CKR's 2007-08 Bowl Thread...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
OK fellas, another bowl season is here. It was a very profitable season, as I only lost a decent amount of money one week all season, while having several nice weeks.

My numbers held up pretty well for the most part, and let's see if we can't keep it rolling in the bowl season.

I was travelling yesterday and made Utah an 8-point favorite. My only bet in that game was 2H OVER 30 -105 and again at 29.5 flat. So a nice start there, as I could see the offenses start to loosen up as the second quarter progressed. Pretty fun game to watch, all in all.

Onto tonight, I urge all of you to check out the cappingthegame.com home page in the near future. I am going to be posting little write-ups on all of the 32 bowl games.

Here's tonight's - an except from our member articles. Anyone with ideas to improve that home page, feel free to mention to me/the other partners in this thread and we'll always look into any intriguing ideas...



'The Owls made the final step in a building project for legendary head coach Howard Schnellenberger - a bowl game as their reward for winning the Sun Belt Conference title. Meanwhile, Memphis had a nice late-season surge in Conference USA and earned a bid as that league´s representative in this contest.

It is the lone bowl game on Friday. Both teams have a lot in common, including high-octane offenses and below-average kicking units. It should be a close and entertaining game.

I am going to lay the points in this one. Florida Atlantic has one of the Sun Belt´s best offenses. It also leads the nation in turnover margin, with 33 takeaways to just 14 turnovers. That gets them over the hump and my choice to get the money in this one.'


Of course, the line is 3.5 now. I would not advocate laying that. One guy I am using is dealing 3 and I think he's heard that Billy Walters and his beards are going to be on the 'dog' tonight, so I would expect this line to come down. If you like the favorite, then sit and wait for a bit - you might get to lay 2.5 or 3 by kickoff.

The play: Florida Atlantic -3 for a small bet.


I'll be posting plays for the other four games this weekend a little later.

Cheers to all, and GL tonight...

:really_happy:
 
With you on Florida Atlantic tonight, got it in early in the week at -2.5.

Good luck this bowl season CKR.
 
Hutch: Not treating it early might keep me on crutches longer than hoped. I broke it Friday at noon and didn't get x-rays until Monday about the same time and no cast til mid-evening. And after flying home yesterday, it swelled up pretty good. I'm on some anti-inflammatories and getting along a litte better, but it's awfully purple.

BC: I like UNDER a little bit. Howard is 4-0 in bowl games and I expect it to come down to turnovers either way. If there are a bunch, then there will be more scoring. If there aren't, then UNDER looks real solid.

GL all... this line should drop at some point.
 
1-0 on posted so far this season...

Not really understanding the BYU/UCLA line. The more I looked at it, the more I scratched my head. I had BYU in the regular season and I'm convinced I had the right side, despite the loss. BYU late turnover and subsequent Bruin score made the final margin 10, but it obviously was a painful loss, as BYU didn't bother to show up in Tulsa the next week and got embarassed... but the Mormons have since won nine straight. UCLA is a lower-tier team with no coach and a bunch of seniors likely living it up in Vegas. I was shocked to see it go down from 6.5 and gladly added to my big bet because I think this is as good as they get...

The plays: BYU -5 for a big bet and BYU -6 for a little more...

GL!
 
Jimbo: No value in UNDER at this point and I think BYU gets ahead by so many that there might be cheap points late that pushes it over...

Galt - Nope. Not scared one bit. The line opened lower. It's been bet up.
 
Well... I still say BYU is the better team despite UCLA having some success up front and running the ball.

I got to lay 3 even money at the half, so I went ahead and did so.

Not necessarily a chase for a bad basketball day... but assuming Vandy loses, Valpo wins... then if I can get BYU the cash and Ohio U the cash late... I'll break about even...

The play: BYU -3 (even money) for a medium bet.
 
Rough go of it with the BYU mess.

I like Skip Holtz's record as a dog at ECU. They have played a tougher non-con schedule and should be well-prepared as anyone to handle Boise on both sides of the ball. This is a big statement game for C-USA, and Reno's awful loss last night might prove just how sorry the WAC was this season.

It's tough to tell how anyone will handle Honolulu; I would say Boise might have the edge there because they go once every two years and have already been this fall. But this is a lot of points to give a capable defense.

THe play: ECU +10.5 for a medium bet and moneyline very small.

GL!
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Rough go of it with the BYU mess.

I like Skip Holtz's record as a dog at ECU. They have played a tougher non-con schedule and should be well-prepared as anyone to handle Boise on both sides of the ball. This is a big statement game for C-USA, and Reno's awful loss last night might prove just how sorry the WAC was this season.

