Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
HOU/CIN
Texans have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bengals have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Burrow has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Texans TTR is 11th.
Bengals TTR is T-1st (great).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Injuries - HOU - On D, DT Ridgeway (31%) is out --- HOU has a handful of Q's I'll include just those that haven't practiced yet. CB Nelson (98%)/LB Cashman (77%)/DE Anderson (68%)/S Ward (87%) --- they may be returning CB Stingley (100%~). On O, WRs Woods/Collins, RB Pierce, FB Beck are all Q.
- CIN - On D, DE Hubbard (78%) is Q. On O, WRs Chase/Higgins are Q.
I think a TON of people flock to this game for big game stacks because of last weeks results, so I'm hesitant... Also every HOU player has seen a price increase (minus the terrible run game). Another sign is the 2nd highest O/U will draw eyes, but the pace is almost on the other end. While I may make 1 or 2 game stacks, I will take a stand and be underweight the field for sure.
We just are never playing the HOU backfield, if Pierce is in, it's a terrible time share, but even when he was out, Singletary played 75% of snaps (which sounds great!), he had 15 opps (2 targets), which considering he is under 5K still is pretty dam good.. but those 15 touches went for 26 empty yards.... just don't do it. Collins is coming in with an injury designation, he is the only WR to start all 8 games for HOU, and is a WR1 who has just a 20% target share (despite the other target getters not playing a full allotment) --- you don't pay premium for this, pass. Weeks 1-6, when Woods played, he actually had a decent 21% target share/9.33 aDOT, unless you think Brown has earned a bit of a role now, those are good numbers for someone at 4K. Taking out weeks 1/5/6, where Dell either wasn't established yet, got hurt, or didn't play, he has actually led the team in target share, 22%, and has a massive 14.43 aDOT, that has been increasing the further the season has gone on... Him >> Woods >>>>>>>> everyone one else. Schultz price is ballooning, and while I don't disagree with that assessment, his most productive games have came when Jordon and/or quitoriano were not in the lineup... both are possibly returning, if so, I'd rather pay top TE dollars elsewhere.
Mixon has finally broke back into the low 6K range, and I'm sure he is trending upwards. This week he is playing for the team that has one of the top TTR's, he plays roughly 74%~ of snaps, which not many starting backs can say anymore, and he is coming of a 20 touch performance (6 targets), not only does he have a super safe floor, he offers you upside, and is a good pivot off of popular Burrow + Receiver stacks (or it can let you get different if you go QB+RB+WR). I'm in. Can Chase slate break? Yes, but the bengals are figured to be playing with a lead as home favorites, and he is expensiveeeee, I'll be either severely underweight/full fade minus a game stack or two tops. And to add to this, In the 4 weeks Higgins has been healthy, and actually played snaps like Chase does (weeks 1/2/3, and then last week), he grades out much better, and saves you 2k+ salary.... part of that grading out better is a much better aDOT at 12.05, compared to 9.1. I guess boyd is cheap at 4.6K, as he plays a ton of snaps, but his aDOT doesn't do it for me, and he is obviously the 4th option, at best. pass. While Cincy really used their TEs last week, they play 4, and NONE had a snap share over 37%.... they are all practically floor priced, but that needs to settle before I consider it.
NOS/MIN
Saints have a meh P/RB matchup.
Vikings have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Carr has a great pressure rate matchup, but a meh pass potential.
Dobbs has a great pressure rate matchup. Mattison has a bad run potential.
Saints TTR is T-7th
Vikings TTR is 16th (meh).
Pace of play is T-2nd (good), O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- Injuries - NOS - On O, RB Miller is Q.
- MIN - On O, RB Akers is out. TEs Hockenson/Mundt are Q. WRs Osborn is Q, and JJ may return.
