DFS/Props Week 1 2024 Discussion

ScopeY

ScopeY

Pretty much a regular
For those that don't remember, I'll try to get down general matchup information from a dfs/prop perspective as best as I can, but please jump in whether it is to add input, correct a mistake of mine, or if something is unclear. I'm sure all 3 are going to happen.

When reading the summaries I'll typically use great, good, meh, bad, those 4 terms are sectioned between ranked 32nd-25th, 24th-17th, 16th-9th, 8th-1st. Ie. Ekeler has a great RB matchup, because the opposing defense is ranked somewhere between 25th-32nd in DVOA vs the run (something like that).

Edit: I do sort pressure rate over expectation (PrROE), as well as pass/run potential spots in top 1-5,6-10, and 23-27, 28-32, so you may see me say Great/Good, and Meh/Bad, 11-22 are not stated. My ranges (which may adjust) for Great/Good/Ignore/Meh/Bad TT's and O/U's will be this.
>24.5 >50
>23 >46.5
20-23 43-46.
<20 <43
<17 <40

Practically copy and pasted from last year ---- I'll note to take some things with a grain of salt for the first few weeks (typically post week 4 it tends to get better as it will include more and more of this years stats of course...) Also with it being last year, coaching changes are big, so some of this stuff could really be irrelevant (like pace of play specifically)


I'll try my best to get some information down, but not around this weekend, and not going fully in depth, but obviously open to discussion and wouldn't mind information/advice from others!
 
Thursday Night

BAL/KCC

Ravens have a great RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Lamar has a bad pressure rate matchup. Henry has a great run potential.
Mahomes has a meh pass potential.
Pace of play is 14th overall (meh for the week).
 
Friday Night

GBP/PHI

Packers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jacobs has a good/great run potential.
Hurts has a meh pressure rate situation, but a great pass potential. Barkley has a great run potential.
Pace of play is 12th overall (meh for the week).
 
Sunday Slate

1 PMs

NEP@CIN

Patriots have a great RB matchup, and a good P matchup.
Bengals have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Brissett has a meh pass potential.
Moss has a bad run potential.
Pats TTR is 24th (last/bad)
Bengals TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 13th (meh), O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).

- Stevenson receptions look juicy with check down brissett, but I like him in all purposes, and like pats with the points. Fine with Chase if he plays, Iwin/Iosivas are floor priced punt plays.

ARI@BUF

Cards have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bills have a great P/RB matchup.
Kyler has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Conner has a good run potential.
Allen has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential (#1). Cook has a great run potential (#1 on main slate).
Cards TTR is 16th.
Bills TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 9th. O/U Rank is 3rd (good).

- Have a ton of Allen/Cook/Kincaid, with Samuel>Shakir>>>>>>>Coleman --- in that order. I think Buffalo is the safest bet of the day and don't see them not scoring a ton. With Harrison drawing most eyes, I played me some Mi. Wilson at a cheaper price as a pivot, obviously have some mcbride to.

HOU@IND

Texans have a good P/RB matchup.
Colts have a good P matchup, bad RB matchuo.
Stroud has a good pass potential.
Taylor has a meh run potential.
Texans TTR is 3rd (good).
Colts TTR is T-9th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 2nd (good).

- There's an argument to be made in tournaments to take a stab at a HOU WR or 2, because most don't know the expectation, and will go lower owned that they probably should... I mostly avoided it though (d'oh). I do have me some pittman here though.

JAC@MIA

Jags have a good P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Dolphins have a meh P/RB matchup.
Lawrence has a meh pressure rate situation.
Tua has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Mostert/Achane have a great run potential.
Jags TTR is T-7th.
Dolphins TTR is 2nd (great).
Pace of play is 11th. O/U Rank is 1st (good).

- Have a bunch of Hill/Waddle, with mostly Engram coming back.

MIN@NYG

Vikings have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Giants have a meh P/RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation.
Jones has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Singletary has a bad run potential.
Vikes TTR is 14th.
Giants TTR is 17th (meh).
Pace of play is 5th (good). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).

- Could be an ugly game, prefer singletary at his price over other options at this game, overall underweight.

