ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Kind of like last week but a bit different.
Best ASR D's to Worst
PHI >> KCC > SFO >>> CIN
Best ALY D's to Worst
SFO > CIN >>> KCC >>>> PHI
The team totals currently range from 25 (KCC) to 21 (SFO).
Sunday Slate
49ers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a bad P/RB matchup.
PHI D has the best ASR matchup, Sanders/Gainwell have the worst ALY push, by far.
SFO D has a decent ASR matchup (3rd), CMC/Mitchell have the best ALY push.
PHI is the fastest team in the league in neutral situation (within 1 possession), 9th in sec/play.
SFO is the slowest team of the weekend, 26th overall, in neutral situations. 31st in sec/play.
- Injuries - SFO - RB Mitchell is Q.
- PHI - Nothing Major.
Bengals have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P/RB matchup.
KCC D has a good ASR matchup (2nd), Pacheco/McKinnon(Helaire?) have the 2nd best ALY push, not far behind SFO.
CIN D has the worst ASR matchup, by far, but maybe Mahomes new lack of mobility will help?, Mixon/Perine have a decent (3rd) ALY push.
KCC is the 2nd fastest team of the weekend, 3rd overall, in neutral situations, 14th in sec/play.
CIN is the 3rd fast team of the weekend, 14th overall, in neutral situations, 21st in sec/play.
- Injuries - KCC - WRs Watson/Hardman are Q. TE Kelce is Q (but fully practiced). RB/TE Helaire/Fortson could be activated.
- CIN - 3 OLineman still out (Williams/Cappa/Collins).
- Going to do an overall conversation for positions/etc, when it comes to DFS.
- From a QB perspective, we have 4.1~ choices
I say .1, because if mass entering, and you want to take a longshot stab on Henne incase mahomes gets hurt early, I understand, $1/$3/etc. to be right and possibly take down a tourney kind of makes sense, but let's continue.
Purdy I almost have no interest in, they're the slowest paced team, by far, they're a run first team, and PHI D is the toughest against the pass among the remaining teams. Idc if his ownership will be the lowest, the other guys upsides is something you can't make up.
You can make a case for either of the remaining 3 and I wouldn't blame you.
Burrow is probably my least favorite, he has the best perceived matchup, is the cheapest of the 3, which makes me think his ownership will be high, and he's failed to hit 300 yards in 7 of his last 8. I'll have a share or two.
Mahomes is interesting, he's expensive, with injury concerns, yet we know he has the highest ceiling of any QB, and the team throws more in the redzone than anyone else. Outside of Kelce, he's hard to pair with due to his sharing is caring year. I won't be afraid to click his name, especially if others are.
Hurts may be my favorite. He has a perceived tough matchup, in the slower paced game, with the lower O/U total, but he has TD equity in the RZ, with the best rushing floor, and SFO has been susceptible to WRs, if the game gets out of a neutral situation, I think it helps him in either direction, which you can't say the same for Mahomes/Burrow.
- From a RB perspective, it's interesting, as there really isn't a bell cow left.
Only 2 RBs hit 2/3rds of snaps, and one of them was McKinnon.
He just posted a dud that people will be salty about, plus his counter part just when for over 100 total yards. So there may be some recency bias. In a neutral script, you know he succeeds, and in a closely contested match, I think he does too.... If CIN plans to not let Kelce do what he did to the Jags, plus his popped up injury, they're going to want McKinnon in there for pass protection/check downs, and he's someone I like a lot. You can obviously build a script for Pacheco, and I don't think it's a bad idea, but I do favor McKinnon today. Again, he played 65% of snaps to Pacheco's 35% of snaps, in a game where they had a 1 to 2 possession lead practically throughout.