I mentioned my concern with Kamara last week, and he dudded a ton of lineups with his price/FPs, I had a concern with a drop off in his prior weeks snap share, and that dropped even lower to a season low 49% --- this was in a game where there was a neutral script throughout too, so it's not like it was a blowout. Unless the saints are playing from behind (which vegas doesn't think), I want absolutely no kamara at his price (which has gone up from last week!!!), and even from behind, you're paying a pretty penny for a guy who probably won't get RZ TDs anymore. Jamaal did play a return from injury high of 43% of snaps, but he had just 6 opps (3 targets), he is cheap, and maybe in a tourney you can get lucky with 2 TDs, but not something I want to invest in here. On the season Olave has a really good 26% target share, and a really good aDOT of 13.11 --- and going back to my blurb about Collins above, Olave is a smidge cheaper and has these much better numbers). Either way, he should be on your player pool. On the season, it looks like Thomas' numbers are not bad for his price, but if you look at the last 4~ weeks, Shaheed kind of matches him in target share, and doubles his aDOT, I don't love either of them, and I think Thomas is due, but I'll wait for something to change first... I probably won't have either unless game stacking, but if I had too, I actually prefer Shaheed. Johnsons snaps have ramped up since his return, hitting 75% last week, he actually has 3 RZ targets in 2 games as well, while his other metrics are meh, 11% target sahre/5.86 aDOT, and I don't know the TE punt options just yet, I'll keep him as a tournament punt option for now (keep an eye for possible ones on other write ups.). WTF do we do with Taysom Hill? He is now the 4th priced TE, and is coming off b2b 20+ point performances. he is still playing under 50% of snaps, and he would have been single digit if not for b2b 2+ TD games, I'm torn here, my gut says to fade, as I prefer to pay top dollar or punt the position --- but maybe he is top dollar material? Not sure yet.
If Mattison goes back to his Weeks 1/2/3 usage where he played 75%+ of snaps, averaging 13~ carries/g, and almost 6 targets a game, idc the matchup, at 5.5K, that is a great floor/ceiling combo. 5 catches and 50 total yards, no TD, and he is SAFELY 2x'ing his salary for you. He will be in my pool. We have to take a wait and see approach with JJ in town, if he's back, I have no interest in Addison. I want to make note, Last week, with mostly Dobbs, Hockenson had a HUGE 34% target share, with an ok aDOT of 6.33... yet his price went DOWN to the lowest of the season... I am so on board with this, and seeing my prior HOU comments, I would 100% go here over Schultz.
GBP/PIT
Packers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Steelers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Love has a meh pass potential. A. Jones has a meh run potential.
Packers TTR is 18th (meh).
Steelers TTR is T-12th.
Pace of play is 4th (good), O/U Rank is T-8th (bad).
- Injuries - GBP - On D, 3rd week w/o S Savage (83%). LB Walker (85%) is Q to return from a 1 game hiatus, CB Alexander (95%) is Q, On O, T Nijman is Q.
- PIT - On D, DT Adams (57%)/S Firzpatrick (79%) are Q. LB Holcomb (77%) is out.
In general, I feel like most people look at these teams and think slow starters/better defenses/etc --- and the total is indicative of that, but I may actually, at a minimum, mini game-stack this, as I like the pace, and as I dive into the numbers, I'll be willing to bet there is some value shiners here.
Barring an injury to Jones, we can all agree that Dillon is done, as he played a season low 40% of snaps, and had 10 opps (1 target) --- Jones on the otherhand, has now ramped up his snaps in 3 straight, hitting 57% last week, and with just 57% of snaps, he had 26 total opps (6 targets), yet somehow he is priced as the RB11 on this slate --- yes please. With Watson back to full health, Reed really can't be trusted UNLESS you believe GBP play in a 2+ possession deficit, as otherwise, he struggles to even get to 50% of snaps. In his 4 game healthy stretch, Watson has a slightly better target share than Doubs 17.5% to 16.67%, but he has a MASSIVE aDOT of 18.45, to Doubs 10.57, AND he is cheaper... I'm going Watson 9/10 times, and will play Doubs solely in a bigger game stack if wanting to go there. I know Musgrave is coming off a good game, but in the games with the healthy receiving corp, he has a 15% target share, with a pretty bad aDOT of 3.68, and his price has jumped, I'll probably fade this.
I don't know what to do with this backfield. Najee tied his season high in snaps at 58%, and had a really good 20 opp (4 target) game at 4.9K, you take that all day. On the other hand, Warren looked really good, but played his lowest snaps of the season, yet still had 14 opps (3 target) game.... The fact that he is priced $100 higher than Najee is slightly disrespectful, and man do I wish one of these guys were hurt to take advantage. I want to play one from here, and I obviously lean Najee, but for tourneys, you can make the case for either. In the 3 games of Diontaes return, he has a massive 31.5% target share, and a good aDOT of 11.1 --- those are better/or like the Adams/Allens/Pittmans/Wilsons of the world, yet he is just 5.4K.... that's worthy of playing. I don't think Pickens should be ignored, as he has a 20% target share, and a 13.39 aDOT, I'll obviously lean towards diontae more, but I will have both. Pass at TE.
TEN/TBB
Titans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Levis has a good pressure rate matchup.
Baker has a great pressure rate matchup, and a great pass potential. R. White has a bad run potential.
Titans TTR is 17th (meh).
Bucs TTR is 15th (meh).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-8th (bad).
- Injuries - TEN - On D, LB Al-Shaair (98%)/CB Murphy-Bunting (87%) are Q. On O, WR Burks is Q.
- TBB - On D, CB Davis (100%) is Q. On O, WR Palmer is Q.
I had this fear week 6 prior to titans bye, then week 8, it was put to bed... but last week it came back. Henry played 49% of snaps (less than Spears) --- now he still had 21 opps (4 targets), but to pay this price, when all the guys around him see way more playing time, and some even in better matchups, I think I have to pass. Spears had 11 opps (6 targets), and if they find themselves playing from behind, I think he can be used as a sneaky option in a lineup if mass entering/game stacking at 4.5K. I think we all just saw what Stroud did to this defense.. now I'm not saying Levis can't repeat that, but at a minimum, one-offs here can pay off. In his 2 games with Levis, Hopkins has a really good target share of 26.5%, and a massive aDOT of 16.72, at 6K, he will be popular, but for good reason. It feels weird to jump over Ikhine, as he is almost floor priced, and the WR2 on this team with no Burks... but I want to play Philips (maybe Moore~) in this situation, as he seems to have a rapport with Levis, and had a 12.5% target share on just 28% of snaps --- his/Moores numbers should see increase with no Burks. I think Chig is a fine punt option, he has a 15.5% target share, and a good TE aDOT of 7.3, while playing 70%+ of snaps.
R. White is coming off an 80% snap count, 24 opp (4 target) performance. Since the bye (4 games) he has yet to have less than 4 targets, he sees a ton of RZ work, and barely saw his price move after a 28 point performance. I know the matchup doesn't look great against the run, but none this year have and he still stays consistent... I like him still. They are just aren't doing Godwin any favors with pricing. He is to closely priced to Evans for me to consider him. Evans has a 24% target share to Godwins 21.5%, but has a massive aDOT advantage of 13.58 to 8.73, Evans > Godwin --- you can always make a case in a tourney to be different, and I won't fault you, but I'll stick with more Evans. I feel like I have been shouting this for awhile now, but Otton plays a ton of snaps, runs a route on 79% of dropbacks (4th highest among TEs), and has an ok aDOT of 6.71 --- The possible absence of Palmers 10% target share raises these 3 guys projections slightly higher too.
SFO/JAC
49ers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Purdy has a great pressure rate matchup, and a good pass potential. CMC has a good run potential.
49ers TTR is 5th (good).
Jags TTR is T-7th.
Pace of play is 14th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Injuries - SFO - On D, CBs Womack/Luter, and DE Beal are all designated to return.
- JAC - On O, WR Jones is Q.
The pace here is very bad despite the O/U being good --- that always gives me a little bell to possible fade/at least be a bit underweight the field. To add, SFO D is looking as if it is as healthy has it's ever been in some time --- which kind of gives that RB DVOA a bit of an unfair skew.
CMC plays every snap, he has scored at least 1 TD in every game, hitting multiple TDs in 3 of 8 weeks, he has finished as a top 5 RB in 5 of 8 weeks... He is expensive.. I said I want to be underweight the field in this game, but if you want him, have him. In the 4 Deebo/Aiyuk have played together, Aiyuk has had elite metrics with a 29% target share, and 15.67 aDOT, that's arguably weekly #1 WR numbers/potential. If you want to take a shot in a few lineups, I get it. In those games, Kittle has seen his numbers fall a bit, in both target share and aDOT (20.5% to 15%, and 8.91 aDOT to 6.93), I can't play him at his price, pass.
Look, Etienne is trying to do his best CMC impression. His last 2 he was just shy of 90% of snaps, he has yet to have under 3 targets in a game, averaging almost 5/g in the last 4, he has 4 straight games with a TD, 3 were multi TD games. Do I think he can do well? Yes... do I see a more likely scenario he fails to 3X+ is salary? Yes, and for that reason, I think I'm going to, maybe regretfully, fade. With the return of Z. Jones, we really only have 2 weeks of data, and that was weeks 1 and 2... I don't want to entirely go off of that, but I'll note that he led the team in aDOT but worst target share, and Kirk's was really low at 5.71.... it was Ridley who had the best numbers, 26%/9.11, slowly seeing his aDOT rise as the season has gone on, and he is actually cheaper than Kirk now too... He may be the only piece I'll possibly have. While I love Engrams 22.5% target share on the season, I hate his 4 aDOT, he is always an option though on PPR formats, so I get it, but I'm personally passing.
CLV/BAL
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a bad P/RB matchup.
