Conference Championship Discussion...

[bones]

TOTAL 55 Pats vs Broncos:

This is a question: Isn't there good reason to believe that the total will not exceed this number?

My thought, and its just a thought, is that Pats D will not be as susceptible to Manning's passing as SD and that drives to score, when they occur, will be time consuming. Also, won't Fox & Manning want to be methodical and not get in a shoot-out with Brady? It seems to me that Bronco's weakness on D is minimized by having them on the field as little as possible. Keep the ball for drives, not attempts at quick strikes.

Similarly, while agreeing that Brady is better than Rivers, does Brady have weapons greater than Chargers which would make Hoodie and Brady want to get in a 'shoot-out'? Isn't that the riskiest strategy for Pats? Instead, a methodical run-first and play action passing seems wiser? Also, teach your D not to jump off-side 5 times and have at least a similar success as Chargers in limiting Bronco's offense.

Now, no doubt that this game could sail over in what is predicted as perfect weather, but what is the most probable outcome?

Thoughts?

 

[scdoggy]

I'd be awfully careful on that total if I were you guys. I don't see anything about Manning or Denver that makes me think they are going to do a ton of the heavy lifting to get to a huge number in 55. I don't see this game even sniffing 50. What New England has that is a bit unique right now is some semblance of a power run game. If they get a lead in this game, especially by more than one score - you can bet your ass Hoodie is suddenly going to turn that offense into a clock milker with lots of runs, and short possession style passing from Brady.

Don't get caught up in the Manning/Brady bullshit. Manning has played in 21 career playoff games, many of which were played with a better offense than the one he has now, and only four times out of 21 has the game shown more than 52 points scored......

 

[BJPLAYER]

TOTAL 55 Pats vs Broncos:

This is a question: Isn't there good reason to believe that the total will not exceed this number?

My thought, and its just a thought, is that Pats D will not be as susceptible to Manning's passing as SD and that drives to score, when they occur, will be time consuming. Also, won't Fox & Manning want to be methodical and not get in a shoot-out with Brady? It seems to me that Bronco's weakness on D is minimized by having them on the field as little as possible. Keep the ball for drives, not attempts at quick strikes.

Similarly, while agreeing that Brady is better than Rivers, does Brady have weapons greater than Chargers which would make Hoodie and Brady want to get in a 'shoot-out'? Isn't that the riskiest strategy for Pats? Instead, a methodical run-first and play action passing seems wiser? Also, teach your D not to jump off-side 5 times and have at least a similar success as Chargers in limiting Bronco's offense.

Now, no doubt that this game could sail over in what is predicted as perfect weather, but what is the most probable outcome?

Thoughts?

bones….i watch all the ne games and my first thought when the total came out was wow that is an awful big number….pats d has steadily improved throughout the season and the broncos d looked as good as i have seen them on sunday (albeit sd played right into their hands for 3 quarters)…i totally agree with doggy here although if brady has the opportunity he will stomp manning by 4 touchdowns and won't stop till it's take a knee time…thats just their way…this game could go over the total but i do not believe that either offense is good enough to be sure they will score a ton on the opposing defenses….pats will play ball control if they up a couple score (maybe 3) but i don't see that happening,i see the defenses getting enough stops to slow brady/manning into a score similar to the sd game maybe 7-10 more….and of course with these two qb's and offenses it could be 17-14 going into the 4th and end up 31-28….the under will be a play for me for sure and i have already teased the total up to 68.5 in a 13pt 4 teamer with sf/o/ne/u….good luck

 

[bones]

Thanks scdoggy and bjplayer.....I agree with each of you. That being said, I have yet to take the Under but Under it will be if I decide to make a total wager

 

[Toronto_Mike]

after seeing this I kind of want Wilson to win badly lol

http://m.imgur.com/KAW6hk2

 

[cogenman]

after seeing this I kind of want Wilson to win badly lol

http://m.imgur.com/KAW6hk2

No doubt RW is a great caring guy. But I wouldn't say CK is a pos or anything. He just needs some maturing to do.

 

[gsro]

No doubt RW is a great caring guy. But I wouldn't say CK is a pos or anything. He just needs some maturing to do.

I agree, he'll mature sooner or later

 

[emkee]

Home team in Conference 'Ship games...

2012: 0-2 SU (0-2 ATS)

2011: 1-1 SU (0-2 ATS)

2010: 1-1 SU (1-1 ATS)

2009: 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS)

2008: 2-0 SU (2-0 ATS)

2007: 1-1 SU (0-2 ATS)

2006: 2-0 SU (2-0 ATS)

Home team is 9-5 SU (6-8 ATS) since the 06/07 season.

 

[Gaius.T]

Of course the genius of Hoodie is that the Donks may gameplan to stop the run all week while Brady comes out in no huddle and throws 25 times to start the game.

Had the same thought! I like those options!

 

[XhuegoX]

after seeing this I kind of want Wilson to win badly lol

http://m.imgur.com/KAW6hk2

nice image created by a seattle fan.


http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...comparison-is-totally-off-base-182213225.html

 

[Lareux]

nice image created by a seattle fan.


http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...comparison-is-totally-off-base-182213225.html

Exactly. The first time you looked at the image that the Seattle fan created, you had to think it was just BS. I'm not a Kaep fan at all, and would probably rather have Wilson as my QB between the 2 of them, but that photo comparison was pretty unfair and clearly biased. I was pretty sure, before reading the Yahoo article, that Kaep does some pretty good stuff for charities...most guys in the NFL do, whether it's by their choice or not is another conversation I guess.

One could also infer that Wilson posting all of that to his Instagram is saying "look at me, look at all the good I'm doing," while others like to do the charity work w/o all of the fanfare and accolades that may come with it. I'm NOT saying that's the case, simply that the case could easily be made. There are a ton of pro athletes who don't want anyone to know what they are doing for charities, sick kids, etc...because they don't want it to even look like they're doing it only for the publicity. A lot of them genuinely like what they are able to do for their communities, and like to keep it quiet...not publish it on Instragram for all to see.

 

[scdoggy]

 

[scdoggy]

Motherfuck Russell Wilson and Petie...

 

[BJPLAYER]

looking at the ne/donks game from a different perspective….coaches/sports enthusiasts like to say that the players and how they bring it are ultimately responsible for the outcome of a game and i think that in most athletic contests that rings true…baskets and bases for sure…but in this matchup with two teams that have played each other already this year and arguably comparable in talent (although i would give the edge to the broncos here) i am inclined to look at the coach and his game plan and the execution of that plan combined with the ability of the qb to read and audible at the line as very prominent factors in this game….football is a sport where 11 men with less talent can beat 11 superior talented athletes with ingenuity and execution

that being said lets look at the management of the two teams….both very good with an edge going to kraft/belechik/brady because of their sustained success while you look at elway/fox/manning and while they are good you do not get the same feeling of preparedness…..then you look at the qb's and you see two very similar guys that are pocket passers and excellent at changing the play on the fly….manning gets a lot of press for this because he creates the press with his well rehearsed antics under center that are equal parts professional and theatre….belechik says that he feels pressure coming into the team meeting every tuesday because he knows that brady is coming to the meeting with the next weeks game completely broken down and ready to challenge him….if you watch brady he captains his team with effective leadership and for the most part calmly (occasional emotion to get people fired up and playing hard) as witnessed in a recent game where the pats were in an illegal formation and brady noticed it with 10 seconds left on the play clock and calmly rearranged the line to meet specs and came back to his spot and got the ball as time ran out and executed the play….he didn't jump around holler and scream and try to make everyone think he's a mastermind…regardless of tactics the edge goes to manning not because he will be better prepared (brady will be) but because he won't have to deal with the noise….simple as that….hfa….so in my mind this game comes down to the game plan developed by the head coaches that relates to the effectiveness of the defenses…..and i do not know who is going to win that battle….but i ain't laying points

 

[brent_L]

