BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
[I'll edit in the stats later, but Cleveland's current run is has a couple of aspects to it which indicate their continued managing of such feats is statistically negligible].
Cleveland's current (& now with the Toronto result in the books) 9 game ATS cover streak is, on it's most basic level, nothing too much out of the extraordinary. Sure teams don't put up such ATS streaks every other month, but it's not like they're as rare as hens teeth: last season alone saw 4 ATS streaks of 9, 10, 12 & 13 games in length registered. Starting a chase to see in the end of Cleveland's streak simply on the basis of their having successfully covered 8 straight before playing Toronto would not, in a historically statistical context, be a solid move.
But Cleveland's ATS streak is a little more unusual than most sizable ones, from 2 angles -
Domination by the Favourite
This angle has a couple of aspects to it.
Firstly, Cleveland has covered every game in their current streak as a Favourite. In recent seasons I see a number of teams who covered 9 & 10 consecutive games as a Favourite - importantly thou, most not consecutively played. The team concerned being made a Dog for a game or 2 inbetween the games they were a Fav, and more often than not losing that game ATS thereby getting a letdown effort out of the way when such an effort didn't interfere with their Fav ATS run in play. In other words, it's hard enough managing such a feat while "catching the break" of being made a Dog a time or 2, let alone doing it in an unbroken manner. Very rare is the double-digit sequence ATS run without the team concerned putting up some ATS covers within it as a Dog. To go back to the streaks I mentioned from last season above, the 13 game run incl. 7 Dog covers, the 12 game run incl. 2 Dog covers, the 10 game run incl. 1 Dog cover, and the 9 game run incl. 2 Dog covers.
It's plain to see looking at Cleveland's coming schedule that they're not about to be made a Dog anytime soon, meaning this streak of their's will be breaking some hefty statistical barriers if it's maintained even a short while longer.
Secondly, Cleveland's last 13 games have all been covered by the Favourite. Prior to their current 9 game streak, they lost to Detroit ATS when they were a Dog, and prior to that contest had a successful 3 game ATS run as a Fav. The longest run of Fav ATS results I have in my records from recent seasons is 13 games, something the Cavs just matched with their result over Toronto.
Beyond this stat fact, is the reality that only Denver (Fav 15-6 ATS) comes close to having had the Favourite dominate their games ATS to such a degree as in Cleveland has (Fav 17-4 ATS) this season (yep, if you blindly played the Fav in every one of these 2 teams games, you'd sport a 32-10 record thus far in the 08-09 season). The 2 teams performing at a similar SU level as Cleveland - Boston (Fav 10-12 ATS) & LA (Fav 11-8 ATS) - have had the Fav do nowhere near as well. From that comes the observation, the linesmakers have got their handle on those 2 public darling teams, how much longer do you think they're going to allow Cleveland to roam free (now this present run of theirs is reminding everyone they went to the Finals 2 seasons back, a season in which, btw, they put up a 10 game ATS win streak which was followed by a 3-8-1 ATS run)?
Excessive nature of winning margins
I learnt early on that the critical split for NBA margins is 1-8 points, and 9+ points. Since the 02-03 season, the following is the break down for teams streaks of winning games SU by 9+ point margins...
* - inlcudes Cleveland's current live streak.
One can immediately see that again Cleveland has entered rarified air by managing what they have to this point with their current 9 game SU win streak.
The relevance this has to any chase consideration is they're not about to be much less of a Fav than 6-8 points for the game in Philly (a team destroyed in their last 3 home games by 9+ pt margins vs Chicago, LA & New Jersey: given Cleveland's form, why couldn't they be perceived to do any less? however, it must be observed Philly did this line no favours by beating Detroit, but at least Washington did the same to make such a feat seem not really such a big deal), meaning a cover in that game will in all likelihood require from them yet another 9+ points margin win, and then a rematch in Cleveland with a line approaching 11-13 pts in that fixture will require another such margin win for a successful ATS result.
Then they go to Atlanta for a 4th in 5 which, if it included 2 x 9+ point SU & ATS wins over Philly H & A, would see Atlanta catching more than a few since they themselves coming off a decent road trip & on a B2B would simply play into the perception every ball was in Cleveland's court.
The probability Cleveland manages 4 straight 9+ point wins in their 4 in 5 sequence (with the 1st vs Toronto already in the books) when they already bring 8 straight such results to it to begin with, is just simply statistically negligible (and while the Cavs opponents to this point have largely sucked fat ones, Philly & Atlanta sport winning percentages superior to them all). The point here being the moment they win a game by 8 pts or less, it's all but going to be an ATS loss (as a Fav) on their part.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The length of any chase I usually like to keep at 3 games, but here it's potentially 4. So the starting bet is lower than usual.
Toronto +12.5 to win 100.
