ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Sunday 2 Game Slate
KCC/BAL
Chiefs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation (3rd of 4), and a bad pass potential (4th of 4). Pacheco has a bad run potential (4th of 4).
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation (4th of 4), but a good pass potential (2nd of 4). Gus Bus? has a great run potential (1st of 4).
Chiefs TTR is 4th.
Ravens TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is 1st (meh), and O/U is 2nd (by about a TD).
- Injuries - KCC - On D, DT Nnadi (46%) is out. LB/S Yag (62%)/Edwards(57%) are Q. On O, still no WR/WR/RB Moore/Toney/McKinnon, RB Pacheco is Q. G Thuney is out.
- BAL - Healthy
I just can't trust Pacheco, I know he continued to play last week, but he definitely showed being hampered/pain moments after the injury occured... for tourneys (not cash games) I think getting cute with Helaire could be clever in some lineups where mass entering -- he allows you to afford the big boys too, as he is just 4.5K (and a direct pivot off 4.8K/more popular Hill). I mean pick your poison at WR outside of Rice... Rice in his 2 playoff games has a big 29% target share, but with just a 4.56 aDOT... I think he is super safe play, with upside, so I won't leave him off my pool, but I won't go overboard either. Where to go next is tough. I just know how screwed I'm goijng to be fading Watson, but he saw his snaps drop pretty drastically from WW to DR, and MVS actually had a 19% target share with a big 17 aDOT... I want to take a flyer on him the most, but sprinkling in Watson/Hardman can make some sense where mass entering, but just stating where I lie. Playoff Kelce is here, and he has a massive 29% target share/7.19 aDOT, while playing 85% of the playoff snaps, I'll be sure to include him.
I know this can easily be a game where gus bus goes for 2+ TDs, but even with a lead last week, Hill played 57.4% of the snaps to Gus's 33.8%... so not only is he losing time, but he doesn't have much ppr value, and Lamar can vulture too... oh and Hill is cheaper... I don't know how I can justify taking him, outside of maybe 1 or 2 lineups max if mass entering. Give me hill 9/10 times. Hill is one of the cheap options most will go too, so really it is an ownership question, and there is obviously the possibility they go back to gus bus, and/or play with a lead throughout. We may have to throw OBJ out, he played the least of the 4 WRs by a decent margin (29.4% of snaps), had the worst target share (under 5%), and didn't even have the best aDOT. Bateman, will listed as a backup, was the WR2 in snaps (64.7%), had the best aDOT of 13, with a target share of 14.3%.... I think he is the HR hitter I'd take a chance on. Flowers is a weird version of Rice, slightly less target share, but a better aDOT, but he comes cheaper, and plays for the team with the better TTR, however the return of Andrews likely suppresses most other target shares on this team, so while I'll try to get him in, I would much rather dart throw Bateman/Agholor (19% target share) and pay up else where. Man, why couldn't andrews wait one more week.... Likely just finds TDs, and has a really good TE aDOT... I think for tourneys, I don't mind going either direction here, as most are concerned with the playing time/target breakdown, so a lower ownership creates leverage, but know it can obviously burn you.
DET/SFO
Lions have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
59ers have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation (2nd of 4), but a meh pass potential (3rd of 4). Montgomery/Swift have a meh run potential (3rd of 4).
Purdy has a great pressure rate situation (1st of 4), and a great pass potential (1st of 4). CMC has a good run potential (2nd of 4).
Lions TTR is 3rd.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
- Injuries - DET - On O, WR Raymond/TEs Wright/Mitchell are all still out. G Jackson is out.
- SFO - On D, DE Ferrell (43%) is still out, but DT Davis may be returning. LB Burks (35%) is Q.