Watson has a meh pressure rate matchup, and a bad pass potential. Ford? has a bad run potential.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate matchup, and a meh pass potential. Gus Bus has a good run potential.
Browns TTR is 19th (bad).
Ravens TTR is T-7th.
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 10th (bad/last).
- Injuries - CLV - On D, CB Mitchell (45%~) is out. On O, WRs Bell/Goodwin are Q. T Wills is out.
- BAL - They fine.
While the Browns won 27-0, Ford may have put the Hunt split time to rest with his 27 opp (7 target) performance --- which the targets is super nice considering that score line --- at 5.3K he actually seems a little to cheap. With Watson, Cooper has a 23.5 target share, and a big 17 aDOT, his price barely moved after a 28 point performance. Moore's aDOT isn't the greatest, but he doesn't deserve to be 3.6K, I have no issues going here as a cheap one-off in some lineups. This is going to sound weird, but vs this defense, nobody is going to be playing CLV, and Watson is super cheap, has a really high aDOT of 9.14, and in 3 of his 4 starts, they've won in blowouts, and he still averaged 20 FPs in them....I know there is risk, but if this is a competitive or higher scoring than projected, I can see him being a huge leverage tourney play/stack. Njoku's aDOT with Watson is 1.53..... PASS.
Look.. it was a blowout --- again, but Gus Bus only had an 18% snap count, and 5 carries for 2 TDs... that's gross, and I will, at least for another week, hold my ground on "I'm not taking a BAL RB ever". I'm trying to get comments down on all games, and while the matchup is tough, and the WR core on this team is looking more and more like a carousel... in competitive games, I still think Flowers is the guy, but the ancillary pieces are all close or at floor price... I can see one doing well, but not playing a guessing game. I will never ever write of Andrews --- in the blowout he played just 58% of snaps, but still landed on 10 targets, and he gets a lot of RZ work/looks.. he is expensive, but nobody at the position has his upside --- and he may be very low owned.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
ATL/ARI
Falcons have a great P/RB matchup.
Cards have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Heinicke has a good pressure rate matchup, and a good pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a great run potential.
Conner? has a bad run potential.
Falcons TTR is 10th.
Cards TTR is T-12th.
Pace of play is T-2nd (good). O/U Rank is 5th (meh).
- Injuries - ATL - On D, 3rd week w/o DE Jarrett (70%+), 2nd week w/o DE London (43%~). On O, WR Hollins is Q.
- ARI - On O, RB Conner may return/RB Demercado is Q.
Going into the week, I had no interest in these game, besides maybe ATL D... but Kyler/Conner may change that.
I feel like I keep burning a portion of my lineups as I keep going back to Bijan... I'm not giving up just yet, as this is his best matchup on paper since like Week 2 --- and in 2 games with Heinicke he's averaging 4.5 targets. At 6K, I think he is playable --- yet again. If you want to take a shot on Allgeier in 1 lineup where mass entering, I get it, as it wouldn't shock me to see 2+ TDs, and maybe he gets to 100 yards with a ripper, but again, it's not like he is priced far from Bijan, so I'd personally just pay up. We haven't had a full game with London + Heinicke yet, but Week 8 he did have a 21% target share/9.43 aDOT, we've seen him support McLaurin, and I wouldn't be shocked here either. If no Hollins, Hodge becomes a play (sorry van jefferson). I know Joonu had a huge game, but his aDOT is 2.14 with Heinicke, compared to Pitts massive 11.4 aDOT, and Pitts Target share also leads at 15% compared to 10%... if game/team stacking, give me Pitts.
If they tell me Kyler/Conner are at full strength, I think this offense can produce. Now I'll be patient on Conner, despite the workhorse ability, as the matchup is tough, and I think they could play from behind, but Hollywood/Wilson/McBride become interesting value plays.
DET/LAC
Lions have a good P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate matchup, and a great pass potential. Montgomery? has a great run potential.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate matchup. Ekeler has a meh run potential.
Lions TTR is 4th (good).
Chargers TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Injuries - DET - They fine.
- LAC - On D, LB Bosa (53%) is Q. On O, WR Palmer/Williams obvi still out.
This is definitely one of those games, like DAL/PHI last week, where you may want a piece of something, or a mini game stack (like WR or RB + opposing WR).