Also parlayed with Houston Under 191.5, and NYI/PHI Under 5.5
Cleveland's current (& now with the Toronto result in the books) 9 game ATS cover streak is, on it's most basic level, nothing too much out of the extraordinary. Sure teams don't put up such ATS streaks every other month, but it's not like they're as rare as hens teeth: last season alone saw 4 ATS streaks of 9, 10, 12 & 13 games in length registered. Starting a chase to see in the end of Cleveland's streak simply on the basis of their having successfully covered 8 straight before playing Toronto would not, in a historically statistical context, be a solid move.
But Cleveland's ATS streak is a little more unusual than most sizable ones, from 2 angles -
Domination by the Favourite
This angle has a couple of aspects to it.
Firstly, Cleveland has covered every game in their current streak as a Favourite. In recent seasons I see a number of teams who covered 9 & 10 consecutive games as a Favourite - importantly thou, most not consecutively played. The team concerned being made a Dog for a game or 2 inbetween the games they were a Fav, and more often than not losing that game ATS thereby getting a letdown effort out of the way when such an effort didn't interfere with their Fav ATS run in play. In other words, it's hard enough managing such a feat while "catching the break" of being made a Dog a time or 2, let alone doing it in an unbroken manner. Very rare is the double-digit sequence ATS run without the team concerned putting up some ATS covers within it as a Dog. To go back to the streaks I mentioned from last season above, the 13 game run incl. 7 Dog covers, the 12 game run incl. 2 Dog covers, the 10 game run incl. 1 Dog cover, and the 9 game run incl. 2 Dog covers.
It's plain to see looking at Cleveland's coming schedule that they're not about to be made a Dog anytime soon, meaning this streak of their's will be breaking some hefty statistical barriers if it's maintained even a short while longer.
Secondly, Cleveland's last 13 games have all been covered by the Favourite. Prior to their current 9 game streak, they lost to Detroit ATS when they were a Dog, and prior to that contest had a successful 3 game ATS run as a Fav. The longest run of Fav ATS results I have in my records from recent seasons is 13 games, something the Cavs just matched with their result over Toronto.
Beyond this stat fact, is the reality that only Denver (Fav 15-6 ATS) comes close to having had the Favourite dominate their games ATS to such a degree as in Cleveland has (Fav 17-4 ATS) this season (yep, if you blindly played the Fav in every one of these 2 teams games, you'd sport a 32-10 record thus far in the 08-09 season). The 2 teams performing at a similar SU level as Cleveland - Boston (Fav 10-12 ATS) & LA (Fav 11-8 ATS) - have had the Fav do nowhere near as well. From that comes the observation, the linesmakers have got their handle on those 2 public darling teams, how much longer do you think they're going to allow Cleveland to roam free (now this present run of theirs is reminding everyone they went to the Finals 2 seasons back, a season in which, btw, they put up a 10 game ATS win streak which was followed by a 3-8-1 ATS run)?
Excessive nature of winning margins
I learnt early on that the critical split for NBA margins is 1-8 points, and 9+ points. Since the 02-03 season, the following is the break down for teams streaks of winning games SU by 9+ point margins...
5 games ....... 24 times
6 games ........ 8 times
7 games ........ 2 times
8 games ........ 1 time
9 games ........ 2 times*
10 games ...... 1 time
6 games ........ 8 times
7 games ........ 2 times
8 games ........ 1 time
9 games ........ 2 times*
10 games ...... 1 time
* - inlcudes Cleveland's current live streak.
One can immediately see that again Cleveland has entered rarified air by managing what they have to this point with their current 9 game SU win streak.
The relevance this has to any chase consideration is they're not about to be much less of a Fav than 6-8 points for the game in Philly (a team destroyed in their last 3 home games by 9+ pt margins vs Chicago, LA & New Jersey: given Cleveland's form, why couldn't they be perceived to do any less? however, it must be observed Philly did this line no favours by beating Detroit, but at least Washington did the same to make such a feat seem not really such a big deal), meaning a cover in that game will in all likelihood require from them yet another 9+ points margin win, and then a rematch in Cleveland with a line approaching 11-13 pts in that fixture will require another such margin win for a successful ATS result.
Then they go to Atlanta for a 4th in 5 which, if it included 2 x 9+ point SU & ATS wins over Philly H & A, would see Atlanta catching more than a few since they themselves coming off a decent road trip & on a B2B would simply play into the perception every ball was in Cleveland's court.
The probability Cleveland manages 4 straight 9+ point wins in their 4 in 5 sequence (with the 1st vs Toronto already in the books) when they already bring 8 straight such results to it to begin with, is just simply statistically negligible (and while the Cavs opponents to this point have largely sucked fat ones, Philly & Atlanta sport winning percentages superior to them all). The point here being the moment they win a game by 8 pts or less, it's all but going to be an ATS loss (as a Fav) on their part.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
The length of any chase I usually like to keep at 3 games, but here it's potentially 4. So the starting bet is lower than usual.
Toronto +12.5 to win 100.
Also parlayed with Houston Under 191.5, and NYI/PHI Under 5.5
Last edited:
