can't back Montgomery I know he has big TD equity, but if he doesn't he is an absolutely dud.
Pittman had a big time 28.5% target share/14.5 aDOT in his first game back with Richardson, and is still cheaper than Downs. I like him. I have to mention Taylor hit 90% of snaps and had 26 opps last week, he is a volume based option.
NEP@MIA
Pats have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Maye has a meh pass potential. Stevenson has a meh rush potential.
Pats TTR is 14th (meh).
Dolphins TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Maye showing a little bit of a rushing floor, and better at passing the ball (40 attempts last week too) he can be considered at 5.5K. The last 4 weeks Stevenson has averaged like 75% of snaps, and in 3 of the 4 games he has had 21+ opps and 3+ targets any RB in the 5K range works with that kind of volume/snaps. I don't want to give up on Boutte (kind of did in my home leagues) but in the last 3 weeks, he has had an 18% target share, but is the only player with a double digit aDOT (16.4 - big), and he almost plays 100% of snaps. I'll have a dot of him, but I hope I don't reget it.
Achane is viable on PPR sites, I can be talked off on .5 ones. I hate these WRs as they haven't been as concentrated since Tuas return, but Waddle in the 5K range obviously feels cheap. Hill can explose, but we haven't seen it, and I am not in love with paying 7K+ at the moment.
TEN@HOU
Titans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Texans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Levis has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential.
Stroud has a good pressure rate situation. Mixon has a meh rush potential.
Titans TTR is 19th (bad).
Texans TTR is T-5th (good).
Pace of play is 13th (bad/last). O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).
- Pollard use to be high 6K without Spears... he is back in the 5K range and should go from 55-60% of snaps all the way to 85%+, he is viable. Ridley continues his unreal metrics, having a 29% target share/20.1 aDOT in his last 2 games since Levis returned, the numbers don't lie but he is viable too imo --- he is in the 5K RANGE!.
Mixon is good for 25~ opps/4~ targets, that's awsome, but he is in a tougher than usual matchup, AND he is 8k... I have to pass. Last week was a semi blowout, so Collins only played 47% of snaps in his return... but still idk if I trust it just yet, they are decent faves, and he probably isn't going back to his 100% usage he once ways. I am fine with Dell as a one-off if multi entering.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (cont.)
DEN@LVR
Broncos have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Jav. Williams~ has a meh rush potential.
Minshew has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Abdullash? has a bad rush potential.
Broncos TTR is T-9th (good).
Raiders TTR is 17th (meh).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- Nix is viable. Can we trust Jav. Williams? I kind of think we can and they DROPPED his price even after last weeks performance. Sutton didn't score a TD last week, but he still had a 26% target share/9.7 aDOT, and on the year his numbers are just as good, no problem going there, the rest are dart/punt plays where mass entering.
Bowers had a 41% target share last week.... PPR sites, he will always be viable. I kind of like Abdullah at 4.3K, I can see 5+ targets, and maybe some RZ work, not sure on Laubes usage.
SFO@GBP
49ers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Packers have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation (grain of salt), and a good pass potential. CMC has a good rush potential.
Jacobs has a great rush potential.
49ers TTR is 11th.
Packers TTR is T-5th (good).
Pace of play is 12th (bad). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Allen is floor price at 4K and probably a good pivot off DeVito --- he still is surrounded by some of the best plays in the league. I am not going overboard on SFO players unless doing a sneaky game stack.
Jacobs + GBP D is an obvious stack. If you think Allen can keep somewhat of a pace, Love + pass catcher is interesting to me too but we don't know which WR to pick and there is opportunity to failure. Maybe a naked Love? Idk.
ARI@SEA
Cards have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Seahawks have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Conner has a great rush potential.
Geno has a great pass potential.
Cards TTR is T-9th (good).
Seahawks TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- This is a popular game, but everything is good about it. Benson seeing more involvement last 2 weeks has me off Conner. I don't trust any pass catcher not named Harrison. the last 4 weeks he has had a 23% target share, but a good 13.9 aDOT, no other WR is over an 8.3 aDOT, or even 15% target share. McBride is fine, but I like other TE options, I'd use him in game/team stacks only.
Walker can always be considered, bell cow with PPR safety. In Metcalfs return last week, he and JSN made up 64% of targets ---- thats the concentration we like and opens up bigger game stack potential. Sorry Lockett --- he does still play a lot, so if mass entering/attacking this game, have him in some, but I'll be off for now.
