Dapper Dan Picks - 24/25 Season Long Thread

DapperDan

Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks:
2023-24 Season: 96-90 (-9.19 units)

Last season was rough with a lot of ups and downs, we did learn a few tricks to improve our handicapping. One thing remains true in sports betting is we’re human - and so are the players - and we are influenced by our emotions and circumstances around us. So we ride the waves, the heaters, the losing streaks - and continue to tread on. Last year, I had my daughter Isabella born and changed my perspective on a lot of things. This year, we have more reasons than ever to focus on what we’ve learned over the last 20 years betting and place better bets and hit at a higher %. Here’s all the years I’ve posted online on forums and now I currently track on Bestamp as well. Good luck to all in the season:

NCAAF Posted Records:
2012: 80-58 (+22.3 units)
2013: 96-97 (+10.62 units)
2014: 66-87 (-27.55 units)
2015: 82-54 (+26.98 units)
2016: 65-67 (-5.37 units)
2017: 74-66 (+1.41 units)
2018: 72-90 (-20.19 units)
2019: 70-68 (+0.87 units)
2020: 70-64 (+1.63 units)
2021: 89-63 (+25.68 units)
2022: 56-62 (-18.86 units)
2023: 96-90 (-9.19 units)

Lifetime Total: 916-866 (+8.33 units) (51.4% win %)

2024-25:
Week 0:
Georgia Tech +10.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
We have the more experienced team, GT is ranked 24th on PS’s experience chart and FSU is ranked 73rd in exp returning with only 24% of their total yard production, and 50% of their tackles on defense. I loved watching GT starting QB Haynes King develop over the year and he knows how to run the ball, and when to do it and just enough to get the chains moving. He has an excellent returning offensive line, with losing all but one, and have 128 starts under their belt - last year they ranked 13th in ypa on the ground and 25th in sack % allowed. Their great numbers are a good reflection of their head coach, Brent Key, who took over after Geoff Collins was fired in ‘22 and he had a long history as an offensive line coach, including 3 years under Nick Saban at Alabama. On defense, which needed help, GT brings in new DC Tyler Santucci, who was DC over at Duke last year where they only allowed 19 ppg. Key brought in 9 transfers and 5 starters return and the defense should be in a better position to not get in shootout’s every game like last season. FSU is a completely revamped team losing many to the draft and transfer portal and only 5 returning starters on both sides of the ball. I’ve never been a fan of DJ Ulagalelei, back to his Clemson days he seemed to be slow and clumsy in the pocket and inaccurate under pressure. He always had a great team around him. I think the more experienced team keeps this one close and wouldn’t be surprised if they come out with an upset against their ACC rival to kick off the season in another country. Lowing scoring and maybe sprinkle some on King rushing yards.
 
I agree taking the points only way to go, Noles gotta replace a lot and they will be better as season goes but tech has a ton back especially on offense. I like king rush yards and think gotta take the points as well. I might do 1sr half i dunno. Good to see ya buddy. Gl this year
 
Thanks Fellas - Glad to see you all back and looking forward to seeing what you all got too.
This week 1 card sucks though - haha

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 1-0 (+1 unit)

Week 1:
Jacksonville State ML (-138)
Temple/Oklahoma Under 58 (-107)

More to come Saturday Morning….Good luck all

Week 1:
Jacksonville State ML (-138) Risking 1.38 units to win 1 units
I love me some Rich Rod rushing attacks - especially against a notoriously porous defense on the ground - Coastal Carolina ranked 101st last year in yards per rush allowed and although they beat Jacksonville State last season 30-16 - there were a couple big plays and turnovers that made the difference. Coastal Carolina struggles to run the ball too, and Jax State is very stout upfront - ranking 4th last year only allowing 2.8 yards per carry. In last year's matchup, Jax State controlled the line of scrimmage, only allowing Coastal Carolina to rack up 131 yards on 45 carries (2.91 ypc) and 77 of those yards came on one run late in the 4th - so if you exclude that - they actually ran for 54 yards on 44 carries - yikes. Jax State in contrast ran for 185 yards on 45 carries (4.13 ypc). Both teams come back pretty inexperienced - with Jax State slightly more and thankfully their most experienced unit is their defensive backs who showed improvement over the season. I think Rich Rod’s system and the revenge game at home to kick off the season is very important for this team who has had a big turnaround since RichRod has taken over and in their 3rd year together- on the other side we just have Tim Beck who has jumped around a lot of good top teams but always just as on OC but first time as a head coach in his 2nd year with a weak supporting cast of coordinators.