As much as both Ds have shown glimpses lately I just couldn't (and can't imagine how anyone could) take the under whatsoever against these two quarterbacks when the weather is decent. IMO IF it's a closely contested game where the lead never blows out I c about 6-7 touchdowns......if there's a pick 6, turnover in poor field position or a big special teams play it's then goin over. Now if either team does get out to a sizeable lead, the opposing qb could/probably would get their team back in it pretty quick just like we've seen in the past. If this happens to play out then surely it's over 54. I'll take the overs in a few small multis but not with a tonne of confidence.
My play would have been Denver ats but really wanna c Tom get another ring......possible man love.

 

[BJPLAYER]

As much as both Ds have shown glimpses lately I just couldn't (and can't imagine how anyone could) take the under whatsoever against these two quarterbacks when the weather is decent. IMO IF it's a closely contested game where the lead never blows out I c about 6-7 touchdowns......if there's a pick 6, turnover in poor field position or a big special teams play it's then goin over. Now if either team does get out to a sizeable lead, the opposing qb could/probably would get their team back in it pretty quick just like we've seen in the past. If this happens to play out then surely it's over 54. I'll take the overs in a few small multis but not with a tonne of confidence.
My play would have been Denver ats but really wanna c Tom get another ring......possible man love.

i hear what you are saying and would not be surprised if it goes over….but both offenses have shown a propensity toward long drives recently….take the last game between these two and take out the points off turnovers (17 in the first 12 minutes and a td in the 2nd) and they only score about 40 points….will be a great game i hope and i have the same hopes for brady….the guy is so cool

 

[austinhous]

As much as both Ds have shown glimpses lately I just couldn't (and can't imagine how anyone could) take the under whatsoever against these two quarterbacks when the weather is decent.

Peyton Manning Playoffs:
O/U: 7-13-1 (35.0%) avg total: 47.4

Tom Brady Playoffs:
O/U: 11-14-0 (44.0%) avg total: 45.2

 

[brent_L]

Peyton Manning Playoffs:
O/U: 7-13-1 (35.0%) avg total: 47.4

Tom Brady Playoffs:
O/U: 11-14-0 (44.0%) avg total: 45.2

U don't think a lot of those games they each had better defences?? also weather with NE games most likely would have been worse than what they're expecting this Sunday.
Just reckon there may be better plays, but BOL anyways

 

[emkee]

 

[Marlo]

The touchdown dance

 

[scdoggy]

U don't think a lot of those games they each had better defences?? also weather with NE games most likely would have been worse than what they're expecting this Sunday.
Just reckon there may be better plays, but BOL anyways

Many of Mannings games were in a dome, where the weather is ideal. Oh, and he had a phenomenal offensive line, the second best receiver in NFL history, and a hall of fame RB and yet most of his playoff games have gone under.

 

[Jayhawk Nation]

Many of Mannings games were in a dome, where the weather is ideal. Oh, and he had a phenomenal offensive line, the second best receiver in NFL history, and a hall of fame RB and yet most of his playoff games have gone under.

Manning has also played against some pretty good defenses in most of his playoff games....

But I am just being contrarian, I lean to the under as well. Probably won't touch it in the end though.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Pats back to +6 at my shop. Weird. Brady sick, but that's the only news that's been released.

 

[scdoggy]

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. I don't understand this line opening so high and now going back up. I figured +3.5 to open and settle on +3.

The fact that this opened so high does make me a bit nervous about NE.

A proven playoff winner, and better coach taking on a playoff known choker, and a shaky coach. Someone knows something I don't about this one. I'm curious to hear what Denver backers are thinking regarding this game. I can't even make a case for how you could bet Denver here, but again - the fact that they opened this line so high does get me thinking....

 

[emkee]

The fact that this opened so high does make me a bit nervous about NE...

The whole reason why I didn't jump on the Pats early. These lines are that sharp, need to watch them dance a bit before buying them a drink and then going balls deep.

All the gambling types I know hit New England at the open, either way we get a pretty decent SB with whoever wins so I can't see another Niners v Panthers.