TEN@CHI

Titans have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bears have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Levis has a good pressure rate situation.
Titans TTR is 15th.
Bears TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 16th (bad/last). O/U Rank is 4th

- this is my sleeper shootout of the week and love the over. The 16th pace of play is totally misleading, the titans no longer have vrabel, and brought in bengals playcaller, who were top 5 in cincy for pass play % in each of the last 2 years. And obviously the Bears are a completely different offense than last year. I have some Levis/Williams, and a lot of ridley (if hopkins is out) otherwise I'm spread between the 2. Mostly Moore with a sprinkle of Odunze/Allen, and a dot of swift/pollard.

PIT@ATL

Steelers have a great P matchup, and a meh RB matchup.
Falcons have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Wilson has a good pressure rate situation.
Cousins has a meh pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a bad run potential.
Steelers TTR is T20th (meh).
Falcons TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 4th (good). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).

- Fields is super cheap, and we know he has high ceiling potential, I like pickens props as the only option there. London/Pitts should obviously see a big boost with Cousins so play it as you see it.

CAR@NOS

Panthers have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Young has a bad pass potential. Hubbard has a meh run potential.
Carr has a great pressure rate situation. Kamara has a great run potential.
Panthers TTR is T20th (meh).
Saints TTR is T9th.
Pace of play is 10th. O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).

- Lets see what canales can do with Young... I think Diontae ,like pickens, seems to be the only true option (we'll see about legette though), and do like him for receptions/props. People are so low on kamara (fantasy drafts included) and I don't get it... he was #3 in PPG PPR setting last year, I'll wait for him to fail me before I believe it.

4 PMs

DEN@SEA

Broncos have a great P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a great P/RB matchup.
Nix has a good pass potential. Jav. Williams has a good run potential.
Geno has a great pass potential.
Broncos TTR is 23th (meh).
Seahawks TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-6th (meh).

- Javonte getting no love, and seeing Jaleel as a punt play places, i dont get it... he has shown flashes, but until javonte is hurt, I don't believe it. Give me Javonte in Paytons offense with a rookie, and year 2 from his A/MCL recovery.

LVR@LAC

Raiders have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Chargers have a good RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Minshew has a good pressure rate situation.
Herbert has a meh pass potential. Gus/Dobbins have a bad rush potential.
Raiders TTR is 22nd (meh).
Chargers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 1st (good), O/U Rank is 12th (meh).

- Adams showed he could do it with nobodies last year, I'll gladly fire him up in PPR formats. I do think LAC D can be a nice bringback with the 2. Only other guy I don't mind is Bowers, and obviously a cheap WR1 in LAC (McConkey or Palmer).

DAL@CLV

Cowboys have a bad P/RB matchup.
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dak has a meh pressure rate situation.
Watson has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Ford has a bad rush potential.
Cowboys TTR is 19th (meh).
Browns TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 3rd (good). O/U Rank is T-8th (meh).

- I can see the community fading this game, which makes me want to go into it, but I really didn't... I have a dot or 2 of lamb, and some ford.... I don't want to guess with dowdle/zeke in a bad matchup.

WAS@TBB

Commanders have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P matchup, and a good RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Br. Robinson has a meh run potential.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Commanders TTR is 18th (meh).
Bucs TTR is T-7th.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 5th (meh).

- McLaurin I like vs pass funnel and no other real options (hello mccaffrey), godwin is vastly cheaper than evans and would prefer that. Fine with R. White until it's shown he doesn't have an 80%+ snap count.
 
Last edited:
Love this thread, good to see ya and thanks for doing this buddy. I’ll try to contribute more going forward I just havnt had the time to even start caring bout nfl, all I can do to get my mlb bets in some days! Thst said some 2 second capping I kinda like these:

AR15 over 50 rush
Daniels ov 40 rush
Tua ov 1.5 td passes
Stroud ov 250 and 1.5 td
Baker ov 225 passing

No clue if those any good but that what I got, lol
 
I do have 1 semi probtip.. I despise nfl but there is one thing that ya gotta just love!! Remember kids sacks don’t count against a qb rush yards like they do in college!! You think these kids coming in gonna run less?? If anything early on I say they run every bit as much if not more.. just a thought
 
Holy fuck, they don’t think Levis gonna run at all? 25 yards is +800! I took that and over 11.5 plus something, I think the dude sucks but he not gonna run at all? If not he will throw 4 ints!
 