Before I leave this KC game, let's take Mixon/Perine. My 1 mistake last week was fading Mixon as much as I did, but Perine didn't fail with a solid 11.4 ppr FPs. In Wk 19, he out snapped mixon 53 to 45%, and in Wk 20, it was Mixon 56%, Perine 44%. Do we think CIN plays with a 1 to 2 possession lead like last week, or a closer/negative script like 2 weeks ago? I still rather Perine at 4.5K than Mixon at 6.5K, I understand Mixon has range though, and can obviously be the RB1, but I'll take my chances again.
The other RB to hit 2/3rds of snaps was CMC.
Even with injury, that seems to be his floor, as he also went 74% of snaps the prior week, when the 2nd half was a blowout. He's by far my favorite back, as he does it all, has the highest snap potential, by a lot, and they have the best ALY push of the 4 teams (as well as one of the 2 most favorable spots). His direct back-up, Mitchell is Q.... I don't hate him in a lineup or two/pivot off CMC, if he's in, but idk if I go there, I'd have more interest in Mason if Mitchell was out. But same thing, reserved for just a couple of lineups.
Look, would it surprise me to see Sanders get 2+ TDs, honestly, I don't think it would, and it would come at super low ownership, but I can't stomach a 0 to 1 target ceiling, vulturing of Hurts/Gainwell/Scott, and the toughest matchup of the week. I'll note that last weeks blowout saw him just play 40% of snaps, which still led the backfield, and maybe he can get to 60%+, so I'll have him in just a couple of lineups but I will not be overweight by any means. I think a ton of people chase Gainwells performance, I'm staying away, think I'd rather get Perine, or just go up to the KC backs.
- From a TE perspective, it looks fun, as we have atleast 3 legit ones, and one who's low-key been decent past 5~ weeks.
Look, Kelce is obviously an Alpha. he's ceiling/floor combo is unmatched, if you can afford him, you almost have to do it. Now if you want to get sexy, and hope he fails, and does, you may end up with some great leverage, plus the other options aren't terrible.
Goedert is cheap, and in the blowout he still played 96% of snaps, and finished with a 5-58-1 statline. He has a solid floor, and if you think he can do half of what Kelce does, he can be worth it (almost half the price).
Kittle has a great aDOT of 13~ in both games, he's averaging a 91% snap count rate in the playoffs, IF you think PHI plays with a lead, I think he's a solid option, but he's very range-y, as pointed out earlier, I didn't care for purdy as they are the slowest team, and run first mentality, so that cascades to the pass catchers... but if you think they play from behind, he could be really good, and we know he's a redzone threat too.
Hurst is super cheap, and it's why it kind of eliminates Kelce's backups... I will note, if playing with a lead, his snap count drops significantly, a 50%'er. In a closely contested match, he's an 80%er. Since his return from injury he's averaging 5.66~ targets a game, so the floor is there, and Kelce more than 2.5x's his salary. if he goes 5-40-1, he's optimal by a mile. If you think CIN wins, I'd avoid it though completely.
- From a WR perspective, it comes down to QB stacking/game stacks, with one one-off or so.
KC - JuJu --- MVS ---- Toney/Watson. If Hardman plays, I'm concerned. When he last played, Toney wasn't on the team, so I'm not sure how much it'll hurt MVS now, when before it really didn't. Juju was the only WR above 56% of snaps last week, at 85%, he's cheap, and at least reliable in the snap department. If Hardman is out, I'll be much happier with MVS.
CIN - Chase ------ Boyd/Higgins. I have a hard time with this one, the pricing on the site is really good, and I think the failure of Higgins will suppress his ownership, which I don't think is warranted. Having said that, Boyd plays similar snaps, and is much cheaper, so I'm torn.
PHI - Brown ---- Smith --------- Quez - Pascal. Brown/Smith are way to similar in price, I like smith, and I'll have him, but Brown is the aDOT guy with bigger ceiling. Quez/Pascal for one-off's in mass entries.
SFO - Aiyuk ---- Deebo/Jennings. Aiyuk is the HR/aDOT hitter, and his price is soooo damn cheap, he plays almost every snap too.