The Lions have yet to compete in a negative script this playoffs... and in those 2 games Montgomery has out snapped Gibbs 55% to 35%~, while averaging 14.5 opps (2.5 targets), to Gibbs 12.5 opps (4 targets).... this snap% discrepancy is better for montgomery than any of his last 5 games of the regular season... if you think DET keeps it within one possession/plays with a lead, I think you take advantage of a lower owned, and cheaper, Montgomery. Having said that, you can argue that Gibbs can't be in a worse role than he has been, and is still getting 4 targets/g, and not being excluded out of the RZ... so if we get any negative run game script and we see his snaps get to 50%+, he could easily see 20+ opps, where there is much less scenarios for Montgomery to do the same. I obviously prefer Gibbs, but I am not going to be fading Montgomery as much as I have the past 7~ weeks. We only have to look at 3 WRs on DET with Raymond still out. ASB/Reynolds/Williams. In these 2 playoff weeks, ASB has a huge 34% target share, with a meh aDOT of 6.96, he is averaging 11.5 targets/g, and like I mentioned earlier, DET has not even played in a positive passing script matchup, and this one has the highest probability of doing so.... I wouldn't be shocked at a 15~ target game, and I can guarantee you he gets to at least double digit targets, I think he is a big priority for me. Jameson plays the least, he has only had a 9% target share this playoffs, but his aDOT is 16, so I don't mind dotting him in for just a couple lineups just incase he home runs, but I want more consistent, and I think Reynolds is a lower owned player than Williams will be as he isn't as flashy, but he has a better snap count (81.4% to 62.8%), and a better target share (15% to 9%), combined with a decent aDOT of 9... I'll have more of him than Williams. LaPorta is playing a lot of snaps (84.5%), and his target share is good at 20%, but his aDOT is still really bad at 4.14, much worse than all 3 of the other TE1s (if we use Likely for Andrews --- we know Andrews is typically high either way). I want to use him, but Kittle is equally priced, and imo has a much better floor/ceiling combo... I'll be slightly underweight.
CMC finsihed with almost 100% of snaps, and 29 opps (12 targets).... No RB on this slate can come close to that, and maybe a healthy Pacheco will be the only one that can get to even 20 opps..... If you fade him, you can already be considered dead in the water barring an early injury... he has to be in 80 to 90% of lineups for me. J. Jennings, played 63% of snaps and actually finished slightly better than Aiyuk in metics (both 16.5% targets, but he had a 10.17 aDOT to Aiyuks 9.83)... either way, even with Deebo returning, I think he can be played in a couple lineups, especially if people just cross him off now. Having said that about Aiyuk, I still want him the most among these WRs... we know he is ripe for a big play, and we are to attack this team through the air, I always push from him over Deebo due to the big aDOT discrepancy, it is obviously stronger here with Deebos uncertainty/reinjury risk. I mentioned Laporta above, but Kittle has the same target share really (19.5%), with a big aDOT of 11.14 --- why go to Laporta when you can have a guy getting targets almost 3 times deeper than him... I'll split this up maybe 80/20.
KCC/BAL
Chiefs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Ravens have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Mahomes has a meh pressure rate situation (3rd of 4), and a bad pass potential (4th of 4). Pacheco has a bad run potential (4th of 4).
Lamar has a bad pressure rate situation (4th of 4), but a good pass potential (2nd of 4). Gus Bus? has a great run potential (1st of 4).
Chiefs TTR is 4th.
Ravens TTR is 2nd (good).
Pace of play is 1st (meh), and O/U is 2nd (by about a TD).
- Injuries - KCC - On D, DT Nnadi (46%) is out. LB/S Yag (62%)/Edwards(57%) are Q. On O, still no WR/WR/RB Moore/Toney/McKinnon, RB Pacheco is Q. G Thuney is out.
- BAL - Healthy
I just can't trust Pacheco, I know he continued to play last week, but he definitely showed being hampered/pain moments after the injury occured... for tourneys (not cash games) I think getting cute with Helaire could be clever in some lineups where mass entering -- he allows you to afford the big boys too, as he is just 4.5K (and a direct pivot off 4.8K/more popular Hill). I mean pick your poison at WR outside of Rice... Rice in his 2 playoff games has a big 29% target share, but with just a 4.56 aDOT... I think he is super safe play, with upside, so I won't leave him off my pool, but I won't go overboard either. Where to go next is tough. I just know how screwed I'm goijng to be fading Watson, but he saw his snaps drop pretty drastically from WW to DR, and MVS actually had a 19% target share with a big 17 aDOT... I want to take a flyer on him the most, but sprinkling in Watson/Hardman can make some sense where mass entering, but just stating where I lie. Playoff Kelce is here, and he has a massive 29% target share/7.19 aDOT, while playing 85% of the playoff snaps, I'll be sure to include him.