Gotta think Tyreke goes ham, don’t let him lie he a thug, I’m not judging whether that bad or good, some say I’m at least 25% thug myself, I dunno if they right or care but I know I’d show out in this game then run my mouth bout police after!
 
I don’t like much in way or props tonight. I don’t have a very good feel for this game. I think Shanny will script an early score so like niners 1st qrtr -.5. Only prop I see that makes lot of sense to me is Hall rec yards, I can’t imagine Rodgers is gonna want to get hit, best way to avoid that get the ball out fast into your playmakers hands in space. Not sure he have time to be looking down field a whole lot, really not sure wtf jets offense gonna look like but feel like hall getting some catches and making a few big plays out of them gotta be part of it.

Hall ov 28.5 rec yards
 
2daBank said:
I don’t like much in way or props tonight. I don’t have a very good feel for this game. I think Shanny will script an early score so like niners 1st qrtr -.5. Only prop I see that makes lot of sense to me is Hall rec yards, I can’t imagine Rodgers is gonna want to get hit, best way to avoid that get the ball out fast into your playmakers hands in space. Not sure he have time to be looking down field a whole lot, really not sure wtf jets offense gonna look like but feel like hall getting some catches and making a few big plays out of them gotta be part of it.

Hall ov 28.5 rec yards
Click to expand...
Nice, played this a bit ago at a higher yardage.

Breece will be a horse this year -- and have a huge year.

Jets OL will be somewhat better.

SF defense could start slow.

The easy thing to do is his rushing yards over -- my feet there is an early deficit and finishing with 13-14 carries.

Hence, receiving yards.

The 4.5 total on catches makes me confident he gets 35-50 receiving.

GL Dano.
 
2daBank said:
Gotta think Tyreke goes ham, don’t let him lie he a thug, I’m not judging whether that bad or good, some say I’m at least 25% thug myself, I dunno if they right or care but I know I’d show out in this game then run my mouth bout police after!
Click to expand...
This is exactly why I played his prop yesterday.
 
Oh and they gave me a “risk free” bet for player to score a td. It was a $20 limit so the only thing that made sense was to play 1st td of game, obviously I think niners get the 1st score, it woulda been easy to just take McCaffery but prob didn’t pay enough so i played

debo 1st td +800 (just cause the risk free nothing else!
B.A.R. said:
Nice, played this a bit ago at a higher yardage.

Breece will be a horse this year -- and have a huge year.

Jets OL will be somewhat better.

SF defense could start slow.

The easy thing to do is his rushing yards over -- my feet there is an early deficit and finishing with 13-14 carries.

Hence, receiving yards.

The 4.5 total on catches makes me confident he gets 35-50 receiving.

GL Dano.
Click to expand...

Yea against lot of teams id have prob went rush+rec but dont see him having lot of room to run inside. Really gotta think Rodgers rusty, the online should be improved but I think it be human nature for him to wanna get the ball out fast as possible till he starts gaining trust in them. Hall could spring one for 50 so I have no prob with alt numbers, just felt like it take something very odd for him not to get at least 30.. gl bro
 
I thought pretty hard bout Purdy ov 8.5 rush yards, looking back to last year tho it was pretty much a crapshoot. He did scramble quite a bit week 1 last year I believe. You would think jets d applies some pressure, he only needs one damn lane to open up and he cashes this! For now I passed but the day still young! Lol
 
Thanks for all the comments guys, lets only get better.

NYJ@SFO

Jets have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
Rodgers has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
CMC has a good run potential.
Pace of play is 15th (meh).

Like Kittle the most on SFO side, Deebo>Aiyuk for once. For DFS purposes, Ronnie Bell at min price seems like a good punt option if mass entering.
Idk what to make of the WR2/3, Lazard beating Mike Williams wouldn't surprise me for some reason, but I'm all for Wilson/Hall only too. Conklin seems way to cheap as well but most I think go here, where Lazard could be a pivot option at the similar price point. Again for deeper tourneys only. Gl all
 
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