Monday Night/Showdown Slate
DAL@LVR
Cowboys have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Raiders have a great P/RB matchup.
Dak has a great pass potential. Javonte has a good rush potential.
Geno has a meh pressure rate situation.
Pace of play is 6th.
- Since Lambs 3 game return, Javonte has avg'd 2.33 targets/g, down from 4.4 targets/g while he was injured, and that was with 2 of the games being in a pass heavy script. I have my concerns with him and I will lower my expectations, but I will note, in there one win, he had 23 opps (4 targets), so he definitely has upside, and is still the snap share/bell cow guy we like for fantasy purposes. Sticking with Lamb, the guy has a 30% target share/11.7 aDOT and can be considered for captain. We may actually be able to fit in both him and Pickens with some of the cheap options on the otherside, and I will build some like that, as Pickens as a simialr aDOT with a 24% target share --- there will be games where he outpaces Lamb, but either way, they both own a 55% of Daks targets in the L3 weeks. The only other WR option I'd consider, and this is strictly where mass entering, is Flournoy... and that's really because his snap share hit 67% last week where Tolbert/Tuprin didn't even get to 20%. Ferguson feels a bit expensive, as his aDOT is meh at 5, and his target share is just 15%, but it is worth noting he is averaging 2 RZ targets/g in these last 3, more than the big 2 (lamb/pickens) combined, so he has a path to success, and I would dart throw his TD prop if considering it too.
Nobody on this teams aDOT has been good in the past 2 weeks, but looking at just this sample size (return of Bowers, and then the departure of Meyers), Bowers does lead with a 25% target share, I will try to play him where I could, but I also have a lot of interest in Mayer again and it feels like the books haven't adjusted to it yet. Both of these guys are seeing the field a lot, a Mayer comes at half the price, with a 17.5% target share (2.5~ targets less per game), I'll take my chances. There is no reason to chanse on Thornton/Bech until something changes, Thornton played an ok amount, but he had a negative aDOT, and just isn't utilized, Lockett looked more like the PPR find --- I have no problem with Tucker, and Bowers (although I'll try to get to bowers in some), but I need the cheaper pieces here, because I want to play the DAL superstars, and really any of these guys cheap salaries on LVR could have a ceiling game higher than Tucker (possibly bowers). Lockett last week led in target share (24%), and on PPR formats, that is more than enough for 3.4K. Jeanty has had b2b games with his highest snap share on the season (91/87%), avg'ing 21 opps in that span, and 5 targets in each... he probably has the safest floors, with the potential of the highest ceiling, and could be considered a captain candidate.
I'll note, while I like Lamb/Jeanty, and we can always go QBs, this feels like a game where if you captain the right cheap raider, you may be able to fit the right stars and win that way.