 

[austinhous]

don't service plays come out on Tuesday/Wednesday

 

[emkee]

Pats 13-7 ATS (11-9 SU) last 20 as a dog (2-2 ATS and SU as a dog of 4 or more).

Last time they were a dog of 4+ was 11/14/2010 at Pittsburgh (SNF), Pats won 39-26 as a 4.5 underdog (line opened at 5.5).

 

[scdoggy]

The whole reason why I didn't jump on the Pats early. These lines are that sharp, need to watch them dance a bit before buying them a drink and then going balls deep.

When I saw that NE +200 Sunday night, I just took the bitch out of the bar by the hair and drilled her in the alley. No romance for me.

 

[Coverdatspred]

When I saw that NE +200 Sunday night, I just took the bitch out of the bar by the hair and drilled her in the alley. No romance for me.

Me too. You can't convince me that the Pats are a 2-1 dog here. +200 has a ton of value. Especially if the Pats go up early and you can get some live Broncos at + money.

 

[austinhous]

Pats average 25.1 ppg in the playoffs at home and 26.7 ppg in the playoffs on the road. They score more points on the road than they do at home in the playoffs. It may seem trivial but I thought is was interesting.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. I don't understand this line opening so high and now going back up. I figured +3.5 to open and settle on +3.

The fact that this opened so high does make me a bit nervous about NE.

A proven playoff winner, and better coach taking on a playoff known choker, and a shaky coach. Someone knows something I don't about this one. I'm curious to hear what Denver backers are thinking regarding this game. I can't even make a case for how you could bet Denver here, but again - the fact that they opened this line so high does get me thinking....

I made this game 7 and 54 and the guy I usually swap with (1k normal, 2k if we are way different than each other) came up with pretty much the same. He got hit on the dog immediately, as well as a couple of others who i respect that will take a big bet. That said, there was sharp back on Denver yesterday and I was involved with that as well. For the first time, 18 has more talent than 12, and playing at home can only help. They ran for a jillion yards the first time as well. One more big key that I gleaned from watching film yesterday - the Pats TE played in the first game and is out for this one, and Denver's TE sat the first one and is playing in this one. Cannot overstate the importance of 18 having all his weapons in good weather against a Pats defense that is devoid of any playmakers.

This has been Belichick's best job ever in my mind, because their talent level is vastly inferior to Denver (and quite frankly, Diego, Cincinnati and about equal to Indianapolis).

 

[aplous]

Ya I dont think you can compare all the stats from Brady's playoff history with this team........yes they have had some teams without many weapons but they did have stacked defenses those years.

 

[nbafan88]

Temps forecasted for the low 60s in Denver

 

[nbafan88]

NE and Den combined for 79 rushes in first meeting.

The weather had a lot to do with that. If the conditions are good Peyton is going to pick the pats apart. And Brady is going to have to be aggressive

 

[cashflowmatters]

Yeah, I'm seeing that too. I don't understand this line opening so high and now going back up. I figured +3.5 to open and settle on +3.

The fact that this opened so high does make me a bit nervous about NE.

A proven playoff winner, and better coach taking on a playoff known choker, and a shaky coach. Someone knows something I don't about this one. I'm curious to hear what Denver backers are thinking regarding this game. I can't even make a case for how you could bet Denver here, but again - the fact that they opened this line so high does get me thinking....

61% of the public on NE & line is going the other way, what do you make of this?

 

[cashflowmatters]

I made this game 7 and 54 and the guy I usually swap with (1k normal, 2k if we are way different than each other) came up with pretty much the same. He got hit on the dog immediately, as well as a couple of others who i respect that will take a big bet. That said, there was sharp back on Denver yesterday and I was involved with that as well. For the first time, 18 has more talent than 12, and playing at home can only help. They ran for a jillion yards the first time as well. One more big key that I gleaned from watching film yesterday - the Pats TE played in the first game and is out for this one, and Denver's TE sat the first one and is playing in this one. Cannot overstate the importance of 18 having all his weapons in good weather against a Pats defense that is devoid of any playmakers.