Best ASR D's to Worst
PHI >> KCC > SFO >>> CIN
Best ALY D's to Worst
SFO > CIN >>> KCC >>>> PHI
The team totals currently range from 25 (KCC) to 21 (SFO).
Sunday Slate
49ers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a bad P/RB matchup.
PHI D has the best ASR matchup, Sanders/Gainwell have the worst ALY push, by far.
SFO D has a decent ASR matchup (3rd), CMC/Mitchell have the best ALY push.
PHI is the fastest team in the league in neutral situation (within 1 possession), 9th in sec/play.
SFO is the slowest team of the weekend, 26th overall, in neutral situations. 31st in sec/play.
- Injuries - SFO - RB Mitchell is Q.
- PHI - Nothing Major.
Bengals have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P/RB matchup.
KCC D has a good ASR matchup (2nd), Pacheco/McKinnon(Helaire?) have the 2nd best ALY push, not far behind SFO.
CIN D has the worst ASR matchup, by far, but maybe Mahomes new lack of mobility will help?, Mixon/Perine have a decent (3rd) ALY push.
KCC is the 2nd fastest team of the weekend, 3rd overall, in neutral situations, 14th in sec/play.
CIN is the 3rd fast team of the weekend, 14th overall, in neutral situations, 21st in sec/play.
- Injuries - KCC - WRs Watson/Hardman are Q. TE Kelce is Q (but fully practiced). RB/TE Helaire/Fortson could be activated.
- CIN - 3 OLineman still out (Williams/Cappa/Collins).
- Going to do an overall conversation for positions/etc, when it comes to DFS.
- From a QB perspective, we have 4.1~ choices
I say .1, because if mass entering, and you want to take a longshot stab on Henne incase mahomes gets hurt early, I understand, $1/$3/etc. to be right and possibly take down a tourney kind of makes sense, but let's continue.
Purdy I almost have no interest in, they're the slowest paced team, by far, they're a run first team, and PHI D is the toughest against the pass among the remaining teams. Idc if his ownership will be the lowest, the other guys upsides is something you can't make up.
You can make a case for either of the remaining 3 and I wouldn't blame you.
Burrow is probably my least favorite, he has the best perceived matchup, is the cheapest of the 3, which makes me think his ownership will be high, and he's failed to hit 300 yards in 7 of his last 8. I'll have a share or two.
Mahomes is interesting, he's expensive, with injury concerns, yet we know he has the highest ceiling of any QB, and the team throws more in the redzone than anyone else. Outside of Kelce, he's hard to pair with due to his sharing is caring year. I won't be afraid to click his name, especially if others are.
Hurts may be my favorite. He has a perceived tough matchup, in the slower paced game, with the lower O/U total, but he has TD equity in the RZ, with the best rushing floor, and SFO has been susceptible to WRs, if the game gets out of a neutral situation, I think it helps him in either direction, which you can't say the same for Mahomes/Burrow.
- From a RB perspective, it's interesting, as there really isn't a bell cow left.
Only 2 RBs hit 2/3rds of snaps, and one of them was McKinnon.
He just posted a dud that people will be salty about, plus his counter part just when for over 100 total yards. So there may be some recency bias. In a neutral script, you know he succeeds, and in a closely contested match, I think he does too.... If CIN plans to not let Kelce do what he did to the Jags, plus his popped up injury, they're going to want McKinnon in there for pass protection/check downs, and he's someone I like a lot. You can obviously build a script for Pacheco, and I don't think it's a bad idea, but I do favor McKinnon today. Again, he played 65% of snaps to Pacheco's 35% of snaps, in a game where they had a 1 to 2 possession lead practically throughout.
