NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 3: Don't Listen to James Harden's Doubters
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Key Trend
Coaching decisions are proving to be a valuable asset in this series, which might seem unsurprising given Denver's puzzling decision to fire its head coach right before the postseason began.
For the Clippers, Tyronn Lue is proving to be a good coach in that he has made a key adjustment to his lineup that helps his team on both offense and defense.
It is this sort of thing that will help him prolong the following trend: he is 4-0 in his coaching career in Game 7s.
Denver backers will want to point out trends that suggest that the Clippers will lose Game 7. These opposing trends revolve around the reputation that James Harden has for underperforming late in a given series, which attests to the success with which defenses adjust to Harden over the course of a longer series.
My argument is that the Lue Game 7 trend trumps any doubt that one might have about Harden because, as Game 6 in this series has shown, Lue is able to put Harden in a position to succeed that negates the defense's ability to adjust to Harden.
The Big Change
Lue's big adjustment was to replace Kris Dunn with Nicolas Batum in the starting lineup.
In doing so, he replaced a player whose three-point shooting ability the defense did not respect with someone who converted 43.3 percent of his three-point attempts in the regular season.
In addition to bringing versatility on defense, as evident in his ability to guard both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Batum brings improved floor-spacing on offense.
Defenders could allow Dunn to shoot threes and were willing to leave him alone behind the arc. They left him to help Harden's defender.
Harden, with Dunn on the floor, has lacked operating room for himself because he has to deal with extra attention from the defense.
Lue's ability to give Harden the operating room he needs allowed him to thrive in Game 6, where he amassed 28 points and eight assists.
Addressing the Harden Doubters
If Harden were simply a choker, then his team would always lose late in a given series.
Last year against Dallas, he did struggle late in the series. However, to say that this struggle forms evidence that his abilities magically dissipate late in a series creates a false picture of reality.
In reality, Dallas' head coach deserves credit for having tinkered throughout that series with the way in which his defense guarded Harden particularly in the interior.
Because Harden has had coaches do a better job putting him in a position to succeed, he has had series where he thrived late. Three postseasons ago, as a 76er, he scored 22 points in Game 6 against Toronto and was efficient in Game 6 against Miami.
Overall, Harden's career scoring average in Game 7 actually resembles his regular season scoring average this year — his doubters, I'm sure, expected the former to be much lower.
Tonight, thanks to Lue, he is going to have a great game both as a scorer and as a facilitator.
Denver's Poor Bench
Denver wants its bench to attain a level of success that will take away the onus on its best players to outperform Harden and the other best players of the Clippers.
The Clippers have a clear bench advantage in this series because Denver's front office, more than simply making the questionable decision to fire their head coach right before the postseason, has also done a terrible job of selecting or developing young players.
Denver planned to acquire players who would be ready to be real contributors by now. Peyton Watson, for example, was a recent first-round selection. He is averaging all of 3.7 points per game in this series. Zeke Nnaji, a first-round pick in 2020, and Hunter Tyson, a second-round pick in 2023, provide further proof of Denver's draft-day incompetence.
Whereas the Nuggets lean on disappointing players on their bench, the Clippers have Derrick Jones Jr., who contributed well to Dallas' Finals run last year, and efficient shooter Bogdan Bogdanovic.
They are able to keep scoring when their best players are resting, whereas Denver is statistically awful when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.
The Importance of Ivica Zubac
Denver needs its best player to thrive to help offset the deficiency of its bench.
However, the Clippers have a great antidote for Jokic in the form of Ivica Zubac.
Zubac is able to hold Jokic to a 45-percent conversion rate in this series.
With Jokic unable to dominate over the course of a game — he converted, for example, two of nine field goal attempts in the second half in Game 6 — Denver lacks the firepower to keep pace with the Clippers.
To add to this point, the Clippers' ability to lean on Zubac's defense positions them to turn Jokic into a scorer by guarding him only with Zubac and by using their other defenders to undermine Jokic's ability to find his teammates.
Doing this helps the Clippers' offense in that it allows the Clippers to keep their best players fresher.
Game 6 Was Not That Close
The Nuggets did "only" lose by six points in Game 6.
However, the final score does not reflect how much better the Clippers were, because they parked the bus early and, altering their style of play to play a prevent offense, lost their rhythm and enabled Denver to reduce its deficit.
Batum's injection into the lineup ensures the positiveness of their offense's outlook tonight, as Leonard, too, benefits from the better spacing.
On defense, not only is Zubac valuable, but also the defense does a great job of speeding up the Nuggets' offense. In Game 6, the Clippers accumulated nine steals and won the turnover battle.
Game 7 won't be close, either, when the Clippers shoot better. In Game 6, they missed 15 wide-open threes.
Their defense will be even better when it avoids conceding avoidable easy put-backs.