This has been Belichick's best job ever in my mind, because their talent level is vastly inferior to Denver (and quite frankly, Diego, Cincinnati and about equal to Indianapolis).

I agree 100% Rex, gl on the action

 

[Marlo]

I made this game 7 and 54 and the guy I usually swap with (1k normal, 2k if we are way different than each other) came up with pretty much the same. He got hit on the dog immediately, as well as a couple of others who i respect that will take a big bet. That said, there was sharp back on Denver yesterday and I was involved with that as well. For the first time, 18 has more talent than 12, and playing at home can only help. They ran for a jillion yards the first time as well. One more big key that I gleaned from watching film yesterday - the Pats TE played in the first game and is out for this one, and Denver's TE sat the first one and is playing in this one. Cannot overstate the importance of 18 having all his weapons in good weather against a Pats defense that is devoid of any playmakers.

This has been Belichick's best job ever in my mind, because their talent level is vastly inferior to Denver (and quite frankly, Diego, Cincinnati and about equal to Indianapolis).

This is hugeeeeeee.

 

[Canes1]

61% of the public on NE & line is going the other way, what do you make of this?

Similar to Sf/Carolina game, Niners were a bigger public play and line had similar movement

 

[scdoggy]

I made this game 7 and 54 and the guy I usually swap with (1k normal, 2k if we are way different than each other) came up with pretty much the same. He got hit on the dog immediately, as well as a couple of others who i respect that will take a big bet. That said, there was sharp back on Denver yesterday and I was involved with that as well. For the first time, 18 has more talent than 12, and playing at home can only help. They ran for a jillion yards the first time as well. One more big key that I gleaned from watching film yesterday - the Pats TE played in the first game and is out for this one, and Denver's TE sat the first one and is playing in this one. Cannot overstate the importance of 18 having all his weapons in good weather against a Pats defense that is devoid of any playmakers.

This has been Belichick's best job ever in my mind, because their talent level is vastly inferior to Denver (and quite frankly, Diego, Cincinnati and about equal to Indianapolis).

Good to hear from you Rex, and thanks for weighing in. I couldn't disagree more with the bolded above though. You think Manning's Denver surrounding cast is better than his O line in Indy with Edge, Marvin Harrison, Wayne, Dallas Clark? He's almost always had a better surrounding cast than Brady....

 

[JumpOnBoard]

AFC Championship action report: Line mistake makes for one wild ride


By JASON LOGAN


Wednesday, January 15, 2014


There are two huge conference championship matchups on the NFL board this Sunday, with the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos battling for the AFC title, and the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks mixing it up for the NFC crown.


We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in the AFC Championship Game, the drastic line move that occurred shortly after posting this spread, and where he sees the line landing coming kickoff.


New England Patriots at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, Move: -4.5, Move: -5.5


The Brady vs. Manning media blitz was overshadowed – at least in the sports betting industry – by the massive line movement this spread saw once it hit the market. Books opened New England as high as a touchdown underdog after thumping Indianapolis in the Divisional Round and took instant action on the road team, pushing this spread as many as 2.5 points.


“We literally wrote 50 bets to zero bets at that number,” Stewart says of the touchdown opener and action on the Patriots. “No question, we hung a bad opening number because we saw nothing but one-way action.”


Stewart admits the spread was off but is baffled by how far bettors have driven this spread, and the amount on money on New England at the mid-week mark. He points out that the Broncos were double-digit favorites in six of their eight home games during the regular season and easily covered those single-digit home spreads versus Baltimore and Kansas City.


“Bottom line, this team has been dominant at home and while I admit we opened with a bad number of 7, all the money we booked on the Patriots is surprising to me and my crew,” he says. “We’ve gone from needing the Broncos’ opponent in every single game this year, to all of a sudden seeing everyone fading the Broncos here. It is amazing to me.”


