Colts AT Ravens Playoff Discussion

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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens - AFC Wild Card Playoffs</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Sun 1/6[/TD]
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[TD]105 Indianapolis Colts[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_7" name="altS1_7" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+7 -125</option><option value="1">+6½ -105</option></select>[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +235 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o46 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]106 Baltimore Ravens[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_7" name="altS2_7" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-7 +105</option><option value="1">-6½ -115</option></select> [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -275 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4" maxlength="5" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u46 -110 [/TD]
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I don't really think either side is a great bet. I think Baltimores defense is old/slow and Indy should move the ball but I still think they can cause Luck to make a few big mistakes in this game. While Luck has exceeded expectations big time this year I still think he is a few years away from winning games like this on the road in the playoffs. If you back Indy you most likely will have a chance at the backdoor cover at the very worst. Main thing that scares me about backing Baltimore is how unified Indy seems to be this year. They really seem to have all the momentum in the world coming into playoffs with the Chuck story and all. I really just don't think they are that good (don't think Balt is either). If Baltimore actually gives Rice the rock the ball and has a balanced offense I like their offense against Indy D. Early weather conditions seem way better than you would expect this time of year in Baltimore. Maybe I am starting to talk myself into an over bet.
 
Both of these are over teams. I think the right way to play the game is to bet the Over. If it fails double the bet next week in either Denver or NE.
 
why? how can you hate ray lewis? i mean, theres that whole "he killed somebody" thing, but its not like thats a big deal or anything
 
sarcasm sharky. its absurd how ppl love ray lewis, and seem to think that its cool that he killed a guy because he plays super hard and yells and pumps up his team
 
I'm a steelers fan so obviously I agree with MCG. But I also agree 100% with what someone posted a few weeks ago that Roger G should try to hire him. I don't like him, but he has the respect of the other players - even the young gangsta types.
 
BTW - in his interview he said he can accept his time is up after this playoff run, but he also said he did not come back this season to go one and done in the playoffs. Ravens will play their asses off this weekend.
 
I think the Ravens dominate this game from start to finish. Flacco's led this team to 3 straight WC wins. This is a veteran team that struggled down the stretch, but showed up when it mattered (NYG) game. Ray Ray's announcing yesterday was pretty significant. Like him or not, he's been the leader of that team for years. That team will rally around him. The Colts have been a great story, I just dont think there ready for this kind of stage yet.
 
Marlo said:
I think the Ravens dominate this game from start to finish. Flacco's led this team to 3 straight WC wins. This is a veteran team that struggled down the stretch, but showed up when it mattered (NYG) game. Ray Ray's announcing yesterday was pretty significant. Like him or not, he's been the leader of that team for years. That team will rally around him. The Colts have been a great story, I just dont think there ready for this kind of stage yet.
Click to expand...

Agree with Marlo here. While I normally favor the dog with a 6.5 line, I think the vet team shows its stripes this weekend.
 
D-Woww said:
sarcasm sharky. its absurd how ppl love ray lewis, and seem to think that its cool that he killed a guy because he plays super hard and yells and pumps up his team
Click to expand...

he didnt kill anyone. wtf are you talking about?

He was charged with essentially a misdemeanor obstruction charge

but go ahead and label him "murderer"
 
he either killed someone and paid off the right ppl to take the fall & settle out of court, or he saw a murder and lied about it.
 
If Baltimore would wise up and run Ray Rice 2 out of every three plays - they would win this game easily.

Unfortunately I don't have confidence that they will. Forget the Ray Lewis announcement - I just don't see anything from this team right now that makes me think they are a TD better than any of the playoff teams. That being said, I'm not sure Indy has enough for me to want to pay to see them keep it close. Really tough slate of wild card games from a bettor's perspective. I think Green Bay face fucks Minny, but aside from that am having a hard time finding much to like this weekend.
 
Much better off waiting for the winner of this game set up a nice spot next week. Either fade Indy or back Baltimore rd 2
 
Fwiw, colts were 1-3 ats on the road in outdoor non division games this year. Losses to Chicago by 20, New England by 35, jets by 26, and covering at kc by a point or two depending when you got the line.
 
