College Ball Week 3

B

Blue_Chip

Money Addict
Alright, time to redeem myself after last weekend. Although I am just 2-2 on the season, I knew that I needed to change my decision process that determine the bets I place. I thought long and hard about my style of capping, and I think I am ready to hit games this week with a whole new level of confidence. I want to say thanks to the guys that have offered me insight (vegaskyle in particular), I really appreciate it. I want to especially thank tru for the discussions and teachings on the value of situations in college pigskin. If I do bad this weekend, it's all your fault. ;)

My new style of handicapping will include fundamental analysis along with situational handicapping. My new style will produce a majority of bets on dogs, but there will still be faves in the mix. I will have a six unit betting scale. Here goes nothing...

BYU -8.5 -110 5 units W
South Carolina +7 +100 5 units P
Georgia 2H -4.5 -105 5 units W
Purdue +7 +100 5 units W
LSU 1H -24 -105 5 units P
Mississippi State +10 -110 5 units W
Rice +8 -110 5 units L
Arkansas St -1.5 -110 3 units L

GL everyone
 
Last edited:
Your telling me out of all the plays on the board this is what you like best?

Disagree, but what's your reasoning
 
O-State said:
Your telling me out of all the plays on the board this is what you like best?

Disagree, but what's your reasoning
Click to expand...

Well, I seriously doubt we will look at the card and agree on what the best plays are, so I'm not sure where you are going with that comment. I'll post analysis on BYU and Fresno later this week. As for Arkansas State...

  • The Red Wolves are a good home team. They have only lost two or three home games in the last three years.
  • USM/ASU is usually a close game. A few years ago they played in a bowl game, and USM pulled away late for the victory. Last year, Ark St traveled to Hattiesburg to take on the Golden Eagles in The Rock. This game held big implications for USM, they needed to win this game to become bowl eligible. They pulled out a five-point win.
  • Ark St will have revenge and are playing at home, attempting to give this season a great start -- open with a win over Tx A&M on the road, beat down a D-AA school something like 83-10, and now get to extract revenge against a team that will be playing its second consecutive road game.
 
gl this week BC, a 2-2 start after 2 weeks isnt bad lots of time to go to keep shit goin right. u had a few tough breaks an both games ended close to tha numbers u got. not a fan of byu, but hope everyone u bet sofar cashes. get at me when u get on aim so we can go over a few things
 
Blue_Chip said:
Well, I seriously doubt we will look at the card and agree on what the best plays are, so I'm not sure where you are going with that comment. I'll post analysis on BYU and Fresno later this week. As for Arkansas State...
  • The Red Wolves are a good home team. They have only lost two or three home games in the last three years.
  • USM/ASU is usually a close game. A few years ago they played in a bowl game, and USM pulled away late for the victory. Last year, Ark St traveled to Hattiesburg to take on the Golden Eagles in The Rock. This game held big implications for USM, they needed to win this game to become bowl eligible. They pulled out a five-point win.
  • Ark St will have revenge and are playing at home, attempting to give this season a great start -- open with a win over Tx A&M on the road, beat down a D-AA school something like 83-10, and now get to extract revenge against a team that will be playing its second consecutive road game.
Click to expand...

I respectfully am surprised is the better word, these plays might be easy wins I know we all see different plays but I think most would see these as tossups.

I didn't see it earlier but I agree with Arkie State as a lean. I've been waiting to go against S Miss due to loss of entire dline and inexperience. Auburn didn't have the offense, but now I'm just not sure if Southern Miss is like Arizona and actually better.

I am pretty sure Arkie will run on them, that's a good matchup.

I lean Wisky, and Bruins but I'm probably gonna stay away your very good and are strong the other way.
 
Appreciate your thoughts, o-state.