Once the spread dropped to Denver –4.5, action started to show up on the home side. Stewart says sharp money came in Monday afternoon and commanded a move to Broncos -5. Another hit from wiseguys forced books to tack on a half point Wednesday morning.


“This is by far one of the more interesting games we’ve booked in recent memory, as the public is supporting the dog and the wiseguys are on the favorite,” Stewart tells Covers. “The public drove this number down and now the sharps are driving it back up. So far 75 percent of the action is on the Patriots and, while sharp money is on the favorite, I don’t think we’ll get back to -6 because of our exposure on the Patriots is already significant enough.”


The total for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game isn’t as volatile as the spread, but has seen its share of adjustments. The number opened 55 and with 70 percent of total wagers siding with the Over, the book has since moved to 56. But Stewart believes this line isn’t done moving yet and could see major sharp influence before Sunday’s game.


“I suspect the wiseguys are waiting for this total to go even higher and I expect their patience will pay off because we’re going to eventually get to 56.5 and maybe, maybe even 57 as we get closer to kickoff,” he says.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

@ToddFuhrman: The guys at @Sportsbook_com told me 81% of the tickets on #PatsvsBroncos coming in on New England, "All heavy public money drove price down"

 

[CollegeKingRex]

suckers betting NE at all the places down here also. Love it. Tons of value on Denver for me, way more than I expected.

Doggy - Yes, i believe NE had better overall teams, even if Indy was better at the skill positions. Remember that Manning hasn't lost a home game to Brady in the playoffs, as well (only played 1 because NE earned home field as the better team [as i mentioned above] in most of those years).

I think this Denver team, taking Manning away, is better than ANY of his Indy teams without him.

 

[scdoggy]

Book my ticket to Suckerville. Still can't see the Broncos winning.

I'll agree with you that the NE teams were better overall than the Indy ones, but not at the skill positions. My original comment was about the weapons Peyton has now vs. then, and its not even close on offense. I'm not sure this Denver defense is any better than the Indy ones either. Health this weekend brother.

Maybe I'll go down with the rest of the crew on the SS Sucker, but I don't see it here at all. I think the books made a bad number and I'm hitting the ML and the under hard.

 

[CollegeKingRex]

Don't worry, boss, I had Carolina against them all last week and got it up the ass there, as well (nevermind that Carolina's first 28 minutes were the most physically dominating I have seen out of any Niffel team in any game all year, bottom line is if you don't cash in your chances, a good team will eventually get its bearings and ram it up your ass, making your QB turn into a 6-year old crybaby on the sideline for the majority of the 2nd half). The Pats can surely win this game, regardless of what everyone bets. But Denver big here, so health...

:shake:

 

[KJ]

The SB that Indy did win was due to how ridiculous their defense stepped up that post season. This Denver defense shouldn't stand a chance against Brady if he even brings his B-game.

 

[scdoggy]

Don't worry, boss, I had Carolina against them all last week and got it up the ass there, as well (nevermind that Carolina's first 28 minutes were the most physically dominating I have seen out of any Niffel team in any game all year, bottom line is if you don't cash in your chances, a good team will eventually get its bearings and ram it up your ass, making your QB turn into a 6-year old crybaby on the sideline for the majority of the 2nd half). The Pats can surely win this game, regardless of what everyone bets. But Denver big here, so health...

:shake:

I feel like this weekend's NFC game is like Groundhog Day as I'm as conflicted as I was last week. Riding a +1000 9ers future and just hoping for a lead at halftime. Should be some great football this weekend.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

If Pats +7 was at any book early, I'd imagine sharp play would have hit that (not just "public" play, as mentioned above). Sharps holding +7 tickets probably bought back on Denver at -4.5.

 

[emkee]

Pats partial to the 'teams that score 40 or more in a playoff game are 3-22-2 ATS in the following playoff game' trend.

Haven't gone back to see how underdogs fare in this role although Indy were dogged in this scenario last week.

 

[nbafan88]

I think this Denver team, taking Manning away, is better than ANY of his Indy teams without him.

100% agree

 

[Retburj13]

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