Temple/Oklahoma Under 58 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma with a new starting QB here in the first game of the season - lets hope for some growing pains. They also have a whole new offensive line as none of the starters return - although they are very experienced but they are mostly transfers and shifting around so they may take some time to jive. I doubt Temple will be able to put up 14 as most of Oklahoma’s defense returns and we’ve already seen dramatic improvement under returning head coach/defensive guru Brent Venables in his 2nd year he reduced the ppg by a TD to 23.5 last season. Temple is a very inexperienced team too ranking #129th in PS exp chart - they have also had 6 new head coaches in the 7 years before Stan Drayton took over and this his 2nd year. He has a very bland offense and there’s nothing special about his coordinators - this team has gone downhill tremendously since Rhule left in 2019. This game should probably end like 42-7 and stay comfortably under the total.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: (1-1) -0.38 units
Season YTD: (2-1) +0.62 units

Good Luck All - That’s it for today - writeups short but sweet as we wait for the stats to pour in on the season.

Week 1 adds:
Iowa -22.5 (-108)
WVU +8 (-110)
Vtech -13 (-110)
UNLV +3.5 (-114) 2x
Northwestern -2.5 (-120)
ND/TexasAM over 46 (-110)

Iowa -22.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Iowa returns 8 starters on a defense that was one of the best in the country - and 77% of their total tackles. Their offense returns 10 starters and a healthy Cade McNamara and although their offense has persistently struggled for YEARS finally the nepotism responsible for allowing the poor performance for so long - has ended as they finally ousted Kirk Ferentz son - Brian Ferentz who was a long time shitty offensive coordinator for Iowa. In comes Tim Lester who will bring a whole new offense, and I expect them to be rejuvenated and play with much more confidence under better play calling. Their defense coordinator is still Phil Parker (and has been for 13 years) and he finally won the Broyles award last year - expect his defense to be stout as always - especially against this FCS opponent. I really don’t know much about Illinois State - but I’m confident Iowa can hold them to under 2 TDs so can their offense put up 30+? I think they will do their best to establish their new offense and even get a defensive TD or two.

WVU +8 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
In last year's renewed rivalvry matchup to start off the season, Penn State was 20 point favorites and covered - winning by 23. This year the books know it should be a one TD game or less, as Penn State only returns 6 starters on offense, and 7 on defense. Their offensive line is completely revamped and the new guys only have 45 career starts - ranking #112th in the nation. They will have to keep pace with a WVU offense, that returns nearly in-tact with 8 returning starters including Garret Greene at QB who developed nicely over the season and will be in his 3rd year starting with the same in-house promoted offensive coordinator - Chad Scott. They will surely have some tricks drawn up against a Penn State team who is bringing in two new coordinators under James Franklin. Drew Allar will also be without his top two WR’s from last season. Hopefully WVU’s defense will improve this season and they have a lot of new faces out there but their offense was able to keep them in most games last season regardless and I think they will keep this one close too against their cross town football who are only a few hour drive away.

Vtech -13 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Vtech comes back the #2 ranked experienced team for PS with 11 starters on offense and 10 on defense back. Not only are they very experienced but in their 3rd year together with their cohesive coaching staff under Brent Pry, with the same two coordinators - you have to expect they will come out strong after losing 3 of their first 4 last season, and the infamous season opener against Old Dominion in Pry’s first year. On the other side, Clark Lea is under a lot of pressure to perform as his team returned to the 2-10 form from his 1st year after slightly improving the year before to 5-7. They bring over New Mexico State’s offensive coordinator and QB Diego Paiva, but this isn’t a conference USA defense like they are accustomed to seeing. Vanderbilt averaged 14 points less than their opponents allowed all season and I don’t see why they wouldn’t lose by that much in this one.


UNLV +3.5 (-115) Risking 2.3 units to win 2 units
UNLV went from 5-7 to 9-5 under Barry Odom and his two coordinators and although they lost their starting back field, their new QB will have plenty experience as Sluka and Williams are both saw a lot of action from their FCS transfers and Sluka was a Walter Payton award finalist each of the last two years. On the other side you have Houston with a whole new coaching staff, interestingly enough both his coordinators have been ae 3 different programs the last 3 years as well so I don’t expect them to be well synced to an already depleted Houston team that went from 12-2 in ‘21 to 8-5 in ‘22 to 4-8 last year. They brought in transfer Donovan Smith who got benched over at Texas Tech as he struggled at decision making and pocket presence. Both their offense and defense only return 5 starters so this is a whole new system on the down trend against an established up-tempo offense, with experienced play callers and dual threat options to run their RPO. Our biggest bet of Week 1 - our only 2 unit play - we love the points.

Northwestern -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
NW quietly won 4 of their last 5 upsetting Wisconsin, Purdue, Maryland and Illinois. They looked like a mess in the beginning of the season. You would have been crazy to put on them considering the firing of Pat Fitgerald but David Braun did a great job and has 15 returning starters and an experienced transfer starting QB in Mike Wright. Last time they faced off in 2022, Miami Ohio came up with the upset but I don’t expect that result in this one. Miami Oh has 6 returning starters on both sides of the ball and somehow they went 11-3 despite only average 25 ppg - their defense led them by only allowing 16 ppg but they certainly weren’t any BIG 10 opponents and their SOS comparison is HUGE compared to NW. Brett Gabbert is back starting after being knocked out by injury halfway through the season for the last two years - he isn’t very good and is a “game manager” at best. He has all new WR’s and RBs behind him and this will be a much higher caliber defense then they are used to.