It's tough to tell how anyone will handle Honolulu; I would say Boise might have the edge there because they go once every two years and have already been this fall. But this is a lot of points to give a capable defense.

THe play: ECU +10.5 for a medium bet and moneyline very small.

GL!
Click to expand...

Nice play here that we both agree on...:cheers:
 
Decided to lay off this Detroit Bowl until the half... I leaned dog... But didn't like that I missed the '10'...

Went ahead and bet Central Michigan +3 EVEN in the second half for a medium bet.

Just looks too much to me. I see the Chips rallying and that stupid-ass punt on 4th and 1 in the second quarter (and the not calling of time-outs)... could mean he was trying to make things happen AFTER halftime...

GL!
 
Central Michigan's D needs to show up, the offense definitely has, got C Michigan +9, GL on your bet Rex
 
Nice hit on CMU 2H! Might have been the easiest play of the Bowl season.. Looking for your upcoming plays with enthusiasm.
 
BC - Here ya go.

Been looking forward to the Holiday Bowl (as I always do) since they announced the matchup.

Arizona State is well-coached and will be well-prepared. Texas has a nice little run in the bowls going, and for that I give Mack Brown a lot of credit. After he started his Texas career losing 3 of 4 (I believe), he sought outside help, from Bobby Bowden, among others, and more coaches who have had bowl success.

Both teams are similar - slow starters, strong finishers. It should be a close game, so points are always nice to have. If Arizona State gets to plus-3, then I will give the Sun Devils a serious look at that price - if only for a small bet.

But as of now, no play for me. Stay tuned for first-half thoughts, second-half thoughts and a possible halftime bet later on.

GL!
 
i wasn't a fan of taking +2.5 but i was afraid of the line moving against me. i guess i deserve it if texas wins by a fg. if i weren't traveling tonight, i'd definitely look into playing the halfs. gl w/ your decisions...
 
Did the wrong thing laying off Friday, as I made TCU higher and Oregon State much higher.

The OSU game was a tough spot, as I said in several other threads... Maryland has robbed me blind each of the last two bowl games, and I made Oregon State 12 but could not lay 5 because of that - one of the few times I will totally scrap my nummber.

I was looking for 3 flat on TCU and it never showed up for me (missed the original 3)... so had to pass that one as well.

Never had an opinion on BC/Michigan State. Funny, though, gun to my head I liked BC to win but MSU to cover...

Onto today...

UConn had a great season but I like Wake to out-UConn UConn in the Car Care Bowl. Made it 4.5, so...

THe play: Wake -2 for a medium bet.

Can Central Florida establish Smith against the tough Bulldog defense? I think so, but MSU is playing a virtual home game, and the SEC is much classier than C-USA. Lean to Bulldogs, but no bet right now. Will look to MSU small if I can take 3.5 or 4.

No opinion on A&M and Penn State as far as the side. But neither offense is too explosive and both have solid defenses. Total looks too high to me.

THe play: UNDER 52 in San Antonio for a medium bet.

GL fellas!
 
Think I'll be joining the bandwagon on Wake. Think they are the better team here, but it is close. Edsell and Grobe are also close. I personally made the line -1 for UConn, but Wake was playing in a slightly better conference. Pick the winner and they'll cover in this one.
 
Add in the fact that the ACC has never lost this bowl and the Big East has never won it.

Under 46' also looks tempting, but side looks better.
 
Good luck guys also on WAKE, thinking playing at home is huge in a bowl game especially one vs a team that is not road tested and young like UCONN
 
The unders will come in now because we have real D's on the field and not popcorn D's anymore.

NIce hit on Wake, made us sweat but came through with a 2td margin, Unreal , cant they just do it the easy way!
 
Nice work yesterday; had to hit the brakes in the San Antonio bowl but it worked out okay.

To tonight: You have two mediocre 6-6 teams playing in the Shreveport bowl, so anytime that happens, it's always good to take points. How can Bama lay 4.5 to anyone despite not having won a game in about 8 weeks?

I'll take a stab with the Buffaloes now.

The play: Colorado +4.5 small.

GL!
 
Counselor - no ass tapping. Date-deal (or whatever it was) didn't work out.

I changed my messenger this morning...

"Betting against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl is like betting on the Taliban".

Got some laughs. It was for amusement purposes only, of course.

I do have the Flyboys. Does anyone really need to ask why?

The play: Air Force +4.5 for a medium bet.

Oregon is horrid these days but not trying to lay 6 with a South Florida team that showed alarming inconsistency in the last six weeks.


GT has a bulldog of a D-Coordinator as its interim coach here but Fresno coming off the wins over K-State and NM State to end the season and its offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late, and the defense is capable of containing the pedestrian Jacket attack.

The play: Fresno +6 for a medium bet.