Before I leave this KC game, let's take Mixon/Perine. My 1 mistake last week was fading Mixon as much as I did, but Perine didn't fail with a solid 11.4 ppr FPs. In Wk 19, he out snapped mixon 53 to 45%, and in Wk 20, it was Mixon 56%, Perine 44%. Do we think CIN plays with a 1 to 2 possession lead like last week, or a closer/negative script like 2 weeks ago? I still rather Perine at 4.5K than Mixon at 6.5K, I understand Mixon has range though, and can obviously be the RB1, but I'll take my chances again.
The other RB to hit 2/3rds of snaps was CMC.
Even with injury, that seems to be his floor, as he also went 74% of snaps the prior week, when the 2nd half was a blowout. He's by far my favorite back, as he does it all, has the highest snap potential, by a lot, and they have the best ALY push of the 4 teams (as well as one of the 2 most favorable spots). His direct back-up, Mitchell is Q.... I don't hate him in a lineup or two/pivot off CMC, if he's in, but idk if I go there, I'd have more interest in Mason if Mitchell was out. But same thing, reserved for just a couple of lineups.
Look, would it surprise me to see Sanders get 2+ TDs, honestly, I don't think it would, and it would come at super low ownership, but I can't stomach a 0 to 1 target ceiling, vulturing of Hurts/Gainwell/Scott, and the toughest matchup of the week. I'll note that last weeks blowout saw him just play 40% of snaps, which still led the backfield, and maybe he can get to 60%+, so I'll have him in just a couple of lineups but I will not be overweight by any means. I think a ton of people chase Gainwells performance, I'm staying away, think I'd rather get Perine, or just go up to the KC backs.
- From a TE perspective, it looks fun, as we have atleast 3 legit ones, and one who's low-key been decent past 5~ weeks.
Look, Kelce is obviously an Alpha. he's ceiling/floor combo is unmatched, if you can afford him, you almost have to do it. Now if you want to get sexy, and hope he fails, and does, you may end up with some great leverage, plus the other options aren't terrible.
Goedert is cheap, and in the blowout he still played 96% of snaps, and finished with a 5-58-1 statline. He has a solid floor, and if you think he can do half of what Kelce does, he can be worth it (almost half the price).
Kittle has a great aDOT of 13~ in both games, he's averaging a 91% snap count rate in the playoffs, IF you think PHI plays with a lead, I think he's a solid option, but he's very range-y, as pointed out earlier, I didn't care for purdy as they are the slowest team, and run first mentality, so that cascades to the pass catchers... but if you think they play from behind, he could be really good, and we know he's a redzone threat too.
Hurst is super cheap, and it's why it kind of eliminates Kelce's backups... I will note, if playing with a lead, his snap count drops significantly, a 50%'er. In a closely contested match, he's an 80%er. Since his return from injury he's averaging 5.66~ targets a game, so the floor is there, and Kelce more than 2.5x's his salary. if he goes 5-40-1, he's optimal by a mile. If you think CIN wins, I'd avoid it though completely.
- From a WR perspective, it comes down to QB stacking/game stacks, with one one-off or so.
KC - JuJu --- MVS ---- Toney/Watson. If Hardman plays, I'm concerned. When he last played, Toney wasn't on the team, so I'm not sure how much it'll hurt MVS now, when before it really didn't. Juju was the only WR above 56% of snaps last week, at 85%, he's cheap, and at least reliable in the snap department. If Hardman is out, I'll be much happier with MVS.
CIN - Chase ------ Boyd/Higgins. I have a hard time with this one, the pricing on the site is really good, and I think the failure of Higgins will suppress his ownership, which I don't think is warranted. Having said that, Boyd plays similar snaps, and is much cheaper, so I'm torn.
PHI - Brown ---- Smith --------- Quez - Pascal. Brown/Smith are way to similar in price, I like smith, and I'll have him, but Brown is the aDOT guy with bigger ceiling. Quez/Pascal for one-off's in mass entries.
SFO - Aiyuk ---- Deebo/Jennings. Aiyuk is the HR/aDOT hitter, and his price is soooo damn cheap, he plays almost every snap too.
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