Thursday Night/Showdown Slate
NYJ@NEP
Jets have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Pats have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Fields has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Hall has a meh rush potential.
Maye has a great pass potential. Henderson? has a bad rush potential.
Pace of play is 13th (meh).
- Fields is the ultimate boom or bust, in 2 of his last 3 full starts he hasn't even hit 18 pass attempts, and capped at 8 total FPs. if you're playing him, you may want to throw down on a NEP onslaught because you are going to need them to set the pace like CIN did. This kind of tempers my expectation of the pass catching WRs too, especially without Wilson, but I will say they are extremely cheap so even if they get minimum volume. if you pick the right one, he should hit value, and if anything has a chance to pay off extremely well, I wouldn't take more than 1 at the most though. AD/Smith/Johnson. Taylor as a respectable 25% target share in his L2, and he is not priced much higher than those WRs we mentioned... it makes it hard to justify paying down when you at least get some safety/upside with Taylor at 4K. I'll mainly have him from the NYJ side if I want a combo with Fields. The only real guy that we want on this side is Hall, he is coming off b2b games with 21+ opps, and despite the lowest target average (kind of), it was 2 of his best FP performances of the season, and was close to his season high of 71% of snaps last week.
I am going with the assumption that both Stevenson and Boutte will be out, although we don't know for certain. I don't know if it'll keep me off Henderson either way, and if he is out, Henderson is kind of a must lock, he hit 84% of snaps, and avg'ing 118.5 total yards/g. Again, assuming Boutte is out, Douglas is a no go at his price, he just doesn't see the field much, idc about him this week. Diggs feels expensive, and I'll probbaly be underweight, but he did had a 28.5% target share, with a 10 aDOT, while those are fringe alpha numbers, why I am underweight isn't because he is priced with the QBs/RBs, but last week Hollins had a 35.7% target share with a 14.9 aDOT, those are actually alpha numbers, will he did it again? I am not sure, but vs this defense, and Maye throwing his deep ball, I know he will have shots, and if he leads in targets again, he is an absolute steal at 5.8K. Henry is fine too. priced cheap, decent aDOT, we know he has slate breaking upside. I don't know if I dart throw kyle williams, maybe if mass entering, and you want to take a shot --- I would be playing him over douglas if asked though.