Popular sentiment may posit that the Ravens backed into the playoffs after dropping four of their last five games, but it's worth noting that they smoked the Giants 33-14 two weeks ago and rested starters in Week 17. And Baltimore is getting someone special back for the first round. While it's impossible to quantify the emotional boost from Wednesday's announcement of surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer Ray Lewis' impending retirement, his return is likely to have some effect on Sunday's game. Lewis will be on the field with his teammates -- back from an 11-week triceps injury -- and claims to be "100 percent" healthy. Lewis' skills appeared to be diminishing early in the year, but he should be a run-defense upgrade with fresh legs after the layoff. ... Schematically, Baltimore has an edge on Indianapolis from the standpoint that the Colts are a decidedly vertical-passing team and border on one dimensional in that respect. Playcaller Bruce Arians' system demands that Andrew Luck make a high volume of low-percentage downfield throws, which helps explain the still largely impressive rookie's unimpressive turnover count (23), completion rate (54.1), and QB rating (76.5). The Ravens happen to have a takeaway specialist in the back end of their defense in centerfield safety Ed Reed, who butters his bread by picking off vertical throws. Although 2012 was not Reed's best season, he still intercepted four passes and has a whopping eight picks in 11 career playoff games. Baltimore is a good bet to win Sunday's turnover battle.


Luck finished his first NFL season ranked fifth in pass attempts, and coach Chuck Pagano recently acknowledged that he's playing with a "tired arm." Both the national and local medias have been protective of the Golden Boy, so little was made of the comment. The numbers bear it out. Luck has completed just 78 of his last 168 passes (46.4 percent) for 1,012 yards (6.02 YPA). While he's compensated with a 4-1 record and 8:5 TD-to-INT ratio across that span, the sustainability of the latter two statistics is worth questioning. Luck could be exposed a bit by a rested Ravens defense that's especially likely to be high on energy in Lewis' return. ... Donnie Avery and dynamic rookie T.Y. Hilton are Indianapolis' purest vertical weapons, but Reggie Wayne is the sustainer on offense. A short-to-intermediate receiver at this stage of his career, 34-year-old Wayne finished the regular season ranked sixth in receptions (106), seventh in receiving yards (1,355), and fourth in first-down catches (73). It would be safe to expect Wayne to have a Wild Card game voluminous on targets and grabs. The Ravens must limit Indy's big plays in the passing game, however, and Reed should have a lot to do with it. ... A grinding, workmanlike runner, fifth-round rookie Vick Ballard is the Colts' every-down back. While Ballard is a suitable fit for Arians' power-running offense, he managed just four runs of 20-plus yards during the regular season, handling 211 rushing attempts. Among backs with at least 200 carries, only three (Shonn Greene, Mikel Leshoure, banged-up Trent Richardson) had fewer 20-yard gains. Ballard is capable of moving the chains as a complement to the passing game, but he's not quite a difference maker.


Joe Flacco's contract year didn't live up to expectations, but he did deliver Baltimore a fifth playoff berth in five seasons while posting a career-high 3,817 passing yards. Flacco was particularly sharp at home, where Sunday's Wild Card game will conveniently take place. In eight games at M&T Bank Stadium, Flacco completed 176-of-283 throws (62.2 percent) for 2,363 yards (8.35 YPA), and a 15:5 TD-to-INT ratio, with three additional touchdowns on the ground. The Colts rank 21st in pass defense and 24th in sacks, so this is a favorable matchup. ... Like Flacco, Torrey Smith opened the regular season piping hot only to fade in late fall and winter. Also like Flacco, Smith was much more productive at home, where he scored seven of his eight touchdowns and racked up 59.3 percent of his yards. Flacco would be smart to aggressively target Smith when matched up with burnable Colts left cornerback Cassius Vaughn. Baltimore needs to stay away from right corner Vontae Davis. ... Ravens slot receiver Anquan Boldin sat out Week 17 to rest a shoulder injury and practiced fully this week. Physical, 6-foot-1, 223-pound Boldin will spend most of Sunday's game in 5-foot-10, 185-pound Colts slot CB Darius Butler's coverage. Boldin turned 32 in October, but still paced Baltimore in 2012 targets, catches (65), and receiving yards (921).


Three players handle Baltimore's pass-catching load. No. 3 is tight end Dennis Pitta, coming off a breakout third NFL season. Though he lacks flashy measurables, Pitta dropped just three passes all year, securing 61 and reaching pay dirt seven times. Pitta is a reliable underneath target for Flacco, often picking up the slack when aging Boldin has down games. ... The star of Baltimore's Wild Card Round offense still figures to be do-it-all tailback Ray Rice, who closed out the regular season with 441 yards on his final 89 carries (4.96 YPC) and will be fresh after playing single-digit snaps in the Ravens' Week 17 rest game. Indianapolis ranks 29th against the run, serving up an AFC-most 5.14 yards per carry. No team in the NFL has allowed more running plays of 20-plus yards. If Rice touches the football 20 times in this game -- and he ought to -- the Ravens will win.


Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Colts 21
 
many fell that this is the whitewash of the weekend

one of these faves gonna roll...is it GB or Balty?
 
i really would stay away from the emotional hype in this one both teams have it . balti for ray ray and indy for coach p... either way both teams are goin to be emotional and hyped its the playoffs.. i would be curious to see the ravens defense versus rookie QBs at home.. if anyone has that stat i would love it.. i bet on Pitt earlier this year veruss the skins on that same stat regarding something like Dick Lebeau's defensive teams versus rookie quarterbacks and it was something close to undefeated or may have been... id love to see what the figure is for Ray Lewis defense teams versus Rookie QBs.. 7 points is alot for a playoff game for me however for these two teams i dont think its alot. Balti has played a far superior schedule and at home I think they are way tougher.. I really think the Denver game was a fluke. I am not a believer in Denver at all .,.anways they are tough at home, the city is ready and that place is goin to be pumped up, I feel like Luck will be pressured and I am not loving any of the threats they possess to effect Baltimores scheme at all. I do think it may go Over but thats only because I think Baltimore will drop 30+ on em. I am wondering if the line will dip below 7 but i doubt it so I may lock it in soon. either way im on Balti -7 and I think the only dog we may see win this first round is the Skins.
 
From the other day

@SportsInsights: The last time a playoff dog received 60% of the bets was the Giants in Superbowl 42 (2008). Colts (+7) currently receiving 67% of bets.
 
cmon how can you trust these% If you look around the boards there are a majority on the Ravens...not saying they don't cover, but I just don't think the #s are true
 
Tons of people I respect are on the ravens, but I just can't justify laying points with a a team that has lost 4 of 5 just because old ass Ray Lewis is back.
 
No. You're looking at it wrong. But ignorance is bliss.

Look im not going to try to advocate on why these percentages are accurate. I'm just here posting information because that's what forums are for. If you don't like. Don't fucking use it. Bottom line. I'm sick of all the bs. If you want to know why books give out the data, do the research for yourself. Google is your friend.
 
AFC Wild Card: Which side will record a HIGHER TOTAL?


Cold
Colts: Points from FGs + XPs 80.7%

@ Ravens: Winning Margin or Tie 19.3%
 
Thanks for posting NBA. You hit the nail on the head. This is the best way to share info - others can do with it what they will.
 
nbafan88 said:
No. You're looking at it wrong. But ignorance is bliss.

Look im not going to try to advocate on why these percentages are accurate. I'm just here posting information because that's what forums are for. If you don't like. Don't fucking use it. Bottom line. I'm sick of all the bs. If you want to know why books give out the data, do the research for yourself. Google is your friend.
Click to expand...

isn't the forum also for debating? I don't like it so I don't use it, but if it works for you go nuts. I can't state my opinion?





Anyway I think the Ravens defense is a shell of what it once was, and Ray may not make that much of a difference. How healthy is he? I think people are looking at this game as if it was the Ravens D of old, where Reed was bringing back picks for tds (1x this season in week one, 4 ints on the season with 1 in the last 6 games), and Ray was crushing rbs when they got through the dline. I don't think How can you argue that either team is more motivated? Luck throwing more ints on the road is a bit overblown as well given the Ravens haven't had a pick since week 13 vs Charlie Batch. Now all of a sudden the Ravens are a 99 on defense? nope
 
nbafan88 said:
No. You're looking at it wrong. But ignorance is bliss.

Look im not going to try to advocate on why these percentages are accurate. I'm just here posting information because that's what forums are for. If you don't like. Don't fucking use it. Bottom line. I'm sick of all the bs. If you want to know why books give out the data, do the research for yourself. Google is your friend.
Click to expand...

Don't take it personally dude. We all have opinions and we hash them out here. That's the beauty of this forum. No one called you an idiot or moron, just stated opinions on the info provided.
 
Oh no you can totally debate all you want.


But you cannot ask me how I can "trust these %s". If that was just a rhetorical remark thats fine. Obviously I trust them. Why else would I be paying for the service? It's just a silly comment.

Carry on..
 
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