Not sure where they got off betting Kentucky up to a 10.5 favorite (it was there for about 90 seconds the other day) but I've noticed in the last few minutes that there has been some serious Florida State poundage (Walters?)

Makes sense. Even with a depleted team, there is still 5-star talent on the Tallahassee sideline, and now they have the "us-against-the-world" card to play. Trouble for Big Blue.

The play: Florida State +10.5 for a big bet.

Interested in seeing the first half of the Indiana/OSU game. If IU ever gets bet up to 7 I will be on them small. I see they have been bet up to 6 now; and I am slightly intrigued in the Hoosiers at this price but not sure if they can ever stop OSU's offense. Passing for now.

Where are there going to be 46 points scored in Atlanta tonight? No shot unless we see multiple ot's...

THe play: UNDER 46 for a medium bet in the Peach Bowl...

GL!
 
Nice number on FSU, Rexy.

Greek now showing the line as UK -7. When would you consider playing UK? I would think anything under 7 would be a good bet. FSU is just thin as hell for this game. Also helps that UK will have alot of fans in Nashville.
 
Thanks fellas.

RJ - I was considering a small bet on UK if it would have gotten to six. Looks like for once I woulda gotten it right, lol...

Thanks Timmy. I'll get in touch with you via PM or e-mail tomorrow after I get back to CR.

Counselor - GL today.

8-4 now this season on posted plays with an ECU moneyline winner as well. Rolling good here heading into today's games...

Wisconsin does so many things well and as much as I don't like their team, their bowl consistency is tough to ignore. Passing on this one, though, as I made Tennessee a 4.5 favorite. Would lay the 2 or 2.5 with a gun to the head.

Arkansas getting all the love, and with McFadden looking like he couldn't cheat his way out of eligibility (anyone ever think about him doing it on purpose so he wouldn't get injured today?)... they are getting all the money. I've never seen a 2.5 pop up but if it did, I would lay it small with Mizzou...

Back in a moment with the rest...
 
Final game for Lloyd Carr and this is as healthy as Mishitgan has been since the Appalachian State game. This offense is also a version of that spread, but the last time UM saw a spread, it was the Illinois version, and they handled it pretty well. This offense might be the best one they have seen but all reports I am getting out of Ann Arbor tell me that the Wolves really want to win this outgoing game for Carr. With the Gators having somehow losing three times this season, it's tough to envision them actually laying DD's, even in this virtual home game in Orlando. I'll bite on the Wolves to stay competitive.

The play: Mishitgan +11 for a medium bet.

Texas Tech woefully outclasses Virginia. I'm a little scared because UVa seems to always keep games close. But the ACC has no kind of passing offense that resembles Graham Harrell and Mike Leach's; and I can't see Virginia scoring enough to stay inside the number.

The play: Tejas Tech -5.5 for a big bet.

I will pilfer this writeup from RJ's bowl thread...

'The Illini torched Penn State for 216 on the ground, ripped off 289 against Wisconsin, controlled the tempo and stood toe to toe with Ohio State en route to piling up 260 on the top-ranked total defense in the country and over the rest of November hit up lesser defenses for 324, 448 and 321 in rushing alone. They have a future high draft pick at tailback and a physical weapon at wide receiver in Arrelious Benn over which SC and every other team drooled last fall and will continue to drool for the next two years. Illinois has athletes who should be expected to make plays against any defense.
The second notion to be dispelled is that USC is "playing as well as any team in the country" or is the "hottest team" and other superlatives along the lines of "they’re the best team after all"....

Exactly. Why all the USC love? Don't be surprised if the Zooker finds a way to win this game outright as well.

The play: Illinois +14 for a big bet. Illinois +455 ML for a small bet.

I lean to Jorja tonight but I am going with HG's call on the UNDER here, albeit small - at least until halftime.

I should be around most of the day so I will be posting all halftime thoughts and lines, so stay tuned...

GL!
 
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Horses - You can call him whatever you want to but he was never given a fair shake at Florida and Illinois made a great hire by getting him. He is one of the best, if not THE best, recruiter in all of college football. Like I told my father, it would only be a matter of time before they were consistently competitive in the Big 10. Turns out it was only two years.

Also, I've called him that since he was at Florida.

Hate his game day coaching if you want to; but they will be more prepared to play going in there than USC is. All he has to do is relegate some of his "weaker" duties to assistants, lol...

I'll be back at 5 for the Rose Bowl Musberger drinking game In-Game...wheeeeeeee...
 
Musberger is the Millenium Cosell:cheers: Agree with you Rex, Zook never got a fair shake at Florida because of the alumni love for Spurrier, no doubt one of the best recruiters in the country.
 
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