Best Bet: Clippers ML at +105 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Denver Nuggets
Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Key Trend
Coaching decisions are proving to be a valuable asset in this series, which might seem unsurprising given Denver's puzzling decision to fire its head coach right before the postseason began.
For the Clippers, Tyronn Lue is proving to be a good coach in that he has made a key adjustment to his lineup that helps his team on both offense and defense.
It is this sort of thing that will help him prolong the following trend: he is 4-0 in his coaching career in Game 7s.
Denver backers will want to point out trends that suggest that the Clippers will lose Game 7. These opposing trends revolve around the reputation that James Harden has for underperforming late in a given series, which attests to the success with which defenses adjust to Harden over the course of a longer series.
My argument is that the Lue Game 7 trend trumps any doubt that one might have about Harden because, as Game 6 in this series has shown, Lue is able to put Harden in a position to succeed that negates the defense's ability to adjust to Harden.
The Big Change
Lue's big adjustment was to replace Kris Dunn with Nicolas Batum in the starting lineup.
In doing so, he replaced a player whose three-point shooting ability the defense did not respect with someone who converted 43.3 percent of his three-point attempts in the regular season.
In addition to bringing versatility on defense, as evident in his ability to guard both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Batum brings improved floor-spacing on offense.
Defenders could allow Dunn to shoot threes and were willing to leave him alone behind the arc. They left him to help Harden's defender.
Harden, with Dunn on the floor, has lacked operating room for himself because he has to deal with extra attention from the defense.
Lue's ability to give Harden the operating room he needs allowed him to thrive in Game 6, where he amassed 28 points and eight assists.
Addressing the Harden Doubters
If Harden were simply a choker, then his team would always lose late in a given series.
Last year against Dallas, he did struggle late in the series. However, to say that this struggle forms evidence that his abilities magically dissipate late in a series creates a false picture of reality.
In reality, Dallas' head coach deserves credit for having tinkered throughout that series with the way in which his defense guarded Harden particularly in the interior.
Because Harden has had coaches do a better job putting him in a position to succeed, he has had series where he thrived late. Three postseasons ago, as a 76er, he scored 22 points in Game 6 against Toronto and was efficient in Game 6 against Miami.
Overall, Harden's career scoring average in Game 7 actually resembles his regular season scoring average this year — his doubters, I'm sure, expected the former to be much lower.
Tonight, thanks to Lue, he is going to have a great game both as a scorer and as a facilitator.
Denver's Poor Bench
Denver wants its bench to attain a level of success that will take away the onus on its best players to outperform Harden and the other best players of the Clippers.
The Clippers have a clear bench advantage in this series because Denver's front office, more than simply making the questionable decision to fire their head coach right before the postseason, has also done a terrible job of selecting or developing young players.
Denver planned to acquire players who would be ready to be real contributors by now. Peyton Watson, for example, was a recent first-round selection. He is averaging all of 3.7 points per game in this series. Zeke Nnaji, a first-round pick in 2020, and Hunter Tyson, a second-round pick in 2023, provide further proof of Denver's draft-day incompetence.
Whereas the Nuggets lean on disappointing players on their bench, the Clippers have Derrick Jones Jr., who contributed well to Dallas' Finals run last year, and efficient shooter Bogdan Bogdanovic.
They are able to keep scoring when their best players are resting, whereas Denver is statistically awful when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.
The Importance of Ivica Zubac
Denver needs its best player to thrive to help offset the deficiency of its bench.
However, the Clippers have a great antidote for Jokic in the form of Ivica Zubac.
Zubac is able to hold Jokic to a 45-percent conversion rate in this series.
With Jokic unable to dominate over the course of a game — he converted, for example, two of nine field goal attempts in the second half in Game 6 — Denver lacks the firepower to keep pace with the Clippers.
To add to this point, the Clippers' ability to lean on Zubac's defense positions them to turn Jokic into a scorer by guarding him only with Zubac and by using their other defenders to undermine Jokic's ability to find his teammates.
Doing this helps the Clippers' offense in that it allows the Clippers to keep their best players fresher.
Game 6 Was Not That Close
The Nuggets did "only" lose by six points in Game 6.
However, the final score does not reflect how much better the Clippers were, because they parked the bus early and, altering their style of play to play a prevent offense, lost their rhythm and enabled Denver to reduce its deficit.
Batum's injection into the lineup ensures the positiveness of their offense's outlook tonight, as Leonard, too, benefits from the better spacing.
On defense, not only is Zubac valuable, but also the defense does a great job of speeding up the Nuggets' offense. In Game 6, the Clippers accumulated nine steals and won the turnover battle.
Game 7 won't be close, either, when the Clippers shoot better. In Game 6, they missed 15 wide-open threes.
Their defense will be even better when it avoids conceding avoidable easy put-backs.
Best Bet: Clippers ML at +105 with BetOnline
