Thunder vs. Nuggets NBA Playoffs Game 3 Best Bets: Denver Looks Golden Tonight
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Friday, May 9, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
What Happened in Game 2
In Game 2, the Thunder blew out Denver.
We are seeing, from bettors, the same response as when the Clippers blow out Denver in Game 3 of the first round.
Folks had no doubt that the Clippers were going to go on to win that series.
It is, at this moment, even easier to count out the Nuggets in this series because we just witnessed the extent of Oklahoma City's firepower.
Sure, the Thunder can get really hot on offense. Last round, for example, they scored 131 points in a Game 1 victory over Memphis.
In Game 2 against Denver, they had additional help from the refs — Nuggets players but also neutral watchers articulated observations of this help. Denver's players also played with visible frustration, which led to poor outputs of effort and resulted in more points for the Thunder.
Refs allowed OKC's defenders to be extra physical with Denver's most important player Nikola Jokic. OKC's superstar, on the other hand, received a very friendly whistle.
While the Thunder are evidently capable of dominating their opponent, recall what happened in the rest of their first series against Memphis.
Yes, they won a game by 51, but in Game 3 they were tied with Memphis with a minute to go after the Grizzlies lost their best player. The Thunder then won Game 4 by all of two points.
There is a difference between a team having a high ceiling and a team being consistently dominant. The Thunder arguably have a higher ceiling than Denver, but one can't assume that they will win every game going forward in this series by a clear margin.
Professionals Will Respond
With their superior experience, the Nuggets have been in this situation before where they had to respond to a blowout loss. Like the Memphis team that matches up terribly against a Thunder
squad that even dismantled it in four regular season games, Denver must, can, and will respond well to OKC's self-assertive Game 2 performance.
In this postseason, NBA players have shown their ability to improve their performance with decisive results when they have a chip on their shoulder.
My go-to example here is Steph Curry responding to the success Houston defender Amen Thompson had in locking him down by going off for 31 points in Game 1 of their series.
These are professional players who have pride and who respond to setbacks. After the Thunder responded to Denver's Game 1 win, it is Denver's turn to respond to OKC's Game 2 blowout.
Denver's Historical Response Tendencies
In recent postseason play, the Nuggets have demonstrated a superb ability to respond to blowout losses.
After the Clippers beat them 117-83 in Game 3 of the first round, Denver won Game 4 101-99.
Last year, they gave up 119 points in an eleven-point loss to the Lakers before holding the Lakers to 106 points in a two-point Game 5 win.
Moreover, in Game 2 of their following series against Minnesota, they lost by 26 points before, in Game 3, beating the Timberwolves 117-90.
At the end of a long series, they ran out of steam with their perpetually short bench, but they still held Minnesota to 98 points in Game 7 after losing Game 6 115-70.
Given this history, one must expect their defense to play as well as it can.
Thunder on the Road
A still rather young OKC team has yet to really learn how to thrive on the road to the extent that it succeeds at home.
Their two lowest-scoring offensive outputs in the first round came in Memphis.
They suffered similar setbacks, in last year's postseason, in New Orleans and in Dallas.
The Thunder are already set to decline after their explosive scoring output. Teams generally suffer a dramatic decline after scoring a ridiculous amount of points — this is also true in baseball after a team scores ten or more runs.
OKC, for example, scored 141 points on March 21 against the Hornets before scoring 103 points in their following game against the Clippers.
On the road in the postseason, OKC's offensive decline will be even more dramatic.
Denver's Defensive Personnel
The Nuggets are determined to increase their physicality, which they'll be able to do with a home whistle. This physicality will influence their ability to improve their defensive performance tonight against OKC's scorers.
Most importantly, they have a good mixture of versatile defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Christian Braun and, even more so, Aaron Gordon both have good length. Gordon is known for his physicality and his athleticism. Braun is known for his quicker hands and superior foot speed.
Denver's prolongation of its tendency to thrive defensively after a blowout is not going to come out of nowhere and it won't simply come from the Thunder not playing as well. The Nuggets have good defensive personnel and the ability to inhibit OKC's offensive centerpiece Gilgeous-Alexander from playing too well.