I think I want some Montgomery, prior to his injury he was a workhorse that played a lot... but I understand Gibbs role could be expanded, so I won't go overboard, but I think this could lower his ownership and in a game with the highest o/u, I want some leverage. Gibbs being more expensive than Montgomery is probably a product of the last few weeks, so I'll pass on him. St. Brown is a monster --- even in the 3 games with Jam Williams/Reynolds being the WR3/2, he has a monster target share of 35%... his floor is huge, and he is the top option on the top game. Reynolds seems to cheap for his 90% snap share, and while Williams actually has a higher target share, I think I rather Reynolds at their price, but for tourneys, you can make either argument. Laporta is going to be very popular, but rightfully so... In his L3 he has a 22.5% target share and a good TE aDOT of 7.18, and the matchup is good.... I found myself not clicking LaPortas name on the lineups I've already built as I've gone up to Andrews or down to Hockenson, but I wouldn't be shocked if that's a mistake I'm making.
Ekeler is getting 2/3rds of snaps, in his 4 games since returning, he has hit atleast 6 targets in 3... I'm leaning to fading because his price tag is huge, and even in his 2 TD performance last week, he didn't even 2.5X his salary, but I'd use him in game stacks if going here. In the first game without Palmer, Allen had a 32% target share, while his aDOT was low at 7.44, those are St. Brown-esque, if he can find the endzone, he could easily go for 24+. I hope Johnston goes overlooked. He is 4.1K, and coming of an 80%+ snap rate without Palmer. while he didn't do well, he had a 16.67 aDOT, and I'm sure his targets will go up when they are in a competitive/neutral to positive pass script, which they are likely to be in on Sunday. Pass at TE.
NYG/DAL
Giants have a bad P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Giants QB? has the worst pressure rate matchup, and a bad pass potential. Barkley has a bad run potential.
Dak has a great pressure rate matchup, and a good pass potential. Pollard has a good run potential.
Giants TTR is 20th (bad --- I think lowest of any team all year).
Cowboys TTR is T-1st (great).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th (bad).
- Injuries - NYG - On D, CB Jackson (90%+) is Q. LB Ojulari may be returning. On O, No TE Waller, QBs Jones/Taylor.
- DAL - On O, T Smith is Q.
Another DAL game, another likely blowout script. Will I have a Pollard? Probably a share or two --- can you say the same about Lamb? Yeah probably... it is unfortunate, because look what he did last week in a competitive game. You're going to need them to be the 1st/2nd TD scores, so I just find it hard to trust/pay top dollar for a team that may not need to use them come the 2nd half --- you can also add to the argument that the one thing the Giants at least have seen a big improvement in is the defense, but I don't see how they don't have tough field positions to keep DAL off the board...
Maybe Barkley gets 30+ touches again with 8~+ targets and he goes unowned and smashes, but I'm not taking the chance. Hyatt/Slayton look good in terms of last weeks metrics and how cheap they are this week if you want to punt/take a flier. The same could be said for bellinger, has he almost played 90% of snaps and had a good 8 aDOT. I wouldn't go crazy, but again if you need a one-off spot to save salary, I get it. They should need to pass,
WAS/SEA
Commanders have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Howell has a bad pressure rate matchup, and a meh pass potential. Br. Robinson have a great run potential.
Geno has a meh pressure rate matchup, but a great pass potential.
Commanders TTR is 14th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 3rd (good).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is 4th.
- Injuries - WAS - On D, LB Barton (100%) is out for3rd week. On O, T Charles is out for 3rd week.
- SEA - On D, LB Nwosu (75%) is out for 3rd week, and LB Brooks (78%) is Q. On O, WR Metcalf is Q.
If you think Br. Robinson gets a TD, and/or WAS plays with a lead, he can be considered...otherwise hard pass. Dotson is the WR that saw the boost with Samuel missing, and he is now returning... the only WR I like because of close pricing, is McLaurin, as he has the best aDOT among the group, as well as target share. Thomas feels a bit to expensive for his low target share, but even if it's lower than other TEs, it's coming from a team with a high passing volume, which is why he can always be considered... despite me saying that, I probably won't have any.
Despite liking the project script, this is now 2 weeks in a row Walker was out snapped by Charbonnet, and is averaging just 10.5 opps.... I can't pay 6.8K with that uncertainty. I know one of the weeks was a blowout, but show me first. Maybe if mass entering I take a shot on a 4.2K Charbs if he really will have an increased role, but not sure I do it. I will not be on JSN unless Metaclf is out. Metcalf/Locketts prices aren't gapped enough for me to like lockett... On the season games in which they've played together Metcalf has a better target share and aDOT --- 24.1% to 22.56%, and 12.68 to 10.52 --- now if mass entering and targeting this game, I wouldn't leave lockett out of all lineups. While they have good TE aDOTs, they play 3... pass.