ND/TexasAM over 46 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I was leaning heavy on the over just looking at the line-ups with our boy Riley Leonard transferring from Duke and Connor Weigman returning under center for Texas AM after getting knocked out by injury last season after the first 3 games, he looked great. Almost every preview and prediction article I read is heavily supporting the under, which is why it is holding the low number but I think the playmakijng abilities of our QBs will do just enough to get us over this low total of 46 - especially in this new age with a two minute time out….
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: (4-4) +0.32 units
Season YTD: (5-4) +1.32 units

More to come tomorrow morning.

Week 2:
Northwestern ML (-115)
Northwestern has this game circled on their calendar as Duke has beat them the last 5 times they've played since 2017 almost every year - but this is the first time NW has the more cohesive and experienced team. NW should control this game at the line of scrimmage like they did last week where they ran for 150 yards on 31 yards and 4.84 ypc with QB Mike Wright racking up 65 yards on the ground too. On defense, NW’s front held Miami OH to 40 yards on 24 carries averaging 1.67 ypc and it’s hard to believe we don’t see a similar mismatch against this new Duke team who ran for 2.19 ypc against Elon last week. Duke has a whole new coaching staff this season since Elko departed so expect some more growing pains. They are a very young and inexperienced o-line, ranking 119th in total starts before the season. Maalik Murphy hasn’t seen a BIG 10 defense and had a lot more weapons around him last year in the few games he came in relief for Texas but don’t think he’s the type of QB to take over a game when the run game isn’t working. Northwestern squeaks out an old fashioned low scoring BIG 10 defensive battle.
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: (4-4) +0.32 units
Season YTD: (5-4) +1.32 units

More to come tomorrow morning.

Week 2:
Northwestern ML (-115)
Northwestern has this game circled on their calendar as Duke has beat them the last 5 times they've played since 2017 almost every year - but this is the first time NW has the more cohesive and experienced team. NW should control this game at the line of scrimmage like they did last week where they ran for 150 yards on 31 yards and 4.84 ypc with QB Mike Wright racking up 65 yards on the ground too. On defense, NW’s front held Miami OH to 40 yards on 24 carries averaging 1.67 ypc and it’s hard to believe we don’t see a similar mismatch against this new Duke team who ran for 2.19 ypc against Elon last week. Duke has a whole new coaching staff this season since Elko departed so expect some more growing pains. They are a very young and inexperienced o-line, ranking 119th in total starts before the season. Maalik Murphy hasn’t seen a BIG 10 defense and had a lot more weapons around him last year in the few games he came in relief for Texas but don’t think he’s the type of QB to take over a game when the run game isn’t working. Northwestern squeaks out an old fashioned low scoring BIG 10 defensive battle.
I'll be tailing this play this evening as I believe you hit the nail on the head with your reasoning, BOL Dan
 
Thanks CJG. Ugh - last night was brutal as had some on the under too.....fricking the whole day I was hoping they used Wright's leg's more then they decide to use on a strech play on 3rd and 1 and lose 8 yards and that was the game. ARGH! and that was a fumble too!

Week 2: (0-1) -1.15 units
Season YTD: (5-5) +0.17 units

No writeups until Week 4 atleast so we have more stats to pull from and I have more time. Not enough time in the day - can we get it all in?

Week 2 Adds:
Texas -6 (-110)
Rutgers -23 (-105)
Iowa ML (-127)
Michigan State +10 (-110)
Kansas/Illinois over 55 (-125)
Oklahoma -27.5 (-110)
Tenn/NC State Over 59 (-110)
Texas Tech ML (+106) 2x (2 UNITS)
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 2: (4-5) -2.77 units
Season YTD: (9-9) -1.45 units

Couple bad beats last week. Starting to make some spreadsheets but only two games (some only one bc FCS opponents don't track) to pull data from - argh- next week we come back with write-ups FIRING! More adds in the morning

Week 3:
Arizona +7.5 (-110)
 
Thanks BiffT. How many years we been doing this now? Lol. Never had 3 losing season in a row - were headed for the green!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (9-10) -2.55 units

Week 3 Adds:
LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 (-115)
Notre Dame -7 (-120)
WVU ML (-120)
UF +4 (-120)
Washington -4.5 (-110)
Indiana ML (-157)
UCF +2.5 (-104) 2x
 
Thanks BiffT. How many years we been doing this now? Lol. Never had 3 losing season in a row - were headed for the green!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: (9-10) -2.55 units

Week 3 Adds:
LSU/South Carolina Under 48.5 (-115)
Notre Dame -7 (-120)
WVU ML (-120)
UF +4 (-120)
Washington -4.5 (-110)
Indiana ML (-157)
UCF +2.5 (-104) 2x
Let's go Dan!
 
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