I know this can easily be a game where gus bus goes for 2+ TDs, but even with a lead last week, Hill played 57.4% of the snaps to Gus's 33.8%... so not only is he losing time, but he doesn't have much ppr value, and Lamar can vulture too... oh and Hill is cheaper... I don't know how I can justify taking him, outside of maybe 1 or 2 lineups max if mass entering. Give me hill 9/10 times. Hill is one of the cheap options most will go too, so really it is an ownership question, and there is obviously the possibility they go back to gus bus, and/or play with a lead throughout. We may have to throw OBJ out, he played the least of the 4 WRs by a decent margin (29.4% of snaps), had the worst target share (under 5%), and didn't even have the best aDOT. Bateman, will listed as a backup, was the WR2 in snaps (64.7%), had the best aDOT of 13, with a target share of 14.3%.... I think he is the HR hitter I'd take a chance on. Flowers is a weird version of Rice, slightly less target share, but a better aDOT, but he comes cheaper, and plays for the team with the better TTR, however the return of Andrews likely suppresses most other target shares on this team, so while I'll try to get him in, I would much rather dart throw Bateman/Agholor (19% target share) and pay up else where. Man, why couldn't andrews wait one more week.... Likely just finds TDs, and has a really good TE aDOT... I think for tourneys, I don't mind going either direction here, as most are concerned with the playing time/target breakdown, so a lower ownership creates leverage, but know it can obviously burn you.
DET/SFO
Lions have a meh RB matchup, and a bad P matchup.
59ers have a meh P matchup, and a bad RB matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation (2nd of 4), but a meh pass potential (3rd of 4). Montgomery/Swift have a meh run potential (3rd of 4).
Purdy has a great pressure rate situation (1st of 4), and a great pass potential (1st of 4). CMC has a good run potential (2nd of 4).
Lions TTR is 3rd.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
- Injuries - DET - On O, WR Raymond/TEs Wright/Mitchell are all still out. G Jackson is out.
- SFO - On D, DE Ferrell (43%) is still out, but DT Davis may be returning. LB Burks (35%) is Q.
The Lions have yet to compete in a negative script this playoffs... and in those 2 games Montgomery has out snapped Gibbs 55% to 35%~, while averaging 14.5 opps (2.5 targets), to Gibbs 12.5 opps (4 targets).... this snap% discrepancy is better for montgomery than any of his last 5 games of the regular season... if you think DET keeps it within one possession/plays with a lead, I think you take advantage of a lower owned, and cheaper, Montgomery. Having said that, you can argue that Gibbs can't be in a worse role than he has been, and is still getting 4 targets/g, and not being excluded out of the RZ... so if we get any negative run game script and we see his snaps get to 50%+, he could easily see 20+ opps, where there is much less scenarios for Montgomery to do the same. I obviously prefer Gibbs, but I am not going to be fading Montgomery as much as I have the past 7~ weeks. We only have to look at 3 WRs on DET with Raymond still out. ASB/Reynolds/Williams. In these 2 playoff weeks, ASB has a huge 34% target share, with a meh aDOT of 6.96, he is averaging 11.5 targets/g, and like I mentioned earlier, DET has not even played in a positive passing script matchup, and this one has the highest probability of doing so.... I wouldn't be shocked at a 15~ target game, and I can guarantee you he gets to at least double digit targets, I think he is a big priority for me. Jameson plays the least, he has only had a 9% target share this playoffs, but his aDOT is 16, so I don't mind dotting him in for just a couple lineups just incase he home runs, but I want more consistent, and I think Reynolds is a lower owned player than Williams will be as he isn't as flashy, but he has a better snap count (81.4% to 62.8%), and a better target share (15% to 9%), combined with a decent aDOT of 9... I'll have more of him than Williams. LaPorta is playing a lot of snaps (84.5%), and his target share is good at 20%, but his aDOT is still really bad at 4.14, much worse than all 3 of the other TE1s (if we use Likely for Andrews --- we know Andrews is typically high either way). I want to use him, but Kittle is equally priced, and imo has a much better floor/ceiling combo... I'll be slightly underweight.
CMC finsihed with almost 100% of snaps, and 29 opps (12 targets).... No RB on this slate can come close to that, and maybe a healthy Pacheco will be the only one that can get to even 20 opps..... If you fade him, you can already be considered dead in the water barring an early injury... he has to be in 80 to 90% of lineups for me. J. Jennings, played 63% of snaps and actually finished slightly better than Aiyuk in metics (both 16.5% targets, but he had a 10.17 aDOT to Aiyuks 9.83)... either way, even with Deebo returning, I think he can be played in a couple lineups, especially if people just cross him off now. Having said that about Aiyuk, I still want him the most among these WRs... we know he is ripe for a big play, and we are to attack this team through the air, I always push from him over Deebo due to the big aDOT discrepancy, it is obviously stronger here with Deebos uncertainty/reinjury risk. I mentioned Laporta above, but Kittle has the same target share really (19.5%), with a big aDOT of 11.14 --- why go to Laporta when you can have a guy getting targets almost 3 times deeper than him... I'll split this up maybe 80/20.
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