I now see I could have gotten 8 on BYU, but it's locked in now so no need to look back. I think anywhere between 7-9 will fetch action on both sides. BYU has an experienced DL, but inexperienced LB's and DB's. Containing scrambling QB's poses a problem for BYU because the LB's can then not assist the DB's in coverage. Kraft cannot scramble like Locker so this is not a worry this week. I can see this as a letdown spot as well. The emotional win versus Tenn in Wk 1 with Wk 2 off. Put simply, BYU is the better team, and while that does not constitute an ATS win, I like the Cougars here.
 
Good luck; on BYU and Fresno State with you, and I think the Arkansas State play looks good too, but I will stay away from games involving Sun Belt, or maybe they should call it the Shade Belt, for all the shadiness that goes on.
 
I'll throw my hat in the ring. I also like BYU this week. This is a good spot for them, being at home after a hard fought victory. Not to mention, it is a pretty bad spot for UCLA, going on the road after pulling out an OT win against UT. Just my two cents.

BOL!
 
Since I am trying to avoid studying for the CFA, I will post what would have been my plays using my new system (or angle) so far this season.

Week 1 [2-1]
La Tech +7
Cal -5
Illinois +10

Week 2 [4-0]
Penn St -14.5
ECU +8
Nevada +10.5
Miami FL +23.5
 
Blue_Chip said:
Since I am trying to avoid studying for the CFA, I will post what would have been my plays using my new system (or angle) so far this season.

Week 1 [2-1]
La Tech +7
Cal -5
Illinois +10

Week 2 [4-0]
Penn St -14.5
ECU +8
Nevada +10.5
Miami FL +23.5
Click to expand...

nevada didnt win week 2 vs texas tech
 
Man I have been on all of those plays. If I could only throw out a couple of the losers that I had along with those, along with Nevada and Illinois.
 
Added LSU 1H. I give the reasoning in my LSU thread. Like Rex said, LSU names the score here. I stayed away from the full game bet because during his weekly radio show Miles said true freshman Jordan Jefferson will most likely play. With Auburn on deck and now knowing Crowton will not play Hatch and Lee the entire game, I think LSU is up by 35-40 at half then puts it on cruise control in the 2H (when the crowd will start leaving).
 
All plays locked in. Posting late because I have a leak in my kitchen ceiling and had to deal with that.

Looking for a 2H middle opportunity in the UGA-SC game.
 
RambleOn said:
Miss St? Ouch. I took Auburn. :(
Click to expand...

Double-digit dog in SEC play that is not Miss St vs LSU... I have to bet it. Auburn looking ahead to LSU. Do you realize the winner of the LSU-Auburn game has been the SEC West champ 7 of the last 8 seasons I think it is? Next week's game carries plenty of weight, but Auburn has to get through Miss St while LSU gets North Texas. Although, LSU has not won at Jordan Hare since like 1992 or 95, some date when I was still in elementary school. Dixon has a tough task since Auburn will likely stacked the box and force Carroll to beat them, but at the same time Miss St's defense should give AU's new offensive system a tough test.
 
LSU is in for a looooooooong season with that piss-poor first half showing against the worst defense in D1. Thankfully the last-second FG gave me the push.

Absolutely fucking pitiful!

I missed betting the under in the Auburn-Miss St game tonight, and I obviously am kicking myself as I watch a 3-0 game head to the 4Q. I will not let next week get by...

I endorse an under bet in the LSU-Auburn game as long as the total is set above 20.

I'm dead serious. An accurate total might be 9.
 
4-2-2 Profitable weekend

All statistics pointed against Rice, yet I applied too much subjectively analysis. Thanks for the slap across the face Vandy, I will not make this mistake again.

Arkansas St was my smallest play and it lost. I should take a hint. I felt the least confident in this play, hence every play was 5 units except this. Learn and move on...

I'm lucky to push on my LSU bet, and I could have won that SC bet if I could have found a 7.5 somewhere. Oh well...

I squeezed a profit, I am regretting selling my Fresno position, onto tomorrow in niffel and next week in college pigskin.

Hope everyone had a profitable weekend
 
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