OKC's Vulnerability to Guards
On defense, the Thunder will be vulnerable to Denver's collection of guards.
Just before the postseason, Phoenix's Bradley Beal scored 25 points against the Thunder.
In the first round, Memphis' lesser-known player Scotty Pippen Jr. shined with 28 points in Game 3 and 30 points in Game 4.
Denver's guards are going to have big performances in this series. Tonight is the perfect spot for them since they are fresh and at home after their blowout loss.
Braun, who averaged 15.4 points per game in the regular season with his superb efficiency both at the basket and behind the arc, will play a big role.
It is also time for Jamal Murray to get going. Yes, Luguentz Dort is a great perimeter defender, but Denver has other ball-handlers alongside Murray and can have the latter execute off-ball movement and use screens in order to free himself. His off-ball movement is extremely difficult to guard especially given Jokic's characteristically elite passing ability.
Jokic and Company
Gordon scored 22 points in Game 1, showing his capability to flourish against the Thunder.
Jokic is a perennial MVP candidate who will respond the best to a bad loss and to a poor output against a tough opponent, as when he defied the success that Ivica Zubac had against him for the Clippers by scoring 36 points in Game 4. Expect Denver's superstar to take over tonight.
As his player odds suggest, people are too down on Michael Porter Jr. Yes, he sustained an injury in Game 2 against the Clippers. But he can still shoot. In that series, he made at least three threes in Games 4, 5, and 7.
He attempted eight threes in Game 2 of this series because he still has confidence in his shot. As someone who annually converts 39 or 40 percent of his three-point shots, he is too good to keep missing so many threes.
Russell Westbrook is averaging 18.5 points per game in this series and has been playing at a higher level since Game 5 of the first round.
Takeaway
The Thunder will decline on the road. Denver will respond well to its blowout loss. Expect Jokic to take over, his supporting cast to step up, and Denver's defense to thrive.
Best Bet: Nuggets +5.5 at -110 with Bovada; Thunder under 118.5 total points at -115 with Bovada; Michael Porter Jr. to make 3+ threes at +180 with Bovada
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Friday, May 9, 2025 at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
What Happened in Game 2
In Game 2, the Thunder blew out Denver.
We are seeing, from bettors, the same response as when the Clippers blow out Denver in Game 3 of the first round.
Folks had no doubt that the Clippers were going to go on to win that series.
It is, at this moment, even easier to count out the Nuggets in this series because we just witnessed the extent of Oklahoma City's firepower.
Sure, the Thunder can get really hot on offense. Last round, for example, they scored 131 points in a Game 1 victory over Memphis.
In Game 2 against Denver, they had additional help from the refs — Nuggets players but also neutral watchers articulated observations of this help. Denver's players also played with visible frustration, which led to poor outputs of effort and resulted in more points for the Thunder.
Refs allowed OKC's defenders to be extra physical with Denver's most important player Nikola Jokic. OKC's superstar, on the other hand, received a very friendly whistle.
While the Thunder are evidently capable of dominating their opponent, recall what happened in the rest of their first series against Memphis.
Yes, they won a game by 51, but in Game 3 they were tied with Memphis with a minute to go after the Grizzlies lost their best player. The Thunder then won Game 4 by all of two points.
There is a difference between a team having a high ceiling and a team being consistently dominant. The Thunder arguably have a higher ceiling than Denver, but one can't assume that they will win every game going forward in this series by a clear margin.
Professionals Will Respond
With their superior experience, the Nuggets have been in this situation before where they had to respond to a blowout loss. Like the Memphis team that matches up terribly against a Thunder
squad that even dismantled it in four regular season games, Denver must, can, and will respond well to OKC's self-assertive Game 2 performance.
In this postseason, NBA players have shown their ability to improve their performance with decisive results when they have a chip on their shoulder.
My go-to example here is Steph Curry responding to the success Houston defender Amen Thompson had in locking him down by going off for 31 points in Game 1 of their series.
These are professional players who have pride and who respond to setbacks. After the Thunder responded to Denver's Game 1 win, it is Denver's turn to respond to OKC's Game 2 blowout.
Denver's Historical Response Tendencies
In recent postseason play, the Nuggets have demonstrated a superb ability to respond to blowout losses.
After the Clippers beat them 117-83 in Game 3 of the first round, Denver won Game 4 101-99.
Last year, they gave up 119 points in an eleven-point loss to the Lakers before holding the Lakers to 106 points in a two-point Game 5 win.
Moreover, in Game 2 of their following series against Minnesota, they lost by 26 points before, in Game 3, beating the Timberwolves 117-90.
At the end of a long series, they ran out of steam with their perpetually short bench, but they still held Minnesota to 98 points in Game 7 after losing Game 6 115-70.
Given this history, one must expect their defense to play as well as it can.
Thunder on the Road
A still rather young OKC team has yet to really learn how to thrive on the road to the extent that it succeeds at home.
Their two lowest-scoring offensive outputs in the first round came in Memphis.
They suffered similar setbacks, in last year's postseason, in New Orleans and in Dallas.
The Thunder are already set to decline after their explosive scoring output. Teams generally suffer a dramatic decline after scoring a ridiculous amount of points — this is also true in baseball after a team scores ten or more runs.
OKC, for example, scored 141 points on March 21 against the Hornets before scoring 103 points in their following game against the Clippers.
On the road in the postseason, OKC's offensive decline will be even more dramatic.
Denver's Defensive Personnel
The Nuggets are determined to increase their physicality, which they'll be able to do with a home whistle. This physicality will influence their ability to improve their defensive performance tonight against OKC's scorers.
Most importantly, they have a good mixture of versatile defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Christian Braun and, even more so, Aaron Gordon both have good length. Gordon is known for his physicality and his athleticism. Braun is known for his quicker hands and superior foot speed.
Denver's prolongation of its tendency to thrive defensively after a blowout is not going to come out of nowhere and it won't simply come from the Thunder not playing as well. The Nuggets have good defensive personnel and the ability to inhibit OKC's offensive centerpiece Gilgeous-Alexander from playing too well.
OKC's Vulnerability to Guards
On defense, the Thunder will be vulnerable to Denver's collection of guards.
Just before the postseason, Phoenix's Bradley Beal scored 25 points against the Thunder.
In the first round, Memphis' lesser-known player Scotty Pippen Jr. shined with 28 points in Game 3 and 30 points in Game 4.
Denver's guards are going to have big performances in this series. Tonight is the perfect spot for them since they are fresh and at home after their blowout loss.
Braun, who averaged 15.4 points per game in the regular season with his superb efficiency both at the basket and behind the arc, will play a big role.
It is also time for Jamal Murray to get going. Yes, Luguentz Dort is a great perimeter defender, but Denver has other ball-handlers alongside Murray and can have the latter execute off-ball movement and use screens in order to free himself. His off-ball movement is extremely difficult to guard especially given Jokic's characteristically elite passing ability.
Jokic and Company
Gordon scored 22 points in Game 1, showing his capability to flourish against the Thunder.
Jokic is a perennial MVP candidate who will respond the best to a bad loss and to a poor output against a tough opponent, as when he defied the success that Ivica Zubac had against him for the Clippers by scoring 36 points in Game 4. Expect Denver's superstar to take over tonight.
As his player odds suggest, people are too down on Michael Porter Jr. Yes, he sustained an injury in Game 2 against the Clippers. But he can still shoot. In that series, he made at least three threes in Games 4, 5, and 7.
He attempted eight threes in Game 2 of this series because he still has confidence in his shot. As someone who annually converts 39 or 40 percent of his three-point shots, he is too good to keep missing so many threes.
Russell Westbrook is averaging 18.5 points per game in this series and has been playing at a higher level since Game 5 of the first round.
Takeaway
The Thunder will decline on the road. Denver will respond well to its blowout loss. Expect Jokic to take over, his supporting cast to step up, and Denver's defense to thrive.
Best Bet: Nuggets +5.5 at -110 with Bovada; Thunder under 118.5 total points at -115 with Bovada; Michael Porter Jr. to make 3+ threes at +180 with Bovada
